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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-03 16:00:29 fib1618: good day
2015-09-03 16:00:32 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-03 16:02:02 thespookyone: Fantastic-due to your INCREDIBLE call=props!
2015-09-03 16:02:25 fib1618: naw...it's all guess work [smile]
2015-09-03 16:02:51 thespookyone: well, it did exceed your 1975 by one cent on cash [smile]
2015-09-03 16:02:58 fib1618: darn!
2015-09-03 16:03:16 fib1618: see...even I get it wrong from time to time
2015-09-03 16:03:31 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-03 16:06:09 fib1618: OK...let me get settled in
2015-09-03 16:06:30 fib1618: and let's get SC up and get started
2015-09-03 16:06:56 fib1618: after rebounding back above the zero line on Wednesday
2015-09-03 16:07:10 fib1618: we saw some follow through today on the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2015-09-03 16:07:31 fib1618: as it also took out last week's high point in this same effort
2015-09-03 16:07:37 fib1618: problem though
2015-09-03 16:07:48 fib1618: is that we came in today with a reading of +25
2015-09-03 16:08:25 fib1618: and in order for us to have confirmation of a price low in this sequence
2015-09-03 16:08:34 fib1618: we still need to move above this area of resistance
2015-09-03 16:08:43 fib1618: looking at the NYA
2015-09-03 16:08:50 fib1618: we see that it rallied as expected
2015-09-03 16:09:26 fib1618: and pulled back during the day showing how important it was for the +25 level to be taken out
2015-09-03 16:09:39 fib1618: pattern wise
2015-09-03 16:09:57 fib1618: we now have a nice outline of our expected symmetrical triangle on the daily chart
2015-09-03 16:10:37 fib1618: with the highs of the day hitting the triangles declining trendline before moving back into pattern
2015-09-03 16:10:49 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-09-03 16:10:56 fib1618: and we see that both remain below their zero lines
2015-09-03 16:11:04 fib1618: and when the MCO is one side of zero
2015-09-03 16:11:11 fib1618: and the components on the other side
2015-09-03 16:11:17 fib1618: we should expect prices to chop sideways
2015-09-03 16:11:31 fib1618: and that would fit with the triangle as well
2015-09-03 16:12:04 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-03 16:12:11 fib1618: and here we closed today with a +26 reading
2015-09-03 16:12:21 fib1618: so a bit over the important +25 level
2015-09-03 16:13:03 fib1618: but not enough to say that a challenge of the crash lows would be a successful one
2015-09-03 16:13:47 fib1618: this then opens the door to the probability that this triangle is in the fourth position of an Elliott impulse
2015-09-03 16:13:55 fib1618: as opposed to a "B" wave
2015-09-03 16:14:01 fib1618: if this is correct
2015-09-03 16:14:17 fib1618: then we are still tracing out a larger wave "C"
2015-09-03 16:14:31 fib1618: with the final move lower, wave 5, still to come
2015-09-03 16:14:41 fib1618: with 5th waves
2015-09-03 16:15:03 fib1618: we will see bullish divergent structures on nearly all momentum oscillators on a daily basis
2015-09-03 16:15:16 fib1618: and then we'll have to see how things bounce
2015-09-03 16:15:28 fib1618: let's see if the other indices are in agreement or not
2015-09-03 16:15:51 fib1618: well...we have a small point change tonight on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-03 16:16:16 fib1618: but the more important near term problem here is that, unlike the NYA data, this MCO did not move to a higher high
2015-09-03 16:17:14 fib1618: and this doesn't bode well when we finally get to our MCSUM gap resistance zone seen on the 21 day close up chart with the lows seen on 8/24
2015-09-03 16:17:40 fib1618: notice also the lethargic behavior of the components as well
2015-09-03 16:17:52 fib1618: and based on what we've seeing over the last week or so
2015-09-03 16:18:12 fib1618: it would appear that the problem is still with the NDX basket of issues
2015-09-03 16:18:17 fib1618: so let's see how they're doing
2015-09-03 16:18:31 fib1618: and as feared
2015-09-03 16:18:51 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO has only been able to again snapback up to its zero line
2015-09-03 16:19:01 fib1618: and still remains below the highs of last week
2015-09-03 16:19:31 fib1618: so it's no wonder then that equities "quit" on the bulls in the afternoon session
2015-09-03 16:20:05 fib1618: as there wasn't any additional buying to make a difference when both sides were balanced
2015-09-03 16:20:30 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-09-03 16:20:35 fib1618: and here we had a better turn out
2015-09-03 16:20:44 fib1618: as this MCO moved back above its zero line today
2015-09-03 16:20:54 fib1618: but with a reading of +10
2015-09-03 16:21:05 fib1618: is still a ways away from the important +25 level
2015-09-03 16:21:26 thespookyone: Both the NDX and SPX still look a bit like ledges
2015-09-03 16:22:59 fib1618: I would be more inclined to call them hesitation points right now
2015-09-03 16:23:05 fib1618: though with a reading closer to +25
2015-09-03 16:23:41 fib1618: that would probably fit the guidelines of a ledge where we fail to have enough energy to turn things from one direction to the other and then fall off the ledge in the failure
2015-09-03 16:23:55 fib1618: regardless
2015-09-03 16:24:04 fib1618: there's not a lot of punch here with the last two days of reflex
2015-09-03 16:24:07 fib1618: and because of this
2015-09-03 16:24:30 fib1618: it would seem that there is still some additional sloshing going on in the bathtub right now
2015-09-03 16:24:53 fib1618: as Lew noted earlier
2015-09-03 16:25:03 fib1618: both of our upside targets from Tuesday for the SPX were also met today
2015-09-03 16:25:21 fib1618: so with our technical expectations of a bounce is now behind us
2015-09-03 16:25:36 fib1618: and with little in the way of underlying strength accompanying this reflex
2015-09-03 16:25:45 fib1618: it may be time to back and fill lower
2015-09-03 16:26:11 fib1618: let's get out our trusty calculator and see what we can expect for wave "D" of the triangle
2015-09-03 16:27:10 fib1618: 1930.50 intraday
2015-09-03 16:27:58 fib1618: and 1928.15 on the close
2015-09-03 16:28:15 fib1618: the reason we're off a little there
2015-09-03 16:28:21 fib1618: with the close lower than the intraday
2015-09-03 16:28:31 fib1618: is because of the weakness into today's close
2015-09-03 16:28:43 fib1618: took out 20 SnP points
2015-09-03 16:28:53 fib1618: in any event
2015-09-03 16:29:08 fib1618: let's look for something in between the two numbers
2015-09-03 16:29:25 fib1618: which means...about a 20 point decline
2015-09-03 16:29:32 fib1618: if we hit this on Friday
2015-09-03 16:29:45 fib1618: wave "E" would measure...
2015-09-03 16:30:07 fib1618: 1943 on the close
2015-09-03 16:30:29 fib1618: and 1957 intraday
2015-09-03 16:30:59 fib1618: again...we're a bit off kilter because of the today's range from intraday highs to the close
2015-09-03 16:31:13 fib1618: all in a perfect Elliott world, of course
2015-09-03 16:31:21 fib1618: timing?
2015-09-03 16:32:03 fib1618: based on that it took 3 days up and down for A and B
2015-09-03 16:32:08 fib1618: and C taking 2 days
2015-09-03 16:32:28 fib1618: let's figure that we should finish the triangle by Tuesday
2015-09-03 16:32:38 fib1618: and then we'll see which way we break
2015-09-03 16:32:41 fib1618: higher or lower
2015-09-03 16:32:46 fib1618: for wave 5 of C
2015-09-03 16:32:52 fib1618: naturally it would be lower
2015-09-03 16:33:07 fib1618: for a corrective wave C - it would be higher
2015-09-03 16:33:38 fib1618: and it would unwind in 5's
2015-09-03 16:33:58 fib1618: should be an interesting week actually
2015-09-03 16:34:01 fib1618: with Monday being a holiday
2015-09-03 16:34:05 fib1618: and Wednesday WWW
2015-09-03 16:34:36 fib1618: so we might be hurrying things up on Friday
2015-09-03 16:34:52 fib1618: maybe a lower open because of disappointment with the jobs data
2015-09-03 16:35:10 fib1618: and then rally into the close ass traders even up for the long weekend
2015-09-03 16:35:25 fib1618: in any event
2015-09-03 16:35:35 fib1618: so far...the last two days have NOT been impressive internally
2015-09-03 16:35:51 fib1618: looking at the OEX breadth MCO
2015-09-03 16:36:06 fib1618: and here too we barely made it back above the zero line
2015-09-03 16:36:25 fib1618: as the OEX breadth MCSUM is right on -750
2015-09-03 16:36:49 fib1618: so the only way that's going to hold is that we need not only some short covering near term
2015-09-03 16:37:01 fib1618: but we''ll really need some fresh buying
2015-09-03 16:37:15 fib1618: and there's nothing as yet suggesting that this is going to happen
2015-09-03 16:37:17 fib1618: at least so far
2015-09-03 16:37:33 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-09-03 16:37:51 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM is doing its best in holding in and around the -1000 level
2015-09-03 16:38:11 fib1618: closing today with a -1029 reading
2015-09-03 16:38:23 fib1618: notice also
2015-09-03 16:38:46 fib1618: how the SPX, OEX and Dow breadth MCSUM's are just treading water sideways here for the last couple of days
2015-09-03 16:39:24 fib1618: so we should see some resolution by the time we meet up again next Tuesday
2015-09-03 16:39:49 fib1618: as we thought might happen
2015-09-03 16:40:05 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO did move back above its zero line
2015-09-03 16:40:14 fib1618: settling today with a +32 reading
2015-09-03 16:40:23 fib1618: this has now turned the MID breadth MCSUM higher
2015-09-03 16:40:44 fib1618: and back to just below the -500 level
2015-09-03 16:41:08 fib1618: but with the majors showing a lack of strength here in the last two days
2015-09-03 16:41:34 fib1618: this natural area of resistance in the MID MCSUM might again be too much to overcome for right now
2015-09-03 16:41:38 fib1618: and if this happens
2015-09-03 16:41:47 fib1618: we should see a even harder move to the downside
2015-09-03 16:41:56 fib1618: as the internals would trigger a rally failure
2015-09-03 16:42:40 fib1618: looking at the daily price pattern of the MID
2015-09-03 16:43:05 fib1618: and it sure looks like we're still in wave 3 down...minor wave 4 being the current triangle
2015-09-03 16:43:09 fib1618: and if that's the case
2015-09-03 16:43:28 fib1618: we still have a series of 4's and 5's waiting to raise its ugly head short term
2015-09-03 16:43:39 fib1618: for now
2015-09-03 16:44:11 fib1618: with the MID breadth MCO able to move above the +25 level
2015-09-03 16:44:48 fib1618: we have confirmation that the lows of two weeks ago maybe challenged, but they should not breach on the first test
2015-09-03 16:45:13 fib1618: problem though with this idea
2015-09-03 16:45:28 fib1618: is that we closed right on the lows of the day on 8/25
2015-09-03 16:46:26 fib1618: so that price level would need to be breached in order to finish in 5's
2015-09-03 16:46:34 fib1618: tough call
2015-09-03 16:47:06 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO is showing nearly the same situation right now
2015-09-03 16:47:24 fib1618: but with this MCO only coming in with a +27 reading
2015-09-03 16:47:41 fib1618: there's not a lot of confidence that we'll see any positive follow through on this near term
2015-09-03 16:47:53 fib1618: which means a retracement
2015-09-03 16:48:17 fib1618: also of note
2015-09-03 16:48:32 fib1618: that when we look on the 21 day close up chart
2015-09-03 16:49:05 fib1618: we see that the SML breadth MCSUM is just about to challenge the -750 level
2015-09-03 16:49:24 fib1618: and we're right in the first of two large MCSUM gap resistance zones on the chart
2015-09-03 16:49:38 fib1618: that's a lot of resistance to overcome
2015-09-03 16:49:59 fib1618: and because of fact that the path of least resistance remains lower for now based on the BETS numbers
2015-09-03 16:50:16 fib1618: we could see this index leading to the downside over the next couple of days
2015-09-03 16:50:33 fib1618: which would mean the RUT would likely echo this forecast
2015-09-03 16:51:01 fib1618: and a +23 reading on the TM breadth MCO
2015-09-03 16:51:35 fib1618: so nothing there either of which the buyers could look for near term extended strength of pattern
2015-09-03 16:53:57 fib1618: OK..let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-09-03 16:54:34 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO has also snapped back up to its zero line now
2015-09-03 16:55:23 fib1618: as the XLY breadth MCSUM desperately tries to hold on to the horizontal lows seen on the chart at the -325 level
2015-09-03 16:55:52 fib1618: with the XLY components still under their zero lines
2015-09-03 16:56:14 fib1618: it would appear that one side is about to take control...with the sellers having a slight advantage
2015-09-03 16:57:04 fib1618: we see that we had a nice bit of strength supporting the XLP breadth MCO this past couple of days
2015-09-03 16:57:28 fib1618: but we were only able to move to just above the +25 level with a reading today of +27
2015-09-03 16:57:48 fib1618: though it's nice to see some support with this defensive sector
2015-09-03 16:58:44 fib1618: we'll need to see a bit more energy moving in here before we can begin to work with the idea that the market is about to show some favor toward these same isssues
2015-09-03 16:59:31 fib1618: and our focus there would come in seeing the XLP MCO components moving back above their zero lines
2015-09-03 16:59:36 fib1618: came close today
2015-09-03 16:59:50 fib1618: but close only counts in horseshoes
2015-09-03 17:00:36 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO is continuing to attract money over the last week
2015-09-03 17:00:51 fib1618: as the price of crude has been doing its best in hammering out our forecasted tradable low
2015-09-03 17:01:15 fib1618: note here, however, that we only today crossed back above the -1500 level in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2015-09-03 17:01:28 fib1618: and with all of this MCO strength
2015-09-03 17:01:39 fib1618: the XLE MCO components STILL remain below their zero lines
2015-09-03 17:02:00 fib1618: so we're seeing some constructive behavior
2015-09-03 17:02:12 fib1618: but only enough to stop the hemorrhaging
2015-09-03 17:02:38 fib1618: we still have a ways to go before this patient is out of bed and walking around
2015-09-03 17:03:04 fib1618: zero line snapback also complete on the XLF breadth MCO
2015-09-03 17:03:31 fib1618: note here how the -250 level on the XLF breadth MCSUM in playing its part in keeping things from falling apart
2015-09-03 17:03:48 fib1618: so nothing there suggesting that the worse is behind us
2015-09-03 17:04:21 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO looks like its in bad shape
2015-09-03 17:04:33 fib1618: maybe in intensive care
2015-09-03 17:04:52 fib1618: as the XLV breadth MCSUM moved down and through the -500 level today
2015-09-03 17:05:08 fib1618: well..let's call it yesterday
2015-09-03 17:05:18 fib1618: in any event...we have downside follow through there
2015-09-03 17:05:40 fib1618: so we should expect a weaker couple of days of trading here
2015-09-03 17:06:23 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO has a familiar look to it
2015-09-03 17:06:29 fib1618: as it moved to a higher high today
2015-09-03 17:06:43 fib1618: but remain below the important +25 level
2015-09-03 17:07:07 fib1618: and we still have a downside expectation for the XLI breadth MCSUM to fulfill as well
2015-09-03 17:07:36 fib1618: we did get good upside follow through in the XLB breadth MCO today
2015-09-03 17:07:52 fib1618: as it settled today at the +53 level
2015-09-03 17:08:32 fib1618: this should be enough of a thrust now to where we could see a chain of days where the XLB breadth MCSUM will be moving higher
2015-09-03 17:08:48 fib1618: as we just today moved back above the -1250 level
2015-09-03 17:08:56 fib1618: so any follow through there by Tuesday
2015-09-03 17:09:06 fib1618: and we could be in the same situation as the XLE
2015-09-03 17:09:19 fib1618: where much of the willing and unwilling selling is behind us
2015-09-03 17:09:46 fib1618: and the balance of power will slowly start to move from the sell side to the buy side
2015-09-03 17:10:29 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO has done quite a bit of work over the last two days
2015-09-03 17:10:55 fib1618: taking it from a -67 reading on Tuesday to a +29 reading today
2015-09-03 17:11:39 fib1618: the price pattern though, like many of the charts right now, has a funky look to it
2015-09-03 17:12:27 fib1618: and it wouldn't be at all surprising that we would see a 2-3 day period of back and filling to correct this funk
2015-09-03 17:12:59 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCO moved to a lower low this week
2015-09-03 17:13:13 fib1618: and that spells big trouble for the XLU itself
2015-09-03 17:13:46 fib1618: especially after we were able to zoom higher to the +153 level in mid August
2015-09-03 17:13:56 fib1618: luckily for the holders of longs here
2015-09-03 17:14:15 fib1618: is that the XLU breadth MCSUM is still above the +500 level
2015-09-03 17:14:31 fib1618: otherwise prices would had sold off even harder than we have already seen
2015-09-03 17:15:00 fib1618: we're going to have to stand aside there for now
2015-09-03 17:15:09 fib1618: as it's a real technical mess
2015-09-03 17:15:18 fib1618: and we're going to need to wait for more information
2015-09-03 17:15:23 fib1618: too bad too
2015-09-03 17:15:50 fib1618: the long trade looked real good there even after last week
2015-09-03 17:15:55 fib1618: but I don't know now
2015-09-03 17:16:13 fib1618: let me look at a longer term chart - one sec
2015-09-03 17:16:56 fib1618: looks like the downside risk now is to $39
2015-09-03 17:17:29 fib1618: but a break below $39 would change the trend from up to down
2015-09-03 17:17:40 fib1618: on a longer term basis
2015-09-03 17:17:43 fib1618: so...we'll see
2015-09-03 17:17:45 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-03 17:17:53 fib1618: not a lot of good news for the bulls tonight
2015-09-03 17:18:34 fib1618: as we continue to work off the momentum of the "crash like" decline of the end of August
2015-09-03 17:18:38 fib1618: so far
2015-09-03 17:18:46 fib1618: we've been to see a nice rhythm develop
2015-09-03 17:19:05 fib1618: but unless we see some new buying support come in by Tuesday
2015-09-03 17:19:39 fib1618: it's very likely that we'll see another challenge of the 8/24-8/25 nesting lows
2015-09-03 17:20:03 fib1618: and probably go beyond it in order to generate bullish divergence
2015-09-03 17:20:20 fib1618: for now...another couple of days of high volatility chop
2015-09-03 17:20:37 fib1618: and then a probable wash out by the middle of next week
2015-09-03 17:21:01 fib1618: Fed meeting is a week after that
2015-09-03 17:21:35 fib1618: and everyone screaming now around the globe to let Janet know that if she raises rates, it will be her head if it backfires
2015-09-03 17:21:45 fib1618: and it will
2015-09-03 17:21:50 fib1618: business is very poor right now
2015-09-03 17:21:56 fib1618: no matter how they spin it
2015-09-03 17:22:09 fib1618: and if business for us is poor now
2015-09-03 17:22:18 fib1618: the market will feel it around Thanksgiving
2015-09-03 17:22:34 fib1618: so I'm not too high on it being a good year for retail brick and mortar holiday shopping
2015-09-03 17:22:37 thespookyone: I don't see the logic in raising rates here, help me out
2015-09-03 17:22:44 fib1618: I don't see it either
2015-09-03 17:22:48 fib1618: the biggest problem is
2015-09-03 17:23:20 fib1618: there are many businesses out there that are carrying variable interest rate debt right now
2015-09-03 17:23:36 fib1618: and they are struggling with the new rules from Frank/Dodd in keeping up
2015-09-03 17:23:55 fib1618: we also have the chip credit cards going into affect on October 1st
2015-09-03 17:24:41 fib1618: and already there are businesses are balking at this because if their customer doesn't use the chip, the business, and not the bank, is responsible for any fraud on the charge
2015-09-03 17:25:00 thespookyone: wow
2015-09-03 17:25:20 fib1618: there are already too many high costs of doing business on the oft chance of fraud already
2015-09-03 17:25:30 fib1618: and this is not being well received
2015-09-03 17:25:44 fib1618: combine this with everyone trying to raise the minimum wage
2015-09-03 17:25:51 fib1618: and there is a real bit of hurt going on here
2015-09-03 17:26:13 fib1618: so even a 1/4% jump can make a big difference each month
2015-09-03 17:26:20 fib1618: anything above that
2015-09-03 17:26:37 fib1618: and my sense is that we're going to see a rise in business bankruptcies
2015-09-03 17:26:53 fib1618: inventories are stagnant
2015-09-03 17:27:00 fib1618: who knows what's going to happen with China
2015-09-03 17:27:11 fib1618: and we have nothing to fall back on here in the states
2015-09-03 17:27:22 fib1618: it's very tough
2015-09-03 17:27:28 fib1618: but I digress
2015-09-03 17:27:38 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are doing
2015-09-03 17:28:23 fib1618: no changes at all
2015-09-03 17:28:33 fib1618: CVI's and STVO's remain neutral
2015-09-03 17:28:39 fib1618: VTO's "oversold"
2015-09-03 17:28:46 fib1618: and not showing any sign of life
2015-09-03 17:28:59 fib1618: it's like getting hit by a car
2015-09-03 17:29:09 fib1618: and you try to get up and stagger around
2015-09-03 17:29:24 fib1618: and then fall back to ground because you can't get your bearings
2015-09-03 17:29:35 fib1618: better analogy
2015-09-03 17:29:41 fib1618: a prize fighter
2015-09-03 17:29:50 fib1618: and getting suckered punched
2015-09-03 17:30:08 fib1618: sheesh
2015-09-03 17:30:14 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .74
2015-09-03 17:30:18 fib1618: short covering
2015-09-03 17:30:31 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.20
2015-09-03 17:30:31 orange: futures just got slammed, so
2015-09-03 17:30:43 fib1618: they must be reading our chat...who's the spy in the room?!?
2015-09-03 17:31:01 fib1618: but seriously
2015-09-03 17:31:08 thespookyone: whoa
2015-09-03 17:31:11 fib1618: you're all seeing what I'm seeing
2015-09-03 17:31:30 fib1618: and the last two days did what we expected minimally
2015-09-03 17:31:55 fib1618: but didn't do much to change the overall market weighting
2015-09-03 17:32:00 fib1618: we've seen this all before
2015-09-03 17:32:04 fib1618: you have a big move in one direction or the other
2015-09-03 17:32:06 fib1618: and you consolidate
2015-09-03 17:32:27 fib1618: try to find balance again between buyers and sellers
2015-09-03 17:32:36 fib1618: and then one side takes over again
2015-09-03 17:32:51 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .89
2015-09-03 17:33:03 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2015-09-03 17:33:15 fib1618: TM TRIN at .95
2015-09-03 17:33:30 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.13
2015-09-03 17:33:33 fib1618: so...
2015-09-03 17:33:47 fib1618: we have a relatively good floor below us right now
2015-09-03 17:34:19 fib1618: and that should keep things buoyant for now
2015-09-03 17:34:33 fib1618: let's look for a sell off tomorrow to counterbalance the last couple of days
2015-09-03 17:35:04 fib1618: and prepare for next week which should provide the missing pieces of when all of this is likely to end up
2015-09-03 17:35:06 fib1618: for now
2015-09-03 17:35:38 fib1618: there hasn't been any real changes to the beginning of October as our next timing for a tradable bottom
2015-09-03 17:35:43 fib1618: so we'll keep with that
2015-09-03 17:35:47 fib1618: also remember
2015-09-03 17:36:07 fib1618: the FED announcement is 2 days before OPEX
2015-09-03 17:36:40 fib1618: so the next couple of weeks will likely to continue to be quite exciting
2015-09-03 17:36:43 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-09-03 17:37:56 fib1618: -70
2015-09-03 17:38:05 fib1618: no change from Tuesday
2015-09-03 17:38:19 fib1618: and that's a problem after the market has rallied 4-5%
2015-09-03 17:38:31 fib1618: we have 3 cumulative charts about to go bearish
2015-09-03 17:38:38 fib1618: and one about to go bullish
2015-09-03 17:38:50 fib1618: we'll see how it all sorts out this weekend
2015-09-03 17:38:52 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-03 17:39:43 thespookyone: It's kind of funny, when oil bottoms and starts to rise, it's kind of "another nail" in the economy
2015-09-03 17:40:02 fib1618: well...things have been weak for a while
2015-09-03 17:40:14 fib1618: the biggest problem is something we've discussed before
2015-09-03 17:40:19 fib1618: and it's small business
2015-09-03 17:40:28 fib1618: because of Frank/Dodd
2015-09-03 17:40:56 fib1618: the smaller regional banks are having a tough time competing with the larger money centers
2015-09-03 17:41:19 fib1618: and the larger money centers are being overly cautious on what they're approving
2015-09-03 17:41:40 fib1618: there's also no relationships with these behemoths either
2015-09-03 17:42:31 fib1618: so many small businesses, and we'll say those businesses with less than 10 employees, are really in a bind right now
2015-09-03 17:42:49 fib1618: and these are your neighborhood job creators
2015-09-03 17:43:12 orange: Minimum wages going up here in the Washington state areas, that should help!
2015-09-03 17:43:21 fib1618: no, it won't
2015-09-03 17:43:27 fib1618: it will only make the problem worse
2015-09-03 17:43:29 orange: sarcasm, sorry
2015-09-03 17:43:34 fib1618: I know
2015-09-03 17:43:59 fib1618: but there are those out there who don't understand that raises in the minimum wage only help in raising taxes
2015-09-03 17:44:17 fib1618: they don't think about...well...a waiter or waitress for example
2015-09-03 17:44:26 fib1618: with higher wages
2015-09-03 17:44:32 fib1618: comes higher costs of food
2015-09-03 17:44:39 fib1618: and higher costs of food
2015-09-03 17:44:57 fib1618: takes away from larger bills at the end of the meal
2015-09-03 17:45:17 fib1618: and if people know that their server is getting more money
2015-09-03 17:45:20 fib1618: why tip them?
2015-09-03 17:45:23 fib1618: and then
2015-09-03 17:45:58 fib1618: the restaurant itself may not be able to afford free meals to its employees
2015-09-03 17:46:14 orange: didn't think about that
2015-09-03 17:46:24 fib1618: it goes on and on
2015-09-03 17:46:30 fib1618: and to be honest
2015-09-03 17:46:46 fib1618: owners of businesses will have to make a decision on those they hire
2015-09-03 17:46:54 fib1618: are they worth $12.50 an hour?
2015-09-03 17:47:06 fib1618: as opposed in training them at $6.00?
2015-09-03 17:47:13 fib1618: so they're going to be more selective
2015-09-03 17:47:23 fib1618: and that knocks out many more people looking for work because they don't have a particular skill...natural or taught
2015-09-03 17:47:35 fib1618: I won't be hiring at $12.50 an hour
2015-09-03 17:47:37 fib1618: because I have to match the Social Security taxes and pay out the federal and state taxes on the payrolls, no less, Workers Comp insurance premiums are based on the income paid to employees (and that's aside from state disability)
2015-09-03 17:48:16 fib1618: so by the time it's all said and done
2015-09-03 17:48:25 fib1618: I'm actually paying closer to $18.50 an hour
2015-09-03 17:48:49 fib1618: but don't let any of this get in the way of giving folks a "living wage"
2015-09-03 17:48:58 fib1618: I mean...
2015-09-03 17:49:12 fib1618: what's to live for if there isn't ANY jobs to be had?
2015-09-03 17:49:23 fib1618: the next thing they'll do is FORCE you to hire
2015-09-03 17:49:29 fib1618: don't think that will happen?
2015-09-03 17:49:35 fib1618: think Obamacare
2015-09-03 17:49:49 fib1618: I would rather close my doors
2015-09-03 17:49:50 thespookyone: Probably California first [smile]
2015-09-03 17:50:06 fib1618: it is absolutely ridiculous here
2015-09-03 17:50:12 thespookyone: It is
2015-09-03 17:50:13 fib1618: they want to raise taxes again
2015-09-03 17:50:23 fib1618: and this is after they have a surplus this year!
2015-09-03 17:50:53 fib1618: anyway...it's not easy out there
2015-09-03 17:50:59 fib1618: so many rules to follow
2015-09-03 17:51:03 fib1618: so many fees to pay
2015-09-03 17:51:17 fib1618: and if you screw up, you get penalized
2015-09-03 17:51:26 fib1618: last quick story
2015-09-03 17:51:34 fib1618: I had a customer come in today
2015-09-03 17:51:44 fib1618: and she started a home business to make ends meet
2015-09-03 17:51:47 fib1618: lucky for her
2015-09-03 17:52:05 fib1618: she has been doing very well selling stuff on ETSY etc
2015-09-03 17:52:13 fib1618: so she's had to hire people
2015-09-03 17:52:30 fib1618: and she's had to hire an accountant
2015-09-03 17:52:41 fib1618: and she now has to set herself up with the state
2015-09-03 17:52:43 fib1618: etc
2015-09-03 17:52:53 fib1618: and she said to me today..."now I'm not making any money"
2015-09-03 17:52:59 fib1618: but what do I do?
2015-09-03 17:53:02 fib1618: raise my prices?
2015-09-03 17:53:04 fib1618: if I do that
2015-09-03 17:53:21 fib1618: then I will price myself out because my competition is China
2015-09-03 17:53:53 thespookyone: you have to find a way to 1099 some of the workers, like shipping, etc
2015-09-03 17:53:57 fib1618: where China is subsidizing all of the manufacturers there by paying the freight to ship things direct, to the ultimate consumer in the US
2015-09-03 17:54:13 fib1618: what do you do?
2015-09-03 17:54:17 fib1618: <shrug>
2015-09-03 17:54:27 fib1618: business is not good overall
2015-09-03 17:54:31 fib1618: and for my industry
2015-09-03 17:54:43 fib1618: which was sacrificed for trade policies
2015-09-03 17:55:14 fib1618: there is no manufacturing done in US anymore...so no more choices
2015-09-03 17:55:26 fib1618: and so it goes
2015-09-03 17:55:47 fib1618: anyway...anything else?
2015-09-03 17:56:06 thespookyone: It's a bummer, clothing made in the USA was SUCH higher quality!
2015-09-03 17:56:21 fib1618: well...here's the funny thing about that
2015-09-03 17:56:46 fib1618: the Congress started to raise tariffs and other taxes on ready to wear items because those in the US were complaining of unfair competition
2015-09-03 17:56:57 fib1618: and this pushed manufacturers back to the US
2015-09-03 17:56:59 fib1618: problem
2015-09-03 17:57:04 fib1618: there is no industry anymore
2015-09-03 17:57:15 fib1618: so they have to continue to buy their fabrics overseas
2015-09-03 17:57:21 fib1618: and ship them in anyway
2015-09-03 17:57:28 fib1618: and this got too high
2015-09-03 17:57:32 fib1618: so back they went to Asia
2015-09-03 17:57:41 fib1618: I'm telling you
2015-09-03 17:58:10 fib1618: the people in government evidently took too much acid in the 1960's because they have lost their ability to reason
2015-09-03 17:58:17 thespookyone: my British friends used to have me bring them US clothes, and shoes too. Our quality was tops
2015-09-03 17:58:31 fib1618: well, it still is
2015-09-03 17:58:36 fib1618: if you can find people to sew
2015-09-03 17:58:42 fib1618: and they don't teach that anymore in school
2015-09-03 17:59:03 fib1618: and those from other countries, legal or not, don't want to work either
2015-09-03 17:59:09 fib1618: it's a mess
2015-09-03 17:59:23 thespookyone: yep
2015-09-03 17:59:31 fib1618: OK..I'm sure that's more than you wanted to hear from me on the subject
2015-09-03 17:59:34 fib1618: so I'm going to take off
2015-09-03 17:59:45 fib1618: everyone have a super duper holiday weekend
2015-09-03 17:59:46 thespookyone: thx
2015-09-03 17:59:51 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-09-03 17:59:52 fib1618: good night
2015-09-03 17:59:53 thespookyone: you too


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