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Posts: 4,900
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-23 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-23 16:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-23 16:00:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great and you?
2014-09-23 16:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine, thanks for asking!!
2014-09-23 16:01:00 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sure
2014-09-23 16:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market, however....
2014-09-23 16:01:32 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I have a question about that
2014-09-23 16:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure nuff
2014-09-23 16:02:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Last IT bottom and top both called by MCO divergences and
2014-09-23 16:02:59 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I was not able to take advantage till next trading day
2014-09-23 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..because you're dealing with close only data to be used from the next day forward
2014-09-23 16:03:47 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh!
2014-09-23 16:04:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Anything thing else to look at MCO?
2014-09-23 16:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you're doing here is a trend following system
2014-09-23 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the SPEED in which money is moving
2014-09-23 16:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you mean...
2014-09-23 16:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why did I give an all out cash position over the past weekend in the weekly breadth data review?
2014-09-23 16:05:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes and
2014-09-23 16:05:56 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: over time knowing at end of day can make a difference
2014-09-23 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...this is the time in which trades are "evened up"
2014-09-23 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if there is any imbalance it will be known at that time
2014-09-23 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-09-23 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we did know on Thursday was that we had only the large caps making new highs
2014-09-23 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while everything else decided that it didn't want to have anything to do with that
2014-09-23 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you had the lack of follow through to the upside in the MCO's on Friday
2014-09-23 16:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN....
2014-09-23 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we looked over the cumulative chats on Saturday
2014-09-23 16:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw that those cumulative charts that carry a large weighting as far as "buoyancy" is concerned were sharply declining
2014-09-23 16:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll note the reference to "my my" on the TSX charts in particular
2014-09-23 16:08:54 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-23 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things that can't be taught no matter who you follow is instinct
2014-09-23 16:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my spidey sense was not only tingling on Friday night
2014-09-23 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was an all out assault that something wasn't quite right when reviewing the week's data on Saturday
2014-09-23 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when the BETS came in at zero
2014-09-23 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was all that was needed to "prove otherwise"
2014-09-23 16:10:38 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Cant wait for my spidey sense day
2014-09-23 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am continuing to find that the BETS is a very powerful tool
2014-09-23 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll put it this way
2014-09-23 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have this sense within us
2014-09-23 16:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2014-09-23 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sense when you stomach is churning because you're nervous about a trade?
2014-09-23 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you are intimate with the market as long as I have been
2014-09-23 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm certainly not taking anything away from anyone here
2014-09-23 16:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you see things and know that unless something changes it's going to result in something specific
2014-09-23 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of those times
2014-09-23 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-09-23 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-09-23 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm pretty sure that we moved to lower lows today in many of the MCO's
2014-09-23 16:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about over the last couple of weeks
2014-09-23 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break below the recent lows in the MCO were going to confirm topping formation for most of the market indices
2014-09-23 16:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NYA specifically...a double top
2014-09-23 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you also have breadth in gold stocks moving to lower lows now
2014-09-23 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that isn't something in which is consistent to advancing stock prices
2014-09-23 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what we hear in the news
2014-09-23 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or whoever gives an opinion
2014-09-23 16:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is being taken away from investment at this time
2014-09-23 16:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also known as a tighter monetary policy
2014-09-23 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-09-23 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be a result of reducing QE policy
2014-09-23 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever the reason is
2014-09-23 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched upon last Tuesday
2014-09-23 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interest rates on anything longer than 1 year have been rising steadily in the note and bond pits for the last 6 months
2014-09-23 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do NOT underestimate those who carry a larger amount of currency in their trades
2014-09-23 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big money knows what's going on
2014-09-23 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are the "house"
2014-09-23 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (in essence)
2014-09-23 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2014-09-23 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last two days is a good start
2014-09-23 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we'll have to see if this thing holds at the August lows or not
2014-09-23 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not
2014-09-23 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have a large correction of up to 20%
2014-09-23 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing in this business is that you MUST do is listen to the market and be as flexible as it is
2014-09-23 16:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully those who read this past weekend's Breadth Data review took heed and at least applied solid stops to their longs
2014-09-23 16:19:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right
2014-09-23 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..any other questions?
2014-09-23 16:20:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: No not here and thanks for the detailed answer
2014-09-23 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2014-09-23 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and see what kind of damage we have to work with
2014-09-23 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after taking out the lows of last week
2014-09-23 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued lower today
2014-09-23 16:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finished up at just below the low point at the end of July
2014-09-23 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still slightly above the February lows
2014-09-23 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the sake of the trading range outline on the BETS chart this past weekend
2014-09-23 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that we don't see lower lows in this time frame
2014-09-23 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise this would be a whisper that we will likely retrace much of what was made since the February lows
2014-09-23 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-09-23 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-23 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a large expansion gap to the downside telling one and all that the bears now have control of the action
2014-09-23 16:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a -92 reading
2014-09-23 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO is now highly "oversold"
2014-09-23 16:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see a reflex bounce higher as soon as Wednesday
2014-09-23 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what this also tells us is
2014-09-23 16:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it now becomes harder for the sellers to move to a more negative reading
2014-09-23 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or putting this another way
2014-09-23 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be difficult to go much above 90 MPH without increasing the chances of an accident
2014-09-23 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after failing to move above the previous weeks high point
2014-09-23 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO moved sharply lower on Monday
2014-09-23 16:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showed a bit of downside follow through today
2014-09-23 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a -72 reading, however, this instructs us that money is beginning to move back into interest rate sensitive issues as was the expectation over the weekend
2014-09-23 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be too surprising to see the yield on the 10 year breaking back lower now...let me check
2014-09-23 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, it started on Friday
2014-09-23 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today we went back below the 200 day EMA
2014-09-23 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now down over 3.6% in 3 days
2014-09-23 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know, that's a huge move in a short amount of time
2014-09-23 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the market continues to slip here
2014-09-23 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll be back down a 1/4 point in less than a week
2014-09-23 16:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the longer term good news in this
2014-09-23 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if the Bond CEF A/D line moves back to higher highs
2014-09-23 16:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this will also help strengthen the idea that the lower level of this trading range will hold
2014-09-23 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that new price highs in equities will later be seen
2014-09-23 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we can't get too excited here on either side of the fence
2014-09-23 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and must remain disciplined and see how this correctional process unwinds
2014-09-23 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as longer term students know
2014-09-23 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will give us plenty of time to adjust
2014-09-23 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: case in point...who would had thought that a "go to cash" signal would come up with the SPX, OEX and Dow at all time highs?
2014-09-23 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market, of course
2014-09-23 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are all mere conduits
2014-09-23 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just go with the flow
2014-09-23 16:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping with the NYSE breadth MCSUM for a moment
2014-09-23 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have to be fully prepared for the probability of a "crash like event" occurring as the NYSE breadth MCSUM moves down and through its zero line
2014-09-23 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's +118 reading
2014-09-23 16:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can happen as soon as Friday
2014-09-23 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and the idea of a tradable low for early this week is probably not going to materialize
2014-09-23 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though
2014-09-23 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE numbers are consistent to this idea
2014-09-23 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday was a 57
2014-09-23 16:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today was...have to double check - but I think it was 73
2014-09-23 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a lot of put players out there right now
2014-09-23 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only problem this time around for the bulls is
2014-09-23 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the flow of money is moving in the right direction with this data
2014-09-23 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at least for the sake of keeping these speculators around, they could be right
2014-09-23 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's happened before
2014-09-23 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to remember here is...
2014-09-23 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYSE breadth MCSUM has been above its zero line now for over a year
2014-09-23 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be the longest time in history without moving below the zero line
2014-09-23 16:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the last two times the NYSE MCSUM approached zero it "magically" found support
2014-09-23 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be another successful challenge as well
2014-09-23 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2014-09-23 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do break below the zero line
2014-09-23 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it won't be pretty because of this same longer term support breaking
2014-09-23 16:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just checked
2014-09-23 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last time the NYSE MCSUM was below its zero line was....
2014-09-23 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exactly 1 year ago...mid September
2014-09-23 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so just as a reasonable expectation
2014-09-23 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would figure that in order to provide longer term market balance
2014-09-23 16:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not just a matter that will we see negative MCSUM's just a matter of when it happens
2014-09-23 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...onward
2014-09-23 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-09-23 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that after it found snapback zero line resistance last week
2014-09-23 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has now moved to its lowest level since the middle of July
2014-09-23 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-09-23 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all remember the caution signal that was given last week when this tool not only wasn't able to move back above the +250 level
2014-09-23 16:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when it went down and through its zero line
2014-09-23 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was indicating that a "failure to succeed" was in progress
2014-09-23 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when push comes to shove
2014-09-23 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always the broadest measurement of money flow that gives the best and most reliable readings
2014-09-23 16:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with only the top 100 stocks in the NDX doing their best in keeping things from falling apart
2014-09-23 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes a great deal of sense that if the broader market wasn't going to show strength to help out the 100
2014-09-23 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any new highs that we might have seen were going to be only temporary ones
2014-09-23 16:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2014-09-23 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has also moved below its mid September lows today
2014-09-23 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that balances out any strength that we saw on Thursday
2014-09-23 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX components
2014-09-23 16:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% is still above its zero line
2014-09-23 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so taken together
2014-09-23 16:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that on any further price declines that the NDX group of stocks will tend to lag
2014-09-23 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while any reflex rallies will show better positive performance than the broader based NASDAQ
2014-09-23 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the losses today
2014-09-23 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NDX was indeed more "buoyant" on a weak day by being only down 10 points while the Composite was down 19
2014-09-23 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with these breaks to lower lows in the NASDAQ and NDX MCO's
2014-09-23 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now substantially increased the chances that the September price lows will be taken out
2014-09-23 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe tomorrow...but certainly by Friday
2014-09-23 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: generally speaking
2014-09-23 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price by 1-2 days on a short term trending basis
2014-09-23 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a short term trending basis is about 4-6 weeks
2014-09-23 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX
2014-09-23 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and boy the price pattern looks like a classic Elliott irregular flat
2014-09-23 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except that the SPX breadth MCO has now collapsed to the downside
2014-09-23 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled today with a -81 reading
2014-09-23 16:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after failing to build on last Thursday's break above the MCO zero line
2014-09-23 16:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is an irregular flat
2014-09-23 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you Elliotticians out there
2014-09-23 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a larger Wave A
2014-09-23 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means we'll be stuck  moving net sideways for probably into the end of the year
2014-09-23 17:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mind you...we do not have confirmation of this at this point
2014-09-23 17:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just the possible expectation
2014-09-23 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if the market is sensing a change in Congressional leadership in November?
2014-09-23 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX components
2014-09-23 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 5% Trend moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-23 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a technical expectation of a market bounce as soon as tomorrow
2014-09-23 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while money continues to move out of the market
2014-09-23 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have what looks to be a rally failure in progress in the OEX now
2014-09-23 17:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it was important for this MCO to move back above the +50 level last week and didn't do so and down we went
2014-09-23 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do note the inherent strength here as compared to the SPX MCO
2014-09-23 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX components continue to suggest corrective activity
2014-09-23 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what could happen is...
2014-09-23 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a split market for this correctional phase
2014-09-23 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the large caps tend to drift sideways
2014-09-23 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while those issues that use their basis of growth as a direct link to the cost of money moving lower
2014-09-23 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2014-09-23 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: value is now king
2014-09-23 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while growth is being tossed aside
2014-09-23 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to know if one is trying to decide which market to work with as far as direction is concerned
2014-09-23 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a rally failure in place with the Dow breadth MCO's lack of being able to move above +50
2014-09-23 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so initial support there at 16,980
2014-09-23 17:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could turn out to be the actual ceiling of the trading range
2014-09-23 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the top of July and September the ceiling
2014-09-23 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the August lows as the base
2014-09-23 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the recent highs above the ceiling as being the failure
2014-09-23 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the generals tend to get slaughtered unless the troops clear the way for them first
2014-09-23 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: uggh
2014-09-23 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new lows in the MID breadth MCO
2014-09-23 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the short term
2014-09-23 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's bad news
2014-09-23 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the longer term though
2014-09-23 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good news
2014-09-23 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're in the process of setting a price floor in the index
2014-09-23 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of +233 in the MID breadth MCSUM
2014-09-23 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're about 3-4 trading days away from reaching the zero line
2014-09-23 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oooooo
2014-09-23 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the beginning of the month next week
2014-09-23 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jobs data
2014-09-23 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we'll reach the MID MCSUM zero line before then
2014-09-23 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market seems to be reaching for something here
2014-09-23 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line on Monday
2014-09-23 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the index has only declined a little over 2% so far
2014-09-23 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2014-09-23 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did move down and through the 200 day EMA today on the price chart
2014-09-23 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the RUT
2014-09-23 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the Russell
2014-09-23 17:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm..
2014-09-23 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if a SOB pattern is setting up here on the SML
2014-09-23 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SOB..."Sign of the Bear"
2014-09-23 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure is sloppy...outside chance of a head and shoulders top as well
2014-09-23 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look a bit closer
2014-09-23 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough call with those two volume spikes in June on whether they would count for higher volume than the left shoulder
2014-09-23 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-09-23 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whenever we see a rounding top like we're seeing right now in the SML
2014-09-23 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a warning sign of trend exhaustion
2014-09-23 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this must be respected for what it might imply
2014-09-23 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO itself settled today with a -92 reading
2014-09-23 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're highly "oversold" there as well
2014-09-23 17:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and entitled to a reflex
2014-09-23 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the TM breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-23 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this allowed the price pattern of the Wilshire 5000 to break its September lows
2014-09-23 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this adds to the odds that the large caps will likely do the same in the next couple of days
2014-09-23 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-09-23 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like last weeks myriad of warning signs have now come home to roost
2014-09-23 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the rally failures in the OEX and Dow
2014-09-23 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the highly "oversold" readings in many of the MCO's now
2014-09-23 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longs will now have to step aside and either stay in cash for a while
2014-09-23 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if you're nimble, and know to work in bear market environments, it's time to put your bear claws on for the next couple of weeks and have at it
2014-09-23 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if the volume side agrees
2014-09-23 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and the XLE is in a position for an accident very soon
2014-09-23 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now at $92 support
2014-09-23 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it looks like it will break it tomorrow
2014-09-23 17:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO is moving in sync to the downside now
2014-09-23 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as is the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2014-09-23 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving up their divergences in relation to their breadth cousins from last week
2014-09-23 17:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO is actually leading breadth to the downside now
2014-09-23 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the NAAD and NAUD lines - one moment
2014-09-23 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fresh lows in the NAAD line
2014-09-23 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not good
2014-09-23 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but "heavy money" is still not letting go as yet
2014-09-23 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NAUD line still above its rising bottoms line
2014-09-23 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we're seeing the breaking to lower MCO lows
2014-09-23 17:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the speed in which money is moving out is starting to pick up now...from that of rotational to all out selling
2014-09-23 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then when we look at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2014-09-23 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amount of money supporting prices continues to show good character
2014-09-23 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will change as the MCSUM's begin to move down and through our 500 increment levels
2014-09-23 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-09-23 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ should hold fairly well here
2014-09-23 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all things considered
2014-09-23 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a +1252 reading in the NDX volume MCSUM
2014-09-23 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below the +1250 level will begin to show a more broader amount of selling in this basket of issues
2014-09-23 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must continue to remind ourselves
2014-09-23 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with such a high MCSUM reading
2014-09-23 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be a struggle for the sellers to push prices in their direction on a consistent basis
2014-09-23 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as the QQQ was the place to play on the long side last week
2014-09-23 17:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's NOT the place to play the short side
2014-09-23 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it will generally lag those issues that are already weak
2014-09-23 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weak get weaker as the strong become stronger
2014-09-23 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually
2014-09-23 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before any anticipated wash out
2014-09-23 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be the NDX probably giving us that signal as it plays the final round of "catch up" when all other issues have already been "trashed"
2014-09-23 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jumping to the OEX volume MCO
2014-09-23 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too the +50 level was just too much to overcome
2014-09-23 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it we couldn't get above the July highs in the OEX volume MCSUM
2014-09-23 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the unwinding process begins there
2014-09-23 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-09-23 17:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless there is a dramatic change
2014-09-23 17:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see things correct into the early part of November now
2014-09-23 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making this year's October an interesting one
2014-09-23 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO looks sick
2014-09-23 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with tops beneath tops controlling the pattern
2014-09-23 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've pointed to before, note the downside texture here
2014-09-23 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we move down...pop up for a breath...move lower again...not any of the straight line movements that are part and parcel of weak flows in money
2014-09-23 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCSUM also moved down and through its zero line today
2014-09-23 17:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the weakest market is, and continues to be, the small caps
2014-09-23 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why anything that is of this capitalization should be sold at this time
2014-09-23 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not already sold
2014-09-23 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO is now testing the lows of July
2014-09-23 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any break here would then allow prices the summer lows at 20,250
2014-09-23 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is 627 points lower from current levels
2014-09-23 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-23 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we are almost in gear to the downside now
2014-09-23 17:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there are pockets of strength still holding things from falling apart
2014-09-23 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weakest areas are in the secondaries and the small caps
2014-09-23 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID caps coming up fast in joining these two groups
2014-09-23 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the large caps remain the strongest right now
2014-09-23 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the expectation after our rally failure is for continued internal deterioration until we can, once again, find a spot to call "fairly valued"
2014-09-23 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets look at the volume oscillators
2014-09-23 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a somewhat mixed picture on Friday
2014-09-23 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have the CVI's approaching climactic behavior
2014-09-23 17:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the STVO's are neutral to "overbought"
2014-09-23 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's back to pointing to neutral
2014-09-23 17:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all
2014-09-23 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a lot of damage will need to be done before we have a sufficient enough wash out to begin again the process of constructing a new foundational base from where stocks can then rally
2014-09-23 17:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.12
2014-09-23 17:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no real selling yet
2014-09-23 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2014-09-23 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call that neutral for now
2014-09-23 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side can take control
2014-09-23 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jeez
2014-09-23 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .74
2014-09-23 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom pickers
2014-09-23 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see why given where the NASDAQ price action is in relation to the price lows from earlier this month
2014-09-23 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the NAAD line breaking to new lows
2014-09-23 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this price level will not hold
2014-09-23 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what causes these "mini crash like events"
2014-09-23 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being conditioned to buy the lows
2014-09-23 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then having the trap door open up on you because someone forgot to lock it
2014-09-23 17:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OPEN 10 at .92
2014-09-23 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2014-09-23 17:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not good news
2014-09-23 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .85
2014-09-23 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2014-09-23 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-09-23 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that the last two days of decline has not really ruffled any feathers here
2014-09-23 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe they're hearing things under the hood
2014-09-23 17:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing in the way of giving up
2014-09-23 17:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get higher readings of above 1.10 in the Open 10's
2014-09-23 17:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is now in a position to "grind" lower
2014-09-23 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this grinding effect is different from "pulling the rug out" type event
2014-09-23 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as when you pull out the rug you want an immediate action to keep the wall of worry intact
2014-09-23 17:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when you grind delays the eventual bottom until the greatest amount of money is parted by the greatest amount of traders
2014-09-23 17:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they begin to play the game of picking a bottom
2014-09-23 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which doesn't come as soon as they would like
2014-09-23 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need to continue to be defensive
2014-09-23 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be patient and disciplined
2014-09-23 17:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see how the market wants to shake things up
2014-09-23 17:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2014-09-23 17:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen enough evidence to be "proven otherwise" as far as any re-initiation is concerned
2014-09-23 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we'll just have to monitor things as we move along
2014-09-23 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing that it's going to take at least 2-3 weeks to build any kind of foundational support
2014-09-23 17:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-23 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank goodness that the volume MCSUM's are still above the +500 level (by and large)
2014-09-23 17:54:56 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks Fib for the great market insight
2014-09-23 17:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important in this business to understand that capital appreciation is nice, but capital preservation is paramount
2014-09-23 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no use in making money unless you can keep it
2014-09-23 17:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's too much swirling about to be stubborn
2014-09-23 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing about this though
2014-09-23 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we'll have something new to work with and talk about
2014-09-23 17:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having the same old for so long and you run out of superlatives to say [smile]
2014-09-23 17:58:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: We are not going anywhere and can not wait for Thursday
2014-09-23 17:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else?
2014-09-23 17:58:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Not here 
2014-09-23 17:58:29 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: Thank you Fib
2014-09-23 17:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem..we're all in this together!
2014-09-23 17:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-09-23 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-09-23 17:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-09-23 17:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll this all again on Thursday
2014-09-23 17:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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