All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #1 

Some CLX-CLXpp updates for the week ending 5-26-06.

 

John: if/when time allows, please flag any Dow CLX or CLXpp discrepancies.

 

First the Dow CLX-CLXpp offset table.  The offsets scheduled to fall of in the coming holiday shortened trading week are highlighted in red.  The font of the Weird Wollie Wednesday data is enlarged. Note for the 10 day offsets, next week is filled with favorable-for-the-bullish case offsets falling off.  the 30 day offsets evaporating next week are a mixed bag, and depending upon next week's CLX-CLXpp action, may keep the CLX 30 day MA stagnant allowing the CLX 10 day MA to crossover the 30 day.

 

 

The Dow 10 day MA-30 day MA CLX chart.  Assuming my numbers are close to being correct, I have the Dow CLX 10 day MA at -3.8 and the Dow 30 day at -0.13, thus per the offsets in play this week, the Dow 10 day MA has the opportunity to cross over the 30 day MA.

 

 

The leading DOW CLXpp indicator's 10 day MA, currently a bit below zero, has already crossed its 30 day MA to the upside.

 

 

The NDX CLX-CLXpp offset table. As with the Dow offsets, the NDX has favorable 10 day offsets due to expire over the coming week, while the 30 day offsets are unfavorable following Tuesday's trading.

 

 

The NDX CLX 10 day MA-30 day MA current configuration.  The NDX CLX 10 day MA has turned up and is currently at -18, and needs some strength this week to overcome the 30 day MA currently around -8.

 

 

The NDX CLXpp 10 MA (at -8) is closer than its CLX counterpart in crossing over the 30 day MA (at -5).

 

 

The SMH CLX-CLXpp offset table with the offsets in play for the coming week highlighted in red.  Pretty much the same story as the Dow and NDX offsets in play for the coming week, the bulls have their opportunity to exploit the favorable offsets for the 10 day.

 

 

The SMH CLX 10 day MA (-3.80) and 30 day MA (-2.07) configuration. With the current 10 day offsets due to disappear this week, the opportunity is setup for the 10 day MA to cross over the 30 day MA.

 

 

As did the Dow's CLXpp 10 day MA, the SMH CLXpp 10 day MA has already crossed over its 30 day MA.

 

 

Adding another table this week with the AD data for some broader based indices whose data is not widely published at free sites.  The "key" for the symbols:

 

RUT: Russell 2000 small caps

RUI: Russell 1000 large/mid caps

RUA: Russell 3000 composite (sum of RUT and RUI)

NY Common: the 2000+ common stock components of NYA (NYSE composite index)

 

Included in the table are a couple of data points some may not be familiar with:

 

AD McClellan Oscillator (MCO) Unchanged: the number of net raw advances needed for the next day for the MCO to remain unchanged.

 

AD McClellan Oscillator (MCO) to Zero: the number of net raw advances needed to drive the MCO to zero for the next trading day.

 

Most of the other indicator values are familiar to those who study MCOs.  Putting this table together does require a little work, so reader feedback on its usefulness would be appreciated to determine if it's worth the effort to maintain.

 

 

Everyone have a restful and enjoyable remaining Memorial Day weekend, and please do not forget the reason for Memorial Day.  Remember those veterans who have served our country, and particularly those who gave the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms.

 

FWIW

 

Randy

0
geosing

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #2 

Randy,

 

Excellent work (as if you ever do this stuff any other way). I am a numbers guy myself and the table you put together on the MCO gives me more clarity, as the squiggly lines in charts give to others. In fact, I wonder if you can build a similar table using the Weekly A/D data, my interest being primarily for the RUT and NYSE, although SPX will be helpful to many, I think. In the table, please consider adding a weekday row just below the date (thankfully an easy addition), such as Mon, Tue etc. Day of week routines may become apparent and sometimes useful in short term trading.

 

I am also interested in knowing if you have gotten farther along in your investigations on the weekly A/D data and their use as tools of analysis with some predictive capability.

 

Now what I really want to know is how you manage to extract more than 24 hours in a calendar day.

 

Geo

 

 

0
gman

TW Patron
Registered:
Posts: 62
Reply with quote  #3 

Randy,

Excellent work, as usual. 

 

There is one number difference that we have.  I went back to Wollie World to confirm what I have.  On 5/16, the numbers are as follows:

 

5/16 2 1

 

Your listing for the pp is entered as a zero.

 

Here is the breakdown for the pp on that day:

 

clxpp

uppers: hon aig dd pfe mo dis

downers: intc xom t ko cat mmm hpq


 

0
doc

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 497
Reply with quote  #4 

Randy,

 

Incredible work and thanks. One correction I see needs to be done on all three tables of clx numbers. The dates for the 10 ma drop off got off track when May 20 and 21 (Sat Sun) were included in that column. I see that in all three tables. To avoid confusion, maybe it is possible to edit it directly rather than repost? Otherwise, I am going to have to sit down and absorb all this great work. Happy Memorial Day to you and all.

 

Doc

0
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #5 

Geo, John, Doc,

 

Thank you all for your feedback!

 

Geo: I don't have too much NYSE composite weekly AD history, but I know where I can get it, and something I have meant to do for a couple months now.  As far as weekly RUT and SPX AD data, I can recreate it, but it would be only 18 months (RUT) to 22 months (SPX) of data.  This is a sufficient amount for us to get a feel for the MCOs and McSums, but would limit us for historical lookbacks.  The limiting factor for RUT and SPX, is I only began downloading my own component lists for those indices beginning in the 18 to 22 month time frames. 

 

I used to skim the data from MV, but got disgusted with their lax in updating index components, thus the motivation to create my own... and I do keep the component lists of those and many other indices up to date.

 

I'm still plugging on the weekly NYSE common stock only AD list as well as a weekly NYA unweighted average.  The data is being derived from over 1150 daily component files, a task where I should write a program for, but after looking at the algorithm (long story), the job would require quite a bit of time, a commodity I am very short of these days.  I hope to have it ready sometime this summer and as a preview, the weekly common only AD line looks much different than the weekly composite AD line at the 2002-03 bottom.

 

As far as extracting more than 24 hours per calendar day, suffice it to say there is no rest for the wicked, my days are full  .  Thanks for weighing in Geo, we need to entice you into posting your pivot and Rx/Sx levels.... your work in the area of price targets is incredible!

 

John: Thanks for the Dow CLX-CLXpp sanity check, I know you have better things to do than cross check my data.  Turns out C (Citigroup) had just enough volume variance from the original 5-16-06 download versus what is extracted today from historical data, flipped the C CLXpp value from +1 to zero for the 16th.  Thanks again....

 

Doc: Want a moonlight job as my data quality control manager?  I am not sure how weekend dates got into those tables, but they certainly did.  Thank you much for once again applying your sharp eyes in maintaining accuracy.  I want you as my doctor, you don't miss a thing!  Sorry for the mistake.

 

Thanks again to all for your feedback and ideas.

 

Randy

0
geosing

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #6 

Randy,

 

Thank you for your comment re targets, which are mostly wild guesses and are suitable only for traders like me who can forecast a Dow target 80 points higher and then go short at the open.  

 

Re weekend dates etc. This is another reason for my request to plug in the weekday in a column next to the date. Any anamolies tend to become obvious to folks like me. Not everyone can be like the doc.

 

Geo

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch