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hiker

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Reply with quote  #1 
some highlights to add to the most recent "charts of interest" thread below...note I have posted here about DECK since the rally picked up after the washout visible on the chart:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=deck&sid=0&o_symb=deck&freq=2&time=20

note declining volume trend on the weekly as this rally ages, and the upper reaches of resistance are tested, and as the April 27 earnings date nears...a volume by price chart is helpful for the assessment of potential overhead supply. Note the weekly chart in this chart gallery -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?DECK


DECK - 30% eps growth
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):30.60%

zero debt, small float of 10M shares, +100% institutional ownership...who provides the supply of stock to buyers when the inst own all of the float?..positive influence on the supply and demand dynamics that control stock price...short interest provided here already in another thread

DECK makes the UGGS line of footwear for worldwide distribution, ditto for TEVA brand footwear and sandals, as well as other footwear

walk thru the 3 angles of ascent concept during a 20-30 year price chart...we are now in the 2nd or 3rd ascent depending on whether you count one or two of the 15% angle ascent followed by the steep ascent

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday): 487.47M
Enterprise Value (5-Apr-06)3: 432.63M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 15.80
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-07) 1: 15.71
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.21
Price/Sales (ttm): 1.84
Price/Book (mrq): 2.73
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.63
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 7.259

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31-Dec
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): 31-Dec-05

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 12.03%
Operating Margin (ttm): 21.57%

Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 18.57%
Return on Equity (ttm): 19.99%

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 264.76M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 21.44
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 22.60%
Gross Profit (ttm): 111.52M
EBITDA (ttm): 59.60M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 31.84M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 2.48
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 30.60%

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 53.25M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 4.272
Total Debt (mrq): 0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0
Current Ratio (mrq): 4.862
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 14.282

Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 29.61M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 24.19M


View Financials (provided by EDGAR Online):
Income Statement - Balance Sheet
Cash Flow


ADVERTISEMENT

TRADING INFORMATION


Stock Price History
Beta: 5.06
52-Week Change3: 15.10%
S&P500 52-Week Change3: 10.54%
52-Week High (31-Mar-06)3: 41.10
52-Week Low (02-Nov-05)3: 16.92
50-Day Moving Average3: 36.02
200-Day Moving Average3: 28.13

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 341,565
Average Volume (10 day)3: 278,000
Shares Outstanding: 12.46M
Float: 10.56M
% Held by Insiders4: 15.11%
% Held by Institutions4: 110.30%
Shares Short (as of 10-Mar-06)3: 3.53M
Short Ratio (as of 10-Mar-06)3: 9
Short % of Float (as of 10-Mar-06)3: 32.60%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 3.81M

Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate5: N/A
Forward Annual Dividend Yield5: N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3: N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: NaN%
5 Year Average Dividend Yield5: N/A
Payout Ratio5: N/A
Dividend Date3: N/A
Ex-Dividend Date5: N/A
Last Split Factor (new per old)2: N/A
Last Split Date3: N/



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #2 
note whether this week's action can take DECK over last week's $41.23 intraday high...the highest DECK has been during this entire rally from the washout low several mos. ago....earnings is coming up.

no predictions here...but I remain long.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck
minimum risk to $30-35 at least, note the bullish support line on the Point and Figure chart which traditionally represents the measure of minimum risk..in this case a move back to the red downtrend line, that DECK is now above, could be a minimum expectation of price behavior during a consolidation or parabolic selloff event


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #3 
new rally high today following the open...let's see if a new closing high for this multi-month rally comes about today:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?deck


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 
earnings rel on April 27th -

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060413/20060413005104.html?.v=1

resistance has a common price point in recent weeks...note the declining volume trend as the earnings release approaches:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck

recent test of support held above the $37.64-38 zone visible on daily chart

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
17-Apr-06 39.82 40.34 39.31 39.79 152,700 39.79
13-Apr-06 39.04 39.73 39.00 39.60 89,300 39.60
12-Apr-06 39.76 39.76 38.51 39.16 211,700 39.16
11-Apr-06 41.34 42.00 39.60 39.67 226,300 39.67
10-Apr-06 39.97 41.06 39.80 40.69 258,400 40.69
7-Apr-06 40.53 40.98 39.78 40.12 232,200 40.12
6-Apr-06 39.94 41.23 39.88 40.68 320,900 40.68
5-Apr-06 39.67 40.15 39.39 40.04 179,300 40.04
4-Apr-06 38.76 39.80 38.50 39.11 264,300 39.11
3-Apr-06 40.63 40.95 38.64 38.98 362,000 38.98
31-Mar-06 40.07 41.10 39.58 40.54 246,100 40.54
30-Mar-06 39.67 40.39 39.17 39.93 531,000 39.93
29-Mar-06 38.43 39.71 38.22 39.71 186,100 39.71



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
4/19

testing the former $42.00 high of this multi-month rally from $16.92 -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck

today's intraday high as of 11:55 et is $42.14




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #6 
4/20 -

new 52-week high today, and testing an area of interest from late 2004 & early 2005 price action in which the historic high resides:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=deck&sid=0&o_symb=deck&freq=1&time=9

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck

earnings rel is next week..

manage risk before seeking reward, is something I heard fellow poster, PIK, say a few years ago and it applies to many circumstances including trade decisions as an earnings release date approaches. Holding any short or long position into the actual release is a gamble, in my opinion, and position size must be considered in that light. In addition, the risk is always present that a company may pre-announce forward guidance...it has been known to happen.

At the moment, I have only 20% of my original position size remaining for the reasons stated above.

The reality of this current price action is this could be simply some of the high short interest lightening up on position size and gambler personalities betting on the long side ahead of an earnings date...er is next week for DECK.


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 
4/27

DECK releases mixed forward guidance tonight:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060427/earns_deckers.html?.v=1


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
7/17 intraday -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?DECK

note the weekly chart and how long support has been maintained by the $33.74 to 34 zone...the 200-day sma resides below

horizontal price basing behavior in the works since the May decline? Will a downside move below the basing price zones occur on subsequent tests of $33.74-34 zone?

PnF chart remains in a bearish pattern...and some significant price channel resistance easily drawn on the weekly chart is in play, so support holding on subsequent tests may be important.

upcoming earnings release date not yet announced -

http://www.deckers.com/investors/EventList.asp?compid=91148


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
7/18

earnings to be released on July 27 -

http://www.deckers.com/investors/PressReleaseText.asp?compid=91148&releaseID=883147

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3:333,978
Average Volume (10 day)3:245,057
Shares Outstanding:12.52M
Float:10.93M
% Held by Insiders4:12.64%
% Held by Institutions4:86.80%
Shares Short (as of 12-Jun-06)3:2.24M
Short Ratio (as of 12-Jun-06)3:7.1
Short % of Float (as of 12-Jun-06)3:20.50%
Shares Short (prior month)3:2.41M



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #10 
7/20 intraday

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck

reaching a multi-day high in early day action..testing the 50-day sma

see daily chart for the activity in recent weeks between $37-38


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #11 
7/27 after hours -

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060727/earns_deckers_outdoor.html?.v=2


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #12 
7/28 intraday -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck

42 -44.99 is a resistance zone visible on the PnF and weekly charts

double top PnF breakout alert today

up 13% today on last night's earnings report

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #13 

8/14

 

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?DECK

 

note the new price channel on the daily chart

 

testing a horizontal support zone easily visible on the PnF chart

 

double top in play visible on the weekly chart?


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #14 
9/12 intraday update -

up about 8% this week and 6% today so far..historic high is once again being approached:




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #15 
9/25 intraday -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?deck

49.12 historic high is nearby

note daily volume trend

note the weekly RSI downtrend line vs. current weekly RSI value

Friday article -

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06092203.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #16 
10/19

26-Oct-06  DECK Earnings announcement







UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES HISTORY
 
DateResearch FirmActionFromTo
17-Oct-06Robert W. BairdInitiated
Neutral
12-Oct-06Wedbush MorganDowngradeBuyHold
13-Sep-06Matrix ResearchDowngradeBuyHold
9-Jun-06Matrix ResearchDowngradeStrong BuyBuy
16-Feb-06Nollenberger CapitalInitiated
Neutral
11-Jan-06Lazard CaptialUpgradeHoldBuy
28-Oct-05Lazard FreresDowngradeBuyHold
28-Oct-05RBC Capital MktsDowngradeOutperformSector Perform
28-Oct-05DA DavidsonDowngradeBuyNeutral
3-Jun-05Monarch ResearchDowngradeBuyHold
13-Apr-05RBC Capital MktsUpgradeSector PerformOutperform
31-Jan-05Lazard FreresInitiated
Buy
26-Jan-05Piper JaffrayUpgradeMarket PerformOutperform
26-Jan-05DA DavidsonUpgradeNeutralBuy
7-Jan-05First AlbanyDowngradeBuyNeutral



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #17 
2/9/07 closing basis

Earnings call is Feb. 27th..see news links below the chart

lifetime weekly chart...black line is weekly closing price -

btw, note the 34-week ema would have kept the trader in the entire advance since the 2005 low, once price moved above the 15-week sma ...

fyi, median upside target by analysts is $63.00 per Yahoo finance, achieved this week for the first time...RW Baird upgrade on Feb 5th stated - "He raised the company's price target to $80 from $47".



Deckers Outdoor Earnings Call scheduled for Tue, Feb 27
CCBN (Fri, Feb 9)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation to Broadcast Review of Fiscal 2006 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Financial Results over the Internet
Business Wire (Fri, Feb 9)
Monday's Small-Cap Winners & Losers
at TheStreet.com (Mon, Feb 5)
Upgrades Send Footwear Shares Soaring
AP (Mon, Feb 5)
Deckers Outdoor upgraded by Robert W. Baird
Briefing.com (Mon, Feb 5)
Why You Shouldn't Sell
at Motley Fool (Thu, Feb 1)


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #18 
3/16 intraday

price action is stalling for now, near the new historic highs

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?deck


Dismissed As A Fad, Uggs Sheepskin Boots Have Staying Power
Investor's Business Daily (Thu 7:00pm)

Decision Time for Deckers Outdoor
at Motley Fool (Wed, Mar 14)
Get Ready for the Fall?
at Motley Fool (Mon, Mar 12)
Stumbling Over Deckers
at Motley Fool (Mon, Mar 12)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation to Present at the Bank of America Consumer Conference
Business Wire (Mon, Mar 12)
Madden Strolls Uphill
at Motley Fool (Mon, Mar 5)



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #19 
6/6

- Deckers Outdoor Corp.(DECK) CEO Martinez told CNBC in an interview today that the shoe industry is “moving into a sustainable, green approach.” Martinez said the company’s Green Toe shoes, made of organic materials including bamboo and natural latex rubber, deteriorate into the earth a few months after they are discarded.


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hiker

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Reply with quote  #20 
7/13

Q2 earnings release schedule appears to not yet be announced -

http://www.deckers.com/investors/EventList.asp?compid=91148

weekly




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hiker

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Reply with quote  #21 
12/6





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hiker

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Reply with quote  #22 
update of daily chart





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