Chat - 9/4/12

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 9/4/12

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,705

Posted 1346850327	Reply with quote #1

2012-09-04 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day 2012-09-04 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone? 2012-09-04 16:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...are there any questions or comments before we get started?? 2012-09-04 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, if nothing else, let's get DP up and we'll get started 2012-09-04 16:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to just below the -25 level on Thursday 2012-09-04 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line 2012-09-04 16:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even more important 2012-09-04 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also closed today above the previous highs seen just recently at the zero line 2012-09-04 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that, once again, we have found price support at the lower end of the small trading range on the chart 2012-09-04 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at about the 7975 level on the NYA 2012-09-04 16:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a crossover buy signal on the components 2012-09-04 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both are above their zero line as well 2012-09-04 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we're back to a short term buy signal again 2012-09-04 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our snapping back to the declining tops line on the NYSE CO A/D line we review each weekend intact 2012-09-04 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we again must see if the bulls can muster up the strength to move things in their direction 2012-09-04 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move above the mid August highs in the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM would therefore be a highly bullish event 2012-09-04 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if the composite NYSE McClellan data continues to lead here 2012-09-04 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take a look 2012-09-04 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, the good news is that the composite NYSE breadth MCO and its components are back above their zero lines 2012-09-04 16:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bad news is that we have a lower reading on the composite MCO than we do with the CO data 2012-09-04 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could suggest that today's continuation of Friday's bounce might be finished here 2012-09-04 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might be in store for another couple of days of back and fill as we move into this Friday's employment data 2012-09-04 16:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could change, of course, if the buyers continue to follow through on today's intraday reversal first thing on Wednesday 2012-09-04 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to see how this all sorts out 2012-09-04 16:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point 2012-09-04 16:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still looking for a mid September top 2012-09-04 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though it was suggested last Thursday that we might not move with any kind of conviction until the end of this week after our end August pause 2012-09-04 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reversal could be a whisper that we might see some kind of character statement by the bulls before then 2012-09-04 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since everyone seems to be keying in on the ECB announcement on Thursday 2012-09-04 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like so many times that we've see before with the jobs data 2012-09-04 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see some sort of resolution the day before the actual event itself 2012-09-04 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event 2012-09-04 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM remains congested and moving sideways above the +500 level 2012-09-04 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this, in and of itself, will tend to keep prices from moving lower in any important way 2012-09-04 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved higher today 2012-09-04 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have in place a bottom above a bottom again 2012-09-04 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the minimal expectation of an impending low from where prices can advance is now in place 2012-09-04 16:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also back on a crossover buy signal on the NASDAQ components 2012-09-04 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have higher highs now in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to work with now 2012-09-04 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that we are still locked within the MCSUM gap resistance zone here 2012-09-04 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move the July highs in the MCSUM would be a significant bullish event 2012-09-04 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending on any strength we would see on any breakout 2012-09-04 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will fully determine if we're likely to go beyond the mid September period 2012-09-04 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although what felt like a ho hum day 2012-09-04 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was more than met the eye when we look at this data 2012-09-04 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change today on the NDX breadth MCO 2012-09-04 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a small problem of not as yet moving above our blip resistance area as the NYSE data has to this point 2012-09-04 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the NDX breadth MCSUM is going to find technical support at its zero line 2012-09-04 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will now have to make their intentions known as soon as Wednesday 2012-09-04 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think AAPL closed at new all time highs today? 2012-09-04 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, not quite 2012-09-04 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but another buy signal will be given there on any move above $680 2012-09-04 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closed today at $675 2012-09-04 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO components 2012-09-04 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain on a sell signal there 2012-09-04 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a mixed bag of stuff for bull and bear alike so far 2012-09-04 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO 2012-09-04 16:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also moved above our blip resistance area today 2012-09-04 16:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components, however, and we see that the 5% is back above its zero line 2012-09-04 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have either completed a simple snapback 2012-09-04 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our we're going to need maybe one more day of chop before we're able to re-initiate the uptrend 2012-09-04 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that there is strong support of the SPX at 1395/1400 range as we go about our business of a trading range there 2012-09-04 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is still looking weak after creating last week's flag 2012-09-04 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be the best thing we could see technically here near term 2012-09-04 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for a continuation of the SPX and OEX breadth MCO's to move to or towards their zero line on Wednesday 2012-09-04 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pullback again on Thursday 2012-09-04 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can thrust back above the zero line on Friday 2012-09-04 16:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears 2012-09-04 16:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all they want to do is make sure this same scenario doesn't happen 2012-09-04 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have seen once again 2012-09-04 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears still have no backbone here to play with 2012-09-04 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the meantime 2012-09-04 16:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have worked off any "overbought" extremes now that were created going into August OPEX 2012-09-04 16:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the selling picks up very quickly 2012-09-04 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers will again lose their opportunity to move things in their direction 2012-09-04 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be dangerous given the fact that we are just chopping just below what could be MAJOR overhead resistance for the longer term price pattern 2012-09-04 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break out here, therefore, could allow the markets run higher with a great deal of vigor 2012-09-04 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if Arthur is reading this 2012-09-04 16:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but he told me privately last week that we were close to a CLX buy signal 2012-09-04 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact... 2012-09-04 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard briefly from Don over the weekend 2012-09-04 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, he's all bulled up again 2012-09-04 16:31:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol 2012-09-04 16:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should I tell you what he's looking for over the next several weeks? 2012-09-04 16:31:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure 2012-09-04 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 16,000 on the Dow 2012-09-04 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: part of an inverted triangle from the 1998 period to give you the visual 2012-09-04 16:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure 2012-09-04 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to need better volume plurality to pull that off 2012-09-04 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...take it for what it's worth 2012-09-04 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO did move above blip resistance today 2012-09-04 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still has another level of resistance, plus the MCO zero line, to contend with 2012-09-04 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember it was the SPX, OEX and Dow breadth MCO's that were suggesting to us last Thursday that we might not be able to break out to the upside until the end of this week 2012-09-04 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that doesn't look like its changed much 2012-09-04 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the idea of holding, but being defensive, still looks like the best plan...at least so far 2012-09-04 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm 2012-09-04 16:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice strength today to the upside in the MID breadth MCO 2012-09-04 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're back to buy signal there 2012-09-04 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we took out the reaction highs today on the MID breadth MCO 2012-09-04 16:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM has again turned higher having not needed to fully retrace to the +250 level 2012-09-04 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this, shorts will need to be very careful here near term 2012-09-04 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money continues to look good here on a broader based basis 2012-09-04 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also intraday as well 2012-09-04 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's 100 point sell off in the Dow did not push intraday breadth numbers to a sell at any time today 2012-09-04 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we turned around after lunch and then exploded higher around 14:30 2012-09-04 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO also moved higher today 2012-09-04 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it did not take out its reaction high point of last week 2012-09-04 16:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM, however, and we can see that the pattern is starting to stretch out to the upside now 2012-09-04 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any increased activity on the buy side could give us the "all clear" with this basket of issues 2012-09-04 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone move into the REITS I mentioned last week? 2012-09-04 16:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you did...let me know so I can comment on them as we go along 2012-09-04 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...I'll keep quiet 2012-09-04 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO moved back above its zero line today 2012-09-04 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the components gave another buy signal 2012-09-04 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart of the TM breadth MCSUM 2012-09-04 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we're able to take out last Wednesday's blip higher near term 2012-09-04 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would clear the way for new highs there and a break above the July and August highs 2012-09-04 16:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-09-04 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't as much as a good day for the bulls as it was a bad day for the bears 2012-09-04 16:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the sellers continue to have their problem finding others to agree with their assessments 2012-09-04 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that all dried up during the afternoon 2012-09-04 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were, once again, blown out of the water 2012-09-04 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the analogy we like to use in here 2012-09-04 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: someone took then hands off the basketball below the water line in the deep end...and whoosh, up we went 2012-09-04 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another good example of why any shorting should be very selective, and only hit and run affairs for now 2012-09-04 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors 2012-09-04 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO is showing a beautiful complex textural pattern just below its zero line 2012-09-04 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on closer examination 2012-09-04 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have bottoms above bottoms controlling this same pattern 2012-09-04 16:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these tight whipsaws in the MCO pattern show up with the XLY breadth MCSUM moving lower, but with little in the way of gap expansion to the downside 2012-09-04 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the sellers promptly pick up the pace here 2012-09-04 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will have their opportunity to breakout to new all time highs in the price pattern 2012-09-04 16:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the shorts will have to cover just as quickly 2012-09-04 16:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is how robust moves in prices occur from these same compression points 2012-09-04 16:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other point of analysis here 2012-09-04 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that our observation of a possible 3 peaks and domed house is starting to lose its visual support 2012-09-04 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the dome begins to lose its shape 2012-09-04 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking back at the XLY breadth MCSUM, however, and we remain in a larger triangle of indecision 2012-09-04 16:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my sense here is starting to scream that we're going to have a really big move soon 2012-09-04 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't have a high confidence of direction, though there are more indications of up than there are of down 2012-09-04 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ooooo... 2012-09-04 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the thrust in the XLP breadth MCO! 2012-09-04 16:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get good follow through in this sector tomorrow 2012-09-04 16:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a buy 2012-09-04 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the gap expansion today on the XLP breadth MCSUM 2012-09-04 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what bull or bear want to see to support their bias 2012-09-04 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO itself... 2012-09-04 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we refer to as a character move 2012-09-04 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice sharp thrust from a zero line test 2012-09-04 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just need follow through to confirm given the current consolidation 2012-09-04 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO remains under pressure 2012-09-04 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pattern is now looking bullish from the last bottom 2012-09-04 16:55:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that we were able to move back above the -50 level on Friday 2012-09-04 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then snapped back to just below this same level today 2012-09-04 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the angle of descent in the XLE breadth MCO 2012-09-04 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are better than 50% that we're going to see a break of this line of negative influence near term 2012-09-04 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we also have the XLE breadth MCSUM at the +500 level 2012-09-04 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that should provide some natural support to the pattern 2012-09-04 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and look at the components 2012-09-04 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the 5% was able to move back above the zero line 2012-09-04 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapback to it showing us that the current pattern of selling has dissipated 2012-09-04 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart wise though 2012-09-04 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a rounding top working 2012-09-04 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls will have to take care of that with any further strength we might see over the next couple of days 2012-09-04 16:58:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the posting didn't narrow, either 2012-09-04 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet 2012-09-04 16:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 5% is suggesting that it will very soon 2012-09-04 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we were pretty well washed out here 2012-09-04 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the cadence in the last couple of days is positive 2012-09-04 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not worth a buy though 2012-09-04 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're only in the construction phase now 2012-09-04 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a lot of work to do for the bulls 2012-09-04 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLF data 2012-09-04 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got another nice thrust today 2012-09-04 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice how the market is trying its best to hold the +250 level on the XLF breadth MCSUM 2012-09-04 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow thorough tomorrow will then allow the pattern to move to or towards the +500 level 2012-09-04 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can take out the recent spike high of mid August 2012-09-04 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be enough to move to above the spring 2012 price highs and stay there 2012-09-04 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...back to a buy signal there 2012-09-04 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure is hard to short with over half the market looking as bouyant as it is 2012-09-04 17:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good thrust move to the upside as well on the XLV breadth MCO 2012-09-04 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it now looks like that money is moving into the defensive sectors again 2012-09-04 17:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's usually a prelude to a more broader based directional move by the broader market sometime down the road 2012-09-04 17:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the XLV breadth MCSUM has been able to maintain its pattern above the zero line 2012-09-04 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, overall, the bulls are in control here with this group of stocks 2012-09-04 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we now have a created a new flag in the XLI breadth MCO 2012-09-04 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it being able to move above blip resistance today 2012-09-04 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the XLE 2012-09-04 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was able to snapback to around the -50 level today 2012-09-04 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLI breadth MCSUM 2012-09-04 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see what a difference it makes for the sellers when the MCSUM is below the zero line as opposed to being above it 2012-09-04 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't much in the way of price recovery today 2012-09-04 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talk about all the time 2012-09-04 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this ETF sector is great proxy to the strength or weakness of the Dow Industrials and Transports 2012-09-04 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our 3 peaks and a domed house pattern remains intact on this one 2012-09-04 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan down 0.2% at the open 2012-09-04 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point 2012-09-04 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a good chance of a breakdown here to the 35 level 2012-09-04 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also keep in mind 2012-09-04 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLI breadth MCO is now indicating that the worse of the selling is now probably behind us 2012-09-04 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continued weakness as well in the XLB breadth MCO and MCSUM 2012-09-04 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so a weak attempt to rally during the day 2012-09-04 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if one were itching to short here 2012-09-04 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI and XLB sectors would seem to be giving the best odds of an likely profit 2012-09-04 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: definitely a stock pickers market 2012-09-04 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm... 2012-09-04 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLK breadth MCO 2012-09-04 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a complex pattern below its zero line 2012-09-04 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLK breadth MCO components both above their zero line 2012-09-04 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain corrective overall 2012-09-04 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the price pattern itself 2012-09-04 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it sure has the feel of a bull flag formation now on the daily 2012-09-04 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even that is running out of time now before the bears might be able to break things lower 2012-09-04 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this sector is the one to watch of all of them 2012-09-04 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it goes, so will the secondaries 2012-09-04 17:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the energy, industrial, and materials area's soft 2012-09-04 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take the financials and tech to pull prices higher...at least initially 2012-09-04 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both sectors of which have been out of favor for a while 2012-09-04 17:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to fool the many 2012-09-04 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now would be a good time to lead the charge 2012-09-04 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as expected last Thursday 2012-09-04 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLU breadth MCO is now showing good follow through buying (short covering) in its pattern 2012-09-04 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our MCO flag there is confirmed 2012-09-04 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should keep prices from moving much below the 36 level 2012-09-04 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the interest rate derivatives continue to do very well here 2012-09-04 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-09-04 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a mixed bag to be sure 2012-09-04 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall 2012-09-04 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking our cue from the TM data 2012-09-04 17:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall market remains positive, though indecisive 2012-09-04 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very little selling going on 2012-09-04 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this allows prices to move higher once the last of any selling drys up 2012-09-04 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's 2012-09-04 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the CO NYSE volume MCO 2012-09-04 17:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the bears are showing very little conviction here 2012-09-04 17:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the close postings of the CO NYSE volume MCSUM 2012-09-04 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we "feared" last week 2012-09-04 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had that one big day of a gap to the downside 2012-09-04 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then nothing 2012-09-04 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no follow through 2012-09-04 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this changes 2012-09-04 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably better to keep any bearish biases small at this point 2012-09-04 17:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but boy 2012-09-04 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this latest round of bearishness is getting very nasty sentiment wise 2012-09-04 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the frustration level continues to grow 2012-09-04 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've never seen so many "technician's" talk fundamentals 2012-09-04 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like they have either given up or never did believe in their work 2012-09-04 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sad on both accounts 2012-09-04 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the composite NYSE volume MCO 2012-09-04 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be getting ready for something big...trend wise 2012-09-04 17:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no more excuses of vacation now 2012-09-04 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's either commit, or stand aside 2012-09-04 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that the big boys can't stand aside for too long 2012-09-04 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of data this week 2012-09-04 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if any of it will provide the trigger 2012-09-04 17:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the NASDAQ volume MCO 2012-09-04 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and small moves on the NDX, SPX, OEX and Dow volume MCO's as well 2012-09-04 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we move to the MID volume MCO 2012-09-04 17:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we have a bullish move to the upside to compliment its breadth cousin 2012-09-04 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have an expansion gap to the upside in the MID volume MCSUM 2012-09-04 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call the mid caps now on a buy 2012-09-04 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the price action as well 2012-09-04 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not fake out 2012-09-04 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is great news for the bulls 2012-09-04 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a sharp move higher in the SML volume MCO 2012-09-04 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the breadth data showed 2012-09-04 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still haven't moved above last weeks highs 2012-09-04 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOWEVER 2012-09-04 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was enough of a move to move the SML volume McSUM to new highs, and we're now above the +500 level 2012-09-04 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any follow though there tomorrow will give a technical buy signal there as well 2012-09-04 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do get this follow through on both volume MCO"s 2012-09-04 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be able to move to new all time price highs in both markets...and stay there 2012-09-04 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would also extend our time line to around the 1st week of October all depending on the follow through 2012-09-04 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then....we get slapped in face and doused with ice water when we look at the TM volume MCO 2012-09-04 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the 5% Trend is above its zero line 2012-09-04 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM is just below the +250 level 2012-09-04 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-09-04 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID caps are the strongest group right now 2012-09-04 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: followed by the SML 2012-09-04 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the COMPQ 2012-09-04 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the bigger picture of things 2012-09-04 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA continues to be bouyant overall 2012-09-04 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we're anywhere near "oversold" in the volume oscillators or Open 10 2012-09-04 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will have their opportunity to "work the ball" 2012-09-04 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's, STVO's and VTO's are all pretty much neutral now 2012-09-04 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no help there 2012-09-04 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.40 2012-09-04 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09 2012-09-04 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another good example today of how it's very difficult for bears to move prices lower when the Open 10's are as high like as they are right now 2012-09-04 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.50 2012-09-04 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11 2012-09-04 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold" 2012-09-04 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.42 2012-09-04 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12 2012-09-04 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo. 2012-09-04 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control overall 2012-09-04 17:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though they're a bit battered from the first half of play 2012-09-04 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be getting ready for the second half here 2012-09-04 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the bears aren't careful, they could easily be blown out of the water short term 2012-09-04 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow we have ADP... 2012-09-04 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what else 2012-09-04 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: productivity 2012-09-04 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to that is a high number suggests that inflation is being controlled 2012-09-04 17:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at Thursday 2012-09-04 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ADP 2012-09-04 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jobless claims 2012-09-04 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISM service 2012-09-04 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: announcements on the debt auction 2012-09-04 17:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy numbers 2012-09-04 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the ECB 2012-09-04 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday...jobs 2012-09-04 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-09-04 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't let this market frustrate you 2012-09-04 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully you're playing issues and not the market 2012-09-04 17:40:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet 2012-09-04 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: playing the market here is really tough until we get a commitment 2012-09-04 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh, when you get a chance 2012-09-04 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have put up September's chat schedule in the transcripts area 2012-09-04 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please be sure to mark your calendars accordingly since it's a short month 2012-09-04 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have 3 chats next week 2012-09-04 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one the following 2012-09-04 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then 2 at the end of the month...but Wednesday and Thursday 2012-09-04 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else 2012-09-04 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off 2012-09-04 17:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days 2012-09-04 17:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try not to fall asleep 2012-09-04 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are looking on Thursday 2012-09-04 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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