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Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-09 16:00:25 fib1618: good day
2015-09-09 16:00:29 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-09 16:01:03 rite01: Doing real good and you?
2015-09-09 16:01:29 fib1618: well...better than yesterday, evidently...I remembered what day it is!!
2015-09-09 16:02:13 rite01: Yea happens to the best of us from time to time. Spooky was great
2015-09-09 16:04:05 rite01: Oh  Thank you for having tonight's session
2015-09-09 16:04:37 fib1618: not a's the very least I can do since I screwed up
2015-09-09 16:04:50 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-09 16:05:34 fib1618: don't you love symmetrical triangles?
2015-09-09 16:05:55 fib1618: a traders best friend
2015-09-09 16:06:06 fib1618: but the volatility has been wild
2015-09-09 16:06:42 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-09-09 16:07:02 rite01: Plus your suggestion awhile back on setting up the Index's and Sectors like the Tick... it's sure works great at times like these
2015-09-09 16:07:05 fib1618: after moving just above the +25 level on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:07:21 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO snapped back all the way to the zero line today
2015-09-09 16:07:37 fib1618: coming in with a reading of zero
2015-09-09 16:07:49 fib1618: yes, it does Mike
2015-09-09 16:08:15 fib1618: it's always good to have as many meters on your dashboard as you can
2015-09-09 16:08:39 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2015-09-09 16:08:53 fib1618: and we see that we're still well below the zero line for both percentage Trends
2015-09-09 16:09:13 fib1618: and between the two tools
2015-09-09 16:09:30 fib1618: we can see how money is moving net sideways on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-09-09 16:09:41 fib1618: helping to confirm our triangle pattern configuration
2015-09-09 16:10:08 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-09 16:10:30 fib1618: and here we also snapped back toward the zero line today after moving slightly above the important +25 level on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:11:09 fib1618: so the good news near term is that there was an additional push by the buyers on Tuesday to help support the crash lows of 8/24
2015-09-09 16:11:21 fib1618: but the bad news is that this all vanished today
2015-09-09 16:11:46 fib1618: which suggests that we had an after holiday rush of buying/short covering on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:12:02 fib1618: and pretty much we're back to where we were on Friday before the holiday
2015-09-09 16:12:27 fib1618: also of note on the NYA price chart
2015-09-09 16:12:45 fib1618: is that we had an important reversal bar today
2015-09-09 16:12:56 rite01: Yes I saw that
2015-09-09 16:13:01 fib1618: as money attempted to push prices out of our current consolidation
2015-09-09 16:13:06 fib1618: and a failure resulted
2015-09-09 16:13:56 fib1618: this would then suggest that we will continue to have congestion near term, with an outside chance of a quick and sharp decline within the next couple of trading sessions
2015-09-09 16:14:04 fib1618: going back to our Elliott analysis from last week
2015-09-09 16:14:27 fib1618: yesterday satisfied wave "C" which took on a 3 wave structure
2015-09-09 16:15:13 fib1618: and topped out near the forecasted 1970 level on the SPX
2015-09-09 16:15:22 fib1618: wave "D is now underway
2015-09-09 16:15:37 fib1618: with a rally for wave "E" still to come
2015-09-09 16:15:48 fib1618: and we should then see a sharp thrust to the downside
2015-09-09 16:16:04 fib1618: could be in tune with next week's Fed meeting
2015-09-09 16:16:12 fib1618: but that's a Wednesday/Thursday affair
2015-09-09 16:16:35 fib1618: and it doesn't seem that we'll have enough here to wait around for the offering
2015-09-09 16:16:38 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-09-09 16:16:47 fib1618: and as mentioned over the weekend in the Breadth Data review
2015-09-09 16:17:28 fib1618: we continue to get more and more information that a rate hike will occur next week despite those who are now threatening the FED with a currency war
2015-09-09 16:17:46 fib1618: looking at the overnight Fed Funds rates
2015-09-09 16:18:23 fib1618: and it looks like it will be the Discount Rate that will be tighten on this first go around
2015-09-09 16:18:48 fib1618: which, should not have too much of a domino affect with the banks across the country
2015-09-09 16:18:55 fib1618: in theory, of course
2015-09-09 16:19:02 fib1618: but it's still a week away
2015-09-09 16:19:06 fib1618: so anything can happen
2015-09-09 16:19:13 fib1618: but whatever it may be
2015-09-09 16:19:36 fib1618: the odds right now suggest that we still have some unfinished business to attend to below current levels
2015-09-09 16:20:05 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-09 16:20:16 fib1618: and here we had a nice break above the +25 level on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:20:26 fib1618: peaking out at a +38
2015-09-09 16:20:37 fib1618: and we snapped back toward the +25 level today
2015-09-09 16:20:48 fib1618: coming in just below it with a +18 reading
2015-09-09 16:20:53 fib1618: generally speaking
2015-09-09 16:21:13 fib1618: when we see an "overthrow" this big below (in this case) below the +25 level
2015-09-09 16:21:24 fib1618: we're then likely to continue all the way back to the zero line
2015-09-09 16:21:28 fib1618: and reset the pattern
2015-09-09 16:21:37 fib1618: but for now
2015-09-09 16:21:59 fib1618: we stopped right on the short term rising bottoms line in the NASDAQ MCO
2015-09-09 16:22:09 fib1618: so maybe a bounce for wave E on Thursday and then down we go?
2015-09-09 16:22:47 fib1618: notice also that we did not be the 10% Trend above its zero line with Tuesday's +38 reading in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-09 16:22:53 fib1618: and as we know all too well
2015-09-09 16:23:12 fib1618: everything must work together in order to reach a specific goal
2015-09-09 16:23:26 fib1618: so we got too much ahead of ourselves it would seem
2015-09-09 16:23:30 fib1618: and back and fill we go
2015-09-09 16:23:58 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO actually broke above its zero line on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:24:03 fib1618: but was only able to make to +25
2015-09-09 16:24:17 fib1618: and now it's back below the zero line suggesting a rally failure in progress
2015-09-09 16:24:33 fib1618: rally failures are OK...they're healthy in a way
2015-09-09 16:24:53 fib1618: since they tell us what's going to be eventually needed in order to break away from the bear market default
2015-09-09 16:24:57 fib1618: so in this case
2015-09-09 16:25:01 fib1618: minimally speaking
2015-09-09 16:25:10 fib1618: we needed a +25 or higher to break the back of this default
2015-09-09 16:25:15 fib1618: and we didn't get it
2015-09-09 16:25:19 fib1618: and back and fill we go
2015-09-09 16:25:28 fib1618: again
2015-09-09 16:25:36 fib1618: the development of internal bottoms is a process
2015-09-09 16:26:00 fib1618: there's a test, look around, see if they're any takers, if move forward
2015-09-09 16:26:47 fib1618: but if there are none to be found...back you go in attempting to build up better platforms from which you can then not look back from
2015-09-09 16:27:05 fib1618: when we get the MCO above its zero line
2015-09-09 16:27:12 fib1618: and it's not confirmed by the components
2015-09-09 16:27:24 fib1618: this is like setting up a ladder to climb the side of a house
2015-09-09 16:27:35 fib1618: and having one foot on solid ground
2015-09-09 16:27:41 fib1618: and the other on soft dirt
2015-09-09 16:27:59 fib1618: you try to climb the ladder, but without this added support of the second foot, and you're liable to topple over before you get too far
2015-09-09 16:28:14 fib1618: just like we saw today
2015-09-09 16:28:33 fib1618: and with both components below zero
2015-09-09 16:28:43 fib1618: the ladder would be actually crooked to begin with
2015-09-09 16:28:54 fib1618: so not a lot of stability as yet
2015-09-09 16:29:11 fib1618: though there are many out there who see the ladder differently
2015-09-09 16:29:13 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-09 16:30:04 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO wasn't able to stay above its zero line either after moving to a +22 reading on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:31:29 fib1618: and here we are back with a -21 reading today
2015-09-09 16:31:50 fib1618: so any strength brought to the table yesterday was taken off the table today
2015-09-09 16:32:01 fib1618: and this doesn't bode well for prices over the next couple of days
2015-09-09 16:32:22 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is actually showing weaker numbers here
2015-09-09 16:32:48 fib1618: with a +19 on Tuesday followed by today's -28
2015-09-09 16:33:07 fib1618: so there's some large cap weakness going on right now
2015-09-09 16:33:38 fib1618: same situation with the Dow
2015-09-09 16:33:43 fib1618: got to tell you
2015-09-09 16:34:31 fib1618: these kind of jagged MCO patterns that we see currently on the charts is pretty much standard fare after a "crash like" decline
2015-09-09 16:34:42 fib1618: as shorts cover in spurts
2015-09-09 16:35:05 fib1618: and this leaves open vacuums that are filled quite quickly since there are few new buyers
2015-09-09 16:35:14 fib1618: so it's a process
2015-09-09 16:35:43 fib1618: good to see...but the buyers still have work to do before it will mean anything
2015-09-09 16:36:26 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO came in with a +43 reading on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:36:43 fib1618: and has now lost all of this momentum with today's +3
2015-09-09 16:37:02 fib1618: just not enough buyers to support short covering rallies at this juncture
2015-09-09 16:37:11 fib1618: which also suggests
2015-09-09 16:37:21 fib1618: that there is very little fresh buying going on right now
2015-09-09 16:37:44 fib1618: while the shorts "give up" on their positions
2015-09-09 16:38:18 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO is looking a bit stronger now
2015-09-09 16:38:37 fib1618: as it peaked out on Tuesday with a +40 reading
2015-09-09 16:39:00 fib1618: but didn't give up as much today as it settled with a +9 reading
2015-09-09 16:39:22 fib1618:'s a lot to give up in a short amount of time
2015-09-09 16:40:31 fib1618: and we can see how this shows up in our intermediate term money flow indicator, the MCSUM, as it's moving higher, but the individual postings are on the congested side
2015-09-09 16:40:47 fib1618: showing not a whole lot of conviction
2015-09-09 16:41:28 fib1618: and a nice move to the +35 level on the TM breadth MCO on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:42:05 fib1618: with today's retracement finding support at the +12 level and the short term rising bottoms line seen on the chart
2015-09-09 16:43:03 fib1618: let's look at the volume side of the equation
2015-09-09 16:43:39 fib1618: in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2015-09-09 16:44:10 fib1618: we see that the short term trend of volume was actually leading breadth higher on Tuesday
2015-09-09 16:44:35 fib1618: and that's good news as we start to look for the pieces that help create a tradable low
2015-09-09 16:45:07 fib1618: and as with the breadth cousins
2015-09-09 16:45:21 fib1618: but of these MCO's also snapped back to their zero lines today
2015-09-09 16:45:33 fib1618: so...the market is pretty much back to neutral overall
2015-09-09 16:45:48 fib1618: with one side about to take control of the action
2015-09-09 16:45:53 fib1618: because of this
2015-09-09 16:46:10 fib1618: we should remain choppy and volatile over the next several sessions
2015-09-09 16:46:36 fib1618: as the battle between buyers and sellers attempt to out duel each other
2015-09-09 16:47:01 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is in sync with its breadth cousin
2015-09-09 16:47:22 fib1618: as is the NDX volume MCO
2015-09-09 16:47:49 fib1618: though we do see a bit more strength in leadership with volume over breadth right now
2015-09-09 16:48:14 fib1618: I just don't like what I'm seeing near term
2015-09-09 16:48:26 fib1618: as we're not getting any kind of follow through
2015-09-09 16:48:35 fib1618: and usually when this happens
2015-09-09 16:48:52 fib1618: the bear market default causes prices to sag
2015-09-09 16:49:08 fib1618: and if there's any kind of bad news
2015-09-09 16:49:11 fib1618: accelerate lower
2015-09-09 16:50:05 fib1618: the other important thing here is that, so far, all of the volume MCO's components are below their zero lines right now
2015-09-09 16:50:16 fib1618: so any kind of reflex higher is going to be short lived
2015-09-09 16:51:04 fib1618: both the NDX and SPX volume MCSUM's are trying their best to hold above the -750 level right now
2015-09-09 16:51:25 fib1618: showing how important this level might be if it's eventually broken
2015-09-09 16:52:19 fib1618: all of these volume MCSUM's are not showing any kind of "gusto" right now
2015-09-09 16:52:55 fib1618: which usually means that the buyers have no friends to back them up
2015-09-09 16:53:04 fib1618: and a bearish ambush can happen at any time
2015-09-09 16:53:14 fib1618: there's something bothering folks here
2015-09-09 16:53:23 fib1618: and I don't think its the FED anymore
2015-09-09 16:53:27 fib1618: that's been discounted
2015-09-09 16:53:34 fib1618: there's something else
2015-09-09 16:53:51 fib1618: look at Japan yesterday - up 7.71%
2015-09-09 16:53:57 fib1618: that's not healthy
2015-09-09 16:54:19 fib1618: when markets act and react on news related items
2015-09-09 16:54:30 fib1618: this becomes dangerous waters to tread
2015-09-09 16:54:38 rite01: Plus the engulfing down bars today and yesterdays + price then add a few price gaps to fill on the downside could mean lower low prices.
2015-09-09 16:55:09 fib1618: well...near term minimally
2015-09-09 16:55:37 fib1618: but the overall pattern, and WHERE these reversals are taking place, are more telling than the single bar itself
2015-09-09 16:55:54 fib1618: again
2015-09-09 16:56:38 fib1618: we're in a position here where we could see the MCO's that moved back below their zero lines today a day or two of snapback up toward the zero line again before we unwind completely
2015-09-09 16:56:55 fib1618: which would likely happen early next week
2015-09-09 16:56:59 fib1618: also of note
2015-09-09 16:57:00 rite01: OK thanks
2015-09-09 16:57:03 fib1618: today was WWW
2015-09-09 16:57:26 fib1618: and we're dealing with quarterly exchanges
2015-09-09 16:57:34 fib1618: which means rollovers into December
2015-09-09 16:59:20 fib1618: so we might have some "backwardation" in the futures markets going on here as well
2015-09-09 16:59:47 fib1618: just a guess...we would have to look at the futures contracts to know for sure
2015-09-09 17:00:08 fib1618: ah oh
2015-09-09 17:00:21 fib1618: both the MID and SML volume MCO's moved below last week's lows
2015-09-09 17:00:28 fib1618: so we're getting some breakdown there
2015-09-09 17:00:43 fib1618: long as we remain above the MCO zero line
2015-09-09 17:01:03 fib1618: we could also be working with a complex bullish pattern as well
2015-09-09 17:01:31 fib1618: gosh
2015-09-09 17:01:44 fib1618: my spidey sense is telling me "no bueno" here
2015-09-09 17:01:59 rite01: meaning?
2015-09-09 17:02:20 fib1618: we're likely to see a hard reset here
2015-09-09 17:02:29 fib1618: meaning
2015-09-09 17:02:37 fib1618: that the current series of MCO bottoms will be broken
2015-09-09 17:02:55 fib1618: but we should hold and create divergent lows in the process
2015-09-09 17:02:57 fib1618: after that
2015-09-09 17:03:04 fib1618: things should begin to look better
2015-09-09 17:03:16 fib1618: we used the analogy of a sick patient
2015-09-09 17:03:29 fib1618: and in need to "letting go" 3 weeks ago
2015-09-09 17:03:41 fib1618: now it looks like the patient wants to get out of bed too fast
2015-09-09 17:03:49 fib1618: and is about to have a relapse of sorts
2015-09-09 17:04:25 fib1618: for the MID and SML volume MCO's
2015-09-09 17:04:36 fib1618: they have now been above their zero lines for 3 weeks
2015-09-09 17:04:57 fib1618: well...let's call it 2 1/2
2015-09-09 17:05:17 fib1618: and usually this about all we get after a large decline
2015-09-09 17:05:33 fib1618: maybe I'm being too sensitive here
2015-09-09 17:05:37 fib1618: <shrug>
2015-09-09 17:05:56 rite01: Don't thank so we will see
2015-09-09 17:06:01 fib1618: and after peaking out with a +35 on Tuesday
2015-09-09 17:06:27 fib1618: the TM volume MCO also pulled back today to a +6
2015-09-09 17:06:38 fib1618: one thing that we should see here
2015-09-09 17:07:02 fib1618: is that if we do see a break of the short term rising bottoms in the MCO's
2015-09-09 17:07:21 fib1618: we'll know when it actually does
2015-09-09 17:07:40 fib1618: could be one of those -400/-500 days on the INDU
2015-09-09 17:07:59 fib1618: let me check the futures - one sec
2015-09-09 17:08:21 fib1618: down sharply
2015-09-09 17:08:26 fib1618: but fair value is already discounted
2015-09-09 17:08:33 fib1618: so we'll call it weak
2015-09-09 17:09:35 fib1618: CVI's are being whipsawed unmercifully
2015-09-09 17:09:42 fib1618: so no help there
2015-09-09 17:09:58 fib1618: STVO's are still neutral
2015-09-09 17:10:07 fib1618: showing the power of the triangle
2015-09-09 17:10:18 fib1618: VTO's are still "oversold"
2015-09-09 17:10:27 fib1618: sigh...checking the TRIN's
2015-09-09 17:10:48 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 2.23
2015-09-09 17:11:02 fib1618: Open 10 at .93
2015-09-09 17:11:05 fib1618: neutral
2015-09-09 17:11:13 fib1618: not a good thing for the bulls
2015-09-09 17:11:30 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.24
2015-09-09 17:11:41 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-09-09 17:11:44 fib1618: oh boy
2015-09-09 17:11:59 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.41
2015-09-09 17:12:09 fib1618: Open 10 at .89
2015-09-09 17:12:24 fib1618: we're beginning to coil now into the apex
2015-09-09 17:12:39 fib1618: which is exciting, of course
2015-09-09 17:12:46 fib1618: because we're about to get a breakout
2015-09-09 17:12:54 fib1618: and the more the coil
2015-09-09 17:12:57 fib1618: the bigger the move
2015-09-09 17:13:04 fib1618: sentiment wise
2015-09-09 17:13:44 fib1618: this must had been a very disappointing day for those looking for more movement back to the 200 day EMA's on the price charts
2015-09-09 17:13:47 fib1618: but if you look around
2015-09-09 17:14:07 fib1618: you'll notice that we found a brick wall at the 20 day EMA today
2015-09-09 17:14:24 fib1618: and now we're backing off and trying to regroup
2015-09-09 17:14:40 fib1618: nothing as yet suggesting that another attempt will be successful though
2015-09-09 17:14:44 fib1618: let's check the BETS
2015-09-09 17:15:40 fib1618: and look at all the rejections at the 19 day EMA today (10% Trend)!
2015-09-09 17:16:17 fib1618: -70
2015-09-09 17:16:57 fib1618: it's going to be very tough for the bulls to muster up any kind of rally that will cover more than 2 consecutive days with the BETS as deeply negative as it is right now
2015-09-09 17:17:13 fib1618: and because of this
2015-09-09 17:17:26 fib1618: let's continue to remain defensive
2015-09-09 17:17:33 fib1618: with bear market rules in force
2015-09-09 17:17:36 fib1618: that being
2015-09-09 17:17:43 fib1618: rallies will be short and swift
2015-09-09 17:17:56 fib1618: and we'll see retracements just as quickly
2015-09-09 17:18:02 fib1618: overall
2015-09-09 17:18:25 fib1618: there are indications that we're still in the process of laying a solid foundation of which to work from later on
2015-09-09 17:18:41 fib1618: but this 'later on" continues to have the early part of October written all over it
2015-09-09 17:18:56 fib1618: so we'll continue to work with that blueprint for now
2015-09-09 17:18:59 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-09 17:19:01 rite01: Aussie down 1% first few minutes of trading... after being up over 2% yesterday....  shades of US recent market
2015-09-09 17:19:25 fib1618: the Aussie market has other problems
2015-09-09 17:19:33 fib1618: the precious metals for one
2015-09-09 17:19:42 fib1618: where we're due for a large down day there very soon
2015-09-09 17:19:47 fib1618: in fact
2015-09-09 17:19:59 fib1618: let me check the current gold price
2015-09-09 17:20:23 fib1618: looks like up $4.90
2015-09-09 17:20:25 fib1618: but wait
2015-09-09 17:20:33 fib1618: it's at $1106
2015-09-09 17:20:38 fib1618: we had a hard down today?
2015-09-09 17:20:40 fib1618: let me check
2015-09-09 17:20:58 fib1618: yes, down $15.60
2015-09-09 17:21:03 fib1618: like I said
2015-09-09 17:21:15 fib1618: it's due to decline hard here
2015-09-09 17:21:41 fib1618: especially when the realization that the we're going to see tightening by the FED next week
2015-09-09 17:22:04 rite01: Is $980 still on the table here?
2015-09-09 17:22:07 fib1618: yes
2015-09-09 17:22:10 fib1618: that's the objective
2015-09-09 17:22:19 fib1618: I think it's $986
2015-09-09 17:22:28 fib1618: but $980 will do
2015-09-09 17:22:30 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-09 17:22:45 rite01: That's what I thought  :blush:
2015-09-09 17:23:17 fib1618: once again...I really feel bad about yesterday...I will be better with my time management in the future
2015-09-09 17:23:42 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-09 17:23:46 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-09-09 17:23:47 rite01: Would you suggest
2015-09-09 17:24:00 fib1618: remember we have another chat on Thursday (tomorrow)
2015-09-09 17:24:06 fib1618: would I suggest what?
2015-09-09 17:24:41 rite01: Nothing yet I will clean up my question and present at tomorrows chat
2015-09-09 17:24:51 fib1618: fair enough
2015-09-09 17:25:10 fib1618: OK...everyone have a great day...and will chat with you tomorrow
2015-09-09 17:25:11 fib1618: good night
2015-09-09 17:25:31 rite01: Good night to All!

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