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Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-09-03 19:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-09-03 19:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-09-03 19:03:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: GD
2008-09-03 19:03:34 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Very well, thx.
2008-09-03 19:04:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Question
2008-09-03 19:04:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Two small change MCO days in a row on most indicies, What if any significance is this?
2008-09-03 19:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're coiling
2008-09-03 19:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: indecision...big move coming
2008-09-03 19:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when you get multiple days (3 or more), this same big move tends to create trends
2008-09-03 19:08:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, got the expected couple days of what?
2008-09-03 19:09:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Hard to tell
2008-09-03 19:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like a pause
2008-09-03 19:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yesterday kept everyone on their collective toes, didn't it?
2008-09-03 19:09:30 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: Breadth held up well
2008-09-03 19:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how do the hourly charts look, Lew?
2008-09-03 19:10:57 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: seem to be finishing the down move, then back up
2008-09-03 19:11:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I noticed nice SOB on the Compq over last couple weeks
2008-09-03 19:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would pretty much add up to the churning price, small point change idea
2008-09-03 19:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from what time TM?
2008-09-03 19:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will assume from the August top?
2008-09-03 19:15:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hi dave
2008-09-03 19:15:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: About 8/14 or so, was that August top
2008-09-03 19:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a pleasant good day to you Dave
2008-09-03 19:15:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i found the time and enrolled in dp
2008-09-03 19:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be TM
2008-09-03 19:16:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looking at mco's on financials - they printed highest level in 3 years
2008-09-03 19:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-03 19:16:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 5 and 10's up up and away too, what do you see in how this translates to price
2008-09-03 19:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow - +124!
2008-09-03 19:16:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that's what I'm saying
2008-09-03 19:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this time, readings like this are needed to break away from the default
2008-09-03 19:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time, we've been talking about that the lows made in the XLF we're going to be mighty important, so these higher levels of trend direction confirm this idea
2008-09-03 19:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be very difficult to see lower price lows in this sector for awhile
2008-09-03 19:18:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what does this data say to you near and short term on the xlf on price?
2008-09-03 19:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you have the page up by chance? - here's the link -
2008-09-03 19:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking back to the last two weeks, we already had new upside price objectives for this index of stocks to around the 27.50 level
2008-09-03 19:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this continuing expenditure of energy, fuel, thrust, confirms this same objective
2008-09-03 19:20:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this is expected in short order?
2008-09-03 19:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time is always a question
2008-09-03 19:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that breadth data is very slow and methodical
2008-09-03 19:21:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: I'm a rookie at this, but since i started coming here, never saw mco's over 100 on anything - don't know if that means anything
2008-09-03 19:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so measuring the short and intermediate degrees of this same trend is also within the area of patience...that is to say - more of a position trade than that of a quick in and out
2008-09-03 19:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...there's several angles on this
2008-09-03 19:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to keep in mind that the greater the composition of an index, the more important extremes dictate
2008-09-03 19:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example, the XAU is a basket of....what? 14 stocks?
2008-09-03 19:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so when we see MCO readings at levels above, let's say, 100, it wouldn't mean as much as, let's say, as the SPX, but the methodology involved still remains the same
2008-09-03 19:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that being that money is moving into (or out of) this or that area of investment at an accelerated rate 2008-09-03 19:23:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so xlf somewhere in between but still one sector
2008-09-03 19:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this same acceleration factor will need to be worked off before any future change in direction will be noted
2008-09-03 19:24:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: worked off in the form of price?
2008-09-03 19:25:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: matching the internals?
2008-09-03 19:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's correct
2008-09-03 19:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: goes back to Newton's laws of forward motion
2008-09-03 19:25:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what was it in the internals that gave you a price target of 27.50
2008-09-03 19:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a was the MCO giving these same projections
2008-09-03 19:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the MCO being a tool that measures the short term trend of the A/D line being measured
2008-09-03 19:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the stronger the trend, the more than likely event of price continuing to follow in this same direction
2008-09-03 19:26:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if mco hits at least 3 year highs, how does the target price get changed? do you have to meet the first objective first in order to get a second?
2008-09-03 19:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without this same forward motion to push it along, there can not be a trend in price
2008-09-03 19:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, that's the other problem here as we only have a limited amount of history with these sector charts
2008-09-03 19:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the rules of breadth leading price remain the same
2008-09-03 19:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only question then becomes: how robust will the price action equate with this same force being applied
2008-09-03 19:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all physics
2008-09-03 19:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why some of the best technical tools out there were developed by (rocket) scientists
2008-09-03 19:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without the pressure to move in one direction or the other, the object won't move
2008-09-03 19:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the object being, in this case, price
2008-09-03 19:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all starts with money...the fuel in which prices can work off of
2008-09-03 19:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more fuel applied, the more prices will move in this same directional application
2008-09-03 19:30:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that's the only sector that provided calming of nerves if your were long in last few days.....kind of ironic that they are the sector in the middle of this mess
2008-09-03 19:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we knew this already - we have been talking about this for the last 3 weeks
2008-09-03 19:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the only thing holding prices currently is how this fuel is applied in the intermediate term - the MCSUM
2008-09-03 19:31:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, I'm happy I'm in them, helps keep me sane to analyze rest of market
2008-09-03 19:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money will tell you - all of us - what to do
2008-09-03 19:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is no emotion here - no media circus to crawl through - no "experts" to contend with
2008-09-03 19:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money is the very basis of price pattern direction - no money...the market sags in its default
2008-09-03 19:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with money moving into these same stocks, sectors, indexes, it provides the buoyancy to absorb selling waves and keep right on going
2008-09-03 19:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trend of market is very important
2008-09-03 19:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: choppy periods generally don't make you much in the way of money, and if it does, it's hard fought
2008-09-03 19:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so what we attempt to do in here is first to understand the mechanism to make prices move in one direction or the other, and more importantly, understand the times in which this same information provides enough merit to look at other areas while waiting for better configurations to appear
2008-09-03 19:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we want to make it easy on ourselves, not a chore
2008-09-03 19:36:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: many large cap stocks and major market index look like they are putting in a B down from recent high and are all at fib retracements that are at areas where B's go to..........C next?
2008-09-03 19:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...what does money say?
2008-09-03 19:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that Elliott's foundation is based on money flow and simple bar charting techniques
2008-09-03 19:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all Elliott does is to apply a label to this same information
2008-09-03 19:37:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: imo, money says we moving on up in short order
2008-09-03 19:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...then you should apply your count to what the internals tell you
2008-09-03 19:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the beauty of Elliott is that there are specific guidelines to help you separate impulsive from corrective patterns - much of which is based on the direction of the A/D line
2008-09-03 19:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the rest is based on mass psychology that accompanies this same direction in the A/D line
2008-09-03 19:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...taking the XLF for example
2008-09-03 19:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we know two things from Elliott
2008-09-03 19:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first is that 5th waves diverge with 3rd waves and that C waves diverge with wave A
2008-09-03 19:39:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right
2008-09-03 19:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the very notion that the trend of the XLF A/D line, as represented by the XLF breadth MCO, is at 3 year highs makes the count very unlikely as wave C of ANY labeled count
2008-09-03 19:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it MUST be a 3rd wave in development
2008-09-03 19:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this case, with the price action still not breaking out in this MCO direction, we also know that with breadth leading price, it's only a matter of time before we see catch up occur
2008-09-03 19:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since this is a 3rd wave, there will be a 4th wave, and then a 5th wave
2008-09-03 19:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...the psychology
2008-09-03 19:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2nd waves are accompanied by the idea that "nothing has changed", in fact, it's worse than before
2008-09-03 19:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at higher price levels than the actual bottom
2008-09-03 19:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why 3rd waves are known as "recognition waves" where these same ideas are slowly eroded away to the point in which they are forgotten
2008-09-03 19:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 4th waves "come out of the blue" and those who were wrong will come back and say - "see, I told you so!"
2008-09-03 19:43:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that psychology can translate to spx and dow and comp at this time, so you're saying that we are in possible wave 2 down now?
2008-09-03 19:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I"m just sharing the psychology
2008-09-03 19:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and 5th waves is when everyone throws in the towel, where everyone who was on the wrong side decides they were wrong (at least temporary) and push in with everything they have
2008-09-03 19:44:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: how does this translate into time frame? you can always go further out and see the count in the more macro time frame
2008-09-03 19:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to a point in which not only is higher prices a given, but even higher and higher prices are looked for (the latest example of this was with Oil)
2008-09-03 19:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time frames are always difficult and why many analysts get tripped
2008-09-03 19:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all we want to know is direction, and once this direction is known, looking for situations that would call this same direction into question
2008-09-03 19:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: divergent breadth and momentum, for example
2008-09-03 19:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway, what we do know right now is that it won't be the financial sector that will take the blunt of the reasons why the SPX moves lower now
2008-09-03 19:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's take a look around
2008-09-03 19:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the CO NYSE breadth MCO today matching the one from yesterday
2008-09-03 19:51:55 [Message] doc -> Main Room: price wise, NYA dropped back into the wedge
2008-09-03 19:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there's a bit of indecision here in the ranks
2008-09-03 19:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it did Doc
2008-09-03 19:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: false start
2008-09-03 19:52:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats another thing, the nya price action has been awful, but advancers leading decliners both days
2008-09-03 19:52:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: and now the NYMO stoch is getting a bit after last weeks new inflow of money taking the NYMO to +60 and above the Aug highs, we've dropped half-way down to +30s. Is there anyway to know if the next technical expectation is a breakout new NYMO high or a trip down to or towards the zero line?
2008-09-03 19:57:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would we expect the 0 line on mcsum's to provide resistance?
2008-09-03 19:57:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: the MCO components are in a favorable pattern, but it would be unrealistic to believe that after an extreme is provided in the MCO that a more extreme reading would be seen
2008-09-03 19:58:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so the next move in the same direction would create divergence
2008-09-03 19:58:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything extraordinary, then, would be more informative
2008-09-03 19:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely, yes
2008-09-03 19:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it may only be only part 1 of this same divergence
2008-09-03 19:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...back to Newton
2008-09-03 19:59:35 [Message] doc -> Main Room: we had talked last week that if NYMO indeed took out the July highs, that created new price targets
2008-09-03 19:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an object stays in motion until an opposite force either slows it down or stops its forward progress
2008-09-03 20:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we generally get momentum moves while the money sloshing around starts to slow or reverse, compared to the original "thrust"
2008-09-03 20:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Elliott - third waves are "wonders to behold" because this is where you get your best extremes in both breadth and volume
2008-09-03 20:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fifth waves don't even come close to this same extreme and divergence is created
2008-09-03 20:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: third waves are where all of the willing participants move into (or out of), with the unwilling are what you get with wave 5
2008-09-03 20:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, to have any MCO move above + or - 100 is quite a feat because of the math involved and that you are measuring two different time periods and averaging out the results
2008-09-03 20:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the XLF MCO being able to have only a few days below its zero line over the last two months, the MATH says that the odds of it moving to even higher levels is not reasonable
2008-09-03 20:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the MCO moving to 3 year highs, this just adds fuel to an already burning inferno
2008-09-03 20:09:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in the respect of internals, how do you determine how far in advance the breadth is leading price
2008-09-03 20:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to say for you can't measure human fickleness
2008-09-03 20:10:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what can you look at that will tell you if its lagging by a week, running together, or a month?
2008-09-03 20:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: generally speaking, breadth leads price by about 2 or 3 days
2008-09-03 20:11:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ty
2008-09-03 20:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like touching a warm may not feel it at first, but if you continue to put you hand on it, it will burn...causing a reaction, a direction, an impulse
2008-09-03 20:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's stick with the XLF data for one more moment
2008-09-03 20:12:24 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Today's reading for the XLF breadth MCO is the highest for the data available going back about 3 years though there have been 4 other instances of 100+ reading during that time. The last two such readings concluded "bear market" rallies with XLF moving sharply lower thereafter, once in Oct 2007 and again in Feb 2008
2008-09-03 20:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...and what was the position of the MCSUM during those times Doc?
2008-09-03 20:13:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: +300 and -300
2008-09-03 20:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the structure?
2008-09-03 20:13:51 [Message] doc -> Main Room: declining tops
2008-09-03 20:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now?
2008-09-03 20:14:12 [Message] doc -> Main Room: new highs
2008-09-03 20:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything has to be taken in its proper context
2008-09-03 20:14:54 [Message] doc -> Main Room: also the mcsum DTL has been broken up
2008-09-03 20:14:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: mcsum on xlf has taken out declining tops and last two swing highs
2008-09-03 20:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having a series of declining tops, for example, with high extremes like those before, actually suggest short covering than any NEW money moving into this sector
2008-09-03 20:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the MCSUM position, and its structure, are an important consideration
2008-09-03 20:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a price pattern structure can NOT trend without both of these time period elements complimenting each other
2008-09-03 20:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more important piece in this larger wheel that needs to be addressed
2008-09-03 20:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's knowing exactly the position of the A/D line itself
2008-09-03 20:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do know is this
2008-09-03 20:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO measures how quickly the 19 day EMA is moving to or towards the 39 day EMA
2008-09-03 20:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right's moving very fast, which means that the A/D line is moving higher
2008-09-03 20:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM tells you when the 19 day EMA crosses either above or below the 39 day EMA with the zero line approximately where these two EMA's cross
2008-09-03 20:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so without even looking at the A/D line of the XLF, we know that even though money is moving into this sector, we are still not in a bullish configuration on the A/D chart itself
2008-09-03 20:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and without this same A/D chart, we don't exactly know where the longer term 200 day EMA is in this relationship
2008-09-03 20:22:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b/c mcsum is below zero?
2008-09-03 20:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the zero line of the MCSUM is your crossover point of the 19 and 39 day EMA's
2008-09-03 20:23:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what type of resistance is expected at this level?
2008-09-03 20:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be the same thing (the A/D lines) position as it would be with price
2008-09-03 20:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you get hesitation, support, or resistance when two EMA's touch?
2008-09-03 20:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the answer, of course, is magically...yes
2008-09-03 20:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just another way of technically looking at the flow of money using the same basic tools you would use to decide a buy or sell point on a price chart
2008-09-03 20:25:50 [Message] doc -> Main Room:
2008-09-03 20:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the time element is always a question
2008-09-03 20:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: btw...this is a great site for this information...and it's free
2008-09-03 20:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...try not to let this kind of thing overwhelm you
2008-09-03 20:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all you're doing here is establishing direction, and the MCSUM's give you an inside look at whether this same direction is able to be continued
2008-09-03 20:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why...
2008-09-03 20:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the MCSUM either tops, or bottoms, it doesn't necessarily means a like response in the price action
2008-09-03 20:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all depends on where the A/D action is in relation to its EMA's
2008-09-03 20:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving above them...bullish - moving below them...bearish
2008-09-03 20:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at gold stocks
2008-09-03 20:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold made a March top
2008-09-03 20:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: things "looked" corrective, then something happened internally
2008-09-03 20:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the PM's breaking support in April
2008-09-03 20:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...Elliott wise, bigger picture, this would be expected as the broad base of what makes up 3rd waves would change during the final climactic phase
2008-09-03 20:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then the XAU A/D line broke support on 7/11, and a week later, down we went
2008-09-03 20:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the timing was questionable, but breadth lead the market lower
2008-09-03 20:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: currently, gold found support at the 4th wave of one lesser degree
2008-09-03 20:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this last low made is important for the longer term bullish count
2008-09-03 20:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this week the Dollar went to higher highs on Tuesday, not confirmed by lower lows in Gold
2008-09-03 20:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermarket divergence is very powerful, so this would suggest that the dollar is topping now, and gold is about to rally hard
2008-09-03 20:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could change tomorrow for we don't have follow through confirmation as yet, but it's something to watch for
2008-09-03 20:38:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what would be confirmation
2008-09-03 20:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for gold...overhead resistance held on its first rally attempt at the 845-850 level
2008-09-03 20:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold would need to clear the 860 level to all but confirm a low for now, and it would counted as a simple A-B-C structure from the March highs
2008-09-03 20:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: personally, although gold rallied some $90 an ounce, I wasn't so happy with the choppiness of the advance
2008-09-03 20:39:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, if the world is experiences a recession, japan, Europe, and the u.s., would gold be looked at as a safe haven as an alternative to those countries currencies?
2008-09-03 20:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides that...
2008-09-03 20:39:26 [Message] doc -> Main Room: 78-91 area used to be support for the dollar, should now be resistance
2008-09-03 20:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold tends to make rounded bottoms and spike tops...
2008-09-03 20:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I guess that all depends on the data one would use to measure the fundamental term "recession"
2008-09-03 20:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here in the US...LEI says yes....GDP says no (for example)
2008-09-03 20:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but yes, we are a global community
2008-09-03 20:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all that really matters is what money perceives the fundamentals are
2008-09-03 20:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: undervaluation...over valuation...this kind of thing
2008-09-03 20:43:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: curious about your thoughts on the nasdaq cup and handle/ rounded bottom formation based through today's data
2008-09-03 20:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the A/D line is the VERY BEST tool out there to understand the amount of money that's available for investment
2008-09-03 20:44:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would you be accumulating gold stocks?
2008-09-03 20:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't accumulate in anything until there is sufficient amount of money to maintain a direction
2008-09-03 20:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I stopped playing hero long ago
2008-09-03 20:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Doc
2008-09-03 20:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "handle" was broken, the rounding bottom has not
2008-09-03 20:46:23 [Message] doc -> Main Room: by the reversal yesterday
2008-09-03 20:46:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the term "cup and handle" was created from a pattern (the rounding bottom) that has been around since trading began
2008-09-03 20:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we look at the MCO
2008-09-03 20:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we seem to be diverging here
2008-09-03 20:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very nicely, I might add
2008-09-03 20:47:50 [Message] doc -> Main Room: this is what I was seeing
2008-09-03 20:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, we put "terms of endearment" on the back burner
2008-09-03 20:48:25 [Message] doc -> Main Room: ?
2008-09-03 20:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and wait to see whether this lack of selling, with lower prices, actually creates the platform for prices to turn around or not
2008-09-03 20:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "terms of endearment" = rounding bottoms, cup and handles, etc.
2008-09-03 20:49:18 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-09-03 20:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price pattern structures only work out if money flow is in agreement
2008-09-03 20:49:50 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: Q&A: simply stated? breadth leads price in 2-3 days on the mco?
2008-09-03 20:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's so important to look at daily volume patterns with these same structures
2008-09-03 20:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: generally, yes
2008-09-03 20:50:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wow that divergence on the compq is massive
2008-09-03 20:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be one day
2008-09-03 20:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be delayed by something in which the market is waiting for
2008-09-03 20:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unemployment data, PPI data, a FED statement, this kind of thing
2008-09-03 20:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're watching money take a position
2008-09-03 20:51:02 [Message] doc -> Main Room: seems like the selling has been merchandising with most of the selling on the highest weighted components of the index with the overall breadth still holding up
2008-09-03 20:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but even better
2008-09-03 20:51:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, apple, rimm, goog, bidu
2008-09-03 20:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're watching it on a trend basis
2008-09-03 20:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go...
2008-09-03 20:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is how the market sets you up
2008-09-03 20:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the majority only look at the bottom line, not what made up this same bottom line
2008-09-03 20:52:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: breadth positive again today on nas, advancers vs. decliners, if you looked at it, you never would have guessed how much the nas was actually down
2008-09-03 20:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-09-03 20:52:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 2nd or 3rd day in a row
2008-09-03 20:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all perspective...knowing what really counts
2008-09-03 20:52:39 [Message] doc -> Main Room: merchandising while running the stops
2008-09-03 20:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the bigger problems these days is with volume data
2008-09-03 20:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the advent of electronic trading, I keep seeing all sorts of inconsistencies in the plurality
2008-09-03 20:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some trades going through computers...others on the floor of the exchange
2008-09-03 20:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this makes it difficult to fully understand what may be going on under the surface
2008-09-03 20:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why I have shyed away from this same data (especially with the McClellan's)
2008-09-03 20:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this will eventually remedy itself
2008-09-03 20:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the breadth side of things remain consistent
2008-09-03 20:54:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: based on the ndx, we need to rally starting tomorrow, or the divergence is gone
2008-09-03 20:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...a small point change going into Friday
2008-09-03 20:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we know this..
2008-09-03 20:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interest rates continue to sneak lower
2008-09-03 20:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if anyone has been noticing, these same interest rates have been moving lower since commodities topped in July
2008-09-03 20:55:26 [Message] doc -> Main Room: ndx is very close to making a lower mco low
2008-09-03 20:55:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: technicals show rally going to occur now, just like it did when i said it a few classes ago
2008-09-03 20:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing again how money flows through the different asset classes
2008-09-03 20:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so be it
2008-09-03 20:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO's are strong
2008-09-03 20:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: had a bit of a hic up
2008-09-03 20:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then plowed ahead last week
2008-09-03 20:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which re-enforced the eventual direction
2008-09-03 20:56:35 [Message] doc -> Main Room: noticed CEF finally started moving up last week
2008-09-03 20:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bit, not much to write home about, but it's hanging in there (by its fingernails)
2008-09-03 20:57:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: psychologically, i think this market will rally more than most think, convert bears to bulls and then roll over, but not until it goes high enough, fast enough to convert the bears
2008-09-03 20:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is the most important A/D chart
2008-09-03 20:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe Dave
2008-09-03 20:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what the bulls want to see is a slow, methodical move higher - they don't want to see anything too far, too fast
2008-09-03 20:57:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: technicals do not show a slow methodical advance happening
2008-09-03 20:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that could be too
2008-09-03 20:58:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this rally statement is under the preface that we will make new lows
2008-09-03 20:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, sentiment is still in a position to really show an equal and opposite occurrence
2008-09-03 20:58:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a couple of really hard up days ought to do the trick and that's what technicals are saying to me
2008-09-03 20:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...we haven't yet fully confirmed that the 9 month low is behind us as yet, no less, a zero line test is indicated
2008-09-03 20:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I am going to Vegas next week, so a sharp move lower from here wouldn't be too surprising
2008-09-03 20:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, whatever does occur, the internals are in much better shape than they have been since the summer lows
2008-09-03 21:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have you ever seen my Vegas chart Dave?
2008-09-03 21:00:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it makes sense, the mco's have run up massive from there lows, so when we make new lows, most likely to occur with divergence
2008-09-03 21:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me see if I can find it
2008-09-03 21:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to 2003 -$SPX&p=D&st=2003-01-01&i=p62486246857&a=78467465&r=4755
2008-09-03 21:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I haven't updated it since the spring, but you get the idea
2008-09-03 21:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interesting things tend to happen when I'm in Vegas
2008-09-03 21:02:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: most often the beginning of a rally
2008-09-03 21:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes a decline too...I was there in September of 1998, and I was there in mid October 1987
2008-09-03 21:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was there in October of 1989, and I was there at the beginning of the up leg in 1995
2008-09-03 21:03:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, come clean, you go to vegas to pull the lever, and you know im not taking about the slot machine, are you the "rain maker"? you go to vegas when the lever needs to be pulled
2008-09-03 21:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm....I'll never tell...
2008-09-03 21:04:23 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: feel free to pull the lever-at least on my part
2008-09-03 21:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anyway...I've had a bit too much diarrhea of the mouth tonight...
2008-09-03 21:05:04 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Can I ask an important question that has been bugging me? Nearly all of the cumulative AD lines for the indexes that we go through each chat show levels now that are BELOW that which they were at the March lows, even with most indexes at or above these price levels. That gives me caution. Any comments on that?
2008-09-03 21:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's go directly to the volume oscillators and then the TRIN
2008-09-03 21:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Doc...we have work to do
2008-09-03 21:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one in this room said it was going to be easy
2008-09-03 21:06:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it's the slow methodical work, that we won't do (imo)
2008-09-03 21:06:08 [Message] doc -> Main Room: take a look at the NDX, up 200 points from the march lows and its AD line is below that in March
2008-09-03 21:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-03 21:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...secondary stocks are a bummer, aren't they?
2008-09-03 21:07:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Isn't this a serious divergence at this point?
2008-09-03 21:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile the price pattern of the NDX continues to move into the apex of a large triangle
2008-09-03 21:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe for the NDX, yes
2008-09-03 21:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but COMPQ A/D line has been moving lower and lower from its inception
2008-09-03 21:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, technically, all of these stocks are always going to be in a bear market
2008-09-03 21:08:29 [Message] doc -> Main Room: i know that for the nasdaq, but what about the top 100
2008-09-03 21:08:55 [Message] doc -> Main Room: especially with re-balancing out the losers
2008-09-03 21:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I don't know for sure...maybe Randy will read this and he may have something to show
2008-09-03 21:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I learned about 10 years ago that playing the NASDAQ is like playing options
2008-09-03 21:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thrilling...but deadly
2008-09-03 21:09:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: kinda like vegas
2008-09-03 21:09:51 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: NYC (nyse comp ETF) looks the same actually
2008-09-03 21:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir
2008-09-03 21:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it does...the A/D lines are all trending lower
2008-09-03 21:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when you have the kind of capitulation as we had this year, it's unlikely that there's going to be a quick liking to this area of investment anytime soon
2008-09-03 21:11:58 [Message] doc -> Main Room: took a 10000 foot look and you are right, Dave. NDX AD line is now back where it was at the beginning of the 2003 rally
2008-09-03 21:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after took over 6 months before traders started trading the market after the accounting scandals of 2002
2008-09-03 21:12:29 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Can't use it for divergence, same thing as the nasdaq
2008-09-03 21:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when things look its worse, people are not quick to return (especially after being burned)
2008-09-03 21:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at all of the die hard bears who decided to switch to the bull side in early 2007?
2008-09-03 21:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now...these same folks were burned (again)
2008-09-03 21:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but NOW they're right
2008-09-03 21:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the banking sector
2008-09-03 21:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they HAVE TO BE right
2008-09-03 21:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, they've been "right" for 60 years!
2008-09-03 21:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (being cheeky here - but hopefully you catch my drift)
2008-09-03 21:14:36 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: well "they" usually get the same thing..and it's not paid
2008-09-03 21:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are neutral
2008-09-03 21:15:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they are always right, but timing usually
2008-09-03 21:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are "overbought"
2008-09-03 21:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all depends on how you look at the world, who you listen to, and how this directly relates to you bank account
2008-09-03 21:15:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: stvo's overbought?
2008-09-03 21:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir
2008-09-03 21:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX is neutral
2008-09-03 21:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's are neutral
2008-09-03 21:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.11
2008-09-03 21:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.02
2008-09-03 21:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.84
2008-09-03 21:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.24
2008-09-03 21:19:29 [Message] doc -> Main Room: If nasdaq doesn't rally hard tomorrow, I think we are in trouble. Look at the 4 day arms--1.80
2008-09-03 21:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: highly "oversold"
2008-09-03 21:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s putting in a solid bottom here
2008-09-03 21:20:02 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: agreed
2008-09-03 21:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would tend to agree with your idea of the few leading the way
2008-09-03 21:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the MCO's - the NASDAQ is still above its zero line
2008-09-03 21:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Open 10 is way overdone
2008-09-03 21:20:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we going to fly.........kinda like dave in vegas
2008-09-03 21:20:52 [Message] doc -> Main Room: well, with this degree of oversoldness, shouldn't we rally at this point?
2008-09-03 21:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at all of the TRINS on the NASDAQ
2008-09-03 21:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ALL of them are now "oversold", but can get even more so considering the NYSE data
2008-09-03 21:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would expect it will only take one strike of a match and you'll probably see a 50 point up day
2008-09-03 21:21:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wow fib, every time at this level, it lead to a big up move
2008-09-03 21:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir
2008-09-03 21:21:56 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: sweet!-Im in
2008-09-03 21:22:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: me too
2008-09-03 21:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and meanwhile...the price pattern is hanging in there
2008-09-03 21:22:15 [Message] doc -> Main Room: you are looking at the 4day?
2008-09-03 21:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful...don't get too arrogant, let the market lead the way, the MCSUM's still have work to do
2008-09-03 21:22:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: great minds lew, great minds, maybe thats we talk all day
2008-09-03 21:22:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-03 21:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at all of them Doc
2008-09-03 21:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 21 day and 55 day
2008-09-03 21:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for others
2008-09-03 21:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it this way
2008-09-03 21:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what this information is akin to being on the end of a diving board and pumping the board to a point in which, once launched, your height off the board will be quite high
2008-09-03 21:24:34 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: breadth has held up very well, considering the drop, I feel-breadth leads price
2008-09-03 21:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only question the market ready to lift off the board?
2008-09-03 21:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can wait until Friday
2008-09-03 21:25:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, with jobs
2008-09-03 21:25:34 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Jobs report Friday, could it go either way?
2008-09-03 21:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, a good excuse makes the media's day
2008-09-03 21:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't seem to matter
2008-09-03 21:26:02 [Message] Lew -> Main Room: plenty available tomorrow, as well
2008-09-03 21:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will probably be taken good no matter
2008-09-03 21:26:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: doc, the diving board is being held down with 8000 pound lead weights, somebody going to cut the rope
2008-09-03 21:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what has been happening over the last year or so is that these market moves have tended to happen the day BEFORE the data
2008-09-03 21:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or the board could break Dave
2008-09-03 21:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we must always look at both sides of an equation
2008-09-03 21:27:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it will either be good news and the market has bottomed, or it will be bad news being bought and they'll say the bottom is in, they are buying bad news
2008-09-03 21:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a break of the board here being very bearish
2008-09-03 21:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the ODDS of this happening are less than...oh...20%
2008-09-03 21:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many times have you seen the market sell off on data of late and then firm during the day over the last 3 weeks?
2008-09-03 21:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.39
2008-09-03 21:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.16
2008-09-03 21:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s the bulls to lose right now
2008-09-03 21:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and going back to last week, with the MCO's making higher highs
2008-09-03 21:29:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: trin and open 10 over sold?
2008-09-03 21:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this suggested that we should have about 2 weeks worth of rally, but the inverted ledge on the MCSUM suggested a possible turn after Labor Day
2008-09-03 21:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes Dave - the classic range for the TRIN data is 1.00 or higher is "oversold" - .80 or lower is "overbought"
2008-09-03 21:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see
2008-09-03 21:31:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-09-03 21:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not the's the quality
2008-09-03 21:31:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: when's next class? you hosting a chat from vegas?
2008-09-03 21:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big fast moves are always disappointing to me
2008-09-03 21:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...I'm off all of next week
2008-09-03 21:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: resume on 9/16, and we should be back to two days a week
2008-09-03 21:32:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: very nice, have a great time and much success while there
2008-09-03 21:32:46 [Message] doc -> Main Room: have a safe trip
2008-09-03 21:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm hoping...
2008-09-03 21:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: business really picked up today, but one day doesn't make a trend
2008-09-03 21:33:01 [Message] doc -> Main Room: some well deserved R & R
2008-09-03 21:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll try and do that too
2008-09-03 21:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but standing on your feet for 9 hours isn't my way of relaxing
2008-09-03 21:33:39 [Message] doc -> Main Room: true
2008-09-03 21:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm out of here
2008-09-03 21:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great week
2008-09-03 21:34:05 [Message] doc -> Main Room: take care and be good
2008-09-03 21:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on 9/16
2008-09-03 21:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-09-03 21:34:37 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: cheers

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