It is a given the market will likely hit a bumpy road in the near term due to post OPEX unwinding and the short term overbought condition of many indicators. In addition, numerous internals' McClellan oscillators are compressing (small changes in the past couple of days), so a robust move is highly probable for early next week.
The CLX offsets for the Dow and NDX are both extremely favorable for the bullish case next week, thus the CLX offsets are postured to support a robust move to the upside which would certainly be contrary to short term conventional wisdom.
The following two charts are an attempt to illustrate the CLX offsets on the table for the Dow and NDX over coming week. The blue curves represent the sum of both the 10-day and 30-day CLX offsets that will be in play over the next five trading days. An extreme negative posting denotes both the 10-day and 30-day CLX offsets due to fall off over the next five days are favorable for the bullish case whilst extreme positive levels in the blue curves mean unfavorable (positive polarity) offsets are evaporating in the coming week.
First is the NDX CLX offset indicator for the 10-day and 30-day five day sums in play for next week. This offset sum indicator is not infallible when in deep negative territory, with two examples circled where negative extremes were accompanied by near term price tops. However, note the price action in the weeks prior to the two CLX offset negative extremes where the CLX extremes coincided with a near term price top.
Next is a bird's eye view of the Dow CLX offset variant illustrating the offsets in play for the coming week. Its pattern is similar to the NDX.
Due to some very positive CLX numbers posted last week for both the Dow and NDX, these indicators will rise rapidly into positive territory by the end of the coming week. Wednesday, 8-16-06, the NDX CLX reached a +70 value which is in the top 15 positive value extremes over the past 10+ years. In about half of the cases of NDX CLX postings at or above +70, the market underwent a short term consolidation/correction. The other instances of +70 or above NDX CLX postings resulted in more upside price action over the coming weeks.
Additional study is needed on my part to determine other forces in play when the CLX achieves positive extremes for interpreting the most likely outcome of high positive CLX extremes when they occur.
There are other warning signs supporting a more bearish short term scenario, particularly the action in the NYSE common stock internals. The NYSE $ weighted up-down volume relative strength has been lagging its traditional up-down volume indicators and the unweighted NYA has been lagging its weighted cousin up until this past week. Perhaps money flows are shifting into the NASDAQ tech stocks again at the expense of many NYSE common stocks?
Next week will be an important test for the bulls' conviction to push prices higher.
FWIW
Randy
