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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,529
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-09 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-09 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-09 16:00:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, you?
2014-09-09 16:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks for asking
2014-09-09 16:01:06 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great and has your business picked up yet?
2014-09-09 16:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: scratching and clawing its way...nothing worth mentioning at this point
2014-09-09 16:02:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Patience It will come
2014-09-09 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...business can't be as bad as it was in July and August...worse since 1992 [frown]
2014-09-09 16:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-09-09 16:04:25 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: You have changed your picture at TT any reason? I miss Gollum
2014-09-09 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2014-09-09 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gosh...I had nothing but complaints about Gollum..I thought I would give them a "kinder, gentler Fib"!
2014-09-09 16:05:46 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK I see what you mean
2014-09-09 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-09-09 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after failing to make a higher high today
2014-09-09 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Common Only McClellan Oscillator (MCO) moved sharply lower and we wound up back below the zero line today with a reading of -32
2014-09-09 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now what makes this a bit eyebrow raiser is that we usually see a move to around the -25 level and then maybe a bounce
2014-09-09 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a move to the -32 area is a bit "different"
2014-09-09 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-09-09 16:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend also moved back below its zero line today
2014-09-09 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Trend remains above this same line of neutrality
2014-09-09 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...when we have a disagreement between the oscillator and its components we should expect corrective activity in prices
2014-09-09 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth McClellan Summation Index (MCSUM)
2014-09-09 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it turned lower today after peaking out yesterday with a +413 reading
2014-09-09 16:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is still a bit short of the target objective of +500
2014-09-09 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bigger picture wise
2014-09-09 16:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the CO MCSUM now showing relative divergence with the previous price top made over the summer
2014-09-09 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a possibility of a double top in progress in the NYA
2014-09-09 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember though
2014-09-09 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Common Only stocks that trade on the NYSE have been lagging with the recent advance
2014-09-09 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any kind of down day is apt to be more noticeable in the commons
2014-09-09 16:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after getting our expected bounce off the zero line
2014-09-09 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved sharply back below the zero line today
2014-09-09 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ending up with a reading of -37
2014-09-09 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2014-09-09 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend moved just below its zero line today
2014-09-09 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Trend remains nicely above this same demarcation line
2014-09-09 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% at the zero line though
2014-09-09 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (well, just below it at a -17)
2014-09-09 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next technical expectation would be to see a bounce higher as soon as Wednesday
2014-09-09 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...looking at the calendar is good old WWW
2014-09-09 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see quite a bit of pushing and shoving tomorrow regardless
2014-09-09 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now back to a +540 reading
2014-09-09 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after topping out at just above the +600 level
2014-09-09 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2014-09-09 16:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation from last Thursday of a possible extension into this week of the weakness we saw on Thursday seems to have been the right call for now
2014-09-09 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this break below the zero line
2014-09-09 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw a break to the downside in prices from last week's price consolidation
2014-09-09 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it looks like 10,900 should provide support on any further decay that we might see near term
2014-09-09 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2014-09-09 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we get to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-09-09 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it also moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-09 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ MCO components also moving back below their zero lines as well giving us a technical sell signal
2014-09-09 16:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worse yet
2014-09-09 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-09-09 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we've barely been able to move away from the zero line
2014-09-09 16:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today with a +46 reading
2014-09-09 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would appear that we're likely to see a zero line test on this MCSUM in the next couple of trading days
2014-09-09 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2014-09-09 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's -16 reading on the NASDAQ breadth MCO landed right on the rising bottoms line connecting the two July lows
2014-09-09 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be a good time for the buyers to step in near term
2014-09-09 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break of this trendline support, however, would provide pattern weakness going into September OPEX
2014-09-09 16:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is kind of unusual
2014-09-09 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the ISEE number today came in at 80
2014-09-09 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the demarcation where the put speculators become a bit frothy in their opinions
2014-09-09 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-09 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we still have both components well above their zero line
2014-09-09 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest that we're in a corrective process that will either take the appearance of a trading range or a triangle
2014-09-09 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the daily price pattern on the 21 day close up chart
2014-09-09 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see the outline of a bearish inverted symmetrical triangle
2014-09-09 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have the outside chance here that we'll see a move back to around the 4000 level on any breakdown from this same triangle pattern
2014-09-09 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...by the way
2014-09-09 16:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is where we have our pattern gap on the daily
2014-09-09 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall here
2014-09-09 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX is likely to keep the broader NASDAQ from "falling apart"
2014-09-09 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing there to suggest anything more than a "pause to refresh" in progress
2014-09-09 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2014-09-09 16:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we moved sharply lower
2014-09-09 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back below the zero line
2014-09-09 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the NDX
2014-09-09 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth components remain above their zero lines
2014-09-09 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect corrective behavior over the short term
2014-09-09 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 1 year price chart of the SPX
2014-09-09 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's intraday low also satisfied a simple snapback to the old highs over the summer
2014-09-09 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the current configurations in the SPX Components and the SPX breadth MCSUM
2014-09-09 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could had very well hit our price pattern lows of any trading range that might develop from here
2014-09-09 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX data
2014-09-09 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see pretty much an echo of the SPX MCO and MCSUM
2014-09-09 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the SPX and OEX breadth MCSUM's topping out at around the +810 level
2014-09-09 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can put the Dow data in the same pot
2014-09-09 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow breadth MCSUM topping out at around the +775 level
2014-09-09 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bit above the +750 level
2014-09-09 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not enough to provide the kind of thrust needed to carry forward
2014-09-09 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2014-09-09 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it too moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-09 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend settling at a +3 reading
2014-09-09 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see some sort of reflex bounce here as soon as Wednesday
2014-09-09 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the SML breadth MCO was not spared today
2014-09-09 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it finally broke its zero line support from last week and finished up with a -29 reading
2014-09-09 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should see a technical bounce as soon as tomorrow
2014-09-09 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML components though
2014-09-09 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that both the 10% and 5% Trends ended up below their zero lines today
2014-09-09 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the NASDAQ
2014-09-09 16:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a technical sell signal here as well
2014-09-09 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember, of course
2014-09-09 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the SML was giving us a "shot off the bow" a week ago Thursday that this might take place
2014-09-09 16:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now
2014-09-09 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're seeing the SML breadth MCSUM turning lower from a high of just under the +200 level
2014-09-09 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not good news for the intermediate term trend
2014-09-09 16:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least at this point it isn't
2014-09-09 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the sweep
2014-09-09 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Total Market (TM) breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2014-09-09 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Component also joining the MCO
2014-09-09 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Component remains above zero indicating that a corrective sequence is underway
2014-09-09 16:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-09 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are back to a "hold" position based on the unanimous decision by all the breadth MCO's go back below their zero line today
2014-09-09 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while waiting for more information on what the next likely course of direction might take internally
2014-09-09 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally, of course
2014-09-09 16:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after any and all breaks above or below the MCO and MCSUM zero lines
2014-09-09 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually see a snapback attempt to or toward this same violation
2014-09-09 16:53:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Does the relative inability of the Naz and smalls summation to progress very far North of zero increase the possibility of summation failure to you?
2014-09-09 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with several of the indices showing a probable bounce near term
2014-09-09 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should meet that expectation without too much of a problem
2014-09-09 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can Lew
2014-09-09 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guidelines are there
2014-09-09 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that the NASDAQ advance/decline line has been lagging during the August run up...
2014-09-09 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the SML
2014-09-09 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it was a big enough decline in money flow in which we saw the NYAD line move back to a corrective bullish configuration
2014-09-09 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was 2.34:1 negative on the NYSE
2014-09-09 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 2.19:1 on the NASDAQ
2014-09-09 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bad really
2014-09-09 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just that the EMA had more weight after the last week or so of sideways and small point changes
2014-09-09 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now looking at the A/D lines
2014-09-09 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also should be mentioned that today's decline in the NASDAQ AD line
2014-09-09 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was able to move down and through all three of its EMA's
2014-09-09 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that takes a lot of strength to do so
2014-09-09 16:58:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ouch
2014-09-09 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID AD line settled right on the 19 day EMA today
2014-09-09 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX, SPX, OEX and Dow are still well above this same short term EMA
2014-09-09 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML AD line moved down and through the 19 and 39 day EMA today
2014-09-09 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still above the 1% Trend (200 day EMA)
2014-09-09 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after looking at the AD lines though
2014-09-09 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be surprising if we had some follow through selling on Wednesday
2014-09-09 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where all the A/D lines would then be able to bounce off either their 19 day or 39 day EMA's (10% and 5% Trends respectively)
2014-09-09 17:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll have to see how things sort out next week
2014-09-09 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the volume side of things might help in giving that answer, so let's take a look over there
2014-09-09 17:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO continues to be in sync with its breadth cousin
2014-09-09 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today at the -36 level
2014-09-09 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Component also moving below its zero line today
2014-09-09 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now pushed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM back to below the important +500 level
2014-09-09 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, if the buyers don't step in here, could be a longer term sell signal for this basket of stocks
2014-09-09 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's not only important to move back to the +500 level after a correctional process
2014-09-09 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in order to reach enough "escape velocity" from the bear market default
2014-09-09 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers must be able to provide continued strength to break free of this same default
2014-09-09 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2014-09-09 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about during the July unwinding process
2014-09-09 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then provided the necessary intermediate term bearish divergence to where a change in trend is possible
2014-09-09 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not probable
2014-09-09 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just something to be aware of
2014-09-09 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the market sellers are able to build on that
2014-09-09 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the odds begin to increase in looking for this technical outcome
2014-09-09 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-09-09 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's enough to call a "full stop" in any buying at this time
2014-09-09 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the NYSE Composite volume MCO and MCSUM
2014-09-09 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we remain a bit more buoyant than with the commons
2014-09-09 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good news since it tells us that the interest rate sensitive issues are still being supported by and large
2014-09-09 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then lends to the idea that this is, in fact, a simple pause to refresh
2014-09-09 17:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO also moved below its zero line today
2014-09-09 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is just below the +978 level
2014-09-09 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will make it very hard for the sellers to mount up much more than just a short and choppy price pattern structure
2014-09-09 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, again, lends to the idea that we're most likely in a corrective sequence
2014-09-09 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2014-09-09 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also suggests that a change of trend is not likely
2014-09-09 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would take readings closer to the MCSUM zero lines to make such assumptions
2014-09-09 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX volume MCSUM
2014-09-09 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's at a +1470 reading
2014-09-09 17:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making it almost impossible for the sellers to form any resemblance of a trending sequence to the downside
2014-09-09 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is just too much buyer imbalance in the system to do so
2014-09-09 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the real world
2014-09-09 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then result in short declines
2014-09-09 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe for a half a day
2014-09-09 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the market would rebound intraday
2014-09-09 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like trying to keep a basketball below the water line in the deep end of swimming pool
2014-09-09 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the pressure is there to keep it there
2014-09-09 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will stay submerged
2014-09-09 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once this same pressure is lifted
2014-09-09 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball zooms back above the surface of the water
2014-09-09 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much like we saw at the open today
2014-09-09 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the rebound in to lunch
2014-09-09 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before more selling "pressure" pushed the ball back down
2014-09-09 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX volume MCO and components also say correction
2014-09-09 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as does the OEX volume MCO
2014-09-09 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO, however, only marginally moved to a lower low today
2014-09-09 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the Dow stocks were, on balance, being supported
2014-09-09 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "smells like" the energy stocks got the hit today
2014-09-09 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO also moved back below its zero line today
2014-09-09 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components remain above theirs
2014-09-09 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a textbook breakdown in the SML volume MCO
2014-09-09 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it stalled out at the -25 level
2014-09-09 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 5% component remaining above its zero line
2014-09-09 17:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a technical bounce there near term
2014-09-09 17:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO moved sharply below its zero line today
2014-09-09 17:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM volume MCSUM remains well above the +750 level with a reading of +853
2014-09-09 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making it tough going for the sellers to mount up anything more than a intraday to maybe a one day decline before we'll likely see recovery
2014-09-09 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-09 17:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we're in a "hit and run" trading environment for the next several days
2014-09-09 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all of the breadth and volume MCO's moving to below their zero lines
2014-09-09 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MCSUM's continue to remain above their zero lines
2014-09-09 17:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the two...we're likely to see just a choppy market for the near term
2014-09-09 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what some would say to be a "digestion" period
2014-09-09 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it's the feeling of another shoe about to drop overseas geopolitically
2014-09-09 17:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money was definitely taken off the table today
2014-09-09 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume oscillators
2014-09-09 17:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line break downs on all of the CVI's
2014-09-09 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing here indicating climactic behavior as yet
2014-09-09 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...one side was about to take control last week? [smile]
2014-09-09 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now neutral
2014-09-09 17:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and entitled to a near term bounce
2014-09-09 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are showing tops beneath tops action except for the NDX VTO which continues to be "overbought"
2014-09-09 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully this the market's way to rid itself of its "overbought" Open 10 readings of the last week
2014-09-09 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.13
2014-09-09 17:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of selling
2014-09-09 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Open 10 is back to being minimally "oversold" at 1.02
2014-09-09 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At 1.22
2014-09-09 17:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2014-09-09 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better...but still a ways to go to being "oversold"
2014-09-09 17:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one worry, of course, is the 21 day SMA of the NASDAQ TRIN
2014-09-09 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the current "overbought" extreme needs to be relieved before we'll likely to build on this past weeks strength
2014-09-09 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.23
2014-09-09 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .90
2014-09-09 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral there
2014-09-09 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when a breadth oscillator is neutral
2014-09-09 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can then take control on a near term basis
2014-09-09 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-09 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our probable expectation from last week that some sort of digestion period for this week seems to be working out
2014-09-09 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a majority of MCO's all moving in tandem to the downside
2014-09-09 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this instructs us that it's probably going to take the better part of a week to sort things out
2014-09-09 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there was purpose that goes along with such breakdowns
2014-09-09 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all for one...one for all [smile]
2014-09-09 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to respect this for what it MAY imply
2014-09-09 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS prelim...one moment
2014-09-09 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +40
2014-09-09 17:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "hold with protective bearish stops (below market)"
2014-09-09 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the BETS on Saturday...+65?
2014-09-09 17:31:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-09-09 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breadth charts took a quite a hit today
2014-09-09 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TSX venture charts do not look good here
2014-09-09 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's bad news for the precious metals
2014-09-09 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look around at other indicators
2014-09-09 17:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no help from the P/C ratios...we'll call them neutral
2014-09-09 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though, as mentioned earlier, ISEE came in at 80 today
2014-09-09 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that the market loves to slap around the put speculators right before OPEX
2014-09-09 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was told privately this past weekend that Investors Intelligence is at its lowest levels right now (13%) since February of 1987
2014-09-09 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2014-09-09 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mark Young's Wall Street Sentiment was at 40/60 this past week - bull/bear
2014-09-09 17:36:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: what do you make of that?
2014-09-09 17:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-09-09 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mark's poll is a list of "who's who" in technical analysis
2014-09-09 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some are on the TT board
2014-09-09 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but many are not
2014-09-09 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but sometimes
2014-09-09 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2014-09-09 17:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this poll is a leading indicator
2014-09-09 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not most times
2014-09-09 17:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but sometimes
2014-09-09 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem with polls though
2014-09-09 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you can say one thing
2014-09-09 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and trade another
2014-09-09 17:38:55 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right
2014-09-09 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you have to hope that what you're getting is honest and that person is trading off this same bias
2014-09-09 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the record
2014-09-09 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow ended up right on its 20 day EMA today
2014-09-09 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as did the SPX
2014-09-09 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ though remains well above its 20 day EMA
2014-09-09 17:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so taken together with the internals
2014-09-09 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good bet that we're going to see a bounce on Wednesday
2014-09-09 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the caveat of WWW
2014-09-09 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, lately in the last several months, seems to be taking place on Thursday
2014-09-09 17:41:49 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: can you take a quick look at the XLE?
2014-09-09 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2014-09-09 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the reminder
2014-09-09 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wanted to earlier this morning
2014-09-09 17:42:15 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: i was just looking and its STVO is oversold
2014-09-09 17:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: scary stuff
2014-09-09 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-09-09 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember our chat on this on Thursday
2014-09-09 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLE breadth MCO had its snapback to the zero line
2014-09-09 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but from there it was likely to move lower
2014-09-09 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that
2014-09-09 17:43:45 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: would we get a confirmation of a summation failure if the summation breaks last months low?
2014-09-09 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that roll over on the XLE breadth MCSUM is a classic topping formation
2014-09-09 17:44:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was so tempted to pull the trigger short on Friday-and pretty mad at myself that I didn't when Monday came...
2014-09-09 17:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-09-09 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the easy one to short
2014-09-09 17:44:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: BET!
2014-09-09 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the weakness in the secondaries on Thursday
2014-09-09 17:44:32 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: i have small put position but I wish it was a lot bigger lol
2014-09-09 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's OK
2014-09-09 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep hitting singles
2014-09-09 17:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2014-09-09 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Summation Failure trigger takes place as the MCSUM moves down and THROUGH its zero line
2014-09-09 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where "crash like" events can take place
2014-09-09 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here's how to monitor this
2014-09-09 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the post expansion continues to widen
2014-09-09 17:45:51 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: when this happens do you usually see large postings on the postings?
2014-09-09 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it moves down below the +100 level
2014-09-09 17:46:00 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: summation
2014-09-09 17:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the time to build the short position
2014-09-09 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-09 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this is
2014-09-09 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when MCSUM moves above the +500 level
2014-09-09 17:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then extends this to higher levels
2014-09-09 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shows that all of the willing and UNwillig buyers have moved into the market
2014-09-09 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the correction takes place from being highly "overbought"
2014-09-09 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who supported the trend to that point will then attempt to re-initiate this same sequence
2014-09-09 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't have enough backers to push the MCSUM back above the +250 level
2014-09-09 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a classic case of breadth (money flow) exhaustion
2014-09-09 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any or all capital thinking about moving into an index, or ETF, or stock, has all been used up
2014-09-09 17:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-09-09 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when all of the willing and unwilling have committed
2014-09-09 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the other side has an much easier time to "take control"
2014-09-09 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the willing panic
2014-09-09 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the unwilling as well
2014-09-09 17:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there's only so many that can fit through a revolving door at any given time
2014-09-09 17:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so a "crash like" event occurs
2014-09-09 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a vacuum
2014-09-09 17:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-09-09 17:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're real tip off here will be if the XLE breadth MCO moves below the second bottom above a bottom in early August
2014-09-09 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that's broken
2014-09-09 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "gravity" will do the rest of the work [smile]
2014-09-09 17:53:02 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks!
2014-09-09 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also as a reminder
2014-09-09 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to break below the previous lows of early August
2014-09-09 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that same reaction low in the XLE breadth MCO will need to break
2014-09-09 17:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "it all works together"
2014-09-09 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...the objective is still 92
2014-09-09 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any break below the first bottom above a bottom in the XLE breadth MCO
2014-09-09 17:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the new lower target will be...oh, about 89
2014-09-09 17:54:54 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: 200 ema at 92.20
2014-09-09 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's do one more thing...there you go
2014-09-09 17:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always order even when things look chaotic
2014-09-09 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec...let me check something
2014-09-09 17:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .382 retracement is at 93.68
2014-09-09 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .50 retracement is at 91.26
2014-09-09 17:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .618 retracement is at...
2014-09-09 17:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-09 17:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 88.83
2014-09-09 17:58:10 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: nice!
2014-09-09 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here you have two angles of technical analysis looking at, pretty much, the same numbers
2014-09-09 17:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this adds to the confidence of the trade
2014-09-09 17:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...one day at a time...and discipline
2014-09-09 17:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-09 17:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the way
2014-09-09 17:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all three of those retracement numbers were on a intraday basis
2014-09-09 17:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you look at the daily pattern
2014-09-09 18:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll also see prior price consolidation support as well
2014-09-09 18:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's another feather in your trading cap
2014-09-09 18:00:29 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks again
2014-09-09 18:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problemo
2014-09-09 18:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good trading
2014-09-09 18:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep breath in and out
2014-09-09 18:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no emotion
2014-09-09 18:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big outside range day on the XLK
2014-09-09 18:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a down close is expected there on Wednesday
2014-09-09 18:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-09-09 18:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-09-09 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-09-09 18:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are going on Thursday
2014-09-09 18:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-09-09 18:02:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night all!
2014-09-09 18:02:46 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you...good night all
2014-09-09 18:02:55 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: good night!

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