All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #1 
As of today (Friday August 3) the CLX offsets for both the Dow and the NDX are setup for several days of favorable offsets due to evaporate, I have the Dow with eight consecutive days of favorable offsets and the NDX with nine consecutive days of favorable offsets.

The blue curve in the below chart illustrates the sum of the Dow 10 day and 30 day CLX offsets in play over the next five trading days.  As is often observed, the Dow started gaining strength a couple days before all of its unfavorable CLX offsets were expended.  One would now expect the blue curve to turn north.



The NDX CLX sum of 10 day and 30 day offsets are in a configuration similar to the Dow.



There are numerous other CLX indicators suggesting higher prices over the next few weeks and shorter term sentiment tools are now becoming more supportive of a sustained rally.

However, next week is Weird Wollie Wednesday, which just happens to fall on the same day as a moderate bottoming McClellan timing model signal.  The large cluster of McClellan bottoming timing signals expired Thursday, but the possibility of a short term shake out/fake out over the next couple of days is there, which would serve to shake out the early bottom pickers who aren't so sure they did the right thing.

We'll see... but the CLX data door is now open for upside action, the bulls just need to step up to the plate.

FWIW

Randy
0
skyymaster

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 2
Reply with quote  #2 
Today is August 3rd not 10, does that matter.
0
da_cheif

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 137
Reply with quote  #3 
heres joannes clx chart

http://homepage.mac.com/j42231/81sum.gif
0
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #4 
Skymaster,

Thanks for the catch, I meant 8-3-2007... posted this thread about the time the roosters began crowing in the barnyard down the road and was obviously not awake yet.

cheif: thanks for posting the link to Joanne's CLX chart, her work is always innovative and interesting...  and is showing the same CLX/CLXpp characteristics that are showing up in my CLX files.

Randy
0
ken29

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 34
Reply with quote  #5 
Randy,

Once the market retest its Aug 1 bottom, does the positive CLX offsets means we have 8-9 days of rally? By the way, always appreciate your great technical works .

0
doc

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 497
Reply with quote  #6 
Cheif,

Looking at the spx cash, we bounced off the .618 support around 1437 reaching 1439 and change. I have the following fib retraces on spx cash:

.382 at 1484
.500 at 1498
.618 at 1512

If you combine your CLX with ewave/fib analysis, which of those targets seems most reasonable before another reaction might occur?

Doc
0
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #7 
Ken,

Sorry it has taken so long to read your question and comments (day job and personal stuff has taken over the past few days) and thanks for the feed back.

CLX offsets do not guarantee a counter move in the direction opposite the state of the offsets, but excesses caused by clusters of "same polarity" offsets do present the opportunities for the bulls or the bears to take the market in the direction opposite of the offsets in play.  Currently, the ball is in the bulls' court to take advantage of the offset configuration that is very favorable for their cause.

Here are the CLX 10 day offsets in play over the next five days:

NDX: -16, -50, -24, -69, -70

Dow: -2, -23, -8, -28, -25

These are very favorable strings for the bulls, and the 10 day offsets beyond the next five days are also favorable for bulls with 3 or 5 days favorable for the Dow, and 4 of 5 days favorable for the NDX.  The lopsided strings do not guarantee consecutive days of advancing prices, but suffice to say, the opportunity is present for the bulls.

We got a very nice shake out Friday, whether that is enough for a short term bottom only time will tell.... are the bulls ready to step up in earnest?  Many of the extremely oversold internals we've seen over the past few weeks often point to further trouble 2 to 4 months down the road. 

The bear side of the boat appears to be getting too crowded in the short term per the options indicators, the liquidity premiums, and the daily shorting activity.  The buy-to-open (BTO) put-call ratios for the very smallest retail equity options traders improved last week, but that group is certainly not buying puts at the pace they have at other important bottoms over the past couple years.

The nature of the CLX calculations normally require a couple of days of collective price moves in the same direction to drive index CLX values to extremes, so continued up-down price volatility over the next week or two could squander the the current CLX offset opportunity for the bulls.

With Weird Wollie Wednesday and the Fed meeting coming early next week, we can rest assured we will be seeing some fireworks in the market.

FWIW

Randy
0
da_cheif

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 137
Reply with quote  #8 
offsets liteing the afterburners.......check this out and listen carefully to what ed is talking about.....deja vu......eh.....oct 19 1987

20 years ago.......seems like yesterday



0
doc

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 497
Reply with quote  #9 
Thanks for the detailed analysis, Randy.
Let's see if we can get a string of upside moves now or if the zero line snapback on the MCO will cap any upside endeavors.
We are definitely in the window for Hurst 4.5 yr nest of lows.
Have been scaling in long with stops in place and so far so good.

Doc
0
da_cheif

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 137
Reply with quote  #10 

like i sed...offsets liting the after burners........watch the sky.......its like having next weeks wsj........snort

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch