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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
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BETS -55: Accumulate Shorts with a Bearish Bias.



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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Posts: 53
Reply with quote  #2 
You may recall approx 18 months ago, during the Fall '18 market selloff, I presented in the chat-room the results of an old study re the 50 & 200 SMAs.

I no longer have that study (I ran it under software I no longer use), but basically I mentioned that historically, during "meaningful" selloffs, when the 200SMA turns down, it's RARE for the market to find a bottom prior to the down-trending 50SMA crossing UNDER the down-trending 200SMA. 

Simply: It's rare to bottom prior to the death-cross.

Obviously big down-moves that cause the 200SMA to turn down, often experience big counter-trend up-moves before the final bottom is formed.

Anyway, maybe it's different this time... It's anyone's guess, but historically-speaking, it would be rare to bottom prior to the death-cross.

Just some thoughts, but everyone should do their own research and follow their own methods of course. 

Stay healthy, and trade well!
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