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fib_1618

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Are now up and can be reviewed by clicking here.

Please note that the time axis has been adjusted this week for better interpretative value moving forward.

Of special note, the NAUD is now at all time highs...the AMUD is within 100 data points of joining the NAUD. 

Fib

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

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“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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kean

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Dave,

Based on how over-bought the market has become over the last few weeks, is it riskier to be fully invested or to be partially invested? I know you've mentioned how stimulous money is just now beginning to hit the markets, causing it be remain resilient, but I have to wonder how powerful is this, and what degree of caution is warranted. With MCSUMs as high as they are, one wouldn't think a pullback is worth chasing.

Tim

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fib_1618

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With MCSUMs as high as they are, one wouldn't think a pullback is worth chasing.

The key to all of this is the height of the MCSUM's themselves. As you might remember Tim, when the MCSUM eventually starts moving lower from current levels, it will continue to be extremely difficult for a downtrend to gain any traction until we get closer to the zero line. What will tend to happen then is that you will get one or two day shake outs in the uptrend and then new attempts to continue higher (like last week) based on further momentum being worked off from the final peak in the velocity of money moving in this same direction.

To play this then is not so difficult as we can use basic TA 101 moving average and trendline analysis to place strategic stops on any open long positions and let the market tell us when its time to "bank" any profits made since the buy signal. If you're really unsure about things, and want to be a bit quicker in pulling the trigger in closing these same positions, I would highly recommend using the Parabolic SAR indicator as it would compliment these same TA 101 analysis methods.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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