All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-09-30 19:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-09-30 19:06:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: good evening
2008-09-30 19:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone holding up?
2008-09-30 19:06:50 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Small group tonight......probably end of whirl took out a few participants due to lack of bailout being passed.
2008-09-30 19:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be honest...this was probably the easiest two days to make a whole lot of dough in a long time
2008-09-30 19:07:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: made a bunch...thank you
2008-09-30 19:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-09-30 19:08:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How to make a bunch tomorrow too?
2008-09-30 19:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: inside range day?
2008-09-30 19:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup
2008-09-30 19:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many were really surprised about yesterday?
2008-09-30 19:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fess up
2008-09-30 19:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good
2008-09-30 19:10:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I thought the market was going down as of Friday close
2008-09-30 19:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if I were to tell you that I don't expect a bailout, what would you say?
2008-09-30 19:10:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So not surprised
2008-09-30 19:11:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: They will figure a way to do a bailout
2008-09-30 19:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't seem to be in the cards
2008-09-30 19:11:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I hope you are right
2008-09-30 19:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and bailout is necessary - it never was
2008-09-30 19:12:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: because what they are planning to do will not help and just cost a bunch for taxpayers
2008-09-30 19:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the final straw for me was "the speech" yesterday before the vote
2008-09-30 19:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once I heard that, I just KNOW that there won't be a bailout - it's all political show
2008-09-30 19:13:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: It will help billionaires on Wall Street get rid of some bad trades they have on, however
2008-09-30 19:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...yes, they will - dollar for dollar
2008-09-30 19:13:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Your congressman (woman) a piece of work
2008-09-30 19:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not at a discount
2008-09-30 19:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not MY congressperson
2008-09-30 19:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: she's a pip, ain't she?
2008-09-30 19:13:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: good
2008-09-30 19:14:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: PIP!!
2008-09-30 19:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no wonder they have a 10% approval rating!
2008-09-30 19:14:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think down to 9
2008-09-30 19:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: single digits?
2008-09-30 19:14:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bush 3x more popular
2008-09-30 19:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-30 19:14:47 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: they didn't bail anybody in 1930 either. The only thing that saved this country after that was the ocean
2008-09-30 19:14:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good evening dave and all
2008-09-30 19:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually it was a world war
2008-09-30 19:15:08 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: the ocean
2008-09-30 19:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a pleasant good evening to you Dave
2008-09-30 19:15:19 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: no attack
2008-09-30 19:15:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Hard to get here from Japan or those days
2008-09-30 19:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: single engine prop
2008-09-30 19:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or a cruise ship
2008-09-30 19:15:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: pleasant for me, first time in ages i am at hope with zero stocks in the port
2008-09-30 19:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...on a trading level
2008-09-30 19:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being a technician the last couple of days has been most beneficial
2008-09-30 19:16:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sure has
2008-09-30 19:16:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, inside day today, up day tomorrow?
2008-09-30 19:16:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well today
2008-09-30 19:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the implication - a higher close
2008-09-30 19:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yesterday too
2008-09-30 19:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the screams of bad news from Congress started in the morning with the 650 billion intervention
2008-09-30 19:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you had a whopping 4:95 A/D line
2008-09-30 19:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was easy pickins
2008-09-30 19:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then this morning
2008-09-30 19:18:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: quite curious to see your thoughts on the data this evening
2008-09-30 19:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you heard about the millions of dollars that specialists had to buy in stock at the close on Monday
2008-09-30 19:18:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: me too
2008-09-30 19:18:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-09-30 19:18:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will be very interested on your take on MCO's and MCSUM's tonite
2008-09-30 19:18:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: market on close orders were the most ridiculous i have ever seen
2008-09-30 19:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you know they have to distribute this same stock
2008-09-30 19:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to do raise prices
2008-09-30 19:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the ball kept rolling along
2008-09-30 19:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...a nice couple of trading days are behind us
2008-09-30 19:19:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well today, low volume small amount of participants b/c of holiday
2008-09-30 19:19:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: plus oversold conditions and it was ripe for a trend day up
2008-09-30 19:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...well...merchandising had a lot to do with today's action
2008-09-30 19:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was a specialists day
2008-09-30 19:20:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats what i mean
2008-09-30 19:20:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So more to distribute tomorrow.....higher prices
2008-09-30 19:20:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that was the key with the low volume and oversold helping
2008-09-30 19:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can have low volume when you mark up prices to distribute
2008-09-30 19:20:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: easier to mark up prices when low volume
2008-09-30 19:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but not as "oversold" as many think...
2008-09-30 19:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe on an hourly basis
2008-09-30 19:20:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, i agree on that too
2008-09-30 19:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the daily data is still out to lunch
2008-09-30 19:20:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Open 10s overbought
2008-09-30 19:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, they are...still
2008-09-30 19:21:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: I'm not convinced that anything is bottomed even short term,
2008-09-30 19:21:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not a huge degree of confidence in that assessment hence, no positions tonight
2008-09-30 19:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the Open 10's move to "oversold", the market is still vulnerable
2008-09-30 19:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we did have an inside range day
2008-09-30 19:21:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think a nice crash around Columbus day could come our way
2008-09-30 19:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so tomorrow should be another up close
2008-09-30 19:21:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: Friday is scary as can be
2008-09-30 19:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...we'll fully retrace all of Monday's decline and start again on Wednesday
2008-09-30 19:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "this time with rhythm"
2008-09-30 19:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can't have a crash if the MCSUM is "oversold"
2008-09-30 19:22:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: multiple down days?
2008-09-30 19:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you remember on Thursday, the MID and SML suggested that a crash like event was doable
2008-09-30 19:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: along with the "overbought" Open 10's that needed to purge
2008-09-30 19:23:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes you also mentioned that a purge could happen on nasdaq
2008-09-30 19:23:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MCSUMS not oversold....are they?.
2008-09-30 19:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less the volume oscillators
2008-09-30 19:23:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 199 points fits the bill
2008-09-30 19:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would say so!
2008-09-30 19:24:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Group has filled out....maybe not so many lost
2008-09-30 19:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately for the bulls, having a gap higher this morning suggests that we still have a bit more work to do on the downside
2008-09-30 19:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where if we would have opened down another couple of hundred points and then rallied then we could have seen a bottom
2008-09-30 19:25:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: started to see some of the stocks get thrown out with the bath water for first time, but they look like they have much more to go
2008-09-30 19:25:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like isrg, fslr, etc....
2008-09-30 19:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what you were looking for last week...
2008-09-30 19:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: feeling better now?
2008-09-30 19:25:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: feeling like what is supposed to happen is happening, would rather not see it with 800 down and 500 up
2008-09-30 19:25:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: orderly better
2008-09-30 19:25:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: easier
2008-09-30 19:26:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this is madness
2008-09-30 19:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'re dealing with fast market conditions that are usually prevalent with panic bottoms
2008-09-30 19:26:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but feel like with this action that we are very close in time to this bottom
2008-09-30 19:26:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: maybe not close in price
2008-09-30 19:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I find it quite orderly myself
2008-09-30 19:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...this is something we talked about last bottom in September, and maybe one in October just like 1998
2008-09-30 19:27:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 300 point moves in 20 minutes up and down around a live house vote
2008-09-30 19:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: amazing...and on what volume?
2008-09-30 19:27:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i actually dont
2008-09-30 19:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a nice example of specialists at work...I'm going to miss them
2008-09-30 19:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very little - they just opened up a trap door
2008-09-30 19:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if I remember correctly, the Dow was down like 284 one minute and then down 712
2008-09-30 19:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fun, fun, fun!!
2008-09-30 19:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-09-30 19:28:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was down 400 then down 200, then 700 all in a half hour
2008-09-30 19:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after moving to lower lows on Monday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now snapped back (again) to its zero line
2008-09-30 19:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing, once again, that the bears still don't have complete control of things right now
2008-09-30 19:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: air pockets aside, much of any downside pressure has been directly correlated to news events
2008-09-30 19:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which makes it very hard to trade on a trending basis
2008-09-30 19:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this snapback towards the zero line continues to keep the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM moving generally sideways
2008-09-30 19:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the lack of post expansion showing us how anemic the sellers have been during the last couple of weeks
2008-09-30 19:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term support here remains with the bottom of the inverted ledge of late August
2008-09-30 19:32:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave if the sellers have been anemic, and we have had new lows on all indices, what happens if the sellers start with some conviction?
2008-09-30 19:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until this level is broken to the downside, we should continue to find buoyancy to the price pattern
2008-09-30 19:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we would have a confirming trend to the downside
2008-09-30 19:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price does NOT lead breadth
2008-09-30 19:33:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: can you explain where the inverted ledge support is?
2008-09-30 19:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when we have these kind of inconsistencies, the market will snapback
2008-09-30 19:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at the base of the ledge before it moved to higher highs around -375
2008-09-30 19:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was mentioned earlier, we also had an inside range day today
2008-09-30 19:33:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: last month?
2008-09-30 19:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which suggests - (yes Dave) - a higher close on Wednesday
2008-09-30 19:34:27 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So about where we are now on MCSUM is support
2008-09-30 19:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with this higher close, more than likely, the CO breadth MCO should also show follow through to the upside - which would then turn the CO breadth MCSUM higher with it...right at the inverted ledge support area
2008-09-30 19:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes TM
2008-09-30 19:35:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ratio adjusted nyse summation broke that ledge
2008-09-30 19:35:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 250 pts ago
2008-09-30 19:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we must remember (I'm not there yet) that with the lower low in the CO NYSE breadth MCO that we have generated a reset to the pattern
2008-09-30 19:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, we should see another retest probably after tomorrow
2008-09-30 19:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that the real magic of the McClellan's come with the NYSE data
2008-09-30 19:37:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: commons only or the ratio adjusted nyse?
2008-09-30 19:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our deconstructing this same data - CO, OEX, MID, etc. - only serves to see which areas are leading, lagging, or are stagnant
2008-09-30 19:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so let's look at the composite
2008-09-30 19:37:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave?
2008-09-30 19:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes..
2008-09-30 19:38:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: magic of McClellan's in the nyse date, the commons only? traditional? or ratio adjusted?
2008-09-30 19:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite...RA
2008-09-30 19:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the total NYSE market
2008-09-30 19:38:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ty
2008-09-30 19:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my pleasure
2008-09-30 19:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after making a higher low yesterday, the composite RA NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2008-09-30 19:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has left us with a possible divergent bottom behind us
2008-09-30 19:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first hurdle to where this would be "probable" would be to see a break of the declining tops line seen over the last month
2008-09-30 19:40:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looks like on that line now,
2008-09-30 19:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once above this, our confirmation of this same bullish divergence comes once the small blip higher off of the zero line seen at the beginning of the month is also violated
2008-09-30 19:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking ruler to monitor, we have perceptively broken above this line today
2008-09-30 19:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we do see a higher close tomorrow, as indicated by the inside range day, and breadth of market is positive with this same directional close, we would then have - at least minimally - probable bull divergence in place
2008-09-30 19:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time, we still have to wait the CO data to also confirm this same structure
2008-09-30 19:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the bright side, we now have a more proper sequence working with the composite leading the commons
2008-09-30 19:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind that - generally speaking - it is the interest rate sensitive issues that move in advance of the commons in total
2008-09-30 19:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking our line of vision to the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM, here we see that we continue to build bull divergence on an intermediate term basis
2008-09-30 19:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with a reading of -679, we are digging deeper now into negative territory
2008-09-30 19:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means two things
2008-09-30 19:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first...the odds of a crash like event continues to dwindle the deeper we go lower
2008-09-30 19:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and second - the deeper we go sets a more solid foundation to which the breadth of market can make a real headway in generating a trend in this same money flow
2008-09-30 19:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if money flow is able to trend higher, price will as well
2008-09-30 19:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still...we're certainly not out of the woods just yet
2008-09-30 19:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything can happen when the creators of this same money flow are aggressively playing with the levers
2008-09-30 19:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but things continue to look good for the longer term - better than at any time since the 2003 lows
2008-09-30 19:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and using further reasoning
2008-09-30 19:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after having a Summation Failure, it's going to take a large springboard effect just to break the back of this same failure
2008-09-30 19:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, technical MCSUM support remains at the -750 level
2008-09-30 19:49:11 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: sorry - summation failure?
2008-09-30 19:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but being as highly "oversold" as we got in July, we can go even deeper into negative territory in building this same MCSUM divergence
2008-09-30 19:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Summation Failure that kicked off this correctional period from last year
2008-09-30 19:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the combo chart as a reminder
2008-09-30 19:50:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: end of June and July the summation went through the -750 effortlessly, was that a rare occurrence?
2008-09-30 19:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p88009015897&a=118792146&r=781
2008-09-30 19:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...that was the washout phase of the current correction
2008-09-30 19:51:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok
2008-09-30 19:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at least that's what we're working with right now
2008-09-30 19:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: subject to change - after all - we could still move lower given the current fundamental circumstances
2008-09-30 19:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a matter of confidence
2008-09-30 19:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we lose this same confidence - all bets are off
2008-09-30 19:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all the market wants right now - today - is clarity
2008-09-30 19:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are they going to bail out the problem, or leave it up to the investment banks to sort it out
2008-09-30 19:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of this started when someone decided we were looking over the proverbial cliff two weeks ago
2008-09-30 19:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, we have blown out, not one, but TWO fairly nice looking key reversal patterns
2008-09-30 19:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it takes a loss of confidence in matching up buy and sell orders to violate such patterns
2008-09-30 19:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then panic sets in
2008-09-30 19:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and indicators, like the VIX, move to 18 year highs
2008-09-30 19:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: staying with the VIX for a moment
2008-09-30 19:54:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: which vix formula do you use, the new formula or original formula?
2008-09-30 19:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have had discussions in the past that we usually see the highest amount of extremes in option premiums during climactic portions of 3rd waves
2008-09-30 19:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they tend to diverge with wave 5
2008-09-30 19:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so based on this little tidbit of information, it could very well be that we have a fourth wave in progress
2008-09-30 19:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...
2008-09-30 19:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this is a correctional pattern - we just finished (or are close in doing so) an "A" wave
2008-09-30 19:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a divergent bottom still to come
2008-09-30 19:56:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Fourth wave means down?
2008-09-30 19:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, our main focus here for a any kind of indication of a turnaround will come with the composite NYSE data
2008-09-30 19:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fourth wave means up
2008-09-30 19:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "out of the blue"
2008-09-30 19:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with no warning
2008-09-30 19:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Dave's question...I use both
2008-09-30 19:57:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, looking at the sub wave structure of this 3, what does it look like to you?
2008-09-30 19:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have a combo chart that I use for the VIX, VXO, and VXN
2008-09-30 19:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you mean on the hourly?
2008-09-30 19:57:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: depends on what time frame your 3 was referencing
2008-09-30 19:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if so, I don't have access to that
2008-09-30 19:58:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where did the 3 down start?
2008-09-30 19:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the chat room, we discuss daily time frames by and large
2008-09-30 19:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yesterday
2008-09-30 19:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means it could extend
2008-09-30 19:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: funny, we were just talking about this 3rd wave idea last Thursday
2008-09-30 19:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...Elliott and charting techniques aside...the focus for now to help in finding clarity in the current news related fog is to follow the internals
2008-09-30 19:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can address the whys and where fores later on
2008-09-30 20:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the markets are in panic mode, your only real friend is the flow of money
2008-09-30 20:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ McClellan breadth data is almost a carbon copy of the composite NYSE
2008-09-30 20:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have a divergent low being constructed on the MCO
2008-09-30 20:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have a divergent low being constructed on the MCSUM with the current MCSUM reading supporting a -678
2008-09-30 20:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the chart pattern is showing an inside range day
2008-09-30 20:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can't get in better sync than this
2008-09-30 20:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also of note...
2008-09-30 20:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have now reached our head and shoulders downside objective on the AMEX Composite yesterday
2008-09-30 20:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was the 1750 level (we closed at 1758)
2008-09-30 20:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so that pattern is done
2008-09-30 20:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with this information, we should continue to look for other evidence of a bottom being created at this time
2008-09-30 20:03:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Wow. ... The NASDAQ MCSUM booking some downside moves in here
2008-09-30 20:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can also add another climactic day yesterday to the mix
2008-09-30 20:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is...and a question for you on that
2008-09-30 20:04:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes?
2008-09-30 20:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how would you compare the separation of the postings in the current downtrend of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM compared with the just completed uptrend?
2008-09-30 20:05:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: About the same....realistically
2008-09-30 20:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is the rate of decline as high as the rate of advance?
2008-09-30 20:05:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no, a little less
2008-09-30 20:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would agree
2008-09-30 20:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you look at the MCO, you will see that the answer is fairly easy to understand
2008-09-30 20:06:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, alot of liquidity injections in the markets now, if they change the accounting rules, less money to go toward write downs and more left over for market?
2008-09-30 20:06:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: from mark to market to now mark to maturity?
2008-09-30 20:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we were moving higher, the NASDAQ breadth MCO was able to maintain a high level of "chop" above its zero line, while the current readings in the MCO have been more....ummm...inconsistent
2008-09-30 20:07:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and would that allow for write ups that reverse the write downs?
2008-09-30 20:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't answer that
2008-09-30 20:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I can say is this
2008-09-30 20:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we currently have more money in the financial system than at any time in history
2008-09-30 20:08:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: assuming to make up for highest leverage?
2008-09-30 20:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once this same money is put to work (filling the credit gaps) this is going to create another tsunami into the four asset classes
2008-09-30 20:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know...I'm at a point now where I believe that any previous excessive leverage out there is pretty much subsided now
2008-09-30 20:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be sure...we're not out of the mess created
2008-09-30 20:09:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, lets add 700 Billion more the help out the bond holders......
2008-09-30 20:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but much of what was hanging over the market is now past
2008-09-30 20:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we don't need the bailout
2008-09-30 20:09:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: morgan and gs are still 24 to 1 and commercials are 13 to 1
2008-09-30 20:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's political posturing
2008-09-30 20:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: source?
2008-09-30 20:09:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just read it two days ago
2008-09-30 20:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: source?
2008-09-30 20:10:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: don't remember, but its been readily reported in many media outlets
2008-09-30 20:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...thanks
2008-09-30 20:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one other thing to consider here that it's really only the investment banks that are getting their heads handed to them
2008-09-30 20:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at Wells Fargo
2008-09-30 20:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: PNC Financial
2008-09-30 20:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not everyone and everything being affected here
2008-09-30 20:11:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: citi still has trillion dollars in assets prior to wachovia deal
2008-09-30 20:11:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That is why they need me to help reline their pockets......year end bonus time coming soon
2008-09-30 20:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...there is a reason to be angry, I guess
2008-09-30 20:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same IS up to the shareholders to fight that fight, isn't it?
2008-09-30 20:12:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, considering they are the first to lose
2008-09-30 20:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look...this thing is long from being over...there will be lawsuits all over the place
2008-09-30 20:12:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: or last to recover
2008-09-30 20:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they're also the ones who elect the people that run the company
2008-09-30 20:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would bet you that those who get their proxy ballots next quarter won't be so quick to throw them out, do you?
2008-09-30 20:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s a matter on how involved you wish to get
2008-09-30 20:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like anything political - if you don't like the way they operate their business, don't do business with them
2008-09-30 20:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that is still an option (could be in the bill being written up... you never know with these clowns)
2008-09-30 20:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...onward
2008-09-30 20:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCO, and STILL we continue to support bottoms above bottoms
2008-09-30 20:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is creating a pause, if not a turn higher, in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2008-09-30 20:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything, the last couple of days is a great learning lesson about internal and external relationships
2008-09-30 20:16:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room:
2008-09-30 20:17:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: article i just found on leverage
2008-09-30 20:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case...the current MCSUM structure on the NDX is suggesting that once "clarity is known" (in this case) we should see quite a move in the opposite direction
2008-09-30 20:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks for the source
2008-09-30 20:18:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Opposite direction on what? price?
2008-09-30 20:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price, but you have to keep things in perspective
2008-09-30 20:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're not likely to see anything robust until the MCSUM moves closer to its zero line
2008-09-30 20:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and given the current levels on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2008-09-30 20:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it shouldn't be until mid October before we see a real turn in the tide - being led by breadth of market
2008-09-30 20:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (how come these kind of turns seem to happen in mid October?)
2008-09-30 20:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also moved to lower lows yesterday, but rebounded back above its zero line today
2008-09-30 20:21:18 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: mutual fund annual closure
2008-09-30 20:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a good point Dan
2008-09-30 20:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excellent one...
2008-09-30 20:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this zero line reset, the SPX breadth MCSUM continues to chop along with support coming in at the base of the inverted ledge
2008-09-30 20:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and resistance coming in at the rounding top
2008-09-30 20:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing about many of the sub market MCSUM's is how they're really showing the lack of conviction by the sellers right now
2008-09-30 20:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's been more of pick and chose kind of market...with head for the exit moves from time to time
2008-09-30 20:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still...this doesn't relieve the anxiety level in which many are feeling right now, or for when many open up their monthly statements in the next couple of weeks
2008-09-30 20:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything...this is not a time to "give up"
2008-09-30 20:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately, though, many what may turn out to be a major bottom
2008-09-30 20:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if D.C.continues to fool around with the system...again...all bets are off
2008-09-30 20:26:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Good to be anxious before the election....good for somebody tinker they will
2008-09-30 20:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the arrogance and elitism is just unbelievable right now
2008-09-30 20:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you hear what McCain said today?
2008-09-30 20:27:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no
2008-09-30 20:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the link -
2008-09-30 20:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX data is about the same as that of the SPX
2008-09-30 20:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here we have the OEX breadth MCO showing a divergent structure with yesterday's sell off
2008-09-30 20:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far then, the bears missed another opportunity to really take a bite out of the market
2008-09-30 20:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and still continue to have problems finding comrades in doing so
2008-09-30 20:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that being...willing sellers
2008-09-30 20:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where what we have right now are Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie making knee jerk decisions - the "unwilling"
2008-09-30 20:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have a divergent structure in place on the Dow breadth MCO
2008-09-30 20:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we continue to find technical MCSUM support because of this at around the -250 level which was our expectation last Thursday
2008-09-30 20:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID data has taken it on the chin in the last couple of days generating a lower low in the MID breadth MCO
2008-09-30 20:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this lower low breakdown co-ordinated with the break of the inverted ledge pattern we were talking about earlier
2008-09-30 20:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see how we gapped below this level?
2008-09-30 20:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the power of these same support zones on the MCSUM and serve to re-inforce their importance with this same gaps
2008-09-30 20:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (how the market knows this is still a fascinating question yet to be answered)
2008-09-30 20:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with this lower low in the MID breadth MCO, this also almost assures us that we still have some future backing and filling still yet to do before we see the actual price low
2008-09-30 20:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we still need to watch the NYSE composite data here
2008-09-30 20:34:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So MID mcsum below support.....not good
2008-09-30 20:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do break down from the divergent structure being created, this information from the MID becomes that much more important as it would pertain to the longer term health of the market in general
2008-09-30 20:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lost confidence in being able to provide liquidity as any excess liqudity continues to shore up other areas...(bypasses)
2008-09-30 20:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until these areas are again whole, the easy monetary policy that is important to the mid and small caps is put on hold
2008-09-30 20:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at the credit markets, this becomes even clearer
2008-09-30 20:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's been a lot of talk about the TED spreads, for example
2008-09-30 20:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the overnight trading desk of Fed Funds has being stubbornly high
2008-09-30 20:37:23 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room:
2008-09-30 20:37:39 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: small caps - little train that couldn't, but it tried for the last month
2008-09-30 20:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what happens is when these levels become so inflated, this tells you that bankers are not letting money move from one area to another
2008-09-30 20:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are running scared right now
2008-09-30 20:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the train got derailed by the FED bus sitting on the tracks
2008-09-30 20:38:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is that a Summation Failure on the SML?
2008-09-30 20:38:57 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Ted spread very similar to the levels of the 87 crash
2008-09-30 20:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no TM
2008-09-30 20:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...TED spreads are a barometer of panic
2008-09-30 20:39:35 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-09-30 20:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if banks don't lend to each other, liquidity doesn't flow
2008-09-30 20:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if liquidity doesn't flow, the system suffocates
2008-09-30 20:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today...we took a breath
2008-09-30 20:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tomorrow?
2008-09-30 20:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who knows
2008-09-30 20:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: BTW - Stock Charts is making available a TED spread chart
2008-09-30 20:41:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: how do you get it?
2008-09-30 20:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you might want to check it out
2008-09-30 20:41:08 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: $ted
2008-09-30 20:41:14 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: but no historical data
2008-09-30 20:41:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks
2008-09-30 20:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not yet
2008-09-30 20:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm sure Chip and the crew are working on it
2008-09-30 20:41:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Is that a 3 month ted?
2008-09-30 20:42:03 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: and data doesn't match elsewhere...
2008-09-30 20:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 3 month bill with Euro Dollar
2008-09-30 20:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the Summation Failure
2008-09-30 20:43:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: oh yes....summation failure
2008-09-30 20:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a Summation Failure only occurs as the MCSUM moves lower from "overbought" levels, finds initial support at or near the zero line, moves higher, usually failiing to move above +250, and then reverses to down and through the zero line
2008-09-30 20:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once it moves through the zero line, a crash like event happens within a larger change in trend
2008-09-30 20:44:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Can you get a reverse summation failure?
2008-09-30 20:44:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think Carl Swenlin talks about MCSUM failing near 0 when rising from below as not a good thing??
2008-09-30 20:45:22 [Message] doc -> Main Room: so if the mcsum moves down to -250 and fails to move lower and climbs back above the zero line?
2008-09-30 20:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how the MCO and MCSUM move above and below their zero lines gives different interpretations
2008-09-30 20:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping in mind that the market is always in a bear market, the pulls and pushes are different
2008-09-30 20:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope, not a good thing TM
2008-09-30 20:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I guess you call it an inverted failure Doc - a MCSUM success?
2008-09-30 20:46:42 [Message] doc -> Main Room: That was my point, the mirror image
2008-09-30 20:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I haven't done too much work using this idea
2008-09-30 20:47:05 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I like it. a MCSUM success
2008-09-30 20:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...why not?
2008-09-30 20:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...since the market is always in bear mode, it is up to bulls to construct a foundational bottom
2008-09-30 20:47:32 [Message] doc -> Main Room: The bounce today fits with the mcsum data too, you know
2008-09-30 20:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this construction includes climbing to plateaus, testing their strength, and then being able to build on them
2008-09-30 20:48:09 [Message] doc -> Main Room: we are right at the gap resistance of the mco bull flag from the first week in August
2008-09-30 20:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's an interesting view point
2008-09-30 20:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup
2008-09-30 20:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if I have some time, I'll do a little historical checking on the feasibility of a MCSUM Success
2008-09-30 20:49:22 [Message] doc -> Main Room: What's the technical data on quadruple price bottoms--around the 350 level SML
2008-09-30 20:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in concept, it might be something worth naming
2008-09-30 20:49:39 [Message] doc -> Main Room: You get full credit
2008-09-30 20:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-30 20:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw....then someone will interview me on CNBC - no thanks
2008-09-30 20:50:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MCSUM Success
2008-09-30 20:50:05 [Message] doc -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-30 20:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what would you call the pattern Doc?
2008-09-30 20:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what does it look like to you? (keep it simple)
2008-09-30 20:50:49 [Message] doc -> Main Room: The MCSUM fibalaunch sign
2008-09-30 20:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: multiple tests would be...
2008-09-30 20:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-30 20:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's call it a base
2008-09-30 20:51:16 [Message] doc -> Main Room: the quad bottom?
2008-09-30 20:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-30 20:51:31 [Message] doc -> Main Room: we also have a triple top at the 400 level
2008-09-30 20:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like...let me get a great chart of a classic basing structure
2008-09-30 20:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still a base
2008-09-30 20:52:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: so back to what you said earlier this year - trading range
2008-09-30 20:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have to see if I still have the chart from 5 years ago
2008-09-30 20:52:43 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Regarding TRIN: Yesterday's Trin close was 3.92. DP has it as 2.05. Therefore all trin indicators at DP are wrong!!!
2008-09-30 20:52:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: massive move coming in that index soon
2008-09-30 20:53:27 [Message] doc -> Main Room: They have had suspiciously low open 10s too this past week or so
2008-09-30 20:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hey...check out this chart from October of last year -$GOLD:$SILVER&p=W&st=2000-10-01&i=p23375385307&a=119740945&r=607
2008-09-30 20:53:42 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: y'know what "they" say, "there's no such thing as a triple bottom"...
2008-09-30 20:53:54 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: cuz they're highly prone to failure
2008-09-30 20:54:01 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 2002-2003 is a triple bottom
2008-09-30 20:54:18 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: well there ya go! lol
2008-09-30 20:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...well, I can't find the exact chart I was looking for
2008-09-30 20:56:06 [Message] doc -> Main Room: lets take a look at the volume data
2008-09-30 20:56:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: A first for everything
2008-09-30 20:56:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: how about TM?
2008-09-30 20:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here you can see the 10 year base on Monthly Silver between 1994 and 2004 -$SILVER&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p27743290793&a=93930800&r=4860
2008-09-30 20:57:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: cool silver chart
2008-09-30 20:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...the longer the base, the longer the price objective
2008-09-30 20:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wish I could find the chart - it was part of a 3 part post I made at TT back in 2003 titled - "Here comes Inflation"
2008-09-30 20:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during a time in which everyone was looking for deflation, the market was telling a totally different story
2008-09-30 20:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway
2008-09-30 20:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's getting late...let me run through the rest of the charts
2008-09-30 20:59:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: go for it
2008-09-30 21:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to pass on the SML data for now...need another day or two for clarity there
2008-09-30 21:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but a test of the base is probably indicated with yesterday's break in the SML breadth MCO
2008-09-30 21:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like the NYSE and NASDAQ, the TM breadth MCO and MCSUM is pretty much telling the same story
2008-09-30 21:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are back to neutral after being climactic yesterday
2008-09-30 21:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which suggests a turn in price within a day or so (another clue for today's rally)
2008-09-30 21:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and nothing to report on the STVO and VTO...still pretty much neutral
2008-09-30 21:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on to the problem children
2008-09-30 21:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .47
2008-09-30 21:02:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: turn in price within a day or so..........down from todays up?
2008-09-30 21:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .81
2008-09-30 21:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Dennis on the TRIN data
2008-09-30 21:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would suggest that you send off a note to SC or DP and let them know about the TRIN problem
2008-09-30 21:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes Thomson has data problems and DP gets its data from SC
2008-09-30 21:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if not...send me an e-mail with what you have and the source and I will send it along
2008-09-30 21:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Dave - when the CVI moves to 50 or above, we should expect a change in direction in price within 2 days of this same climactic period
2008-09-30 21:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just another sentiment read
2008-09-30 21:06:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, change in direction from todays up?
2008-09-30 21:06:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so one more up then down?
2008-09-30 21:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no...from yesterday's down
2008-09-30 21:06:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ah
2008-09-30 21:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see that we had several readings at -50 or above yesterday
2008-09-30 21:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term indicator only saying "too much, too fast"
2008-09-30 21:06:49 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: CVI?
2008-09-30 21:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Climactic Volume Indicator -
2008-09-30 21:07:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: trin and open 10 numbers, aren't they just as overbought as Thursday night? you said price ceiling then and purge possible on nasdaq, same feeling?
2008-09-30 21:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as the Open 10's are "overbought", the upside is limited by only the push in the other direction
2008-09-30 21:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction"
2008-09-30 21:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though not as robust
2008-09-30 21:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as humans tend to panic more than to embrace
2008-09-30 21:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so 777 down (too bad it wasn't three bars), and up 485 today
2008-09-30 21:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .33
2008-09-30 21:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like one day short, next day cover
2008-09-30 21:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no trend at all - just scalps
2008-09-30 21:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .72
2008-09-30 21:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very "overbought"
2008-09-30 21:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .38
2008-09-30 21:10:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: pardon the time asking question, is that more overbought than thurs?
2008-09-30 21:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .75
2008-09-30 21:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: about the same
2008-09-30 21:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look to the right...there is a 21 day chart
2008-09-30 21:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not as "bad" - but nothing worth noticing
2008-09-30 21:11:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was that the only info that you were looking at when you were speaking of purge? or was that the view of the trin and open 10's with mco and mcsum?
2008-09-30 21:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all works together
2008-09-30 21:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like making a stew
2008-09-30 21:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a little here, a little there 2008-09-30 21:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes you're a little heavier on the salt or pepper - it's all to taste
2008-09-30 21:12:02 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Quick note, NYUD and the components showing potential bullish divergence and the NY vol mco showing a double bottom, all with the mcsum at the magic -500 level.
2008-09-30 21:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, indeedy do
2008-09-30 21:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll look at the combo charts on Thursday
2008-09-30 21:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...expect more of the same
2008-09-30 21:12:37 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Just waiting for clarity...
2008-09-30 21:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: scalp away
2008-09-30 21:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...sit on your hands
2008-09-30 21:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-09-30 21:13:13 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Thx, as always!
2008-09-30 21:13:20 [Message] slate -> Main Room: Thanks Fib
2008-09-30 21:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hope you find it useful with your own work
2008-09-30 21:13:28 [Message] doc -> Main Room: ndx vol mco still strong
2008-09-30 21:13:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: surprising with the thrashing of the index
2008-09-30 21:13:45 [Message] lew -> Main Room: very useful
2008-09-30 21:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this is an indication that once the patient is stabilized, we "should" rally higher for a while
2008-09-30 21:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all in the weight Doc
2008-09-30 21:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know that more than anyone
2008-09-30 21:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to get going
2008-09-30 21:14:24 [Message] doc -> Main Room: yeah, apple, rimm, goog...
2008-09-30 21:14:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Definitely helpful....thanks and GN
2008-09-30 21:14:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks fib
2008-09-30 21:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-09-30 21:14:34 [Message] doc -> Main Room: thanks fib good night
2008-09-30 21:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2008-09-30 21:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch