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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-29 15:59:46 rite01: Sure is a lot of us signed in early tonight....
2015-09-29 16:00:01 fib1618: good day
2015-09-29 16:00:06 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-29 16:00:21 thespookyone: Great!, and you?
2015-09-29 16:00:29 fib1618: doing fine and dandy
2015-09-29 16:00:49 rite01: doing Good
2015-09-29 16:03:48 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-29 16:06:21 fib1618: well...let's get SC up and get started then
2015-09-29 16:07:20 fib1618: after generated a small point change on Thursday
2015-09-29 16:07:33 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved sharply lower since that time
2015-09-29 16:07:52 fib1618: and bouncing higher today off of yesterday's reading of -57
2015-09-29 16:08:15 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA
2015-09-29 16:08:54 fib1618: we now have bullish divergence in place between yesterday's closing lows and that of late August
2015-09-29 16:09:06 fib1618: today's price bar is also a mid range close
2015-09-29 16:09:11 fib1618: so with Monday being a down close
2015-09-29 16:09:19 fib1618: we should see an up close on Wednesday
2015-09-29 16:09:37 fib1618: for now
2015-09-29 16:09:48 fib1618: we'll call it a technical bounce
2015-09-29 16:10:13 fib1618: as we should see a snapback toward the low point seen in the MCO at the beginning of the month
2015-09-29 16:10:39 fib1618: which...as it broke yesterday, we got our expected collapse in prices
2015-09-29 16:11:19 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-09-29 16:11:39 fib1618: and we see what could had been an inverted ledge has turned into a reversal
2015-09-29 16:12:01 fib1618: so our near term objective there is for a challenge of the -750 level
2015-09-29 16:12:26 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:12:40 fib1618: and the first thing we see is that we had small point change today
2015-09-29 16:12:59 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-09-29 16:13:21 fib1618: I don't know how we can top the high volatility of late
2015-09-29 16:13:37 fib1618: but I'm sure it will turn out to be an important move in the larger pattern
2015-09-29 16:14:07 fib1618: we also notice that the NYSE Composite MCO didn't quite make it to the -50 level on Monday
2015-09-29 16:14:23 fib1618: bouncing today off of Monday's -46 reading
2015-09-29 16:14:55 fib1618: first resistance here on any further bounce will be Friday's blip resistance seen on the MCO chart
2015-09-29 16:15:20 fib1618: which leaves us with a whole lot of corrective play to work with
2015-09-29 16:15:39 fib1618: putting our Elliott cap on for the moment
2015-09-29 16:15:54 fib1618: and we noticed that yesterday's decline had a negative ratio of nearly 8:1 on Monday
2015-09-29 16:16:15 fib1618: so this tells us that yesterday was that of a 3rd wave of one degree or the other
2015-09-29 16:16:31 fib1618: going back to our discussion back on the 10th (I think)
2015-09-29 16:16:52 fib1618: if this is wave 5 from the July highs
2015-09-29 16:17:07 fib1618: the minimal downside target for the SPX is about 1860
2015-09-29 16:17:35 fib1618: a quick check shows that today's intraday low was 1871
2015-09-29 16:17:39 fib1618: so close
2015-09-29 16:17:48 fib1618: but since we were working the numbers on a closing basis
2015-09-29 16:18:05 fib1618: we're likely to see some additional price decay over the next couple of days to meet that objective
2015-09-29 16:18:07 fib1618: near term
2015-09-29 16:18:21 fib1618: we could have a itty bitty wave iv bounce here
2015-09-29 16:18:46 fib1618: with maybe any of the job's data being announced this week the catalyst to meet this same downside target
2015-09-29 16:19:00 fib1618: also helping us in affirming the Monday was a 3rd wave
2015-09-29 16:19:13 fib1618: is that the ISEE number hit new all time lows of 35
2015-09-29 16:19:53 fib1618: and usually we see this kind of climactic behavior by the unwilling or speculative group at or near 5th wave lows
2015-09-29 16:20:07 fib1618: so all seems to be folding in nicely here
2015-09-29 16:20:10 fib1618: at least for now
2015-09-29 16:20:56 fib1618: also want to again point out how the NYSE Composite Traditional breadth MCSUM was turned away from its zero line in this same process
2015-09-29 16:21:17 fib1618: so we'll have to watch how things go as we back and fill our way to the August lows
2015-09-29 16:21:38 fib1618: where any kind of divergence there would be a highly bullish event for the intermediate term
2015-09-29 16:22:20 fib1618: and would, or course, solidify the longer term expectation we've had of a tradable bottom sometime in the next two weeks
2015-09-29 16:22:42 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:22:56 fib1618: and here we also had a small point change today
2015-09-29 16:23:13 fib1618: and with a reading of -52
2015-09-29 16:23:20 fib1618: we are now minimally "oversold"
2015-09-29 16:23:21 fib1618: and
2015-09-29 16:23:41 fib1618: well...
2015-09-29 16:23:50 fib1618: we're not diverging as yet, are we?
2015-09-29 16:24:06 fib1618: so this is important information
2015-09-29 16:24:23 fib1618: for if we do have a tradable low coming up
2015-09-29 16:24:39 fib1618: we would need to see the entire market in sync in order for this to take place
2015-09-29 16:24:47 fib1618: and that includes bullish divergences across the board
2015-09-29 16:25:12 fib1618: this then supports that we may only see a technical (dead cat) bounce near term
2015-09-29 16:25:25 fib1618: before moving to fully flush the system of the weak hands
2015-09-29 16:25:58 fib1618: we should also challenge the -750 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-09-29 16:26:18 fib1618: so we have quite a bit of play there as well
2015-09-29 16:26:38 fib1618: so far...things are starting to look pretty good for an impending bottom
2015-09-29 16:26:56 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:27:11 fib1618: and here we bounced off the -68 level today
2015-09-29 16:27:26 fib1618: but coming up short from the -50 level
2015-09-29 16:27:45 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM itself
2015-09-29 16:27:53 fib1618: moved down and through the -500 level today
2015-09-29 16:28:21 fib1618: so a challenge of the August lows there is likely
2015-09-29 16:28:27 fib1618: will we hold?
2015-09-29 16:28:37 fib1618: we'll know more on that on Wednesday
2015-09-29 16:28:50 fib1618: all dependent on any bounce we may get
2015-09-29 16:29:13 fib1618: interesting to note though
2015-09-29 16:29:34 fib1618: is that the NDX MCO has not broken below the early September spike as yet
2015-09-29 16:29:37 fib1618: and because of that
2015-09-29 16:29:58 fib1618: prices have yet to accomplish the same thing
2015-09-29 16:30:07 fib1618: remembering, of course, that breadth leads price
2015-09-29 16:30:40 fib1618: so it's not surprising that prices remain above the crash lows at this time on a closing basis
2015-09-29 16:31:24 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is also diverging with these same early September lows
2015-09-29 16:31:50 fib1618: and why the closing crash lows have yet to be taken out
2015-09-29 16:32:07 fib1618: this is a toughy
2015-09-29 16:33:00 fib1618: in that in order for us to have synchronization here between all the indices
2015-09-29 16:33:13 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO will need to break the September lows
2015-09-29 16:33:19 fib1618: and in doing so
2015-09-29 16:33:31 fib1618: this will then break the August lows we see in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-09-29 16:33:33 fib1618: and if we do that
2015-09-29 16:34:08 fib1618: the likelihood of a bottom would in the early part of October would become a very low probability
2015-09-29 16:34:36 fib1618: for the Elliotticians...maybe a 5th wave extension would do it
2015-09-29 16:34:47 fib1618: but we're jumping ahead of ourselves
2015-09-29 16:34:49 fib1618: after all
2015-09-29 16:35:02 fib1618: we don't really know what degree of trend Monday's 3rd wave was
2015-09-29 16:35:22 fib1618: could be part of a larger extension
2015-09-29 16:35:39 fib1618: where this is only wave i of v (?)
2015-09-29 16:35:47 fib1618: OK...now we're getting confusing
2015-09-29 16:35:51 fib1618: but suffice it say
2015-09-29 16:36:03 fib1618: that every day forward becomes an important piece of this puzzle
2015-09-29 16:36:13 fib1618: and as we talked about on Thursday
2015-09-29 16:36:27 fib1618: we should have a pretty good grasp of things by this coming Thursday
2015-09-29 16:36:45 fib1618: so we'll leave the supposition for later
2015-09-29 16:37:12 fib1618: patterns are still a bit sloppy here
2015-09-29 16:37:23 thespookyone: maybe it's the first three in an extended 5th
2015-09-29 16:37:34 fib1618: could be
2015-09-29 16:37:42 fib1618: if this extends
2015-09-29 16:38:01 fib1618: did we check that number?
2015-09-29 16:38:05 fib1618: I don't think so
2015-09-29 16:38:15 thespookyone: no
2015-09-29 16:38:18 fib1618: I think we only played with .618 of 3
2015-09-29 16:38:21 fib1618: and equality
2015-09-29 16:38:25 thespookyone: right
2015-09-29 16:38:26 fib1618: give me a moment
2015-09-29 16:39:11 fib1618: heck...
2015-09-29 16:39:24 fib1618: what we just finished could had also been an "X" wave too
2015-09-29 16:39:25 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-29 16:39:34 fib1618: so another A-B-C down
2015-09-29 16:39:45 fib1618: that would fit as well
2015-09-29 16:39:52 thespookyone: yep
2015-09-29 16:39:53 fib1618: as long as we hold divergence
2015-09-29 16:40:09 fib1618: this is why Elliott is so dangerous
2015-09-29 16:40:21 fib1618: as you MUST have the internals to help guide you
2015-09-29 16:40:31 fib1618: as all of it is based on trader psychology and what they do with their money
2015-09-29 16:41:50 fib1618: ugh
2015-09-29 16:42:01 fib1618: extension would be about 1572 on the SPX
2015-09-29 16:42:16 fib1618: I can't see that
2015-09-29 16:42:24 fib1618: not at this moment, anyway
2015-09-29 16:42:33 fib1618: but if we make lower lows in the MCO in the next week
2015-09-29 16:42:42 fib1618: that would be a different ballgame
2015-09-29 16:43:09 fib1618: OK...let's table Elliott and get back to what really counts (get it? counts!)
2015-09-29 16:43:25 thespookyone: [smile]
2015-09-29 16:43:31 rite01: got it
2015-09-29 16:43:40 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also did not take out early September spike as well
2015-09-29 16:43:58 fib1618: now much of this was "written" with the deeply "oversold" Open 10 on the NYSE
2015-09-29 16:44:05 fib1618: but again
2015-09-29 16:44:12 fib1618: in order for us to have a solid price low
2015-09-29 16:44:17 fib1618: ideally
2015-09-29 16:44:39 fib1618: we would need to have all of the market, not just a portion, all saying the same thing at the same time
2015-09-29 16:45:29 fib1618: and with the broader NYSE and NASDAQ MCO's already taking out their 8/31-9/1 lows
2015-09-29 16:45:54 fib1618: something has got to give with the derivatives to streamline this event
2015-09-29 16:46:26 fib1618: then we get to the Dow
2015-09-29 16:46:29 fib1618: and we're at the zero line
2015-09-29 16:46:40 fib1618: nope...this is far from over it would seem
2015-09-29 16:46:55 fib1618: but with the high degree of negative sentiment
2015-09-29 16:47:13 fib1618: we're looking for a very significant bottom when it does come
2015-09-29 16:47:18 fib1618: also remember
2015-09-29 16:47:34 fib1618: that the NYSE Preferred advance/decline line made new all time highs just this last Friday
2015-09-29 16:48:06 fib1618: so this helps a lot in maintaining that this is more of a corrective sequence then it is of a bearish trend
2015-09-29 16:48:09 fib1618: then again
2015-09-29 16:48:38 fib1618: I heard this morning that there's 275 issues on the SPX right now that are down over 25% in the last month
2015-09-29 16:48:52 fib1618: which means
2015-09-29 16:49:03 fib1618: we have some heavy hitters that are holding things up
2015-09-29 16:49:07 fib1618: or putting it another way
2015-09-29 16:49:19 fib1618: they're hiding the true weakness that's going on out there
2015-09-29 16:49:27 fib1618: and like we saw in 2000
2015-09-29 16:49:44 fib1618: once the the issues that have already declined find a bottom
2015-09-29 16:50:02 fib1618: the heavy hitters will begin to lose their appeal
2015-09-29 16:50:07 fib1618: and down the average comes
2015-09-29 16:50:12 fib1618: while
2015-09-29 16:50:15 fib1618: underneath it all
2015-09-29 16:50:31 fib1618: we're seeing broader issues begin trend higher in support of a future uptrend
2015-09-29 16:51:45 fib1618: moving to the MID price chart
2015-09-29 16:52:13 fib1618: and here we closed just .35 above the closing lows of August today
2015-09-29 16:52:22 fib1618: so no divergence there as yet
2015-09-29 16:52:45 fib1618: and according to the 8 day and 13 day ADX
2015-09-29 16:52:54 fib1618: prices are only now beginning to trend to the downside
2015-09-29 16:52:58 fib1618: that's not good news for the bulls
2015-09-29 16:53:21 fib1618: chart action looks miserable as well
2015-09-29 16:53:35 fib1618: I'm not "feeling" a bottom here
2015-09-29 16:53:54 fib1618: but do have a feeling that we're going to fail on the bounce
2015-09-29 16:54:06 thespookyone: ditto
2015-09-29 16:54:17 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:54:36 fib1618: and we now have the potential for bull divergence in place
2015-09-29 16:54:54 fib1618: Oy
2015-09-29 16:55:05 fib1618: ADX here is also saying a downtrend is underway
2015-09-29 16:55:24 fib1618: ouch
2015-09-29 16:55:32 fib1618: the Russel is getting clobbered here
2015-09-29 16:56:10 fib1618: the action is also negative in the SML breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:56:14 fib1618: with a break below the zero line
2015-09-29 16:56:16 fib1618: a snapback
2015-09-29 16:56:18 fib1618: and then to lower lows
2015-09-29 16:56:34 fib1618: while breaking the 9/1 lows in the process
2015-09-29 16:56:57 fib1618: and we have downside texture as well
2015-09-29 16:57:12 fib1618: the buyers need to step in and give a solid performance near term
2015-09-29 16:57:24 fib1618: or we're likely going to correct into early next year
2015-09-29 16:57:46 fib1618: in all cases
2015-09-29 16:58:09 fib1618: Friday's blip higher in the MCO's will be the trigger to whether we've seen price lows over the near term
2015-09-29 16:58:13 thespookyone: It seems the only buyers have been the bots...
2015-09-29 16:58:20 fib1618: don't know if I can point a finger on it
2015-09-29 16:58:23 fib1618: bots?
2015-09-29 16:58:26 fib1618: technicians?
2015-09-29 16:58:32 thespookyone: machines
2015-09-29 16:58:35 fib1618: <shrug>
2015-09-29 16:58:43 fib1618: doesn't really matter
2015-09-29 16:58:50 fib1618: what does matter is that the market is "off" right now
2015-09-29 16:59:05 fib1618: and in order to correct this
2015-09-29 16:59:14 fib1618: we'll still need to see some sort of flush
2015-09-29 16:59:27 fib1618: and with market trading of late
2015-09-29 16:59:41 fib1618: where 200 and 300 point moves in the Dow have become common place
2015-09-29 16:59:55 fib1618: it would seem that a move in the 500-600 point range will be needed to really shake the tree
2015-09-29 17:00:23 fib1618: there's a lot of crosscurrents this week alone
2015-09-29 17:00:41 fib1618: just not seeing consistency here
2015-09-29 17:00:49 fib1618: maybe with the volume...we'll see in a moment
2015-09-29 17:01:18 fib1618: no divergence on the Wilshire
2015-09-29 17:01:40 fib1618: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO as well
2015-09-29 17:01:50 fib1618: with a -47 reading
2015-09-29 17:02:07 fib1618: so we still have loads of room still compared to the August lows
2015-09-29 17:02:18 fib1618: to where a more appropriate bottom might develop
2015-09-29 17:02:28 fib1618: and until we see this happen
2015-09-29 17:02:47 fib1618: it doesn't look like we're going to get our price low this time around
2015-09-29 17:03:07 fib1618: and today was more of a technical "challenge" of the August price lows
2015-09-29 17:03:25 fib1618: the DAX and CAC have already broken below these same levels
2015-09-29 17:03:30 fib1618: so even on a global level
2015-09-29 17:03:35 fib1618: we're not in sync here
2015-09-29 17:04:10 fib1618: the FTSE is also playing "footsie" with its August lows as well
2015-09-29 17:04:17 fib1618: nope...can't see it
2015-09-29 17:04:22 fib1618: maybe I'm wrong
2015-09-29 17:04:27 fib1618: let's see how the volume data looks
2015-09-29 17:05:01 fib1618: just saw the XLY breadth MCSUM...yuck!
2015-09-29 17:05:16 fib1618: but that's not at all surprising, is it?
2015-09-29 17:06:04 fib1618: the NYSE volume MCO's seem to be echoing their breadth cousins
2015-09-29 17:06:08 fib1618: if not leading to the downside
2015-09-29 17:06:20 fib1618: the NASDAQ as well
2015-09-29 17:06:28 fib1618: as it had a small point change there today
2015-09-29 17:06:56 fib1618: small point change on the NDX volume MCO as well
2015-09-29 17:07:11 fib1618: seems there was some positioning going into tomorrow's ADP
2015-09-29 17:07:44 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO also moved below its early September lows today
2015-09-29 17:07:55 fib1618: so we'll need to see breadth confirm that
2015-09-29 17:08:16 fib1618: like its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCO has also maintained itself above the early September lows
2015-09-29 17:08:57 fib1618: so we now know how important the crash lows are
2015-09-29 17:09:23 fib1618: as it will take a big push from both the breadth and volume MCO's below the 9/1 lows to do it
2015-09-29 17:09:31 fib1618: and with it
2015-09-29 17:09:47 fib1618: the move will probably create quite a bit of noise
2015-09-29 17:10:15 fib1618: which would also mean that the 1860 level won't likely hold
2015-09-29 17:10:23 fib1618: so that's good to know
2015-09-29 17:10:55 fib1618: if you were wondering
2015-09-29 17:11:03 fib1618: the lows of earlier this month were -54
2015-09-29 17:11:10 fib1618: today we came in at -53
2015-09-29 17:11:44 fib1618: both the OEX and Dow volume MCO's are mimicking their breadth cousins here
2015-09-29 17:11:56 fib1618: with the Dow volume MCO bouncing off its zero line today
2015-09-29 17:12:09 fib1618: so until the Dow catches up with the troops
2015-09-29 17:12:19 fib1618: prices will remain on the heavy side
2015-09-29 17:12:57 fib1618: the MID volume MCO looks identical to the breadth MCO
2015-09-29 17:13:04 fib1618: same with the SML volume MCO
2015-09-29 17:13:26 fib1618: also of note
2015-09-29 17:13:37 fib1618: is that the SML did NOT have a mid range close today
2015-09-29 17:13:48 fib1618: so, in theory, even if we have a bounce on Wednesday
2015-09-29 17:14:09 fib1618: don't look for too much with the small caps...maybe only a snapback to the August lows
2015-09-29 17:14:30 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2015-09-29 17:14:52 fib1618: and with just about all of the charts this evening
2015-09-29 17:15:21 fib1618: the breadth and volume MCSUM's are showing large individual postings to the downside now
2015-09-29 17:15:38 fib1618: showing that money is leaving the markets at quite a clip (if the cumulative TICK of the last couple of days wasn't enough of an indication already)
2015-09-29 17:16:08 fib1618: so...
2015-09-29 17:16:38 fib1618: it would appear that we have minimally met our downside price targets of challenging the crash lows of late August
2015-09-29 17:16:40 fib1618: so far
2015-09-29 17:17:11 fib1618: those indices that have moved to lower price lows are supporting bullish divergence between their MCO and price
2015-09-29 17:17:41 fib1618: while others are only showing a "lessening of selling pressure" compared to the this same August decline
2015-09-29 17:17:55 fib1618: unfortunately though
2015-09-29 17:18:21 fib1618: in order for the cruise ship to begin its sweeping motion to move in the opposite direction
2015-09-29 17:19:24 fib1618: we will need to see some better consistencies between all of these same indexes
2015-09-29 17:19:39 fib1618: and so far...we're not getting this
2015-09-29 17:19:55 fib1618: and since we're only a week away from our ideal time for a price low
2015-09-29 17:20:06 fib1618: things do not look promising now that this is going to happen
2015-09-29 17:20:19 fib1618: though we could see a price low anyway
2015-09-29 17:20:36 fib1618: but it would be more within the context of a counter trend move
2015-09-29 17:20:51 fib1618: which could only last a period of days...maybe a week
2015-09-29 17:21:00 fib1618: before we again pick up where we left off to the downside
2015-09-29 17:21:11 fib1618: so we'll see how things "shake out"
2015-09-29 17:21:15 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2015-09-29 17:22:11 fib1618: CVI's continue to show climactic activity since our last visit
2015-09-29 17:22:19 fib1618: STVO's remain "oversold"
2015-09-29 17:22:37 fib1618: and now the VTO's are as well
2015-09-29 17:22:40 fib1618: and usually
2015-09-29 17:22:42 fib1618: when this happens
2015-09-29 17:22:55 fib1618: we have seen the majority of the corrective sequence
2015-09-29 17:23:00 fib1618: only question is
2015-09-29 17:23:12 fib1618: is this corrective or a bear trend??
2015-09-29 17:23:21 fib1618: corrective...we bounce and move higher still
2015-09-29 17:23:30 fib1618: bear trend...we drip, drip, drip lower after each bounce
2015-09-29 17:23:39 fib1618: and strangle the longs
2015-09-29 17:23:48 fib1618: slowly...methodically
2015-09-29 17:23:58 fib1618: until they can't take anymore and capitulate
2015-09-29 17:24:26 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .63
2015-09-29 17:24:29 fib1618: short covering
2015-09-29 17:25:01 fib1618: Open 10 still scraping the bottom of the barrel at 1.37
2015-09-29 17:25:14 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.04
2015-09-29 17:25:24 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2015-09-29 17:25:29 fib1618: finally "oversold"
2015-09-29 17:25:41 fib1618: TM TRIN at .93
2015-09-29 17:25:51 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.23
2015-09-29 17:25:58 fib1618: so....
2015-09-29 17:26:12 fib1618: we're "oversold" now
2015-09-29 17:26:27 fib1618: which is a blessing and a curse under these kinds of conditions
2015-09-29 17:26:43 fib1618: for any rebound here is likely to show a lack of "courage"
2015-09-29 17:26:57 fib1618: and when the rally "gives up"
2015-09-29 17:27:11 fib1618: prices will tend to decay that much faster and further
2015-09-29 17:27:47 fib1618: it looks like it's going to take a series of probes below current levels to cleanse the system properly
2015-09-29 17:27:59 fib1618: so the month of October could be a weak one overall
2015-09-29 17:28:30 fib1618: next FED meeting is the 27/28 of October
2015-09-29 17:28:57 fib1618: so unless we see something with "umpf" behind it
2015-09-29 17:29:14 fib1618: the market may sag lower until the end of the month
2015-09-29 17:29:20 fib1618: the one thing we do know now
2015-09-29 17:29:29 fib1618: is that if the buyers don't come in here with both hands
2015-09-29 17:29:45 fib1618: we're not likely to see a price bottom come about next week
2015-09-29 17:30:00 fib1618: not that there's anything wrong with that
2015-09-29 17:30:14 fib1618: but the next "window" after this one would be sometime in early December
2015-09-29 17:30:28 fib1618: and a whole lot of hurt can go on between now and then
2015-09-29 17:30:33 fib1618: so we'll see hot it goes
2015-09-29 17:30:39 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-29 17:30:52 thespookyone: thx
2015-09-29 17:31:09 unc1998: Why December?
2015-09-29 17:31:20 fib1618: because if we break the August MCSUM lows
2015-09-29 17:31:26 fib1618: it's going to take about 6-8 weeks to mend
2015-09-29 17:31:36 unc1998: gotcha...thx
2015-09-29 17:32:03 fib1618: we have to always remember that the ebb and flow of the market is consistent
2015-09-29 17:32:18 fib1618: that when we break support or resistance levels
2015-09-29 17:32:51 fib1618: this is just another way to note that a secondary burn from the rocket is pushing things to even greater extremes
2015-09-29 17:33:03 fib1618: and these extremes still take a good amount of time to wear off
2015-09-29 17:33:30 fib1618: or another way to put it - even after you take your foot off the accelerator pedal
2015-09-29 17:33:54 fib1618: you will continue to move forward even if you don't give the forward motion any more fuel to extend the distance traveled
2015-09-29 17:34:26 fib1618: what makes breadth dynamics so usable
2015-09-29 17:34:42 fib1618: is that there is consistency no matter which direction you travel
2015-09-29 17:34:49 fib1618: higher...lower...sideways
2015-09-29 17:35:24 fib1618: the time it takes, and how far you'll go, all depends on the amplitude of the enengy being used to get there
2015-09-29 17:36:23 fib1618: oh...let me check the BETS
2015-09-29 17:36:24 fib1618: one moment
2015-09-29 17:37:33 fib1618: -80
2015-09-29 17:37:50 fib1618: if that holds into this weekend
2015-09-29 17:38:05 fib1618: it would be the highest number since inception of the indicator
2015-09-29 17:38:16 thespookyone: whoa
2015-09-29 17:38:28 fib1618: we had that number several times in 2008
2015-09-29 17:38:39 fib1618: never moved below it
2015-09-29 17:38:42 fib1618: just so you know
2015-09-29 17:38:51 fib1618: the next "level" after "sell"
2015-09-29 17:39:10 fib1618: is "strong sell" and that range is from -85 to -100
2015-09-29 17:39:26 fib1618: after what we saw in 2008
2015-09-29 17:39:41 fib1618: I don't think I want to see what happens with a reading of -85 or lower  [smile]
2015-09-29 17:39:54 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-29 17:40:02 fib1618: we'll see how things go though the week
2015-09-29 17:40:24 fib1618: as we have one more cumulative chart that will go to a bearish configuration towards the end of it
2015-09-29 17:40:40 fib1618: the A/D and U/D lines are now supporting "trend divergence"
2015-09-29 17:41:10 fib1618: that's when the money flow lines move to lower (in this case) levels
2015-09-29 17:41:17 fib1618: but there's divergence in their MCO's
2015-09-29 17:41:50 fib1618: these type of divergences then are that of intermediate to longer term significance
2015-09-29 17:42:03 fib1618: but until they're triggered
2015-09-29 17:42:07 fib1618: they're just "there"
2015-09-29 17:42:14 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-29 17:42:21 fib1618: bring on ADP and Jobless claims
2015-09-29 17:42:36 fib1618: and Janet speaking tomorrow
2015-09-29 17:42:46 fib1618: so it should be an interesting couple of days coming up
2015-09-29 17:42:54 fib1618: hope they're profitable to one and all
2015-09-29 17:43:01 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2015-09-29 17:43:02 fib1618: good night
`

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