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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-09-22 15:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-09-22 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-09-22 16:00:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Super, and you?
2011-09-22 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: growl
2011-09-22 16:00:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-09-22 16:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a great entry yesterday after the statement
2011-09-22 16:00:50 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: just a little bit of a bear...not that bad....
2011-09-22 16:00:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OH Man!
2011-09-22 16:01:08 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: you got that right.
2011-09-22 16:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...everything was in place
2011-09-22 16:01:17 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: gold action a wonder as well
2011-09-22 16:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we needed was a trigger
2011-09-22 16:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too surprising on the commodities since everyone decided that they HAD to go higher
2011-09-22 16:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the breadth charts on Tuesday told a different story, didn't they?
2011-09-22 16:02:20 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yeppers
2011-09-22 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the triangle on the XLE
2011-09-22 16:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breakdown in the XLB
2011-09-22 16:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the divergence in the XLK
2011-09-22 16:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's finding overhead resistance
2011-09-22 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: blah blah blah
2011-09-22 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2011-09-22 16:03:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great job Fib!
2011-09-22 16:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great job by all
2011-09-22 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just try to interpret what the market is whispering
2011-09-22 16:04:05 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: and lew, commendations on your comments regarding lack of texture
2011-09-22 16:04:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-09-22 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that we didn't get was fooled by the last weeks advance
2011-09-22 16:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was never enough energy to move to higher highs
2011-09-22 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...we took a quick look over the edge of the 1120 cash level late in the afternoon
2011-09-22 16:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we breached that level, it provided us with a new count
2011-09-22 16:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which I almost posted last week, but decided to be a little more conservative
2011-09-22 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-22 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave (X) is now complete
2011-09-22 16:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should probably look for an A-B-C lower to complete the pattern
2011-09-22 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough of this Elliott stuff
2011-09-22 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and let's see if we took out the August MCO lows or not
2011-09-22 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no doubt
2011-09-22 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved sharply lower over the last couple of days
2011-09-22 16:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now taken out its mid August lows
2011-09-22 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was something in which we thought would eventually happen during this ongoing constructive phase given the lack of divergent consistencies noted with these same lows
2011-09-22 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is now important near term is that the 8/8 MCO lows are not taken out
2011-09-22 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which, based on today's breadth plurality numbers, is not likely to happen
2011-09-22 16:09:15 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: can you expand on that a little, Dave...if there's time?
2011-09-22 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that today's NYAD plurality was only 9:1 negative
2011-09-22 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the plurality?
2011-09-22 16:09:58 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Yeah, I don't understand how one day's action can preclude a test of the 8/8 mco lows
2011-09-22 16:10:09 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: or a break, to be more precise
2011-09-22 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if we use Elliott as our guide here
2011-09-22 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guidelines suggest that wave C will always diverge with wave A
2011-09-22 16:10:36 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: 10.4 thanks
2011-09-22 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that wave 5 will always diverge with wave 3
2011-09-22 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless this is part of some sort of extended pattern lower
2011-09-22 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now need to watch breadth plurality
2011-09-22 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: carrying on with the thought
2011-09-22 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only moved to 9:1 negative today
2011-09-22 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during the height of the August collapse
2011-09-22 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was something like 30:1 negative
2011-09-22 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of that happening again is quite slim
2011-09-22 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whether that was a 3rd wave or an A wave doesn't really matter
2011-09-22 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what matters is that there will likely be lower momentum during this phase
2011-09-22 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, it will be accompanied with the highest read on sentiment
2011-09-22 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should therefore see momentum divergence
2011-09-22 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should also see sentiment move off the chart
2011-09-22 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is typical behavior during times of capitulation
2011-09-22 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-09-22 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mathematically
2011-09-22 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last weeks spikes in all of the MCO's have now provided that much more "elevation" to the MCO structures that again it's unlikely that we'll even come close to the extremes seen on 8/8
2011-09-22 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the blueprint here is for more panic to set in
2011-09-22 16:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: primarily based on what can't be controlled or not understood by the market's participants
2011-09-22 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will set ourselves for our tradable bottom in which the NYSE breadth MCSUM has forecasted to occur sometime in the window starting after OPEX and the 1st week of November
2011-09-22 16:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched on Tuesday
2011-09-22 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the time we're ready to bottom
2011-09-22 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of us will question whether our indicators can be called correct
2011-09-22 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no emotion here folks
2011-09-22 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just let the market unwind at its own pace
2011-09-22 16:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is healthy
2011-09-22 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back to the NYA chart for a moment
2011-09-22 16:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have the broadest measure of stock activity now well below the August lows
2011-09-22 16:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should be pointed out here
2011-09-22 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that with this closing low today
2011-09-22 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now met the downside price target given by the NYSE breadth MCO back in July of a test of last summers lows
2011-09-22 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's off the table
2011-09-22 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because we have now reached this important objective
2011-09-22 16:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we get new downside generated targets
2011-09-22 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from this point on we must continue to look for evidence that our bottom is being created
2011-09-22 16:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-09-22 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have several targets in play here
2011-09-22 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they all lie somewhere between...what was it?
2011-09-22 16:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 980 and 1070?
2011-09-22 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew has some
2011-09-22 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have 2 or 3 objectives based on different indicators
2011-09-22 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we continue to sell off here on the back of news that would accompany such a bottom
2011-09-22 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must be mindful that unless we take out the August lows in the various MCO's
2011-09-22 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is nothing but the final re-bar being placed for a solid bottom in which the market can either rally OUT of or move DOWN into
2011-09-22 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we watched how breadth of market can lead prices lower in August
2011-09-22 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the exercise this time around is to appreciate the high amount of anxiety that will (and can) accompany pivotal bottoms in an advancing price structure
2011-09-22 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on
2011-09-22 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2011-09-22 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what they will need to do here in order for all of the indices to break their August price lows
2011-09-22 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that their individual MCSUM's will need to break below their recent hesitation/inverted ledges points
2011-09-22 16:24:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have 1063, fwiw
2011-09-22 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once they go
2011-09-22 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and you had something around 970 too?
2011-09-22 16:25:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, 975
2011-09-22 16:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-09-22 16:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 980-1070
2011-09-22 16:25:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-09-22 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard to really get a good read here until we CLOSE below 1118 cash
2011-09-22 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we do that
2011-09-22 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll have many angles to play with
2011-09-22 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2011-09-22 16:26:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-09-22 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it DOES mean something when the broadest measure of stock market activity (NYA) is leading a select basket of stocks
2011-09-22 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be this broadest measure that WILL bottom first
2011-09-22 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2011-09-22 16:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: show signs of a wash out
2011-09-22 16:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-22 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about how the "brass" don't tend to do very well if they're leading the troops
2011-09-22 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that the troops are pulling back
2011-09-22 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the brass will as well
2011-09-22 16:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they will bottom later
2011-09-22 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since 99% of the population look to the Dow and SPX as their proxies of stock market activity
2011-09-22 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will be the last ones to the party...no matter which way we go
2011-09-22 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that rally last week?
2011-09-22 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure sucked in the unwilling didn't it?
2011-09-22 16:29:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet!
2011-09-22 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it's purpose being
2011-09-22 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to part the majority from their hard earned money
2011-09-22 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the put buyers
2011-09-22 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cocky bulls
2011-09-22 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the consolidation was needed so that the market could produce the maximum amount of pain before resuming on its current path of corrective activity
2011-09-22 16:30:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I always like how they dump the put buyers off the bus before the real drop
2011-09-22 16:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you've been there
2011-09-22 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been there
2011-09-22 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've all been there
2011-09-22 16:30:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet
2011-09-22 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way you learn in this business are the times in which you get hurt
2011-09-22 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like life itself
2011-09-22 16:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes though
2011-09-22 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many traders are masochists
2011-09-22 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would rather be right on their opinions than just following what the market is instructing them to do
2011-09-22 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's really the objective of these chats
2011-09-22 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to take out the emotion
2011-09-22 16:32:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: at this time in life-they didn't even get a whiff of hurting me-it's more opportunity if you view the sequence right=which you help us do so well doing
2011-09-22 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and include what the market is actually able to do given what it has to work with
2011-09-22 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is our place of "zen" so I was told last week
2011-09-22 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ommmmmm!
2011-09-22 16:33:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is!
2011-09-22 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite data
2011-09-22 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have breadth leading price to the downside
2011-09-22 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this relationship
2011-09-22 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the short term trend of breadth is moving lower (per the MCO)
2011-09-22 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will continue to follow this path
2011-09-22 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until it exhausts itself
2011-09-22 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN will be the time in which we will begin the final construction phase of a bottom
2011-09-22 16:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now keep in mind
2011-09-22 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYSE breadth MCSUM will probably move to lower lows during this final wash out
2011-09-22 16:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we didn't get as "oversold" as one would like during a strong up trend
2011-09-22 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper we carve a momentum bottom
2011-09-22 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stronger the foundation of which to construct our price structure
2011-09-22 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-09-22 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO now has a reading of -63
2011-09-22 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be surprised if we do see a snapback back near term
2011-09-22 16:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not all the way back to the zero line
2011-09-22 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but just to snapback to or towards the line just violated that connected the August and September lows
2011-09-22 16:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that comes in at around the -25 level
2011-09-22 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2011-09-22 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could just continue to hammer out our low now
2011-09-22 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the back drop and timing of the news events surrounding this sell off
2011-09-22 16:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I kind of favor a pause to refresh as the better option
2011-09-22 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would set us up for next week when the real meat and potatoes of the Greek problem is due to come to a head
2011-09-22 16:40:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto, and many stocks are showing an ABC pattern down=needing a B up soon here
2011-09-22 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I had to guess
2011-09-22 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pause would be part of wave 4
2011-09-22 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2011-09-22 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we just completed a (B) wave instead of a (X) wave
2011-09-22 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could just impulse lower in 5 waves to complete (C)
2011-09-22 16:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important not to refer to an Elliott count here
2011-09-22 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to let breadth of market be our guide
2011-09-22 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the count will become clear as we move along
2011-09-22 16:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2011-09-22 16:42:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: were you meaning 4 of A?
2011-09-22 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to listen and watch the action that can cause the pattern to move lower
2011-09-22 16:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-09-22 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could even be 2 of A
2011-09-22 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's happening so fast
2011-09-22 16:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what we do know is
2011-09-22 16:43:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, that's where I'm at-but remaining flexible
2011-09-22 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew that the market was primed on Tuesday to breakdown
2011-09-22 16:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we thought that maybe we might get a bounce yesterday going into the FED
2011-09-22 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market sagged the whole day
2011-09-22 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whipsaws on the announcement
2011-09-22 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when it took out its intraday lows an hour before the close
2011-09-22 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was the trigger
2011-09-22 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had it laid out nicely
2011-09-22 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we needed was the confirmation
2011-09-22 16:44:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the best-you nailed it
2011-09-22 16:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, by the way, came at exactly the number we looking for - a break of 1190
2011-09-22 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which actually became 1187 during the day
2011-09-22 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once that broke
2011-09-22 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the snapback was the entry
2011-09-22 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the short
2011-09-22 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like today
2011-09-22 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we hit support at 1118
2011-09-22 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounced higher for 10 SPX points
2011-09-22 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slammed lower again and (finally) broke 1118
2011-09-22 16:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then the buy programs hit
2011-09-22 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was so predictable
2011-09-22 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-22 16:46:19 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: how big would you expect the B wave to be? .382 retrace?
2011-09-22 16:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get this bounce out of the way
2011-09-22 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the armor has been pierced
2011-09-22 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the troops will be able to go in for the kill
2011-09-22 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm
2011-09-22 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard to tell Sam
2011-09-22 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we don't know exactly which structure the pattern will take
2011-09-22 16:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2011-09-22 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the continued volatility
2011-09-22 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would plan for a flat
2011-09-22 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: problem is
2011-09-22 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's an irregular one your shorts can get killed in the process
2011-09-22 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I wouldn't trade a count here
2011-09-22 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would trade what breadth is suggesting
2011-09-22 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-09-22 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will there be enough energy to move the price structure to higher highs?
2011-09-22 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will the pattern eventually break lower because of a lack of buyers?
2011-09-22 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-09-22 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott is best used to measure the underlying PSYCHOLOGY that accompanies a price structure
2011-09-22 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we have a handle on that
2011-09-22 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can provide the appropriate labeling
2011-09-22 16:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: measuring wise
2011-09-22 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using Fib retracements work whether we're dealing with a labeled count or not
2011-09-22 16:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the usual and customary retracements that we see as chartists
2011-09-22 16:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like snapbacks
2011-09-22 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 50% reactions
2011-09-22 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to work with the ebb and flow of the pattern than to try to give it a name
2011-09-22 16:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: texture goes along with rhythm
2011-09-22 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the beat of your heart
2011-09-22 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the same as the beat of the market
2011-09-22 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you see an inconsistent beat
2011-09-22 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know that you have to trade with more care than if you see a simple rhythm or impulse
2011-09-22 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we pierced the 1118 level late today
2011-09-22 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then rallied off this level
2011-09-22 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we move below this level again
2011-09-22 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really can't add to an existing short position with confidence
2011-09-22 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...enter a new trade
2011-09-22 16:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-09-22 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still a hit and run affair
2011-09-22 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is STILL a consolidation pattern
2011-09-22 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least with the SPX
2011-09-22 16:54:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I covered 1119-took the meat
2011-09-22 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not so with the NYA
2011-09-22 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there we might have a snapback near term since the level of support that held for almost two months will need to be challenged
2011-09-22 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice trade
2011-09-22 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakdown, snapback, extension
2011-09-22 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see this time after time after time
2011-09-22 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is therefore our first expectation
2011-09-22 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market continues to move beyond this expectation, then another path is given
2011-09-22 16:56:17 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: thanks for the extensive answer. appreciated
2011-09-22 16:56:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, seemed like a fair spot-and as you said-breadth was only so threatening=I can always reshort when prudent
2011-09-22 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to never get ahead of ourselves
2011-09-22 16:56:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: this was our first area of interest, no?
2011-09-22 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem on the answer
2011-09-22 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market has to continue to prove itself
2011-09-22 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, yes, as we chatted on Tuesday
2011-09-22 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the evidence that we were likely to traverse to the lower end of the trading range as soon as the end of this week
2011-09-22 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're here...now
2011-09-22 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but while many look at the great support shown by the SPX today and turn bullish
2011-09-22 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market NYA is saying that the SPX is likely to break below this same support sooner than later
2011-09-22 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-09-22 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you WANT this to happen
2011-09-22 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you don't want here is for the SPX to find support and then lead the broader market higher to test the 1218 highs
2011-09-22 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would set up a disaster
2011-09-22 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it MUST all work together here
2011-09-22 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides rhythm, there is procession in all of this
2011-09-22 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market must lead the rest
2011-09-22 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't
2011-09-22 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have trend divergence
2011-09-22 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and things like 2001 and 2002 can happen
2011-09-22 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have a whole different scenario playing out here
2011-09-22 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and least we forget
2011-09-22 17:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still haven't had the NYAD line show bearish divergence as yet with the NYA
2011-09-22 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that the Bond CEF continues to make new all time highs
2011-09-22 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see how this translates with the notes and bonds
2011-09-22 17:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that the Preferred stock A/D line also continues to make new all time highs
2011-09-22 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of these A/D line sub sets could not do this unless there is more than enough liquidity in the system so that they can be bid up
2011-09-22 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity therefore
2011-09-22 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only gets used when its able to be put to work
2011-09-22 17:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's being put to work right now...
2011-09-22 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2011-09-22 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those of you who have shown an appreciation on how fashion tends to lead the stock market
2011-09-22 17:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for spring 2012
2011-09-22 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's being shown right now is probably the most amount of "romantic" looks that I have seen since 1982
2011-09-22 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: romantic looks tend to be popular with women when we're coming out of recessions
2011-09-22 17:05:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2011-09-22 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's light and flirty
2011-09-22 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of ethnic looks
2011-09-22 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like we saw in the early 1980's
2011-09-22 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the big color?
2011-09-22 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: white
2011-09-22 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the color of extreme optimism
2011-09-22 17:06:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-09-22 17:06:30 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I like light and flirty
2011-09-22 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be making a post this weekend so you can see what's being shown
2011-09-22 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time
2011-09-22 17:07:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks much!
2011-09-22 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be a hero with your significant other by knowing what's going to be fashionable before she will!
2011-09-22 17:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-22 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to work
2011-09-22 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we go to the 3 year chart for a moment on the NYA
2011-09-22 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see where our support is from last summer - the 6500 level
2011-09-22 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed at 6726 today
2011-09-22 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also closed at the lows of last September
2011-09-22 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes our downside target met
2011-09-22 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the one year charts
2011-09-22 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on to the NASDAQ breadth MCO which has also taken out its August lows
2011-09-22 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only is this important in the context we've talked about already
2011-09-22 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this break below the August lows also triggered something else...anyone wish to point it out?
2011-09-22 17:10:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: SOB
2011-09-22 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hint: look at the price pattern and the MCO during last weeks run up
2011-09-22 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-22 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone else see bear divergence?
2011-09-22 17:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was the trigger
2011-09-22 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bear divergence is now in place
2011-09-22 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: adding additional evidence that we're likely to see breaks in this index as well below the August lows
2011-09-22 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2011-09-22 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we remain above the August lows
2011-09-22 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike the NASDAQ composite
2011-09-22 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no divergence here
2011-09-22 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this basket of stocks remains the "go to" basket on any further strength near term
2011-09-22 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you think...break a way gap to the downside today or a simple pattern gap??
2011-09-22 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting to note
2011-09-22 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NDX closed right on its rising bottoms line today
2011-09-22 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls are holding on the best they can
2011-09-22 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now challenging its August lows
2011-09-22 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we see this taken out
2011-09-22 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the consolidation pattern remains
2011-09-22 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we do get enough energy to break the August MCO low
2011-09-22 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the price pattern will be able to move out of its congestion
2011-09-22 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something of which I think we also talked about on Tuesday
2011-09-22 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the OEX breadth MCO did, but the slightest of margins, break below its recent MCO lows today
2011-09-22 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which already took out the August lows
2011-09-22 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the internals here suggest that a breakdown out of the consolidation is highly probable
2011-09-22 17:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the OEX goes, so goes the SPX
2011-09-22 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's also remind ourselves of the lack of texture in the MCO's
2011-09-22 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX as a good example
2011-09-22 17:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see straight up and down moves like we see here
2011-09-22 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tells us that neither side has control of the action
2011-09-22 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the decision making is being generated based on something outside that of economics
2011-09-22 17:20:08 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I am confused Fib, I don't see NASDAQ MCO taking out August lows, which occurred August 8 or 9.  Are you referring to the lower low of NASDAQ of August 18 which had a divergent MCO with August 8,  and yes today's NASDAQ MCO took off that one?
2011-09-22 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words...it's news driven events that are controlling the pattern
2011-09-22 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no.....the important lows for the MCO's are the lows seen in mid August
2011-09-22 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the flags
2011-09-22 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the beginning of the month
2011-09-22 17:21:17 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you
2011-09-22 17:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the August 8th lows are important if they are taken out
2011-09-22 17:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if that happens
2011-09-22 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would generate new downside targets for the index
2011-09-22 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be....
2011-09-22 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lows of 2009
2011-09-22 17:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2011-09-22 17:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happens
2011-09-22 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 2009 lows won't hold
2011-09-22 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's another story altogether and not even on the radar as yet
2011-09-22 17:23:52 [Message] tracca -> Chat: if August 8 lows are not taken out than is the target for NASDAQ still the lows of July 2010?
2011-09-22 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-09-22 17:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what that would be
2011-09-22 17:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2100
2011-09-22 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (or there about)
2011-09-22 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally though
2011-09-22 17:25:05 [Message] tracca -> Chat: what is for NDX?
2011-09-22 17:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have to do is meet the lows of late August/early September 2010 to be satisfied
2011-09-22 17:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NDX
2011-09-22 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like 1750/1800
2011-09-22 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there is a lower probability of this target being met given the recent highs in the respected MCO's
2011-09-22 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might only see 1950/2000 as an example and be called complete
2011-09-22 17:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amount of energy that came in to halt the crash last month was enough to not only to provide a pause
2011-09-22 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was also able to build enough texture to where the original downside targets might not be meet in total
2011-09-22 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure though
2011-09-22 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX has a lot more catch up to do at this stage to the rest of the market
2011-09-22 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this makes this index attractive in this context
2011-09-22 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember what we talked about on Tuesday
2011-09-22 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better way to fully exploit any further decay here is to look toward the leaders in this direction
2011-09-22 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: example - the financials
2011-09-22 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happened to them today?
2011-09-22 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happened to the very issues we mentioned here based on what DP was showing as being leaders to the downside?
2011-09-22 17:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GS down 11%
2011-09-22 17:30:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yummy, LOL
2011-09-22 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: JPM down 10%
2011-09-22 17:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what else was there?
2011-09-22 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF is down 8%
2011-09-22 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about the energy sector?
2011-09-22 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLE down 12%
2011-09-22 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was a no brainer
2011-09-22 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw the beautiful symmetrical triangle
2011-09-22 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw the internals breaking down
2011-09-22 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-09-22 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing I will say on where and what you want to play here is...
2011-09-22 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 60% should be based on the market climate
2011-09-22 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30% on the sector
2011-09-22 17:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 10% on the stock
2011-09-22 17:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you find one that is leading lower in all areas you have a 100% chance of making money on the trade
2011-09-22 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money knows what money likes
2011-09-22 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time
2011-09-22 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what it doesn't like
2011-09-22 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I always find it interesting on why many look only at the NDX to play the market during trending moves
2011-09-22 17:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there's so much out there to exploit that can and will give a better return
2011-09-22 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...
2011-09-22 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL...a leading stock to the upside, was only down 2% today
2011-09-22 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down 4% in 2 days
2011-09-22 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what's better here?
2011-09-22 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making 4% on AAPL or making 10% on JPM or GS?
2011-09-22 17:36:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AAPL could actually still have a high left here-just sayin
2011-09-22 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2011-09-22 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since everyone seems to using it as a proxy over the last week
2011-09-22 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a new high tomorrow in the AAPL would certainly go a long way of moving shorts to cover right before we have another leg lower
2011-09-22 17:37:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet-reading my mind
2011-09-22 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to always be mindful that the market is tricksy...false
2011-09-22 17:38:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: prior 4 was at 395=coincidence? LOL
2011-09-22 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will do whatever it can to make the majority part with their money
2011-09-22 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-22 17:39:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: markets been doing a standup job of it too-A+
2011-09-22 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID breadth MCO and here we are testing the mid August lows
2011-09-22 17:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this level is broken
2011-09-22 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in a trading range
2011-09-22 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the price chart shows
2011-09-22 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no divergence as yet means that we should see lower lows anyway
2011-09-22 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2011-09-22 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best scenario here is for lower lows in the MCO
2011-09-22 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback toward the zero line
2011-09-22 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make lower price lows with higher lows in the MCO
2011-09-22 17:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this to continue for about 2 weeks
2011-09-22 17:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper we dig lower price wise
2011-09-22 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better for the eventual move higher as long as the MCO continues to diverge with each price pattern low
2011-09-22 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO has perceptively broken below the mid August lows today
2011-09-22 17:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're going to need at least some additional texture before we see the actual low
2011-09-22 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO did, in fact, take out its mid August lows today
2011-09-22 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-22 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if all is going to plan
2011-09-22 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now beginning our final capitulation phase as we attempt to secure a tradable bottom
2011-09-22 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this usually takes about 2-3 weeks to fully accomplish
2011-09-22 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would pretty much match up with our ideal price bottom forecast of around the 2nd week of October
2011-09-22 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether we hit a bulls eye or not remains to be seen
2011-09-22 17:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the market continues to follow the plan, we'll keep using it
2011-09-22 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now "oversold"
2011-09-22 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see some sort of price low in the next two trading sessions
2011-09-22 17:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that the NDX CVI is now at its lowest level since the crash lows
2011-09-22 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so new texture will need to be built there before we see a bottom
2011-09-22 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now to the south of neutral
2011-09-22 17:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the VTO"s
2011-09-22 17:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see our actual price lows until both of these indicators move to "oversold"
2011-09-22 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at least a week is needed there
2011-09-22 17:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.50
2011-09-22 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2011-09-22 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up from a .99 yesterday
2011-09-22 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from our neutral reading we talked about on Tuesday as probably being important
2011-09-22 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At 1.94
2011-09-22 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now neutral at .90
2011-09-22 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means that there's a lot of breathing space to show continued decay
2011-09-22 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.09
2011-09-22 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 there at .97
2011-09-22 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite "oversold" as yet
2011-09-22 17:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-09-22 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it now looks like that by early next week we will be working with prices moving down and through their consolidation patterns
2011-09-22 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably working with moving to our original targets of the summer lows from last year
2011-09-22 17:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-09-22 17:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that much of any capitulation here will probably come in within 2 weeks or so
2011-09-22 17:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which puts us somewhere around the first week of October
2011-09-22 17:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...although it's within the projected time window for a bottom
2011-09-22 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be surprising that this bottoming process continue into the 2nd or 3rd week of October
2011-09-22 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-09-22 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is imperative that the breadth MCO's do not break below their 8/8 lows
2011-09-22 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if that happens
2011-09-22 17:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then something rather tragic is occurring in which none of us will want to know about
2011-09-22 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day at a time
2011-09-22 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the first priority of getting MCO confirmation that the current consolidation is indeed over
2011-09-22 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that's done
2011-09-22 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then trading will become much easier for a while
2011-09-22 17:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no more of this choppy volatility
2011-09-22 17:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will probably become trending volatility at least for a couple of weeks
2011-09-22 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-22 17:56:17 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: what do you mean by trending volatility?
2011-09-22 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of the roller coaster ride
2011-09-22 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be straight going
2011-09-22 17:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 200
2011-09-22 17:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 250
2011-09-22 17:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 100
2011-09-22 17:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: none of this up down stuff
2011-09-22 17:57:07 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: okay - nice, thanks
2011-09-22 17:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line here
2011-09-22 17:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the one thing that will keep us all honest is our discipline
2011-09-22 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pick your entries on your terms
2011-09-22 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a plan
2011-09-22 17:57:49 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Question Dave - what the Fed did yesterday..what is your opinion on it? I know better not to focus on fundas..but it was very confusing to me..Just wanted to know what your opinion was on it..Some folks on TT turned very bearish on it
2011-09-22 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we're dealing with huge intraday moves
2011-09-22 17:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2011-09-22 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we discussed on Tuesday
2011-09-22 17:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what they came up with
2011-09-22 17:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be looked upon as bearish
2011-09-22 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like I shared with Carl Swenlin last night when he commented on the FED twist
2011-09-22 17:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I told him that the FED had already done the "jerk" and the "swim" and they were running out of options
2011-09-22 17:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in all seriousness
2011-09-22 17:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that matters in trading is whether there is enough liquidity in the system or not for prices to be bid higher
2011-09-22 18:00:18 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: well what they have done affect anything in the longer run - that's what I was wondering about...Hence the question
2011-09-22 18:00:25 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: doesn't matter much to trading..
2011-09-22 18:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the bottom line
2011-09-22 18:00:37 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: true
2011-09-22 18:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here is NOT the FED...it's Congress
2011-09-22 18:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have to step out of the way
2011-09-22 18:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dump the health plan
2011-09-22 18:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: respect the Constitution
2011-09-22 18:01:24 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat:
2011-09-22 18:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and handle our country's finances as if they were their own
2011-09-22 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED can only do so much
2011-09-22 18:01:54 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Thanks
2011-09-22 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the plan is to increase taxes when there are no jobs
2011-09-22 18:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can kiss much of this goodbye
2011-09-22 18:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but hey
2011-09-22 18:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fashion suggests that everything is going to OK in the spring
2011-09-22 18:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-22 18:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as far as we're concerned in here
2011-09-22 18:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the market finds a way to construct a low
2011-09-22 18:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all we're concerned about
2011-09-22 18:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let others debate the good and the bad
2011-09-22 18:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discussions like that tend to hurt more than help
2011-09-22 18:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are usually started by those who just don't have a good trading track record in total
2011-09-22 18:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "excuse factor"
2011-09-22 18:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know the drill
2011-09-22 18:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trade didn't go right it's someone else's fault
2011-09-22 18:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: manipulation, etc.
2011-09-22 18:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't trade emotionally
2011-09-22 18:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't trade successfully if you allow news driven items dictate your next move
2011-09-22 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market uses this kind of stuff against you
2011-09-22 18:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it knows that your emotion and bias will get the better of you
2011-09-22 18:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be different this time
2011-09-22 18:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but so far we've done OK in here in what looks to be quite chaotic and not forecastable
2011-09-22 18:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the ultimate sentiment indicator be your guide - breadth
2011-09-22 18:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market knows what we all know
2011-09-22 18:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably knows more than what we do know
2011-09-22 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what changed last week for the market to rally 500 points?
2011-09-22 18:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing
2011-09-22 18:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in two days...it's all gone
2011-09-22 18:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gotcha!
2011-09-22 18:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2011-09-22 18:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-09-22 18:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-09-22 18:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again next Tuesday
2011-09-22 18:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-09-22 18:09:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx

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