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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #1 

Thought it might be timely for a CLX-CLXp offset update for those interested.

 

The Dow CLX and CLXp numbers have not been verified with Don's official numbers, but they should be close.  The CLX and CLXp numbers highlighted in red are those due to fall from the 10 day and 30 day offsets this week.  All Dow 10 day MAs are below their respective 30 day MAs (CLX, CLXp, and AYDIS).  Two days remain to flush out the remaining unfavorable-for-the-bullish case offsets.

 

 

The NDX CLX and CLXp offsets are in a similar configuration as the Dow's.  After Tuesday of this week, there is a very juicy string of favorable offsets for both CLX variants on both the 10 and 30 day offsets.  All NDX CLX related 10 day MAs are below their 30 day MAs, but there are also many positive divergences in place for CLX-CLXp-AYDIS derivative oscillators, etc.

 

 

The SMH 10 and 30 day offsets mirror the NDX's. The primary difference with the SMH moving averages relative to the NDX and Dow's 10 and 30 day MAs, is the SMH 10 day MA is very close to the 30 day MA, unlike the NDX and Dow moving averages whose 10 day MAs are comfortably below the 30 day MAs.  The SMH CLX-CLXp derivative indicators are diverging very positively relative to price.

 

 

With OPEX, cycle considerations, and other indicator configurations, the CLX offsets may be providing some useful clues in the near term.

 

Doc: if you read this, please perform your usual due diligence in finding any errors in the table. 

 

FWIW

 

Randy

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da_cheif

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Reply with quote  #2 

Jul 13 2006, 08:31 AM
Post #75


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CLX students....if you notice......in the Sept SnP large contract there are 2 gaps left open under the market ...1258 and 1241.......the 1258 gap is rite at the 75% retrace off the swing low of 6/28 and the 1241 gap is just below the 78.6% retrace off the 6/14 low.....clx offsets will turn favorable on both the 30 and 10 day around monday or tues...sentiment on this 2nd wave pullback should get white hot....notice the equity pc ratio was at its highest in many moons yesterday 84% acually hit 102% at the opening.....and vix pc ratio at 7% the lowest ever....so far however the 38.2 retrace off the 6/14 low at 1266.66 tho penetrated has not seen a close below it. For a change we are seeing down gap openings ...a plus......and there are now gaps above the market...a huge plus.....1282.30...1288.20..1299.10 ...1305.90...1322.90....and 1339.20

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da_cheif

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Reply with quote  #3 

http://homepage.mac.com/j42231/718four.gif

 

thanks to clx student joanne from ww.....

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gman

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Reply with quote  #4 

Randy,

 

The only changes that I can see with the clx numbers are the following:

6/16 --> 13

6/23 --> -5

6/30 -->  7

 

Our pp's were all in agreement.

 

The stuff Don just posted "for clx students" suggests upward prices.  Joanne's momentum chart (bottom right) just had a positive crossover.  The ADYIS has been deep in the hole for the last three days. And the 3dma's are coming out of deep holes.  All this points upward, unless of course...

 

--John

 

PS.  Todays numbers: 0n5

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #5 

cheif,

 

Thanks for weighing in again on the open gaps, I don't track the full SPX futures contract (just the e-minis), but I would assume the last open gap at 1241 has now been filled?  Also appreciate the links to Joanne's charts, her work is very creative.

 

John:  thanks for the Dow CLX update, I reloaded all components' price and volume with updated numbers, which corrected the 6-23-06 and 6-30-06 discrepancies, but the reload still results in a +11 Dow CLX for 6-16-06, although I do have a +13 for 6-15-06.  I recall a couple months ago there was a price discrepancy from various vendors for WMT (?) which threw off the CLX/CLXp numbers from Don's.  My homemade down-loader uses Yahoo since they are more user friendly to data scraping hackers like me, wonder if that is the problem for the 6-16-06 CLX disagreement?

 

Thanks!

 

Randy

 

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da_cheif

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Reply with quote  #6 

imfortunately they left a gap open this morning....1245

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gman

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Reply with quote  #7 

Here are the numbers for the last few weeks:

 

7/17 10 6
7/18 0 5
7/19 10 11
7/20 3 4
7/21 2 3
7/24 11 8
7/25 10 9
7/26 9 5
7/27 5 1
7/28 15 10

 

Here are a few observations: 

1) The 10d and 30d clx numbers are now greater that the corresponding pp numbers.  This tends to have a bullish bias.

2)For both the clx and pp, their 10d numbers are now greater that their corresponding 30d numbers.  This, too, results in a bullish bias.

3) For both the 10d and 30d, offsets for the next 1 1/2 week have a downside bias.

4) The ADYIS is now at +5 which is past the overbought level of +3.

5) per da Cheif at traders talk today: "once the front month sp penetrates 1372 then 1400... then the real fun begins....till then its a matter of the proletariat fighting the tape as the wonderfull wall of worry just keeps on growing"

6) those pesky gaps (1246'ish from 7/24 and 1272'ish from today) below.

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #8 

John,

 

Thanks for the Dow CLX value updates and particularly your comments regarding the message currently being presented by the CLX indicator configurations and the open gaps..

 

The NDX CLX indicators are mimicking the Dow's, but their offsets are still favorable over the next week, both on the 10 day and 30 day horizons. There is one unfavorable offset for Wednesday this week in the NDX domain.  The NDX AYDIS is close to neutral at +5, with all variants' 10 day MAs above their respective 30 day MAs.

 

I am glad you commented on the CLX versus CLXpp relationships in item (1).  This is a phenomena I have been noticing, but was only guessing with its significance.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have observed, particularly with the NDX, when an upside price pop occurs lately, if the CLXpp values are noticeably higher than the CLX values, an upside follow through rarely gets traction.  Friday's action in the NDX resulted in the NDX CLX (+28) being comfortably higher than its CLXpp (+23).  Maybe price is ready to finally ready to move through the many resistance levels above the current price?

 

I have also noticed many other NDX component internals exhibiting significant divergences, and the Dow $ weighted volume MCO has broken above resistance to its highest level since November 2005.  There are signs a near term rest may be in the cards, but the internals in many indices are beginning to firm up.

 

 

Randy

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