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Posts: 4,883
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-09-05 15:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-09-05 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-09-05 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-09-05 16:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: A Happy New Year to all of our Jewish subscribers!
2013-09-05 16:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up then and see what's happening
2013-09-05 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after stopping just short below the zero line on Wednesday
2013-09-05 16:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved above this line today
2013-09-05 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled the day with a +5 reading
2013-09-05 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our expectation on Tuesday of moving to reach the zero line has now been fulfilled
2013-09-05 16:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we see how we do in getting above the highs of early August
2013-09-05 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for until we do so
2013-09-05 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can still see a swipe of the bear paw in the next couple of sessions
2013-09-05 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but being at the zero line now has lessened the downside momentum to the point in which the buyers can now actually take control of the action
2013-09-05 16:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see this anticipation in the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM which has now flattened out
2013-09-05 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and attempting to turn to the upside at the -128 level
2013-09-05 16:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO MCO components
2013-09-05 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that they are pretty much at dead neutral as well
2013-09-05 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now that we're evened up, one side can take near term control of the pattern
2013-09-05 16:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, not surprisingly, we are again a day away from the jobs numbers
2013-09-05 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which seems that this has been the usual over the last several months...moving to neutral internally prior to the release of the report
2013-09-05 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last time being...our overhead resistance point from last month
2013-09-05 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-09-05 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we first notice that we had a small point change tonight
2013-09-05 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2013-09-05 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dramatic moves these days is at least 1%
2013-09-05 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but usually closer to 1 1/2%
2013-09-05 16:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being at the zero line though does leave the door open as to which direction we might take
2013-09-05 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the MCO pattern
2013-09-05 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we continue to maintain our bottom above a bottom pattern
2013-09-05 16:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have our small point change exactly where we have our blip resistance point from last month
2013-09-05 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we discussed on Tuesday
2013-09-05 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the usual scenario after we have moved back above the zero line after staying below it for a 4-6 week period is to see a pullback to the zero line as a test
2013-09-05 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we have been working with a higher market over the last two days to close the downside gap
2013-09-05 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a possible partial price retracement of this gap closure should occur in conjunction with this same zero line technical snapback
2013-09-05 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have an important fundamental piece of data coming out in the AM
2013-09-05 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the hyperbole going on in the eastern Mediterranean Sea
2013-09-05 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation then would be for some sort of increase in the volatility of the price pattern over the next couple of days (at least so far)
2013-09-05 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE components
2013-09-05 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both remain their zero line
2013-09-05 16:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the MCO above zero
2013-09-05 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components below
2013-09-05 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no trend right now
2013-09-05 16:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern will remain corrective until there is enough of a push in any direction in order to make things "go"
2013-09-05 16:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, is great for day traders
2013-09-05 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much for investors who should be in cash based on last weekend's BETS number anyway
2013-09-05 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart of the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2013-09-05 16:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see what the bulls have in front of them to actually turn this around
2013-09-05 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first is to fill the gap we see from a week ago Monday
2013-09-05 16:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even more importantly
2013-09-05 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we're able to fill the downside gap resistance area as the MCSUM moved down and through its zero line
2013-09-05 16:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intermediate trend will continue to lean towards the bears
2013-09-05 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2013-09-05 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a MCSUM "gap resistance" point develops when the MCO sees it's largest extremes in its pattern
2013-09-05 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where the maximum amount of energy or velocity was felt by either the buyers or (in this case) the sellers
2013-09-05 16:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order to allow prices to break free of this downside push in momentum
2013-09-05 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must be able to fill the point of maximum velocity in this same direction
2013-09-05 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a coincidence that this time around it comes right at the MCSUM zero line
2013-09-05 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being that it is the zero line
2013-09-05 16:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: presents the buyers with two levels of hard resistance to overcome
2013-09-05 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current reading at a -320
2013-09-05 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take the better first half of September to reach this same zero line resistance area
2013-09-05 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-09-05 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is absolutely no rush now to accumulate issues on the idea that we're in the process of creating a tradable bottom
2013-09-05 16:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then allow the market forces work for us and watch as each goal is first challenged and then either met or succeeded in these same challenges
2013-09-05 16:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2013-09-05 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our blueprint continues to be right on the mark
2013-09-05 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the NASDAQ is doing
2013-09-05 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we anticipated on Tuesday
2013-09-05 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we did get upside follow through on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2013-09-05 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it not only took out its zero line
2013-09-05 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also took its highs of early August
2013-09-05 16:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we are challenging the blip resistance point we see on the chart from late July
2013-09-05 16:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NYSE
2013-09-05 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we move above this blip area, we will continue to find overhead resistance at the current ceiling of the ongoing trading range
2013-09-05 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2013-09-05 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 3680 level should be our maximum upside target for now
2013-09-05 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...
2013-09-05 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: blip resistance is taken out near term
2013-09-05 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the price pattern will not only be able to move above the upper range of the pattern
2013-09-05 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any closes above this same level will likely hold
2013-09-05 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then build on that
2013-09-05 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice too that...
2013-09-05 16:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like magic
2013-09-05 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now turning higher after bouncing precisely off its zero line
2013-09-05 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no...I don't really know how the market knows when to do this
2013-09-05 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does
2013-09-05 16:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's probably more important to sometimes accept what can't always be explained
2013-09-05 16:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like how we find the 250 multiples on the MCSUM as being natural areas of support or resistance
2013-09-05 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does re-enforce the concept that the market is not chaotic...that there is always order
2013-09-05 16:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is why TA works
2013-09-05 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why it's not voodoo
2013-09-05 16:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a rhythm...a cadence
2013-09-05 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which once you embrace it
2013-09-05 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes a whole lot easier to "go to work" each day and usually profit from this knowledge
2013-09-05 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small point change as well on the NDX breadth MCO
2013-09-05 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here the leadership continues for the bulls
2013-09-05 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this MCO blew out all of its resistance points on Wednesday
2013-09-05 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we've talk about on other MCO's
2013-09-05 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation now is for some sort of snapback to or towards the zero line to take place
2013-09-05 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern here as well
2013-09-05 16:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the trendline of this new rising MCO structure is taken out
2013-09-05 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance now for the NDX is higher
2013-09-05 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one small problem though we see is with the NDX components
2013-09-05 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which remain well below their early August high points
2013-09-05 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the other side of the coin
2013-09-05 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that this recent strength came in, once again, right where we would expect it too if the prevailing uptrend was still in the previous NDX breadth MCSUM lows of late June
2013-09-05 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so constructive overall
2013-09-05 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although one spark plug may be misfiring a bit
2013-09-05 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing to watch for over the next couple of days
2013-09-05 16:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is how the NDX breadth MCSUM reacts as it now attempts to close the downside MCSUM gap we see on the close up chart that occurred a week ago Monday
2013-09-05 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's filled by Monday
2013-09-05 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then begin our project of selective accumulation
2013-09-05 16:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved slightly higher today
2013-09-05 16:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while it built on the upside break above the MCO zero line on Wednesday
2013-09-05 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with today's extension, we still remain below the early August peak
2013-09-05 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2013-09-05 16:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see what could be a classic "ledge" pattern in progress
2013-09-05 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we do know about these structures are two fold
2013-09-05 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...they tend to develop prior to the final unloading of issues that creates a MCSUM bottom
2013-09-05 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and two...the structure of either a "ledge" or "fishhook" doesn't generally last more than 4 trading days
2013-09-05 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was day 2
2013-09-05 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this context
2013-09-05 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should know by Tuesday of next week what the market really wants to do here
2013-09-05 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a final washout
2013-09-05 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or continue to gain more and more strength to the point that it can turn the "cruise ship " around so that it may move in a new direction (from down to up)
2013-09-05 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also that we can allow a further downside move in the MCSUM to the -250 level and still be technically in an uptrend
2013-09-05 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a real wait and see situation here
2013-09-05 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2013-09-05 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have our ground rules to work by
2013-09-05 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's better than 95% of the traders out there who seem to trade by the seat of their pants
2013-09-05 16:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2013-09-05 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have not only seeing leadership to the upside
2013-09-05 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have now closed above the +25 level
2013-09-05 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get to these levels
2013-09-05 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually enough energy to at least keep prices of moving lower in any important way
2013-09-05 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our only problem though
2013-09-05 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the components are not as yet in full agreement as to the MCO is suggesting
2013-09-05 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch the OEX breadth MCSUM for any sign of a simple "fishhook" pattern developing in co-ordination with the SPX's ledge
2013-09-05 16:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note is that the current curl higher in the OEX breadth MCSUM can also be construed as a simple snapback to or towards the -250 level that was violated late last week
2013-09-05 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from there a final flush to around the -500 level could be anticipated
2013-09-05 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and - viola! - the Dow breadth MCO has finally reached its zero line today
2013-09-05 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the Dow components
2013-09-05 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they remain under pressure here
2013-09-05 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the speed in which the 19 day EMA has been moving away from the 39 day EMA on the Dow A/D line has now stalled (MCO zero line)
2013-09-05 16:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there still isn't enough strength as yet to allow the EMA's themselves from continuing to decline (the below zero line readings in the components)
2013-09-05 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so lots of work still there to do
2013-09-05 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this zero line snapback as being part of this bigger project to turn around the direction of prices
2013-09-05 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2013-09-05 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're seeing this return to neutrality in the Dow MCO just as the MCSUM is challenging its low point of the last 52 weeks
2013-09-05 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coincidence?
2013-09-05 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nah
2013-09-05 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the way things are [smile]
2013-09-05 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO has also pretty much met our forecast from Tuesday of holding at the lows of the pattern, and now challenging its zero line
2013-09-05 16:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as today's reading came in at a -10
2013-09-05 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice thought at the components
2013-09-05 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're seeing better buoyancy with this same constructive pattern
2013-09-05 16:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice as well that...
2013-09-05 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this new found strength is coming in just as the MID breadth MCSUM is challenging its zero line
2013-09-05 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it must be magic! [smile]
2013-09-05 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the near term short term and intermediate term time frames of the trend of money in the MID
2013-09-05 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now dead neutral overall
2013-09-05 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no direction
2013-09-05 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can attempt to take control
2013-09-05 16:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also yesterday's inside range day that predicted today's higher close
2013-09-05 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's lots to see and understand with these charts
2013-09-05 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we use them as our main source of forecasting
2013-09-05 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the SML also had an inside range day on Wednesday with the desired results today of closing higher
2013-09-05 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way that both the SML breadth MCO and MCSUM have reached their zero lines
2013-09-05 16:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note how the MCSUM has literally flat lined right at this same zero line level
2013-09-05 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very typical under these kind of conditions
2013-09-05 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where news events drive the direction of prices
2013-09-05 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we wait for the back and fill to create a more stable foundation from where we can actually build on
2013-09-05 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2013-09-05 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice here that although the components remain under their zero line
2013-09-05 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did get a crossover buy signal today as the 10% moved above the 5% Trend
2013-09-05 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-09-05 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we pretty much got what we were looking for over the last couple of days
2013-09-05 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have to see what the near term outcome is going to be
2013-09-05 17:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2013-09-05 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls odds of success continues to increase in their favor
2013-09-05 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are two ways to go near term
2013-09-05 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we continue to push higher on the back of the textural foundation that has been laid out on many of the breadth MCO's
2013-09-05 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2013-09-05 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a couple of days of pull back to test this same textural structure as to its strength
2013-09-05 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and put in another bottom above a bottom before actually being able to move above our various pattern and blip resistance areas
2013-09-05 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then build on that to eventually close the downside MCSUM gap resistance areas above current levels
2013-09-05 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the sector McClellan's are doing
2013-09-05 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY data is echoing the total market
2013-09-05 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it still has to move above its early August spike point in order to be called "in the clear"
2013-09-05 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern itself is taking on the appearance of a rounding bottom formation
2013-09-05 17:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is better known today as the cup in an cup and handle configuration
2013-09-05 17:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can see here that until the XLY breadth MCO is able to move above the early August highs
2013-09-05 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be very difficult to close the pattern gap from 3 weeks ago
2013-09-05 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP internals remain very weak here
2013-09-05 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take at least a couple of weeks to right that ship
2013-09-05 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2013-09-05 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any market weakness would be accentuated with this basket of issues
2013-09-05 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we thought last week
2013-09-05 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO was able to finally break above its zero line resistance on Wednesday
2013-09-05 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the components still below their zero lines
2013-09-05 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should look for a snapback to or towards the MCO zero line over the next several days
2013-09-05 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, once again, we magically turned higher here exactly as the XLE breadth MCSUM hit the -500 level
2013-09-05 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good strength as well in the XLF breadth MCO
2013-09-05 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2013-09-05 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have this nagging problem of the XLF breadth MCO components not in full agreement of this turnaround
2013-09-05 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, here too, we should look for some sort of reset overall in the next couple of trading sessions
2013-09-05 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO was able to move above the early August highs today
2013-09-05 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still wasn't enough to move above its blip resistance there
2013-09-05 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however the XLI breadth MCO is back on a buy signal now
2013-09-05 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be good news for the Dow Industrials and Transport averages
2013-09-05 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and surprise surprise
2013-09-05 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again this MCSUM has curled higher right at its zero line
2013-09-05 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really is amazing how this happens with so much regularity
2013-09-05 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO also has moved above its resistance levels
2013-09-05 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note here that the XLB breadth MCSUM has turned higher from just below its +250 level
2013-09-05 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-09-05 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO looks to be stalling at near its early August highs
2013-09-05 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small ledge formation is being created on the XLK breadth MCSUM as a direct result
2013-09-05 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to know which way we're likely to go here
2013-09-05 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the buyers are ready and willing, this is the time where they could put their collective foot on the neck of the sellers
2013-09-05 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really make a go of it
2013-09-05 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically though
2013-09-05 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks as though we're going to need a little more time to do so
2013-09-05 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the one thing that we have been consistently reminded about over the last three years is....
2013-09-05 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should NEVER under estimate the underlying strength of this marketplace with the global community continuing to provide ever increasing amounts of liquidity in the system
2013-09-05 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO and MCSUM continues to be under intense selling pressure here
2013-09-05 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this doesn't bode well for lower interest rates anytime soon
2013-09-05 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-09-05 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we hit 3% on the 10 year today
2013-09-05 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first time since 2011
2013-09-05 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo...
2013-09-05 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2013-09-05 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have not only stabilized the market from the August sell off
2013-09-05 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are now in a position to where if they want to, or if the news is good, or that there is political clarity, we could see a nice turnaround here within the time frame given early last month of a potential tradable bottom sometime in the early September period
2013-09-05 17:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also theorize that the first flows of excess capital coming from QE3 monetary policy is about to hit the stock market in a big way
2013-09-05 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the flip side
2013-09-05 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have some areas that can use a bit more time to build a better platform
2013-09-05 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could force us to extend the time perimeters to around September OPEX
2013-09-05 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm sure by next Thursday we'll have a very good handle on what we should expect for the rest of the month
2013-09-05 17:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are frothy
2013-09-05 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the STVO's are now in the areas of being "overbought"
2013-09-05 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the VTO's remain soft to neutral
2013-09-05 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get this kind of condition
2013-09-05 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually see a lot of chop
2013-09-05 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the time periods battle it out as to which side has control
2013-09-05 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .57
2013-09-05 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2013-09-05 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're no longer "oversold"
2013-09-05 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are at a point in which a sell off, or even some price decay, can be seen in order to get the Open 10 back to a more bullish "oversold" reading
2013-09-05 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .51
2013-09-05 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .78
2013-09-05 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and "overbought"
2013-09-05 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we're getting indications that we're going to need a couple of days of soft market behavior...or at the very least...chop sideways
2013-09-05 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this fits well in what some of the MCO's are suggesting with a zero line snapback being first on the agenda before being in a better position to build on the textural undertones we've been seeing
2013-09-05 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2013-09-05 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .45
2013-09-05 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2013-09-05 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-09-05 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls are going to make a go of it near term
2013-09-05 17:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're going to have to do it with a lot of conviction
2013-09-05 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the odds are showing, overall, that we're probably going to "partial fill the gap from last week"
2013-09-05 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll look around again and see how ready we really are to change direction
2013-09-05 17:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2013-09-05 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the amount of texture and zero line snap backs now behind us
2013-09-05 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now decreases the chances that we're going to see new price pattern lows
2013-09-05 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the only real way of that happening is that we'll need to see the current short term trends of the MCO's broken
2013-09-05 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only then will the sellers have the opportunity to move to lower lows
2013-09-05 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should also be divergent ones as well
2013-09-05 17:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-09-05 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2013-09-05 17:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will only be able to put the Weekly Breadth charts up this week without a narrative because of my travels this weekend
2013-09-05 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I should, however, have them up by tomorrow night
2013-09-05 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is a problem
2013-09-05 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will make a post
2013-09-05 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and attempt to take care of it on Saturday night
2013-09-05 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also as a reminder
2013-09-05 17:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next chat will be next Thursday
2013-09-05 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll make up the loss of Tuesday the following week with 3 sessions
2013-09-05 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully we've gone over enough scenarios to hold you all until then [smile]
2013-09-05 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get a prelim on the BETS
2013-09-05 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NAUD is at all time highs
2013-09-05 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +30
2013-09-05 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to accumulation
2013-09-05 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would be prudent and wait for tomorrow to settle
2013-09-05 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing I haven't mentioned
2013-09-05 17:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that this weeks +15 reading on the BETS was a divergent one
2013-09-05 17:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can move back above +30 this week
2013-09-05 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a technical buy signal for the BETS
2013-09-05 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the reading would be that of an accumulation signal
2013-09-05 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be an interesting week though
2013-09-05 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-09-05 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2013-09-05 17:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great week of trading
2013-09-05 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again next Thursday
2013-09-05 17:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2013-09-05 17:39:22 [Message] Jason -> Chat:  Thanks Dave Good night.

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