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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-09-21 15:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-09-21 15:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-09-21 16:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-09-21 16:01:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thanks
2010-09-21 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-09-21 16:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but before we do
2010-09-21 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday was an important day for the intermediate term
2010-09-21 16:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now all but solidified the lows for the year
2010-09-21 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this is that pretty much all of the breadth MCSUM's were able to move above their August highs on Monday
2010-09-21 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this blew out any chance of bearish divergence
2010-09-21 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're only faced with a possible momentum high
2010-09-21 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...1025 is out
2010-09-21 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1050 is only a maybe
2010-09-21 16:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1075 seems to be the downside risk at this juncture
2010-09-21 16:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll know more as time passes
2010-09-21 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said...
2010-09-21 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2010-09-21 16:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have the potential of bear divergence in place between price and the MCO on the short term trend of money flow
2010-09-21 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should be enough to begin the long awaited pause to refresh that we've been looking for over the last 2-3 weeks
2010-09-21 16:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trigger of this pause will be a move below last weeks lows in the CO breadth MCO
2010-09-21 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this occurs...one shouldn't blindly short the market as the downside potential remains shallow
2010-09-21 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take several days to show cracks wide enough so that the price pattern can decline in a meaningful way
2010-09-21 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2010-09-21 16:07:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: won't take much to break that mco low
2010-09-21 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we'll initially see is choppy behavior
2010-09-21 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-09-21 16:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one shouldn't go all in on any break
2010-09-21 16:07:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2010-09-21 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we're going into the 4th week above the MCO zero line
2010-09-21 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that history suggests that a break back below the zero line is the next expectation
2010-09-21 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that probably won't happen until next week at the earliest
2010-09-21 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should happen here
2010-09-21 16:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a breakdown to the zero line
2010-09-21 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bounce off the zero line
2010-09-21 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe for a day...maybe 2
2010-09-21 16:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN we'll move below zero
2010-09-21 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I wouldn't be looking for anything worth anything outside of an intraday trade to work with on the short side until sometime next week
2010-09-21 16:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we discussed last week...
2010-09-21 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pause could last into the end of October...early November
2010-09-21 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after that
2010-09-21 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless something very different occurs
2010-09-21 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be off to the races on the upside after this pause in the pattern is complete
2010-09-21 16:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now at its +250 level
2010-09-21 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...a correction from this level would give better bear fruit as opposed to being closer to the +500 level
2010-09-21 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a context thing for now
2010-09-21 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have been talking about over and over again
2010-09-21 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there really isn't any great reason to look to short until the MCSUM turns lower
2010-09-21 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from whatever level it does so, will then give us our next blueprint to work with
2010-09-21 16:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be pointed out
2010-09-21 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the upside objective given by the MCO back in July of challenging the May price highs has pretty much been met
2010-09-21 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it proves to be a good lesson when working with this kind of thing
2010-09-21 16:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price objectives given by the MCO will continue to be in place until an equal and opposite force cancels this same objective
2010-09-21 16:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we got close to canceling out the May highs
2010-09-21 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we really didn't fully take them off the table
2010-09-21 16:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (but boy...we got real close in doing so)
2010-09-21 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line is
2010-09-21 16:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sometimes these things take time
2010-09-21 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a higher price high...a pullback ensues...and then the momentum high is reached
2010-09-21 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually with divergence
2010-09-21 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like now
2010-09-21 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the bulls must continue to be cautious
2010-09-21 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason being
2010-09-21 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-09-21 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it still hasn't moved above its August highs as the CO MCSUM has
2010-09-21 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this suggests that the market isn't totally in sync now
2010-09-21 16:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the broader market is not leading a portion of the greater whole
2010-09-21 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to be mindful of the fact
2010-09-21 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM now has a "overbought" reading of +768
2010-09-21 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the air up here is starting to get a little thin
2010-09-21 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2010-09-21 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will tend to labor
2010-09-21 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like today
2010-09-21 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it showed a burst of energy with the FED Statement
2010-09-21 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then exhaled all of the gains just as quickly
2010-09-21 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...although being patient and on the sidelines has been a frustrating to some
2010-09-21 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't really such a bad idea here
2010-09-21 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need better character before we'll see any real advance
2010-09-21 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if the market should find its second wind tomorrow or Thursday
2010-09-21 16:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to take another look at what may be going here
2010-09-21 16:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds are not with the bulls and the current advance at this juncture
2010-09-21 16:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2010-09-21 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a high level consolidation is our minimal expectation for the near term
2010-09-21 16:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean a lot of chop
2010-09-21 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can correct any excesses "on the fly"
2010-09-21 16:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapback to the breakout points that were violated on Monday
2010-09-21 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can feel comfortable in entering new longs
2010-09-21 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need some time to "cool off"
2010-09-21 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now supporting a level of -40
2010-09-21 16:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can call this a zero line snapback is now complete
2010-09-21 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the zero line provides a near term ceiling
2010-09-21 16:23:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't care much for today's breadth after yesterdays
2010-09-21 16:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside objective for this MCSUM would be the August top in the MCSUM
2010-09-21 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's expected
2010-09-21 16:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're labored
2010-09-21 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're tired
2010-09-21 16:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're exhausted
2010-09-21 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the trend remains friendly as long at the MCO supports bottoms above bottoms
2010-09-21 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take that away...and not only would the market be labored
2010-09-21 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would had taken a seat
2010-09-21 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth is going to decay here
2010-09-21 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the MCSUM goes, the harder it is to get larger plurality numbers to keep it in that direction
2010-09-21 16:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with a reading of +763
2010-09-21 16:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're going to see breadth start to deteriorate
2010-09-21 16:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't necessarily mean "short" either
2010-09-21 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again - when the MCSUM is as high as it is
2010-09-21 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrections will tend to be shallow until the MCSUM can get closer to its zero line...a more neutral reading between buyers and sellers
2010-09-21 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means
2010-09-21 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we recently saw in the XLU
2010-09-21 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just because the MCSUM tops, and starts to move lower, doesn't mean that prices will follow
2010-09-21 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will...
2010-09-21 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually...
2010-09-21 16:27:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth never broke the july highs, although price did, and now will deteriorate-hard for me to be as bullish as you
2010-09-21 16:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make higher price highs first, with the MCSUM at a lower level, and THEN it would be time to look for entry points on the short side
2010-09-21 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm bullish?
2010-09-21 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-21 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just reading the tea leaves here
2010-09-21 16:28:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: more than me, I think lol
2010-09-21 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I believe you're still holding on to a price objective, given by another methodology that, with yesterdays thrust, has very little chance now of being met
2010-09-21 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would have to hope for the MCSUM now to move lower
2010-09-21 16:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2010-09-21 16:29:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, but I wouldn't count a C wave finishing here out, either
2010-09-21 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would have to take out the late August lows to hit 1025 now
2010-09-21 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you have to think of an alternative that would fit the internals
2010-09-21 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first one that comes to mind is a triangle of some kind
2010-09-21 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe in the form of a series of 1's and 2's to the upside?
2010-09-21 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the thrust we had yesterday
2010-09-21 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must also change your thinking
2010-09-21 16:30:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: can see one, but I'm staying open both ways, honestly-on my best behavior
2010-09-21 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand
2010-09-21 16:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I think you know what I'm saying here
2010-09-21 16:31:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I do, but the highest high here came divergently
2010-09-21 16:31:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, yes I do, and listening!
2010-09-21 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't be married to your count...treat it as something that would be nice if it happens...but you need more backing you up to reach the goal
2010-09-21 16:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes divergence doesn't mean a downside objective
2010-09-21 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergence only means that the upside is tiring
2010-09-21 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: laboring
2010-09-21 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not as robust as it once was
2010-09-21 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still has inherent strength
2010-09-21 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because you have bottoms above bottoms
2010-09-21 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have structure
2010-09-21 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: character
2010-09-21 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may had peaked at a lower level
2010-09-21 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pattern of construction that got you here is different than...let's say...July's
2010-09-21 16:33:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I almost got carried away on a bull count yesterday, but when I look deeper, I don't care for the generals leading-and the speed that mco dropped today, some of those bottoms will be gone quite soon, it seems
2010-09-21 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good
2010-09-21 16:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really shouldn't get carried away on ANY Elliott count
2010-09-21 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all supposition anyway
2010-09-21 16:34:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you've reformed me, I'll assume neither way
2010-09-21 16:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially intraday
2010-09-21 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...
2010-09-21 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take it from someone who has had to learn his lessons the hard way
2010-09-21 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-09-21 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the 80's
2010-09-21 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy was I married to the Grand Super Cycle stuff
2010-09-21 16:35:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm only using count on individual stocks here-for day trades-and it's working much better, thanks
2010-09-21 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I almost missed quite a rally in the 90's because of it
2010-09-21 16:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-09-21 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because I believe the sloppiness in the indices is really hard to count here
2010-09-21 16:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to take a leader in an index...it will tend to give you a clearer picture
2010-09-21 16:36:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, been playing Google
2010-09-21 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are you doing?
2010-09-21 16:36:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super
2010-09-21 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-09-21 16:37:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: big moves, very nice
2010-09-21 16:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that...more than likely...what once was a leader, doesn't mean it will be one in the next pattern sequence
2010-09-21 16:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you already know that
2010-09-21 16:38:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it was trailing aapl a bit in time, and ran almost duplicate
2010-09-21 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a good example
2010-09-21 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL
2010-09-21 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's it done for you lately?
2010-09-21 16:38:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: gave me Google, lol
2010-09-21 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-09-21 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was reading yesterday on how MSFT's BING is really starting to take market share away from GOOG over the last 4 months
2010-09-21 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only hope
2010-09-21 16:39:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I like Bing a lot
2010-09-21 16:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me three
2010-09-21 16:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ok
2010-09-21 16:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2010-09-21 16:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO moved lower today
2010-09-21 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it took out its reaction low of last week in the process
2010-09-21 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be our canary here as to when we should expect our pause to begin
2010-09-21 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2010-09-21 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a really nice run in the NDX price pattern over the last 3 weeks
2010-09-21 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 13%
2010-09-21 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can cause one to ponder what the real Elliot count might be for the market in general
2010-09-21 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has a nice third wave look to it
2010-09-21 16:42:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure does
2010-09-21 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the NDX breadth MCSUM at around the +750 level
2010-09-21 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...even if we do see the MCSUM move lower here
2010-09-21 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see one more move higher to test the April highs before we see a longer pause in the pattern
2010-09-21 16:43:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wish the NAZ overall looked better
2010-09-21 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also gives the bulls a lot to talk about as the NDX is leading higher here
2010-09-21 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...liquidity is in other areas
2010-09-21 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's the job of institutions to be invested
2010-09-21 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...they will tend to put their money into areas in which show a return on equity than take a chance with garbage stocks when things are "undecided"
2010-09-21 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes sense to me
2010-09-21 16:45:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, but unfortunately, it leaves the generals leading, and the rally narrow
2010-09-21 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM moved above its August highs on Monday
2010-09-21 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if I would call the NDX generals
2010-09-21 16:45:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: huge cap, I would
2010-09-21 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...they are part of a secondary marketplace
2010-09-21 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know, I know
2010-09-21 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...I'm really sorry
2010-09-21 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks that can qualify being listed on the NYSE
2010-09-21 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't
2010-09-21 16:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are doing themselves a disservice
2010-09-21 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would do much better served for their investors if they switched
2010-09-21 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-09-21 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would go out on a limb an say
2010-09-21 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if a stock like...MSFT...moved to the NYSE...it would be up 20% "in value" in less than 2 months
2010-09-21 16:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a stigma with the NASDAQ
2010-09-21 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot of traders just like me who think the same way
2010-09-21 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of that today has to do with electronic trading
2010-09-21 16:48:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: is there with NDX, though?
2010-09-21 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX is the top 100 stocks that TRADE on the NASDAQ
2010-09-21 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the NYSE
2010-09-21 16:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..some do
2010-09-21 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you're getting into semantics now
2010-09-21 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-09-21 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...I've got to tell you
2010-09-21 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals look fantastic here
2010-09-21 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the underlying flow of money remains very strong
2010-09-21 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know that there is plenty out there to keep it going
2010-09-21 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is so buoyant right now that it can't even correct move than .5% during the day without rising back up to the surface
2010-09-21 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that alone should keep your shorting finger tied behind your back
2010-09-21 16:52:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we may be finishing a 1 of 3 of 3 here-that's whats keeping my hands tied-but ready
2010-09-21 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the April highs will probably turn out to be just a intermediate term resting point
2010-09-21 16:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you maybe very right on that one
2010-09-21 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I must stress again
2010-09-21 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by our taking out the August highs in the breadth MCSUM's
2010-09-21 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now changed the blueprint on what we should expect from this point forward
2010-09-21 16:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside risk shows solid...and I mean SOLID support...with the end June lows
2010-09-21 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that we've moved to higher highs on the MCSUM's
2010-09-21 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take quite an effort by the bears just to break below the August lows now
2010-09-21 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the August lows could also be referred to as being truncated end given that we've been able now to move to higher highs
2010-09-21 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2010-09-21 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the robust move in the NDX
2010-09-21 16:55:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the NDX gives me a P-3 feel, and it led out the last move from last March
2010-09-21 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2010-09-21 16:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the primaries "should" follow about 1-2 months behind (in a general sense)
2010-09-21 16:56:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: YES
2010-09-21 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is a lame duck Government in DC
2010-09-21 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: executive branch one way...legislative another
2010-09-21 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this market will go go go
2010-09-21 16:57:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will get, probably
2010-09-21 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2010-09-21 16:57:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: love the setup, though
2010-09-21 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2010-09-21 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID breadth MCSUM
2010-09-21 16:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that we've now crossed above the +250 level
2010-09-21 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a strong gap higher with yesterdays action
2010-09-21 16:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's take a moment to look at the chart pattern of the MID
2010-09-21 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a beautiful series of bottoms above bottoms controlling the pattern on the one year chart
2010-09-21 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a breakout now above the double top highs of the last 6 months
2010-09-21 16:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term, this is the simplest way to know the probable direction of the market
2010-09-21 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without knowing too much about this and that methodology
2010-09-21 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that the NYAD line is already at all time highs
2010-09-21 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's following the lead of the preferred A/D line
2010-09-21 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is following the lead of the Bond CEF's
2010-09-21 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like it says in "the textbook"
2010-09-21 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if one is bearish here
2010-09-21 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more because of what they "feel" than what they "see"
2010-09-21 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-09-21 17:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping us from getting all out bullish
2010-09-21 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we come to the SML data
2010-09-21 17:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first piece of good news here is with the high level consolidation pattern we see with the SML breadth MCO that we've seen over the last several weeks
2010-09-21 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this a "complex pattern" above the zero line
2010-09-21 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and shows us directly that the bulls have total control of the short term trend of money flow
2010-09-21 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the complex formation
2010-09-21 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM has now been able to move from a divergent low of around -750 and all the way back to, and now above, its zero line
2010-09-21 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the interim of making these highs
2010-09-21 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also took out the August MCSUM highs as well
2010-09-21 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so internally...this basket of stocks is now seeing its best support in over a year
2010-09-21 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how long on the 3 year
2010-09-21 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best since the March 2009 lows
2010-09-21 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course...this would be very good news for the upcoming longevity of any advancing price structure that may come about later on
2010-09-21 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's look at the 3 year SML price chart for a moment - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSumSML.html
2010-09-21 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks pretty good, doesn't it?
2010-09-21 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a double bottom structure
2010-09-21 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what looks to be a platform bottom
2010-09-21 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2010-09-21 17:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the correction that started in April
2010-09-21 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was a "reminder" correction
2010-09-21 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's to say
2010-09-21 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was fundamentally based on what drove the markets to collapse back in 2008
2010-09-21 17:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at a higher price level and with a shallower outcome
2010-09-21 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "wall of worry" is again reinforced to further support the price structure
2010-09-21 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people started getting too bullish at the beginning of the year if you remember
2010-09-21 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now?
2010-09-21 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be said that the banking stocks are still a problem?
2010-09-21 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in reality are looking structurally better when you take a peak under the hood?
2010-09-21 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a matter of context
2010-09-21 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can get the boys and girls in Washington to spin their wheels for a while
2010-09-21 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get nothing done
2010-09-21 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already have things in place in which the market can feed off of
2010-09-21 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we heard today, the FED isn't going to take their foot off the gas pedal anytime soon
2010-09-21 17:11:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think things have gotten better quickly, but lots of folks want a fast fix of a long problem
2010-09-21 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's no more spending...
2010-09-21 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't think that way
2010-09-21 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market works on other dynamics
2010-09-21 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already know...for a fact...that we have more liquidity at this time than at ANY time in history
2010-09-21 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money has to go somewhere
2010-09-21 17:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will seek out areas of "undervaluation" as long as it knows it will be able to be moved around without the fear of losing its intrinsic worth
2010-09-21 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no matter how much you HATE what's going on politically
2010-09-21 17:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's a stop to it..or at least it slows down...then money will move into equities
2010-09-21 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...it's moving into gold
2010-09-21 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the more it moves into gold
2010-09-21 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooner or later down the line
2010-09-21 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it moves out of gold
2010-09-21 17:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to reach equities over time
2010-09-21 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter the talking heads say
2010-09-21 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what a bunch of know nothing economists proclaim as being fact (or fiction)
2010-09-21 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets run on a different level that has a little to do with basic economics
2010-09-21 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it doesn't rely on it to move either higher or lower
2010-09-21 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the adage that "it's not people buying that make prices go up..."
2010-09-21 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the same as
2010-09-21 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not people believing in themselves that makes the economy expand
2010-09-21 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's money pushing up prices that makes people believe in themselves (the wealth factor)
2010-09-21 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you've lost your job
2010-09-21 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're not going to agree that the economy is good
2010-09-21 17:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you have a job
2010-09-21 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you get a rise
2010-09-21 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the economy is good
2010-09-21 17:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (even if it's not)
2010-09-21 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the Alice in Wonderland syndrome
2010-09-21 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's good is bad
2010-09-21 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's bad is good
2010-09-21 17:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry for the tangent
2010-09-21 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-09-21 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 3 year chart of the total market - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSumCurrentTOTMKT.html
2010-09-21 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first thing that sticks out is the 5 month sideways consolidation pattern
2010-09-21 17:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how the February lows held the price structure intact
2010-09-21 17:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's breaking out yesterday
2010-09-21 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now increases the likelihood that this consolidation is that of a platform base
2010-09-21 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause to refresh after moving up...what?
2010-09-21 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 60% in one year?
2010-09-21 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we did is pull back...what?
2010-09-21 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 15%?
2010-09-21 17:20:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why do the mcsums break out without the MCO's doing so?
2010-09-21 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's get their information from the MCO's
2010-09-21 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is the short term trend
2010-09-21 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is part of the intermediate trend in which the MCSUM provides
2010-09-21 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO shows its magic at points where there is gap resistance in the MCSUM (for example)
2010-09-21 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or where there's support or resistance zones
2010-09-21 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is your fuel gauge
2010-09-21 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM shows you the direction you're going with the amount of fuel used and how fast you're getting there
2010-09-21 17:22:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice analogy, thanks
2010-09-21 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the car analogy for an example
2010-09-21 17:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you step on the gas pedal all the way to the floor
2010-09-21 17:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then lift off the accelerator
2010-09-21 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will still move forward
2010-09-21 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you don't need as much fuel to burn to do so
2010-09-21 17:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now...we're still using fuel
2010-09-21 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean that our "trip" will continue
2010-09-21 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we will also continue to slow by the very effect of ummm....resistance
2010-09-21 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all physics
2010-09-21 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the space shuttle
2010-09-21 17:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it launches
2010-09-21 17:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the higher it goes
2010-09-21 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less fuel it needs to get into orbit
2010-09-21 17:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if you shut down the engines
2010-09-21 17:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or reduce the amount of fuel burned
2010-09-21 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the space craft will continue to move in the direction it was pointed
2010-09-21 17:24:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: without new MCO highs, though, do we have targets?
2010-09-21 17:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's job in producing targets was done in August
2010-09-21 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it pointed us to the idea that prices were going to challenge the May highs minimally
2010-09-21 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had an outside chance that the April highs would also be challenged
2010-09-21 17:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...back the space shuttle
2010-09-21 17:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we thrust higher in July
2010-09-21 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we turned off the engines in August
2010-09-21 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we set a mid course correction just recently
2010-09-21 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we were already further away from the force of gravity
2010-09-21 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take as much fuel to reach the initial objective of the blast-off
2010-09-21 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why
2010-09-21 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the MCO moves back down to the zero line and even moves below it (the fuel source is shut down)
2010-09-21 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are still so far above the MCSUM zero line (earth)
2010-09-21 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's going to take some time to re-enter the portion of the atmosphere in which gravity can apply a greater and greater influence (price)
2010-09-21 17:28:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, we still don't want to see those lower bottoms go-no?
2010-09-21 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be sure that we WILL see a series of tops beneath tops
2010-09-21 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: expect it
2010-09-21 17:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the context of these tops will be in direct proportion to how high above the earth (zero line) we are
2010-09-21 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2010-09-21 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you are at 100,000 feet above the earth in a glider
2010-09-21 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you start your descent
2010-09-21 17:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aren't you able to glide higher on your way down?
2010-09-21 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will you just fall to earth?
2010-09-21 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see this in air shows all the time
2010-09-21 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-09-21 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're too close to the ground, you're not likely to have enough "space" (air dynamics) to pull up
2010-09-21 17:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why MCSUM failure patterns are so devastating
2010-09-21 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you try to pull up before hitting zero (the ground)
2010-09-21 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you don't have enough energy or momentum to move away from the zero line
2010-09-21 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you stall
2010-09-21 17:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down you go
2010-09-21 17:32:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah, thanks
2010-09-21 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "crash"
2010-09-21 17:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when we talk about not shorting when the MCSUM is moving against you
2010-09-21 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not because you can't make money doing this
2010-09-21 17:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just that much harder to do so
2010-09-21 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and isn't it better to make money with the least amount of effort?
2010-09-21 17:33:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet
2010-09-21 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this consolidation is almost over
2010-09-21 17:33:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hate to swim against the current
2010-09-21 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see this now with the breakouts
2010-09-21 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market wants to go higher
2010-09-21 17:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the "path of LEAST resistance"
2010-09-21 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no sense in trying to stand in the way
2010-09-21 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing missing has been the conviction (as measured by U/D volume)
2010-09-21 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're getting that now as well
2010-09-21 17:34:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if it wasn't for the NDX, it would have been much harder for me to see - just like last March
2010-09-21 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about the longer term charts?
2010-09-21 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check this out...what do you see? http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSumCurrentNDX.html
2010-09-21 17:35:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: perfect set up, you know, I think the secular bear is dead
2010-09-21 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was never really alive
2010-09-21 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a slip
2010-09-21 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take a look at the longer term picture
2010-09-21 17:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NDX
2010-09-21 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be an inverted head and shoulders?
2010-09-21 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (my my)
2010-09-21 17:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2010-09-21 17:37:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: large
2010-09-21 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see that high point in March?
2010-09-21 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that tells us that we still have further to go on the upside
2010-09-21 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the April highs, although they felt bad, we're not important ones
2010-09-21 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was time for the market to shake out the weak hands
2010-09-21 17:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in today's world of instantaneous knowledge
2010-09-21 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we sometimes lose site of the bigger picture
2010-09-21 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tend to live and die on each and every tick
2010-09-21 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so sometimes...like every month...we need to take birds eye view look of things for better context
2010-09-21 17:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-09-21 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the volume oscillators
2010-09-21 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI is pretty much neutral now
2010-09-21 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are in better shape...but still on the "overbought" side
2010-09-21 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are "overbought"
2010-09-21 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the VTO's get like this
2010-09-21 17:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that we're going to see much more upside unless we get some sort of pause in the action first
2010-09-21 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and adding to that
2010-09-21 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're not likely to see any real price decay until we move back below the zero line on the VTO's
2010-09-21 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.24
2010-09-21 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2010-09-21 17:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2010-09-21 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .99
2010-09-21 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .83
2010-09-21 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more "overbought" than neutral
2010-09-21 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.08
2010-09-21 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89
2010-09-21 17:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-09-21 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do every thing...churn, churn, churn
2010-09-21 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what we should expect near term
2010-09-21 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see a sharp decline or advance based on a news event
2010-09-21 17:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not likely to hold for more than a couple of hours
2010-09-21 17:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just took a look at the volume McClellan's
2010-09-21 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the good news there is that we are in sync right now with breadth
2010-09-21 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what that means is...
2010-09-21 17:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises we might have near term...will probably be to the upside
2010-09-21 17:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trend traders...keep doing your homework
2010-09-21 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: scalpers...be nimble...be quick
2010-09-21 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-09-21 17:48:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great session, thanks for your input
2010-09-21 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep breath...in and out
2010-09-21 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't lose your focus
2010-09-21 17:49:08 [Message] gman -> Chat: Dave, have you started thinking about what you are adding to your core accounts
2010-09-21 17:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after I get a better set up...then I will
2010-09-21 17:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm waiting
2010-09-21 17:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are areas out there that can be exploited
2010-09-21 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about those last Thursday
2010-09-21 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't have breadth data there
2010-09-21 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ohhh...that reminds me
2010-09-21 17:50:26 [Message] gman -> Chat: yes we did
2010-09-21 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sorry I wasn't able to add commentary on last weekend's breadth charts
2010-09-21 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what I will point out...one sec - let me get the chart
2010-09-21 17:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regarding the DAX breadth data - http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad10/breadthdax091710.gif
2010-09-21 17:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sharp decline we saw in August
2010-09-21 17:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounced right off support of the longer term rising bottoms line
2010-09-21 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although it looks like it's a pattern of weakness
2010-09-21 17:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the DAX A/D data move back above its previous trend in...let's say...the next 2 weeks
2010-09-21 17:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sharp decline was probably part of a cycle low of one kind of the other
2010-09-21 17:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would fully compliment what we're seeing in the US and FTSE internals
2010-09-21 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my data on the DAX only goes back to 2007
2010-09-21 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I don't have a long term reading on this
2010-09-21 17:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I throw it out there for digestion
2010-09-21 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-09-21 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it's time to say a fond adieu
2010-09-21 17:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2010-09-21 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2010-09-21 17:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-09-21 17:55:26 [Message] gman -> Chat: see ya Thursday - Thanks

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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