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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-09-27 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-09-27 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-09-27 16:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone have any Dramamine?
2011-09-27 16:01:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-09-27 16:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: want to take a moment and welcome an old friend to the chat room - Chris (SlateDrake)
2011-09-27 16:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what an amazing 5 days!
2011-09-27 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-09-27 16:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I have a question...
2011-09-27 16:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone have an idea of how the market looks right now?
2011-09-27 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bullish?
2011-09-27 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bearish?
2011-09-27 16:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your evidence
2011-09-27 16:03:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: choppy
2011-09-27 16:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea
2011-09-27 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but last we met, we had pattern breakdowns in the internals and the NYA
2011-09-27 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now what?
2011-09-27 16:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we bottom?
2011-09-27 16:04:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: still have tops below tops
2011-09-27 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-09-27 16:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're bearish here?
2011-09-27 16:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have things changed from last Thursday to the point of a new plan?
2011-09-27 16:05:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: till I see otherwise-but picking a spot is a different animal
2011-09-27 16:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...I haven't seen today's data as yet
2011-09-27 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I will make a couple of comments
2011-09-27 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the ideas that we threw around on Thursday
2011-09-27 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that we should had seen an attempt at some firmness on Friday
2011-09-27 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it would tend to be choppy
2011-09-27 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we pretty much got that
2011-09-27 16:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then Monday came
2011-09-27 16:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just about every breadth MCO snapped back towards their zero lines
2011-09-27 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, is our technical expectation after a pattern break down
2011-09-27 16:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2011-09-27 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remained under the zero line on many of the breadth MCO's
2011-09-27 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: creating a vacuum
2011-09-27 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things we also threw out there
2011-09-27 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if would be exceedingly dangerous for the market to rally toward the 1200 area after such a break down
2011-09-27 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as of yesterday
2011-09-27 16:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as of the close today
2011-09-27 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we appear to have again have a set up similar to the end of July
2011-09-27 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a crash like event could take place
2011-09-27 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term problem with this idea here
2011-09-27 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that today's ISEE data came in at around 65
2011-09-27 16:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bearish speculators are still trying to pick a top here with both hands
2011-09-27 16:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the SPX hit the 1190 area today
2011-09-27 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern moved sharply lower as if we had exhausted ourselves
2011-09-27 16:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I made a intraday statement on this over on the TW Facebook page about this
2011-09-27 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so depending on what we see here
2011-09-27 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be we're in for a "do or die" moment
2011-09-27 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: earlier in the day NYSE breadth plurality was something like 13:1 to the good
2011-09-27 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how we settled
2011-09-27 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2511/575
2011-09-27 16:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 5:1
2011-09-27 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too shabby
2011-09-27 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-09-27 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line remains under pressure with respect to its EMA's
2011-09-27 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of days provided a nice bounce off the 200 day EMA
2011-09-27 16:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're up against the 19 day EMA (10% Trend)
2011-09-27 16:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that many of the major indices closed at or below their 20 day EMA today
2011-09-27 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after piercing above them intraday
2011-09-27 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we might see some positive MCO numbers tonight
2011-09-27 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components are probably not going to confirm the move
2011-09-27 16:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we could be primed and ready for a whole lot of hurt
2011-09-27 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how things look and get DP up
2011-09-27 16:14:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I saw gold dropping first, and thought it was an indicator
2011-09-27 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that gold moves to the rhythm of a whole different drummer
2011-09-27 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it leads the direction of equities by over a year
2011-09-27 16:16:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, but it looked like someone "backed off the pedal" - intraday
2011-09-27 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just because it might echo what may be going on in the here and now is not always an indication of a problem
2011-09-27 16:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did they ever
2011-09-27 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically, gold has been holding Fib support levels from .618 to .786 with the advance from July
2011-09-27 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of what we see there is to generate cash
2011-09-27 16:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the longer term fundamentals keep gold as a strong buy on any large dips
2011-09-27 16:17:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was looking at it from the sense that it gets liquid money-and the tap might be slowing intraday
2011-09-27 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea
2011-09-27 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that too
2011-09-27 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to put it bluntly
2011-09-27 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financial markets are very sick right now
2011-09-27 16:18:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm not bearish gold, after say one more test of the trendline
2011-09-27 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we touch the line yesterday?
2011-09-27 16:19:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, but were getting fairly close
2011-09-27 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually
2011-09-27 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked at the chart
2011-09-27 16:19:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my line is around low to mid 15's
2011-09-27 16:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 200 day EMA held the pattern
2011-09-27 16:19:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2011-09-27 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need an opinion here
2011-09-27 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily gold, candle form, is that a hammer yesterday?
2011-09-27 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wondering about the body of the stick with respect to Friday's stick
2011-09-27 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it is
2011-09-27 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's one heck of a hammer
2011-09-27 16:21:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: close, but.....
2011-09-27 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with high volume to accompany the stick
2011-09-27 16:22:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: however, any trouble in Europe could send it to Mars
2011-09-27 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...not my area of expertise
2011-09-27 16:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fundamentals?
2011-09-27 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...
2011-09-27 16:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heresy!
2011-09-27 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-27 16:22:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fear...
2011-09-27 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you mean there's trouble in Europe?
2011-09-27 16:23:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you know I don't do fundamentals, LOL
2011-09-27 16:23:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-09-27 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-27 16:23:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: possibly trouble, lol
2011-09-27 16:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gee...I thought everything was "all better" because a PM or two told us so!
2011-09-27 16:24:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seems 7 or so forgot to comment, lol
2011-09-27 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last two days was not a technically sound rally
2011-09-27 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see yesterday's TRIN?
2011-09-27 16:24:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, today early was no piker either
2011-09-27 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .31
2011-09-27 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is about as much short covering one can take in one day on the NYSE
2011-09-27 16:25:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I saw naz in the 20's
2011-09-27 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...but settled near .40 (I think)
2011-09-27 16:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-27 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look around and see what we got
2011-09-27 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to power higher today
2011-09-27 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now well above its zero line
2011-09-27 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we feared at the beginning of the chat
2011-09-27 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO MCO components have now barely reached their zero line
2011-09-27 16:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would again suggest corrective activity
2011-09-27 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOT the start of anything to build upon to the upside
2011-09-27 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for things to look better for the bulls
2011-09-27 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to continue to keep up the buy side pressure so that this MCO can move above its declining tops line seen on the chart
2011-09-27 16:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2011-09-27 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM will need to move above its -500 resistance level
2011-09-27 16:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it found snapback resistance last week
2011-09-27 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind
2011-09-27 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we continue to have very little in the way of texture on this MCO
2011-09-27 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so neither side has much in the way of control of the direction for prices at this time
2011-09-27 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is reflected of the volatility of the last 5 trading days
2011-09-27 16:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we rallied right back to where we started before the FED announcment last week - 1190 cash
2011-09-27 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-09-27 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both bull and bear have had a tough time holding any profits they might have accumulated
2011-09-27 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless
2011-09-27 16:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one was playing hit and run
2011-09-27 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there the profits have been quite lucrative
2011-09-27 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the NYSE breadth MCO and its components
2011-09-27 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unfortunately for the bulls
2011-09-27 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved to a lower low in the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM yesterday before turning higher today
2011-09-27 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this suggests that we'll have to tack on another few days to a week before we're likely to see a bottom
2011-09-27 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so overall...we really have to be careful of a small ledge here on the MCSUM
2011-09-27 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a positive note
2011-09-27 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although today's action closed below the mid range of the daily bar on the NYA
2011-09-27 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did close back within the previous trading range
2011-09-27 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2011-09-27 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this close back within the range now puts the price indices back into sync again
2011-09-27 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where last week the NYA was the only index to move below the range
2011-09-27 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we're back to starting from the same pattern
2011-09-27 16:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-09-27 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless the composite NYSE MCO can move back the +50 level quickly
2011-09-27 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will be highly sensitive to any bad news that may come about
2011-09-27 16:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2011-09-27 16:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the PERCEPTION of bad news
2011-09-27 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also settled near the +25 level
2011-09-27 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a move above both the +50 level and the declining tops line will be of utmost importance to the bulls for fear of collapse
2011-09-27 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here being with both the NYA and the NASDAQ breadth MCO's
2011-09-27 16:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we already broke below the mid August lows on Thursday
2011-09-27 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will need to be either tested, or a continuing base forming will need to be accomplished before the price patterns will have any chance of moving above their trading range highs
2011-09-27 16:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now technically speaking
2011-09-27 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the breadth MCSUM's remain "oversold" enough where the path of lesser influence, on an intermediate term basis, rests with the bulls
2011-09-27 16:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we can also see
2011-09-27 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of breadth expansion in either direction is more troubling for the bulls than the bears given these same "oversold" levels on the MCSUM's
2011-09-27 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now traversed from being minimally "oversold" at -50 to being minimally "overbought" just above the +50 level in less than 3 trading days
2011-09-27 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a great example of the market having a high degree of whiplash as money moves sharply out and then moves just as sharply back in again
2011-09-27 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is NOT healthy
2011-09-27 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you have no stability from where to build a trending structure in either direction
2011-09-27 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given that the market's default is that of moving lower
2011-09-27 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take as much of a push to generate a higher percentage move in this same default direction
2011-09-27 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2011-09-27 16:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have to fight for everything they gain
2011-09-27 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bears can kind of sit back and let nature take its course (as it were)
2011-09-27 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also now the NDX breadth MCSUM now has a reading of -73
2011-09-27 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're getting really close now to one side taking the baton and running with it in and around the zero line
2011-09-27 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's also give the bulls some additional credit here
2011-09-27 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we did break above the NDX MCSUM declining tops line last week
2011-09-27 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the decline last week was used as a snapback towards this same breakout before moving to higher highs today
2011-09-27 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this does need to be respected for what it MAY suggest
2011-09-27 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2011-09-27 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have had their way now since the mid August period
2011-09-27 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are technically due to take a rest as we have previously discussed
2011-09-27 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a grander scale then
2011-09-27 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding zero line resistance here
2011-09-27 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then moving to lower while prices move to a lower low
2011-09-27 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would create some nice longer term bullish divergence for our anticipated bottom next month
2011-09-27 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it's really a process here
2011-09-27 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the leaders in the growth area are showing their muscle early in this same constructional sequence
2011-09-27 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO has also traversed 100 data points in a short period of time
2011-09-27 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is sort of like giving the patient Demerol one day, and then giving him Speed the next
2011-09-27 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the obvious erratic behavior that would come from it
2011-09-27 16:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good bar today
2011-09-27 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on all of these charts
2011-09-27 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does leave it open for at least another attempt to move above the 1190 area
2011-09-27 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pistons here of the engine are still looking weak
2011-09-27 16:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2011-09-27 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another option here
2011-09-27 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is continuing to just chop sideways and let time take care of the current consolidation
2011-09-27 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next move down is really going to important to that idea
2011-09-27 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if we hold again
2011-09-27 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the improving MCSUM's
2011-09-27 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could very well turn out to be a bottom from where we rally OUT of instead of one in which we go DOWN into
2011-09-27 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the angle we haven't touched upon here
2011-09-27 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we did fail late afternoon after we rallied up to the lower area of what was our bear flag formations
2011-09-27 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe that's the pattern with a heavier weighting to our analysis
2011-09-27 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know soon enough because if it was we should continue to decline fast and hard from here
2011-09-27 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would, or course, would compliment the vacuum we've created over the last couple of days
2011-09-27 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely no structure with the MID breadth MCO
2011-09-27 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but moving to the SML breadth MCO and we now have sloppy bull divergence in place here with last Thursday's lower close than that of 8/8
2011-09-27 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can take out the double spike tops there that would trigger our divergence that would be constructive
2011-09-27 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO looks like many other breadth MCO's tonight
2011-09-27 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a SuperBall would have lower highs on each successive bounce
2011-09-27 17:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-27 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...we remain in a price consolidation
2011-09-27 17:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some patterns moving net sideways
2011-09-27 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while others have already broken bear flags, with the last couple of days providing snapback resistance to these same pattern structures
2011-09-27 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-09-27 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the really really need to keep the pressure on near term
2011-09-27 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if they don't
2011-09-27 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much all of what's been gained in the last two days will be lost just as quickly...and even more than that
2011-09-27 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so whatever the catalyst may be
2011-09-27 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a very dangerous market near term
2011-09-27 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could go either way
2011-09-27 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds continue to suggest a downside break...with 50/50 odds of a similar decline to what we saw in early August
2011-09-27 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not with the same amplitude
2011-09-27 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be quite scary
2011-09-27 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even dire
2011-09-27 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, I guess, is what we've been always looking for now for the last two months to fully finish out the pattern
2011-09-27 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here really is volume
2011-09-27 17:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move to the volume McClellan's next
2011-09-27 17:05:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there are any comments or questions
2011-09-27 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then let's move on
2011-09-27 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO is pretty much in sync with its breadth cousin
2011-09-27 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good thing as far as consistency is concerned
2011-09-27 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...the two are so closely related right now that its eerie in their comparisons
2011-09-27 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is the component MCO volume data
2011-09-27 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the NASDAQ volume and component MCO are leading breadth to the upside here
2011-09-27 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we want to see for two reasons
2011-09-27 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first, of course, this is ideally what we want to see while we're created a tradable low
2011-09-27 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also this will tend to keep any further selloffs from turning into more of a rout
2011-09-27 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the major selling is out of the way
2011-09-27 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that the weak hands have yet to reallocate their portfolios
2011-09-27 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good example of this construction that we continue to talk about
2011-09-27 17:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with the NDX volume MCSUM
2011-09-27 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with its bottom above a bottom formation already intact
2011-09-27 17:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and slightly leading its breadth cousin to the upside
2011-09-27 17:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in the overall scheme of things
2011-09-27 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are seeing evidence here and there that we are getting really close to some sort of bottom here
2011-09-27 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just that we're not fully inline as yet to turn things around in an important way
2011-09-27 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anybody wonder how much of this recent buying may be part of the FED's "twist"?
2011-09-27 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if they really have that kind of influence these days
2011-09-27 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...it's a collective push by many
2011-09-27 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...so many of these volume MCO's are near the +50 level right now
2011-09-27 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much all they can do given the current situation
2011-09-27 17:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further push is going to tend to be fresh buying here
2011-09-27 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way that might happen is that the problems are "forgiven"
2011-09-27 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this political push and shove is not very healthy
2011-09-27 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the analogy we touched upon before
2011-09-27 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like feeling sick to your stomach and trying not to puke
2011-09-27 17:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-09-27 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing if you did you would feel much better if you did
2011-09-27 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the volume McClellan's look indecisive here
2011-09-27 17:18:46 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I read that SP500 October- November PUTs as well as VIX were in unusually high demand.  Some expect therefore lower lows, but others seeing this a contrary indicator expect the market to rally until these evaporate, and the decline to come after that, if it will have to come.  What do you say?    
2011-09-27 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some have structure...some have broken their structures and in need of a reset
2011-09-27 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that thought process worked pretty good for the September options, didn't it?
2011-09-27 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and before you came in tonight
2011-09-27 17:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I mentioned that the ISEE numbers were again at historic lows today - 65
2011-09-27 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is not doubt whatsoever that there are ton of traders out there that believe that there is no way out but down from here
2011-09-27 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and every time they load up, the market blows them out
2011-09-27 17:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday we had a ISEE reading of 118
2011-09-27 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so these same specs were buying calls on Friday
2011-09-27 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think the number yesterday was around 90
2011-09-27 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was a split opinion here
2011-09-27 17:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like the horse and the cart
2011-09-27 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is leading who?
2011-09-27 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and which is making the market erratic enough to shake off these same specs?
2011-09-27 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market wants to go lower
2011-09-27 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it can't
2011-09-27 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not when there is a greater majority playing that same direction
2011-09-27 17:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-09-27 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to fully shake these specs
2011-09-27 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has again rallied off 1120 support for the 4th time
2011-09-27 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooner or later
2011-09-27 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to decline to 1120
2011-09-27 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get those who have been conditioned to buy calls at those lows
2011-09-27 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN the market can pull the rug out
2011-09-27 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2011-09-27 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just move sideways and let time decay do its magic on those same option players
2011-09-27 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have all these traders playing volatility as if its a price chart
2011-09-27 17:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's that all about?
2011-09-27 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you're playing an emotional generated product with an emotional bias in what is an emotional indicator???
2011-09-27 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how does anyone make money on that one on a consistent basis?
2011-09-27 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're taking out insurance
2011-09-27 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-09-27 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that makes sense
2011-09-27 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but outright?
2011-09-27 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no wonder the market has no direction
2011-09-27 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many products to split a hair it would seem
2011-09-27 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good luck to those who do
2011-09-27 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there's little in the way of skill with those kind of trades
2011-09-27 17:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 10 day put/call ratios
2011-09-27 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that the option players are more neutral now than they have been in a while
2011-09-27 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...on to the volume oscillators
2011-09-27 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the CVI suggested a price low with two trading days on Thrusday
2011-09-27 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the indices are in full sync at the +25 resistance level
2011-09-27 17:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "oversold"
2011-09-27 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I wonder what's pushing prices higher then?
2011-09-27 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a volume oscillator remains stagnant
2011-09-27 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it usually means that any money moving around is just sloshing from one position to another
2011-09-27 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no new conviction either way
2011-09-27 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case then
2011-09-27 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering would be the primary reason for the last two days
2011-09-27 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which goes back to conditioning
2011-09-27 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tried moving below the 1120 level 3 times before, and this time the participants just covered when there wasn't any follow through on Friday
2011-09-27 17:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it just snowballed with Sunday nights open
2011-09-27 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (no news was good news)
2011-09-27 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are on the mixed side...but basically neutral here
2011-09-27 17:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this after a 75 point intraday rally in the SPX?
2011-09-27 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew!
2011-09-27 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like bouncing on a trampoline
2011-09-27 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at .31 yesterday
2011-09-27 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE TRIN closed at 1.20 today
2011-09-27 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at .99
2011-09-27 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .78
2011-09-27 17:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2011-09-27 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral there
2011-09-27 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .92
2011-09-27 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2011-09-27 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-27 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're no longer technically "oversold"
2011-09-27 17:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're far from being "overbought" as well
2011-09-27 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like we're to a point of being undecided about being undecided
2011-09-27 17:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2011-09-27 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run remains the rule of the day
2011-09-27 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2011-09-27 17:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really need to continue to follow through here
2011-09-27 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if they don't
2011-09-27 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next week or so is not going to look pretty
2011-09-27 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cumulative charts have shown very little improvement over the last couple of days
2011-09-27 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to be several more weeks before we're likely to see any kind of tradable bottom
2011-09-27 17:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looking at the daily VIX chart at DP with the 20 day BB
2011-09-27 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think I have ever seen this kind of duration above the 30 level before
2011-09-27 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-09-27 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the premiums on options
2011-09-27 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both puts and calls
2011-09-27 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are extraordinarily high
2011-09-27 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that what you're finding?
2011-09-27 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew?
2011-09-27 17:39:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OH YEA!
2011-09-27 17:39:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: UNREAL
2011-09-27 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST be very right about your position or you're going to get clobbered
2011-09-27 17:40:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-09-27 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have the market making the bulk of its daily move move at the open
2011-09-27 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little to show there after
2011-09-27 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you lose with time decay
2011-09-27 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone trading options right now better know what they're doing
2011-09-27 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best "option"?
2011-09-27 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: writing covered calls
2011-09-27 17:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a premium!
2011-09-27 17:41:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: been trading weeklies  - the premium on monthies basically eliminates chance for profit
2011-09-27 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprised
2011-09-27 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while all of this "go for broke" put buyers try to position themselves
2011-09-27 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the great majority are losing their shirts...it's tough
2011-09-27 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-27 17:42:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the drop on the financials late looked pretty ugly
2011-09-27 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at that
2011-09-27 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the potential for bull divergence now on the XLF breadth MCO
2011-09-27 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a snapback though
2011-09-27 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't have a good feeling there
2011-09-27 17:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know something
2011-09-27 17:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the daily XLF chart
2011-09-27 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't it kind of look like the February/March pattern in 2009 that led to the 666 lows?
2011-09-27 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here
2011-09-27 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have any structure for MCSUM divergence as yet
2011-09-27 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a small fractal
2011-09-27 17:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2011-09-27 17:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next couple of days are probably going to turn out to be important in some way
2011-09-27 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...by the way
2011-09-27 17:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Vegas show I talked about earlier in the month ended today
2011-09-27 17:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-27 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we had a low after all? lol
2011-09-27 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2011-09-27 17:47:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or a high, LOL
2011-09-27 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a tradeshow indicator
2011-09-27 17:48:02 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Las Vegas indicator is the most reliable so far
2011-09-27 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where some key market junctures tend to happen when I'm doing a show in Vegas
2011-09-27 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I didn't participate at this show
2011-09-27 17:48:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why not?
2011-09-27 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the timing has again proved interesting
2011-09-27 17:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a feel
2011-09-27 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't want to waste my time
2011-09-27 17:48:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2011-09-27 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's been happening over the last couple of years
2011-09-27 17:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the majority of "open to buy" has come in the spring when buyers know how much inventory they have and how much there is to spend with taxes out of the way
2011-09-27 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the fall shows tend to be "fill in existing inventory" show(s) of late
2011-09-27 17:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so better to work with important clients by e-mail or phone
2011-09-27 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2011-09-27 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the economy as it is
2011-09-27 17:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many people are just not making the trips as they used to
2011-09-27 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would rather work electronically
2011-09-27 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: saves money
2011-09-27 17:50:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: shows in many business venues resemble that
2011-09-27 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll know if I made the right decision or not in the next couple of days
2011-09-27 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm not sorry I didn't go
2011-09-27 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Vegas is having a whole bunch of tradeshow problems
2011-09-27 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I heard that traffic there, on a public level, is still very high
2011-09-27 17:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially on the weekends
2011-09-27 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point...Saturday's
2011-09-27 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I've been getting these mid week deals from some of the strip hotels which are just eye opening
2011-09-27 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: New York, New York at $49 a night Sunday through Thursday through next summer
2011-09-27 17:52:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-09-27 17:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of this is coming through Travelzoo
2011-09-27 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm also getting personal "member" mails on this too
2011-09-27 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-27 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you can get away during the week, there's a lot of savings in Vegas right now
2011-09-27 17:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're really hurting
2011-09-27 17:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from what I heard they are not getting their Asian clients
2011-09-27 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they rather play at Macau
2011-09-27 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll see how things go...but I suspect that tomorrow will be a tip off day
2011-09-27 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have the ES down 5 right now
2011-09-27 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-09-27 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-27 17:55:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-09-27 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np...it's a real tricky market here
2011-09-27 17:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep your discipline or lose your shirt
2011-09-27 17:56:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is!
2011-09-27 17:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really need to pick your fights carefully
2011-09-27 17:56:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-09-27 17:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-09-27 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-09-27 17:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-09-27 17:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what the market has to tell us on Thursday
2011-09-27 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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