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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Time to start a new thread on this subject.

The previous thread can be found at http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=2332048

****************************************
Having overthrown both the 3rd wave trend channel and the 5th wave equality objective of $977 by less than 3%, the "out of the blue" breakdown in the price of gold in mid March highly suggests that Minor wave 3 is now complete and we're currently in the middle of Minor wave 4 of Intermediate wave (3).

Since the longer term price pattern has shown a consistency of triangular patterns in the fourth position since the first quarter of 2006, the preferred forecast is for this harmony of pattern structure to continue during this pause in the uptrend. With the high 5 day RSI "oversold" divergent readings we saw at the end of March, along with the price pattern finding initial support at the previous 4 wave triangle in February, I have gone ahead and marked what might be the lower range of this triangle idea on the chart in red.

Of course, there are always one or two "alternate" ideas on how this may play out, but at this point, this would be the preferred consideration.

Additional updates will be made as needed or warranted.

Fib



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Whipsaw101

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Reply with quote  #2 
Dave is there any feasible alternate count that would put us in Primary {4} right now?

Thanks.........just trying to stay open minded and get in synch with Randy's Marjet Vane numbers on USD which show a positive divergence and a high probability of an IT Countertrend Rally imminent.

CW 
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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #3 
Below is a chart of the Market Vane gold bullish percentages versus end-of-day (EOD) spot gold prices, with an attempt to overlay Fib's EW count on to the bullish percentage 10 day MA. On an EOD spot gold price basis, the recent low for gold found support in the zone of its early February 2008 low.

However, the number of bulls was approximately ten points lower at the recent price lows than in February.



The $USD Market Vane bullish percentage, as pointed out be Chris, is diverging with $USD price. In the limited history of this data, a higher percentage of bulls accompanying lower $USD price lows typically results in a more meaningful $USD price rally than we've seen over the past couple of years.

It is evident the weak $USD has resulted in far higher USD commodity prices versus the same commodities priced in other stronger currencies.  So perhaps the potential of stronger US dollar in the coming months, as suggested by the survey data, may be accompanied by a correction in commodities as priced in US dollars?



Randy
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
Quote:
Dave is there any feasible alternate count that would put us in Primary {4} right now?

The first alternate count would have gold completing Intermediate wave 3 (as opposed to that of Minor degree), with Intermediate wave 2 ending as a flat last summer (where it's marked as Minor 2). Both the primary, and this alternate count, would compliment the internals.

Primary degree moves are generally more robust as to both time and price, so although feasible, it's not likely given the present fundamental background of this particular commodity.

Quote:
However, the number of bulls was approximately ten points lower at the recent price lows than in February.

This would help solidify the current labeling on the chart as being corrective, and with US Dollar data diverging, along with this same loose monetary policy background to support gold's appreciation status, this would allow the price pattern to chop around in what should wide swings considering the larger degree of count (that being a point in the pattern from where we move from a fundamental basis to that of an emotion one).

Keep in mind that 5th wave sequences are more emotionally based than that of 3rd wave fundamentals, and with all that is going on in the geopolitical world right now, there would seem to be a long list of "what ifs" out there to feed the this same emotionalism which, in turn, should then set the backdrop to fulfill the forecast suggested by this ongoing count (that of a series of 4's and 5's).

Fib






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"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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tooearly

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Reply with quote  #5 
Fib: it would seem that triangle base failed last week...throwever or failure to be determined next week...
you holding to that count?

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tooearly

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Reply with quote  #6 
I take back what i just wrote: looks like a complete 4rth wave is done here and up we go....
please correct me if this is wrong but i see c=.618 A
and lots of folks looking lower, myself included till i saw this


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #7 
First of all, I would like to sincerely apologize to "Too Early", as well as the members, for my lack of follow up to this ongoing exercise.

Hopefully this post update will have been worth the wait.

Since the April 14th post, several items of note have taken place where an adjustment is now needed to the count consideration presented at that time. These would include:

1) Since 4th waves tend to retrace .382 times the length of waves 1 through 3, the break below the April 1st lows of $887.80, along with the simultaneous break of RSI divergence noted at that time, suggested that a higher degree of trend was being traced out.

2) During this same accelerated move below the same $887.80 level, the Precious Metals Advance/Decline (shown below) also broke below its rising bottoms line, while at the same time, the XAU Advance/Decline held this same support. Something like this would not be taking place if we still had Minor wave 5 in front of us, though it would be consistent if Intermediate wave 5 was still yet to come.

3) One of the things that was anticipated during the gold's advance from June 2007 lows was that the price of silver would also rally in sympathy during the final 5th wave phases of this same advance. During the period of December 2007 through March 2008, silver did indeed rally sharply - moving up nearly $6.80 an ounce, or 50% in value. However, silver's decline during this correctional period has now tested its .50 retracement level, and this would be far deeper than what would be anticipated if Minor wave 5 was still yet to come.

So using these pieces of information as our guide, presented below is the updated adjusted count that would fit within the ongoing longer term count structure. Complimenting the current count is that the price of gold not only found snapback support at was the previous all time price highs, but the closing lows of $850.90 came within $1.59 of the .382 retracement level from the January 2007 lows to the recent March highs. This adjusted count would also help explain silver's explosive rise earlier this year as gold was finishing a series of 4's and 5's from the December 2007 lows, no less, conform to the bearish Precious Metals A/D line divergent structure seen going into the March highs.

So at this juncture, let's go with Intermediate wave 4 now in progress, with the anticipation of a larger triangle in process given the continuing high degree of monetary stimulus which drives the price of gold in the first place.

Fib






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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #8 
Updated through May 30th, and I have extended the lower boundary line of the previous 4th wave triangle where recent support was seen.

If we're going to see a full retracement take place to this lesser degree 4th wave, now would be the time for the pattern to break down to these same levels. However, if we do hold here, the triangle outlined in orange will probably turn out to be the current correctional sequence.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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tooearly

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Reply with quote  #9 
"now would be the time for the pattern to break down to these same levels"
which levels : i couldnt follw that
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #10 
Quote:
"now would be the time for the pattern to break down to these same levels"
which levels : i couldn't follow that

That would be the level of the 4th wave of one lesser degree at around the $800.00 level.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #11 
Quote:
However, if we do hold here, the triangle outlined in orange will probably turn out to be the current correctional sequence.

The updated chart through June 20th shows that the lower boundary outlined on 5/31 was indeed maintained and this would support the continued triangular outlook and labeling shown below: Minute wave C up of Minor wave B of Intermediate wave 4.

If this is actually the preferred count, the current Fibonacci price targets are as follows:

Intraday price basis from the March top to the May bottom x .618 = $962.28
Close only basis from the March top to the May bottom x .618 = $945.70

The High/Low/Close length of Minute wave A equaling Minute wave C = $949.00
The close only length of Minute wave A equaling Minute Wave C = $948.90

Taking an average of these price level targets would give a projected price target for the completion of Minor wave B at $951.47.

Any move below the B wave lows of the second week of June would invalidate this short term count consideration, with any move above the declining tops line shown in very light gray adding weight that we continue to be "on target". Any continued move above the $960.00 level would suggest an Elliott "Flat" in progress which should challenge the all time highs.

Let's see how it goes.

Fib








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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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