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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,454
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-30 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-30 16:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-30 16:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-09-30 16:03:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Market seems unstable
2014-09-30 16:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...there is a lot of pushing and pulling going on right now
2014-09-30 16:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have the large caps keeping things buoyant and trying their best from letting the small and mid caps get away from them
2014-09-30 16:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2014-09-30 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as traders continue to short and buy puts like we've already had a 10% decline
2014-09-30 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the market is just going to chop with a sentiment floor below it
2014-09-30 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears just won't let things unwind
2014-09-30 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they keep trying to jump on a train that's going nowhere fast
2014-09-30 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew that this would be a choppy period
2014-09-30 16:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so it goes
2014-09-30 16:06:22 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: what was the isee number tonight?
2014-09-30 16:06:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure..
2014-09-30 16:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really want to know?
2014-09-30 16:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-30 16:06:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-09-30 16:06:45 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: just curious  [smile]
2014-09-30 16:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 72
2014-09-30 16:06:55 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thx
2014-09-30 16:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing
2014-09-30 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think in the last 10 days that the ISEE has been above 90 2 or 3 times
2014-09-30 16:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-09-30 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check it real fast
2014-09-30 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-09-30 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2014-09-30 16:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a new Zweig Breadth Thrust advisory was triggered on Friday
2014-09-30 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep, 3 times in 10 days
2014-09-30 16:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from 9/16, in order
2014-09-30 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 82, 123, 134, 81, 59, 73, 103, 69, 82, 90 ,72
2014-09-30 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2014-09-30 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-09-30 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think the 8 day MA is at all time lows now
2014-09-30 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-30 16:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in theory
2014-09-30 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this correction is done
2014-09-30 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market should rally SHARPLY
2014-09-30 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also fit seasonality
2014-09-30 16:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Presidential Cycle
2014-09-30 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we trade and wait
2014-09-30 16:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's see what the charts have to say tonight
2014-09-30 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving above the reaction lows of last Thursday
2014-09-30 16:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continues to pull back after moving to this higher high
2014-09-30 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we can allow a one or two day resting period after pushing things above a reaction high
2014-09-30 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the buyers really need to step up here and now or this thing is going to have to back and fill internally and take out last Thursday's low point in the process
2014-09-30 16:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2014-09-30 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the pattern remains under the influence of a declining tops line
2014-09-30 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this line of resistance is broken
2014-09-30 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers remain in control on a short term trending basis
2014-09-30 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-09-30 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it moved below its August lows today
2014-09-30 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the intermediate trend continues to be decisively down
2014-09-30 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA itself
2014-09-30 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we had a bearish crossover of the 20 day EMA over the 50 day EMA
2014-09-30 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if plotted on a MCSUM
2014-09-30 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean that we have moved down and through the zero line today
2014-09-30 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at today's price bar
2014-09-30 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a bearish reversal pattern
2014-09-30 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point, we should see lower prices in the NYA on Wednesday
2014-09-30 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, BTW, we get our first look at jobs with ADP
2014-09-30 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slapping a 200 day EMA on the NYA chart
2014-09-30 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it now intersects EXACTLY at the previous price lows of August
2014-09-30 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any further break in the MCO to lower lows
2014-09-30 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would then instruct us that this price zone will not be able to hold prices in check
2014-09-30 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would set off the double top formation
2014-09-30 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the downside target of 8900
2014-09-30 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an important couple of days coming up
2014-09-30 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-09-30 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see it had small change of -5 today
2014-09-30 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough for a classic "small point change" indication
2014-09-30 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is enough to suggest that we continue to see a lot of tension on the tape right now
2014-09-30 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM now approaching important support at the -250 level
2014-09-30 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break of this level would highly suggest that the rest of October is likely to be a bearish one for the market
2014-09-30 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our goal of looking for a tradable bottom sometime around Election Day
2014-09-30 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the first Tuesday in November - 11/7
2014-09-30 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor on the NYSE MCO
2014-09-30 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll note that the downside angle of the last 2 days is hugging this MCO's declining tops line
2014-09-30 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buyers are looking for "something" to break the back of the sellers right now
2014-09-30 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whether they get what they're looking for or not remains to be seen
2014-09-30 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2014-09-30 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will probably be known by the time we meet up again on Thursday
2014-09-30 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-09-30 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're seeing the same attempt by the bulls to construct a complex bottoming formation
2014-09-30 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the pattern finding recent resistance at its declining tops line
2014-09-30 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-09-30 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM settled today right at its rising bottoms line connecting the May and August low points
2014-09-30 16:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the longer, and therefore, the stronger line of trend influence is with the March and July tops
2014-09-30 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for now is that this current line of support is likely to be broken as soon as tomorrow
2014-09-30 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ Composite Index itself
2014-09-30 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's be meandering between its 20 day and 50 EMA's over the last week
2014-09-30 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed right on its 50 day EMA today
2014-09-30 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check that
2014-09-30 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it actually closed below it by 2 points
2014-09-30 16:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we pointed to earlier
2014-09-30 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers need to step up here and NOW or things will get away from them for a while
2014-09-30 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX continues to be in corrective mode right now
2014-09-30 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with only the 10% component below its zero line
2014-09-30 16:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCSUM is still above its +500 level
2014-09-30 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind however
2014-09-30 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any move down and through the +500 level
2014-09-30 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will tend to shake things up for this basket of stocks
2014-09-30 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like the Space Shuttle hitting the atmosphere on re-entry
2014-09-30 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we do have a small point change on the NDX breadth MCO tonight
2014-09-30 16:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with prices doing their best in holding snapback support at where the old price highs were back in July
2014-09-30 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gee...
2014-09-30 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting the feeling here
2014-09-30 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there is some sort of cycle influence is in play right now
2014-09-30 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's keeping things from moving higher
2014-09-30 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the mix of internal data we continue to work with
2014-09-30 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not seeing the natural process of a cycle nesting taking place
2014-09-30 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, this kind of thing tends to end badly
2014-09-30 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the heavier influence of the nesting itself takes no prisoners
2014-09-30 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cycles are funny
2014-09-30 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they can be those in which prices move down an IN TO
2014-09-30 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while others can be times in which prices move up and OUT OF
2014-09-30 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we continue to deal with a two faced market
2014-09-30 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have both
2014-09-30 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all the while
2014-09-30 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: frustrate the majority
2014-09-30 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where they throw in the towel and then miss the move that results from such indecision points
2014-09-30 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted that the +500 level on the NDX breadth MCSUM is about where the rising bottoms line intersects the pattern
2014-09-30 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: funny how all this works together, huh?
2014-09-30 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM closed today with a +242 reading
2014-09-30 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is right at the natural area of support at the +250 level
2014-09-30 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCO still "oversold" with a -67 reading
2014-09-30 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could look for a snapback to the MCO zero line to support the +250 area in the MCSUM
2014-09-30 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if this doesn't happen
2014-09-30 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that MCSUM zero line support is going to save the day either
2014-09-30 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX MCO/Component data continues to support a corrective sequence
2014-09-30 16:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making it difficult for the sellers to mount up much in the direction of their bias
2014-09-30 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the OEX breadth MCSUM still well above the +500 level
2014-09-30 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will continue to be difficult for the sellers to mount up much more than a 1 or 2 day event
2014-09-30 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before seeing it retrace quickly
2014-09-30 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like we've seen over the last week
2014-09-30 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-09-30 16:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at a chart of the OEX
2014-09-30 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and plot a 20 and 50 day EMA
2014-09-30 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see the price action move within the two EMA's
2014-09-30 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX already below its 50 day EMA...
2014-09-30 16:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...?
2014-09-30 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-09-30 16:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM is at a lower/weaker level than the OEX breadth MCSUM
2014-09-30 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope..you don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that one
2014-09-30 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Dow Industrials and the Transports are playing EMA tag with their 20 and 50 day periods right now
2014-09-30 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it "range bound" if you like [smile]
2014-09-30 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as the MCO and MCSUM's have been suggesting for 3 weeks now
2014-09-30 16:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bad day on Wednesday would also push the MID breadth MCSUM to a lower low
2014-09-30 16:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current expansion of posts suggesting that it's going to take the better part of 2-3 days before the buyers will be able to halt this downside progression
2014-09-30 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of problems here for the bulls
2014-09-30 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's been masked by continued high liquidity levels in the majors
2014-09-30 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't like the pattern at all on the SML breadth MCO
2014-09-30 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not a good place for this to be happening either with the current position of the SML breadth MCSUM now challenging its August lows at the -500 level
2014-09-30 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're setting up for a near term "flush" there
2014-09-30 16:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM has moved down and through its -250 level today
2014-09-30 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now at its lowest point since the buy signal lows of November 2012
2014-09-30 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking still at the one year price pattern chart of the Wilshire 5000
2014-09-30 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can now start to see a broad rounding top formation in progress
2014-09-30 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the highs of early September the peak of this "dome"
2014-09-30 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-30 16:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of joy at Wall and Broad tonight
2014-09-30 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the internals coming into very important levels of support that will need to hold or we could be looking at a slip and slide affair for a couple of weeks
2014-09-30 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're looking for a buy point here
2014-09-30 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you don't want to see is lower MCO lows
2014-09-30 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2014-09-30 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can give a sigh of relief if the MCO is able to move above mid September highs in the next day or so
2014-09-30 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would then be the indication that the worse would be over
2014-09-30 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the beginning of constructing a foundational low is underway
2014-09-30 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2014-09-30 16:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoops
2014-09-30 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM moved down and through the zero line today
2014-09-30 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the sellers now have "real control" on the direction of the price pattern
2014-09-30 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering that
2014-09-30 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the lake of liquidity that's measured by breadth
2014-09-30 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the cumulative volume that actually steers the boat on the lake
2014-09-30 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this case
2014-09-30 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will allow prices to break support
2014-09-30 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're going to test our downside target of the price lows of August in the NYA very soon
2014-09-30 16:56:56 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Hey Dave. Was just reading through from the top and saw your line on cycles - just thought of mentioning. Doc had a post in the forum. Hurst 40 week low expected around this time.
2014-09-30 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be consistent
2014-09-30 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the reminder on that
2014-09-30 16:57:22 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: But I wouldn't be surprised to see a little extension here...next week maybe
2014-09-30 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing with cycles
2014-09-30 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer the time period
2014-09-30 16:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more of a window we should allow for the nesting
2014-09-30 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it arrives ahead of schedule
2014-09-30 16:57:59 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Totally agree
2014-09-30 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's bullish
2014-09-30 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it arrives late
2014-09-30 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's bearish
2014-09-30 16:58:09 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes
2014-09-30 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with a 40 week cycle
2014-09-30 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would give a window of +/- 2 weeks
2014-09-30 16:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which
2014-09-30 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's ideally due now
2014-09-30 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could extend into mid October and OPEX
2014-09-30 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid October...
2014-09-30 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gives you the willies, huh?
2014-09-30 16:59:11 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes it could.
2014-09-30 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the input
2014-09-30 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM settled today on its rising bottoms line connecting the May and August lows
2014-09-30 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2014-09-30 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a +505 reading today
2014-09-30 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls should be hopeful of support here
2014-09-30 17:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-09-30 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break would be that of a double technical support
2014-09-30 17:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've seen what happens when two levels of support or resistance are taken out
2014-09-30 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually with a vengeance
2014-09-30 17:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting the feeling
2014-09-30 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the jobs numbers might be worse than expected on Friday
2014-09-30 17:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the buyers may revolt here having waited patiently for support
2014-09-30 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, would drive interest rates sharply lower
2014-09-30 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that would take care of our expected forecast over the last 3 weeks
2014-09-30 17:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks lower
2014-09-30 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bonds higher
2014-09-30 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold collapsing
2014-09-30 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems the market stars are aligned for something important to happen here
2014-09-30 17:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we're positioned correctly for it
2014-09-30 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO moved slightly higher today
2014-09-30 17:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains below last weeks high point
2014-09-30 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2014-09-30 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it settled today right at its declining tops line
2014-09-30 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: imagine that! [smile]
2014-09-30 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM is also a day away from moving down and through its +500 level
2014-09-30 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just bothers me when you see the MCO make a new reaction low
2014-09-30 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: attempt, or is successful, at taking out the last reaction high
2014-09-30 17:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it needs more than a day to follow through
2014-09-30 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a good omen
2014-09-30 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still can be saved
2014-09-30 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take a mighty amount of money to do so now
2014-09-30 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX volume MCO
2014-09-30 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to be the area in which money is moving into right now
2014-09-30 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a defensive move?
2014-09-30 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or just part of end of month/quarter allocations?
2014-09-30 17:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll find out as soon as tomorrow if it's the later or not
2014-09-30 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep the market up so that you can show glowing returns for your shareholders
2014-09-30 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a snapshot of your open positions
2014-09-30 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then unload?
2014-09-30 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something of note though
2014-09-30 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the 21 day close up chart of the OEX volume MCSUM
2014-09-30 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that we settled today below the early September consolidation lows
2014-09-30 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should see downside follow through over the next several days
2014-09-30 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the target of +750
2014-09-30 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of action with the Dow volume McClellan's as with the OEX
2014-09-30 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCSUM, however, cut through the +250 level today like a hot knife
2014-09-30 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next likely area of possible support will be the MCSUM zero line
2014-09-30 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much bearish texture holding things at bay for the bulls
2014-09-30 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is going to take time
2014-09-30 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCSUM is in sync to the downside with its breadth cousin
2014-09-30 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the weakest market index continues to be the small caps
2014-09-30 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where you're going to get the most bang for your buck on any further shake out
2014-09-30 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM's gap expansion of late is showing a lot of money moving out of stocks right now
2014-09-30 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is preparing for the worse it would seem
2014-09-30 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever the "worse" is...is still yet to be fully determined
2014-09-30 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this correction feels very different than the past ones we've had since the November 2012 lows
2014-09-30 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-30 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that something is about to "break" in the next couple of trading days
2014-09-30 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely BEFORE Friday's jobs data
2014-09-30 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further weakness here will likely keep stocks in a correctional "trend" for most of the month of October
2014-09-30 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any breaks below the recent MCO lows generating deep price discounts from current levels
2014-09-30 17:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the bulls step up here
2014-09-30 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the decline on any break could be a bit on the ugly side since many have been "conditioned" to buy the pullbacks and this time it didn't work out
2014-09-30 17:19:04 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: big selling in IWM at the close - not sure if its due to EOQ though.
2014-09-30 17:19:12 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: with volume
2014-09-30 17:20:56 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: btw Dennis says hi to you...denleo i.e
2014-09-30 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-30 17:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you working with Dennis?
2014-09-30 17:21:14 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: and futures are breaking down AH now
2014-09-30 17:21:16 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes
2014-09-30 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good for you!
2014-09-30 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you moving to Chicago?
2014-09-30 17:21:28 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: associated with his fund...for now
2014-09-30 17:21:45 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: No...not moving...working from home..But I am in green bay now..so close.
2014-09-30 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...on to the volume oscillators
2014-09-30 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are all down and through their zero lines now
2014-09-30 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minus and snapback attempt
2014-09-30 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intermediate term of on balance volume is now negative
2014-09-30 17:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's and STVO's are basically neutral here
2014-09-30 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take all three time periods to move to "oversold" now before we're likely to see a bottom
2014-09-30 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.47
2014-09-30 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.14
2014-09-30 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good
2014-09-30 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this and the 2.00 reading from last week could be enough for the buyers to move in now
2014-09-30 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also seeing "overbought" relief on the 21 day and 55 day SMA's as well
2014-09-30 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's going in the right direction
2014-09-30 17:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're looking for a buy point, that is
2014-09-30 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2014-09-30 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2014-09-30 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the NASDAQ is going to start to play downside catch up to the MID and SML
2014-09-30 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .97
2014-09-30 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2014-09-30 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minimally "oversold" there
2014-09-30 17:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-30 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like it's going to be a very interesting couple of days coming up
2014-09-30 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any follow through to the downside in several of the MCO's pushing their respected MCSUM's below trend or 250 increment support levels
2014-09-30 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2014-09-30 17:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still a split market
2014-09-30 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2014-09-30 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll likely see more days like last Thursday as we move along
2014-09-30 17:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2014-09-30 17:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash is king for the longs
2014-09-30 17:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while those who have experience in shorting should keep an appropriate stop while watching breadth plurality near term
2014-09-30 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break these internal support levels
2014-09-30 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will know and FEEL it
2014-09-30 17:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be a different tone than, let's say, today's opening which was weak at first glance
2014-09-30 17:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but rallied sharply after the first hour
2014-09-30 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only to feel the weight of a lack of buyer support later in the day
2014-09-30 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time...there won't be much in the way of a counter move
2014-09-30 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS
2014-09-30 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -25
2014-09-30 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're seeing a lot more bearish EMA crossovers now
2014-09-30 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -25 would be an "accumulate shorts" signal
2014-09-30 17:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would be a little more patient to see how the day goes on Wednesday...
2014-09-30 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe place a sell stop on a short if the lows of the morning are taken out after lunch (as one idea)
2014-09-30 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no rush here
2014-09-30 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2014-09-30 17:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is still filled to the brim with liquidity
2014-09-30 17:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any mention by a Fed Governor might be a spark to cover
2014-09-30 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though that didn't happen yesterday, did it?
2014-09-30 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-30 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch..BAD day for silver
2014-09-30 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 2.84%
2014-09-30 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that whole asset class is cruisin' for a brusin'
2014-09-30 17:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2014-09-30 17:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-09-30 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-09-30 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super Wednesday and Thursday
2014-09-30 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again 46 hours from now
2014-09-30 17:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-09-30 17:41:54 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thanks fib...good night all

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