Hopefully gman or cheif will weigh in with their comments on the latest climax indicator interpretations (and John will post some of his MetaStock CLX charts).
Below are the updated CLX and CLXpp offsets due to fall off in the coming week, with the values falling off designated in a red font, first the Dow. The values posted this past week are "unofficial" CLX and CLXpp numbers for the Dow. String of favorable 30 day offsets for most of next week, 10 day offsets favorable early next week.
The Dow CLX 10 DMA remains above the 30 DMA, with both now rising, a good sign. Note how the 10 DMA bounced from the zero line.
The Dow AYDIS (CLX minus CLXpp) MACD variant, idea stolen from "Joanne", is again above its blue signal line. From my limited experience in observing the behavior of this indicator, it appears prices perform best when the signal line is above zero... if the MACD indicator can remain above zero a bit longer, the signal line will follow.
The NDX CLX and CLXpp offsets due to fall off in the coming week are also designated with a red font. The 10 day offsets are mostly favorable for the coming week, while two particularly unfavorable 30 day offsets are due to evaporate Thursday and Friday of next week.
The NDX CLX 10 day MA (blue curve) briefly exceeded its 30 day MA (black curve) a week or so ago, then fell under again, but has turned up again. The NDX is finding difficulty in gaining traction, and will continue to do so until the 10 day CLX MA can remain above its 30 day MA for more than a day or two. Note how the NDX CLX 30 day MA has managed to remain, on-balance, above the zero line for the majority of 2006.
The NDX AYDIS MACD indicator managed to scratch its way above zero again Friday, but is having a difficult time finding any traction for a sustained up move. The black signal line will likely need to crawl above, and remain above zero before NDX prices can undergo a sustainable price rally.
The SMH CLX and CLXpp offsets due to fall off next week, again highlighted in red. A mixed bag with the SMH 10 day and 30 day offsets in play for next week, but the bias is toward unfavorable offsets.
The SMH CLX 10 day MA pulled the same trick as the NDX a week or so ago, by nominally exceeding its 30 day MA, fell back under to regroup, has turned back up above zero, but needs to get back above its 30 day MA to spark a sustainable rally in this index.
The SMH AYDIS MACD has been congesting around its zero line for sometime now, with a bias below zero, as its signal line is still in negative territory. As with MCOs, congestive patterns about the zero line usually, but not always, resolve in "falling out of the zone", as opposed to breaking to the upside. Time will tell how this congestive pattern resolves.
The first three days next week going into Weird Wollie Wednesday will likely set the tone for the action going into OPEX week. As cheif says, da boyz will likely set themselves up for the OPEX payday, and we'll likely know if the paycheck will be from the short or long side by mid-next week.