Chat - 9/26/12 - Technical Watch Forum

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 9/26/12

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,823

Posted 1348752164	Reply with quote #1

2012-09-26 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day 2012-09-26 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone? 2012-09-26 16:00:39 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Hi Dave! 2012-09-26 16:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi Eric! 2012-09-26 16:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how's it going? 2012-09-26 16:03:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2012-09-26 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a breakdown yesterday... 2012-09-26 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was traveling 2012-09-26 16:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at 11:00 the Dow was up 32 2012-09-26 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next thing I hear is it was down 101 at the end of the day 2012-09-26 16:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (big mouth FED official...pouring water on the party like that...shame) 2012-09-26 16:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well, let's get started 2012-09-26 16:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up 2012-09-26 16:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued its journey lower from the last time we met 2012-09-26 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this latest move broke our rising bottoms line...it looks like yesterday 2012-09-26 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the usual occurrence took place when a trend line is violated 2012-09-26 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pretty good move in the price pattern in the direction of the violation 2012-09-26 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news, however, is that we currently remain above the July lows in this MCO 2012-09-26 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 10% component is now minimally "oversold" 2012-09-26 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% component is only now testing its zero line 2012-09-26 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate that another bounce higher is now due 2012-09-26 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but hopefully this time around 2012-09-26 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be a bounce with more vigor in it as opposed to the one we saw last Friday 2012-09-26 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up chart of the NYA price pattern 2012-09-26 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have also now sufficiently snapped back to what was previous overhead resistance from last spring 2012-09-26 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, taken together, a bounce will probably be seen as soon as tomorrow 2012-09-26 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the bulls don't want to see happen here is this MCO moving below its July lows 2012-09-26 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this occurs, then we'll be stuck with a rally failure 2012-09-26 16:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll fall back into the previous trading range 2012-09-26 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though, this idea looks like a lower probability 2012-09-26 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given both the snapback in price 2012-09-26 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the spike high in the MCO we saw prior to this latest grab of control by the bears 2012-09-26 16:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we settled on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM on the newly adjusted rising bottoms line connecting the May and September lows 2012-09-26 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will also be especially important with regard to this idea 2012-09-26 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that not only the NYSE composite breadth MCO and MCSUM are showing stronger support here 2012-09-26 16:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and/or 2012-09-26 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10's and STVO's are at "oversold" levels 2012-09-26 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's see what we got 2012-09-26 16:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first thing we see on the NYSE composite breadth MCO is that this latest out flow of cash is directly challenging the MCO lows of July now 2012-09-26 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the CO data 2012-09-26 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components here at or above their zero line which suggests corrective activity 2012-09-26 16:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that again we are sufficiently "oversold" here on the MCO 2012-09-26 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a technical bounce as soon as Thursday 2012-09-26 16:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM 2012-09-26 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that we are still well above the +500 level with a reading of +795 2012-09-26 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the high levels seen here 2012-09-26 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its very unlikely that we've seen a tradable top on an intermediate term basis 2012-09-26 16:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-09-26 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be in the process of finishing off an inverted "fishhook" here on the MCSUM 2012-09-26 16:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this indeed the case 2012-09-26 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a sharp reversal in this downside pattern as soon as tomorrow 2012-09-26 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something like this would also satisfy both a simple snapback to or toward the +750 level 2012-09-26 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less 2012-09-26 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to or toward the previous horizontal range on the MCSUM that we've been chatting about over the last couple of weeks 2012-09-26 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last observation here 2012-09-26 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that...so far...we are seeing a divergence in the selling pressure between the NYSE breadth components and the July lows and now as it relates to the MCO itself 2012-09-26 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless the bears start really picking up the pace here and now 2012-09-26 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see another failure by the sell side to again take control of the pattern 2012-09-26 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the rest of the indices are doing 2012-09-26 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh wow 2012-09-26 16:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very interesting 2012-09-26 16:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK... 2012-09-26 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has also moved lower after bouncing off its zero line last Friday 2012-09-26 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not as deeply "oversold" as the NYSE data shows 2012-09-26 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less 2012-09-26 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we haven't as yet taken out the "divergent" lows in the July/August period as yet 2012-09-26 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though the 10% Trend component is below its zero line 2012-09-26 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% is only now testing this same demarcation level between bull and bear 2012-09-26 16:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see some sort of snapback/bounce action as soon as tomorrow here as well 2012-09-26 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the COMPQ price pattern 2012-09-26 16:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have also satisfied a simple snapback today as well 2012-09-26 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in all cases of this snapback 2012-09-26 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's being accomplished by the very same news events that have been driving prices higher since the June lows 2012-09-26 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we had a very high ISEE reading a week ago Friday as well 2012-09-26 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is now becoming more stabilized 2012-09-26 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or was it last Friday...? 2012-09-26 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope, September 14th 2012-09-26 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a week ago Friday 2012-09-26 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was also the same time in which the NYSE Open 10 was getting a little frothy as we remember 2012-09-26 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now had our usual and customary hic up after OPEX behind us as well 2012-09-26 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...could be as good a point in the pattern for a tradable low 2012-09-26 16:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the NDX is doing 2012-09-26 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the spring price highs...check 2012-09-26 16:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little deeper dig lower in the NDX breadth MCO 2012-09-26 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we haven't taken out the July lows as yet 2012-09-26 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we sure are challenging them 2012-09-26 16:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM was not able to move above previous highs as we had hoped 2012-09-26 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back near its zero line with a reading of +32 2012-09-26 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls continue to have a slight advantage there 2012-09-26 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor 2012-09-26 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that the short term rising bottoms line connecting the NDX breadth MCSUM lows of August and September were broken today 2012-09-26 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this basket of stocks remains indecisive on an intermediate term basis 2012-09-26 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the sellers do have the upper hand now on a short term basis with a highly "oversold" reading on the NDX breadth MCO of -71 2012-09-26 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see what happens tomorrow 2012-09-26 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth data 2012-09-26 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have our first real violation with the SPX breadth MCO now at its lowest levels of the last several months 2012-09-26 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will give us a reset 2012-09-26 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also triggers bear divergence now in not only the MCO but also the SPX breadth MCSUM 2012-09-26 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that the MCSUM pattern wasn't able to move to the +500 level before turning lower 2012-09-26 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for those who may be playing the SPX strictly 2012-09-26 16:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bounce here would be your cue to unload any longs 2012-09-26 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're now likely to see the SPX breadth MCSUM snapback all the way to the zero line now 2012-09-26 16:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at the very least 2012-09-26 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +150 level where the near term rising bottoms line on the MCSUM pattern intersect 2012-09-26 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the good news for the bulls here is... 2012-09-26 16:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this recent decline to new lows in the SPX breadth MCO 2012-09-26 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shows absolutely no texture here 2012-09-26 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the bears have short term control here 2012-09-26 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their defense here has holes in it and is subject to be filled at a whim 2012-09-26 16:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this can then create large reflex rally's higher here 2012-09-26 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the SPX breadth MCSUM is still well above its zero line 2012-09-26 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the conservative play would be to unload here on a rally 2012-09-26 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bank any funds when bought on the breakout at the 1405 level (or there about) 2012-09-26 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the OEX looks 2012-09-26 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can really see the MCSUM resistance here with the OEX breadth data at the +500 level 2012-09-26 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it was important to be able to reach this "escape velocity" so that the price pattern could, in fact, continue to move higher above the old price pattern highs and stay there 2012-09-26 16:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are seeing some divergence in play here between the MCO and the OEX components 2012-09-26 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that again is good for a near term bounce 2012-09-26 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow data remains corrective 2012-09-26 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again 2012-09-26 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow price pattern has minimally snapped back to what was previous overhead resistance 2012-09-26 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could be entitled to a bounce here again, like this morning, but with a little more oompf to it 2012-09-26 16:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well... 2012-09-26 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID data doesn't look too hot here with new lows in the MID breadth MCO 2012-09-26 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this break to new lows today 2012-09-26 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM also broke below its rising bottoms line that has been containing the pattern since the early August lows 2012-09-26 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately for the bulls though 2012-09-26 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are deeply "oversold" 2012-09-26 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now approaching one of our natural support levels on the MID breadth MCSUM at the +500 level 2012-09-26 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also to adding salt to the MID wound 2012-09-26 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's break of MCO and MCSUM support also was able to simultaneously break the rising bottoms line on the price chart as well 2012-09-26 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about as definitive of a sell signal that you're going to get 2012-09-26 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but first before we get too beared up here 2012-09-26 16:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see at least a challenge of the recent price highs first 2012-09-26 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's no need as yet to dump anything in this basket of stocks 2012-09-26 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it might be our set up for our ultimate sell that we're looking for sometime in October 2012-09-26 16:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing as yet has changed enough to detour from that forecast 2012-09-26 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we look at the SML data 2012-09-26 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it shows that there still hasn't been too much heavy selling as yet in this basket of stocks 2012-09-26 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the large and mid caps were getting sold here 2012-09-26 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the small caps not nearly as bad 2012-09-26 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems corrective to me 2012-09-26 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a larger caution would be if the SML were leading lower 2012-09-26 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not...at least not yet 2012-09-26 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the SML breadth MCSUM had its challenges to get much above the +750 level 2012-09-26 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not too unusual since the higher or lower you go in the MCSUM 2012-09-26 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tougher it is to keep the MCSUM moving in this same direction 2012-09-26 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there is an overwhelming push in this same direction where it can move to even more extreme levels 2012-09-26 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we move to the TM breadth MCO 2012-09-26 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that its still above its July lows 2012-09-26 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO components are either testing its zero line or still above this level of neutrality 2012-09-26 16:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's good for a bounce near term 2012-09-26 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-09-26 16:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we had our "shot off the bow" a week or so ago 2012-09-26 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this past couple of days some of the bombs being thrown by the sellers hit their target pretty well 2012-09-26 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now likely to churn around a bit...maybe into the beginning of next week 2012-09-26 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we have some technical breakdowns that do need our attention 2012-09-26 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader based market data does not suggest that we shouldn't panic here 2012-09-26 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that things could eventually sort themselves out after a week or so of chop 2012-09-26 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume side is holding up /\ (fingers crossed) 2012-09-26 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO is now at its lowest level since the May lows 2012-09-26 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a good thing here for when we see these kind of extremes in this MCO 2012-09-26 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually at a time when we're making a significant low in the price pattern 2012-09-26 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the selling is way overdone 2012-09-26 16:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however 2012-09-26 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will now take a couple of weeks to once again build some sort of foundational structure in the MCO so that we can, once again, move back above the zero line again 2012-09-26 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that with a current reading of +735 on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM 2012-09-26 16:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the bears are going to have a tough time developing a trend to the downside 2012-09-26 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-09-26 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we have the MCO on one side of zero 2012-09-26 17:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM on the other 2012-09-26 17:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this results in a trading range 2012-09-26 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then 2012-09-26 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Elliottician's out there 2012-09-26 17:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this looks like a wave 4 2012-09-26 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we find our support here 2012-09-26 17:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're very likely to have one more move to the upside to finish things off 2012-09-26 17:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point 2012-09-26 17:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the break of the MCO lows 2012-09-26 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation now has changed a bit 2012-09-26 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're only likely to challenge the all time highs in the SPX and Dow on this sequence 2012-09-26 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're going to have to wait a bit longer for a break to new all time highs 2012-09-26 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you imagine the bearishness that would be created if we stalled at the all time highs and then started moving lower? 2012-09-26 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can hear screams of DOUBLE TOP echoing through the streets of Wall and Broad now 2012-09-26 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite volume MCO 2012-09-26 17:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we have broken to new lows here 2012-09-26 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that pretty much puts another nail in the coffin for the current uptrend from the June lows 2012-09-26 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the NYSE volume MCSUM wasn't able to get much passed the +750 level here 2012-09-26 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll probably break the accelerated trendline we see here within the next week 2012-09-26 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lower low also kind of cancels out the high peak we saw 2 weeks ago 2012-09-26 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it looks like we're in for some chop 2012-09-26 17:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then 2012-09-26 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to move higher in the overall structure 2012-09-26 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but its not likely now that we're going to extend much past the mid October period 2012-09-26 17:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...probably means...it's going to be a close election 2012-09-26 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no one is going to make a commitment until after the first Tuesday in November 2012-09-26 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good. 2012-09-26 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good information to have 2012-09-26 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and changes our blueprint in this regard 2012-09-26 17:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see the overwhelming downside volume over the last couple of days as we look at these volume MCO's 2012-09-26 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ too moved to lower lows here 2012-09-26 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a mixed picture there as well 2012-09-26 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ volume MCO showing bear divergence at the recent highs 2012-09-26 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NASDAQ volume MCSUM made a higher high 2012-09-26 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the best the bears are going to be able to accomplish here is a trading range 2012-09-26 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note the mid range close on the NASDAQ composite index 2012-09-26 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost one on the NYA 2012-09-26 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan and Korea just opened down .5% 2012-09-26 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: adding to our blueprint here 2012-09-26 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably a pretty good bet that the lower end of any trading range we might have here will come at or near the longer term rising bottoms line connecting the October 2011 and June 2012 lows on the price chart 2012-09-26 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NASDAQ that comes in at around the 2975 level 2012-09-26 17:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here again 2012-09-26 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below a psychological important number like 3000 would again increase bearish sentiment 2012-09-26 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the line of support 2012-09-26 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the NDX volume MCO huffed and puffed and just couldn't get away from its zero line 2012-09-26 17:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX volume MCSUM found its zero line too much to overcome as well 2012-09-26 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do believe that when we spoke about this MCSUM last week we were working with the idea of a ledge 2012-09-26 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be in play here still 2012-09-26 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the NDX volume MCO did NOT move to lower lows 2012-09-26 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be our first step in the buyers attempt to construct a new low 2012-09-26 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM was turned away right at the +750 2012-09-26 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between breadth and volume the easy trade of being long isn't so easy now 2012-09-26 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and reinforces the idea of selling any longs on any bounce we may see here in the next couple of days 2012-09-26 17:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's also be very clear here 2012-09-26 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean we short either 2012-09-26 17:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for as long as the MCSUM remain above their zero lines 2012-09-26 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're back to hit and run trading for those who may wish to play that side of the trade 2012-09-26 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have no sell signal here 2012-09-26 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything...we're back on a "don't buy" signal and "hold" just like we had last month 2012-09-26 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how things look once we see our obligatory snapbacks to the MCO zero lines 2012-09-26 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same here with the OEX volume data 2012-09-26 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and AGAIN...notice how the OEX volume MCSUM wasn't able to move above the +750 level 2012-09-26 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also a lot of downside volume in the Dow volume MCO 2012-09-26 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO is now deeply "oversold" joining its breadth cousin 2012-09-26 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is bullish longer term 2012-09-26 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the move from "overbought" to "oversold" has very little texture 2012-09-26 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this 2012-09-26 17:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any reflex rally will tend to be quite volatile as the vacuum created gets filled just as quickly 2012-09-26 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...one thing's for sure 2012-09-26 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCO's are saying "stand aside" 2012-09-26 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out where the SML and TM volume MCSUM's found their resistance 2012-09-26 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +1000 and +500 respectively 2012-09-26 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing how this happens over and over again, isn't it? 2012-09-26 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-09-26 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that the "easy part" of the rally is now behind us 2012-09-26 17:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there is still some upside likely to be seen before we have a completion of this 3 month uptrend 2012-09-26 17:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this 2012-09-26 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now take a more defensive view towards the market again 2012-09-26 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I must stress 2012-09-26 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is NOT a sell signal 2012-09-26 17:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is a hold signal for now 2012-09-26 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get our snapbacks to or toward the zero lines on the MCO's 2012-09-26 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll have more clarity on the timing and whether this means a change in trend is likely... 2012-09-26 17:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if this is just another pause to refresh to relieve any "overbought" readings in the MCSUM 2012-09-26 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are close to suggesting a turnaround in price 2012-09-26 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now "oversold" 2012-09-26 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are pretty well neutral here 2012-09-26 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a perfect technical world 2012-09-26 17:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're likely to see here 2012-09-26 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for a bounce to start in the STVO's from "oversold" levels 2012-09-26 17:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bounce seen in the VTO's at or near their zero lines 2012-09-26 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all three volume oscillators going to "overbought" simultaneously with the new price highs we're likely to get 2012-09-26 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be our sell 2012-09-26 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a week or two away from that 2012-09-26 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.19 2012-09-26 17:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.07 2012-09-26 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good 2012-09-26 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 21 day SMA of the TRIN is also close to being "oversold" now 2012-09-26 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4 day is already there 2012-09-26 17:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce near term 2012-09-26 17:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a more pronounced sell off would secure a price low 2012-09-26 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can move sideways 2012-09-26 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.36 2012-09-26 17:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04 2012-09-26 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold" 2012-09-26 17:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.37 2012-09-26 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06 2012-09-26 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo.... 2012-09-26 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look for a reflex bounce as soon as tomorrow 2012-09-26 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls 2012-09-26 17:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have end of month seasonality also supporting the pattern structure here 2012-09-26 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we have end of the quarter window dressing 2012-09-26 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: combine that with the highly "oversold" readings in all of the volume MCO's 2012-09-26 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the vacuum created by this same non stop imbalance of selling 2012-09-26 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any reflex could be quite the eye opener 2012-09-26 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're short...hard stops here 2012-09-26 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we want to try to stay away from is being emotional here 2012-09-26 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again the media is attempting to get us to focus on things that have little in the way of trading advantages by showing pictures of people lighting fires and rioting 2012-09-26 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you put that together with some Fed Governor telling us what we already know 2012-09-26 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one can get emotionally attached to the wrong side of the trade 2012-09-26 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain focused on what's truly important here...money flow 2012-09-26 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should keep you from being a casualty 2012-09-26 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-09-26 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideas? comments? 2012-09-26 17:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that I've noticed over the last 3 or 4 months is that we see these sell offs into Wednesday's and we get "all better Thursday's" from Europe 2012-09-26 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happens 2012-09-26 17:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the dynamics are right now 2012-09-26 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see quite reflex rally 2012-09-26 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will NOT be confirmed by the internals 2012-09-26 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we need to remained focused 2012-09-26 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have broken support on many MCO's 2012-09-26 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now going to take time to construct a new pattern of lows from where prices can then advance with underlying support 2012-09-26 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the area of sentiment 2012-09-26 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is the correct observation of a Elliott 5th wave 2012-09-26 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will again see those who have been bearish all the way up from the June lows 2012-09-26 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have recently said "I told you so" 2012-09-26 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will now turn around and go long on this reflex...throw in the towel 2012-09-26 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot to observe here to confirm this change in the blueprint 2012-09-26 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...our next chat is tomorrow 2012-09-26 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I should have October's schedule up this weekend 2012-09-26 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-09-26 17:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (anyone there?) 2012-09-26 17:44:59 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Hey Dave wanted to say one thing..... 2012-09-26 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...go right ahead 2012-09-26 17:45:59 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: i have been a subscriber to your chats for 6 months or so and your perspective and information have helped my trading IMMENSELY. Thank you so much. Tonight's chat was excellent. 2012-09-26 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you humble me sir 2012-09-26 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you 2012-09-26 17:46:29 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: you are very welcome. 2012-09-26 17:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is being reasonable in a world of chaos 2012-09-26 17:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the tools we use in here help us to keep our focus 2012-09-26 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that 2012-09-26 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take my leave 2012-09-26 17:47:59 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Thanks Dave 2012-09-26 17:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great day tomorrow 2012-09-26 17:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see if we can firm up things moving forward then 2012-09-26 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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