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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Are now up and can be reviewed by clicking here.

BETS +30: Accumulate Longs with Protective Bearish Stops (below market).

Fib

[bets090613]

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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doc

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Reply with quote  #2 
Your NYAD chart is a week old and didn't update for some reason. It doesn't show NYMO crossing not only above zero, but above the little blip above zero, clearing the path for the bulls to maintain control. It is the bulls ball to lose here. I would just like to see the NYAD clear its 19ema. At the highs Friday afternoon, we were well clear of it and within 200 more positive issues of touching the 39ema. Once/if those are cleared, we have a better chance of maintaining this rally.

Thanks for the review and ATB

Doc

BTW, I haven't had a chance to update any Hurst cycle analysis in months in reference to your question in the other thread last week. Over the last 3 years, I came to the conclusion that Hurst cycles get overwhelmed when the entire world sloshes the financial markets with an ocean of liquidity, distorting the cycles normally present underneath. It made more sense to use other tools. Maybe I'll take another peak soon when I get a chance.
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
Your NYAD chart is a week old and didn't update for some reason. It doesn't show NYMO crossing not only above zero, but above the little blip above zero, clearing the path for the bulls to maintain control.

Thanks for the catch Doc....the chart has been updated. The NYAD configuration remained the same so there's no effect on the BETS number. That's what happens when you're rushing to catch a plane...apologies.

Quote:
It is the bulls ball to lose here. I would just like to see the NYAD clear its 19ema.

Yes..otherwise we have a simple snapback to this same EMA where the bears could again take control.

Quote:
Over the last 3 years, I came to the conclusion that Hurst cycles get overwhelmed when the entire world sloshes the financial markets with an ocean of liquidity, distorting the cycles normally present underneath.

Agreed...very much like the 9 month cycle since 2008. But don't throw it out altogether because as interest rates continue to rise, this will siphon off this same sloshing effect to where we'll be able to once again pick up the underlying rhythm beneath the ocean.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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kamakaze

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Reply with quote  #4 
Quote:
"BTW, I haven't had a chance to update any Hurst cycle analysis in months.
Over the last 3 years, I came to the conclusion that Hurst cycles get overwhelmed when the entire world sloshes the financial markets with an ocean of liquidity, distorting the cycles normally present underneath. It made more sense to use other tools."

Azz I recall, Hurst found that his cycles accounted for 23% of the fluctuation, so, when the funnymentals trend is bulldozing the path, the cycles, while still there, are distorted yes, and with less discernible effect (duh). Even so worth tracking for when the direction of the sum of ALL cycles indicates a direction, like this counter move and return to the "fundamental" trend, and for when cycles become more "dominant".
I've appreciated your observations/comments on Hurst cycles and missed seeing them.
Hurst observed that cycles waxed and waned in cycle dominances, duration, magnitudes, etc. which ensure that one must approach the analysis carefully.
Where as the original book postulated that the then current 18 week cycle was the result of the 13 &n 26 week cycles, noting the 13 week cycle in several examples, while today the dominant cycle appears to be
20 weeks, I find that the 13 week cycle appears in the $SPX often enuff to take into account.
I count 10-11 weeks along in the $SPX, 
so with Dave's comments on the possibility/probability of some more chop, milling around, for as much as 2-3 weeks to therefore suggest that this cycle bottoms at 13 weeks, with a pull back 6-7 weeks after that so that those that prefer the 20 week cycle will be accommodated.

PLEASE update your cycles and share your comments...
Thx, Mike

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