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Posts: 4,918
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-09-27 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-09-27 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-09-27 16:02:54 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Hi, Hope you are well
2012-09-27 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rushing around...but I think my head is still on straight
2012-09-27 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no complaints...better it be busy than slow
2012-09-27 16:03:33 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: That is always a good thing
2012-09-27 16:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-09-27 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing, of course, is that we got our technical bounce
2012-09-27 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that keeps us on the mid October topping idea
2012-09-27 16:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have to do one more thing and I'll be ready...if anyone has a question, please ask
2012-09-27 16:05:46 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Do you think the bounce is done?
2012-09-27 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have a good idea when we look at the data...but probably not based on the rhythm of the day
2012-09-27 16:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2012-09-27 16:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready to go
2012-09-27 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll see how she looks
2012-09-27 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was our expectation from yesterday
2012-09-27 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2012-09-27 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now resides at the -28 level
2012-09-27 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-09-27 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have a full snapback to the zero line on the 10% component
2012-09-27 16:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our obligatory bounce off the zero line today on the 5%
2012-09-27 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on this data
2012-09-27 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the initial bounce is minimally complete
2012-09-27 16:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we're not likely to move up and through the component zero line right away
2012-09-27 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE breadth MCO is just shy of the -25 natural resistance level
2012-09-27 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with respect to the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-09-27 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed today right on the rising bottoms line connecting the June and September lows
2012-09-27 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's really a roll the dice situation here near term
2012-09-27 16:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if we break below this rising bottoms line
2012-09-27 16:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will do so with the MCO itself moving lower
2012-09-27 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely
2012-09-27 16:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to lower lows to match the position of the volume MCO we saw yesterday as already being below the July lows
2012-09-27 16:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2012-09-27 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a turn up from this rising bottoms line will be accompanied by the 10% component moving back above its zero line
2012-09-27 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-09-27 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll likely see a full retracement to the MCO zero line with this same support
2012-09-27 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the composite looks
2012-09-27 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also bounced higher today with a reading of -17
2012-09-27 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're seeing better strength right now between the composite and the commons
2012-09-27 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has also slows the rate of descent in the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-09-27 16:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's approaching the +750 level
2012-09-27 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we surmised yesterday
2012-09-27 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had looked as though that the bears might had been running out of steam
2012-09-27 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pushing prices lower on several news events
2012-09-27 16:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components of the composite MCO
2012-09-27 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we did get our bounce off the zero line as well
2012-09-27 16:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which continues to keep the price action in corrective mode at this time
2012-09-27 16:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...unlike the common only breadth MCSUM that is at trend support
2012-09-27 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite did break below this line yesterday
2012-09-27 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we are in a position to hold this trend line support
2012-09-27 16:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite MCO's components are complimenting that this idea can indeed be done
2012-09-27 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: far...the bulls continue to call the shots here overall
2012-09-27 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be up to the bears to belly up and help make their point near term, or once again, they're likely to get run over again
2012-09-27 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of further interest
2012-09-27 16:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we did bounce off of horizontal price support today on the daily chart
2012-09-27 16:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NASDAQ, we did the same there too
2012-09-27 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO did close today at a -9
2012-09-27 16:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're close there to completing a snapback to the zero line
2012-09-27 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components there
2012-09-27 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both are back above their zero line
2012-09-27 16:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remain on a negative crossover
2012-09-27 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally...we're back to a corrective situation again
2012-09-27 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any follow through in the next couple of days to today's reversal would tend to re-initiate the uptrend
2012-09-27 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also acknowledge that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM remains nicely above its rising bottoms line
2012-09-27 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is all the more reason that we shouldn't be looking to sell outright...but to remain vigilant in watching how things are going to sort out here near term
2012-09-27 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice spike low in the NDX breadth MCO
2012-09-27 16:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and based on the position of the NDX breadth MCSUM with today's reading of +11
2012-09-27 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for tomorrow would be for continued firmness in the flow of money so that both the NDX breadth MCO and MCSUM will settle in and around their zero lines for the weekend
2012-09-27 16:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, would fit in to our revised blueprint of Wednesday suggesting a choppy period probably right through the middle part of next week
2012-09-27 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm...something's different here
2012-09-27 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wasn't the SPX breadth MCO below its July lows yesterday?
2012-09-27 16:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2012-09-27 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me read the scripts from moment
2012-09-27 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, I didn't give the reading
2012-09-27 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we were below the July lows
2012-09-27 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder what the volume data looks moment
2012-09-27 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...that hasn't changed
2012-09-27 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well, this now puts a slightly different light on things...let me check the OEX and Dow
2012-09-27 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...for the first time that I can remember
2012-09-27 16:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have adjusted numbers on the SPX and OEX
2012-09-27 16:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me check the MID
2012-09-27 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that still took out the July lows
2012-09-27 16:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the problems of late
2012-09-27 16:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the data coming from the NYSE has been slow
2012-09-27 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there have been some errors in the data over the last 2 weeks
2012-09-27 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could had been one of those times
2012-09-27 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-27 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a step back
2012-09-27 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take a look at the SPX and OEX with a different eye
2012-09-27 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after only challenging the July lows yesterday
2012-09-27 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO bounced higher today
2012-09-27 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2012-09-27 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason why this makes a big difference is in the trading plan where it was shared to unload anything SPX related on today's bounce
2012-09-27 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our not moving below the July should have HELD that position
2012-09-27 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and had a trailing stop
2012-09-27 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-09-27 16:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you did sell on today's bounce...nicely done!
2012-09-27 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we see continued strength tomorrow, you can always go back in
2012-09-27 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCO components
2012-09-27 16:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% snapped back to its zero line today
2012-09-27 16:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 10% is still on a negative crossover
2012-09-27 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall, a sell signal
2012-09-27 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the SPX breadth MCSUM still in positive territory, this is more of a hold signal then anything else
2012-09-27 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note tonight that the SPX breadth MCSUM is now 19 data points of snapping back down to the +250 level
2012-09-27 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see some continued firmness on Friday as this market internals attempt to find support
2012-09-27 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2012-09-27 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is our 6th successful attempt at trying to hold at around the -60 level on this MCO
2012-09-27 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaching the previous low, however, does suggest that it's going to take a week or two to build a new platform from where prices can rally
2012-09-27 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the situation isn't as dire as was once assumed yesterday with the lows that were closer to a -80 if I remember correctly
2012-09-27 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check again yesterday's transcripts
2012-09-27 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no direct mention
2012-09-27 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's move forward
2012-09-27 16:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a life and death thing anyway
2012-09-27 16:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also found good support at just below the -50 level
2012-09-27 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that the Dow breadth MCSUM is approaching the +500 level
2012-09-27 16:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a continuation of today's bounce near term as the MCSUM pattern approaches its natural area of support
2012-09-27 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO had a "typical" bounce from deeply "oversold" levels
2012-09-27 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming to a stop right at the -50 level
2012-09-27 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too the MID breadth MCSUM should find some temporary support around the +500 level
2012-09-27 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's current reading is a +503
2012-09-27 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a robust rally on Friday would give us a "full stop" in this declining sequence in this MCSUM
2012-09-27 16:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile, the SML breadth MCO bounced at just below its -50 level today
2012-09-27 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both components now back above their zero line suggesting corrective activity
2012-09-27 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM remains nicely above its rising bottoms line at this time
2012-09-27 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a "perfect technical world" bounce was had in the TM breadth MCO
2012-09-27 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lo and behold...the TM breadth MCSUM pattern is just now approaching its rising bottoms line here as well
2012-09-27 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the sectors look
2012-09-27 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...did you hear the number on big ticket items this morning?
2012-09-27 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew...down 12.5%
2012-09-27 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the street was expecting -4%?
2012-09-27 16:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still the market rallied
2012-09-27 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of those days in which can frustrate a fundamentalist
2012-09-27 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and turn them to the "dark side" of technical analysis
2012-09-27 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for us tech's
2012-09-27 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another great example that the market doesn't really run on news reports or economic indicators
2012-09-27 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it runs on money
2012-09-27 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we do what we do
2012-09-27 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO remains on a sell signal
2012-09-27 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having only halved the highly "oversold" readings we saw yesterday
2012-09-27 16:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM remains nicely above its rising bottoms line
2012-09-27 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the best the bears or bulls are likely to get here with this basket of stocks is sideways
2012-09-27 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is now neutral
2012-09-27 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components indicating a bullish bias
2012-09-27 16:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLP breadth MCSUM
2012-09-27 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can that neither side is thrilled with their opinions
2012-09-27 16:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall, the bulls remain in control
2012-09-27 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice bearish divergence in place now on the XLE breadth MCO and MCSUM
2012-09-27 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here it looks like that we've been capped on the upside
2012-09-27 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should be looking for continued price decay there for a while
2012-09-27 16:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the bulls attempt to construct some sort of platform from which prices can make another go of it to the upside
2012-09-27 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's also a classic example of a 5th wave blow off
2012-09-27 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how after the MCO moved below its second wave lows
2012-09-27 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering came in to push prices to higher highs
2012-09-27 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how do we know it was short covering?
2012-09-27 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because there was very little texture to the pattern
2012-09-27 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it spiked into a top
2012-09-27 16:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then collapsed
2012-09-27 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a great example of what should happen if we're also about to do a 5th wave in the broader equity markets per our discussion of yesterday
2012-09-27 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that we got this forecasted momentum push that provide bearish divergence in the MCSUM
2012-09-27 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so together
2012-09-27 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a better than even bet that the XLE is likely to chop around for a bit
2012-09-27 17:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mainly because....?
2012-09-27 17:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is on one side of the zero line...and the MCSUM is on the other
2012-09-27 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get two opposing forces like this pushing and pulling like this, prices can't trend
2012-09-27 17:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we chop
2012-09-27 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF data is an interesting animal
2012-09-27 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we got our confirmation of new highs two weeks ago
2012-09-27 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then heavy selling came in again
2012-09-27 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2012-09-27 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is more conditioning than anything else
2012-09-27 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this sector can't make new highs
2012-09-27 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we get both the MCO and MCSUM confirming new highs like we currently have
2012-09-27 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after any short term corrections
2012-09-27 17:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of further gains is still pretty good
2012-09-27 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, for anything, to provide bearish divergence to this particular price sequence
2012-09-27 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be too surprised at how shallow the price retracement will turn out to be
2012-09-27 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...snapback complete
2012-09-27 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what the bulls will do next
2012-09-27 17:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV remains very strong here
2012-09-27 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV breadth MCO holding zero line support
2012-09-27 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today pushing the XLV breadth MCSUM to higher highs
2012-09-27 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI data is pretty much neutral here
2012-09-27 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the Dow Transports are showing no follow through to the downside
2012-09-27 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and holding the 4900 level nicely as we expected last week
2012-09-27 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's going to be a very big move in the transports soon
2012-09-27 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the pattern is tightly coiled right now with respect to its EMA's
2012-09-27 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure looks like capitulation on the chart
2012-09-27 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan and Korea up .5% at the open
2012-09-27 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had asked the question in a thread about capitulation
2012-09-27 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no one thought it was
2012-09-27 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sighting fundamentals instead of technicals
2012-09-27 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which I
2012-09-27 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the above average volume into the lows of the range IS pattern capitulation
2012-09-27 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...this is a sector to watch for upside leadership
2012-09-27 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that no one wants thinks it can
2012-09-27 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB data is also fairly neutral here
2012-09-27 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete there as well on the price chart
2012-09-27 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another classic deeply "oversold" bounce on the XLK breadth MCO
2012-09-27 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settling right at the -50 level
2012-09-27 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually we see one of two things under these conditions
2012-09-27 17:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we either continue to or toward the zero line or we pull back for a day or so as the last of the unwilling sellers close their positions and then we continue to the zero line
2012-09-27 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the intermediate term direction of prices
2012-09-27 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would want to see the pullback to create the texture in the pattern that we all know and love
2012-09-27 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in this case, with the XLK breadth MCSUM now approaching the +250 level
2012-09-27 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we've been trending higher for a while
2012-09-27 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too out of character to see a continuation to the zero line tomorrow in the MCO
2012-09-27 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2012-09-27 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we are at the end of the month and quarter
2012-09-27 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and every money manager wants to have a good snapshot to show to their clients
2012-09-27 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moving finally to the XLU data
2012-09-27 17:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is as picture perfect as it gets
2012-09-27 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that the 36 level has indeed provided the support that was indicated by the MCSUM
2012-09-27 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLU did move back above its zero line when it needed too
2012-09-27 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have great texture there on the pattern
2012-09-27 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next technical expectation there is for a zero line snapback
2012-09-27 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after that
2012-09-27 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will be back in control
2012-09-27 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is still a sector worth accumulating
2012-09-27 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-27 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our technical bounce today
2012-09-27 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have indications that we could see a continuation of this reversal on Friday based on the locations of the various MCSUM's and their 250 multiples and trend lines
2012-09-27 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the overall expectation of being pretty much neutral overall going into the weekend
2012-09-27 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then letting next week be our guide going into the middle part of the month
2012-09-27 17:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do break these same MCSUM support levels, it will probably be a nasty day on Friday because of these same breaks
2012-09-27 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the volume MCO's also bounced today and many are at around the -25 or -50 level now
2012-09-27 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have a good indication of how things are likely to go tomorrow in the first hour
2012-09-27 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lethargic or soft open will probably mean a pullback in the MCO's
2012-09-27 17:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything robust would indicate a zero line snapback completion going into the weekend
2012-09-27 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral
2012-09-27 17:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "oversold"
2012-09-27 17:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call the VTO's on the bullish side of neutral
2012-09-27 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning they are showing trending characteristics
2012-09-27 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll probably not see a tradable price top until the VTO's move to "overbought"
2012-09-27 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN At .66
2012-09-27 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2012-09-27 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold" now
2012-09-27 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .79
2012-09-27 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2012-09-27 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .74
2012-09-27 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it looks like we had some fresh buying today
2012-09-27 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing too frothy
2012-09-27 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2012-09-27 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-27 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short is really not where you want to be here unless you're playing hit and run
2012-09-27 17:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to sit on your hands if anything else
2012-09-27 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beside that...we are on a hold...waiting for more information
2012-09-27 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check what we need for a zero line MCO tomorrow
2012-09-27 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need 1133 net advancing issues for a zero line snapback on the NYSE breadth MCO
2012-09-27 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change of zero = +84
2012-09-27 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-09-27 17:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get another day of 3:1 plurality tomorrow
2012-09-27 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices move to higher highs
2012-09-27 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be enough to go back to buy mode
2012-09-27 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a 20 point move in the cash SPX
2012-09-27 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and about 150 Dow points
2012-09-27 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's NYSE plurality was a +1524
2012-09-27 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the A/D line
2012-09-27 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2012-09-27 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD bounced off its 39 day EMA today
2012-09-27 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD bounced off its 19 day EMA
2012-09-27 17:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both are below their previous highs
2012-09-27 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line remains in a bullish configuration
2012-09-27 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as that remains
2012-09-27 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we MUST give any benefit of any doubt to the bulls
2012-09-27 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2012-09-27 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that also means
2012-09-27 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will tend to be on the long side because of this
2012-09-27 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things go tomorrow
2012-09-27 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-09-27 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FYI...the October chat schedule is now up in the transcripts area
2012-09-27 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have a 3 chat week the week of 10/15
2012-09-27 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a 1 chat day the week of 10/22
2012-09-27 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else will be two sessions for that week
2012-09-27 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments??
2012-09-27 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off
2012-09-27 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-09-27 17:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll get together next Tuesday
2012-09-27 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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