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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-09-28 15:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-09-28 15:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-09-28 16:00:31 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Fine thanks
2010-09-28 16:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: welcome to the chat Tonny!
2010-09-28 16:00:43 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: fine also
2010-09-28 16:00:46 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thank you
2010-09-28 16:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any problems getting in?
2010-09-28 16:00:59 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: No everything is fine
2010-09-28 16:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: terrific
2010-09-28 16:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-09-28 16:01:39 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: just watching and waiting
2010-09-28 16:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for?
2010-09-28 16:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-28 16:01:53 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Do you have MCSUM and MCO for FTSE100 by any chance?
2010-09-28 16:01:55 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: ya
2010-09-28 16:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...PW
2010-09-28 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that information is gathered at the end of the week
2010-09-28 16:02:28 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK no problem. Saw the AD line, so thought maybe
2010-09-28 16:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you have a question?
2010-09-28 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the big question of the day
2010-09-28 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did spooky sell his GOOG options at 532?
2010-09-28 16:03:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 534, yes!
2010-09-28 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-09-28 16:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good job!
2010-09-28 16:03:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2010-09-28 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very nice
2010-09-28 16:03:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good vehicle
2010-09-28 16:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially after the slip and fall this morning
2010-09-28 16:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was wondering if you obeyed your target or not
2010-09-28 16:04:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and you are mapping out the road quite fine!
2010-09-28 16:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the market talks...I just try to listen
2010-09-28 16:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for pricewatcher
2010-09-28 16:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can ask questions as we go along
2010-09-28 16:04:48 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-09-28 16:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (as long as you raise your hand )
2010-09-28 16:04:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I always obey my targets, middle 80 percent good enough for me lol
2010-09-28 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll say!
2010-09-28 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you a subscriber to Decision Point Tonny?
2010-09-28 16:05:26 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes
2010-09-28 16:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-09-28 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do is follow the sequence of charts shown at Carl's site
2010-09-28 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we always start with the CO NYSE breadth McClellan Data
2010-09-28 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can be found at http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_NYC.html
2010-09-28 16:06:23 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks!
2010-09-28 16:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you don't know, if you click on the chart series, it will take you to the next one in the sequence
2010-09-28 16:06:33 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-09-28 16:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK.. now that all of the formalities out of the way...let's get started
2010-09-28 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2010-09-28 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has taken the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM above the critical +250 level
2010-09-28 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what this now suggests is that the lows of July are part of a solid price bottom
2010-09-28 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the downside price decay of the spring correction is behind us
2010-09-28 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what it doesn't tell us as yet is whether or not we're ready to break out above the April highs
2010-09-28 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we have now met our upside price objectives given by the MCO back in July of challenging the May price highs
2010-09-28 16:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're looking for more in the way of input from the market
2010-09-28 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history suggests that we're very near to some sort of pause in this particular sequence
2010-09-28 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bar chart wise
2010-09-28 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be moving in a horizontal trading range near term which was our objective last Thursday
2010-09-28 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the negative MCO readings, and the high MCSUM readings
2010-09-28 16:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...choppy behavior...and that's what we're getting
2010-09-28 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll also notice how difficult it is for prices move lower when the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM is as high as it is right now
2010-09-28 16:12:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: saw a lack of liquidity in individual stocks today, especially aapl-what would you make of that?
2010-09-28 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where all you can basically hope for is a couple of hours at the most of negative behavior before most, if not all, of these intraday declines get absorbed
2010-09-28 16:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: individual stocks are just that
2010-09-28 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things we discussed - I think - two weeks ago
2010-09-28 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have to be careful on how the market "manipulates" an index with well known, if not, highly weighted stocks from time to time to keep the majority from hooking on to the trend
2010-09-28 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I really haven't looked around today
2010-09-28 16:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would bet a large lunch, at a drive through of your choice, that with the Dow down 80 at the open, and AAPL down...what? 10 points...that the bears came out with force this morning
2010-09-28 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: top here
2010-09-28 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: top there
2010-09-28 16:14:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: did, yes
2010-09-28 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch out below???
2010-09-28 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how specialists work their merchandising
2010-09-28 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you sell off hard
2010-09-28 16:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you take a stock that's been "a leader" and trash it
2010-09-28 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stock is sold...
2010-09-28 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: accumulated by the specialists...
2010-09-28 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then with that new inventory rally prices higher to unload this new found inventory
2010-09-28 16:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very typical behavior - it's all merchandising
2010-09-28 16:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping the trend moving in the same direction as before
2010-09-28 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's sell off into the close was the tip off
2010-09-28 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they had an excuse to do so with the bond auction
2010-09-28 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then just followed through on it today
2010-09-28 16:17:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thanks-only mentioned because I've seen it before, sometimes as a "warm up", or precursor to a few days later
2010-09-28 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the beach ball in the swimming pool, it didn't take long to move back up to the surface
2010-09-28 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be
2010-09-28 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we see the trend of breadth start to turn
2010-09-28 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a way to accumulate inventory to sell later on
2010-09-28 16:18:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: heck, I only day-traded long from the bottom today-you've changed me. lol
2010-09-28 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we don't see it as much as we used to because of electronic trading...but it's still practiced
2010-09-28 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-09-28 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and tomorrow you will probably thank me (again)
2010-09-28 16:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-28 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to the CO data
2010-09-28 16:19:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: be glad to!
2010-09-28 16:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components
2010-09-28 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about with the MCO below the zero line
2010-09-28 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components either testing or still above their zero line
2010-09-28 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were looking for a correction of the short term trend..
2010-09-28 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were looking for a bounce higher as soon as Friday
2010-09-28 16:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got that
2010-09-28 16:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also talked about how it might take 2 to 3 trading days to work off
2010-09-28 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was day 3
2010-09-28 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if something like the CVI's are "overbought" here
2010-09-28 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might had see some sort of price top as soon as today
2010-09-28 16:21:23 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: CVI's?
2010-09-28 16:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know better as we move along
2010-09-28 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "Climatic Volume Indicator"
2010-09-28 16:21:49 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-09-28 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will show you where they are when we get there
2010-09-28 16:21:56 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: thanks
2010-09-28 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved higher today
2010-09-28 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there still hasn't been enough short term movement to push the composite NYSE MCSUM above its horizontal resistance gap resistance zone
2010-09-28 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart for clarity
2010-09-28 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/nyad092810.png
2010-09-28 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we have MCSUM gap resistance in play here
2010-09-28 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a brief review
2010-09-28 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gap resistance is created when the MCO moves to its extreme point in its pattern
2010-09-28 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this creates the largest expansion of the individual gaps on the MCSUM
2010-09-28 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these areas act as support and resistance areas for the intermediate trend of breadth
2010-09-28 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current gap resistance area is courtesy of the May decline
2010-09-28 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was where all of the "unwilling" sellers sold the market
2010-09-28 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some call it a "capitulation point" in the price sequence
2010-09-28 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2010-09-28 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current intermediate trend of breadth continues to have problems moving above this gap zone
2010-09-28 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until it's able to
2010-09-28 16:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and include a breakout above the declining tops line you see on the chart
2010-09-28 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely that we're going to go much higher than the April highs
2010-09-28 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-09-28 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will still be stuck in our consolidation zone of the last 9 months
2010-09-28 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lower limits of the July lows
2010-09-28 16:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and upper limits of the April highs
2010-09-28 16:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once there's enough energy available to break above these MCSUM resistance areas
2010-09-28 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only then will price itself be able break out on its own
2010-09-28 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we wait
2010-09-28 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the wait won't be for too much longer
2010-09-28 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is to rest...pause...digest...get things in better sync, and then we should be off to the races
2010-09-28 16:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2010-09-28 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's move higher is only challenging the recent highs made on Friday
2010-09-28 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we see a higher high here pretty quick
2010-09-28 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at a completion of the current short term trend in money flow for this basket of stocks
2010-09-28 16:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2010-09-28 16:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the bulls have finally taken control of the IT action for the first time 4 months
2010-09-28 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important to see if the bulls will now be able to get up the +250 level in the next couple of days?
2010-09-28 16:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will we have a snapback first to the zero line first?
2010-09-28 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will have exhaustion?
2010-09-28 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what could be exciting to see here
2010-09-28 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we now have a bottom above bottom in place on the MCSUM
2010-09-28 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do top here
2010-09-28 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a decline that continues to maintain this rising formation
2010-09-28 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then able to move to higher highs after a second bottom is in place
2010-09-28 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have the second step in place of a bull market 3 step pattern
2010-09-28 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which promises us at least 18 months of rising prices
2010-09-28 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how high we go will full determine whether something like will be able to extend beyond that point
2010-09-28 16:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keep in mind...the 18 month figure is "average"
2010-09-28 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's based primarily on the NYSE and not the secondary market
2010-09-28 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has its own set of character problems
2010-09-28 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's putting the cart well before the horse...we'll see how it goes
2010-09-28 16:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking below last Thursday's lows yesterday, the NDX breadth MCO moved higher today
2010-09-28 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the break we had last Tuesday in this index
2010-09-28 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it shows us that the internals are starting tire here
2010-09-28 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that eventually, we're going to see a change in the direction of the current trend
2010-09-28 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...it could hold out for another day or so
2010-09-28 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds are very high that...probably before the end of the week...we're going to see the NDX breadth MCO move below its zero line
2010-09-28 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely...the rest of the marketplace as well
2010-09-28 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I want to again caution
2010-09-28 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that just because the MCO may go below the zero line
2010-09-28 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it certainly doesn't mean that prices are going to follow...at least right away
2010-09-28 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we'll more than likely have is continued chop in the price pattern itself until we can get the various MCSUM's at least below the +250 level
2010-09-28 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM supporting the +895 level
2010-09-28 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would probably be better to play individual issues than it would be the index on the short side until we see more in the way of selling in the index itself
2010-09-28 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL could be one option
2010-09-28 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wouldn't think so
2010-09-28 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a play here would be an issue in which the majority doesn't notice
2010-09-28 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in the bottom 80% of the weight of the index...that kind of thing
2010-09-28 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved higher today
2010-09-28 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't quite get up to last Friday's highs
2010-09-28 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can see the loss of momentum here
2010-09-28 16:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too close to call on whether we closed higher today or not...anyone?
2010-09-28 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we closed just below last Friday's close?
2010-09-28 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2010-09-28 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we did close higher
2010-09-28 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have another bit of potential divergence in place
2010-09-28 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-09-28 16:43:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: closed higher
2010-09-28 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we poked our head above the +500 level today
2010-09-28 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't do so with a lot of conviction
2010-09-28 16:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks Lew
2010-09-28 16:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would be cautious chasing any higher open tomorrow
2010-09-28 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a trap
2010-09-28 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is looking toppy now
2010-09-28 16:44:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: also made a new marginal high, fwiw
2010-09-28 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for that
2010-09-28 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about last week
2010-09-28 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're struggling here
2010-09-28 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Friday, for example
2010-09-28 16:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the gain was in the first 90 minutes
2010-09-28 16:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just digested the rest of the day
2010-09-28 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not a lot of fresh buyers out there
2010-09-28 16:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering...yes
2010-09-28 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all on news
2010-09-28 16:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO looks like it had a weaker day than the SPX
2010-09-28 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if we'll be able to reach the +750 level or not there
2010-09-28 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remains strong
2010-09-28 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-09-28 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we'll see the OEX breadth MCO move below zero tomorrow
2010-09-28 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain above zero...
2010-09-28 16:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce on Thursday
2010-09-28 16:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe into Friday
2010-09-28 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh....
2010-09-28 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the end of the month!
2010-09-28 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quarterly window dressing
2010-09-28 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah ha!
2010-09-28 16:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...that makes sense now
2010-09-28 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fits with the way the MCO is traveling
2010-09-28 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this blueprint is correct
2010-09-28 16:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we should see a down close tomorrow
2010-09-28 16:48:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: possibly another quick bear trip in the morning?
2010-09-28 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could...
2010-09-28 16:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to say here
2010-09-28 16:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I do know that we're really close to seeing the short term trend (as measured by the MCO) go negative here
2010-09-28 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...the sooner the better
2010-09-28 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew
2010-09-28 16:50:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2010-09-28 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO barely budged higher today
2010-09-28 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the exciting thing here
2010-09-28 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that once we get this pause out of the way
2010-09-28 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals are highly suggesting that we're going to make a big move to the upside
2010-09-28 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is for the U/D data to continue its construction
2010-09-28 16:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the NYUD for a moment
2010-09-28 16:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting close - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/nyud092810.png
2010-09-28 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it continues to be constructive
2010-09-28 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NAUD is looking better now too - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/naud092810.png
2010-09-28 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...things continue to look better here
2010-09-28 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to wait just a little more for everything to be running on all cylinders
2010-09-28 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key for both...
2010-09-28 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are the May reaction highs
2010-09-28 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is another reason why it's going to be very difficult for prices to move too much further to the upside and hold those gains
2010-09-28 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need the U/D data to either move in sync with...or preferably lead...prices in direction
2010-09-28 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason why we've done as well as we've done is the massive amount of liquidity that's in the system right now
2010-09-28 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just overwhelming
2010-09-28 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gold continues to lead the way
2010-09-28 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is absolutely amazing to think about
2010-09-28 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2010-09-28 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since gold is the asset class that sees higher demand when there are excesses in liquidity
2010-09-28 16:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the equity markets already up 10% in a month
2010-09-28 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is telling us that there is even MORE excess out there
2010-09-28 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes us wonder
2010-09-28 16:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can the Dow go to 20,000...30,000...40,000 all on the back of this same excess?
2010-09-28 16:58:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: y
2010-09-28 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that these excesses make our currency cheaper
2010-09-28 16:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a cheaper currency means that prices will rise to find parity
2010-09-28 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may not have the same "value" as it would at Dow 10,000
2010-09-28 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these excesses do tell us that inflation is on its way
2010-09-28 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether productivity will be able to absorb this inflationary tendency or not is still up for debate
2010-09-28 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we don't really manufacture anymore
2010-09-28 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: supposition is always fun
2010-09-28 17:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know - technically - is that there enough money in the system for investment that higher price highs are available to trade on
2010-09-28 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that changes
2010-09-28 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that we're going to see any kind of price trend to the downside
2010-09-28 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less, a crash
2010-09-28 17:01:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think we may begin to manufacture again, it seems the powers that be are stating to understand the importance
2010-09-28 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have crashes with all of this liquidity holding us up
2010-09-28 17:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...they don't
2010-09-28 17:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anyone who says so is playing politics for votes
2010-09-28 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NAFTA was the final nail in the coffin
2010-09-28 17:03:03 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: thanks Clinton
2010-09-28 17:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it literally destroyed an entire industry base
2010-09-28 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it happened under Clinton's watch
2010-09-28 17:03:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: GM selling a fair amount of cars in China-the example is there
2010-09-28 17:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's the Congress that makes the rules
2010-09-28 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always remember that the President has very little say in what should be done
2010-09-28 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the Congress that makes the laws...makes policy
2010-09-28 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the president is pretty much a figure head
2010-09-28 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to TA
2010-09-28 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we have some good news
2010-09-28 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCO showing a nice surge higher today
2010-09-28 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the new recovery highs in the MID index
2010-09-28 17:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you don't want to lead off here on any short trades
2010-09-28 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best policy continues to be as flexible as you can...day to day
2010-09-28 17:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO also moved higher today
2010-09-28 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about with the XLF index
2010-09-28 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the SML price pattern can get above horizontal resistance at the 360 level
2010-09-28 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't use this index as a proxy
2010-09-28 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still some work to do there overall
2010-09-28 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a couple of MCSUM gap resistance areas still remain above current levels
2010-09-28 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we expected last week
2010-09-28 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCSUM continues to move higher
2010-09-28 17:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and towards its +500 target
2010-09-28 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, continues to struggle in doing so
2010-09-28 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be duly pointed out
2010-09-28 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the TM breadth MCSUM now has all the ingredients of a 3 step pattern in place
2010-09-28 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that's missing
2010-09-28 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we should see this MCSUM get up above the +500 level for better confirmation
2010-09-28 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are three criteria for the 3 step formation
2010-09-28 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all are based on the traditional NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-09-28 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the guidelines is that with the 3 steps
2010-09-28 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to see the structure start from below the -1000 level
2010-09-28 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should transverse about 1500 data points in total from bottom to top
2010-09-28 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see
(so far) that we started the formation at around the -600 level
2010-09-28 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have traveled about 1100 points
2010-09-28 17:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...kinda close...kinda not
2010-09-28 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the theory here
2010-09-28 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it takes a tremendous amount of excess liquidity to see several pushes of money flow into the market
2010-09-28 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first two are what you're likely to see on average
2010-09-28 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the third push is what separates a consolidation from that of a rising trend
2010-09-28 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-09-28 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only had 2 steps in the 70's
2010-09-28 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: result? consolidation
2010-09-28 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 step patterns were rare events prior to 9/11
2010-09-28 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but between Y2K and 9/11
2010-09-28 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been so overwhelmed with liquidity
2010-09-28 17:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the bears haven't had any real chance of developing a top beneath a top structure on the long term chart since we topped out in 2000
2010-09-28 17:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've chopped
2010-09-28 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some would say that this chop was a completed Elliott flat in 2009 that started in 1998
2010-09-28 17:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some might say it's part of a larger triangle absorbing the gains from the 1932 lows to the 2000 highs
2010-09-28 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all up for debate
2010-09-28 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all we know right now is
2010-09-28 17:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is enough money for investment that...if put to work...the market will continue to move higher
2010-09-28 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's always the caveat in these things
2010-09-28 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF it's put to work
2010-09-28 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the game we play
2010-09-28 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying to see if your opinion agrees with the majority or not
2010-09-28 17:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's far better to let the market do what it wants and just follow its direction
2010-09-28 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher or lower shouldn't matter
2010-09-28 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as long as you're along for the ride
2010-09-28 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that your money is always working for you
2010-09-28 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leaving any preconceived bias or opinion at the door
2010-09-28 17:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a quick look at the volume McClellan data - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosi_vol_nyc.html
2010-09-28 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that the CO volume MCSUM is now challenging its +500 level
2010-09-28 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the bulls to be able to break above this level with authority
2010-09-28 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...we're likely to see a change in direction here for the intermediate term
2010-09-28 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite volume MCSUM is in the same boat
2010-09-28 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a good thing since we're seeing volume plurality marching to the same tune right now
2010-09-28 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2010-09-28 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's near term tension on the tape there
2010-09-28 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have our first real caution tonight with the NDX volume MCO
2010-09-28 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how it went to lower lows
2010-09-28 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and was only able to snapback today to what was last weeks lows
2010-09-28 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well
2010-09-28 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems the secondaries are running out of air here
2010-09-28 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but heck
2010-09-28 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX price chart basically challenging its April highs now
2010-09-28 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and doing so with a 13% gain in a month
2010-09-28 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rest wouldn't be too surprising before the attempt to break above the April highs are seen
2010-09-28 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have bearish divergence in place here between the NDX volume MCO and price itself
2010-09-28 17:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with AAPL being as highly weighted as it is
2010-09-28 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be that we saw another crack in that armor?
2010-09-28 17:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the NDX volume MCSUM is just below its +750 level
2010-09-28 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as good as any a place to see a halt to the uptrend there
2010-09-28 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the SPX volume MCSUM and its +500 level
2010-09-28 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2010-09-28 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has really changed in the last 4 days
2010-09-28 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least internally
2010-09-28 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which does suggest that we're more than likely close to a price top of some kind
2010-09-28 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dang
2010-09-28 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the OEX volume MCSUM
2010-09-28 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: riding the +500 line
2010-09-28 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a matter of time here folks
2010-09-28 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCSUM is just above its +500 level
2010-09-28 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh wow
2010-09-28 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the MID volume MCO and MCSUM!
2010-09-28 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the kind of post separation we want to see above the +500 level on the MCSUM
2010-09-28 17:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be enough for the MID price pattern to fulfill its upside price target of the May highs here
2010-09-28 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...maybe another day or so of rally here?
2010-09-28 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2010-09-28 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is getting out of sync
2010-09-28 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in a good way this time around
2010-09-28 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when in July it was the OEX and Dow leading higher
2010-09-28 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX and MID are taking the lead this time around
2010-09-28 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML continues to slowly, but surely, move higher on its own as well
2010-09-28 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2010-09-28 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're going to short here
2010-09-28 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make it quick...in and out
2010-09-28 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't wait around for a trend to develop because its highly unlikely that we're not going to see one
2010-09-28 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM seems to be having its sights set on the +750 level now
2010-09-28 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-09-28 17:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market remains very positive
2010-09-28 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money continues to flow in...and now the MID is seeing a lot of sponsorship
2010-09-28 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term...this is very good news for the bulls
2010-09-28 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get the SML to show the same kind of support over the next month or so
2010-09-28 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then be set for move above the April highs
2010-09-28 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume oscillators - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/cvi1yr.html
2010-09-28 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all 4 of the index CVI's are in the mid 40 range
2010-09-28 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough to indicate a price top in the next two trading days
2010-09-28 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough to whisper "be careful"
2010-09-28 17:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the lethargic way the SPX STVO bounced off its zero line
2010-09-28 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not a good thing
2010-09-28 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the other STVO's are mildly "overbought" here
2010-09-28 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the VTO's remain the bigger problem for now
2010-09-28 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing a continued "overbought" condition
2010-09-28 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .70 - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/TRIN_1yr.html
2010-09-28 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2010-09-28 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a bit on the "oversold" side
2010-09-28 17:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this makes it difficult for the bears to mount any kind of consistency in their pattern structure
2010-09-28 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also makes an 80 point loss a "flash in the pan"
2010-09-28 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN 1.42 (better)
2010-09-28 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88 (neutral)
2010-09-28 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.18
2010-09-28 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2010-09-28 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting better...but not really enough to call a bottom
2010-09-28 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-09-28 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like last week
2010-09-28 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to look for choppy behavior near term
2010-09-28 17:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market goes about its business of attempting to digest the gains of September
2010-09-28 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...
2010-09-28 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the way...
2010-09-28 17:40:12 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What does "Open 10" mean?
2010-09-28 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wasn't such a bad month after all
2010-09-28 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 takes the daily TRIN numbers and smooths out the average over a 10 day period
2010-09-28 17:41:03 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-09-28 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was invented by Peter Eliades back in the 80's
2010-09-28 17:41:25 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Ah yeah, heard about it
2010-09-28 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that we can measure the amount of selling in a more appropriate manner that would a greater weight to the short term directional trend of market
2010-09-28 17:41:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: He made a new TRIN as well, right?
2010-09-28 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you click on the link at the top of any of the pages at DP
2010-09-28 17:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Carl gives you a primer on everything
2010-09-28 17:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what he doesn't do
2010-09-28 17:42:14 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-09-28 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we do here
2010-09-28 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to take these basic tools and cohesively come up the best plan of action based on direction money flow either going in or out of the market at any given time
2010-09-28 17:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more to the point
2010-09-28 17:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the velocity in which this money is moving
2010-09-28 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing this helps us in determining not only probable direction, but also how far we're likely to get there
2010-09-28 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you will find
2010-09-28 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the A/D line is the only indicator that measures money supply
2010-09-28 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that
2010-09-28 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the specific supply that is available to move into the stock market
2010-09-28 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else really matters
2010-09-28 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: M2...M1...this is economic dribble
2010-09-28 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they mean nothing as it relates to the direction of prices themselves
2010-09-28 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we look at the direction of the A/D line
2010-09-28 17:45:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: Fib, could you look at the 6 month AD and UD lines for XLE and XLI. I see significant bearish divergence for both breadth and volume vs. price looking at the data from June to now. I've seen this type of divergence useful in the past. What do you think?
2010-09-28 17:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then measure its velocity and trend and come up with the best possible blueprint to work with
2010-09-28 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: um...OK...
2010-09-28 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Tonny
2010-09-28 17:46:22 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks. I am short XLE
2010-09-28 17:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this information can be found at ETF investment - http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/rank_breadth_advance_decline_avg_d.php
2010-09-28 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DP has the XLE MCO and MCSUM both for breadth and volume
2010-09-28 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on what it's showing
2010-09-28 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short is a good play
2010-09-28 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2010-09-28 17:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the general market is very positive right now
2010-09-28 17:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you're not likely to see a downtrend develop
2010-09-28 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more chop than anything else...with a bearish bias
2010-09-28 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2010-09-28 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will likely be to the downside, but won't hold too long
2010-09-28 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to keep everything as relevant as possible
2010-09-28 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to Doc...one moment
2010-09-28 17:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLI Breadth - http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=XLI&c=breadth_advance_decline_avg_d
2010-09-28 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks flat
2010-09-28 17:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough divergence to be a worry
2010-09-28 17:49:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: Check out the DP one
2010-09-28 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh....you mean the MCSUM? MCO?
2010-09-28 17:50:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: No Ad and UD lines. For XLI, don't confirm the move above 30 in June or 31 since August
2010-09-28 17:50:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: AD and UD triple top with price moving to higher highs, that sort of thing
2010-09-28 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: welll...the chart that ETF has shows little in the way of breadth divergence for the XLI
2010-09-28 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2010-09-28 17:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2010-09-28 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be important
2010-09-28 17:51:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: AD and UD still at or under Aug highs
2010-09-28 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the general market is pretty strong right now
2010-09-28 17:51:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: Price noticeably higher
2010-09-28 17:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but is it worth a short?
2010-09-28 17:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think so
2010-09-28 17:51:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Just asking
2010-09-28 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just answering
2010-09-28 17:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-28 17:51:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: Check out XLE, much more striking
2010-09-28 17:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ok...one moment
2010-09-28 17:52:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: Slap you across the face divergent
2010-09-28 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=XLE&c=breadth_advance_decline_avg_d
2010-09-28 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot of participation there
2010-09-28 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2010-09-28 17:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO and MCSUM are not what I call bullish either
2010-09-28 17:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm not surprised
2010-09-28 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my problem though
2010-09-28 17:53:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: True. but looking at the AD and UD line, XLE doesn't belong at the June and August highs
2010-09-28 17:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it's probably better to say that there's been a lack of group participation with the XLE group of stocks than it would be divergence
2010-09-28 17:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope - and it's probably doing so with a handful of larger weighted issues in the index
2010-09-28 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably...
2010-09-28 17:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a guess...
2010-09-28 17:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those stocks that are in the Dow?
2010-09-28 17:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's where I would look for the culprit
2010-09-28 17:55:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: I don't know the reason for the divergence
2010-09-28 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we know
2010-09-28 17:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't know why
2010-09-28 17:55:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: Just thought I'd bring it to the groups attn and see what you thought
2010-09-28 17:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for that
2010-09-28 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE has been the weakest sector for about a month now
2010-09-28 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI
2010-09-28 17:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2010-09-28 17:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was leading the charge higher in July
2010-09-28 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless the "industrials" show some more muscle here
2010-09-28 17:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to wonder how much higher the Dow can go?
2010-09-28 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2010-09-28 17:57:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: For XLI, a quick drop to 30 would be in line with the AD and UD lines, to get them in sync
2010-09-28 17:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are the Dow Industrials really industrial stocks?
2010-09-28 17:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed Doc
2010-09-28 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: definitely a trading range
2010-09-28 17:57:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think XLI has some transport issues too?
2010-09-28 17:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shouldn't have
2010-09-28 17:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2010-09-28 17:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: top 10
2010-09-28 17:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
3M Company Common Stock MMM 5.72
Boeing Company (The) Common Sto BA 4.93
Caterpillar, Inc. Common Stock CAT 3.98
Deere & Company Common Stock DE 2.62
Emerson Electric Company Common EMR 3.45
General Electric Company Common GE 11.29
Honeywell International Inc. Co HON 3.12
Union Pacific Corporation Commo UNP 3.79
United Parcel Service, Inc. Com UPS 5.68
United Technologies Corporation UTX 6.23
2010-09-28 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's your answer
2010-09-28 17:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 6 companies in the Dow
2010-09-28 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GE the heavy weight
2010-09-28 18:00:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Boeing is in there too
2010-09-28 18:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep..and Union Pacific which is transportation
2010-09-28 18:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Industrial Materials is 75% of the total ETF
2010-09-28 18:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be sure
2010-09-28 18:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are problems...and why we really need a chance to regroup
2010-09-28 18:01:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: Anyways, these AD and UD lines might support the idea of a pause for a bit
2010-09-28 18:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who would had thought that all of September would be positive?
2010-09-28 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2010-09-28 18:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-09-28 18:01:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: Nope. Thanks.
2010-09-28 18:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to look for choppy behavior
2010-09-28 18:02:14 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. Thanks!
2010-09-28 18:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a pretty good chance that breadth of market will start to trend lower as soon as tomorrow
2010-09-28 18:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....everyone have a great couple of days
2010-09-28 18:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet again on Thursday
2010-09-28 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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