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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-09-23 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-09-23 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-09-23 16:00:31 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: good - how are u 2day
2010-09-23 16:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2day?
2010-09-23 16:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what are you 12 years old?
2010-09-23 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-23 16:01:25 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: that's where I learned the abbreviations! from a 12 year old!
2010-09-23 16:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kewl!
2010-09-23 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-23 16:01:47 [Message] Rainy -> Chat:
2010-09-23 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-09-23 16:02:20 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: i see the market was finally down today
2010-09-23 16:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gee...did you think that the market would go up indefinitely?
2010-09-23 16:02:59 [Message] Rainy -> Chat: lol
2010-09-23 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...give me a moment, and we'll get started
2010-09-23 16:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2010-09-23 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also broke below the zero line as well
2010-09-23 16:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now leaves us with confirmed bearish divergence between the CO MCO and NYA index
2010-09-23 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next technical expectation would be for a snapback to or towards the zero line
2010-09-23 16:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a reading of -20, that shouldn't be too hard to handle by tomorrow
2010-09-23 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then, what we thought might happen on Tuesday seems to be working out nicely
2010-09-23 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our near term strategy of looking to short on an intraday basis after we get our bounce...probably sometime next week
2010-09-23 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that on a trend basis, all we're doing here is correcting the excesses of the September rally
2010-09-23 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we see the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM get below the +500 level
2010-09-23 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything should be played as a daily trade
2010-09-23 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run
2010-09-23 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of the composite data
2010-09-23 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2010-09-23 16:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is in lock step with the CO only MCO data with a reading of -20
2010-09-23 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again we should see a bounce towards the zero line as soon as tomorrow
2010-09-23 16:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCSUM's
2010-09-23 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO breadth MCSUM is indeed finding resistance at the +250 level
2010-09-23 16:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the composite breadth MCSUM is finding it hard going above the +750 level
2010-09-23 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again we have a great example of how these 250 point increments can have a determining factor to our trading
2010-09-23 16:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term support on both of the NYSE MCSUM's come at the rising bottoms line that can be drawn between the bottoms seen in early July and late August
2010-09-23 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM, the line intersects at around the +500 level
2010-09-23 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that would be our downside target for now
2010-09-23 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how things unwind after we get there, and then measure the ensuing initial bounce off this same line
2010-09-23 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...those who have been playing long, should now be on a hold signal
2010-09-23 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no buying
2010-09-23 16:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since the composite MCSUM is as high as it is
2010-09-23 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing long positions should be on a disciplined basis...the use of stops
2010-09-23 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let the market churn it out
2010-09-23 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the CO data
2010-09-23 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the MCO components
2010-09-23 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both the 10% and 5% trends are in and around their zero line
2010-09-23 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also calls for a bounce as soon as tomorrow
2010-09-23 16:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the composite NYSE MCO components
2010-09-23 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the MCO itself is below its zero line
2010-09-23 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components themselves remain above their zero lines
2010-09-23 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means...correction
2010-09-23 16:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the start of anything that will trend to the downside
2010-09-23 16:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was interesting today
2010-09-23 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that most of the selling occurred in the last hour
2010-09-23 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is good information to know and understand
2010-09-23 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the direction of price tends to be hidden until the last 90 minutes of trading
2010-09-23 16:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...keeping the majority from going short was a simple merchandising procedure
2010-09-23 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a hard open lower
2010-09-23 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rallied all the way back to unchanged
2010-09-23 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this pretty much took care of anyone who got "too smart"
2010-09-23 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that was out the way
2010-09-23 16:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market basically churned the rest of the day
2010-09-23 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the last hour or so giving the majority no time to react
2010-09-23 16:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: typical of trending price moves
2010-09-23 16:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this gives us another angle in believing that a correction of either price, time, or both, is now underway
2010-09-23 16:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO closed right on its zero line today
2010-09-23 16:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is supporting a -23 which is basically neutral as well
2010-09-23 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now we have both the short term and intermediate term of the trend of money flow at dead neutral
2010-09-23 16:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is balance between buyers and sellers
2010-09-23 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2010-09-23 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is getting ready to take control
2010-09-23 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the bulls have pretty much had the reigns over the last month
2010-09-23 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ MCSUM still below its zero line
2010-09-23 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly probable that the bears are going to attempt to make a statement
2010-09-23 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it as the offense of a football team has now turned the ball over the opposition and now it's their turn to see if they drive down field
2010-09-23 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-09-23 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you use the game of football in all of this, it tends to give a better understanding of how breadth analysis works
2010-09-23 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line can be the 50 yard line
2010-09-23 16:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything above or below it that "team" controls the ball
2010-09-23 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ MCO components are also at their zero line now
2010-09-23 16:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again, a bounce would be indicated
2010-09-23 16:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we always talk about
2010-09-23 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things have a certain rhythm to them
2010-09-23 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that once you see (and feel) this cadence
2010-09-23 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes easier to time your entrees and exit points
2010-09-23 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is basically doing what we thought would happen on Tuesday after it broke near term support in its structure
2010-09-23 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the NYSE and NASDAQ composite
2010-09-23 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO is still well above its zero line
2010-09-23 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2010-09-23 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components remain in a bullish crossover configuration
2010-09-23 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if you feel the need to short...do so with care
2010-09-23 16:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at this mornings open
2010-09-23 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow was down...what? 90 points
2010-09-23 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NASDAQ was close to unchanged
2010-09-23 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe down 12?
2010-09-23 16:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it lead the market to recovery
2010-09-23 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason, of course, is that the trend of breadth in the top 100 stocks was able to keep the composite from falling apart
2010-09-23 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from it, was able to rally that much better
2010-09-23 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL was up over 4 points this morning
2010-09-23 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know how it closed
2010-09-23 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's one example
2010-09-23 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when we talk about the market being "out of sync" or "choppy" it's because of these different levels of monetary interest in the products being offered
2010-09-23 16:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-09-23 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO breadth NYSE MCSUM was only at +250 while the composite was at +750
2010-09-23 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2010-09-23 16:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO MCSUM had broken above its August highs...but the composite MCSUM did not
2010-09-23 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: out of sync is out of sync
2010-09-23 16:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ideally want everything to work in unison
2010-09-23 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it doesn't, we tend to have periods of "correction" to clear these problems up
2010-09-23 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why they call it corrections
2010-09-23 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every trend starts in sync
2010-09-23 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eventually it gets ahead of itself or drags
2010-09-23 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market's job then becomes to "correct" these problems
2010-09-23 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be excesses
2010-09-23 16:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but could also be...what's the opposite of excess?
2010-09-23 16:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dry periods?
2010-09-23 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that doesn't cover it
2010-09-23 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I hope you know what I mean
2010-09-23 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inadequacies
2010-09-23 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for lack of a better descriptor
2010-09-23 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX price pattern
2010-09-23 16:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can now see the high level consolidation pattern being etched out now
2010-09-23 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a choppy sideways movement that's developed as a pause point in the pattern
2010-09-23 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ composite index has now snapped back to its breakout level
2010-09-23 16:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll probably see this kind of thing in a lot of tonight's index charts
2010-09-23 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these snapback points also suggest a bounce off these same lines of potential support
2010-09-23 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's another reason why we should expect a bounce as soon as tomorrow
2010-09-23 16:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO has now moved just below its zero line
2010-09-23 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fulfilling its obligation to move back to neutral
2010-09-23 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the SPX breadth MCSUM is just shy of moving above its +500 level which is key to the ongoing strength of a advancing price structure
2010-09-23 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without being able to move above +500
2010-09-23 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes very difficult for price patterns to show intermediate term strength of structure
2010-09-23 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the MCSUM...this is the point of escape velocity
2010-09-23 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is named this because it is the demarcation point in what makes an intermediate term uptrend just that
2010-09-23 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2010-09-23 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connecting the summer bottoms to form a trend line
2010-09-23 16:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the intersect point of this line comes in at our famous 1050 level
2010-09-23 16:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so remembering back to Tuesday's discussion
2010-09-23 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1025 level is pretty much dead now because of the MCSUM breakouts of Monday
2010-09-23 16:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 1050 level being a slim chance of seeing this number
2010-09-23 16:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's interesting that the angle of ascent here
2010-09-23 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks to be going at about 2-5 points a day
2010-09-23 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we allow for the market to bounce and then decline again next week
2010-09-23 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and into the first week of October
2010-09-23 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this trendline would then find support at the 1075 level which was our likely downside target previously discussed
2010-09-23 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in a perfect technical world...
2010-09-23 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a nice blueprint for now
2010-09-23 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback completed on the OEX breadth MCO
2010-09-23 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce is indicated there
2010-09-23 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over the next couple of days
2010-09-23 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be sure to watch the interplay between each MCO and its components
2010-09-23 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will help us in determining a market that could trend from that of only correcting
2010-09-23 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO is below its zero line, but the components are above, it's a correction
2010-09-23 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO and components are below zero, but the components are in a bullish crossover, this is also a correctional state
2010-09-23 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this information, you can then determine the best course of action when you add in the position (level) of the respected MCSUM
2010-09-23 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-09-23 16:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO and its components are below zero, and on a crossover sell, but the MCSUM remains above the zero line
2010-09-23 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is out of sync between these two time periods
2010-09-23 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and chop will be the result
2010-09-23 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not until the MCSUM joins the shorter term trend in the same direction will you be able develop a price trend
2010-09-23 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until something like this happens, you play the game of in and out
2010-09-23 16:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM gets closer to zero, the better the chance of a successful short
2010-09-23 16:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equal and opposite would apply to longs
2010-09-23 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the underlying trend point you in the right (price) direction
2010-09-23 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't force it
2010-09-23 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just go with the flow
2010-09-23 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also went below its zero line just as the MID breadth MCSUM is testing its +250 resistance line
2010-09-23 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation with the SML data
2010-09-23 16:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we have the SML breadth MCSUM just slightly above its zero line
2010-09-23 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the price structure of the SML
2010-09-23 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might indicate that if any one group of stocks is going to again move all the way to the lower boundary of its indecision pattern...this would be the one
2010-09-23 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you might want to look at the RUT products in playing this
2010-09-23 16:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the same kind of situation with the total market data as well
2010-09-23 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...here's what we have
2010-09-23 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have bear divergence in place on a short term basis
2010-09-23 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a bounce higher in the market over the next 1-3 trading days
2010-09-23 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could include higher price highs for the current structures
2010-09-23 16:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a more elegant correction should then take place starting sometime next week
2010-09-23 16:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2010-09-23 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this next correction should be the last one before we break out of this larger indecision pattern that's been controlling the action for the better part of this entire year
2010-09-23 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so continue to remain vigilant in your due diligence of making your grocery list
2010-09-23 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions so far?
2010-09-23 16:55:08 [Message] tracca -> Chat: higher high is a high that is higher than the highest we had last week?
2010-09-23 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably
2010-09-23 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it as a 5th wave
2010-09-23 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current sideways movement would that of wave 4
2010-09-23 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you know the basics of Elliott?
2010-09-23 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in its simplistic form
2010-09-23 16:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott methodology gives us a way to "label" a price structure
2010-09-23 16:56:24 [Message] tracca -> Chat: yes i do
2010-09-23 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what Elliott found that (to our advantage) is that price structures that trend unwind in a 5 sequences or waves
2010-09-23 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...good
2010-09-23 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then a higher price high...will produce further divergence
2010-09-23 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then down we go below the MCO zero line and wave "A"
2010-09-23 16:57:38 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I see what you see now
2010-09-23 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-09-23 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's a fun fact to help in labeling structures
2010-09-23 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I describe this well enough to understand
2010-09-23 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO makes a divergent bottom
2010-09-23 16:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it then moves above the zero line
2010-09-23 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which accompanies wave 1
2010-09-23 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 2 then corrects this thrust period from the divergence
2010-09-23 16:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and provides a foundational bottom (internally) from where wave 3 makes the highest extreme in the trend measured by the MCO
2010-09-23 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the fun fact is...
2010-09-23 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will always have confirmation of a 4th wave only when the MCO is able to take out the low (or high) of the wave 2 MCO extreme
2010-09-23 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 5 then diverges with the peak in the MCO extreme (momentum)
2010-09-23 17:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then down you go below the zero line
2010-09-23 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to take our current example
2010-09-23 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had small divergence on Tuesday
2010-09-23 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that divergence was that of the peak of a smaller wave 5 of the larger 3rd wave (on the daily)
2010-09-23 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now broken below the same degree of trend 2nd wave bottom
2010-09-23 17:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means we're that degree of trend's 4th wave
2010-09-23 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (gee, I hope I'm making sense)
2010-09-23 17:02:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have Google 5 up pegged for about $21 once the 4 is done, fwiw
2010-09-23 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you get wave 5 to complete the whole structure
2010-09-23 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sounds good to me
2010-09-23 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what?
2010-09-23 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 3-4% move?
2010-09-23 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be reasonable
2010-09-23 17:03:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, great for weekly options!
2010-09-23 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-09-23 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too
2010-09-23 17:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using a slightly different look at the same thing
2010-09-23 17:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing that with the NYSE breadth MCSUM still in "overbought" territory
2010-09-23 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only does it suggest that we should expect any near term surprises to the upside
2010-09-23 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds shorting...just yet...is not the better percentage play
2010-09-23 17:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will come
2010-09-23 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have to wait a bit for the odds to increase in the favor of this same trade
2010-09-23 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...of course...you just play it as a daily play
2010-09-23 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the sectors
2010-09-23 17:06:27 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you fib, great lesson
2010-09-23 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO has now moved back down to its zero line
2010-09-23 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pleasure
2010-09-23 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...there's a reason why the markets trade the way they do
2010-09-23 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing random about them
2010-09-23 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they pulse
2010-09-23 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have a cadence
2010-09-23 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing just "happens" without a set up
2010-09-23 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on Tuesday...we saw our first crack in the uptrend from the August lows
2010-09-23 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be surprised on how the market exhausted itself today
2010-09-23 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could feel it coming
2010-09-23 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-09-23 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM is now starting to find resistance here at the +500 level
2010-09-23 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the 500 level is very important as to the character of a trend
2010-09-23 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a rest here would be beneficial
2010-09-23 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 10% in 3 weeks is not bad
2010-09-23 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO also moved lower today
2010-09-23 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLP breadth MCSUM is now "overbought" with a +872 reading
2010-09-23 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the upside objective for the price pattern itself of testing the April highs has been achieved
2010-09-23 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we can all agree that a pause here would not only be expected, but something needed for the overall health of the price structure itself
2010-09-23 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let it happen
2010-09-23 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to look over the horizon
2010-09-23 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO shows a great example of what we should witness of the next couple of days
2010-09-23 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you see a bounce off the zero line
2010-09-23 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a higher high in the price pattern
2010-09-23 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down and through the zero line we went today
2010-09-23 17:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCSUM
2010-09-23 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that the likelihood of this happening was being told by the "oversold" readings in this indicator
2010-09-23 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we've turned lower from the -500 level
2010-09-23 17:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it always amazes me how these 250 incremental points on the MCSUM do their magic
2010-09-23 17:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I really have no concrete answers on why this happens...only that it does
2010-09-23 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and frankly...it's a very powerful piece of information that no one ever speaks of
2010-09-23 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact lol
2010-09-23 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLE breadth MCSUM and its peaks over the last 4 months
2010-09-23 17:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what do you see?
2010-09-23 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first peak was at -750
2010-09-23 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the second at +250
2010-09-23 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now at -500
2010-09-23 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2010-09-23 17:19:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: where can I look at the xle breadth mcsum?
2010-09-23 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and definitely a good example of a bear market pattern
2010-09-23 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't have DP?
2010-09-23 17:19:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, I do
2010-09-23 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here you go - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_XLE.html
2010-09-23 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see it?
2010-09-23 17:20:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-23 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...look at the top in May!
2010-09-23 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +1000
2010-09-23 17:20:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how do I get to there, sorry
2010-09-23 17:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best way to get to the charts is that if you click on the chart you see now it will take you to the next sector series...click it
2010-09-23 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF
2010-09-23 17:21:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-23 17:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we start with the CO only data
2010-09-23 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you click on that chart, and then those in succession, it will take you through the whole series
2010-09-23 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-23 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can do that on any series of technical charts at DP
2010-09-23 17:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN
2010-09-23 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume oscillators...etc
2010-09-23 17:22:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thx
2010-09-23 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes it easy
2010-09-23 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problemo
2010-09-23 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...speaking of the XLF
2010-09-23 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard sell off today
2010-09-23 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see this in the XLF breadth MCO which is now minimally "oversold" with a -57 reading
2010-09-23 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the price pattern!
2010-09-23 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we stressed that until we were able to close above 15
2010-09-23 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the internals were looking constructive
2010-09-23 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we needed this point of resistance to be violated before we expose ourselves to the longs
2010-09-23 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also
2010-09-23 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we just talked about on Tuesday
2010-09-23 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that what usually happens during the structure of a wall of worry advance
2010-09-23 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the sector, or whatever was bothering the market during the larger correctional period, will usually be the first excuse used that a top has again been seen
2010-09-23 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we specifically talked about the financials
2010-09-23 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-09-23 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the markets job now to make sure that the majority won't think that anything has changed
2010-09-23 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will use the same excuses as before...but the price decay won't be as large
2010-09-23 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in Elliott psychology
2010-09-23 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the make up of wave 2 structures
2010-09-23 17:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as Spooky and I were discussing
2010-09-23 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we might be witnessing an extended 3rd wave higher
2010-09-23 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that wave one is close to completion
2010-09-23 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then wave 2 will have all of the emotion of the actual price bottom last year...but at a higher price level
2010-09-23 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again...we need to watch not so much that the financials might be leading the turn in the short term trend right now
2010-09-23 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we need to really concentrate on the internals that make up the XLF show constructive qualities
2010-09-23 17:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example...bottoms above bottoms in the MCO
2010-09-23 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with maybe...bullish divergence thrown in on any lower price lows
2010-09-23 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not looking at the obvious...what's on the surface
2010-09-23 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're peeling away the layers of the onion to see what's going on underneath where all the "flavor" hides
2010-09-23 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's easy to look at something as say "look!"
2010-09-23 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those who make better trading decisions are always looking 2 steps ahead of everyone else
2010-09-23 17:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just don't want to get caught up in "see...I told you so"
2010-09-23 17:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what the market wants us to do
2010-09-23 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slight of hand
2010-09-23 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV data continues to look very good here
2010-09-23 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so here's a good example
2010-09-23 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the XLE looks like poo poo
2010-09-23 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV looks like it can withstand any correctional period that we might see better than the XLE (obviously) but also against several other sectors as well
2010-09-23 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where trend trading has its distinct advantages
2010-09-23 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why buying and holding is not recommended
2010-09-23 17:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to stay as agile as the market is
2010-09-23 17:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is constantly rotating
2010-09-23 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's our job to recognize this and then find ways to follow (exploit) it
2010-09-23 17:34:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: once you get the ebb and flow right, trading here is quite nice
2010-09-23 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes easier during trending periods
2010-09-23 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you become smarter when things are choppy
2010-09-23 17:35:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep!
2010-09-23 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to keep in mind that the market is generally correcting imbalances 80% of the time
2010-09-23 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so trending moves only happen 20% of time
2010-09-23 17:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's far more important to learn to trade during the tougher indecision times than it is when things are easier
2010-09-23 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money tends to get chewed up the most during these times
2010-09-23 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although you can hit a home run during a trend
2010-09-23 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you understand and find a way to keep that money working for you during times in which the market isn't trending
2010-09-23 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your home run might look like a shadow of its former self in your trading account if you're not smart
2010-09-23 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can lose it all
2010-09-23 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by trying to lead off
2010-09-23 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by not being patient and waiting for the set up
2010-09-23 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for not being disciplined
2010-09-23 17:38:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well put
2010-09-23 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for not believing that being in cash is ALSO a position...etc.
2010-09-23 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLI breadth MCSUM...what do you see?
2010-09-23 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where did it find its resistance points?
2010-09-23 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in June... -250
2010-09-23 17:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in August - +500
2010-09-23 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now???
2010-09-23 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +250
2010-09-23 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now when you see this happen as often as it does
2010-09-23 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you learn what prices tend to do when you reach these different MCSUM levels
2010-09-23 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can then methodically determine what you're likely to see happen each and every day even before the cash market opens in the morning
2010-09-23 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that...you can pre plan your objectives and then follow them through for that day
2010-09-23 17:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really not that difficult
2010-09-23 17:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we, ourselves, make it difficult
2010-09-23 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's been frustrating over the last several months is the amount of chop we've had
2010-09-23 17:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making it difficult to make money on a consistent basis
2010-09-23 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all during this time
2010-09-23 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has been order
2010-09-23 17:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has been MCSUM resistance, intermediate trend resistance of the degree of money flow that either enters or exits the markets, on a very consistent basis
2010-09-23 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and during times of consolidation
2010-09-23 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or better put
2010-09-23 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: times in which the market shows no upward or downward trend
2010-09-23 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it trends sideways
2010-09-23 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the use of OSCILLATORS that instruct us what position to take
2010-09-23 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is a short term oscillator
2010-09-23 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is a intermediate term oscillator
2010-09-23 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both measure the direction of money flow
2010-09-23 17:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and money flow leads the direction of price itself
2010-09-23 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fun stuff, eh?
2010-09-23 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLB breadth MCSUM...what do we see?
2010-09-23 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: resistance at +750
2010-09-23 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about this last week
2010-09-23 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line test of the XLB breadth MCO today..so let's expect a bounce as soon as Friday
2010-09-23 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now let's look at the XLK
2010-09-23 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on what we just discussed
2010-09-23 17:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the positions of the XLK breadth MCO and MCSUM
2010-09-23 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be the technical expectation here?
2010-09-23 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you guys know the answer
2010-09-23 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's try this
2010-09-23 17:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where is the XLK breadth MCSUM?
2010-09-23 17:49:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: drop to zero, or below
2010-09-23 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's deconstruct this
2010-09-23 17:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM has a reading of +623
2010-09-23 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's above the +500 level, but it's still below the +750 level
2010-09-23 17:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are our "magnet" areas
2010-09-23 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the MCSUM to even have a chance of reaching the +750 level right now
2010-09-23 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO must show better resiliency in where it is as compared to its zero line
2010-09-23 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where is the XLK breadth MCO?
2010-09-23 17:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +30
2010-09-23 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: far and away one of the best readings in the market
2010-09-23 17:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the idea that the broader market(s) are at their zero lines
2010-09-23 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which indicate that a bounce is likely
2010-09-23 17:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would then be unlikely that this MCO will show continued decay near term
2010-09-23 17:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will attempt to snapback to the support it broke today BEFORE moving to its zero line
2010-09-23 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: under this scenario then
2010-09-23 17:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback would be to around the +50 level
2010-09-23 17:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add 50 to +623 and you get +673
2010-09-23 17:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market sticks around after a bounce...let's say tomorrow
2010-09-23 17:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it becomes a better chance that the XLK will indeed come VERY close to this same +750 magnet
2010-09-23 17:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once done...it can then move lower...which means below the MCO zero line
2010-09-23 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and join the rest of the market in correction
2010-09-23 17:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're using the idea that this is a 4th wave correction
2010-09-23 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially in the NDX
2010-09-23 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't this group of stocks be the likely candidates to push the NDX to this higher price high?
2010-09-23 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-23 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all has to work together
2010-09-23 17:54:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, not sure the 4 in the ndx is quite finished, though
2010-09-23 17:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the fun of technical analysis
2010-09-23 17:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't matter in this broader context
2010-09-23 17:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-09-23 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the amplitude of the advance
2010-09-23 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the momentum of the move itself would indicate that any fourth wave here wouldn't last very long
2010-09-23 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we would likely see some sort of 5th wave blowoff
2010-09-23 17:56:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true, just looks like it needs 5 of C
2010-09-23 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 1
2010-09-23 17:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of (1)
2010-09-23 17:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or i of 3
2010-09-23 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-23 17:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forgetting Elliott labeling
2010-09-23 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what DP allows us as technicians here is to peel away the layers of the onion
2010-09-23 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to see if a 5th wave is even doable
2010-09-23 17:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a higher high is plausible
2010-09-23 17:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing this has it's tremendous advantages
2010-09-23 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NOT in being right or wrong especially in the timing category
2010-09-23 17:58:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks to me that the 5th is doable there, no?
2010-09-23 17:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but having a logical play of attack...and if it DOESN'T work out, this would be as important to know than being correct
2010-09-23 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on XLK?
2010-09-23 17:58:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: meaning the 5 up
2010-09-23 17:58:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ndx
2010-09-23 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes... to both
2010-09-23 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLK
2010-09-23 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the textbook structure
2010-09-23 17:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see the gap above 21.75?
2010-09-23 18:00:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-23 18:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was the start of 3 after the wave 2 consolidation
2010-09-23 18:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in wave 4
2010-09-23 18:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO confirms this
2010-09-23 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the extremes in the breadth MCO's are always in the 3rd wave position
2010-09-23 18:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...you're correcting
2010-09-23 18:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the extreme "could be" at the peak of wave "A"
2010-09-23 18:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then diverges with "C"
2010-09-23 18:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple
2010-09-23 18:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last example of the power of money flow trends
2010-09-23 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLU data
2010-09-23 18:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the XLU breadth MCO is below its zero line
2010-09-23 18:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCSUM is declining rapidly
2010-09-23 18:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are just consolidating
2010-09-23 18:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this stresses the point that just because the MCSUM is moving in an opposite direction, it doesn't necessarily mean that prices will follow
2010-09-23 18:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the caveat being
2010-09-23 18:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how high the MCSUM is before it starts moving in the opposite direction
2010-09-23 18:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean
2010-09-23 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if the MCSUM suddenly turns higher
2010-09-23 18:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will as well
2010-09-23 18:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this case, to higher highs
2010-09-23 18:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's getting late...so let's take a quick look at the regular stuff
2010-09-23 18:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's have now broken below zero so a snapback should be expected
2010-09-23 18:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are getting close to neutral
2010-09-23 18:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the important thing in all this is that we will now be able to relieve the "overbought" readings in the VTO's
2010-09-23 18:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the faster we reach "oversold" there, the faster that this last shake out will be completed
2010-09-23 18:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2010-09-23 18:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will "FEEL" as bad as at anytime over the last 6 months
2010-09-23 18:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the markets objective
2010-09-23 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to make it feel like the worse is still ahead of us
2010-09-23 18:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the mark of great bottoms
2010-09-23 18:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, things change money flow wise, we will know that well before 98% of the rest
2010-09-23 18:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so feel at ease here and observe
2010-09-23 18:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: learn from this
2010-09-23 18:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.32
2010-09-23 18:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2010-09-23 18:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to build a downtrend when the Open 10 is above 1.00
2010-09-23 18:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 1.10 where we're technically "oversold"
2010-09-23 18:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bounce here is certainly not out of the question
2010-09-23 18:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop chop chop
2010-09-23 18:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .77
2010-09-23 18:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2010-09-23 18:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see a move back below .80 here
2010-09-23 18:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a higher price high
2010-09-23 18:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and divergence with the MCO
2010-09-23 18:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those are pretty good odds to take the opposite view of things
2010-09-23 18:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better than 50%
2010-09-23 18:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .92
2010-09-23 18:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2010-09-23 18:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-09-23 18:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-09-23 18:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day at a time
2010-09-23 18:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look for a bounce tomorrow
2010-09-23 18:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe into Monday
2010-09-23 18:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll see what the bears are made of
2010-09-23 18:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-09-23 18:11:47 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: Fib, thanks for a fantastic learning tonight. Have a good weekend!
2010-09-23 18:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more you work with this stuff...the more answers you'll find
2010-09-23 18:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my pleasure
2010-09-23 18:12:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have to say, looking at DP tonight - things seem to be setting up so well,IT,......it may become breathtaking
2010-09-23 18:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just make money with it
2010-09-23 18:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be
2010-09-23 18:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we need one more purge
2010-09-23 18:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really scary
2010-09-23 18:12:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-09-23 18:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hold divergence
2010-09-23 18:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it will be easy
2010-09-23 18:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm going to take off
2010-09-23 18:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2010-09-23 18:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hook up again on Tuesday
2010-09-23 18:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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