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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Time to start a new thread on this subject.

The previous thread can be found at http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=2641644

**************************************

Quote:
If this is actually the preferred count, the current Fibonacci price targets are as follows:

Intraday price basis from the March top to the May bottom x .618 = $962.28
Close only basis from the March top to the May bottom x .618 = $945.70

The High/Low/Close length of Minute wave A equaling Minute wave C = $949.00
The close only length of Minute wave A equaling Minute Wave C = $948.90

Taking an average of these price level targets would give a projected price target for the completion of Minor wave B at $951.47.


Having hit $950.00 intraday on Thursday, along with an outside range day, it would appear that Minor wave B is now complete based on the previous Fibonacci calculations given on June 22nd.

The updated chart below presents the current confines of the expected triangle configuration using this ongoing consideration.

Minor wave C of this same triangle should produce the greatest amount of downside pressure on the precious metals stocks which, in turn, should present the next (selective) buying opportunity for the sector in general.

Downside price objectives for Minor wave C of Intermediate wave (4) are as follows:

Intraday price basis from the May bottom to the July top x .618 = $885.98
Close only basis from the May bottom to the July top x .618 = $887.42

Taking an average of these price level targets would give a projected price target for the completion of Minor wave C at  $886.70.

Any move below the Minute wave B intraday low in June of $859.60 would call the triangle idea into question.

Carry on.

Fib






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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
The updated daily gold chart, through Friday's close, continues to keep the door open on the triangle idea in spite of the fact that Minor wave B extended $20 over the Fibonacci targets previously posted, and Minor wave C has done the same during the recent heavy sell off.

Based on the total price structure of the daily pattern from the March highs, the best observation is that both Minor wave A and Minor wave B have been three wave affairs, and not of an "impulsive" nature...helping to support the idea of a corrective larger degree wave in force.

Current price levels are within previous June 2008 pattern support, and along with the PM BPI data now at 3 year lows, we should see some sort of sharp bounce higher near term whether we're dealing with an Elliott triangle, a complex A-B-C-X-A-B-C (where Minor wave B is actually Minor wave X), or even an ugly looking Elliott flat. Depending on the vigor of such an event, this should hopefully provide better clarity of the current pattern, on how this all interacts with the US Dollar's decisive break above its 200 day EMA to close out last week.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
In what has turned out to be a problematic (Elliott related) challenge with all of the financial turbulence of the last two months, submitted below is probably the best overall interpretation of the daily gold count without too much in the way of substantive analysis. Hopefully in the next several weeks some clarity will result to attain a better picture of where we might be in the bigger scheme of things.

Fib






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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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