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Posts: 4,883
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-09-26 16:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-09-26 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-09-26 16:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-09-26 16:04:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: market looks like it's warming up
2013-09-26 16:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...looks like the last of the basing is now complete
2013-09-26 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP and see what we have to work with today
2013-09-26 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving toward its zero line on Wednesday
2013-09-26 16:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO gave us our obligatory bounce higher today
2013-09-26 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't much conviction behind it
2013-09-26 16:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it settled higher enough (+15) to allow the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM to move above the +500 level
2013-09-26 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while today's price bar on the NYA remained above yesterday's intraday low and close
2013-09-26 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that we're likely to see additional strength near term
2013-09-26 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a challenge of the recent price highs that we saw last week
2013-09-26 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2013-09-26 16:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is how the current consolidation remains above the pattern gap of 2 weeks ago
2013-09-26 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another sign of intrinsic strength right now
2013-09-26 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, this also completes the snapback to what was the previous price highs on the daily chart
2013-09-26 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...things remain positive overall for the buyers
2013-09-26 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just need to see some end of month follow through to get things moving
2013-09-26 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw a bounce higher today in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has allowed the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM to move to around the +297 level
2013-09-26 16:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: far enough away now for us to see a probable challenge of the +500 level
2013-09-26 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ composite closed within single digit points of new recovery highs today
2013-09-26 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NASDAQ breadth MCO was able to not only bounce higher
2013-09-26 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also took out a blip resistance point that can be seen on the close up chart
2013-09-26 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern again
2013-09-26 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there is a definite triangular shape to the pattern
2013-09-26 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests a continuation pattern
2013-09-26 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and higher price highs should be the near term result of any breakout that might come about during this same time
2013-09-26 16:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also on the NASDAQ Composite price chart
2013-09-26 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the angle of ascent continues to increase as we move along in time
2013-09-26 16:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with one angle from the November/April lows
2013-09-26 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a more accelerated angle from the April/June lows
2013-09-26 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the current one from the June/August lows
2013-09-26 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have three fan formations present
2013-09-26 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is usually the set up right before we have an increase in the volatility of the price pattern itself
2013-09-26 16:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where melt up and melt down conditions can occur
2013-09-26 16:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch with interest how this time will turn out to be
2013-09-26 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2013-09-26 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now only 200 points away from reaching our longer term upside price target on the NASDAQ of 4000
2013-09-26 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was given back at the start of the December of last year
2013-09-26 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is now almost 900 points lower
2013-09-26 16:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see
2013-09-26 16:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for an overall gain now from that forecast of 22%
2013-09-26 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully many of us in the chat have benefited
2013-09-26 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was forecasted on Wednesday
2013-09-26 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2013-09-26 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now back above its zero line
2013-09-26 16:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the sideways movement of the NDX breadth MCSUM
2013-09-26 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it too moved to new highs with this same MCO zero line crossover
2013-09-26 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...the buyers need some good follow through here to move above the +1000 level
2013-09-26 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as our blueprint remains consistent
2013-09-26 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a matter of IF, it's only a matter of "when" this will actually take place
2013-09-26 16:24:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: do these inverted ledges mean we are going into the last move of the segment-which would make sense time wise anyway?
2013-09-26 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can be
2013-09-26 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ledges and fishhooks usually appear very close to the actual completion point in the MCSUM sequence
2013-09-26 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have seen before
2013-09-26 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either direction
2013-09-26 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are times in which we can have a ledge and then see a fishhook
2013-09-26 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or vice versa
2013-09-26 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in total though
2013-09-26 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are the greatest that a termination point in the MCSUM is taking place when a ledge formation appears on any downside sequence
2013-09-26 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can only exhaust so much from the market
2013-09-26 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can play up the market based on the worry factor, and then having clarity
2013-09-26 16:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2013-09-26 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess
2013-09-26 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the excuse is the debt ceiling
2013-09-26 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like all of the other "worries" out there
2013-09-26 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the answers are known
2013-09-26 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the market can move more freely
2013-09-26 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a river
2013-09-26 16:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a tree falls and closes off the flow of water
2013-09-26 16:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but eventually, when the tree is removed
2013-09-26 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the natural tendency of what each money flow sequence brings is then fulfilled
2013-09-26 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the worry continues on this "tapering" distraction
2013-09-26 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I read that 3 Fed Governors say that they will "taper" in October
2013-09-26 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but guess what everybody?
2013-09-26 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the Chairman who has the final say here
2013-09-26 16:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and he keeps saying early next year
2013-09-26 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if his replacement is Yellen
2013-09-26 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not going to change a thing
2013-09-26 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the wall of worry remains intact
2013-09-26 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the time to worry here would be when no one makes any remarks on this latest buzzword that was "invented" by the media
2013-09-26 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2013-09-26 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fundamental stuff is for the every day person
2013-09-26 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it means nothing to a technician
2013-09-26 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2013-09-26 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fundamentals matter
2013-09-26 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not all of this political pandering
2013-09-26 16:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2013-09-26 16:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for now
2013-09-26 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is that the odds of our breaking to the upside in all of the MCSUM's is better than 50%
2013-09-26 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we do have various areas of resistance still needing to be taken out along the way
2013-09-26 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for some it's a horizontal line of resistance
2013-09-26 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for the majority its a declining tops line connecting spring and summer MCSUM highs
2013-09-26 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether we break above these levels or not
2013-09-26 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still something that we should acknowledge as a potential rally killer
2013-09-26 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially now that we do have some inverted ledges in play
2013-09-26 16:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2013-09-26 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rubber won't meet the road until we get closer to these same trendline challenges
2013-09-26 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should just work with what the market gives us and be prepared (as always) for anything that might prove to be "different"
2013-09-26 16:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line now complete on the SPX breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the inverted ledge still in place on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2013-09-26 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still on a crossover sell signal on the SPX MCO components
2013-09-26 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow is one of those statement days
2013-09-26 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if the sellers don't take immediate control
2013-09-26 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will tend to stampede forward
2013-09-26 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little resistance
2013-09-26 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same thing with the OEX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2013-09-26 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the OEX MCO components
2013-09-26 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ditto on the Dow
2013-09-26 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got a nice brisk move higher today in the MID breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2013-09-26 16:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now see a nice separation of posting to the upside in the MID breadth MCSUM
2013-09-26 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're about to challenge the MID MCSUM gap resistance zone
2013-09-26 16:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML closed at new all time price highs today
2013-09-26 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't a lot of push to these highs by the SML breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-09-26 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't enough to even move above last week's blip resistance area
2013-09-26 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that blip is taken out
2013-09-26 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will not be able to stay in this new all time high territory
2013-09-26 16:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2013-09-26 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close above the intraday highs that were seen on Tuesday
2013-09-26 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw a small bounce higher as well in the TM breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how this has generated a larger post expansion to the upside in the TM breadth MCSUM
2013-09-26 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-09-26 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good technical start
2013-09-26 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we didn't see a lot of conviction from the buy side
2013-09-26 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was more than offset by a bigger lack of conviction from the sell side
2013-09-26 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we closed higher
2013-09-26 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're still looking for the trigger for our small point change that we had yesterday on the NYSE breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see what day 2 gives us
2013-09-26 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2013-09-26 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got a small bounce back above the zero line in the XLY breadth MCO
2013-09-26 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we can see on the close up chart
2013-09-26 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't enough to move above last Tuesday's blip resistance
2013-09-26 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-09-26 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a crossover buy going in the XLY MCO components
2013-09-26 16:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLY breadth MCSUM is above its +500 level
2013-09-26 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's more positives than negatives here
2013-09-26 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP price chart remains trapped in a larger trading range
2013-09-26 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLP breadth MCO had a swing of over 225 data points from last weeks highs to yesterday's lows
2013-09-26 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much puts this index at a neutral rating
2013-09-26 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here that the XLP breadth MCSUM was decisively turned away from the important +500 level
2013-09-26 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for now, it would probably be a good idea to look to other sectors for potential upside leadership
2013-09-26 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this probably also suggests
2013-09-26 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that our idea of Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley plowing their monies in after last Wednesday's Fed announcement got tired of waiting and moved into more conservative, defensive issues
2013-09-26 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there was none
2013-09-26 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-09-26 16:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one has control here, so step aside
2013-09-26 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE looks to be the sleeping giant
2013-09-26 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLE breadth MCO, the components, and the MCSUM are all at their zero lines
2013-09-26 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one side is about to take control
2013-09-26 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-09-26 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are trading at all time highs
2013-09-26 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if everyone is closer to being a winner than a loser
2013-09-26 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that the bulls are probably going to try to make a go of it first
2013-09-26 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll see if they have any staying power behind them
2013-09-26 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO did bounce off its zero line today
2013-09-26 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the MCO pattern
2013-09-26 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that this last move lower was probably more of profit taking than any kind of sell signal
2013-09-26 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the fact that we saw a lot of upside texture in the pattern going into the recent MCO highs
2013-09-26 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation here is for that to continue
2013-09-26 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also at how the price pattern continues to hold at the $20 level
2013-09-26 16:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, aside from the August correction
2013-09-26 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is where we saw the prior highs made in May
2013-09-26 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when we take this knowledge together with the current position of the XLF breadth MCSUM
2013-09-26 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can place a buy stop at the 20.40 level
2013-09-26 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a sell stop at .10 below yesterday's intraday lows
2013-09-26 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals, however, continue to say that we're not done yet on the upside
2013-09-26 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it all sorts out
2013-09-26 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the Consumer Staples
2013-09-26 16:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV also took it on the defensive chin this past week
2013-09-26 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much so that the XLV breadth MCO moved to a minimal "oversold" reading of -62
2013-09-26 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the background noise going on with funding Obamacare
2013-09-26 16:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess this would make some sense
2013-09-26 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically
2013-09-26 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the XLV price structure should remain with an upside bias
2013-09-26 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a test of the trendline on the year chart will probably be challenged short term
2013-09-26 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM continues to show good strength here
2013-09-26 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it not only taking out its declining tops line
2013-09-26 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now its also taken out its horizontal resistance point
2013-09-26 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2013-09-26 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see good strength in both the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports over the next several weeks
2013-09-26 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the near term problem of seeing what will happen as we get closer to the +1250 level
2013-09-26 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with today's reading of +1192
2013-09-26 17:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should know more on that by the middle part of next week
2013-09-26 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting a lot of conflicting signals with the XLB data
2013-09-26 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where breadth of market is not showing any real support at current price levels
2013-09-26 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it probably won't be too surprising if we see a near term shake out there
2013-09-26 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term though
2013-09-26 17:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not really enough as yet to call the current condition a problem
2013-09-26 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like we need to see a reset here so that the engine timing is a bit better
2013-09-26 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK remains choppy...but with a bullish bias
2013-09-26 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a lot there to hang our collective hats on though
2013-09-26 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's probably better to continue to watch this one from the sidelines
2013-09-26 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though a new closing high might be something to work with
2013-09-26 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough to say
2013-09-26 17:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU price pattern continues to move within a large trading range
2013-09-26 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLU breadth MCO showing tepid support
2013-09-26 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLU breadth MCSUM remains soft
2013-09-26 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo...
2013-09-26 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that last weeks rush to move into defensive issues has come and gone
2013-09-26 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the only real leader here right now is with the XLI
2013-09-26 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with several others showing some resemblance to wanting to continue to be positive
2013-09-26 17:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of a mixed bag
2013-09-26 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where hopefully we'll have a better handle on next week
2013-09-26 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now neutral
2013-09-26 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now "oversold"
2013-09-26 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's continue to hang in there suggesting that we're trending
2013-09-26 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the three
2013-09-26 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control
2013-09-26 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like that initially it will be the buyers
2013-09-26 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.18
2013-09-26 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.42
2013-09-26 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2013-09-26 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...
2013-09-26 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and people want to short this?
2013-09-26 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about a technical death wish
2013-09-26 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we had a solid floor today in prices
2013-09-26 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that was missing was actually support of the bids
2013-09-26 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it looked like we were starting to get that at the close
2013-09-26 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll check the futures in a moment
2013-09-26 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Open 10 is now at its lowest levels in 3 years
2013-09-26 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are less than 2% from all time highs on many of the major market indices?
2013-09-26 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can we have a deeply "oversold" market when there's been little in the way that would generate such activity by moving prices lower?
2013-09-26 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely amazing
2013-09-26 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait until the shorts could really be something
2013-09-26 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .80
2013-09-26 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .90
2013-09-26 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2013-09-26 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .89
2013-09-26 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2013-09-26 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2013-09-26 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooooooo.....
2013-09-26 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the bulls ball
2013-09-26 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's very little defense from the opposite side
2013-09-26 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although there shouldn't be too much problem in moving the ball forward
2013-09-26 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also can't discount that the one holding the ball has butter on their fingers either and could fumble the ball near term
2013-09-26 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but odds wise
2013-09-26 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see new price highs within a couple of sessions here
2013-09-26 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the futures
2013-09-26 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow up about the same as yesterday at this time +36
2013-09-26 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's check the BETS
2013-09-26 17:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the NAUD line today
2013-09-26 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +40, but we have 4 of the cumulative charts that are about to, or are compressed enough, to move into bullish configurations on any positive day on Friday
2013-09-26 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality is still leading here
2013-09-26 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the AMEX is waking up now
2013-09-26 17:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSX is also showing good performance as well
2013-09-26 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look around at the sectors
2013-09-26 17:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: banks are soft
2013-09-26 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Biotech is still strong
2013-09-26 17:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Clean Energy remains strong
2013-09-26 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Precious metals still look blah
2013-09-26 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting concerned with that sector now
2013-09-26 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...not so much concerned
2013-09-26 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I am cognizant that if gold prices don't rise soon
2013-09-26 17:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we can bet that the further monetary easing will be a thing of the past
2013-09-26 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2013-09-26 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2013-09-26 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that excess liquidity moves first into gold
2013-09-26 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then into commodities
2013-09-26 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then into debt
2013-09-26 17:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then finally into equities
2013-09-26 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes about 16-18 months for this cycle of events to move from gold to equities
2013-09-26 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if one were to want more proof of this intermarket relationship
2013-09-26 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than one only has to look at the price of gold moving lower in the past year signaling lesser amounts of excess
2013-09-26 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this then travels into debt instruments
2013-09-26 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why interest rates have been moving higher over the last 4-6 months
2013-09-26 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the theory of our moving from a stock market that is based on the creation of money to that to the creation of earnings probably makes the most amount of fundamental sense
2013-09-26 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will, of course, have this all explained to us later on
2013-09-26 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when economist see this all happen
2013-09-26 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then come up with a theory to support their findings [smile]
2013-09-26 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home builders are compressed
2013-09-26 17:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a big move very soon there
2013-09-26 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the patterns in bullish configurations
2013-09-26 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest it will be something to the upside
2013-09-26 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: REITS are still struggling
2013-09-26 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the daily EMA interplay on MORT for any insight into that sector
2013-09-26 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something to watch
2013-09-26 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BAC
2013-09-26 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it topped out recently at 15
2013-09-26 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that it's out of the Dow
2013-09-26 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be a good play
2013-09-26 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while no one is watching
2013-09-26 17:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MasterCard is also a great indicator on economic activity
2013-09-26 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you know it's now trading at $677 a share?
2013-09-26 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...not much else to report on
2013-09-26 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just treading water here
2013-09-26 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-09-26 17:33:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2013-09-26 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's your take Lew?
2013-09-26 17:34:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: tomorrow is probably important, my bias is up
2013-09-26 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we certainly have a lot of support right now
2013-09-26 17:34:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and that arms, jeez
2013-09-26 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that ridiculously high Open 10 is giving...yes
2013-09-26 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's set a solid floor here
2013-09-26 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something remarkable to break down right now
2013-09-26 17:35:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agree
2013-09-26 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we'll see how it goes
2013-09-26 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-09-26 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2013-09-26 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have our usual Tuesday, Thursday format next week
2013-09-26 17:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I should be able to put a calendar together for October by the middle part of next week
2013-09-26 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until then...everyone have a great weekend
2013-09-26 17:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are on Tuesday
2013-09-26 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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