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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,491
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-22 16:00:04 fib1618: good day
2015-09-22 16:00:10 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-22 16:01:14 thespookyone: Great, and you?
2015-09-22 16:01:35 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2015-09-22 16:02:00 thespookyone: I have a question, ok?
2015-09-22 16:02:48 fib1618: of course!
2015-09-22 16:03:35 thespookyone: Trin during the session today was well over 4, I covered my short positions. That worked well in the case of my particular puts, but I'm wondering-does the high trin mean as much during the session, as it does on the close?
2015-09-22 16:04:06 fib1618: depends on the direction of the daily A/D line
2015-09-22 16:04:10 fib1618: but overall
2015-09-22 16:04:28 fib1618: anytime it gets that high, it's not a bad thing to bank any shorts
2015-09-22 16:04:58 thespookyone: I figured. My particular stuff bounced very hard, soon after I covered
2015-09-22 16:05:03 fib1618: as any imbalance, of that extreme, is not likely to stay around those levels for very long
2015-09-22 16:05:46 fib1618: it's like pulling back on a catapult to the point where you can't control the trigger...
2015-09-22 16:06:10 fib1618: it's going to "release the tension" no matter what you try to do to stop it
2015-09-22 16:06:11 thespookyone: nice analogy, that's how I was feeling, LOL
2015-09-22 16:06:16 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-22 16:07:11 fib1618: just remember that the TRIN is a guideline to compliment what you expect to happen during the day before the market opens
2015-09-22 16:07:28 fib1618: if the market was down 100 on the Dow
2015-09-22 16:07:34 fib1618: and the TRIN was only 1.00
2015-09-22 16:07:55 fib1618: but you saw that money flow had already broken to the downside the day before
2015-09-22 16:08:16 fib1618: anything greater would guide you into covering or triggering a new long position
2015-09-22 16:08:30 fib1618: that's why crashes are cool to trade
2015-09-22 16:08:38 fib1618: not so much when you catch it
2015-09-22 16:09:08 fib1618: but your odds of seeing a nice long trade once you have TRIN extremes is as good as it gets
2015-09-22 16:09:34 fib1618: congratulations on the trade
2015-09-22 16:09:36 thespookyone: yes
2015-09-22 16:10:00 thespookyone: thanks, I'm still trading close to the belt here, hit and run
2015-09-22 16:11:23 fib1618: that's all you can do under current conditions
2015-09-22 16:11:36 fib1618: they don't last too long...so you take advantage when you can
2015-09-22 16:11:38 fib1618: and...yes...
2015-09-22 16:11:42 thespookyone: too true
2015-09-22 16:11:51 fib1618: now I know why I had a bad feeling about what I was seeing on Thursday [smile]
2015-09-22 16:12:21 thespookyone: We took doubles from puts entered yesterday, and by the close, they were back to entry
2015-09-22 16:12:23 fib1618: OK...any other questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-22 16:12:38 thespookyone: I know, it felt funny to me, too
2015-09-22 16:12:38 fib1618: not bad...I've seen you do better [tongue]
2015-09-22 16:12:56 thespookyone: thx
2015-09-22 16:13:01 fib1618: OH...I have to find you something I saw today...one sec
2015-09-22 16:16:44 fib1618: here you go - http://tinyurl.com/pgubtqw
2015-09-22 16:16:53 fib1618: [biggrin]
2015-09-22 16:17:23 fib1618: OK...while Lew drools over the floating island yacht...let's get SC up and get started
2015-09-22 16:17:33 thespookyone: How cool!! Can't buy that on doubles, though [smile]
2015-09-22 16:17:49 fib1618: something to strive for!
2015-09-22 16:17:56 thespookyone: bet
2015-09-22 16:18:03 fib1618: you can sell your stagnant islands and travel the world
2015-09-22 16:18:13 thespookyone: nice...
2015-09-22 16:18:20 fib1618: maybe be a James Bond nemesis!
2015-09-22 16:18:25 thespookyone: LOL
2015-09-22 16:18:31 fib1618: lol
2015-09-22 16:18:52 thespookyone: Like to have a Jag, anyway, the new ones are sweet
2015-09-22 16:19:13 fib1618: OK...before we get started...let me look at the BETS first to see if there was any improvement with the latest decline
2015-09-22 16:19:15 fib1618: one sec
2015-09-22 16:20:22 fib1618: -60...down from -40 over the weekend
2015-09-22 16:20:31 fib1618: so leading to the downside again
2015-09-22 16:20:43 fib1618: OK...with that...let's see what we have to work with
2015-09-22 16:21:07 thespookyone: That's a pretty important trendline that broke on the SPX, as for simple TA
2015-09-22 16:21:32 fib1618: after bouncing off the +25 level on Monday
2015-09-22 16:21:49 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved down and through its zero line today
2015-09-22 16:22:13 fib1618: breaking the rising bottoms line of the last several weeks on the MCO in this effort
2015-09-22 16:22:32 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-09-22 16:22:46 fib1618: and we see that the 5% Trend wasn't able to move back above its zero line last week
2015-09-22 16:22:59 fib1618: and now we are back to a crossover sell signal for this basket of issues
2015-09-22 16:23:14 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-09-22 16:23:19 fib1618: and amazingly
2015-09-22 16:23:30 fib1618: we are finding resistance right at the -500 level
2015-09-22 16:23:34 fib1618: and have now turned lower
2015-09-22 16:23:58 fib1618: on the bullish side though
2015-09-22 16:24:22 fib1618: this MCSUM was able to break above the longer term declining tops line seen on the 1 year chart
2015-09-22 16:24:44 fib1618: but until it's able to move decisively above the -500 level
2015-09-22 16:25:11 fib1618: and more importantly the -400 level where we had horizontal resistance right before the crash
2015-09-22 16:25:35 fib1618: the NYA is going to be vulnerable to ambushes
2015-09-22 16:26:05 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA
2015-09-22 16:26:14 fib1618: and we see that we did have a mid range close today which suggests a higher close on Wednesday
2015-09-22 16:26:22 fib1618: but even more important
2015-09-22 16:26:51 fib1618: we gaped down below the previous apex of the symmetrical triangle we've been working with for the last several weeks
2015-09-22 16:27:02 fib1618: this is not a good omen short term
2015-09-22 16:27:32 fib1618: as it suggests that the sellers have taken control of any who were indecisive during that same time
2015-09-22 16:28:15 fib1618: and that a full on challenge of the intraday lows seen at the early part of September are likely to be broken
2015-09-22 16:28:40 fib1618: this would then open the proverbial "trap door" to test the lows of late August
2015-09-22 16:28:49 fib1618: and if momentum picks up
2015-09-22 16:29:00 fib1618: we'll likely see a break of those same price lows
2015-09-22 16:29:03 fib1618: but again
2015-09-22 16:29:20 fib1618: this was the scenario outlined a couple of weeks ago
2015-09-22 16:29:48 fib1618: where we were working with a downside price target of 1860 or so to complete the Elliott angle of the pattern
2015-09-22 16:29:57 fib1618: 1860 - cash SnP
2015-09-22 16:30:29 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-09-22 16:30:40 fib1618: and here we also moved sharply lower today
2015-09-22 16:30:48 fib1618: but settled with a reading of +2
2015-09-22 16:31:07 fib1618: so, at this point, a snapback to or toward the MCO zero line is now complete
2015-09-22 16:31:31 fib1618: though the trendline on the NYSE MCO has been broken today
2015-09-22 16:31:55 fib1618: we still see that we continue to have bottoms above bottoms in the structure from the end of August
2015-09-22 16:32:14 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-09-22 16:32:22 fib1618: and we see that both are back below their zero lines
2015-09-22 16:32:43 fib1618: but we don't have, as yet, a negative crossover
2015-09-22 16:33:05 fib1618: so if the rest of the market is showing this kind buoyancy
2015-09-22 16:33:22 fib1618: we should see a bounce higher on Wednesday and maybe into Thursday
2015-09-22 16:33:55 fib1618: looking at the time scale of the NYSE Composite MCO
2015-09-22 16:34:31 fib1618: and we also see that with the exception of spike low on August 31st
2015-09-22 16:34:41 fib1618: we have now been above the zero line for about 4 weeks now
2015-09-22 16:35:09 fib1618: so we're likely to see a prolonged move back below the line sooner than later
2015-09-22 16:35:21 fib1618: looking at the breadth charts this past weekend
2015-09-22 16:35:50 fib1618: and we're still on target for our next window of a tradable bottom around the week of October 5th
2015-09-22 16:36:21 fib1618: which would be the week after we get the September jobs numbers on the 2nd
2015-09-22 16:36:51 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-09-22 16:37:05 fib1618: that on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-09-22 16:37:35 fib1618: that we reached the overhead resistance line yesterday that connects the tops of July and August
2015-09-22 16:38:26 fib1618: so the next couple of days should be instructive on whether we're ready to move above this level or not
2015-09-22 16:38:32 fib1618: a failure to do so
2015-09-22 16:38:46 fib1618: and market prices are likely to swoon
2015-09-22 16:39:08 fib1618: but we should generate bullish divergences with the daily MCO's in doing so
2015-09-22 16:39:51 fib1618: since it's very unlikely that we'll move to challenge the -104 reading seen in August (in this case)
2015-09-22 16:39:57 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ
2015-09-22 16:40:28 fib1618: and we see that we snapped back fully to the NASDAQ breadth MCO today
2015-09-22 16:40:38 fib1618: coming in with a reading of -2
2015-09-22 16:40:48 fib1618: so if the components are being squeezed
2015-09-22 16:40:56 fib1618: we should see a bounce as soon as tomorrow
2015-09-22 16:41:05 fib1618: and...
2015-09-22 16:41:12 fib1618: they are
2015-09-22 16:41:25 fib1618: as the 10% is at 50% while the 5% is at 48%
2015-09-22 16:41:37 fib1618: so a bounce is suggested
2015-09-22 16:41:58 fib1618: probably to close today's downside price gap
2015-09-22 16:42:08 fib1618: oh...keep in mind
2015-09-22 16:42:19 fib1618: that Yom Kippur began this evening
2015-09-22 16:42:27 fib1618: so volume will be soft on Wednesday
2015-09-22 16:42:54 thespookyone: good call
2015-09-22 16:43:07 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2015-09-22 16:43:24 fib1618: and here we're seeing weaker data
2015-09-22 16:43:33 fib1618: and this doesn't bode well near term for the Composite
2015-09-22 16:43:56 fib1618: as the top 100 stocks tend to lead in the area of price decay
2015-09-22 16:44:04 fib1618: and other issues follow that lead
2015-09-22 16:44:24 fib1618: so maybe a snapback up to the MCO zero line tomorrow
2015-09-22 16:45:04 fib1618: and then on Thursday, when we're back to full strength, we can anticipate some serious chart testing of the crash lows of August
2015-09-22 16:45:40 fib1618: same situation with the SPX breadth MCO
2015-09-22 16:45:44 fib1618: a break of trend
2015-09-22 16:45:49 fib1618: a break of the zero line
2015-09-22 16:46:12 fib1618: and an obligatory snapback toward the MCO zero line likely to take place near term
2015-09-22 16:46:50 fib1618: looking at the 1 year chart of the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-09-22 16:47:15 fib1618: and we see that, with the exception of the rally failure of mid August
2015-09-22 16:47:36 fib1618: that we have now been below the MCSUM zero line for 4 months now
2015-09-22 16:47:54 fib1618: and as we talked about over the summer
2015-09-22 16:48:19 fib1618: the market has this uncanny ability to provide balance between buyers and sellers on any and all time frames
2015-09-22 16:49:10 fib1618: so with the SPX breadth MCSUM above zero for about 9 months prior to moving below the zero line this summer
2015-09-22 16:49:30 fib1618: we should see about 1/2 the time below the line to balance things out
2015-09-22 16:49:32 fib1618: ideally
2015-09-22 16:49:56 fib1618: if we can stay under the zero line for 62% of the time
2015-09-22 16:50:15 fib1618: that would bring minimal balance to this longer term idea
2015-09-22 16:50:18 fib1618: so...
2015-09-22 16:50:51 fib1618: 61% of 9 months is about 5 1/2
2015-09-22 16:51:11 fib1618: which would put us...about the beginning of October
2015-09-22 16:51:31 fib1618: let's be fair and call it mid October
2015-09-22 16:51:53 fib1618: but it does rhyme with what we've been working with for some time now
2015-09-22 16:52:07 fib1618: so...find resistance now
2015-09-22 16:52:38 fib1618: dig lower again and maybe challenge the early September lows in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-09-22 16:52:42 fib1618: and then turn and go
2015-09-22 16:52:53 fib1618: for this to happen
2015-09-22 16:53:09 fib1618: the decline to challenge the crash lows will need to be too far, too fast in amplitude
2015-09-22 16:53:25 fib1618: where we would also have divergence between price and breadth
2015-09-22 16:53:46 fib1618: both on a raw and trending basis of both short (MCO) and intermediate (MCSUM) term time frames
2015-09-22 16:54:05 fib1618: possible at this point
2015-09-22 16:54:21 fib1618: maybe it becomes more probable after next week
2015-09-22 16:54:49 fib1618: zero line snapback as well in the OEX breadth MCO
2015-09-22 16:55:08 fib1618: and note where the OEX breadth MCSUM is right now...just below the -500 level;
2015-09-22 16:55:24 fib1618: with a crossover sell on the components
2015-09-22 16:56:14 fib1618: we had a break of trend on Friday in the Dow breadth MCO
2015-09-22 16:56:21 fib1618: snapped back to the break on Monday
2015-09-22 16:56:25 fib1618: and closed lower today
2015-09-22 16:56:28 fib1618: but
2015-09-22 16:56:42 fib1618: we still remain above the MCO zero line
2015-09-22 16:57:28 fib1618: we're back to a sell signal today with the MID breadth MCO and its components
2015-09-22 16:58:02 fib1618: as we're being turned away right at the declining tops line connecting the tops of May and August
2015-09-22 16:58:53 fib1618: prices closed toward the lower portion of the price bar today
2015-09-22 16:59:11 fib1618: which was also below what should had been apex support
2015-09-22 16:59:54 fib1618: the SML breadth MCO was just as weak today
2015-09-22 17:00:24 fib1618: as the SML breadth MCSUM is right at the highs of August
2015-09-22 17:01:03 fib1618: and a zero line snapback to the TM breadth MCO is now complete
2015-09-22 17:01:20 fib1618: with the components suggesting a technical bounce as soon as Wednesday
2015-09-22 17:01:23 fib1618: so...
2015-09-22 17:01:36 fib1618: we got our expected pullback from Thursday's reversal bar
2015-09-22 17:01:43 fib1618: bounced on Monday
2015-09-22 17:01:55 fib1618: and then showed greater downside weakness today
2015-09-22 17:02:41 fib1618: so far it looks like the market is beginning the final process of trying to shake the tree of any leftover weak hands before it's able to "cure the concrete" of the foundation laid back earlier this month
2015-09-22 17:07:04 fib1618: moving to the NYSE CO volume MCO
2015-09-22 17:07:11 fib1618: and it also moved back below its zero line today
2015-09-22 17:07:18 fib1618: so breadth and volume remain in sync here
2015-09-22 17:07:32 fib1618: with a break of trend
2015-09-22 17:07:42 fib1618: and crossover sell on the components
2015-09-22 17:08:13 fib1618: the NYSE Composite volume MCO is showing a bit more weakness than its breadth cousin
2015-09-22 17:08:19 fib1618: and when volume is leading
2015-09-22 17:08:38 fib1618: we usually see trending moves in this same direction as long as breadth is following along
2015-09-22 17:08:57 fib1618: this, of course, would be a short term trend
2015-09-22 17:09:02 fib1618: that of 2-4 weeks
2015-09-22 17:09:22 fib1618: but it wouldn't be at all surprising to see a technical bounce here as well near term
2015-09-22 17:09:32 fib1618: before we begin to hammer out a bottom in earnest
2015-09-22 17:09:56 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also back to its zero line now
2015-09-22 17:10:08 fib1618: the thing to remember here
2015-09-22 17:10:09 fib1618: is that
2015-09-22 17:10:13 fib1618: technically
2015-09-22 17:10:18 fib1618: when the MCO is at the zero line
2015-09-22 17:10:24 fib1618: we're not trending either higher or lower
2015-09-22 17:10:31 fib1618: so price pattern wise
2015-09-22 17:10:36 fib1618: we're still moving sideways
2015-09-22 17:11:06 fib1618: but we may not see this sideways movement until the next successful test
2015-09-22 17:11:09 fib1618: and if that's the case
2015-09-22 17:11:58 fib1618: we'll likely see the NASDAQ move to find support at the 4600/4650 level on any challenge of the crash lows in the NYA
2015-09-22 17:12:18 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO is also at its zero line
2015-09-22 17:12:25 fib1618: so it's diverging with breadth right now
2015-09-22 17:12:47 fib1618: and this will likely keep prices from collapsing over the next several trading days
2015-09-22 17:12:55 fib1618: note though
2015-09-22 17:13:21 fib1618: that we have come up to the horizontal and natural resistance level at the -250 level
2015-09-22 17:13:37 fib1618: so after any technical bounce we might see on Wednesday
2015-09-22 17:13:52 fib1618: the real insight of success or failure will come on Thursday and Friday
2015-09-22 17:14:19 fib1618: but if the idea of a downside test is still in the offering
2015-09-22 17:14:47 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM will likely move back toward the -750 level to show internal support
2015-09-22 17:15:15 fib1618: nice range there with -750 as the base and -250 as the ceiling
2015-09-22 17:15:31 fib1618: sometimes range moves are not always seen...but merely felt
2015-09-22 17:15:57 fib1618: zero line snapback complete as well on the SPX volume MCO
2015-09-22 17:16:13 fib1618: so a bounce is likely there near term
2015-09-22 17:16:28 fib1618: looks like it's going to be a low volume bounce for Wednesday
2015-09-22 17:16:53 fib1618: zero line test as well for the OEX volume MCO
2015-09-22 17:17:22 fib1618: with the Dow volume MCO trying its best in holding around the +25 level
2015-09-22 17:17:49 fib1618: we should note here that the Dow volume MCSUM is up against overhead pattern resistance as well
2015-09-22 17:18:08 fib1618: whoops
2015-09-22 17:18:26 fib1618: not only did we move below the zero line of the MID volume MCO
2015-09-22 17:19:07 fib1618: but we also took out the zero line test lows of early September
2015-09-22 17:19:15 fib1618: that's a technical breakdown
2015-09-22 17:19:29 fib1618: so we can allow for a snapback to the zero line near term
2015-09-22 17:19:39 fib1618: but if the the SML has broken in this same fashion
2015-09-22 17:20:04 fib1618: then our idea of a challenge of the August lows will increase
2015-09-22 17:20:12 fib1618: and we did
2015-09-22 17:20:15 fib1618: OK...good
2015-09-22 17:20:19 fib1618: we have guidance
2015-09-22 17:20:44 fib1618: so let's look for the SML and MID lead to the downside for the next week or so after any bounce we might see near term
2015-09-22 17:21:02 fib1618: as they'll likely break below the August price lows first
2015-09-22 17:21:12 fib1618: and then the large caps will follow that lead
2015-09-22 17:21:39 fib1618: with this break then
2015-09-22 17:21:46 fib1618: when we look at the SML price chart
2015-09-22 17:21:58 fib1618: we see that our pattern has morphed into a bear flag now
2015-09-22 17:22:14 fib1618: and today's drop was the breakaway gap to the downside out of the flag
2015-09-22 17:22:19 fib1618: let me check the volume for confirmation
2015-09-22 17:22:57 fib1618: well...Friday was OPEX
2015-09-22 17:23:07 fib1618: hard to say outright
2015-09-22 17:23:10 fib1618: but pattern wise
2015-09-22 17:23:16 fib1618: and internally wise
2015-09-22 17:23:18 fib1618: it would fit
2015-09-22 17:23:31 fib1618: we'll know for sure after any impending snapback
2015-09-22 17:23:44 fib1618: both for the SML volume and breadth MCO's to their zero lines
2015-09-22 17:23:54 fib1618: while prices snapback to the line of previous support
2015-09-22 17:24:17 fib1618: could be an excellent short entry there with a tight stop
2015-09-22 17:24:33 thespookyone: yes sir!
2015-09-22 17:24:50 fib1618: and a snapback to the zero line line as well on the TM volume MCO
2015-09-22 17:25:15 fib1618: as the components remain weak in this process
2015-09-22 17:25:16 fib1618: so...
2015-09-22 17:25:35 fib1618: as we saw on Thursday
2015-09-22 17:26:00 fib1618: the reversal bar has allowed all of the MCO's to snapback to their zero lines from their "overbought" conditions
2015-09-22 17:26:20 fib1618: with many of the components either remaining or moving back below their zero lines
2015-09-22 17:26:37 fib1618: this would highly suggest that we're not quite ready yet to see a tradable bottom
2015-09-22 17:26:55 fib1618: and that we have some unfinished business still yet to do before this can be accomplished
2015-09-22 17:27:13 fib1618: and with a bit of a nudge
2015-09-22 17:27:23 fib1618: this can be taken care of in the next 2/3 weeks
2015-09-22 17:27:39 fib1618: looking at the calendar for October
2015-09-22 17:27:55 fib1618: WWW falls on 10/7...OPEX on 10/16
2015-09-22 17:28:02 fib1618: so...ideally
2015-09-22 17:28:28 fib1618: with the longer term time forecast of a tradable bottom around the beginning of October
2015-09-22 17:28:53 fib1618: it would appear that it might come after 10/8 as a preliminary target date
2015-09-22 17:29:27 fib1618: sentiment should also be about right then as well
2015-09-22 17:29:38 fib1618: for if we get the decline we're looking for into the 7th
2015-09-22 17:29:54 fib1618: we all know what people will be talking about since it will be...yes...October
2015-09-22 17:30:08 fib1618: and that should set the floor
2015-09-22 17:30:17 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2015-09-22 17:30:24 fib1618: OBV's...
2015-09-22 17:30:55 fib1618: CVI's are now climactic
2015-09-22 17:31:09 fib1618: so we should see a price low in the next two trading sessions
2015-09-22 17:31:27 fib1618: likely on Wednesday given the current dynamics
2015-09-22 17:31:30 fib1618: remember
2015-09-22 17:31:49 fib1618: these change in direction in prices is of a very short term nature
2015-09-22 17:31:55 fib1618: they can last a day
2015-09-22 17:31:57 fib1618: or a week
2015-09-22 17:32:06 fib1618: it really depends on "everything"
2015-09-22 17:32:21 fib1618: STVO's are now back to neutral
2015-09-22 17:32:32 fib1618: so a bounce here by the buyers wouldn't be surprising
2015-09-22 17:32:47 fib1618: VTO's are still negative
2015-09-22 17:33:19 fib1618: and likely to test the late August lows to help us in defining a likely point of reversal
2015-09-22 17:33:36 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.83
2015-09-22 17:33:52 fib1618: Open 10 now really digging lower at 1.36
2015-09-22 17:34:19 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.01
2015-09-22 17:34:29 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.05
2015-09-22 17:34:38 fib1618: we need more "cowbell" there
2015-09-22 17:34:52 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.18
2015-09-22 17:35:03 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.16
2015-09-22 17:35:36 fib1618: so it would seem that the area of investment that still to see some capitation is with the NASDAQ
2015-09-22 17:35:59 fib1618: and we're probably seeing this now thanks to Hillary and her ideas of making drugs cheaper by "socializing" them
2015-09-22 17:36:19 fib1618: overall
2015-09-22 17:36:33 fib1618: we're getting pretty close to another long opportunity window
2015-09-22 17:36:55 fib1618: we're just going to need a good, old fashioned capitation to make it happen
2015-09-22 17:37:01 fib1618: so one day at a time
2015-09-22 17:37:42 fib1618: and we'll concentrate on watching the market go through a series of slamming lower to shake the tree as fast as it can
2015-09-22 17:37:55 fib1618: but first let's get our bounce out the way
2015-09-22 17:38:21 fib1618: and hopefully we'll also start seeing improvement in the BETS numbers to help reaffirm our expectations for early October
2015-09-22 17:38:23 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-22 17:39:06 fib1618: just checked
2015-09-22 17:39:24 fib1618: the DAX closed below the crash lows of August 24th today
2015-09-22 17:39:51 fib1618: the FTSE just above them
2015-09-22 17:40:09 fib1618: as well as the CAC
2015-09-22 17:40:25 fib1618: sigh...there's so much worry going on in Europe now
2015-09-22 17:40:34 fib1618: the whole landscape is changing so radically
2015-09-22 17:40:43 fib1618: we may not recognize it in 10 years
2015-09-22 17:41:23 thespookyone: I guess the "experiment" didn't work [smile]
2015-09-22 17:41:40 fib1618: well...they have bigger problems now with the current "invasion"
2015-09-22 17:42:01 fib1618: birth rates were declining in Europe before this infiltration
2015-09-22 17:42:12 fib1618: and now...big heavy sigh
2015-09-22 17:42:42 fib1618: it's funny about turning points in history
2015-09-22 17:42:54 fib1618: little do we notice them when we see them happen in front of our noses
2015-09-22 17:43:26 fib1618: anyway...nothing else?
2015-09-22 17:43:33 thespookyone: thx
2015-09-22 17:43:40 fib1618: sure enough
2015-09-22 17:43:54 fib1618: it's likely to be a very rough week coming up
2015-09-22 17:44:16 fib1618: so we need to make sure to show a great amount of discipline
2015-09-22 17:44:37 fib1618: and stay with the blueprint
2015-09-22 17:44:44 thespookyone: stairs up, elevator down...
2015-09-22 17:44:45 unc1998: Do you think we could be done with this whole correction by the time the job numbers come out?
2015-09-22 17:44:59 fib1618: we could...but I wouldn't think so
2015-09-22 17:45:07 fib1618: we have to figure that technically
2015-09-22 17:45:35 fib1618: we will need to see the MCO's move below their zero lines for at least two weeks to back and fill the extremes of late August
2015-09-22 17:45:50 fib1618: but we'll take it day to day
2015-09-22 17:45:56 unc1998: thx
2015-09-22 17:46:08 fib1618: honestly
2015-09-22 17:46:19 fib1618: I think the jobs number coming up will be more of a side note
2015-09-22 17:46:28 fib1618: in order to "clear the deck"
2015-09-22 17:46:48 fib1618: any bottoming event is likely to have a strong news item to go along with it
2015-09-22 17:46:52 fib1618: could be China again
2015-09-22 17:46:58 fib1618: could be Europe
2015-09-22 17:47:04 unc1998: I think Chinese PMI comes out tonight
2015-09-22 17:47:10 fib1618: at this point
2015-09-22 17:47:42 fib1618: we're likely to see things that will perpetuate what the technicals are suggesting
2015-09-22 17:48:01 fib1618: there's a lot to choose from
2015-09-22 17:48:08 fib1618: could be another currency war
2015-09-22 17:48:31 fib1618: with large allocation moves
2015-09-22 17:48:33 fib1618: then again
2015-09-22 17:48:43 fib1618: Europe is already challenging the August lows
2015-09-22 17:48:58 fib1618: they may have to sell US stocks in order to remain "solvent"
2015-09-22 17:49:20 fib1618: just some ideas
2015-09-22 17:49:36 fib1618: it's always interesting to see what it turns out to be
2015-09-22 17:49:44 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-22 17:49:47 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-09-22 17:49:52 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-09-22 17:49:58 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2015-09-22 17:50:00 fib1618: good night
2015-09-22 17:50:05 unc1998: goodnight


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