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dfi

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Reply with quote  #1 
Anybody like to critique my count?

If its right, the bear market has just begun. 




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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Quote:
If its right, the bear market has just begun.

Thanks for the post.

In what could turn into a long (and somewhat boring) dissertation on the subject, I will say that I'm not a great lover of running corrections (your B wave in the 2004-2006 period), nor do I believe in truncated wave structures as your 4th wave labeling suggests in the 2001/2002 period.

With that said, I'll share my preferred count that I've been working with since the 2002 lows that continues to correlate well with the on going breadth of market, as well as, the sloppy price behavior that has taken place since that time.

Since we seem to be in a Cycle degree bear market, "B" waves of this time degree usually last either 5 or 8 years in duration, and like clock work, a reactive high in the price pattern was seen in 2007 just above the .382 retracement level. Furthermore, since "B" waves of this degree are notorious for retracing closer to .618 levels, along with the current highly accommodative monetary policy in force, my opinion is that we'll probably have another 3 years to go just to finish out Cycle wave "B", and from that point, the final correctional phase of the bear market that started in 2000 will see its final "C" wave purge to around the 1994/1995 lows.

In the fullness of time.

Fib





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dfi

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Reply with quote  #3 
thanks fib for the input.

As an alternate count I have this. That's the problem I have with ewave, there's always an alternate count that is totally opposite of the main count.

I know that you use sentiment to help with the wave counts, but I always have problems applying that myself.


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Reply with quote  #4 
So Fib CYCLE B 'could' be over. I wont go into the reason why I think the reflation of the economy will not work this time but lets just say you can bring the horse to the water but you cant force him to drink.


QUESTION
========

At what price level[s] will you accept that we are 'starting off' AND 'well on our way' in CYCLE C down to the 1995 price lows ?



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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #5 
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At what price level[s] will you accept that we are 'starting off' AND 'well on our way' in CYCLE C down to the 1995 price lows ?

Based on pattern structure, and DFI's alternate count, a break below the 1750 level would do it.

Fib




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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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