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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Based on today's rally, and the many pieces of technical evidence discussed over the last 5 months coming together in this time period, I now find it advantageous to switch to a 100% long allocation in my core accounts as follows:

50% Large Caps (SPX)
25% Small Caps (RUT)
25% Emerging Markets (EMF)

Follow up posts to this allocation switch will be made as warranted.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #2 
Couple of questions, Fib.

1. By 100% long allocation, do you mean that you went all in? i.e. 100% of  funds available for the core part now fully invested?

2. What looked like an island reversal for a strong rally seems to have fizzled with a LOD close for the end of the calendar year session. The NYSE McSum is still under -250, components  under 0. To me, this does not look like robust money flow in the right direction, although there is the excuse of light holiday trading. Any concern?

Geo
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
1. By 100% long allocation, do you mean that you went all in?

Yes.

And for those who may not know, my reference to "Core Accounts" is made up of retirement funds only...very conservative in nature, with an intermediate term time perspective, and somewhat limited to allocation positioning.


Quote:
What looked like an island reversal for a strong rally seems to have fizzled with a LOD close for the end of the calendar year session. The NYSE McSum is still under -250, components under 0. To me, this does not look like robust money flow in the right direction, although there is the excuse of light holiday trading. Any concern?

Earlier in December, it was the expectation that trading would be rather choppy going into the beginning of the new year because of all the calendar cross currents. The initial breadth and volume thrusts out of the 9 month low did generate highly "overbought" STVO readings that needed to be alleviated, no less, we found initial overhead trendline pattern resistance coming out of this same low.

Since that time, things still look good with no technical breakdowns as yet, with the past weeks "stumble" keeping the majority cautious, while continuing to build price pattern compression. This is kind of action is actually very typical behavior after 9 month lows, and if this is what we're dealing with, we should start to see our vigorous rally attempt by this time next week...if not sooner.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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geosing

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Reply with quote  #4 
Thanks, fib. I am seriously considering holding more than a day in my retirement account as an experiment. I am assuming by "technical breakdown", you mean in the internals - like previous flag taken out ... perhaps break down of the ledge like McSum formation. Or the anticipated rally fails to materialize ....

I am doing well in corn and EUR-USD. Don't know why I want to fool with the Dow and the equity market...

Geo
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