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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-09-09 16:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-09-09 16:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-09-09 16:00:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thank you.
2010-09-09 16:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like someone had a pretty good day today
2010-09-09 16:01:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "not bad"
2010-09-09 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-09 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-09-09 16:02:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: watching breadth today was very leading-nice
2010-09-09 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which way?
2010-09-09 16:03:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when it started to drop
2010-09-09 16:03:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth fell apart first
2010-09-09 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1892/1153
2010-09-09 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "not bad"
2010-09-09 16:03:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: started out over 4 to 1
2010-09-09 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ugh
2010-09-09 16:03:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: went even
2010-09-09 16:03:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: then the finish
2010-09-09 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we are "overbought" here
2010-09-09 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2010-09-09 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a day
2010-09-09 16:04:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure was
2010-09-09 16:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...it looks like everyone is here
2010-09-09 16:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder...there won't be a chat on Tuesday
2010-09-09 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will make it up next Friday...so Thursday and Friday next week
2010-09-09 16:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-09-09 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that you can't get together on Tuesday to discuss things
2010-09-09 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have access to do so
2010-09-09 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you do...I won't be able to post the transcripts until Thursday
2010-09-09 16:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that out of the way...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-09-09 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to struggle higher today
2010-09-09 16:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't quite give us bearish divergence
2010-09-09 16:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did fulfill the near term expectation of having the CO NYSE breadth MCO 5% component bounce off its zero lines in the last couple of days
2010-09-09 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% only bounced in "free flight"
2010-09-09 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts in anticipation of next week
2010-09-09 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further upside progress in the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM from here will find further resistance at the little hesitation point seen just below the zero line from last month
2010-09-09 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also satisfy any further attempt to snapback to the zero line itself
2010-09-09 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being said
2010-09-09 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are currently at a reading of -233
2010-09-09 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the -250 level is still in play as a possible resistance point
2010-09-09 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further upward progress on Friday, however, would then open the door to a zero line test early next week
2010-09-09 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO has also struggled higher over the last couple of days as well
2010-09-09 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has allowed the NYSE breadth MCSUM to move back up to the +459 level...close enough for a snapback to the +500 level in which we discussed on Tuesday as one possible target for this week
2010-09-09 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the underlying components of this MCO remain buoyant in all of this
2010-09-09 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not a good idea to be looking for a short here unless we get some technical breakdown of some kind on Friday
2010-09-09 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this would be in preparation for next week for any follow through
2010-09-09 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow becomes an important day for both the bulls and the bears for (likely) the rest of the month
2010-09-09 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NYSE breadth MCSUM +500 level is breached...we play the better odds of continued rally
2010-09-09 16:17:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: +500 to +550 is the gap resistance
2010-09-09 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (although it might be sluggish in character because of the lack of up volume conviction)
2010-09-09 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to note - thanks Doc
2010-09-09 16:18:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: composite hasn't entered the gap R while the common is 2/3 of the way through it
2010-09-09 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then what would be nice to see
2010-09-09 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be a rally primarily in the interest rate sensitive issues on Friday while the commons lag
2010-09-09 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a defensive play
2010-09-09 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allow both MCSUM's to remain in sync
2010-09-09 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the advantages for the shorts right now
2010-09-09 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that until we see a gap lower on the MCSUM
2010-09-09 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no reason to short
2010-09-09 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the tide would overwhelm such a prospect
2010-09-09 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we play the odds until the odds reverse
2010-09-09 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said
2010-09-09 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a general hard sell off in the PM stocks today
2010-09-09 16:20:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: Your comments above don't make sense to me
2010-09-09 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to lead to some sort follow through action with equities within a day or so
2010-09-09 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't be surprising since I'm a bit scattered
2010-09-09 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one?
2010-09-09 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and I will slow down...)
2010-09-09 16:21:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: just read from "one of the advantages for the shorts...
2010-09-09 16:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-09-09 16:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the shorts
2010-09-09 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are itching to short
2010-09-09 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no reason to until you see the MCSUM reverse
2010-09-09 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to stay in cash and be patient
2010-09-09 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's continue to rise, this shows us that money is moving in
2010-09-09 16:22:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, so not an advantage for the shorts, so to speak
2010-09-09 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something like this...
2010-09-09 16:22:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: advantage for the bulls
2010-09-09 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it is an advantage for the shorts in that you don't have to throw you money at the market in anticipation that prices are going to move lower near term
2010-09-09 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always an advantage
2010-09-09 16:23:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: is it Doc- What is your target here?
2010-09-09 16:24:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: target? I was just trying to understand the advantage for the shorts--now I understand that the advantage is not to be short yet
2010-09-09 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I put it this format because I KNOW there are certain readers here who are looking for an opportunity to short
2010-09-09 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I probably could had framed it differently
2010-09-09 16:24:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm with you now.
2010-09-09 16:24:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I would be uncomfortable long-unless I had a target I was heading to
2010-09-09 16:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line here
2010-09-09 16:25:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: No downside targets
2010-09-09 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we deal with probability and outcome
2010-09-09 16:25:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: Upside met for the 2.5wk cycle and way exceeded
2010-09-09 16:25:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not true-downside has been provided
2010-09-09 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...you could continue to find an entry point
2010-09-09 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the flow of money agrees with your assessment
2010-09-09 16:25:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: Upside target 1140 in play later this month, all from Hurst point of view
2010-09-09 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to stand aside than to have the odds working against you
2010-09-09 16:25:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks Doc, that's what I need to see
2010-09-09 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as 1140 as concerned
2010-09-09 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless money flow starts to pick up steam here
2010-09-09 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not going to make it
2010-09-09 16:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe back up to 1125
2010-09-09 16:27:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: There's been a lot of that lately, lol
2010-09-09 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even that is dicey right now
2010-09-09 16:27:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: My downside was undershot too.
2010-09-09 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the charts are telling us here is simple
2010-09-09 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market wants to go higher
2010-09-09 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance for money is higher
2010-09-09 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get enough volume to push us higher...we're going to hesitate and chop
2010-09-09 16:28:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: That will come next week
2010-09-09 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is getting squeezed here
2010-09-09 16:28:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: expiration week
2010-09-09 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...that would be fine
2010-09-09 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah...OK...
2010-09-09 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quadruple OPEX
2010-09-09 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...that's only Thursday and Friday...and more of churn
2010-09-09 16:29:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: we'll get the volume next week and Hurst wise it might be down and the up
2010-09-09 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...when I talk about volume
2010-09-09 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not talking daily numbers
2010-09-09 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm talking plurality
2010-09-09 16:29:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: and then up
2010-09-09 16:29:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay
2010-09-09 16:30:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: BTW
2010-09-09 16:30:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: before we leave the NY data
2010-09-09 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/nyud090910.png
2010-09-09 16:30:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: important to point out that NYAD made a new high today
2010-09-09 16:31:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: largest mutual fund withdrawel level so far this year last week. while we rallied-the big move didn't seem to attract buyers
2010-09-09 16:31:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: Spooky, Hurst 2.5wk low due next Tues-Wed, throttle up after that, unless...
2010-09-09 16:33:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Thanks Doc, I'm quite curious where the market will be sitting by next Wedns.
2010-09-09 16:37:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/388hx82
2010-09-09 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get the NYUD in a better and proper configuration
2010-09-09 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the market has to work with is air
2010-09-09 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: period
2010-09-09 16:38:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looking at the chart you posted Doc, it looks like the SPX rolls over pretty quickly after that makes a new high?
2010-09-09 16:40:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Spooky, I have nothing to suggest down from here other than what Fib has been discussing in the last chat
2010-09-09 16:40:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: But, it did in EVERY instance on your chart-just saying
2010-09-09 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's move on
2010-09-09 16:40:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: Heck, we have only upward potential Hurst wise, till the 80wk cycle rolls over and NO ONE can predict when that will be
2010-09-09 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40 weeks?
2010-09-09 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (being cheeky)
2010-09-09 16:41:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: Likely less
2010-09-09 16:41:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: Should be left translated
2010-09-09 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2010-09-09 16:41:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: It is the 6th of 6 in 9 year cycle
2010-09-09 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components
2010-09-09 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we did indeed get our bounce off the zero line on the 10% component
2010-09-09 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and repelled from the zero line on the 5%
2010-09-09 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...we haven't moved to new highs yet on the 10%, and have once again snapped back to the zero line with the 5%
2010-09-09 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls need follow through here fairly quickly, or a hard reversal will occur
2010-09-09 16:43:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: Any points on the NYAD making new highs here or is this a non-event for you here?
2010-09-09 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the NYUD gets its act together, it's just a milestone for now
2010-09-09 16:44:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: Thanks
2010-09-09 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity is NOT the problem
2010-09-09 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how its being USED is the problem
2010-09-09 16:44:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: While on the NASDAQ,
2010-09-09 16:44:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: NAUD climbed above its 200 ema
2010-09-09 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite
2010-09-09 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doc...I just don't like what I'm seeing here
2010-09-09 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hope I'm wrong
2010-09-09 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the excuses of August and the holiday is behind us now
2010-09-09 16:46:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: I understand and believe me I appreciate you sounding the alarm, but
2010-09-09 16:46:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: I would like to fully understand why
2010-09-09 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is very indecisive here
2010-09-09 16:46:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: so that this can be a learning experience for the future
2010-09-09 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2010-09-09 16:47:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: for all of us
2010-09-09 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take the issue of the breadth thrust we talked about on Tuesday
2010-09-09 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything "technical" is an observation
2010-09-09 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these observations are (or tend to be) repetitive in their nature
2010-09-09 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what has happened in the past
2010-09-09 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those resolutions have a character in which we look for in order to forecast what might happen again
2010-09-09 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a breadth thrust
2010-09-09 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market doesn't show any kind of hesitation to its structure
2010-09-09 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality also confirms what the thrust implies
2010-09-09 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is like getting a Ferrari filled with fuel, but it doesn't go anywhere near what it should be able to do on the highway
2010-09-09 16:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sputters
2010-09-09 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the timing is off
2010-09-09 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you might reach an objective
2010-09-09 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but its going to be an effort to do so
2010-09-09 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you will tend to lose combustion right in the middle of putting your foot down on the accelerator pedal
2010-09-09 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like today
2010-09-09 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth and volume MUST work together to give the desired results
2010-09-09 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can not move a market without the other
2010-09-09 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if this changes...fantastic
2010-09-09 16:52:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: For volume to confirm
2010-09-09 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until it does
2010-09-09 16:52:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: are you looking at NYUD vs its EMAs
2010-09-09 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-09-09 16:52:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: or at the volume MCO or MCSUM?
2010-09-09 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried about a trend here
2010-09-09 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either short term or intermediate term
2010-09-09 16:52:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cash is somewhat refuting futures, as well-not a good sign
2010-09-09 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get a proper configuration...we're going to spin our collective wheels
2010-09-09 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a look at the NASDAQ price pattern from the June highs to the July lows
2010-09-09 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you extend a line to the right
2010-09-09 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see our triangle
2010-09-09 16:54:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: So the July rally started with NYUD deep in the hole, and it was a tradable rally till it failed
2010-09-09 16:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the July low was the bottom of a triangle
2010-09-09 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...usually...does not get tested as the price pattern will tend to move with a sideways motion
2010-09-09 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher bottoms
2010-09-09 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower tops
2010-09-09 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pattern is harder to see with the NYA
2010-09-09 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the indecisive nature of the pattern itself is recognizable
2010-09-09 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a simple trading range
2010-09-09 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this range will NOT move either above or below its limitations until volume plurality overwhelms the other side
2010-09-09 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-09-09 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth suggests that eventually the breakout will be to the upside
2010-09-09 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get volume, as measured by the UD to co-operate with this notion
2010-09-09 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens is a larger consolidation with - in this case with the AD moving higher - a bullish bias...a bottom above a bottom
2010-09-09 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I hate indecision patterns)
2010-09-09 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...I don't really know if I answered your question or not
2010-09-09 16:58:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: For fun, there is a down trendline from the April highs touching the June highs that the July rally broke up above and the August swoon came back to test from the top and now we are moving up
2010-09-09 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm not trying to be vague either
2010-09-09 16:58:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: unfortunately, the top in 2007 triangle looks much the same
2010-09-09 16:59:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: and today tested the DTL using the Aug tops
2010-09-09 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would consistent to the NYAD moving higher (breaking the downtrend) but not being able to add to the breakout (because of the lack of volume)
2010-09-09 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...I may be very wrong here
2010-09-09 17:00:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: it has nothing to do with right or wrong
2010-09-09 17:00:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: purely academic here
2010-09-09 17:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't see anything telling me that we're going to be able to promote an advancing price structure at this current time
2010-09-09 17:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can change tomorrow
2010-09-09 17:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm asking for is for up volume to help the structure along
2010-09-09 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm asking for is constructive evidence that a uptrend can actually occur
2010-09-09 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see that as yet
2010-09-09 17:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I see...and feel...is a market struggling to make a move
2010-09-09 17:01:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well maybe that's the difference between the bottom and the POR
2010-09-09 17:02:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Hard to get volume plurality early on when the sentiment was way way bearish
2010-09-09 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't agree with that
2010-09-09 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the great rally's of the last several decades all took place with massive short covering as their start
2010-09-09 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see follow through
2010-09-09 17:02:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we may well be in a running triangle Fib-I considered same today-but, it can easily be read as we just hit "E", as well
2010-09-09 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...OK...but if this is a true breadth thrust
2010-09-09 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would have been able to hold today's breadth plurality numbers
2010-09-09 17:03:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: it was a positive day
2010-09-09 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: E up...which would mean a final sell off into a low
2010-09-09 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-09-09 17:03:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-09 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like Lew said in the beginning
2010-09-09 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was 4:1 to the good...pulled even...and then closed with 700 net advancers
2010-09-09 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole thing smacks of a triangle
2010-09-09 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the flash crash
2010-09-09 17:04:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm fine with a sell off for a couple of days to next Tues-Wed and it could be a hard sell off, but I don't see lower lows in price
2010-09-09 17:04:58 [Message] tracca -> Chat: E?
2010-09-09 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly probable that this kind of pattern would occur as traders take their time to determine what we might see in the future
2010-09-09 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...an E
2010-09-09 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott Triangles are A-B-C-D-E affairs
2010-09-09 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: A would be the June highs
2010-09-09 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B would be the July lows
2010-09-09 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: C would be the August highs
2010-09-09 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: D would be the lows at the end of August
2010-09-09 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in E
2010-09-09 17:06:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes,it's pretty clean and clear, to me
2010-09-09 17:06:30 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you
2010-09-09 17:06:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: Didn't you say in the June "fake" breadth thrust that you usually look for at least 10 days of positive NYMO as a criteria roughly? So far we have 5 days.
2010-09-09 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pattern would be fully consistent to the breadth/volume discussion
2010-09-09 17:07:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: You were absolutely right on in predicting a rally failure
2010-09-09 17:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be confused between a breadth thrust and a buy spike?
2010-09-09 17:07:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: could be
2010-09-09 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I stand by this being a failure waiting to happen here as well
2010-09-09 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that bad feeling I was getting in August?
2010-09-09 17:07:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto, fwiw
2010-09-09 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting it again
2010-09-09 17:08:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay I hear you
2010-09-09 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know me well enough
2010-09-09 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I give you as much unbiased analysis as I can
2010-09-09 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said last week...I was rooting for Lew to be right for a decline
2010-09-09 17:08:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, much appreciated
2010-09-09 17:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'll root for you as well
2010-09-09 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market is saying otherwise
2010-09-09 17:09:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Lew learned his lesson lol
2010-09-09 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just try to let the information given guide me...and hopefully it agrees with your analysis
2010-09-09 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't
2010-09-09 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can be wrong as the next guy
2010-09-09 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I might not be seeing something you might be
2010-09-09 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's why we have the chat
2010-09-09 17:10:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: Truth be told, I'm mostly neutral now looking/hoping for down to buy into
2010-09-09 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm no better than anyone here
2010-09-09 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can be wrong
2010-09-09 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just wait for Vegas...OK?
2010-09-09 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-09 17:10:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: Have to be careful what I wish for, huh?
2010-09-09 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...the idea here is to have a discussion
2010-09-09 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to provide specific reasons why the market can or can not do this or that
2010-09-09 17:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm never wishy washy
2010-09-09 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...
2010-09-09 17:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is
2010-09-09 17:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is one of those times in which it is
2010-09-09 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's indecisive
2010-09-09 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has been since May
2010-09-09 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once clarity is known...we're going to make day to day calls that much more ease
2010-09-09 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until then...there's going to be differing opinions
2010-09-09 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "indecision"
2010-09-09 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that we can take from all of this though
2010-09-09 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that once this indecision is finished
2010-09-09 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the NYAD line
2010-09-09 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to have a big rally here
2010-09-09 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I mean big
2010-09-09 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2010-09-09 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the NYUD is compressing
2010-09-09 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to do so
2010-09-09 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the spring is sprung
2010-09-09 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move is going to be..."breadth taking"
2010-09-09 17:13:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oddly, I'm with Don there-wave 3 up
2010-09-09 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be
2010-09-09 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've been talking about this in the chat since 2004 and before that
2010-09-09 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2003 war lows were significant in this idea
2010-09-09 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you remember
2010-09-09 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very existence of the US was being called into question
2010-09-09 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if Iraq used their warfare on our troops and we lost?
2010-09-09 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a lot of angst at that time (in which many forget about)
2010-09-09 17:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so...it was as high as it was in the early 1930's
2010-09-09 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again...
2010-09-09 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the political climate is being....
2010-09-09 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm
2010-09-09 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying to think of a proper word here
2010-09-09 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the political climate is giving the birth to a new party
2010-09-09 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would consistent to the idea of whether the US...in its current content...will continue or not?
2010-09-09 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 2's are famous for these kinds of emotions
2010-09-09 17:17:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but I only saw it now, I consider the Secular bear dead last March-Dons seen it plenty-but I think this time-he gets it-everything finally looks lined up
2010-09-09 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...a clock is right twice a day
2010-09-09 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I respect everyone when it comes to their specialties
2010-09-09 17:17:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: he'll be unbelievable lol
2010-09-09 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've been saying that about Don since 1987
2010-09-09 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-09-09 17:18:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: One more question on volume plurality and NYUD, since it is a gradient from bad to good, at what point would you feel more comfortable that volume is confirming breadth? NYUD above 200ema, or do you need the 5 and 10% trends to be dragged all the way above the 1% trend as well into a full bullish config?
2010-09-09 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want three things to happen...and in this order
2010-09-09 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want a bottom above a bottom
2010-09-09 17:18:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: check
2010-09-09 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want the line itself to move above the 200 day EMA
2010-09-09 17:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then I want a bullish configuration
2010-09-09 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get that to happen
2010-09-09 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it does
2010-09-09 17:19:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: We have the bottom above bottom
2010-09-09 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small one, yes
2010-09-09 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want one that screams at you if you look at the data on a monthly basis
2010-09-09 17:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not of this taking a microscope to the pattern
2010-09-09 17:20:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: I was referring to July vs Aug bottoms
2010-09-09 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just doesn't happen that way
2010-09-09 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a start
2010-09-09 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm good with it
2010-09-09 17:20:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: for what I'm looking for upmove wise, I want more texture, and complexity
2010-09-09 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bullish configuration would be easy and quick to do as well
2010-09-09 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes....texture...complexity
2010-09-09 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this is foundational work
2010-09-09 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to "climb a wall"
2010-09-09 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like in rock climbing
2010-09-09 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need to be able to have a foot hold for both feet
2010-09-09 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one leg won't do the job
2010-09-09 17:21:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, for a huge building-you need a great foundation
2010-09-09 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2010-09-09 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just don't have that
2010-09-09 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe another month or so
2010-09-09 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not quite yet
2010-09-09 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a little more time
2010-09-09 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not at all be surprised if we don't see this happen until sometime after the elections
2010-09-09 17:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-09-09 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the triangle pattern in the NASDAQ says it will be sooner than that
2010-09-09 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the triangle pattern might also be something cyclical as well
2010-09-09 17:23:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: As I mentioned last chat, if we do get a sudden swoon, it could come in the way of a default of a major bank or country in Europe or the heightened threat of one. In that regard, I have been watching today a SOB pattern for the EUR on the HOURLY chart that is very close to being triggered. Just FYI
2010-09-09 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the once a larger time cycle does bottom...it will cause prices to move up and away from this consolidation instead of moving down and into the nesting
2010-09-09 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting that you mention that doc
2010-09-09 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2010-09-09 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with E waves in Elliott
2010-09-09 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thrust out of the triangle is almost always news related
2010-09-09 17:24:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: A Clintonesque midterm like political situation looks great for the market, to me
2010-09-09 17:24:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: It almost trigger at the close of the hour as we've been chatting
2010-09-09 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...a 1994 repeat is very possible
2010-09-09 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know what happened after that
2010-09-09 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have Tom McClellan's Presidential Cycle
2010-09-09 17:25:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: And Doc, the dollar looks like a C up of a 2 here-the A up cost the market 90 SPX points-day for day
2010-09-09 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which shows that the 3rd year of a Presidential term is always the strongest for the stock market
2010-09-09 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else you wish to touch upon here...or should I go on?
2010-09-09 17:26:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a 3 up in the market goes quite well with a 3 down in the dollar-it all fits
2010-09-09 17:26:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good exporting, etc.
2010-09-09 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please...please...please be careful with this Dollar market comparisons
2010-09-09 17:27:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/ Check out the hourly Eur cross
2010-09-09 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or you might wind up like the gold traders
2010-09-09 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm moving on
2010-09-09 17:27:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes lets
2010-09-09 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is now back to its zero line
2010-09-09 17:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with pattern resistance just below the +250 level
2010-09-09 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NDX breadth MCO can move to higher highs near term
2010-09-09 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this would allow the MCSUM to attain this target
2010-09-09 17:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2010-09-09 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we find that price pattern reversed at resistance in the NDX at the declining tops line today
2010-09-09 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this re-enforce the significance of such a line
2010-09-09 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will only be able to break above this line of resistance if the NDX breadth MCO can move to higher highs
2010-09-09 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then push the MCSUM above the zero line
2010-09-09 17:30:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: 1900 is also a very significant horizontal line
2010-09-09 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great example of how "everything needs to work together" to accomplish a goal
2010-09-09 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this kind of breadth push
2010-09-09 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that we're not going to move to much higher here
2010-09-09 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: horizontal resistance on the SPX price pattern remains at 1125
2010-09-09 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lower boundary still at 1050
2010-09-09 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least one things for sure
2010-09-09 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is very orderly here if we stand back a little for a wider view
2010-09-09 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has been our mantra for several weeks now
2010-09-09 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the Three Bears
2010-09-09 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not really ready to rally
2010-09-09 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not really ready to decline
2010-09-09 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is not trend except sideways (just right)
2010-09-09 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if things change
2010-09-09 17:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great
2010-09-09 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whichever way...great
2010-09-09 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-09-09 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing you will start to notice
2010-09-09 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you haven't already
2010-09-09 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that everyone is quick to jump ship
2010-09-09 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bears to bulls
2010-09-09 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bulls to bears
2010-09-09 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and decorum becomes rough
2010-09-09 17:34:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, they sure are
2010-09-09 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as traders we want clarity
2010-09-09 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what happens
2010-09-09 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially on message boards
2010-09-09 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that everyone wants to be the first one to be right
2010-09-09 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they're not
2010-09-09 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the battles begin
2010-09-09 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...this is just something to look for sentiment wise
2010-09-09 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it gives us clarity as to what we should be looking for(or not)
2010-09-09 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO did move to higher highs today
2010-09-09 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern closed above its mid August hesitation point
2010-09-09 17:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a good thing if you're a bull
2010-09-09 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would be better if you see something like this happen as broadly as possible
2010-09-09 17:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...it's only the top 100 stocks
2010-09-09 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have chatted about many times in the past
2010-09-09 17:38:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: The downtrend line for the McSum intersects at the zero line
2010-09-09 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not always a good thing if the "higher ups" are seeing all the attention
2010-09-09 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2010-09-09 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beauty there, of course
2010-09-09 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the market MUST make a major move to violate these same lines of support and resistance
2010-09-09 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market leaves no doubt as to its intentions
2010-09-09 17:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-09-09 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls could be right tomorrow
2010-09-09 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2010-09-09 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears could once again say..."I told you so!"
2010-09-09 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: indecision
2010-09-09 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not worth playing the trade
2010-09-09 17:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to wait for confirmation
2010-09-09 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2010-09-09 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get confirmation
2010-09-09 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are so wound up here
2010-09-09 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's going to take some time for us to unwind
2010-09-09 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there's fake outs
2010-09-09 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we won't get into that
2010-09-09 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO did NOT move above its previous highs today
2010-09-09 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's not a good thing
2010-09-09 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the OEX did
2010-09-09 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and BTW
2010-09-09 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can throw out the idea of a MCSUM fishhook here
2010-09-09 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-09-09 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't want to see what might happen with several MCSUM's now snapping back to their zero lines and failing to build on this
2010-09-09 17:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't like it...
2010-09-09 17:42:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: The components made higher highs
2010-09-09 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're missing character here
2010-09-09 17:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2010-09-09 17:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they did
2010-09-09 17:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should respect that for what it may imply
2010-09-09 17:43:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: that the mco is likely to follow
2010-09-09 17:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2010-09-09 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to struggle higher
2010-09-09 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Doc...I just don't like the way the market is struggling here
2010-09-09 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have the MID leading
2010-09-09 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the SML
2010-09-09 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which gave a small point change today as well
2010-09-09 17:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the secondaries and MID and SML stocks are compressed here
2010-09-09 17:45:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: Interestingly, the mid is leading
2010-09-09 17:45:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "struggle" is a good phrase, and key to me here-it shouldn't be struggling
2010-09-09 17:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe they'll follow the brass?
2010-09-09 17:45:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: It is one of the strongest indexes this year
2010-09-09 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID is leading what?
2010-09-09 17:45:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: It is up for the year
2010-09-09 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2010-09-09 17:45:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: Most are down
2010-09-09 17:45:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: It didn't fall as much
2010-09-09 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean much if there's nothing really supporting the price structure in the here and now
2010-09-09 17:46:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: so it is waiting for the rest of the laggards to catch up
2010-09-09 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the year...that's 9 months ago
2010-09-09 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...like I said to Lew...good luck
2010-09-09 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just don't see anything really worthy of a breakout here
2010-09-09 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news is
2010-09-09 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting closer - day by day - to some sort of resolution
2010-09-09 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just wouldn't lead off here
2010-09-09 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rather miss out on a 500 point Dow day and then climb on board than being on the wrong end of such a day
2010-09-09 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much indecision right now
2010-09-09 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then there's the axiom
2010-09-09 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "never short a dull market"
2010-09-09 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quickly looking at the McClellan Volume charts
2010-09-09 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Oh...before I do
2010-09-09 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the total market breadth MCO
2010-09-09 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...there's enough evidence here that we "might" see a dramatic move in major market averages in the next two trading days
2010-09-09 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth says higher
2010-09-09 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume oscillators say down or "I don't know"
2010-09-09 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many questions
2010-09-09 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I had to make a good guess
2010-09-09 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would base the next move on the direction of the PM stocks
2010-09-09 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today..they were down hard
2010-09-09 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that gold is consolidating if not pulling back
2010-09-09 17:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2010-09-09 17:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then stocks are likely to do so as well
2010-09-09 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's been the character for a couple of months now
2010-09-09 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2010-09-09 17:52:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: equity PC and ISEE amped up here-I doubt they get paid Big contract players very short, as well
2010-09-09 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2010-09-09 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the structure there is looking good
2010-09-09 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a nice series of bottoms above bottoms in place
2010-09-09 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...there's one thing that's consistent here
2010-09-09 17:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ALL of the volume MCSUM's are below their zero lines right now
2010-09-09 17:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time
2010-09-09 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are all near their zero lines
2010-09-09 17:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we are setting up for something very big
2010-09-09 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice to see the uniformity there
2010-09-09 17:54:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-09-09 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing I will stress here is this
2010-09-09 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have more problems right now than the bulls do
2010-09-09 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-09-09 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more likely that we're going to see higher highs than lower lows once this indecision is complete
2010-09-09 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that I have no problems with
2010-09-09 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the short term that's a problem...debatable
2010-09-09 17:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for those who do play the short side here on any breakdown
2010-09-09 17:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to be very nimble here
2010-09-09 17:56:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: large players 3 to 1 short here, has note boded well in history
2010-09-09 17:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't see much downside here...maybe the July lows..but that's about it
2010-09-09 17:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're in an indecision pattern too
2010-09-09 17:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large and small players can be wrong
2010-09-09 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large players just have more zeros to their trades
2010-09-09 17:57:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, just value taking the odds, myself
2010-09-09 17:57:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: Don't you think that we'd have trouble getting below the ISM gap up? I think that was the initiation move and caught a lot of bears trapped?
2010-09-09 17:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are highly "overbought"
2010-09-09 17:57:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they have a history of being right at those levels
2010-09-09 17:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in triangles...reversal gaps always appear because of the quickness to be right
2010-09-09 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a conditioning thing
2010-09-09 17:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you get hurt...and you don't want to get hurt again
2010-09-09 17:58:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very true
2010-09-09 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you cinch up your stops
2010-09-09 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN At .75
2010-09-09 17:59:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: Interestingly on the STVO's, this level of overbought has typically led to one big down day followed by higher highs the past year, except the June false rally
2010-09-09 17:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2010-09-09 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting really close here to being "overbought"
2010-09-09 18:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind in any comparisons here that we are in a large indecision pattern
2010-09-09 18:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there are going to be fake outs
2010-09-09 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it MUST all work together
2010-09-09 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are not in sync here between breadth and volume
2010-09-09 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would like to be
2010-09-09 18:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not
2010-09-09 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .77
2010-09-09 18:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .80
2010-09-09 18:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at .77 yesterday
2010-09-09 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2010-09-09 18:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at what could be the end of an Elliott E wave as well
2010-09-09 18:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very consistent
2010-09-09 18:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .81
2010-09-09 18:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2010-09-09 18:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2010-09-09 18:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't want to be long here
2010-09-09 18:02:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2010-09-09 18:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a good buy point for longer term traders
2010-09-09 18:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's likely to be a better time to buy (accumulate)
2010-09-09 18:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hardest thing to do in this kind of situation
2010-09-09 18:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to sit back and see the market inch up or down
2010-09-09 18:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your emotion gets the best of you and makes you commit
2010-09-09 18:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that you have to catch it early or you'll be left behind
2010-09-09 18:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a suckers bet
2010-09-09 18:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want texture
2010-09-09 18:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want character
2010-09-09 18:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not getting that right now
2010-09-09 18:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market isn't saying much of anything to change my mind
2010-09-09 18:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-09-09 18:05:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great work, as usual, thanks so much!
2010-09-09 18:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last thing here
2010-09-09 18:05:43 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: yes, thanks again, Fib!
2010-09-09 18:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market does sell off next week
2010-09-09 18:05:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: John "Silent One" has some cyclical Hurst stuff that suggests downward action for the metal, esp silver
2010-09-09 18:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're playing it short
2010-09-09 18:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make it a day trade
2010-09-09 18:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're looking for a entry point
2010-09-09 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait a day or so for confirmation
2010-09-09 18:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch volume
2010-09-09 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the total daily
2010-09-09 18:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but UD
2010-09-09 18:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is the key now
2010-09-09 18:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: uummm...the trend for gold is higher
2010-09-09 18:07:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: Right, I guess he's calling for a top
2010-09-09 18:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad10/breadthpm090310.gif
2010-09-09 18:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can gold top with the printing presses on high speed?
2010-09-09 18:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can gold top if interest rates are at zero?
2010-09-09 18:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can gold top if we're going to get more stimulus?
2010-09-09 18:08:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: He's a good Hurst/Gann technician. I think he is looking for an Oct bottom
2010-09-09 18:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...a short term top
2010-09-09 18:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem
2010-09-09 18:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at all time highs again
2010-09-09 18:08:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: Oh definitely
2010-09-09 18:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the longer term trend is higher
2010-09-09 18:08:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: Long term he's bullish
2010-09-09 18:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more chart...and I have to go
2010-09-09 18:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..then I won't post the chart
2010-09-09 18:09:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: He shorted RGLD yesterday
2010-09-09 18:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you look at monthly gold since 2000...that tells the story quite adequately
2010-09-09 18:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great call
2010-09-09 18:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-09-09 18:09:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when that pattern breaks out North, it will catch a LOT of short players-nothing better than a failed pattern
2010-09-09 18:09:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: No, thanks again.
2010-09-09 18:10:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Nice discussions
2010-09-09 18:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...that's the idea
2010-09-09 18:10:27 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you
2010-09-09 18:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully I've left you all with something to work with until next Thursday
2010-09-09 18:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great week
2010-09-09 18:10:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: vacation market, dead ahead lol
2010-09-09 18:10:49 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: You too
2010-09-09 18:10:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: You know the sparks will fly with you in Vegas
2010-09-09 18:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'll see you all next week
2010-09-09 18:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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