All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,868
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-29 15:59:46 rite01: Sure is a lot of us signed in early tonight....
2015-09-29 16:00:01 fib1618: good day
2015-09-29 16:00:06 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-29 16:00:21 thespookyone: Great!, and you?
2015-09-29 16:00:29 fib1618: doing fine and dandy
2015-09-29 16:00:49 rite01: doing Good
2015-09-29 16:03:48 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-29 16:06:21 fib1618: well...let's get SC up and get started then
2015-09-29 16:07:20 fib1618: after generated a small point change on Thursday
2015-09-29 16:07:33 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved sharply lower since that time
2015-09-29 16:07:52 fib1618: and bouncing higher today off of yesterday's reading of -57
2015-09-29 16:08:15 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA
2015-09-29 16:08:54 fib1618: we now have bullish divergence in place between yesterday's closing lows and that of late August
2015-09-29 16:09:06 fib1618: today's price bar is also a mid range close
2015-09-29 16:09:11 fib1618: so with Monday being a down close
2015-09-29 16:09:19 fib1618: we should see an up close on Wednesday
2015-09-29 16:09:37 fib1618: for now
2015-09-29 16:09:48 fib1618: we'll call it a technical bounce
2015-09-29 16:10:13 fib1618: as we should see a snapback toward the low point seen in the MCO at the beginning of the month
2015-09-29 16:10:39 fib1618: it broke yesterday, we got our expected collapse in prices
2015-09-29 16:11:19 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-09-29 16:11:39 fib1618: and we see what could had been an inverted ledge has turned into a reversal
2015-09-29 16:12:01 fib1618: so our near term objective there is for a challenge of the -750 level
2015-09-29 16:12:26 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:12:40 fib1618: and the first thing we see is that we had small point change today
2015-09-29 16:12:59 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-09-29 16:13:21 fib1618: I don't know how we can top the high volatility of late
2015-09-29 16:13:37 fib1618: but I'm sure it will turn out to be an important move in the larger pattern
2015-09-29 16:14:07 fib1618: we also notice that the NYSE Composite MCO didn't quite make it to the -50 level on Monday
2015-09-29 16:14:23 fib1618: bouncing today off of Monday's -46 reading
2015-09-29 16:14:55 fib1618: first resistance here on any further bounce will be Friday's blip resistance seen on the MCO chart
2015-09-29 16:15:20 fib1618: which leaves us with a whole lot of corrective play to work with
2015-09-29 16:15:39 fib1618: putting our Elliott cap on for the moment
2015-09-29 16:15:54 fib1618: and we noticed that yesterday's decline had a negative ratio of nearly 8:1 on Monday
2015-09-29 16:16:15 fib1618: so this tells us that yesterday was that of a 3rd wave of one degree or the other
2015-09-29 16:16:31 fib1618: going back to our discussion back on the 10th (I think)
2015-09-29 16:16:52 fib1618: if this is wave 5 from the July highs
2015-09-29 16:17:07 fib1618: the minimal downside target for the SPX is about 1860
2015-09-29 16:17:35 fib1618: a quick check shows that today's intraday low was 1871
2015-09-29 16:17:39 fib1618: so close
2015-09-29 16:17:48 fib1618: but since we were working the numbers on a closing basis
2015-09-29 16:18:05 fib1618: we're likely to see some additional price decay over the next couple of days to meet that objective
2015-09-29 16:18:07 fib1618: near term
2015-09-29 16:18:21 fib1618: we could have a itty bitty wave iv bounce here
2015-09-29 16:18:46 fib1618: with maybe any of the job's data being announced this week the catalyst to meet this same downside target
2015-09-29 16:19:00 fib1618: also helping us in affirming the Monday was a 3rd wave
2015-09-29 16:19:13 fib1618: is that the ISEE number hit new all time lows of 35
2015-09-29 16:19:53 fib1618: and usually we see this kind of climactic behavior by the unwilling or speculative group at or near 5th wave lows
2015-09-29 16:20:07 fib1618: so all seems to be folding in nicely here
2015-09-29 16:20:10 fib1618: at least for now
2015-09-29 16:20:56 fib1618: also want to again point out how the NYSE Composite Traditional breadth MCSUM was turned away from its zero line in this same process
2015-09-29 16:21:17 fib1618: so we'll have to watch how things go as we back and fill our way to the August lows
2015-09-29 16:21:38 fib1618: where any kind of divergence there would be a highly bullish event for the intermediate term
2015-09-29 16:22:20 fib1618: and would, or course, solidify the longer term expectation we've had of a tradable bottom sometime in the next two weeks
2015-09-29 16:22:42 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:22:56 fib1618: and here we also had a small point change today
2015-09-29 16:23:13 fib1618: and with a reading of -52
2015-09-29 16:23:20 fib1618: we are now minimally "oversold"
2015-09-29 16:23:21 fib1618: and
2015-09-29 16:23:41 fib1618: well...
2015-09-29 16:23:50 fib1618: we're not diverging as yet, are we?
2015-09-29 16:24:06 fib1618: so this is important information
2015-09-29 16:24:23 fib1618: for if we do have a tradable low coming up
2015-09-29 16:24:39 fib1618: we would need to see the entire market in sync in order for this to take place
2015-09-29 16:24:47 fib1618: and that includes bullish divergences across the board
2015-09-29 16:25:12 fib1618: this then supports that we may only see a technical (dead cat) bounce near term
2015-09-29 16:25:25 fib1618: before moving to fully flush the system of the weak hands
2015-09-29 16:25:58 fib1618: we should also challenge the -750 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-09-29 16:26:18 fib1618: so we have quite a bit of play there as well
2015-09-29 16:26:38 fib1618: so far...things are starting to look pretty good for an impending bottom
2015-09-29 16:26:56 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:27:11 fib1618: and here we bounced off the -68 level today
2015-09-29 16:27:26 fib1618: but coming up short from the -50 level
2015-09-29 16:27:45 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM itself
2015-09-29 16:27:53 fib1618: moved down and through the -500 level today
2015-09-29 16:28:21 fib1618: so a challenge of the August lows there is likely
2015-09-29 16:28:27 fib1618: will we hold?
2015-09-29 16:28:37 fib1618: we'll know more on that on Wednesday
2015-09-29 16:28:50 fib1618: all dependent on any bounce we may get
2015-09-29 16:29:13 fib1618: interesting to note though
2015-09-29 16:29:34 fib1618: is that the NDX MCO has not broken below the early September spike as yet
2015-09-29 16:29:37 fib1618: and because of that
2015-09-29 16:29:58 fib1618: prices have yet to accomplish the same thing
2015-09-29 16:30:07 fib1618: remembering, of course, that breadth leads price
2015-09-29 16:30:40 fib1618: so it's not surprising that prices remain above the crash lows at this time on a closing basis
2015-09-29 16:31:24 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO is also diverging with these same early September lows
2015-09-29 16:31:50 fib1618: and why the closing crash lows have yet to be taken out
2015-09-29 16:32:07 fib1618: this is a toughy
2015-09-29 16:33:00 fib1618: in that in order for us to have synchronization here between all the indices
2015-09-29 16:33:13 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO will need to break the September lows
2015-09-29 16:33:19 fib1618: and in doing so
2015-09-29 16:33:31 fib1618: this will then break the August lows we see in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-09-29 16:33:33 fib1618: and if we do that
2015-09-29 16:34:08 fib1618: the likelihood of a bottom would in the early part of October would become a very low probability
2015-09-29 16:34:36 fib1618: for the Elliotticians...maybe a 5th wave extension would do it
2015-09-29 16:34:47 fib1618: but we're jumping ahead of ourselves
2015-09-29 16:34:49 fib1618: after all
2015-09-29 16:35:02 fib1618: we don't really know what degree of trend Monday's 3rd wave was
2015-09-29 16:35:22 fib1618: could be part of a larger extension
2015-09-29 16:35:39 fib1618: where this is only wave i of v (?)
2015-09-29 16:35:47 fib1618: we're getting confusing
2015-09-29 16:35:51 fib1618: but suffice it say
2015-09-29 16:36:03 fib1618: that every day forward becomes an important piece of this puzzle
2015-09-29 16:36:13 fib1618: and as we talked about on Thursday
2015-09-29 16:36:27 fib1618: we should have a pretty good grasp of things by this coming Thursday
2015-09-29 16:36:45 fib1618: so we'll leave the supposition for later
2015-09-29 16:37:12 fib1618: patterns are still a bit sloppy here
2015-09-29 16:37:23 thespookyone: maybe it's the first three in an extended 5th
2015-09-29 16:37:34 fib1618: could be
2015-09-29 16:37:42 fib1618: if this extends
2015-09-29 16:38:01 fib1618: did we check that number?
2015-09-29 16:38:05 fib1618: I don't think so
2015-09-29 16:38:15 thespookyone: no
2015-09-29 16:38:18 fib1618: I think we only played with .618 of 3
2015-09-29 16:38:21 fib1618: and equality
2015-09-29 16:38:25 thespookyone: right
2015-09-29 16:38:26 fib1618: give me a moment
2015-09-29 16:39:11 fib1618: heck...
2015-09-29 16:39:24 fib1618: what we just finished could had also been an "X" wave too
2015-09-29 16:39:25 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-29 16:39:34 fib1618: so another A-B-C down
2015-09-29 16:39:45 fib1618: that would fit as well
2015-09-29 16:39:52 thespookyone: yep
2015-09-29 16:39:53 fib1618: as long as we hold divergence
2015-09-29 16:40:09 fib1618: this is why Elliott is so dangerous
2015-09-29 16:40:21 fib1618: as you MUST have the internals to help guide you
2015-09-29 16:40:31 fib1618: as all of it is based on trader psychology and what they do with their money
2015-09-29 16:41:50 fib1618: ugh
2015-09-29 16:42:01 fib1618: extension would be about 1572 on the SPX
2015-09-29 16:42:16 fib1618: I can't see that
2015-09-29 16:42:24 fib1618: not at this moment, anyway
2015-09-29 16:42:33 fib1618: but if we make lower lows in the MCO in the next week
2015-09-29 16:42:42 fib1618: that would be a different ballgame
2015-09-29 16:43:09 fib1618: OK...let's table Elliott and get back to what really counts (get it? counts!)
2015-09-29 16:43:25 thespookyone: [smile]
2015-09-29 16:43:31 rite01: got it
2015-09-29 16:43:40 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also did not take out early September spike as well
2015-09-29 16:43:58 fib1618: now much of this was "written" with the deeply "oversold" Open 10 on the NYSE
2015-09-29 16:44:05 fib1618: but again
2015-09-29 16:44:12 fib1618: in order for us to have a solid price low
2015-09-29 16:44:17 fib1618: ideally
2015-09-29 16:44:39 fib1618: we would need to have all of the market, not just a portion, all saying the same thing at the same time
2015-09-29 16:45:29 fib1618: and with the broader NYSE and NASDAQ MCO's already taking out their 8/31-9/1 lows
2015-09-29 16:45:54 fib1618: something has got to give with the derivatives to streamline this event
2015-09-29 16:46:26 fib1618: then we get to the Dow
2015-09-29 16:46:29 fib1618: and we're at the zero line
2015-09-29 16:46:40 fib1618: nope...this is far from over it would seem
2015-09-29 16:46:55 fib1618: but with the high degree of negative sentiment
2015-09-29 16:47:13 fib1618: we're looking for a very significant bottom when it does come
2015-09-29 16:47:18 fib1618: also remember
2015-09-29 16:47:34 fib1618: that the NYSE Preferred advance/decline line made new all time highs just this last Friday
2015-09-29 16:48:06 fib1618: so this helps a lot in maintaining that this is more of a corrective sequence then it is of a bearish trend
2015-09-29 16:48:09 fib1618: then again
2015-09-29 16:48:38 fib1618: I heard this morning that there's 275 issues on the SPX right now that are down over 25% in the last month
2015-09-29 16:48:52 fib1618: which means
2015-09-29 16:49:03 fib1618: we have some heavy hitters that are holding things up
2015-09-29 16:49:07 fib1618: or putting it another way
2015-09-29 16:49:19 fib1618: they're hiding the true weakness that's going on out there
2015-09-29 16:49:27 fib1618: and like we saw in 2000
2015-09-29 16:49:44 fib1618: once the the issues that have already declined find a bottom
2015-09-29 16:50:02 fib1618: the heavy hitters will begin to lose their appeal
2015-09-29 16:50:07 fib1618: and down the average comes
2015-09-29 16:50:12 fib1618: while
2015-09-29 16:50:15 fib1618: underneath it all
2015-09-29 16:50:31 fib1618: we're seeing broader issues begin trend higher in support of a future uptrend
2015-09-29 16:51:45 fib1618: moving to the MID price chart
2015-09-29 16:52:13 fib1618: and here we closed just .35 above the closing lows of August today
2015-09-29 16:52:22 fib1618: so no divergence there as yet
2015-09-29 16:52:45 fib1618: and according to the 8 day and 13 day ADX
2015-09-29 16:52:54 fib1618: prices are only now beginning to trend to the downside
2015-09-29 16:52:58 fib1618: that's not good news for the bulls
2015-09-29 16:53:21 fib1618: chart action looks miserable as well
2015-09-29 16:53:35 fib1618: I'm not "feeling" a bottom here
2015-09-29 16:53:54 fib1618: but do have a feeling that we're going to fail on the bounce
2015-09-29 16:54:06 thespookyone: ditto
2015-09-29 16:54:17 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:54:36 fib1618: and we now have the potential for bull divergence in place
2015-09-29 16:54:54 fib1618: Oy
2015-09-29 16:55:05 fib1618: ADX here is also saying a downtrend is underway
2015-09-29 16:55:24 fib1618: ouch
2015-09-29 16:55:32 fib1618: the Russel is getting clobbered here
2015-09-29 16:56:10 fib1618: the action is also negative in the SML breadth MCO
2015-09-29 16:56:14 fib1618: with a break below the zero line
2015-09-29 16:56:16 fib1618: a snapback
2015-09-29 16:56:18 fib1618: and then to lower lows
2015-09-29 16:56:34 fib1618: while breaking the 9/1 lows in the process
2015-09-29 16:56:57 fib1618: and we have downside texture as well
2015-09-29 16:57:12 fib1618: the buyers need to step in and give a solid performance near term
2015-09-29 16:57:24 fib1618: or we're likely going to correct into early next year
2015-09-29 16:57:46 fib1618: in all cases
2015-09-29 16:58:09 fib1618: Friday's blip higher in the MCO's will be the trigger to whether we've seen price lows over the near term
2015-09-29 16:58:13 thespookyone: It seems the only buyers have been the bots...
2015-09-29 16:58:20 fib1618: don't know if I can point a finger on it
2015-09-29 16:58:23 fib1618: bots?
2015-09-29 16:58:26 fib1618: technicians?
2015-09-29 16:58:32 thespookyone: machines
2015-09-29 16:58:35 fib1618: <shrug>
2015-09-29 16:58:43 fib1618: doesn't really matter
2015-09-29 16:58:50 fib1618: what does matter is that the market is "off" right now
2015-09-29 16:59:05 fib1618: and in order to correct this
2015-09-29 16:59:14 fib1618: we'll still need to see some sort of flush
2015-09-29 16:59:27 fib1618: and with market trading of late
2015-09-29 16:59:41 fib1618: where 200 and 300 point moves in the Dow have become common place
2015-09-29 16:59:55 fib1618: it would seem that a move in the 500-600 point range will be needed to really shake the tree
2015-09-29 17:00:23 fib1618: there's a lot of crosscurrents this week alone
2015-09-29 17:00:41 fib1618: just not seeing consistency here
2015-09-29 17:00:49 fib1618: maybe with the volume...we'll see in a moment
2015-09-29 17:01:18 fib1618: no divergence on the Wilshire
2015-09-29 17:01:40 fib1618: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO as well
2015-09-29 17:01:50 fib1618: with a -47 reading
2015-09-29 17:02:07 fib1618: so we still have loads of room still compared to the August lows
2015-09-29 17:02:18 fib1618: to where a more appropriate bottom might develop
2015-09-29 17:02:28 fib1618: and until we see this happen
2015-09-29 17:02:47 fib1618: it doesn't look like we're going to get our price low this time around
2015-09-29 17:03:07 fib1618: and today was more of a technical "challenge" of the August price lows
2015-09-29 17:03:25 fib1618: the DAX and CAC have already broken below these same levels
2015-09-29 17:03:30 fib1618: so even on a global level
2015-09-29 17:03:35 fib1618: we're not in sync here
2015-09-29 17:04:10 fib1618: the FTSE is also playing "footsie" with its August lows as well
2015-09-29 17:04:17 fib1618: nope...can't see it
2015-09-29 17:04:22 fib1618: maybe I'm wrong
2015-09-29 17:04:27 fib1618: let's see how the volume data looks
2015-09-29 17:05:01 fib1618: just saw the XLY breadth MCSUM...yuck!
2015-09-29 17:05:16 fib1618: but that's not at all surprising, is it?
2015-09-29 17:06:04 fib1618: the NYSE volume MCO's seem to be echoing their breadth cousins
2015-09-29 17:06:08 fib1618: if not leading to the downside
2015-09-29 17:06:20 fib1618: the NASDAQ as well
2015-09-29 17:06:28 fib1618: as it had a small point change there today
2015-09-29 17:06:56 fib1618: small point change on the NDX volume MCO as well
2015-09-29 17:07:11 fib1618: seems there was some positioning going into tomorrow's ADP
2015-09-29 17:07:44 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO also moved below its early September lows today
2015-09-29 17:07:55 fib1618: so we'll need to see breadth confirm that
2015-09-29 17:08:16 fib1618: like its breadth cousin, the SPX volume MCO has also maintained itself above the early September lows
2015-09-29 17:08:57 fib1618: so we now know how important the crash lows are
2015-09-29 17:09:23 fib1618: as it will take a big push from both the breadth and volume MCO's below the 9/1 lows to do it
2015-09-29 17:09:31 fib1618: and with it
2015-09-29 17:09:47 fib1618: the move will probably create quite a bit of noise
2015-09-29 17:10:15 fib1618: which would also mean that the 1860 level won't likely hold
2015-09-29 17:10:23 fib1618: so that's good to know
2015-09-29 17:10:55 fib1618: if you were wondering
2015-09-29 17:11:03 fib1618: the lows of earlier this month were -54
2015-09-29 17:11:10 fib1618: today we came in at -53
2015-09-29 17:11:44 fib1618: both the OEX and Dow volume MCO's are mimicking their breadth cousins here
2015-09-29 17:11:56 fib1618: with the Dow volume MCO bouncing off its zero line today
2015-09-29 17:12:09 fib1618: so until the Dow catches up with the troops
2015-09-29 17:12:19 fib1618: prices will remain on the heavy side
2015-09-29 17:12:57 fib1618: the MID volume MCO looks identical to the breadth MCO
2015-09-29 17:13:04 fib1618: same with the SML volume MCO
2015-09-29 17:13:26 fib1618: also of note
2015-09-29 17:13:37 fib1618: is that the SML did NOT have a mid range close today
2015-09-29 17:13:48 fib1618: so, in theory, even if we have a bounce on Wednesday
2015-09-29 17:14:09 fib1618: don't look for too much with the small caps...maybe only a snapback to the August lows
2015-09-29 17:14:30 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2015-09-29 17:14:52 fib1618: and with just about all of the charts this evening
2015-09-29 17:15:21 fib1618: the breadth and volume MCSUM's are showing large individual postings to the downside now
2015-09-29 17:15:38 fib1618: showing that money is leaving the markets at quite a clip (if the cumulative TICK of the last couple of days wasn't enough of an indication already)
2015-09-29 17:16:08 fib1618: so...
2015-09-29 17:16:38 fib1618: it would appear that we have minimally met our downside price targets of challenging the crash lows of late August
2015-09-29 17:16:40 fib1618: so far
2015-09-29 17:17:11 fib1618: those indices that have moved to lower price lows are supporting bullish divergence between their MCO and price
2015-09-29 17:17:41 fib1618: while others are only showing a "lessening of selling pressure" compared to the this same August decline
2015-09-29 17:17:55 fib1618: unfortunately though
2015-09-29 17:18:21 fib1618: in order for the cruise ship to begin its sweeping motion to move in the opposite direction
2015-09-29 17:19:24 fib1618: we will need to see some better consistencies between all of these same indexes
2015-09-29 17:19:39 fib1618: and so far...we're not getting this
2015-09-29 17:19:55 fib1618: and since we're only a week away from our ideal time for a price low
2015-09-29 17:20:06 fib1618: things do not look promising now that this is going to happen
2015-09-29 17:20:19 fib1618: though we could see a price low anyway
2015-09-29 17:20:36 fib1618: but it would be more within the context of a counter trend move
2015-09-29 17:20:51 fib1618: which could only last a period of days...maybe a week
2015-09-29 17:21:00 fib1618: before we again pick up where we left off to the downside
2015-09-29 17:21:11 fib1618: so we'll see how things "shake out"
2015-09-29 17:21:15 fib1618: moving to the OBV's
2015-09-29 17:22:11 fib1618: CVI's continue to show climactic activity since our last visit
2015-09-29 17:22:19 fib1618: STVO's remain "oversold"
2015-09-29 17:22:37 fib1618: and now the VTO's are as well
2015-09-29 17:22:40 fib1618: and usually
2015-09-29 17:22:42 fib1618: when this happens
2015-09-29 17:22:55 fib1618: we have seen the majority of the corrective sequence
2015-09-29 17:23:00 fib1618: only question is
2015-09-29 17:23:12 fib1618: is this corrective or a bear trend??
2015-09-29 17:23:21 fib1618: corrective...we bounce and move higher still
2015-09-29 17:23:30 fib1618: bear trend...we drip, drip, drip lower after each bounce
2015-09-29 17:23:39 fib1618: and strangle the longs
2015-09-29 17:23:48 fib1618: slowly...methodically
2015-09-29 17:23:58 fib1618: until they can't take anymore and capitulate
2015-09-29 17:24:26 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .63
2015-09-29 17:24:29 fib1618: short covering
2015-09-29 17:25:01 fib1618: Open 10 still scraping the bottom of the barrel at 1.37
2015-09-29 17:25:14 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.04
2015-09-29 17:25:24 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2015-09-29 17:25:29 fib1618: finally "oversold"
2015-09-29 17:25:41 fib1618: TM TRIN at .93
2015-09-29 17:25:51 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.23
2015-09-29 17:25:58 fib1618: so....
2015-09-29 17:26:12 fib1618: we're "oversold" now
2015-09-29 17:26:27 fib1618: which is a blessing and a curse under these kinds of conditions
2015-09-29 17:26:43 fib1618: for any rebound here is likely to show a lack of "courage"
2015-09-29 17:26:57 fib1618: and when the rally "gives up"
2015-09-29 17:27:11 fib1618: prices will tend to decay that much faster and further
2015-09-29 17:27:47 fib1618: it looks like it's going to take a series of probes below current levels to cleanse the system properly
2015-09-29 17:27:59 fib1618: so the month of October could be a weak one overall
2015-09-29 17:28:30 fib1618: next FED meeting is the 27/28 of October
2015-09-29 17:28:57 fib1618: so unless we see something with "umpf" behind it
2015-09-29 17:29:14 fib1618: the market may sag lower until the end of the month
2015-09-29 17:29:20 fib1618: the one thing we do know now
2015-09-29 17:29:29 fib1618: is that if the buyers don't come in here with both hands
2015-09-29 17:29:45 fib1618: we're not likely to see a price bottom come about next week
2015-09-29 17:30:00 fib1618: not that there's anything wrong with that
2015-09-29 17:30:14 fib1618: but the next "window" after this one would be sometime in early December
2015-09-29 17:30:28 fib1618: and a whole lot of hurt can go on between now and then
2015-09-29 17:30:33 fib1618: so we'll see hot it goes
2015-09-29 17:30:39 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-29 17:30:52 thespookyone: thx
2015-09-29 17:31:09 unc1998: Why December?
2015-09-29 17:31:20 fib1618: because if we break the August MCSUM lows
2015-09-29 17:31:26 fib1618: it's going to take about 6-8 weeks to mend
2015-09-29 17:31:36 unc1998: gotcha...thx
2015-09-29 17:32:03 fib1618: we have to always remember that the ebb and flow of the market is consistent
2015-09-29 17:32:18 fib1618: that when we break support or resistance levels
2015-09-29 17:32:51 fib1618: this is just another way to note that a secondary burn from the rocket is pushing things to even greater extremes
2015-09-29 17:33:03 fib1618: and these extremes still take a good amount of time to wear off
2015-09-29 17:33:30 fib1618: or another way to put it - even after you take your foot off the accelerator pedal
2015-09-29 17:33:54 fib1618: you will continue to move forward even if you don't give the forward motion any more fuel to extend the distance traveled
2015-09-29 17:34:26 fib1618: what makes breadth dynamics so usable
2015-09-29 17:34:42 fib1618: is that there is consistency no matter which direction you travel
2015-09-29 17:34:49 fib1618: higher...lower...sideways
2015-09-29 17:35:24 fib1618: the time it takes, and how far you'll go, all depends on the amplitude of the enengy being used to get there
2015-09-29 17:36:23 fib1618: oh...let me check the BETS
2015-09-29 17:36:24 fib1618: one moment
2015-09-29 17:37:33 fib1618: -80
2015-09-29 17:37:50 fib1618: if that holds into this weekend
2015-09-29 17:38:05 fib1618: it would be the highest number since inception of the indicator
2015-09-29 17:38:16 thespookyone: whoa
2015-09-29 17:38:28 fib1618: we had that number several times in 2008
2015-09-29 17:38:39 fib1618: never moved below it
2015-09-29 17:38:42 fib1618: just so you know
2015-09-29 17:38:51 fib1618: the next "level" after "sell"
2015-09-29 17:39:10 fib1618: is "strong sell" and that range is from -85 to -100
2015-09-29 17:39:26 fib1618: after what we saw in 2008
2015-09-29 17:39:41 fib1618: I don't think I want to see what happens with a reading of -85 or lower  [smile]
2015-09-29 17:39:54 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-29 17:40:02 fib1618: we'll see how things go though the week
2015-09-29 17:40:24 fib1618: as we have one more cumulative chart that will go to a bearish configuration towards the end of it
2015-09-29 17:40:40 fib1618: the A/D and U/D lines are now supporting "trend divergence"
2015-09-29 17:41:10 fib1618: that's when the money flow lines move to lower (in this case) levels
2015-09-29 17:41:17 fib1618: but there's divergence in their MCO's
2015-09-29 17:41:50 fib1618: these type of divergences then are that of intermediate to longer term significance
2015-09-29 17:42:03 fib1618: but until they're triggered
2015-09-29 17:42:07 fib1618: they're just "there"
2015-09-29 17:42:14 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-29 17:42:21 fib1618: bring on ADP and Jobless claims
2015-09-29 17:42:36 fib1618: and Janet speaking tomorrow
2015-09-29 17:42:46 fib1618: so it should be an interesting couple of days coming up
2015-09-29 17:42:54 fib1618: hope they're profitable to one and all
2015-09-29 17:43:01 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2015-09-29 17:43:02 fib1618: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch