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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-09-06 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-09-06 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-09-06 16:00:19 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: doing well, and you?
2012-09-06 16:00:24 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: heck of a day today.
2012-09-06 16:00:26 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: duh
2012-09-06 16:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bad
2012-09-06 16:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were getting really coiled up there yesterday
2012-09-06 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see all the small point changes on the MCO's - both breadth and volume??
2012-09-06 16:02:47 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yep
2012-09-06 16:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it appears that our patience has paid off
2012-09-06 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the timing was pretty much as expected as well
2012-09-06 16:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the end of the week...and the day before the jobs numbers which seems to be a fairly consistent occurrence over the last several months
2012-09-06 16:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-09-06 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of you who have been following my posts/tweets over the last couple of days...we all know what I was looking at for those calls?
2012-09-06 16:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know Steve knows
2012-09-06 16:05:00 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol
2012-09-06 16:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...breadth/money flow is a very powerful tool when handled corrected and without distractions
2012-09-06 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that...
2012-09-06 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and let's see if the 4:1 plurality was enough to thrust us on another leg of this advance
2012-09-06 16:07:03 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yeah i meant to ask - what do you watch during the day to measure the money flow?
2012-09-06 16:07:08 [Message] manuj -> Chat: TICK or something else?
2012-09-06 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...the cumulative TICK
2012-09-06 16:07:19 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2012-09-06 16:07:28 [Message] manuj -> Chat: anything else?
2012-09-06 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I use SC
2012-09-06 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though is that intraday data is live only on the 15, 5, 3, 2,  and 1 minute time frames
2012-09-06 16:08:07 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok but is TICK the only tool you use for intraday or something else as well?
2012-09-06 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other time frames go out of whack during the day
2012-09-06 16:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-09-06 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just the TICK
2012-09-06 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2012-09-06 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two EMA's
2012-09-06 16:08:40 [Message] manuj -> Chat: got it
2012-09-06 16:08:42 [Message] manuj -> Chat: thx
2012-09-06 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you guess which ones?
2012-09-06 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-09-06 16:09:03 [Message] manuj -> Chat: 19, 39 :-)
2012-09-06 16:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 200 EMA
2012-09-06 16:09:14 [Message] manuj -> Chat: ok
2012-09-06 16:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correctamundo
2012-09-06 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: treat it like we do with the daily NYAD or any breadth or volume chart
2012-09-06 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really simple...but powerful
2012-09-06 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you bring up the 15 minute intraday chart of the cumulative TICK with these same EMA's
2012-09-06 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see how money had been consistently moving in over the last several days
2012-09-06 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-09-06 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moves in advance of price
2012-09-06 16:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so though I took quite a beating by some over the last couple of weeks
2012-09-06 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were fighting the market...
2012-09-06 16:10:57 [Message] manuj -> Chat: yeah i watch those during the day as well
2012-09-06 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not me
2012-09-06 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to intraday stuff is that it has to compliment the daily
2012-09-06 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily NYAD line, for example, continues to remain in a bullish configuration
2012-09-06 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while this continues
2012-09-06 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any pullbacks in the TICK during the day is only temporary
2012-09-06 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will react at the EMA's just like the NYAD does with the same EMA's
2012-09-06 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why this methodology "works"
2012-09-06 16:12:33 [Message] manuj -> Chat: for sure
2012-09-06 16:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it does so in all time frames
2012-09-06 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no excuses
2012-09-06 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only problem that does come up
2012-09-06 16:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is what happens overnight can give us an opposite move at the open that isn't consistent to the prior day
2012-09-06 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then if you look at the 15, 30 or the hourly data
2012-09-06 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are then able to determine the bigger context
2012-09-06 16:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intraday stuff is great for scalpers
2012-09-06 16:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: day traders
2012-09-06 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who want to "hit and run"
2012-09-06 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily takes precedence over all of the small time frames
2012-09-06 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where the chats come into play
2012-09-06 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it keeps us focused as to what is truly important
2012-09-06 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while others "fundamentalize" themselves with bad information
2012-09-06 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..DP time...here we go
2012-09-06 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly below the zero line yesterday
2012-09-06 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO powered higher today
2012-09-06 16:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving 5 bottoms above bottoms behind
2012-09-06 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next step now to where we can call ourselves in the clear
2012-09-06 16:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we want to see the previous MCO highs taken out in short order
2012-09-06 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2012-09-06 16:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would like to see the NYSE composite MCO now back to leading the CO MCO higher
2012-09-06 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look at that in a moment
2012-09-06 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering back to Tuesday and when we talked about this MCO's components
2012-09-06 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we noted that both the 10% and 5% Trends had already given us crossover buy signals
2012-09-06 16:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they were showing more strength than the MCO itself
2012-09-06 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was one of whispers, along with the bottom above a bottom, that suggested that not only was a big move coming soon
2012-09-06 16:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds were good that it was going to be a bullish resolution
2012-09-06 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the other important piece of information being
2012-09-06 16:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the individual postings of the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM were congested suggesting that the sellers had been losing any advantage that they might of had last Thursday
2012-09-06 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we got small point zero line readings across a wide area yesterday
2012-09-06 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NO ONE here should be at all surprised at today's results
2012-09-06 16:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite
2012-09-06 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that NYSE breadth MCO did NOT show a higher number than the CO
2012-09-06 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the bulls show some good follow through by Monday
2012-09-06 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's robust move to the upside will likely be partially retraced early next week
2012-09-06 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that the NYSE breadth MCSUM remains within the confines of its horizontal range
2012-09-06 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until we break above the upper portion of this range
2012-09-06 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are still vulnerable to retracement
2012-09-06 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2012-09-06 16:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good start
2012-09-06 16:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but did we go too far, too fast?
2012-09-06 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or did it take the majority by surprise and they still haven't got over the shell shock of this same explosive move?
2012-09-06 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the other charts say
2012-09-06 16:24:21 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: intraday tick at eod kinda said it all to me.
2012-09-06 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, yes
2012-09-06 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the TICKQ as well
2012-09-06 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, you can use both
2012-09-06 16:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and should
2012-09-06 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me...I just use the TICK
2012-09-06 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ
2012-09-06 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we also powered higher today in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-09-06 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do remain below mid August highs
2012-09-06 16:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-09-06 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is very important
2012-09-06 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-09-06 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we break above our long standing MCSUM Gap Resistance zone today
2012-09-06 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this effort evidently allowed the price pattern itself to break out to new 11 YEAR highs as well
2012-09-06 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up 2.2%
2012-09-06 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-09-06 16:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have an intermediate term confirmation of a breakout to the upside
2012-09-06 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this now extends our likely time period to where a tradable top might be seen to probably the end of October/beginning of November period
2012-09-06 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2012-09-06 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have some lofty price objectives working here because of the crash in 2000
2012-09-06 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think the target is 3700 or thereabouts
2012-09-06 16:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can get the MCO to move to new highs quickly
2012-09-06 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will be our target for this current move higher
2012-09-06 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the target...one moment
2012-09-06 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2012-09-06 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did you like that fake out in the transports yesterday?
2012-09-06 16:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kept everyone on their heels...and then they were knocked over this morning
2012-09-06 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep...it looks like 3750
2012-09-06 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2012-09-06 16:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke above significant resistance measuring using price by volume
2012-09-06 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could, in theory, really run here
2012-09-06 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully the NDX data is looking better
2012-09-06 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-09-06 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next objective now for the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is the +250 level
2012-09-06 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a break above that could really get the wheels in motion as far as traders beginning to "chase" after the market
2012-09-06 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like we saw in 1999
2012-09-06 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just theory for now
2012-09-06 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing to actually trade on
2012-09-06 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the potential here is exciting
2012-09-06 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2012-09-06 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-09-06 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got what were hoping for on Tuesday
2012-09-06 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO moved sharply higher today
2012-09-06 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2012-09-06 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM was able to hold its zero line
2012-09-06 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we don't have any breadth data to help confirm today's new multi year price highs
2012-09-06 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we can continue to improve from the point where there was balance between buyers and sellers (the zero line)
2012-09-06 16:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially if the broader NASDAQ can lead here
2012-09-06 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't be too concerned at the current divergence
2012-09-06 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be sure...the bulls need to provide some follow through
2012-09-06 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they do..fine
2012-09-06 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got new 4 year highs on the SPX today
2012-09-06 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are now 133 points away from challenging the all time highs
2012-09-06 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is now 872 points from these same all time highs
2012-09-06 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to imagine this happening at the bottom in 2009
2012-09-06 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we are
2012-09-06 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 6% away
2012-09-06 16:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2012-09-06 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NDX
2012-09-06 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have confirmation here as well
2012-09-06 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls will have to continue to put the pressure on here
2012-09-06 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they're successful
2012-09-06 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at challenging these all time highs before the November elections
2012-09-06 16:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got better strength with the OEX breadth MCO than with the broader SPX breadth MCO
2012-09-06 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's close enough to determine that today's advance incorporated the great majority of the 500
2012-09-06 16:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also moved above its late August highs today
2012-09-06 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a small amount of confirmation there
2012-09-06 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2012-09-06 16:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to challenge the higher spike seen at the beginning of August now
2012-09-06 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take that one out...and watch out
2012-09-06 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected, the MID price chart is now testing the 2012 highs
2012-09-06 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will take a break above the mid August highs on the MID breadth MCO in order for this to take place
2012-09-06 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the bulls favor here
2012-09-06 16:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that today's thrust was able to push the MID breadth MCSUM to its highest levels since the April period
2012-09-06 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also just happens to be where we topped out price wise
2012-09-06 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we see follow through on this tomorrow
2012-09-06 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then any new pattern highs in price will be confirmed by this intermediate term breadth oscillator
2012-09-06 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will also give new higher price targets to work with
2012-09-06 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe good for another 150 MID points it looks like
2012-09-06 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 1150 would be the target
2012-09-06 16:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML
2012-09-06 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it closed at new all time highs today
2012-09-06 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you look at the close up chart of the SML breadth MCSUM
2012-09-06 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the nice gap expansion with this breakout to new highs
2012-09-06 16:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money was moving in
2012-09-06 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the yearly chart
2012-09-06 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the MCSUM continuing to "reach out" now to the upside
2012-09-06 16:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 1 year chart
2012-09-06 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can now see the uptrend in progress in prices
2012-09-06 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one in which the internals were telling we should be looking for until proven otherwise
2012-09-06 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: drawing a simple line connecting June and August price bottoms will give you the accelerated trend to work with
2012-09-06 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-09-06 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I think we touched on this before
2012-09-06 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you bring you ruler to monitor
2012-09-06 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connect the bottoms in June and August and it extend it BACKWARDS, that line hits the October 2011 lows
2012-09-06 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is our trend
2012-09-06 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be utilized appropriately
2012-09-06 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ain't that pretty?
2012-09-06 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is your strength here against all comers who continue to use fundamental distractions to their own disservice
2012-09-06 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a bull market
2012-09-06 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plain and simple
2012-09-06 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without the use of props
2012-09-06 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even the data that we review here
2012-09-06 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this trend line is not violated
2012-09-06 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall direction is UP
2012-09-06 16:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: case closed
2012-09-06 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhhh...
2012-09-06 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess what?
2012-09-06 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this trend line holds true on the other charts as well
2012-09-06 16:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check it out
2012-09-06 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just connecting the two points from October of last year and June of this year
2012-09-06 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this again is our trend
2012-09-06 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this trend is at least 9 months old
2012-09-06 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't going to turn around until probably the 1st quarter of next year at the earliest
2012-09-06 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and interestingly enough
2012-09-06 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was what the MCSUM's were suggesting as the possible time period as far back as when we spiked on 7/3
2012-09-06 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember?
2012-09-06 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....we might be in store for at least a duplicate rally that we saw from December of 2011 to April of this year
2012-09-06 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Dow, that was about 1500 points
2012-09-06 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 1500 points would put us at all time highs
2012-09-06 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heading shaking amazing
2012-09-06 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also moved sharply higher today
2012-09-06 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also remains below its mid August highs
2012-09-06 16:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-09-06 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the buyers continue to show good follow up tomorrow
2012-09-06 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pressure on any shorts left out there is going to be quite intense
2012-09-06 16:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what usually happens with trades that are lost
2012-09-06 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: frustration sets in
2012-09-06 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and many just flip to long immediately on their exit
2012-09-06 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will add more fuel to the fire
2012-09-06 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-06 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about in our summary on Tuesday
2012-09-06 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears did not show any backbone on Wednesday
2012-09-06 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they got blown out of the water today because of it
2012-09-06 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength is likely to give a buy signal in the BETS
2012-09-06 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...
2012-09-06 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look to see where we are
2012-09-06 17:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need a +65 for a buy
2012-09-06 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2012-09-06 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm..the AMEX closed off its highs today
2012-09-06 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that wasn't expected
2012-09-06 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-09-06 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the volume lines!
2012-09-06 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are exploding to the upside
2012-09-06 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the NYAD line
2012-09-06 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at +60 through today's close
2012-09-06 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't think we're going to get to +65 this weekend
2012-09-06 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but good enough to trade long with
2012-09-06 17:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2012-09-06 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be enough...
2012-09-06 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-09-06 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just thought of this
2012-09-06 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we needed to move above +45/+50 for a breakout in the BETS
2012-09-06 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would then allow the NYA to breakout to the upside of its triangle
2012-09-06 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we got that today
2012-09-06 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a little insider information before the post on Saturday
2012-09-06 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at sector charts
2012-09-06 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close on the XLY
2012-09-06 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...why would that occur if there's no money to spend?
2012-09-06 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to Tuesday's comments
2012-09-06 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we acknowledged the complex pattern in the XLY breadth MCO at just below the zero line as being a bullish whisper
2012-09-06 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see the result today
2012-09-06 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the other breadth MCO's
2012-09-06 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still need to show some muscle here short term
2012-09-06 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but so far, so good
2012-09-06 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the time
2012-09-06 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see non confirmation highs like this
2012-09-06 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually because of short covering as it might be of fresh buying
2012-09-06 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important, technically, that we take out the mid August highs in the MCO
2012-09-06 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for only fresh buying, energy from the outside, would be able to attain this objective
2012-09-06 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without it
2012-09-06 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't be able to move to higher highs based on "regurgitated" money
2012-09-06 17:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need new highs
2012-09-06 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we got in the XLP breadth MCO
2012-09-06 17:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that confirms the breakout to new all time highs there
2012-09-06 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan just opened up 1.6%, Korea up 2%
2012-09-06 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on the data today
2012-09-06 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the jobs numbers will probably be pretty good in the AM
2012-09-06 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT should stimulate the fresh buying were looking for
2012-09-06 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO did take out its late August highs today
2012-09-06 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our flag is in on the that MCO
2012-09-06 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see a continuation to or towards the XLE breadth MCO zero line over the next day or so
2012-09-06 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we'll most likely see some hesitation, back and fill, and then the real attempt to break above the declining tops line connecting the tops from the July highs on the MCO
2012-09-06 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF price pattern also broke out to new highs today
2012-09-06 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the big test at the 16 level begins
2012-09-06 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice again how the ongoing test of the +250 level of the XLF breadth MCSUM gave us the whisper that we were likely going to break to the upside here
2012-09-06 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any further strength short term
2012-09-06 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will probably be enough to see the XLF break to new 4 year highs above the 17 level
2012-09-06 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's watch this one closely
2012-09-06 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if this is the financials turn to shine
2012-09-06 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no telling where we might be going here
2012-09-06 17:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprisingly
2012-09-06 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV closed at new all time highs today
2012-09-06 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our tip off there was Tuesday's higher close on the XLV breadth MCO
2012-09-06 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at that well defined trend line there
2012-09-06 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever money is seeing down the road
2012-09-06 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only guess
2012-09-06 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as it's showing this kind of support
2012-09-06 17:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who are we to question it?
2012-09-06 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...we got our full snapback to the zero line now in the XLI breadth MCO
2012-09-06 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means we once again have balance between buyers and sellers
2012-09-06 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and most likely
2012-09-06 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who were short the industrials sector have now covered
2012-09-06 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation here though
2012-09-06 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for some back and fill over the next couple of days in the MCO
2012-09-06 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where eventually we'll see support come in at around the -250 level on the XLI breadth MCSUM
2012-09-06 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending how bouyant we are
2012-09-06 17:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should do it for the XLI correction
2012-09-06 17:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this sector will then play catch up
2012-09-06 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this scenario
2012-09-06 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems to playing out right now in the XLB data
2012-09-06 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLB breadth MCO back just above its zero line
2012-09-06 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turning the XLB breadth MCSUM higher
2012-09-06 17:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now a brief pullback should be seen
2012-09-06 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with support coming in at around the -250 level on the XLB MCSUM
2012-09-06 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then off we go to the upside there too
2012-09-06 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the XLY
2012-09-06 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO also powered higher today from its complex pattern under the zero line
2012-09-06 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are at 11 year highs there too
2012-09-06 17:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next upside target will be the 35 level
2012-09-06 17:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a potential for a 12% gain there
2012-09-06 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should help out the NDX
2012-09-06 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU also made it back to its zero line today
2012-09-06 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Tuesday
2012-09-06 17:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move to above the -50 level
2012-09-06 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then snapping back to just below this level
2012-09-06 17:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instructed us that the MCO flag was likely in
2012-09-06 17:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line test would ensue
2012-09-06 17:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: done
2012-09-06 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also where this zero line test is taking place
2012-09-06 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the -750 level on the XLU breadth MCSUM
2012-09-06 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of those 250 multiple natural support areas that we've become so accustomed to
2012-09-06 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it's not likely that we're finished here
2012-09-06 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it does, however, continue to amaze how the market knows when and where to do this kind of thing
2012-09-06 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we still have the 36 level as our price target for this pullback as well
2012-09-06 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-06 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a really good day for the buyers
2012-09-06 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but their work is not done
2012-09-06 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they will need to provide enough to stimulate some new interest in stocks
2012-09-06 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the key here of looking for fresh buying
2012-09-06 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash coming off the sidelines
2012-09-06 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just sitting in some money market collecting nothing but dust
2012-09-06 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this happens
2012-09-06 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lack of selling we've seen over the last 3 months
2012-09-06 17:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could give us quite a rally here
2012-09-06 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from what was "oversold" levels as reflected by the Open 10's
2012-09-06 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume McClellan's
2012-09-06 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE volume MCO's are in sync to the upside with breadth right now
2012-09-06 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO is also back to its zero line...so in sync there
2012-09-06 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market looks in sync here overall
2012-09-06 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2012-09-06 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume and breadth are moving at the same rate of speed to the upside on a trending basis
2012-09-06 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's bullish
2012-09-06 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as it would be if they were moving in sync to the downside that would be bearish
2012-09-06 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this synchronicity
2012-09-06 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can be called "trending" to the upside
2012-09-06 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far we trend
2012-09-06 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to what amplitude we reach
2012-09-06 17:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be determined in the next couple of days
2012-09-06 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not a long wait for the outcome of that
2012-09-06 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the power of up volume today in the CVI's
2012-09-06 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which are now all climactic
2012-09-06 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a price top (pause) should be seen in the next 2 trading days
2012-09-06 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are on the bullish side of neutral
2012-09-06 17:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of the Dow VTO that shot to the moon today
2012-09-06 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other VTO's are also on the bullish side of neutral
2012-09-06 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have some play here yet to go on the upside
2012-09-06 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-09-06 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .27
2012-09-06 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering
2012-09-06 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still minimally "oversold" at 1.01
2012-09-06 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .54
2012-09-06 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 also "oversold" at 1.03
2012-09-06 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .44
2012-09-06 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2012-09-06 17:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-06 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good day of conviction
2012-09-06 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up volume swamped down volume by a 14:1 ratio
2012-09-06 17:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's impressive
2012-09-06 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a technical buy
2012-09-06 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DP is showing 13.89
2012-09-06 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at that chart
2012-09-06 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: under "indicator charts"
2012-09-06 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the last row..."volume ratios"
2012-09-06 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know how important this concept is these days with electronic trading
2012-09-06 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a trade is a trade
2012-09-06 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll respect it for what is may imply
2012-09-06 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-09-06 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if we get quick follow through or not
2012-09-06 17:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do
2012-09-06 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can change our position of being on hold and defensive
2012-09-06 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to buying selectively
2012-09-06 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best news for the bulls
2012-09-06 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the interest rate sensitive A/D lines continue to PROMISE higher equity prices
2012-09-06 17:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we've noticed over the years
2012-09-06 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a good thing to "fade" this kind of information
2012-09-06 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully after tomorrow
2012-09-06 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be back to long and strong
2012-09-06 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2012-09-06 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-09-06 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please remember that we have 3 chats next week
2012-09-06 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday
2012-09-06 17:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it may not have come at a better time
2012-09-06 17:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2012-09-06 17:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we take out the mid August highs in the MCO's
2012-09-06 17:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're going to extend our time line for a tradable top out at least a month
2012-09-06 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depends
2012-09-06 17:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but beyond mid September
2012-09-06 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know...this is all hard to believe given the back drop of everything going on right now
2012-09-06 17:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you also know
2012-09-06 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that markets rally when bad news is prominent
2012-09-06 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and decline when the news is all rosy
2012-09-06 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as the wall of worry remains intact
2012-09-06 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's exploit the upside for all its worth
2012-09-06 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more thing
2012-09-06 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometime next week
2012-09-06 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see some sort of snapback to or toward our breakout line that we violated today
2012-09-06 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as things remain in check
2012-09-06 17:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will give us an opportunity to add to our long positions
2012-09-06 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no chasing
2012-09-06 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: calm and cool...be disciplined
2012-09-06 17:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2012-09-06 17:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-09-06 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-09-06 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2012-09-06 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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