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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Time to start a new thread on this subject.

The previous thread can be found at http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=1952321

**********************************************
Quote:
The natural 4th wave retracement calculation is .382 times the length of wave iii which comes out to $772.98.

The intraday lows of the preferred 4th wave correctional pattern came in at $773.40 on November 20th.

Wave "A" of the current triangle structure took 8 trading days, wave "B" took 5 trading days, and if consistent, the current 3 day "C" wave decline ended on Friday. Based on this, wave v should be off and running to the upside by the end of next week.

We'll see how it goes.

Fib





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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Now that we have what looks to be a fully completed triangle, next week should provide some fireworks to the upside.

In any event, the current Elliott count is about to be fully challenged as to its preference.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
With the past week showing upside breakouts on precious metals equity A/D charts, as well as generating a BPI buy signal, it would appear that minute wave v is now in progress.

Minimal price target should come in at around the $882 level, but based on the ongoing count, we remain a long way away from termination.

Updated preferred count: wave v (Minute) of 3 (Minor) of (3) (Intermediate) of {5}(Primary).

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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tooearly

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Reply with quote  #4 
Fib: could the 5 be complete as of today?
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kamakaze

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Reply with quote  #5 
Appears Gold has exceeded the "target" of $882,
but the XAU for instance is lagging......
continue holding Fidelity Gold Fund?
Is this next correction worth sidestepping, the count on 12/29 would appear to look for sideways mostly before resuming a 5th wave of  3 intermediate........???
when to get out when to get in, decisions, decisions.

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
Fib: could the 5 be complete as of today?

Only the minimal price targets have been hit at this juncture, however, it's unlikely that we're at a stopping point based not only on the fundamental background, and that silver has yet to move to higher highs, but that the metal itself is rallying against all of the major worldwide currencies (primarily because of this same fundamental policy).

Next target is around the $910 area.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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tooearly

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Reply with quote  #7 
Thanks
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Doug

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Reply with quote  #8 
here is a look from a candlstick perspective fwiw.
http://patterntrading.blogspot.com/
cheers

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bnick

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Reply with quote  #9 
Beautiful charts, Doug.

bnick

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #10 
Just an updated chart for those who may be keeping score.

The price guidelines for 5th wave price terminations of a "simple" wave structure are as follows:

Wave equality to wave 1 ($882)

.618 times the length of wave 3 ($910)

Wave equality to the length of wave 3 ($977)

1.618 times the length of wave 3 ($1088)

2.618 times the length of wave 3 ($1263)

Of course, there are variances that can be applied fully dependent on the price chart being measured, but these are the classic rules of thumb.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #11 
With bearish divergences on both the precious metals stocks A/D and BPI data, along with reaching the .618 Fibonacci target of $910 early last week, all the ingredients are now in place for a completed impulsive 5 wave structure - marked as Minor Wave 3. However, if Minute Wave v is extending, a 50% retracement would come in at the $850 level which would also serve as a simple snapback point to what was the previous all time highs. Because of the overall pattern structure, any move below this level would solidify this preferred count.

Jumping ahead, since the previous 4th wave structures shown on the chart have been triangle formations, it would then be a reasonable expectation to see the same structure form during Minor Wave 4. Further discussion on this will be addressed as more pattern clarity is known over the next couple of weeks.

Fib







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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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