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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Are now up and can be reviewed by clicking here.

BETS +95: Strong Buy.

Fib

[bets081216]

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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doc

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Reply with quote  #2 
Hi Fib,

I was wondering if you could post a longer range BETS chart, say 5-7 years to provide perspective. I remember in the summer of 2014, your BETS got up to +90 in March and we got a  peak and a trading range for a couple months down from there and again in June which marked a short term peak. A +75 in Sept 2014 then lead to the Oct lows and a sizable drop. Just curious if other very high BETS readings led to short term consolidations or corrections. You can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps back. I see some other indications that a "breather" is due for this uptrend. Comments?

All the best, 
Doc
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fib_1618

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Hi Doc

Below is the longer term chart of the BETS with the New York Composite Index since inception in 2004. Please remember that this data does NOT live in a vacuum, so a review of the cumulative charts themselves would help as far as further comparisons. Here's the link to the historic cumulative chart data from 2004-2009 for further analytical scrutiny - http://www.technicalwatch.com/cumarchives.htm Also note that the chart tally went from 12 to 20 sometime in 2007 which smoothed out the data from that time forward. This week's +95 reading in the BETS is the highest level we've seen since 2/18/11.

Hope this note finds you and your family are doing well!

Fib

[ltbets081216] 


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #4 
Thanks Fib! When you post a longer range BETS chart, you post a LONGER range BETS chart! All the way back to 2004. That is great. As one can see, some high readings led to pullbacks and others did not. So you are 100% right to point out that the data does not live in a vacuum. 
There is no denying that breadth data has been very strong of late, promising higher highs. I see several things currently that argue for a quick pullback very soon. Today's shooting star candlestick might just get the ball rolling. 
Anything you could share on your thoughts at this juncture?

We are all doing well. Hope all is well with you and your family as well. 

All the best, 

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
Quote:
Anything you could share on your thoughts at this juncture?

The current trend remains higher until proven otherwise, and this is likely to continue into September.

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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