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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-09-30 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-09-30 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-09-30 16:00:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thank you.
2010-09-30 16:01:18 [Message] darris -> Chat: Wild day. Perfect Pivot Play, Yahoo!!
2010-09-30 16:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had a lot of small point changes on the MCO yesterday...I haven't heard how we did as yet...so I'll be surprised
2010-09-30 16:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-09-30 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if we got our blow off or not...?
2010-09-30 16:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-09-30 16:02:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think so
2010-09-30 16:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that's a nasty outside range day bar there on the NYA
2010-09-30 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must had opened higher at the open?
2010-09-30 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2010-09-30 16:02:56 [Message] darris -> Chat: It is the end of the month, so we can discount the negative numbers a bit, until we see how things get going tomorrow
2010-09-30 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ha!
2010-09-30 16:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 100 Dow points...and down 80 intraday
2010-09-30 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that would qualify as choppy behavior!
2010-09-30 16:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...let's get going, shall we?
2010-09-30 16:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2010-09-30 16:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still remains above its zero line
2010-09-30 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as do its components
2010-09-30 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls continue to have control of things in the short term
2010-09-30 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're now starting to see a lot of tension with the bulls by witnessed with the small up/down movements in the McClellan Oscillator over the last week
2010-09-30 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just checking the structure with a ruler
2010-09-30 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO still remains with a bottoms above bottoms formation
2010-09-30 16:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to continue to give the nod to the bulls until we don't
2010-09-30 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of surprised we haven't broken below the zero line as yet
2010-09-30 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually what happens, when things like this get delayed, it's often that we see a sharp break in the trend as to catch up to what would be usual and customary
2010-09-30 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a sharp break means...a sharp move below the zero line
2010-09-30 16:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the tight movements in the MCO
2010-09-30 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the separation of the MCSUM postings continue to show a bit of a struggle by the bulls to keep the ball rolling
2010-09-30 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we've said in the past...until the MCSUM turns lower, there really isn't any hurry to play the short side
2010-09-30 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another less than 5 point change tonight on the RA NYSE breadth MCO
2010-09-30 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is primarily because of the tough MCSUM gap resistance zone in which the RA NYSE breadth MCSUM is up against at the current time
2010-09-30 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern from the beginning of the year
2010-09-30 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug) things just don't feel right here
2010-09-30 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that the bulls continue to have a lot of problems in finding more and more participants to continue the uptrend
2010-09-30 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another less than 5 point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO as well
2010-09-30 16:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components still in a bullish crossover configuration
2010-09-30 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...here we go
2010-09-30 16:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now moved down and through its zero line with a reading of -6
2010-09-30 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough to change the trend since we're likely to see a bounce first off this area
2010-09-30 16:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the leadership of the September advance is showing more and more decaying behavior
2010-09-30 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rising bottoms line on the NDX breadth MCO comes in at around the -60 level
2010-09-30 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see more in the way of selling near term, and still remain intermediate term bullish
2010-09-30 16:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind that the components of the NDX breadth MCO remain well above their zero line
2010-09-30 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're only seeing a correction here
2010-09-30 16:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing in the way of a new trend developing
2010-09-30 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now at its zero line
2010-09-30 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now starting to see the SPX breadth MCSUM begin a curve in top like fashion in and around the +500 level
2010-09-30 16:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls to really carry the ball here, they will need to move above this +500 level
2010-09-30 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we've already transversed 100 data points in the MCSUM to get here, a pause to refresh before attempting to break above this level would be an expected and healthy thing
2010-09-30 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO now has a reading of -20
2010-09-30 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess it all depends on what you look as to whether we have broken below the zero line or not
2010-09-30 16:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component here is on a crossover sell
2010-09-30 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both the 5% and 10% Trends remain above their zero lines
2010-09-30 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning...correction
2010-09-30 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO is now at a -29
2010-09-30 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the rising bottoms line coming in at around the -50 level
2010-09-30 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...this is looking good now
2010-09-30 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the bulls would like to ideally see over the next couple of weeks
2010-09-30 16:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for the various breadth MCO's move below their zero lines
2010-09-30 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and trace a complex pattern below the zero line to bring the various breadth MCSUM's back down to a more neutral rating
2010-09-30 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while doing this
2010-09-30 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain above their rising MCO bottom lines from the late Spring lows
2010-09-30 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if all of this can be done for, let's say, the next 3-4 weeks
2010-09-30 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to have a tremendous platform to move with a great amount of vigor to the upside
2010-09-30 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally...of course...
2010-09-30 16:24:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks like a tough order on the DOW, no?
2010-09-30 16:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2010-09-30 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what index does the majority look at to gauge "how the market is doing"?
2010-09-30 16:24:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: DOW
2010-09-30 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2010-09-30 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow
2010-09-30 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the Dow starts to "unravel"
2010-09-30 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time the internals hold
2010-09-30 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and better yet
2010-09-30 16:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market lags this "unraveling" process
2010-09-30 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you get it?
2010-09-30 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-30 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all merchandising
2010-09-30 16:26:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, does that also mean my shorts should be diamonds?
2010-09-30 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping the majority from accumulating stock when they should be
2010-09-30 16:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you polish them...yes!
2010-09-30 16:26:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol
2010-09-30 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is leading the downside
2010-09-30 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if one were to play an index right now
2010-09-30 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow ETF's would be the way to go
2010-09-30 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DXD
2010-09-30 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we see breadth of market continue to decay tomorrow
2010-09-30 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember
2010-09-30 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the odds suggest that we should see a snapback to or towards the zero line AFTER we break below it
2010-09-30 16:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's not a great deal of rush here
2010-09-30 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way to play it would be...
2010-09-30 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on this kind of scenario
2010-09-30 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to unload longs after we break the short term trend of breadth
2010-09-30 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finish your work on the snapback
2010-09-30 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then start to scale
2010-09-30 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also remember
2010-09-30 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-09-30 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hit and run only
2010-09-30 16:29:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed!
2010-09-30 16:29:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but I may hit some long ones lol
2010-09-30 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a pendulum
2010-09-30 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may
2010-09-30 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the main point here is that it probably isn't the wisest thing to just short based on the break
2010-09-30 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see continued chop
2010-09-30 16:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day at a time initially
2010-09-30 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the MCSUM gets below +500, you might see two days in a row of decline
2010-09-30 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it gets closer to the +250 level...you might see a string of 3 straight losses
2010-09-30 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the MCSUM shows you who has the power
2010-09-30 16:31:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice to know, thank you
2010-09-30 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of each data point as the number of soldiers in an army
2010-09-30 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...at +750...you have 750,000 troops
2010-09-30 16:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +500 - a 1/2 million defending their turf
2010-09-30 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more soldiers you lose, the greater the odds that you defense will be overrun
2010-09-30 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this is is war
2010-09-30 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like football
2010-09-30 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or any sport
2010-09-30 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which are all wars...battles
2010-09-30 16:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: offense...defense
2010-09-30 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the same
2010-09-30 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more you have on your side, the better the odds of victory
2010-09-30 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2010-09-30 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to a small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2010-09-30 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2010-09-30 16:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we weren't able to take out Tuesday's highs
2010-09-30 16:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market showing an exhaustion bar today
2010-09-30 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with this lack of making higher highs in the MCO
2010-09-30 16:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are - again - very close to some sort of price top here
2010-09-30 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a matter of time and patience
2010-09-30 16:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the way the generals are falling back here
2010-09-30 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the soldiers finally turn around and notice, we might see an abrupt retreat sooner than later
2010-09-30 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML price pattern continues to have a tough time moving above the 360 price level
2010-09-30 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML breadth MCO moving lower today
2010-09-30 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of +188 on the SML breadth MCO right now
2010-09-30 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we stand less than 65 points from reaching the +250 level where we should see significant resistance
2010-09-30 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO rising bottoms line comes in around the -55 level
2010-09-30 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can see some weakness come in here and still hold above our "foundational" support
2010-09-30 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Total Market breadth MCO continues to have its problems moving above the +25 level
2010-09-30 16:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that this struggle is coming with the TM breadth MCSUM within 30 data points of the magic +500 level
2010-09-30 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2010-09-30 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I would put it at around a 75% chance now (as opposed to better than even last Tuesday)
2010-09-30 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're going to see all the MCSUM's move to the downside within...oh...let's say...by Tuesday of next week
2010-09-30 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO is now at its zero line
2010-09-30 16:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a technical bounce at this level near term
2010-09-30 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO continues to follow through on its break of its zero line yesterday
2010-09-30 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of -30
2010-09-30 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this is occurring as the XLP breadth MCSUM was approaching its +1000 level
2010-09-30 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly probable now that the consumer staples sector will continue to see negative money flow for the next couple of weeks
2010-09-30 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also known as "taking profits"
2010-09-30 16:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO all of sudden woke up yesterday
2010-09-30 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now driven the XLE breadth MCSUM above its -500 level
2010-09-30 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM continues to climb
2010-09-30 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less and less of the components that make up this ETF will participate on the downside
2010-09-30 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-09-30 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if one is still holding short on the XLE
2010-09-30 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard stops would now be recommended
2010-09-30 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as more than likely
2010-09-30 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCSUM is probably going to move all the way back to its zero line now
2010-09-30 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason?
2010-09-30 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're starting to get a hint of economic expansion
2010-09-30 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price of crude should start to move higher
2010-09-30 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another reason?
2010-09-30 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the leading indicator of the direction of oil, gold, continues to move to higher and higher highs
2010-09-30 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: third reason?
2010-09-30 16:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we highlighted the sector on Tuesday with a negative bias!
2010-09-30 16:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (kiss of death)
2010-09-30 16:48:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Fed wants inflation without raising rates
2010-09-30 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED wants inflation?
2010-09-30 16:48:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2010-09-30 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they want it?
2010-09-30 16:48:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-30 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what they've doing for the last 9 years!
2010-09-30 16:48:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: housing problem now
2010-09-30 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as they allow the monetary spigot to remain open full throttle
2010-09-30 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is inflationary
2010-09-30 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what housing problem?
2010-09-30 16:49:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: low values
2010-09-30 16:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's think about this for a moment
2010-09-30 16:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all the years that you've been alive
2010-09-30 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what years did the value of housing skyrocket?
2010-09-30 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1978?
2010-09-30 16:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1979?
2010-09-30 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1980?
2010-09-30 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1988?
2010-09-30 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1989?
2010-09-30 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2005?
2010-09-30 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2006?
2010-09-30 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2007?
2010-09-30 16:50:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 2005
2010-09-30 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do all of these years have in common?
2010-09-30 16:50:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: give or take
2010-09-30 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was happening in the gold market?
2010-09-30 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1980?
2010-09-30 16:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1988?
2010-09-30 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2007?
2010-09-30 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't gold top?
2010-09-30 16:51:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: peaking
2010-09-30 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-09-30 16:51:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-30 16:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we use this kind of history as a guide
2010-09-30 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when would expect housing to move higher?
2010-09-30 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the beginning of the gold move?
2010-09-30 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or towards the end?
2010-09-30 16:52:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: end
2010-09-30 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you see an end to the uptrend in gold as yet?
2010-09-30 16:52:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2010-09-30 16:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why worry?
2010-09-30 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-30 16:53:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well put
2010-09-30 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tom McClellan has done some research
2010-09-30 16:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and he's found a correlation that the price of lumber tends to lead the direction of the housing market by about 12 months
2010-09-30 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 12 months ago lumber had a "double bottom" of sorts
2010-09-30 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this remains consistent...we should be bottoming now in this same fashion
2010-09-30 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another thing to think about...
2010-09-30 16:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does the cost of housing rise when interest rates are declining?
2010-09-30 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or does the rising interest rates stem enough demand to push the prices of housing higher?
2010-09-30 16:55:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not net
2010-09-30 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2010-09-30 16:56:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: from a ground eye view, my daughter has been house hunting for a year-they now are starting to get bids faster
2010-09-30 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30 year paper came in at all time lows today
2010-09-30 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...they should be
2010-09-30 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait until the Spring
2010-09-30 16:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even here in California we're starting to see more and more sale signs turning into sold signs
2010-09-30 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm in the Sacramento region which, next to Phoenix and Las Vegas, got clobbered the most
2010-09-30 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides...who wants to buy a house now?
2010-09-30 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you could
2010-09-30 16:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are banks lending?
2010-09-30 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-09-30 16:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a suggestion for your daughter
2010-09-30 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lock in all the paper work BEFORE going out there
2010-09-30 16:58:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: she did
2010-09-30 16:58:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, thanks
2010-09-30 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way...you'll have a quick escrow...and she'll be in the power position
2010-09-30 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and great to hear
2010-09-30 16:58:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-09-30 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what market?
2010-09-30 16:59:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Cleveland suburbs-by me
2010-09-30 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...with LeBron leaving, I'm sure you guys are at rock bottom now!
2010-09-30 16:59:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, she couldn't afford it till prices plunged
2010-09-30 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is that down payment
2010-09-30 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if she has 20% (like the old days), and a constant income, she should be fine
2010-09-30 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2010-09-30 17:00:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: she has a lot of savings, yes
2010-09-30 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're a good mentor
2010-09-30 17:01:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thank you
2010-09-30 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: best of luck to her (and you)
2010-09-30 17:01:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks!
2010-09-30 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the XLF breadth MCO
2010-09-30 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we've traced out a very complex pattern just below the zero line
2010-09-30 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has allowed the XLF breadth MCSUM to fully snapback now to its zero line of which was one the expectations we talked about two weeks ago
2010-09-30 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with both the short term and intermediate term trends of breadth now neutral, one side is about to take control of the action
2010-09-30 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if...
2010-09-30 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow starts to shake out here
2010-09-30 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the OEX and SPX, and NDX
2010-09-30 17:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2010-09-30 17:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials sneak higher?
2010-09-30 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leading the way higher
2010-09-30 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2010-09-30 17:03:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: perfect
2010-09-30 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something to watch for
2010-09-30 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a lot of slight of hand here
2010-09-30 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be very important to watch everything and not get fixated on one thing
2010-09-30 17:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more people start to get concern here
2010-09-30 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the platform
2010-09-30 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO continues to work itself lower
2010-09-30 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should now start to anticipate that a turn to the downside in the XLV breadth MCSUM is upon us given that we have a reading of +779
2010-09-30 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLI price pattern
2010-09-30 17:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that this morning's opening pushed the price bar to met its July upside MCO objective of the May highs today
2010-09-30 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with MCSUM divergence in place right now, and the XLI breadth MCO at a reading of +4, this should help the Dow to unwind over the next several weeks
2010-09-30 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO broke below its zero line today
2010-09-30 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take a look at what level this is taking place on the XLB breadth MCSUM...just above the +750 level
2010-09-30 17:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking down at the components...and they remain above their zero line...so...correction there
2010-09-30 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is now showing downside leadership
2010-09-30 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above its zero line with a reading of +15
2010-09-30 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2 month rising bottoms line on the XLK breadth MCO comes in at the zero line
2010-09-30 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after showing an internal failure by the bulls to add to their near term move above the XLU breadth MCO
2010-09-30 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now gone back negative
2010-09-30 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2010-09-30 17:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a breakdown below the +750 level on the XLU breadth MCSUM
2010-09-30 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the components right at zero
2010-09-30 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the staples, we might be looking at a sell signal here in the next couple of days
2010-09-30 17:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last note on the XLU breadth MCSUM
2010-09-30 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how close the postings are of the declining MCSUM pattern has been since its top
2010-09-30 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shows us that the bears don't really have much in the way of power here
2010-09-30 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2010-09-30 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this MCSUM continues to decline
2010-09-30 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see higher price highs BEFORE we see the XLU meet its zero line (if it's able to at all)
2010-09-30 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pattern support there is around the $30.75 level
2010-09-30 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the yield is "worth the wait"
2010-09-30 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...under these kind of conditions
2010-09-30 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would probably be better to play the break down below the +750 level as a "hold signal"
2010-09-30 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or put it another way
2010-09-30 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "no new buying" as opposed to selling outright
2010-09-30 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...breadth of market continues to show sluggish behavior
2010-09-30 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX, Dow, and NDX showing breaks below their MCO zero lines
2010-09-30 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the benefit of Price Watcher who just arrived
2010-09-30 17:16:43 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-09-30 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch your shorts very closely now in the XLE
2010-09-30 17:17:00 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I think the same
2010-09-30 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we found new found power to the upside yesterday...and continued today
2010-09-30 17:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2010-09-30 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the last sectors that tend to top out when indices see their highs is.....Energy
2010-09-30 17:17:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2010-09-30 17:18:00 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I also have shorts in NDX as of today
2010-09-30 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just don't get married to them
2010-09-30 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play it smart
2010-09-30 17:18:28 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-09-30 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it like playing...what was that British Game show?
2010-09-30 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the pompous lady MC asking questions to their contestants?
2010-09-30 17:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2010-09-30 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a time to "bank" frequently any profits you might have
2010-09-30 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for a new set up
2010-09-30 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is no downside trend developing at this time
2010-09-30 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn off any distractions...remain focused and disciplined
2010-09-30 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-09-30 17:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a quick look at the volume MCO
2010-09-30 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everyone of them are in sync with breadth right now
2010-09-30 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this the best news of all
2010-09-30 17:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as any further pause to refresh will tend to be easier to move in and out of
2010-09-30 17:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just follow your oscillators
2010-09-30 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the SPX, the other index CVI's have gone quickly negative
2010-09-30 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was what we talked about as being the expectation on Tuesday
2010-09-30 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2010-09-30 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got our bounce off the zero lines on the STVO's
2010-09-30 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain highly "overbought"
2010-09-30 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we said on Tuesday...just a matter of time now
2010-09-30 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the way the NYSE breadth MCO has fought from going below zero
2010-09-30 17:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the majors already have
2010-09-30 17:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a fairly good bet that the break below zero, when it does finally come, will be swift and fierce
2010-09-30 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take it one step further for a moment
2010-09-30 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and talk price targets
2010-09-30 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all cases
2010-09-30 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect to see intial support come in around last Thursday's lows
2010-09-30 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be based on the initial thrust below the zero line on the NYA breadth MCO's from last week
2010-09-30 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Dow...that looks like 10650
2010-09-30 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 100 points
2010-09-30 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...these days...isn't much
2010-09-30 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...we were up 100 at the open today!
2010-09-30 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the main point is
2010-09-30 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that since we're as high as we are in the MCSUM's
2010-09-30 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be difficult for prices to meet lower objectives at this point in time
2010-09-30 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2010-09-30 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that those indices that are already below their MCO zero lines
2010-09-30 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with those who are now just testing them
2010-09-30 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this calls for a one day pop to snapback to...and bounce off of as soon as tomorrow...(all depending)
2010-09-30 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also then suggest
2010-09-30 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that next week should see our long awaited break downs across the MCO board
2010-09-30 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it were to happen tomorrow
2010-09-30 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would only be because the inevitable was "artificially" delayed and we're playing catch up that much sooner
2010-09-30 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where ALL of the MCO's would then snapback to or towards their zero lines next week before proceeding
2010-09-30 17:30:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: tomorrow may bring both....
2010-09-30 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.35
2010-09-30 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could
2010-09-30 17:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quarterlies are out of the way
2010-09-30 17:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what hesitates me is the amplitude of the MCSUM's
2010-09-30 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the resistance areas continue to maintain structure
2010-09-30 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but being as high as we are...can delay things
2010-09-30 17:32:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my take is we open higher for the snapback - then it won't be pretty
2010-09-30 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-09-30 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the plausible idea though
2010-09-30 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be like we had last Friday
2010-09-30 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open higher...and then just coast the rest of the day
2010-09-30 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: news event over the weekend to get the party started...blah blah blah
2010-09-30 17:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2010-09-30 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you couldn't have had any worse news from Ireland and Europe this morning and we STILL were up 100 Dow points
2010-09-30 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's so important to understand the technical concept of liquidity
2010-09-30 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where news events can be absorbed here and now
2010-09-30 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while back in May...something like what the news was today would had tanked the market (and did, come to think of it!)
2010-09-30 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE Open 10 at 1.12
2010-09-30 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-09-30 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the graph below the Open 10
2010-09-30 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the 21 day SMA of the TRIN is now close to being "overbought"
2010-09-30 17:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't been up in this nosebleed area since April
2010-09-30 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the only way to right that ship is....
2010-09-30 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down volume overwhelming up volume
2010-09-30 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2010-09-30 17:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.06
2010-09-30 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...that was fast
2010-09-30 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2010-09-30 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near "oversold" now
2010-09-30 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're correcting on the fly now
2010-09-30 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may have to rethink this
2010-09-30 17:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.80
2010-09-30 17:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2010-09-30 17:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-09-30 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2010-09-30 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the beginning?
2010-09-30 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be the end?
2010-09-30 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to tell
2010-09-30 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day SMA's for the NASDAQ and Total Market TRIN's and we are "overbought"
2010-09-30 17:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (big smile here)
2010-09-30 17:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2010-09-30 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's leave it at being choppy behavior for now
2010-09-30 17:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pulling one way...pushing another
2010-09-30 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40 years of this stuff and I still find it fascinating
2010-09-30 17:41:17 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-09-30 17:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...what else...any opinions?
2010-09-30 17:41:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think it's the VST end-that leads to the IT beginning
2010-09-30 17:42:04 [Message] darris -> Chat: Another minor gap down or run down, stabilize, and move up. ES 1125 is a good area to see support, and then 1140 as resistance.
2010-09-30 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know about intermediate term..maybe short term (4-6 weeks)
2010-09-30 17:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only problem I have with another test of 1140 is today's outside range day
2010-09-30 17:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's action smacks of a top
2010-09-30 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like June 2003
2010-09-30 17:43:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I believe it did top
2010-09-30 17:43:50 [Message] darris -> Chat: Anything can happen, but today was end of month.
2010-09-30 17:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very true
2010-09-30 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything was fine with me until we got to the Open 10's!
2010-09-30 17:44:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What about them?
2010-09-30 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, I guess, we can continue to build up those numbers too
2010-09-30 17:44:35 [Message] darris -> Chat: ES is already back to 1140 now anyway, so up near 5 off last trade, and that puts the cash up about 3
2010-09-30 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10's are "oversold"
2010-09-30 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually we see some sort of bounce higher to "relieve the pressure"
2010-09-30 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...you're talking...sorry Darris...I was thinking days
2010-09-30 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then I agree!
2010-09-30 17:45:34 [Message] darris -> Chat: We have only had two 1st of month trading days down all year, June and July, and both near decent bottoms
2010-09-30 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had the best September gains in the market in 40 years!
2010-09-30 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something has got to give!
2010-09-30 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-30 17:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-09-30 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough market now to stick your neck out, isn't it?
2010-09-30 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm glad I'm pretty much neutral now
2010-09-30 17:47:57 [Message] darris -> Chat: I think the price trends are still very strong given the internals. Flat correction like stuff
2010-09-30 17:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fully agree
2010-09-30 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has been nothing to change that forecast
2010-09-30 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop chop chop
2010-09-30 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to go higher, we need to see some selling
2010-09-30 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to go lower, we need to see some buying
2010-09-30 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had both items happen today
2010-09-30 17:49:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: All around the pivots and Ben speaking today, LOL
2010-09-30 17:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did he say anything different than what's been said before?
2010-09-30 17:50:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: I guess not, I was just pointing out the time of day he spoke. That is what is so funny to me
2010-09-30 17:51:02 [Message] darris -> Chat: 10am and 2:30pm Eastern time
2010-09-30 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has a tendency to set up right before something "newsworthy"
2010-09-30 17:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the FED statements, for example
2010-09-30 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a play on emotions
2010-09-30 17:52:08 [Message] darris -> Chat: It is just amazing how prices look so controlled around those releases. Pivot point wise
2010-09-30 17:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's because were digesting
2010-09-30 17:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oscillators and pivots rule
2010-09-30 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just noise
2010-09-30 17:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else...(waiting for Darris)
2010-09-30 17:54:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1153 cash-then toast-sorry, couldn't resist
2010-09-30 17:54:36 [Message] darris -> Chat: My stuff, and mainly looking at the DAX and FTSE show the digesting has been going on for about 8-10 days now, but selling has been absorbed, and general price trends are still slightly up. Sort of getting the feeling we are running out of time for much more selling before we see another 30-50 pts spx move up
2010-09-30 17:54:56 [Message] darris -> Chat: Thanks fib. Have a great evening!!!
2010-09-30 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the Open 10's certainly favor that Darris
2010-09-30 17:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why my hesitancy (!)
2010-09-30 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1153 over and out
2010-09-30 17:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great weekend
2010-09-30 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spend it with family and friends
2010-09-30 17:55:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you too, thanks!
2010-09-30 17:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2010-09-30 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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