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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,495
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-24 16:00:09 fib1618: good day
2015-09-24 16:00:12 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-24 16:01:15 fib1618: (testing...testing...can you hear me in the back?) [smile]
2015-09-24 16:01:36 orange: will be mostly afk during this one, but I'm doing well [smile]
2015-09-24 16:02:00 fib1618: not a problem...glad you could stop by with your busy schedule!
2015-09-24 16:02:38 rite01: Doing fine here thanks for asking
2015-09-24 16:02:57 thespookyone: Great, thx
2015-09-24 16:03:11 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-24 16:03:18 fib1618: I will check on the BETS in the meantime
2015-09-24 16:03:50 tuna: great!
2015-09-24 16:03:51 thespookyone: This "bounce" is taking forever, the market feels pretty soft
2015-09-24 16:04:07 tuna: waiting for a flush
2015-09-24 16:04:08 fib1618: what bounce?
2015-09-24 16:04:13 fib1618: almost had it today
2015-09-24 16:04:18 fib1618: -65
2015-09-24 16:04:20 fib1618: back to a "sell" on the BETS
2015-09-24 16:04:24 thespookyone: I think one may have started today...
2015-09-24 16:04:51 fib1618: the expected bounce yesterday was very weak
2015-09-24 16:05:06 fib1618: as we kind of expected after we hit the MID and SML volume MCO data
2015-09-24 16:05:25 rite01: You said a while back by following the 19 and 39EMA's you would do better than 90% of the investors.. But would that still be good enough to make money longer term of course?
2015-09-24 16:06:32 fib1618: you may  be mixing methodologies
2015-09-24 16:07:04 fib1618: the 90% rule is more in keeping with the leading sector in the direction of the larger degree of money flow
2015-09-24 16:07:07 fib1618: so...
2015-09-24 16:07:16 fib1618: if the A/D line is moving north or south
2015-09-24 16:07:24 fib1618: and you trade in that direction
2015-09-24 16:07:32 fib1618: you have a 60% chance of making a profit
2015-09-24 16:07:47 fib1618: if you pick the leading sector in that same direction
2015-09-24 16:07:51 fib1618: you have a 90% chance
2015-09-24 16:08:04 fib1618: pick the leading stock in the leading sector...100%
2015-09-24 16:08:11 fib1618: now
2015-09-24 16:08:32 fib1618: being on the right side of the 19 and 39 day EMA's does have its distinct advantages
2015-09-24 16:09:07 fib1618: but even more so if the 19 is leading the 39 which is leading the 200 day EMA from which the direction of money is flowing
2015-09-24 16:09:40 thespookyone: It's a great approach, and important to use, imho. Takes a bit of time, and well worth it!
2015-09-24 16:10:15 rite01: Understand thanks too you both
2015-09-24 16:10:22 fib1618: no problemo
2015-09-24 16:10:48 fib1618: this is why a review of the cumulative charts is helpful each week
2015-09-24 16:11:24 fib1618: for if they are not in a full bull or bear configuration, this then tells you that the market is likely to churn and not trend
2015-09-24 16:11:46 fib1618: but the more you have on one side of the fence or the other, the higher the odds of success in trading in this same direction
2015-09-24 16:11:51 fib1618: and that's where the BETS comes in
2015-09-24 16:12:01 fib1618: with today's reading of -65
2015-09-24 16:12:17 fib1618: this tells you that 13 of the 20 charts reviewed are in bearish configurations
2015-09-24 16:12:32 fib1618: the more that lopsided
2015-09-24 16:12:39 fib1618: the higher the degree for prices to trend
2015-09-24 16:13:03 fib1618: this is why we have such a wide spread in being neutral from -20 to +20
2015-09-24 16:13:18 fib1618: with zero being half the charts
2015-09-24 16:13:39 fib1618: and 20 being 12 of the 20
2015-09-24 16:13:52 fib1618: you need that much of a tip in the scales for the prices to actually trend
2015-09-24 16:14:19 fib1618: enough of a majority to make a difference
2015-09-24 16:14:38 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-09-24 16:15:13 fib1618: after seeing the NYA index fail to close above the Tuesday's settlement
2015-09-24 16:15:38 fib1618: we see that prices sagged further to the downside today because of this technical failure to succeed
2015-09-24 16:16:28 fib1618: but wound up closing today just above the horizontal line we can draw connecting the intraday price lows of earlier this month
2015-09-24 16:16:56 fib1618: sort of like slipping off a cliff but finding a branch to barely grab hold hold on to keep from falling
2015-09-24 16:17:01 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2015-09-24 16:17:10 fib1618: and we have a small point change tonight to work with
2015-09-24 16:17:25 fib1618: with a current reading of -19
2015-09-24 16:18:23 fib1618: so if the buyers are going to attempt add to today's intraday rally to take control tomorrow
2015-09-24 16:19:07 fib1618: they will need to flex their muscles early
2015-09-24 16:19:24 fib1618: or we'll likely to wind up with a very weak close going into the weekend
2015-09-24 16:19:26 fib1618: and
2015-09-24 16:19:48 fib1618: this will all but take away from any chance of an inverted ledge on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-09-24 16:20:27 fib1618: with any further break of the 9/1 lows in the MCO a highly bearish event for the near term
2015-09-24 16:21:11 fib1618: we also see the same degree of weakness in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-24 16:21:30 fib1618: as we settled today on the RA with a reading of -12
2015-09-24 16:21:42 fib1618: not enough to push prices lower
2015-09-24 16:21:59 fib1618: but enough to keep things sluggish for the near term
2015-09-24 16:22:20 fib1618: given that we haven't as yet snapped back to the MCO zero lines in both of the NYSE MCO's
2015-09-24 16:22:43 fib1618: there is this outside chance that this can be done as soon as tomorrow
2015-09-24 16:22:55 fib1618: but the longs are letting things slip away from them
2015-09-24 16:23:21 fib1618: and the market will become highly vulnerable to some sort of capitulation move if they don't belly up here and now
2015-09-24 16:23:32 fib1618: notice also
2015-09-24 16:23:56 fib1618: that on the NYSE Composite Traditional breadth MCSUM
2015-09-24 16:24:05 fib1618: that we are finding resistance at the zero line
2015-09-24 16:25:04 fib1618: with any further weakness here liable to see a downside acceleration in prices as many traders begin to "give up" for a tradable bounce
2015-09-24 16:25:29 fib1618: we also have the inside track in knowing that the BETS continues to weaken this week as well
2015-09-24 16:25:34 fib1618: and if breadth leads price
2015-09-24 16:26:08 fib1618: the risk is not being on the short side over the near to short term time frame
2015-09-24 16:26:34 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-24 16:26:42 fib1618: and here too we have a small point change today
2015-09-24 16:26:51 fib1618: so there's some tension on the tape near term
2015-09-24 16:27:15 fib1618: with both sides not showing a whole lot of conviction either way
2015-09-24 16:27:50 fib1618: but with the sellers controlling things on an intermediate term basis carrying the larger weighting on the short term direction for prices
2015-09-24 16:28:28 fib1618: if these are inverted ledges that we're seeing on the MCSUM's
2015-09-24 16:28:56 fib1618: this is the 3rd day...so we should have a resolution coming by Monday at the latest...one way or the other
2015-09-24 16:29:09 fib1618: as a side note
2015-09-24 16:29:23 fib1618: I don't think I have ever seen the stock market sell off during a Pope visit
2015-09-24 16:29:45 fib1618: and that may have some added insight as to how weak we really are here
2015-09-24 16:29:49 thespookyone: Good thing you aren't headed to Vegas, LOL
2015-09-24 16:29:54 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-24 16:30:07 fib1618: the original dates for the fall show were next week
2015-09-24 16:30:18 thespookyone: wow
2015-09-24 16:30:20 tuna: it may wait till he leaves
2015-09-24 16:30:22 fib1618: BTW
2015-09-24 16:30:31 fib1618: I just finished setting the first show for 2016
2015-09-24 16:31:03 fib1618: beginning of January - from the 8th to the 12th...but not in Vegas
2015-09-24 16:31:20 fib1618: we'll see about that...there's always New York on Friday
2015-09-24 16:31:37 fib1618: OK...moving on
2015-09-24 16:32:08 fib1618: we see that the NDX closed the early September pattern gap today
2015-09-24 16:32:24 fib1618: and found support
2015-09-24 16:32:39 fib1618: normally this a good sign for further buoyancy
2015-09-24 16:32:50 fib1618: but the BETS so highly negative here
2015-09-24 16:33:32 fib1618: it may be more like trying to save one's self from drowning than it might be learning to float on the surface of the pool
2015-09-24 16:34:16 fib1618: gosh..getting that same feeling that I got last Thursday
2015-09-24 16:34:29 fib1618: price patterns are really sloppy here
2015-09-24 16:34:37 fib1618: they're trying to hold on here
2015-09-24 16:35:04 fib1618: but if this is a sub set Elliott "b" as we discussed last week
2015-09-24 16:35:14 fib1618: we MUST see an upside reversal here and now
2015-09-24 16:35:25 fib1618: or we're liable to collapse
2015-09-24 16:35:43 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-24 16:35:50 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO continues to slide lower
2015-09-24 16:36:08 fib1618: now with a reading of -30
2015-09-24 16:36:14 fib1618: so the 25 level didn't hold
2015-09-24 16:36:30 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is right at -25 now
2015-09-24 16:36:44 fib1618: Yuck!
2015-09-24 16:36:58 fib1618: nothing to like here as a chartist
2015-09-24 16:37:40 fib1618: can't even call this a "b" wave anymore from last Thursday's top
2015-09-24 16:37:48 fib1618: more like an "x" wave now
2015-09-24 16:38:03 fib1618: as we broke below the lows of the previous symmetrical triangle
2015-09-24 16:38:15 fib1618: don't like what I'm seeing here
2015-09-24 16:38:18 fib1618: sorry
2015-09-24 16:38:51 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO finally made it to the zero line today with a reading of +4
2015-09-24 16:39:03 fib1618: so we can still be open to a technical bounce there as soon as Friday
2015-09-24 16:39:19 fib1618: while the other MCO's snapback up toward their zero lines
2015-09-24 16:40:02 fib1618: down to a -30 reading on the MID breadth MCO
2015-09-24 16:40:41 fib1618: as the MID breadth MCSUM settled today just above the -250 level (-247)
2015-09-24 16:40:52 fib1618: do we bounce...or fall through this area??
2015-09-24 16:41:23 fib1618: upside snapback to the SML breadth MCO zero line today
2015-09-24 16:42:07 fib1618: hard to tell if this is a leading indication of more strength to come near term or just traders evening up going into Friday
2015-09-24 16:42:34 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO today
2015-09-24 16:43:07 fib1618: so let's go ahead and look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions of better than 1%
2015-09-24 16:44:21 fib1618: and we'll watch to see if the current horizontal resistance level seen on the TM breadth MCSUM is going to be a formidable challenge or not
2015-09-24 16:44:25 fib1618: so...
2015-09-24 16:44:34 fib1618: not a lot of change from Tuesday
2015-09-24 16:44:55 fib1618: as the buyers are pretty much looking around and waiting for the other guy to make a commitment
2015-09-24 16:45:01 fib1618: but at the same time
2015-09-24 16:45:15 fib1618: the market continues to sag because of this lack of buyer confidence
2015-09-24 16:45:32 fib1618: but this can only take things just so far before the sellers give up as well
2015-09-24 16:46:20 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-09-24 16:46:47 fib1618: well...the good news is that the XLY breadth MCO is now minimally oversold
2015-09-24 16:47:28 fib1618: but the bad news is that the weakness of the last several days has now pushed the XLY breadth MCSUM below the levels of a week ago
2015-09-24 16:47:46 fib1618: with wide postings to the downside
2015-09-24 16:48:14 fib1618: so it's up to the buyers now
2015-09-24 16:48:48 fib1618: as they would have to close prices above Tuesday and Wednesday's closes in order to keep from see further price erosion in this sector
2015-09-24 16:49:16 fib1618: we'll call for a move to $73 for now
2015-09-24 16:49:28 fib1618: this can get real messy, real fast before we know it
2015-09-24 16:49:57 fib1618: need to see when the jobs data is coming out
2015-09-24 16:49:59 fib1618: one sec
2015-09-24 16:50:42 fib1618: ADP IS on Wednesday - 9/30
2015-09-24 16:50:47 fib1618: interesting
2015-09-24 16:50:58 fib1618: and jobs on the 2nd
2015-09-24 16:51:14 fib1618: so this sector could be playing off those numbers
2015-09-24 16:51:44 fib1618: for if there isn't enough income for purchases of longer lasting products
2015-09-24 16:51:55 fib1618: this is not going to sit well with this basket of issues
2015-09-24 16:52:30 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO is holding on to bullish control for now
2015-09-24 16:52:46 fib1618: as the XLP components continue to remain above their zero lines as well
2015-09-24 16:53:15 fib1618: prices are holding trend support
2015-09-24 16:53:41 fib1618: and the XLP breadth MCSUM is just now moving up and through its zero line
2015-09-24 16:54:05 fib1618: nice outside range day bar as well today for the XLP
2015-09-24 16:54:17 fib1618: if you're nimble enough
2015-09-24 16:54:30 fib1618: could be a good "catch and release" trade
2015-09-24 16:54:40 fib1618: with a stop at .10 below today's intraday lows
2015-09-24 16:55:07 fib1618: nice to see "something" that's somewhat positive
2015-09-24 16:55:39 fib1618: as we suspected last week
2015-09-24 16:55:51 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO did move down and through its zero line
2015-09-24 16:56:57 fib1618: as the XLE breadth MCSUM continues to struggle to add to its bottoming action
2015-09-24 16:57:08 fib1618: we'll see if the -1000 level holds or not
2015-09-24 16:57:20 fib1618: standing aside there
2015-09-24 16:57:37 fib1618: ah oh
2015-09-24 16:57:46 fib1618: a break below the zero line of the XLF breadth MCO on Tuesday
2015-09-24 16:57:50 fib1618: snapback on Wednesday
2015-09-24 16:57:53 fib1618: and lower low today
2015-09-24 16:58:33 fib1618: and the XLF breadth MCSUM is now rolling over to the downside just below its zero line
2015-09-24 16:59:45 fib1618: downside risk there though is only a point...to the October 2014 lows at $21.50
2015-09-24 17:00:00 fib1618: still...the cadence here is not at all positive
2015-09-24 17:00:38 fib1618: neither is the rhythm positive with the XLV breadth MCO
2015-09-24 17:01:11 fib1618: with the XLV breadth MCSUM finding resistance at the -500 level
2015-09-24 17:01:31 fib1618: but on the other hand
2015-09-24 17:01:39 fib1618: price is finding near term horizontal support
2015-09-24 17:01:50 fib1618: and the XLV breadth MCO is at the -50 level
2015-09-24 17:02:02 fib1618: with a -53
2015-09-24 17:02:25 fib1618: the XLI data looks miserable
2015-09-24 17:02:45 fib1618: as the XLI breadth MCO is now challenging the lows of 9/1
2015-09-24 17:02:55 fib1618: and here too
2015-09-24 17:03:12 fib1618: we had pattern resistance at the -500 level in the XLI breadth MCSUM
2015-09-24 17:03:20 fib1618: there's something not right here
2015-09-24 17:03:30 fib1618: this is weaker than I had hoped for at this stage
2015-09-24 17:03:52 fib1618: wondering now if we'll get something to work with at the beginning of October or not
2015-09-24 17:04:29 fib1618: new price lows in the XLB compared to the late August collapse
2015-09-24 17:04:49 fib1618: as the XLB breadth MCO continues to show absolutely no strength here
2015-09-24 17:05:13 fib1618: we do have, however, a small point change to work with
2015-09-24 17:05:47 fib1618: but finding resistance at the -1000 level this past week is not going to make it easy for the buyers to show any kind of muscle short term wise
2015-09-24 17:06:34 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO also broke below its zero line since last we last visited it
2015-09-24 17:07:15 fib1618: and showing little in the way of reflex toward both the zero line and the previous spikes on the chart seen at the beginning of the month
2015-09-24 17:08:25 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCO continues to trace out, what should be, a complex bullish structure above its zero line
2015-09-24 17:09:03 fib1618: as money continues desperately to find a home to where it can sheltered by any surprise bearish attacks
2015-09-24 17:09:08 fib1618: so...
2015-09-24 17:09:19 fib1618: we seeing more and more sectors sagging now
2015-09-24 17:09:44 fib1618: and this isn't what we should be seeing if we're 2 weeks out from a potential bottom
2015-09-24 17:10:11 fib1618: it's turning into more of a bear market now
2015-09-24 17:10:20 fib1618: as prices begin to show declines
2015-09-24 17:10:28 fib1618: but they're not sharp and short
2015-09-24 17:10:42 fib1618: but we're getting more of a "drip, drip, drip" type of action
2015-09-24 17:11:07 fib1618: thinking
2015-09-24 17:11:30 fib1618: if we start seeing breaks below the August lows in the MCSUM's
2015-09-24 17:11:50 fib1618: then we're probably in for a rough couple of months ahead...probably into the end of the year
2015-09-24 17:12:06 fib1618: and depending how deep we go
2015-09-24 17:12:11 fib1618: maybe into the spring of 2016
2015-09-24 17:12:22 fib1618: when thinking about this
2015-09-24 17:12:39 fib1618: use the XLE MCSUM structure of the last several months as a guide
2015-09-24 17:13:33 fib1618: these resistance areas that are holding above us on the MCSUM's are no bueno
2015-09-24 17:13:52 fib1618: no texture though on the MCO's keeps the bull fires burning for now
2015-09-24 17:13:59 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are doing
2015-09-24 17:14:36 fib1618: very little reflex action in the CVI's
2015-09-24 17:14:48 fib1618: that suggest a heavy weighting on the market right now
2015-09-24 17:15:02 fib1618: STVO's have now slammed lower to "oversold"
2015-09-24 17:15:27 fib1618: and we'll call the VTO's "oversold" as well
2015-09-24 17:15:48 fib1618: could it be "darkest before the dawn"?
2015-09-24 17:16:06 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .96
2015-09-24 17:16:18 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.38
2015-09-24 17:16:32 fib1618: and helping to keep prices from moving sharply lower
2015-09-24 17:16:52 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.05
2015-09-24 17:17:07 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.04
2015-09-24 17:17:22 fib1618: TM TRIN at .99
2015-09-24 17:17:34 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.16
2015-09-24 17:17:49 fib1618: "oversold" there as well
2015-09-24 17:17:56 fib1618: so....
2015-09-24 17:18:30 fib1618: it would seem that we continue to remain heavily weighted toward the sell side
2015-09-24 17:18:48 fib1618: but with several trending indicators already at extremes
2015-09-24 17:19:03 fib1618: it becomes difficult for prices to move down and stay down
2015-09-24 17:19:24 fib1618: again...we're dealing with the basketball in the deep in of the swimming pool
2015-09-24 17:19:30 fib1618: and trying to keep it under water
2015-09-24 17:19:44 fib1618: unless there is constant pressure in keeping it there, the ball is going to accelerate to above the water line
2015-09-24 17:20:01 fib1618: one moment and we'll look at the broader sectors and see what's going on
2015-09-24 17:22:00 fib1618: prices are deflating?
2015-09-24 17:22:04 fib1618: hmmmm
2015-09-24 17:23:25 fib1618: big high volume reversal in Brazil today (EWZ)
2015-09-24 17:24:56 fib1618: so far all of the global charts are negative with European iShares now trading below the August intraday price lows
2015-09-24 17:25:00 fib1618: not just the closing lows
2015-09-24 17:25:43 fib1618: not one positive chart for the global charts
2015-09-24 17:27:28 fib1618: exchanges are mixed
2015-09-24 17:27:41 fib1618: as the CME just today broke below its 200 day EMA
2015-09-24 17:28:46 fib1618: many of the sector charts are playing EMA tag with all three EMA's compressed right now
2015-09-24 17:29:00 fib1618: usually a sign that we could be bottoming...at least compressing
2015-09-24 17:29:09 fib1618: but we're sloppy in several areas
2015-09-24 17:30:09 fib1618: nice upside move in gold today
2015-09-24 17:30:25 fib1618: the only sector that's showing any kind of strength right now
2015-09-24 17:30:45 fib1618: there too we've been looking for an October bottom...could be that's on target
2015-09-24 17:31:14 fib1618: the market is wound up tighter than a snare drum right now
2015-09-24 17:31:51 fib1618: metals and mining issues are still making new lows (XME)
2015-09-24 17:32:31 fib1618: REITS have stabilized
2015-09-24 17:33:07 fib1618: that could be a good one to look if we get better signs that the October time frame is looking better for a potential bottom
2015-09-24 17:33:37 fib1618: retail in a bearish configuration now
2015-09-24 17:33:42 fib1618: first time I've seen that in a while
2015-09-24 17:34:32 fib1618: in fact
2015-09-24 17:34:38 fib1618: first time since the fall of 2011
2015-09-24 17:35:42 fib1618: looks like silver is bottoming
2015-09-24 17:35:58 fib1618: SLV
2015-09-24 17:36:53 fib1618: gosh...the entire market looks terrible
2015-09-24 17:37:16 fib1618: looks like Biotech is about to join the party
2015-09-24 17:38:16 fib1618: I'm seeing very little here that is even close to some sort of bottom
2015-09-24 17:38:40 fib1618: whoops..stay away from the PM stocks
2015-09-24 17:38:43 fib1618: looks like the metals rally is a trap
2015-09-24 17:39:25 fib1618: well...nothing good to report
2015-09-24 17:39:34 fib1618: so let's remain defensive
2015-09-24 17:39:38 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-24 17:40:12 fib1618: anybody seeing anything out there?
2015-09-24 17:42:27 fib1618: well...hopefully there will be another rally attempt to fulfill that technical obligation before we roll over again
2015-09-24 17:43:09 fib1618: boy...haven't seen things this bad, chart wise, since 2008
2015-09-24 17:43:40 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-24 17:43:45 fib1618: I'm going to call it a day
2015-09-24 17:43:50 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2015-09-24 17:43:59 fib1618: and we'll see what clues we can find next Tuesday
2015-09-24 17:44:01 fib1618: good night


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