All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #1 

It is a given the market will likely hit a bumpy road in the near term due to post OPEX unwinding and the short term overbought condition of many indicators.  In addition, numerous internals' McClellan oscillators are compressing (small changes in the past couple of days), so a robust move is highly probable for early next week.

 

The CLX offsets for the Dow and NDX are both extremely favorable for the bullish case next week, thus the CLX offsets are postured to support a robust move to the upside which would certainly be contrary to short term conventional wisdom. 

 

The following two charts are an attempt to illustrate the CLX offsets on the table for the Dow and NDX over coming week.  The blue curves represent the sum of both the 10-day and 30-day CLX offsets that will be in play over the next five trading days.  An extreme negative posting denotes both the 10-day and 30-day CLX offsets due to fall off over the next five days are favorable for the bullish case whilst extreme positive levels in the blue curves mean unfavorable (positive polarity) offsets are evaporating in the coming week.

 

First is the NDX CLX offset indicator for the 10-day and 30-day five day sums in play for next week.  This offset sum indicator is not infallible when in deep negative territory, with two examples circled where negative extremes were accompanied by near term price tops.  However, note the price action in the weeks prior to the two CLX offset negative extremes where the CLX extremes coincided with a near term price top.

 

 

Next is a bird's eye view of the Dow CLX offset variant illustrating the offsets in play for the coming week.  Its pattern is similar to the NDX.

 

Due to some very positive CLX numbers posted last week for both the Dow and NDX, these indicators will rise rapidly into positive territory by the end of the coming week.  Wednesday, 8-16-06, the NDX CLX reached a +70 value which is in the top 15 positive value extremes over the past 10+ years.  In about half of the cases of NDX CLX postings at or above +70, the market underwent a short term consolidation/correction.  The other instances of +70 or above NDX CLX postings resulted in more upside price action over the coming weeks. 

 

Additional study is needed on my part to determine other forces in play when the CLX achieves positive extremes for interpreting the most likely outcome of high positive CLX extremes when they occur.

 

 

There are other warning signs supporting a more bearish short term scenario, particularly the action in the NYSE common stock internals.  The NYSE $ weighted up-down volume relative strength has been lagging its traditional up-down volume indicators and the unweighted NYA has been lagging its weighted cousin up until this past week. Perhaps money flows are shifting into the NASDAQ tech stocks again at the expense of many NYSE common stocks?

 

Next week will be an important test for the bulls' conviction to push prices higher.

 

FWIW

 

Randy

0
gman

TW Patron
Registered:
Posts: 62
Reply with quote  #2 

Randy,

Here are my clx/pp numbers since I last posted.


7/31 2 3
8/01 5 4
8/02 4 4
8/03 8 1
8/04 8 2
8/07 2 4
8/08 2 1
8/09 7 7
8/10 4 3
8/11 2 5
8/14 5 2
8/15 16 11
8/16 18 12
8/17 14 9
8/18 16 11


Please forgive me for now being able to answer your question for last month. Work has been beyond extremely busy since summer began and it has yet to show signs of letting up. This has kept me doing minimal stuff, market wise.


That being said, I had a friend die of cancer today, another friend who's 18month old daughter has recently been diagnosed with a rare form of brain cancer (Atypical Teratoid Rhabdoid Tumor), and just found out that my uncle was diagnosed with a transitional cell carcinoma around one of his kidneys and ureter (He has an appointment with MD Anderson, the big cancer hospital here in Houston this Tuesday to determine his game plan of attact). I tell you this not for sympathy, but just to let you know that my market involvement is going to be lessened even more for a good while. But if you have any questions about clx, please post them and if I can help in any way and when I get some time, I'll reply. That, or hopefully Don will chyme in with the answer or an opinion.


--John

0
mortiz

TW Patron++
Registered:
Posts: 1,054
Reply with quote  #3 

Hi John,

 

Thanks for the CLX/CLXp numbers update for the Dow.  My data did have slight variations, I am assuming your numbers account for several Dow components' ex-dividends over the past week?  I adjusted mine for the component dividends and just wanted to ensure yours were as well.

 

Sorry to hear about all of the bad news with your friends and family, seems like you have been through the grinder in that respect over the past few months.

 

Best Regards,

 

Randy

0
da_cheif

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 137
Reply with quote  #4 

30 day offsets start exploding on wed

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch