Chat - 9/9/15 - Technical Watch Forum

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fib_1618

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Posted 1441888697	Reply with quote #1

2015-09-09 16:00:25 fib1618: good day 2015-09-09 16:00:29 fib1618: how is everyone? 2015-09-09 16:01:03 rite01: Doing real good and you? 2015-09-09 16:01:29 fib1618: well...better than yesterday, evidently...I remembered what day it is!! 2015-09-09 16:02:13 rite01: Yea happens to the best of us from time to time. Spooky was great 2015-09-09 16:04:05 rite01: Oh Thank you for having tonight's session 2015-09-09 16:04:37 fib1618: not a problem...it's the very least I can do since I screwed up 2015-09-09 16:04:50 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2015-09-09 16:05:34 fib1618: don't you love symmetrical triangles? 2015-09-09 16:05:55 fib1618: a traders best friend 2015-09-09 16:06:06 fib1618: but the volatility has been wild 2015-09-09 16:06:42 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started 2015-09-09 16:07:02 rite01: Plus your suggestion awhile back on setting up the Index's and Sectors like the Tick... it's sure works great at times like these 2015-09-09 16:07:05 fib1618: after moving just above the +25 level on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:07:21 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO snapped back all the way to the zero line today 2015-09-09 16:07:37 fib1618: coming in with a reading of zero 2015-09-09 16:07:49 fib1618: yes, it does Mike 2015-09-09 16:08:15 fib1618: it's always good to have as many meters on your dashboard as you can 2015-09-09 16:08:39 fib1618: looking at the CO components 2015-09-09 16:08:53 fib1618: and we see that we're still well below the zero line for both percentage Trends 2015-09-09 16:09:13 fib1618: and between the two tools 2015-09-09 16:09:30 fib1618: we can see how money is moving net sideways on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM 2015-09-09 16:09:41 fib1618: helping to confirm our triangle pattern configuration 2015-09-09 16:10:08 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO 2015-09-09 16:10:30 fib1618: and here we also snapped back toward the zero line today after moving slightly above the important +25 level on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:11:09 fib1618: so the good news near term is that there was an additional push by the buyers on Tuesday to help support the crash lows of 8/24 2015-09-09 16:11:21 fib1618: but the bad news is that this all vanished today 2015-09-09 16:11:46 fib1618: which suggests that we had an after holiday rush of buying/short covering on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:12:02 fib1618: and pretty much we're back to where we were on Friday before the holiday 2015-09-09 16:12:27 fib1618: also of note on the NYA price chart 2015-09-09 16:12:45 fib1618: is that we had an important reversal bar today 2015-09-09 16:12:56 rite01: Yes I saw that 2015-09-09 16:13:01 fib1618: as money attempted to push prices out of our current consolidation 2015-09-09 16:13:06 fib1618: and a failure resulted 2015-09-09 16:13:56 fib1618: this would then suggest that we will continue to have congestion near term, with an outside chance of a quick and sharp decline within the next couple of trading sessions 2015-09-09 16:14:04 fib1618: going back to our Elliott analysis from last week 2015-09-09 16:14:27 fib1618: yesterday satisfied wave "C" which took on a 3 wave structure 2015-09-09 16:15:13 fib1618: and topped out near the forecasted 1970 level on the SPX 2015-09-09 16:15:22 fib1618: wave "D is now underway 2015-09-09 16:15:37 fib1618: with a rally for wave "E" still to come 2015-09-09 16:15:48 fib1618: and we should then see a sharp thrust to the downside 2015-09-09 16:16:04 fib1618: could be in tune with next week's Fed meeting 2015-09-09 16:16:12 fib1618: but that's a Wednesday/Thursday affair 2015-09-09 16:16:35 fib1618: and it doesn't seem that we'll have enough here to wait around for the offering 2015-09-09 16:16:38 fib1618: meanwhile 2015-09-09 16:16:47 fib1618: and as mentioned over the weekend in the Breadth Data review 2015-09-09 16:17:28 fib1618: we continue to get more and more information that a rate hike will occur next week despite those who are now threatening the FED with a currency war 2015-09-09 16:17:46 fib1618: looking at the overnight Fed Funds rates 2015-09-09 16:18:23 fib1618: and it looks like it will be the Discount Rate that will be tighten on this first go around 2015-09-09 16:18:48 fib1618: which, should not have too much of a domino affect with the banks across the country 2015-09-09 16:18:55 fib1618: in theory, of course 2015-09-09 16:19:02 fib1618: but it's still a week away 2015-09-09 16:19:06 fib1618: so anything can happen 2015-09-09 16:19:13 fib1618: but whatever it may be 2015-09-09 16:19:36 fib1618: the odds right now suggest that we still have some unfinished business to attend to below current levels 2015-09-09 16:20:05 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2015-09-09 16:20:16 fib1618: and here we had a nice break above the +25 level on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:20:26 fib1618: peaking out at a +38 2015-09-09 16:20:37 fib1618: and we snapped back toward the +25 level today 2015-09-09 16:20:48 fib1618: coming in just below it with a +18 reading 2015-09-09 16:20:53 fib1618: generally speaking 2015-09-09 16:21:13 fib1618: when we see an "overthrow" this big below (in this case) below the +25 level 2015-09-09 16:21:24 fib1618: we're then likely to continue all the way back to the zero line 2015-09-09 16:21:28 fib1618: and reset the pattern 2015-09-09 16:21:37 fib1618: but for now 2015-09-09 16:21:59 fib1618: we stopped right on the short term rising bottoms line in the NASDAQ MCO 2015-09-09 16:22:09 fib1618: so maybe a bounce for wave E on Thursday and then down we go? 2015-09-09 16:22:47 fib1618: notice also that we did not be the 10% Trend above its zero line with Tuesday's +38 reading in the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2015-09-09 16:22:53 fib1618: and as we know all too well 2015-09-09 16:23:12 fib1618: everything must work together in order to reach a specific goal 2015-09-09 16:23:26 fib1618: so we got too much ahead of ourselves it would seem 2015-09-09 16:23:30 fib1618: and back and fill we go 2015-09-09 16:23:58 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO actually broke above its zero line on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:24:03 fib1618: but was only able to make to +25 2015-09-09 16:24:17 fib1618: and now it's back below the zero line suggesting a rally failure in progress 2015-09-09 16:24:33 fib1618: rally failures are OK...they're healthy in a way 2015-09-09 16:24:53 fib1618: since they tell us what's going to be eventually needed in order to break away from the bear market default 2015-09-09 16:24:57 fib1618: so in this case 2015-09-09 16:25:01 fib1618: minimally speaking 2015-09-09 16:25:10 fib1618: we needed a +25 or higher to break the back of this default 2015-09-09 16:25:15 fib1618: and we didn't get it 2015-09-09 16:25:19 fib1618: and back and fill we go 2015-09-09 16:25:28 fib1618: again 2015-09-09 16:25:36 fib1618: the development of internal bottoms is a process 2015-09-09 16:26:00 fib1618: there's a test, look around, see if they're any takers, if so...you move forward 2015-09-09 16:26:47 fib1618: but if there are none to be found...back you go in attempting to build up better platforms from which you can then not look back from 2015-09-09 16:27:05 fib1618: when we get the MCO above its zero line 2015-09-09 16:27:12 fib1618: and it's not confirmed by the components 2015-09-09 16:27:24 fib1618: this is like setting up a ladder to climb the side of a house 2015-09-09 16:27:35 fib1618: and having one foot on solid ground 2015-09-09 16:27:41 fib1618: and the other on soft dirt 2015-09-09 16:27:59 fib1618: you try to climb the ladder, but without this added support of the second foot, and you're liable to topple over before you get too far 2015-09-09 16:28:14 fib1618: just like we saw today 2015-09-09 16:28:33 fib1618: and with both components below zero 2015-09-09 16:28:43 fib1618: the ladder would be actually crooked to begin with 2015-09-09 16:28:54 fib1618: so not a lot of stability as yet 2015-09-09 16:29:11 fib1618: though there are many out there who see the ladder differently 2015-09-09 16:29:13 fib1618: 2015-09-09 16:30:04 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO wasn't able to stay above its zero line either after moving to a +22 reading on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:31:29 fib1618: and here we are back with a -21 reading today 2015-09-09 16:31:50 fib1618: so any strength brought to the table yesterday was taken off the table today 2015-09-09 16:32:01 fib1618: and this doesn't bode well for prices over the next couple of days 2015-09-09 16:32:22 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is actually showing weaker numbers here 2015-09-09 16:32:48 fib1618: with a +19 on Tuesday followed by today's -28 2015-09-09 16:33:07 fib1618: so there's some large cap weakness going on right now 2015-09-09 16:33:38 fib1618: same situation with the Dow 2015-09-09 16:33:43 fib1618: got to tell you 2015-09-09 16:34:31 fib1618: these kind of jagged MCO patterns that we see currently on the charts is pretty much standard fare after a "crash like" decline 2015-09-09 16:34:42 fib1618: as shorts cover in spurts 2015-09-09 16:35:05 fib1618: and this leaves open vacuums that are filled quite quickly since there are few new buyers 2015-09-09 16:35:14 fib1618: so it's a process 2015-09-09 16:35:43 fib1618: good to see...but the buyers still have work to do before it will mean anything 2015-09-09 16:36:26 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO came in with a +43 reading on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:36:43 fib1618: and has now lost all of this momentum with today's +3 2015-09-09 16:37:02 fib1618: just not enough buyers to support short covering rallies at this juncture 2015-09-09 16:37:11 fib1618: which also suggests 2015-09-09 16:37:21 fib1618: that there is very little fresh buying going on right now 2015-09-09 16:37:44 fib1618: while the shorts "give up" on their positions 2015-09-09 16:38:18 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO is looking a bit stronger now 2015-09-09 16:38:37 fib1618: as it peaked out on Tuesday with a +40 reading 2015-09-09 16:39:00 fib1618: but didn't give up as much today as it settled with a +9 reading 2015-09-09 16:39:22 fib1618: still...it's a lot to give up in a short amount of time 2015-09-09 16:40:31 fib1618: and we can see how this shows up in our intermediate term money flow indicator, the MCSUM, as it's moving higher, but the individual postings are on the congested side 2015-09-09 16:40:47 fib1618: showing not a whole lot of conviction 2015-09-09 16:41:28 fib1618: and a nice move to the +35 level on the TM breadth MCO on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:42:05 fib1618: with today's retracement finding support at the +12 level and the short term rising bottoms line seen on the chart 2015-09-09 16:43:03 fib1618: let's look at the volume side of the equation 2015-09-09 16:43:39 fib1618: in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's 2015-09-09 16:44:10 fib1618: we see that the short term trend of volume was actually leading breadth higher on Tuesday 2015-09-09 16:44:35 fib1618: and that's good news as we start to look for the pieces that help create a tradable low 2015-09-09 16:45:07 fib1618: and as with the breadth cousins 2015-09-09 16:45:21 fib1618: but of these MCO's also snapped back to their zero lines today 2015-09-09 16:45:33 fib1618: so...the market is pretty much back to neutral overall 2015-09-09 16:45:48 fib1618: with one side about to take control of the action 2015-09-09 16:45:53 fib1618: because of this 2015-09-09 16:46:10 fib1618: we should remain choppy and volatile over the next several sessions 2015-09-09 16:46:36 fib1618: as the battle between buyers and sellers attempt to out duel each other 2015-09-09 16:47:01 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is in sync with its breadth cousin 2015-09-09 16:47:22 fib1618: as is the NDX volume MCO 2015-09-09 16:47:49 fib1618: though we do see a bit more strength in leadership with volume over breadth right now 2015-09-09 16:48:14 fib1618: I just don't like what I'm seeing near term 2015-09-09 16:48:26 fib1618: as we're not getting any kind of follow through 2015-09-09 16:48:35 fib1618: and usually when this happens 2015-09-09 16:48:52 fib1618: the bear market default causes prices to sag 2015-09-09 16:49:08 fib1618: and if there's any kind of bad news 2015-09-09 16:49:11 fib1618: accelerate lower 2015-09-09 16:50:05 fib1618: the other important thing here is that, so far, all of the volume MCO's components are below their zero lines right now 2015-09-09 16:50:16 fib1618: so any kind of reflex higher is going to be short lived 2015-09-09 16:51:04 fib1618: both the NDX and SPX volume MCSUM's are trying their best to hold above the -750 level right now 2015-09-09 16:51:25 fib1618: showing how important this level might be if it's eventually broken 2015-09-09 16:52:19 fib1618: all of these volume MCSUM's are not showing any kind of "gusto" right now 2015-09-09 16:52:55 fib1618: which usually means that the buyers have no friends to back them up 2015-09-09 16:53:04 fib1618: and a bearish ambush can happen at any time 2015-09-09 16:53:14 fib1618: there's something bothering folks here 2015-09-09 16:53:23 fib1618: and I don't think its the FED anymore 2015-09-09 16:53:27 fib1618: that's been discounted 2015-09-09 16:53:34 fib1618: there's something else 2015-09-09 16:53:51 fib1618: look at Japan yesterday - up 7.71% 2015-09-09 16:53:57 fib1618: that's not healthy 2015-09-09 16:54:19 fib1618: when markets act and react on news related items 2015-09-09 16:54:30 fib1618: this becomes dangerous waters to tread 2015-09-09 16:54:38 rite01: Plus the engulfing down bars today and yesterdays + price then add a few price gaps to fill on the downside could mean lower low prices. 2015-09-09 16:55:09 fib1618: well...near term minimally 2015-09-09 16:55:37 fib1618: but the overall pattern, and WHERE these reversals are taking place, are more telling than the single bar itself 2015-09-09 16:55:54 fib1618: again 2015-09-09 16:56:38 fib1618: we're in a position here where we could see the MCO's that moved back below their zero lines today a day or two of snapback up toward the zero line again before we unwind completely 2015-09-09 16:56:55 fib1618: which would likely happen early next week 2015-09-09 16:56:59 fib1618: also of note 2015-09-09 16:57:00 rite01: OK thanks 2015-09-09 16:57:03 fib1618: today was WWW 2015-09-09 16:57:26 fib1618: and we're dealing with quarterly exchanges 2015-09-09 16:57:34 fib1618: which means rollovers into December 2015-09-09 16:59:20 fib1618: so we might have some "backwardation" in the futures markets going on here as well 2015-09-09 16:59:47 fib1618: just a guess...we would have to look at the futures contracts to know for sure 2015-09-09 17:00:08 fib1618: ah oh 2015-09-09 17:00:21 fib1618: both the MID and SML volume MCO's moved below last week's lows 2015-09-09 17:00:28 fib1618: so we're getting some breakdown there 2015-09-09 17:00:43 fib1618: still...as long as we remain above the MCO zero line 2015-09-09 17:01:03 fib1618: we could also be working with a complex bullish pattern as well 2015-09-09 17:01:31 fib1618: gosh 2015-09-09 17:01:44 fib1618: my spidey sense is telling me "no bueno" here 2015-09-09 17:01:59 rite01: meaning? 2015-09-09 17:02:20 fib1618: we're likely to see a hard reset here 2015-09-09 17:02:29 fib1618: meaning 2015-09-09 17:02:37 fib1618: that the current series of MCO bottoms will be broken 2015-09-09 17:02:55 fib1618: but we should hold and create divergent lows in the process 2015-09-09 17:02:57 fib1618: after that 2015-09-09 17:03:04 fib1618: things should begin to look better 2015-09-09 17:03:16 fib1618: we used the analogy of a sick patient 2015-09-09 17:03:29 fib1618: and in need to "letting go" 3 weeks ago 2015-09-09 17:03:41 fib1618: now it looks like the patient wants to get out of bed too fast 2015-09-09 17:03:49 fib1618: and is about to have a relapse of sorts 2015-09-09 17:04:25 fib1618: for the MID and SML volume MCO's 2015-09-09 17:04:36 fib1618: they have now been above their zero lines for 3 weeks 2015-09-09 17:04:57 fib1618: well...let's call it 2 1/2 2015-09-09 17:05:17 fib1618: and usually this about all we get after a large decline 2015-09-09 17:05:33 fib1618: maybe I'm being too sensitive here 2015-09-09 17:05:37 fib1618: <shrug> 2015-09-09 17:05:56 rite01: Don't thank so we will see 2015-09-09 17:06:01 fib1618: and after peaking out with a +35 on Tuesday 2015-09-09 17:06:27 fib1618: the TM volume MCO also pulled back today to a +6 2015-09-09 17:06:38 fib1618: one thing that we should see here 2015-09-09 17:07:02 fib1618: is that if we do see a break of the short term rising bottoms in the MCO's 2015-09-09 17:07:21 fib1618: we'll know when it actually does 2015-09-09 17:07:40 fib1618: could be one of those -400/-500 days on the INDU 2015-09-09 17:07:59 fib1618: let me check the futures - one sec 2015-09-09 17:08:21 fib1618: down sharply 2015-09-09 17:08:26 fib1618: but fair value is already discounted 2015-09-09 17:08:33 fib1618: so we'll call it weak 2015-09-09 17:09:35 fib1618: CVI's are being whipsawed unmercifully 2015-09-09 17:09:42 fib1618: so no help there 2015-09-09 17:09:58 fib1618: STVO's are still neutral 2015-09-09 17:10:07 fib1618: showing the power of the triangle 2015-09-09 17:10:18 fib1618: VTO's are still "oversold" 2015-09-09 17:10:27 fib1618: sigh...checking the TRIN's 2015-09-09 17:10:48 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 2.23 2015-09-09 17:11:02 fib1618: Open 10 at .93 2015-09-09 17:11:05 fib1618: neutral 2015-09-09 17:11:13 fib1618: not a good thing for the bulls 2015-09-09 17:11:30 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.24 2015-09-09 17:11:41 fib1618: Open 10 at .88 2015-09-09 17:11:44 fib1618: oh boy 2015-09-09 17:11:59 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.41 2015-09-09 17:12:09 fib1618: Open 10 at .89 2015-09-09 17:12:24 fib1618: we're beginning to coil now into the apex 2015-09-09 17:12:39 fib1618: which is exciting, of course 2015-09-09 17:12:46 fib1618: because we're about to get a breakout 2015-09-09 17:12:54 fib1618: and the more the coil 2015-09-09 17:12:57 fib1618: the bigger the move 2015-09-09 17:13:04 fib1618: sentiment wise 2015-09-09 17:13:44 fib1618: this must had been a very disappointing day for those looking for more movement back to the 200 day EMA's on the price charts 2015-09-09 17:13:47 fib1618: but if you look around 2015-09-09 17:14:07 fib1618: you'll notice that we found a brick wall at the 20 day EMA today 2015-09-09 17:14:24 fib1618: and now we're backing off and trying to regroup 2015-09-09 17:14:40 fib1618: nothing as yet suggesting that another attempt will be successful though 2015-09-09 17:14:44 fib1618: let's check the BETS 2015-09-09 17:15:40 fib1618: and look at all the rejections at the 19 day EMA today (10% Trend)! 2015-09-09 17:16:17 fib1618: -70 2015-09-09 17:16:57 fib1618: it's going to be very tough for the bulls to muster up any kind of rally that will cover more than 2 consecutive days with the BETS as deeply negative as it is right now 2015-09-09 17:17:13 fib1618: and because of this 2015-09-09 17:17:26 fib1618: let's continue to remain defensive 2015-09-09 17:17:33 fib1618: with bear market rules in force 2015-09-09 17:17:36 fib1618: that being 2015-09-09 17:17:43 fib1618: rallies will be short and swift 2015-09-09 17:17:56 fib1618: and we'll see retracements just as quickly 2015-09-09 17:18:02 fib1618: overall 2015-09-09 17:18:25 fib1618: there are indications that we're still in the process of laying a solid foundation of which to work from later on 2015-09-09 17:18:41 fib1618: but this 'later on" continues to have the early part of October written all over it 2015-09-09 17:18:56 fib1618: so we'll continue to work with that blueprint for now 2015-09-09 17:18:59 fib1618: anything else? 2015-09-09 17:19:01 rite01: Aussie down 1% first few minutes of trading... after being up over 2% yesterday.... shades of US recent market 2015-09-09 17:19:25 fib1618: the Aussie market has other problems 2015-09-09 17:19:33 fib1618: the precious metals for one 2015-09-09 17:19:42 fib1618: where we're due for a large down day there very soon 2015-09-09 17:19:47 fib1618: in fact 2015-09-09 17:19:59 fib1618: let me check the current gold price 2015-09-09 17:20:23 fib1618: looks like up $4.90 2015-09-09 17:20:25 fib1618: but wait 2015-09-09 17:20:33 fib1618: it's at $1106 2015-09-09 17:20:38 fib1618: we had a hard down today? 2015-09-09 17:20:40 fib1618: let me check 2015-09-09 17:20:58 fib1618: yes, down $15.60 2015-09-09 17:21:03 fib1618: like I said 2015-09-09 17:21:15 fib1618: it's due to decline hard here 2015-09-09 17:21:41 fib1618: especially when the realization that the we're going to see tightening by the FED next week 2015-09-09 17:22:04 rite01: Is $980 still on the table here? 2015-09-09 17:22:07 fib1618: yes 2015-09-09 17:22:10 fib1618: that's the objective 2015-09-09 17:22:19 fib1618: I think it's $986 2015-09-09 17:22:28 fib1618: but $980 will do 2015-09-09 17:22:30 fib1618: 2015-09-09 17:22:45 rite01: That's what I thought :blush: 2015-09-09 17:23:17 fib1618: once again...I really feel bad about yesterday...I will be better with my time management in the future 2015-09-09 17:23:42 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else 2015-09-09 17:23:46 fib1618: I'm going to take off 2015-09-09 17:23:47 rite01: Would you suggest 2015-09-09 17:24:00 fib1618: remember we have another chat on Thursday (tomorrow) 2015-09-09 17:24:06 fib1618: would I suggest what? 2015-09-09 17:24:41 rite01: Nothing yet I will clean up my question and present at tomorrows chat 2015-09-09 17:24:51 fib1618: fair enough 2015-09-09 17:25:10 fib1618: OK...everyone have a great day...and will chat with you tomorrow 2015-09-09 17:25:11 fib1618: good night 2015-09-09 17:25:31 rite01: Good night to All! __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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