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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
I haven't updated this one since March, but it currently appears that we're close to finishing a simple second wave flat...maybe by the end of June? I'm still not entirely sure what the higher degree of trend is as yet and why the ambiguous labeling. Hopefully things will become clearer once the current structure is completed.

Comments and/or feedback is highly encouraged.

Fib




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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Updated count through 9/7 showing that gold has probably completed a series of 1's and 2's. With the current lag in the breadth data of the precious metals stocks, along with the larger triangle seen last year, the odds are high that this is all part of a fifth wave structure of intermediate degree (or higher).

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Updated count through Friday's close...now in {4} of iii of 3 of, presumably, (5)

Steady as she goes.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #4 
The updated chart through 10/26 shows that the price pattern of gold looks to be unwinding in a 5th wave extension of "Subminuette" Degree.

The timing of this extension is important in several ways:

1) With the overall objective of challenging the all time highs of 1980, this extension adds a great deal of weight that this price target will be highly doable during this current sequence from the January 5th 2007 lows.

2) Gold will continue being the preferred "currency" of choice in the global markets for the next several weeks.

3) We now have to question the degrees of labeling of the current count...it's probably one degree higher. For example, instead of being in wave 5 of Intermediate Degree, we're more than likely in wave 5 of Primary Degree. This change in degree would compliment the current price pattern structure and would also be more in line to how the general commodity markets are labeled with regard to their historic compressional scope.

But for now, the preferred count remains:

Wave [iii] (Subminuette) of {5} (Minuette) of iii (Minute) of 3 (Minor) of , presumably, (5) (Intermediate).

Fib





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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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Whipsaw101

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Reply with quote  #5 
Dave thanks for the update.......moving to Wave 5 Primary Degree makes sense,  so we still have to finish 3 with 4 and 5 of Primary 5 to follow........
 
Cheers
 
Chris
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #6 
I've now decided to adjust the degree of count to better fit the current dramatic uptrend in the price of gold over the last couple of months.

Under this count consideration, the third wave labeling (in orange) could still be a work in progress where much higher prices during this current advance will be seen over the next several weeks before we see a final termination point.

The revised preferred count: wave iii (Minute) of 3 (Minor) of (3) (Intermediate) of {5} (Primary).

Fib








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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #7 

Fib,

To add the Elliott Wave psychological flavor to the spot gold count, below is an attempt to transpose your labeling to the daily Market Vane gold bullish percentage survey, a 5 day moving average.  The gold bull percentage 5 day MA hit 92.6% mid-week, and backed off nominally since.

Would you expect the bull percentage to rise yet higher before this blow-off top is complete? 



FWIW

Randy

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
Would you expect the bull percentage to rise yet higher before this blow-off top is complete?

Well, your transposing worked out to perfection, and all but confirms the current count as to its labeling as being the preferred and correct one.

What we should see from here is the same kind of sentiment pattern seen generated during the final phases of Primary 3 in the first half of 2006...higher and higher bull percentage numbers as each degree of trend continues to unwind until the end of Intermediate 5 (of Primary 5).

And for those who were cognizant of the time, just like the year 1979 where gold was being reported on the nightly news like a race horse driving for the finish line, and every radio and television advertisement was seemingly gold related, not only will the Market Vane numbers continue to move to higher highs from here, but being all part of Primary 5, these same numbers should also exceed the all time highs (whatever that might be) by a hefty amount.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #9 
Dave,

The Market Vane data I have access to, only goes back to 1994, thus I have no comparative Market Vane data corresponding to the 1979 gold highs.  The current Market Vane gold bullish percentage 5 day MA is the highest recorded in the past 13+ years, with maximum single day bullish percentage of 94 was achieved for two consecutive days in late October.  

As a sidebar, my manager at my day job is a precious metals investor and I provided him spot gold and CPI data from the early 70s (shamelessly sucking up to the boss ), and he calculated the current inflation adjusted gold price relative to the 1979 high at over $2200 per ounce (I can't recall the exact number)...... so who knows how high it will go in this cycle.

Since the weak US dollar has an influence on gold as priced in US dollars, the current Market Vane bullish percentage of the $USD is on the low side, but not pegged out to the low of the past few years quite yet. The current 10 day MA for the MV $USD bullish percentage is 15%, higher than its low of 11% in early 2003 when the $USD was approximately 33% higher than its current level....

By the time the $USD MV bullish percentages reach their 2003 lows, assuming that low gets tested, the $USD will likely be lower yet, gold will be at who knows what price, and the MV gold bullish percentage could well be pegged out at close to 100%.... in the fullness of time.



Randy
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #10 
Quote:
and he calculated the current inflation adjusted gold price relative to the 1979 high at over $2200 per ounce

The number I keep hearing and reading about is around $2500, but I will go with your bosses number being the astute and wonderful person that he is - whose hard work in calculating this same information should be given the high praise that it rightly deserves!

Here's another sentiment gauge for the precious metals arena that's currently showing little in the way of any real froth at this time...the net asset value of the Central Fund of Canada which currently stands at a 3.80% premium. As the longer term chart shows, we usually don't see any type of exhaustive moves in the price of the precious metals until we see readings approaching the 10% level. This, along with the Rydex cash flow data that can be found at Decision Point, continue to suggest that we are quite a ways away from any kind peak in sentiment at this time.

Fib






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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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Doug

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Reply with quote  #11 
Greetings
we are getting a target reaction in the  pm sector.
Not sure if you remember the quarterly hui chart and targets Posted here some time ago? Still amazes me how this stuff works some times. It is on my blog if you would like to see it.
http://patterntrading.blogspot.com/
cheers

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Whipsaw101

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Reply with quote  #12 

Dave  if iii is done implies iv will correct approx .382 of iii or .382 (850-660) which is $777 level.......does that make sense?

Also on CEF Stock Charts chart.......how did you get "PREM" to show???
Or is PREM overlayed from somewhere else?


Also, wondering if all of the new ways to invest in Gold are affecting some of these historical indicators..look at RYDEX PM Cash Flow barely budged on the latest rally...also, CEF trades in $CDN on TSX how much of 2007 rise in CEF is related to 25% appreciation in $CDN rather than Gold? Look at CEF/A.TO actually in a downtrend when viewed in $CDN

Thanks

CW

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #13 
Quote:
Dave if iii is done implies iv will correct approx .382 of iii or .382 (850-660) which is $777 level.......does that make sense?

Using SC as a daily price guide, and assuming that Monday's plunge is part of wave iv, the starting point for wave iii was at $651.60 and ended at $848.00 for spread total of $196.40.

The natural 4th wave retracement calculation is .382 times the length of wave iii which comes out to $772.98. However, it's not unusual to see shallower wave retracements in 3rd wave extensions such as the case right now. Under this situation, the minimal Fibonacci retracement level is .236 times the length of wave iii at $801.65 which is about where we closed today.

In any event, the maximum downside objective for this kind of wave structure should come in at the 4th wave of one lesser degree which comes in at the consolidation period seen in the end September/beginning of October period at around the $740 level. It's also interesting to note that a 50% retracement level of this same wave iii structure would come in at $749.80. Being that we are dealing with an emotional trading environment as we have right now, any three of these Fibonacci objectives can be met and still keep the overall Elliott structure intact using these same specific guidelines. The work becomes in watching other analytical tools, and inter market relationships, to firm up which of these price targets will give you the "preferred" outcome.

Quote:
Also on CEF Stock Charts chart.......how did you get "PREM" to show???

That's a secret I can't really divulge, but you can see this data on Decision Point under the "Gold Sentiment" link.

Quote:
Also, wondering if all of the new ways to invest in Gold are affecting some of these historical indicators..look at RYDEX PM Cash Flow barely budged on the latest rally...

The latest introduction of different gold/silver ETF's over the last couple of years might be a good reason why the current CEF premium is as low as it is, no less, the timid levels of cash flow into the Rydex precious metals funds. How important this is remains to be seen as we don't have too much in the way of historical data to work with to really know or not. So at this point, I'm taking this information at face value until it turns into something not having the substance it had before.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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stubaby

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Reply with quote  #14 
Dave:

Any chance of an update on your EW thoughts on Gold - it's been a long time.

Thanks,
Stubaby

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