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Reply with quote  #1 
Which one is the right one

SMH


SOX



Semi Equipment raw unweighted



Semi Manufacturing raw un weighted

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #2 

A lot of bearish patterns cracking, yet still many stocks acting well.

Amazing strength in many semi's with intc soooo weak..

 

If charts don't have pedictive power, then why look at them?

 



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Reply with quote  #3 
"If charts don't have pedictive power, then why look at them?"

Cause they are entertaining and sometimes pretty?

Do you believe they are predictive? If so, then how?
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Doug

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Reply with quote  #4 

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye


Do you believe they are predictive? If so, then how?[/QUOTE]

Definitely,

They are a partial picture of the human mind.

They provide support and resistance levels

They provide target areas

These levels and patterns have predictable reactions. 


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Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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Reply with quote  #5 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye


Do you believe they are predictive? If so, then how?[/QUOTE]

Definitely,

They are a partial picture of the human mind.

They provide support and resistance levels

They provide target areas

These levels and patterns have predictable reactions.



predict >verb state that (a specified event) will happen in the future.
-DERIVATIVES predictive >adjective predictor >noun.
-ORIGIN Latin praedicere 'make known beforehand, declare'.

I agree with the first 3 statements as they are based on what has already taken place. I would replace the word predictable, with reliable, in the 4th statement.

By definition, prediction mandates something will always happen under a given set of circumstances, it is an absolute term. I know this isn't the reality with trading and charting. Nothing works all the time.  Reliable is more flexible, and fits what we are doing better.


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #6 
Hey Hawk

I first wanted to thank you publicly for your contributions to Technical Watch.

Now, I will assume that you're referring to the difference in the chart patterns between the SMH (which isn't posted but is titled) and that of the SOX.

The answer to your question "which one is the right one?" is neither one as they are both weighted indices and where the main difference you see between the two can be pointed to two stocks, Intel and Broadcom, where INTC has a much higher weighting in the SMH and BRCM has a higher weighting in the SOX.

A list of the SOX components, and their weightings, are shown directly below - with the SMH, and its component weightings, just below that.

Keep up the good work.

Fib

*******************************************

Altera Corp. ALTR 19.20 19.33 3.39%



Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT 18.90 18.71 3.28%


Advanced Micro Devices
AMD 41.06 40.25 7.05%


Broadcom Corporation
BRCM 68.74 68.39 11.99%


Freescale Semiconductor, Inc.
FSL'B 25.08 25.15 4.41%


Infineon Technologies AG
IFX 9.19 9.16 1.61%


Intel Corp.
INTC 21.11 21.06 3.69% 2/3/2005 0.08

KLA-Tencor Corp.
KLAC 52.17 51.96 9.11%


Linear Technology Corp.
LLTC 36.25 36.05 6.32%


Marvel Technology Group
MRVL 68.04 67.36 11.80%


Micron Technology, Inc.
MU 14.76 14.78 2.59%


Maxim Integrated Products, Inc.
MXIM 39.89 39.88 6.99%


National Semiconductor Corp.
NSM 27.46 27.50 4.82%


Novellus Systems, Inc.
NVLS 28.39 28.40 4.98%


STMicroelectronics NV
STM 17.94 17.97 3.15%


Teradyne, Inc.
TER 16.85 16.95 2.97%


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSM 10.17 10.18 1.78%


Texas Instruments, Inc.
TXN 29.91 29.95 5.25%


Xilinx, Inc.
XLNX 27.30 27.58 4.83%








***************************************





Company Name                 Symbol                 # of shares                 % Weight        
        Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.                 AMD                 4.00                 1.96%        
        Altera Corporation                 ALTR                 6.00                 3.51%        
        Amkor Technology Inc                 AMKR                 2.00                 0.29%        
        Analog Devices, Inc.                 ADI                 6.00                 6.84%        
        Applied Materials Inc                 AMAT                 26.00                 13.75%        
        Atmel Corp                 ATML                 8.00                 0.82%        
        Broadcom Corp                 BRCM                 2.00                 2.04%        
        Intel Corporation                 INTC                 30.00                 22.05%        
        KLA-Tencor Corporation                 KLAC                 3.00                 4.22%        
        Linear Technology Corporation                 LLTC                 5.00                 4.79%        
        LSI Logic Corporation                 LSI                 5.00                 0.89%        
        Maxim Integrated Products Inc                 MXIM                 5.00                 6.33%        
        Micron Technology Inc.                 MU                 9.00                 3.77%        
        National Semiconductor Corporation                 NSM                 3.00                 3.17%        
        Novellus Systems Inc                 NVLS                 2.00                 1.69%        
        SanDisk Corporation                 SNDK                 1.00                 1.59%        
        Teradyne, Inc.                 TER                 3.00                 1.44%        
        Texas Instruments Incorporated                 TXN                 22.00                 15.73%        
        Vitesse Semiconductor Corp                 VTSS                 3.00                 0.31%        
        Xilinx Inc                 XLNX                 5.00                 4.25%


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Reply with quote  #7 

thanks Fib....

I fixed it.  These all just struck me as so different, with SOX showing the most weakness.  The unweighted indexes  tell the real story.
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Doug

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug

Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye


Do you believe they are predictive? If so, then how?[/QUOTE]

Definitely,

They are a partial picture of the human mind.

They provide support and resistance levels

They provide target areas

These levels and patterns have predictable reactions.



By definition, prediction mandates something will always happen under a given set of circumstances, it is an absolute term. I know this isn't the reality with trading and charting. Nothing works all the time.  Reliable is more flexible, and fits what we are doing better.


 

Hawkeye

Actually you did a good job of explaining yourself and pehaps we are only caught up on semantics.

 

Here is the definition of predict from websters (there is nothing that states "will happen"

 

to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason

 

I think that fits pretty well with what we are doing.

 

 

If you drink coffee most every morning, your behavior is predictable even though there are mornings that you don't drink it....

 

That is what I see in the charts, of course there is no guarantee but to have indexes and equitys move to places that we see well in advance as often as we do, goes well beyond chance and is therefor predictable..

 

cheers.....


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Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #9 
Quote:
The unweighted indexes tell the real story

This might help as well.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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Reply with quote  #10 
I copied the following out of my 1969 Websters for you.





I agree ....it is just semantics....

Thanks for the debate.

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #11 

Ok

I will use the charts to forecast from now on and not to predict!

 

I have gotten into trouble before using the word predict so I think I now stand corrected..... It often seems to be associated with the mystic or divine and that never was my intention.....


__________________
Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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Doug

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Reply with quote  #12 

but then again,,,, they all seem to be connected....

Pehaps we could start our own word

umm,,, maybe "foredict"

cheers

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/forecast

 

 

 


__________________
Charts are my opinion only and not a recomendation to buy or sell. I am long or short and flip
at any given moment....do your own dd. cheers!
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