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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-08-04 15:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Good day
2011-08-04 15:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-08-04 16:00:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Super, and you?
2011-08-04 16:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would like to take a moment to welcome those who are taking advantage of this one day open house
2011-08-04 16:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are subscribers...I have decided to have 3 sessions next week to make up the freebie
2011-08-04 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the chat will be on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
2011-08-04 16:01:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, nice!
2011-08-04 16:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm fine and dandy
2011-08-04 16:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who  may be new to the format
2011-08-04 16:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do here is review the markets activity with more of an angle towards the internals
2011-08-04 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of what we go over will apply to all trading styles and time periods
2011-08-04 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no recommendations will be made per se
2011-08-04 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you will have a pretty good plan to work with at the end of the session
2011-08-04 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the session usually takes about 2 hours
2011-08-04 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I am your fearless leader
2011-08-04 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please feel free to ask questions or make comments during the chat
2011-08-04 16:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said then
2011-08-04 16:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are there any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-08-04 16:04:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I knew what to short for acceleration relative to the summation zero line-how will I use same to know what to buy for a bounce-when it happens?
2011-08-04 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in these kind of fast market conditions where emotion takes over that of logic
2011-08-04 16:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best play is to work with index issues for the time being
2011-08-04 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before I go further...I took the time to make up an Elliott count to help us in this area
2011-08-04 16:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum11/elliottspx080411.png
2011-08-04 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only occasionally play with Elliott here in the chat and only when it's appropriate to do so
2011-08-04 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of those times
2011-08-04 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who weren't here on Tuesday
2011-08-04 16:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our downside price objectives for this decline were 1187 intraday and 1219 on the close for the SPX cash
2011-08-04 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today would meet both of those expectations, so what will concentrate on primarily is to see if there are divergences or not to compliment the count shown on the chart
2011-08-04 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the price objectives
2011-08-04 16:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if wave iii was complete today
2011-08-04 16:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should many of the McClellan Oscillators either setting flags or slightly diverging with Wednesday's lows
2011-08-04 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not by a lot...but even slight will work under current conditions
2011-08-04 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth wise today
2011-08-04 16:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a rather lopsided day of 138/2971
2011-08-04 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's about as climactic as one will get in 3rd wave structures
2011-08-04 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have met two criteria for a near term bottom
2011-08-04 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price and breadth plurality
2011-08-04 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, there are other considerations as well which will go over in the next couple of hours
2011-08-04 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so assuming that we have finished out little 3rd wave here
2011-08-04 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 4 should be highly erratic in its behavior
2011-08-04 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who remember 1987
2011-08-04 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the Monday crash
2011-08-04 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday was hard up
2011-08-04 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then Wednesday was hard down
2011-08-04 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the expectation here as the market attempts to find its legs
2011-08-04 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one caveat to this near term expectation
2011-08-04 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have our old friend the unemployment data coming out in the morning
2011-08-04 16:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given business conditions in which I'm apart of
2011-08-04 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't expect the numbers to be that great
2011-08-04 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is where the big difference comes between trading fundamentally and that of a technician
2011-08-04 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2011-08-04 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're as "oversold" as I'm expecting on a trend basis
2011-08-04 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although any bad news will be met initially by selling as to pile on to what we have already seen
2011-08-04 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this kind of news is what is needed so that we can get all of the "unwilling" sellers to capitulate
2011-08-04 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and therefore allow the market to indeed find support and turn the corner to likely close the vacuum that has been created over the last 10 trading days
2011-08-04 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to remember here
2011-08-04 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we now have all of the breadth McClellan Summation Index charts (MCSUM) all down and through their zero lines
2011-08-04 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last to go was the NYSE composite
2011-08-04 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about on Tuesday
2011-08-04 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it moved below its zero line, being the most broadly based indicator, this was going to be our very best chance of a crash like event to occur
2011-08-04 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what we got today
2011-08-04 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that this has passed
2011-08-04 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next expectation here is for some stabilization, and probably a multi day pause to refresh
2011-08-04 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, would be part of our anticipated iv wave structure per the Elliott chart posted earlier
2011-08-04 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the worse of this portion of the decline is just about behind us, if not already
2011-08-04 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless you're holding short for the long term, today was the day to close any short positions opened since we had our 7/26 sell signal
2011-08-04 16:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions or comments?
2011-08-04 16:19:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that 3 is massive
2011-08-04 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2.618 times the length of wave 1
2011-08-04 16:19:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-08-04 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: typical when the market falls off the cliff like it has after an exhaustion move
2011-08-04 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are new
2011-08-04 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do here is that we use the charts at Decision Point to review the market activity
2011-08-04 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who do not subscribe to DP, I will be as descriptive as possible so that you can visualize what we're working with
2011-08-04 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's no questions...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-08-04 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one important thing to note
2011-08-04 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do not look at these charts prior to our chats
2011-08-04 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to make the experience as fluid as possible
2011-08-04 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give you first impressions as to not get a bias or have an opinion before hand
2011-08-04 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who have DP
2011-08-04 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's switch to the 3 year charts tonight - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosisum_nyc.html
2011-08-04 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we go
2011-08-04 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Common Only NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2011-08-04 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now at the lowest levels we've seen since the summer bottoms of last year
2011-08-04 16:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently with a -122 reading
2011-08-04 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news longer term
2011-08-04 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when the MCO gets as extreme as it is right now
2011-08-04 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a very good indication that a major bottom is being created...at least internally
2011-08-04 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the intermediate term
2011-08-04 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we remain above the MCO bottoms created last summer
2011-08-04 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside price objective for this entire correction is to challenge these same price lows
2011-08-04 16:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, the market continues to sell off here
2011-08-04 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we move to lower lows than that of last summer in the MCO
2011-08-04 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then open the door to retrace ALL of the advance from the 2009 lows
2011-08-04 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point, there still isn't enough energy moving in this direction to do this
2011-08-04 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-08-04 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2011-08-04 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are only correcting the excesses of the last two years at this juncture
2011-08-04 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are NOT in a resumption of the bear market decline from the 2007/2008 topping period
2011-08-04 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least at this point in time
2011-08-04 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can change
2011-08-04 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what you learn with market dynamics
2011-08-04 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that prices can only go as far as money will allow it to go
2011-08-04 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if breadth of market isn't leading prices in one direction or the other
2011-08-04 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only work with what is only given by this same money flow analysis
2011-08-04 16:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the bottom of the combo chart
2011-08-04 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DP shows us the 10% and 5% components that make up the daily number on the MCO
2011-08-04 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this time
2011-08-04 16:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component, or the speed in which the 19 day EMA is moving lower in the CO NYSE A/D line
2011-08-04 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is at a point in which it's not likely to maintain this same forward motion
2011-08-04 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens we get what many refer to as "snapback" or "reflex" action in the internals
2011-08-04 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you can only go so far before you either get pulled back toward neutral or break
2011-08-04 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here the near term expectation is for some sort of technical bounce to relieve this same downside pressure
2011-08-04 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-08-04 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are within spitting distance of breaking below the lows of June
2011-08-04 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens
2011-08-04 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually get some kind of turbulence in the market
2011-08-04 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as, in this case, buyers start rushing in to try to stabilize the selling
2011-08-04 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the bears still have over all control of the short term action of the price structure itself
2011-08-04 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're likely to see a volatile chop over the next couple of days as the two sides battle it out
2011-08-04 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side thinking that prices are overdone and at wholesale levels
2011-08-04 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the other side believes that current values still remain too high given fundamental conditions
2011-08-04 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also notice
2011-08-04 16:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this same low in June
2011-08-04 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was also a test of the August lows of last year that completed that correctional period
2011-08-04 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a break of both, but primarily of the August 2010 lows, would then confirm that this same price area will be our current target for this over all declining price structure
2011-08-04 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the case of the Elliott chart
2011-08-04 16:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as our probable objective for wave iii was the trading range of last November
2011-08-04 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave V's completion of the entire 5 wave structure will likely be the summer lows of last year
2011-08-04 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, is powerful information to know 
2011-08-04 16:36:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wouldn't that need an extended 5?
2011-08-04 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it gives us a high confidence that even after we take a pause here (wave iv)
2011-08-04 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that ultimately our final target will still remain with the July 2010 lows
2011-08-04 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't think so
2011-08-04 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simple 5 will do it
2011-08-04 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our extension is the current 3rd wave
2011-08-04 16:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we don't get two extensions in one sequence
2011-08-04 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I guess you can on smaller time frames
2011-08-04 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not likely on the daily
2011-08-04 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a heads up
2011-08-04 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely it will tend to unwind like the final move into SPX 666 back in 2009 on the daily chart
2011-08-04 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should happen quickly where you may only see 3 structures
2011-08-04 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-08-04 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time wise
2011-08-04 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expected bottoming period looks like it will happen sometime between mid September and mid November
2011-08-04 16:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why this time period always seems to come up in market history as points of important bottoms is anyone's guess
2011-08-04 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take at least a month for the debris to clear from this past weeks decline
2011-08-04 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for the market to actually bottom
2011-08-04 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO will need to create several layers of what we in the chat room refer to as "texture" before we'll see a foundation strong enough for the bulls to build on
2011-08-04 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-08-04 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a purely bar charting basis
2011-08-04 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective from this bottom is to provide a snapback to or towards the prior horizontal trading range that was broken to the downside over the last couple of days, no less, the 200 day EMA
2011-08-04 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the overwhelming weakness of the last week or so
2011-08-04 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would only be looking for a move towards this same technical objective than that of meeting it head on
2011-08-04 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as timing of when this snapback may conclude
2011-08-04 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: momentum oscillators tend to provide the best insight in that area
2011-08-04 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since breadth of market leads the direction of price
2011-08-04 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one might want to look at something like the MCO and apply a stochastic to its move in trying to find the best entry point
2011-08-04 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-08-04 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stochastic is scraping the floor
2011-08-04 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me take that back
2011-08-04 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's actually diverging here
2011-08-04 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have access to the MCO
2011-08-04 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apply a full stochastic...standard settings
2011-08-04 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see the divergence
2011-08-04 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember that this is the composite breadth MCO, so let's move on to that chart
2011-08-04 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Ratio Adjusted NYSE breadth MCO now has a lower low
2011-08-04 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no divergence there as yet
2011-08-04 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it has a reading of -103
2011-08-04 16:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about as "oversold" as we get when we're creating a pattern bottom
2011-08-04 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only other higher numbers we've seen over the last 3 years
2011-08-04 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was the "Flash Crash" lows of 2010
2011-08-04 16:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, the lows of 2008/2009
2011-08-04 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those were close to all time records
2011-08-04 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with one on the back of a "heavy finger"
2011-08-04 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can we go lower?
2011-08-04 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, we can
2011-08-04 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it probable that we will dig deeper here?
2011-08-04 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, the math of the MCO doesn't suggest that we will
2011-08-04 16:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do it, it will take another day like today to do that
2011-08-04 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't too many times historically when we've see breadth 29 to 1 one day plurality and then follow it up the next day with the same lopsided figures
2011-08-04 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds here are pretty low
2011-08-04 16:51:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the 1 on SPX is only 112 points-if your ultimate target is correct-it sure seems like this 3 needs to be deeper
2011-08-04 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we deal with as technical traders...probabilities and their potential outcomes
2011-08-04 16:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it can be
2011-08-04 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have the key indicator of the last 2 years coming out tomorrow
2011-08-04 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no jobs...no spending
2011-08-04 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no spending...no earnings
2011-08-04 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no earnings...and equities are not where money is going to
2011-08-04 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds here are good that we are really close to some sort of reflex low
2011-08-04 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price objectives have now been met
2011-08-04 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our trending oscillator for money flow, the MCO, is now highly "oversold"
2011-08-04 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sentiment here is in the dumpster
2011-08-04 16:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: put it another way
2011-08-04 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in a much better position now to find a low than we have been since 7/26
2011-08-04 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if everyone is feeling scared to step in
2011-08-04 16:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NYSE breadth MCSUM...in fact
2011-08-04 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you give me 90 seconds I'll upload the combo chart so everyone can see what I'm seeing here
2011-08-04 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-08-04 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have questions or comments please feel free to throw on the table
2011-08-04 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad080411.png
2011-08-04 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..the first chart is that of the NYAD line
2011-08-04 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the top of the chart is the MCO which measures the speed in which two EMA's (the 19 and 39 day) are moving towards or away from each other
2011-08-04 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the bottom the chart is the MCSUM which shows us the distance traveled between these same two EMA's based on this same acceleration
2011-08-04 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's start with the A/D line itself
2011-08-04 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the obvious thing we see is that after it moved to new all time highs
2011-08-04 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the flow of money suddenly stopped moving into equities
2011-08-04 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this specific turn was caused by the "unexpected" low unemployment numbers we got last month
2011-08-04 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did the markets turn on a dime
2011-08-04 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this sudden shift from moving into stocks, and this surprise created by the data,  many island reversals were seen on the daily charts
2011-08-04 17:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls took a moment to find their composure
2011-08-04 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: found intermediate term trend support at the 39 day EMA (5% Trend)
2011-08-04 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounced higher, found no supporters, and then reversed hard to the downside
2011-08-04 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why this happened will be explained in a moment
2011-08-04 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO during this period
2011-08-04 17:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the high amount of money that moved into the market during what many referred to as a breadth thrust
2011-08-04 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this all came during the period just prior to the end of QE2
2011-08-04 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and came to a screeching halt with the jobs numbers
2011-08-04 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point you can see that upside acceleration in the NYAD line stalled as witnessed by the MCO moving sharply lower indicating deceleration in this same direction of money
2011-08-04 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once all of the willing sellers were out
2011-08-04 17:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls again attempted to re-initiate their prior wave of capital moving into the market
2011-08-04 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we see
2011-08-04 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't quite enough backers this time around
2011-08-04 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we moved down and through the zero line again
2011-08-04 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then we also took out the lows of the early July decline in the process
2011-08-04 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was at this point in which the prior "thrust" was nullified
2011-08-04 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it a technical sell signal was issued by the MCO for the first time since the spring of 2010
2011-08-04 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see what happened after that
2011-08-04 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of trend
2011-08-04 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we are deeply "oversold"
2011-08-04 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turning our attention now to the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-08-04 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably the most valuable technical tool in anyone's trading arsenal
2011-08-04 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it allows the technician to see both amplitude and the speed in which money is moving in either direction at any given time
2011-08-04 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using this information then is highly beneficial in ascertaining how much money should be put to work on any trade made
2011-08-04 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: long or short
2011-08-04 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two main insights you can see just on a cursory view are
2011-08-04 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1) the individual postings of each dot show you how fast money is either moving in or out of the market at any given time since each posting is the cumulative total of each day's MCO reading
2011-08-04 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the MCO measures the speed in money is moving, this gives us a simple way of judging the character of a price pattern structure as to its probable longevity
2011-08-04 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to note here
2011-08-04 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that each total move in the MCSUM
2011-08-04 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a representation of how far between two time period EMA's are from each other depending on the directional flow of money as represented by the NYAD line
2011-08-04 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so each top beneath of top shows us that with each higher high in the NYAD line itself
2011-08-04 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was less and less money moving in to support this same structure direction
2011-08-04 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now many use this information as a simple divergence technique
2011-08-04 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they would be right in doing so as this is a really a simple oscillator
2011-08-04 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing that it takes time for waves of liquidity to move towards the shoreline
2011-08-04 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each top is only an indication that eventually, and dependent on its starting point, the final push of money to support the price structure is being pushed in this same direction
2011-08-04 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I hope I'm being clear here...if not, ask)
2011-08-04 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if you will note
2011-08-04 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually and customary on an historical basis
2011-08-04 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we only see the MCSUM either above or below its zero line for 2-3 months at a time
2011-08-04 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prior to the break below the +400 level that we see occur in June and its eventual zero line test
2011-08-04 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this specific MCSUM had been above its zero line since April of 2009
2011-08-04 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a very long time, yes
2011-08-04 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eventually we're going to need to provide some longer term balance to this overall structure
2011-08-04 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely, this is what we're likely to see for the next several months...the NYSE breadth MCSUM being under its zero line
2011-08-04 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...back to finish the thought
2011-08-04 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the bears were able to provide the numbers needed to slow the rate of a ascent in the NYAD line
2011-08-04 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical objective became for a neutral reading
2011-08-04 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is
2011-08-04 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to have balance between buyers and sellers (the zero line)
2011-08-04 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where from there one side can than take control
2011-08-04 17:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the the MCSUM was above its zero line for such a long period of time
2011-08-04 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first expectation is for the side has been in control ( no matter the time) to at least attempt to re-initiate this same controlling trend
2011-08-04 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this indeed occurred with the zero line bounce by the bulls last month and the thrust higher that followed
2011-08-04 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without getting into too much technical talk here
2011-08-04 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one and only objective for the bulls to move back above the +500 level on the MCSUM in order for this re-initiation of the ongoing trend to actually take place
2011-08-04 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see on the chart, this didn't happen
2011-08-04 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went...tired and exhausted
2011-08-04 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully now you have a somewhat better idea of why this current decline has been non stop
2011-08-04 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you had both a sell signal on the short term trend of money flow
2011-08-04 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-08-04 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sell came just at a point in which the bulls didn't have the muscle to again keep the price structure from collapsing altogether
2011-08-04 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went
2011-08-04 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we were exhausted
2011-08-04 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are now in control with not much of a fight by the bulls
2011-08-04 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to accentuate the degree of the decline
2011-08-04 17:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now notice that the NYSE breadth MCSUM just finished moving down and through its zero line
2011-08-04 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2011-08-04 17:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the EMA's on the NYAD chart
2011-08-04 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that as we moved down and through the zero line
2011-08-04 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA moved down and through the 39 day EMA
2011-08-04 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what the MCSUM is really is simple
2011-08-04 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the trend of the A/D line on an intermediate term basis
2011-08-04 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this trend is measured by the position between a short term EMA (19 day) and an intermediate term EMA (39 day)
2011-08-04 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else
2011-08-04 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you have been trading charts for any length of time and use moving averages
2011-08-04 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know how prices act and react with these same kind of moving averages
2011-08-04 17:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the advantage of the EMA is that it is more sensitive to change than that of a simple moving average
2011-08-04 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why those who got the MCO signal to sell on the 26th not only secured a great majority of the decline of the last week
2011-08-04 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also were able to make this switch near the top of the trading range itself
2011-08-04 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in our business...that's what it's all about
2011-08-04 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no emotion
2011-08-04 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no guessing
2011-08-04 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market instructed, and you react accordingly
2011-08-04 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?
2011-08-04 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the NAAD data for comparisons - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/naad080411.png
2011-08-04 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here the NASDAQ A/D line was only able to snapback up to its longer term "trend line" - the 1% Trend or the 200 day EMA
2011-08-04 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after peaking above this EMA
2011-08-04 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news came out about the jobs situation
2011-08-04 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the island reversal was in
2011-08-04 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went
2011-08-04 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...you might be saying that...well, if it wasn't for the jobs data we wouldn't had reversed
2011-08-04 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in a way you would be right
2011-08-04 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what we haven't looked at here is volume plurality and its measurement when using the McClellan tools
2011-08-04 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was our biggest irritant during the June bounce
2011-08-04 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at one point we had the expectation that volume was reinforcing the thrusts in breadth
2011-08-04 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike breadth, the intermediate trend of volume plurality remained pretty much below the MCSUM zero line all during the advance
2011-08-04 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without volume (heart) breadth has a hard time holding up a pricing structure
2011-08-04 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when the news came out
2011-08-04 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't any heart to support the body of the price structure
2011-08-04 17:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went
2011-08-04 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-08-04 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a combination of a lot of things that has led us to this juncture
2011-08-04 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the news events only serving to assign a reason why we've lost 11% in less than 10 trading days
2011-08-04 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-08-04 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it never did move above its zero line
2011-08-04 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was sorely needed so that the NAAD line itself could, in fact, remain above its longer term trend line (200 day EMA)
2011-08-04 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how these smaller period EMA's were only able to snapback to each other (the MCSUM zero line)
2011-08-04 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then just resumed its new direction of moving below this same 1% Trend line
2011-08-04 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...so far
2011-08-04 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the NAAD line looks to be unraveling at a great pace
2011-08-04 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the MCSUM here as our guide
2011-08-04 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's currently not as fast as it was when the line broke below its longer term EMA
2011-08-04 17:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that the downside momentum of money flow is starting to lessen a bit
2011-08-04 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this, in itself, is enough divergence to anticipate some sort of pause in this near term direction of the A/D line itself
2011-08-04 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be another reason to look for an exit here
2011-08-04 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (if your short, that is)
2011-08-04 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...lots of information with these tools
2011-08-04 17:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we pretty much go over this stuff every day
2011-08-04 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back to DP and quickly look through the rest of the index charts
2011-08-04 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO now has a reading of -110
2011-08-04 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is still remains above the March 2011 lows
2011-08-04 17:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the March lows of this MCO are taken out
2011-08-04 17:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that the price pattern itself will be able to move below these same comparable lows
2011-08-04 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the more likely outcome would be for a bounce off these same lows
2011-08-04 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is at the 2200 level
2011-08-04 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we closed today at 2207
2011-08-04 17:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless more selling comes in quickly
2011-08-04 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it continues to accelerate tomorrow
2011-08-04 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as "oversold" as we are right now
2011-08-04 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds favor some sort of bounce when all is said and done at the close on Friday
2011-08-04 17:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, and again I must stress, that could change in based on what happens in the morning
2011-08-04 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds suggest that we're likely to bounce here
2011-08-04 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we have reached our downside price targets on the cash SPX
2011-08-04 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with other MCO's as deeply "oversold" as they are
2011-08-04 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bounce here in the NDX will provide the opportunity for the NYA to snapback to or towards this same line of what was once its horizontal support
2011-08-04 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2011-08-04 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO now has a reading of -135
2011-08-04 17:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again, we are grossly "oversold" and due for some sort of reflex to relieve this condition
2011-08-04 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price chart
2011-08-04 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's price objectives of 1187 intraday and 1219 on the close are not only the levels in which we saw pattern support last November
2011-08-04 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also serves as snapback point to what was overhead resistance prior to the flash crash of last April
2011-08-04 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: together then, and given the underlying tone of the market mechanics, and we have some really good technical reasons why we're likely to find support near term, with a probable bounce into the early part of next week
2011-08-04 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the OEX chart pattern as well
2011-08-04 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the Dow has about 400 points it can go before reaching these same levels as the SnP's
2011-08-04 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall key here for this support
2011-08-04 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is whether or not we can keep the downside speed of money leaving the market at this maximum or not
2011-08-04 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take out the May lows of last year over the next day or so
2011-08-04 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned in the beginning
2011-08-04 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then open the door for a full retracement of the entire market advance from 2009
2011-08-04 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds though do not suggest this
2011-08-04 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would better odds if we had divergence in the NYAD line prior to this current decline
2011-08-04 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't
2011-08-04 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and historically speaking
2011-08-04 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has NEVER been a time since 1926 were a bear market has begun without the NYSE A/D line diverging first
2011-08-04 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, this time could be different
2011-08-04 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until it's proven otherwise
2011-08-04 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to go with the data given
2011-08-04 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML has now snapped back to its April highs now
2011-08-04 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having just broken its key support level of 420
2011-08-04 17:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we pretty much have the same situation with the total market index (Wilshire 5000 index)
2011-08-04 17:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-08-04 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-08-04 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are fairly high that after any near term follow through overnight to today's one day decline
2011-08-04 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market should find its legs by the afternoon and begin the process of filling the vacuum created by moving too far and too fast
2011-08-04 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-08-04 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will only be the first part in trying to create a foundational bottom from which prices can then stabilize
2011-08-04 17:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: noting the Elliott count
2011-08-04 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after any short term bounce or pause
2011-08-04 17:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have one more move lower that could terminate somewhere around the trading area supported by the markets last summer
2011-08-04 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-08-04 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the only ultimate downside price objective given by the McClellan Oscillator
2011-08-04 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only if the MCO lows of flash crash are broken where we can then anticipate a possible test of the 2009 lows
2011-08-04 17:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the subscribers
2011-08-04 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's finish off our usual review and move to the volume oscillators
2011-08-04 17:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are trashed
2011-08-04 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should have a rally attempt in the next two trading sessions
2011-08-04 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...at any time
2011-08-04 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the STVO's and VTO's are also highly "oversold"
2011-08-04 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a relief point is indicated near term
2011-08-04 17:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as soon as tomorrow
2011-08-04 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 4.24
2011-08-04 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is our second reading above 4 this week
2011-08-04 17:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.33
2011-08-04 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it difficult to decline too much more from here
2011-08-04 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-08-04 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the TRIN's shown on DP are pretty much as extreme as they're going to get
2011-08-04 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-08-04 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 7.13!!
2011-08-04 17:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2011-08-04 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the NASDAQ has finally moved to "oversold"
2011-08-04 18:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and check out the 21 and 55 day SMA's on the NASDAQ TRIN
2011-08-04 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like they are falling off a cliff
2011-08-04 18:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Total Market (which includes the AMEX) TRIN at 5.75
2011-08-04 18:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.15
2011-08-04 18:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so "oversold" there as well
2011-08-04 18:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bottom line is
2011-08-04 18:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we've had a nice 11% correction
2011-08-04 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now at a point in which we've become so "oversold" that a reflex or relief rally should take place
2011-08-04 18:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should happen here is that we should see breadth bounce first
2011-08-04 18:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then prices later on
2011-08-04 18:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might not see much in the way of fireworks to the upside on Friday
2011-08-04 18:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but early next week we're likely to see some follow through as the market attempts to regain its composure
2011-08-04 18:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions, comments,..anything else?
2011-08-04 18:03:45 [Message] turkey -> Chat: thanks Dave, anything on gold?
2011-08-04 18:04:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I don't really care for today's action as a 5 of a 3 wave-I'll behave, but you'll buy before me, LOL
2011-08-04 18:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was expecting it to close down today...did it?
2011-08-04 18:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2011-08-04 18:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day
2011-08-04 18:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so gold should close lower on Friday
2011-08-04 18:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high volume as well
2011-08-04 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2011-08-04 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold was sold to cover losing positions and margin calls
2011-08-04 18:05:37 [Message] turkey -> Chat: that is what I was thinking...it is a general and generals are sold last.
2011-08-04 18:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the upside objective remains at $1850
2011-08-04 18:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see it during the day Linda
2011-08-04 18:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and welcome...nice to see you!
2011-08-04 18:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think silver was up a dollar at the open
2011-08-04 18:06:25 [Message] turkey -> Chat: it is nice to be here...great stuff as always.
2011-08-04 18:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of a sudden it was back to break even
2011-08-04 18:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could feel people closing positions to go to cash
2011-08-04 18:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to cover
2011-08-04 18:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend in gold is over extended
2011-08-04 18:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bigger problem here near term
2011-08-04 18:07:29 [Message] turkey -> Chat: yep really thought so too..makes me also agree with your call for a near term rally, they kill the best last right before the rally. aapl got it too today.
2011-08-04 18:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the PM stocks never did confirm the latest highs in gold
2011-08-04 18:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...all of the leaders should had collapsed today
2011-08-04 18:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are usually the last to go
2011-08-04 18:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 7.13 TRIN on the NASDAQ was an indication of that
2011-08-04 18:08:38 [Message] turkey -> Chat: so true..
2011-08-04 18:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't even remember a TRIN that high on the NASDAQ
2011-08-04 18:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked it up on SC
2011-08-04 18:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were two higher readings
2011-08-04 18:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lows in 2008
2011-08-04 18:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lows in 2002
2011-08-04 18:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a 36 in early 99
2011-08-04 18:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the exception of 99
2011-08-04 18:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we got readings above 7 the market was "hammering" out a bottom
2011-08-04 18:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that it doesn't mean right now
2011-08-04 18:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the willing sellers are probably now out
2011-08-04 18:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take a slope of hope rally
2011-08-04 18:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a final purge to get Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley out of their positions
2011-08-04 18:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can start fresh
2011-08-04 18:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lastly
2011-08-04 18:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are here because of the invite
2011-08-04 18:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you think you would like to pursue this area of analysis
2011-08-04 18:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will find subscription links on this page above the chat box ( http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm )
2011-08-04 18:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's month to month
2011-08-04 18:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I have to earn your business each month
2011-08-04 18:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you think you would like to kick the tires...I would be honored if you joined us
2011-08-04 18:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...I hope you found the chat informative
2011-08-04 18:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the subs
2011-08-04 18:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have 3 days next week
2011-08-04 18:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
2011-08-04 18:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2011-08-04 18:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you missed anything tonight
2011-08-04 18:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to make today's transcripts public as well on Friday morning for your added review
2011-08-04 18:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I usually get them up before the cash market opens in the morning
2011-08-04 18:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-08-04 18:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-08-04 18:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-08-04 18:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-08-04 18:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-08-04 18:15:37 [Message] stockinvestor -> Chat: Thank you for the invite.
2011-08-04 18:15:47 [Message] nsppsn -> Chat: you too and thanks !!
2011-08-04 18:16:10 [Message] no_mind -> Chat: Thanks so much.
2011-08-04 18:17:29 [Message] turkey -> Chat: thanks again Dave and good night!



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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