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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-09-20 16:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-09-20 16:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-09-20 16:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2012-09-20 16:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have two chat sessions next week...but on Wednesday and Thursday...no chat on Tuesday
2012-09-20 16:02:25 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Thanks for the reminder.
2012-09-20 16:02:31 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Very interesting close.
2012-09-20 16:02:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: doing well, a bit of shopping....You?
2012-09-20 16:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or commments before we get started??
2012-09-20 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just got back from LA
2012-09-20 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a lot of "Debbie Downers" there :(
2012-09-20 16:03:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: boo
2012-09-20 16:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's business to be had
2012-09-20 16:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest problem there is that many base their "wealth value" on property
2012-09-20 16:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though it's stable...the press isn't telling them it's OK as yet
2012-09-20 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heading into San Francisco next week...we'll see how things are there
2012-09-20 16:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next year I will be traveling the entire country...so I should be able to give a good read then
2012-09-20 16:05:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: maybe KBH gives us an almost OK sign tomorrow
2012-09-20 16:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they come out with earnings?
2012-09-20 16:05:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: premarket
2012-09-20 16:05:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: tomorrow
2012-09-20 16:05:59 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: I just saw something on breaking news that could be big
2012-09-20 16:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the stocks has (whoa) doubled in 3 months
2012-09-20 16:06:06 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: cyber attacks on banks by Iran
2012-09-20 16:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something must be doing OK
2012-09-20 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we keep cash in the safe at home, right? :)
2012-09-20 16:06:39 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol
2012-09-20 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or maybe the mattress
2012-09-20 16:06:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have October KBH calls, I'm holding, twt
2012-09-20 16:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your choice
2012-09-20 16:06:55 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: but I think if it becomes a "deal", no way the big boyz let the market fall
2012-09-20 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this really has little to do with boys...big or little
2012-09-20 16:07:22 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: random thoughts - sorry
2012-09-20 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all about the amount of cash there is in the system
2012-09-20 16:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't be sorry
2012-09-20 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a good thought
2012-09-20 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have remain focused on what is truly important
2012-09-20 16:07:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, gold filled the gap down today-money IS out there
2012-09-20 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...I'm up 50% in my gold positions since the buy in August
2012-09-20 16:08:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why not!
2012-09-20 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing
2012-09-20 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is a measurement of "impending" inflationary expectations
2012-09-20 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inflation itself can be absorbed by the amount of productivity there is in the system
2012-09-20 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-09-20 16:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I find the productivity numbers as being the single most important piece of information in this "reflation" policy that we've enjoyed now since 2002
2012-09-20 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if productivity drops
2012-09-20 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN you feel inflation
2012-09-20 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so last months "stronger than expected" productivity number pretty much is keeping inflation in check
2012-09-20 16:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2012-09-20 16:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has little to do with the price of gas
2012-09-20 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it does
2012-09-20 16:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's a far different mechanism at work there
2012-09-20 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and part of that is the playing of the war drums over the last 3 months in the Persian Gulf region
2012-09-20 16:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway for another time and place
2012-09-20 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's get DP up and see what I've been missing over the last 3 days
2012-09-20 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to a highly "overbought" level last Friday
2012-09-20 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now retraced back to its zero line
2012-09-20 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of -3
2012-09-20 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we are at the zero line
2012-09-20 16:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 10% index has snapped back to the 5% index
2012-09-20 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should look for some sort of bounce on Friday...at least internally
2012-09-20 16:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern itself is in another one of our "pause to refresh" modes
2012-09-20 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: basically working off the froth that we saw with last Friday's high number on the ISEE data
2012-09-20 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested that many frustrated traders, probably bearish ones, turn and switched and tried to make a killing by taking out front month call options at cheap prices with only a week to go
2012-09-20 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again, they will expire worthless
2012-09-20 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spanked again
2012-09-20 16:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically speaking
2012-09-20 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-09-20 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that were looking for more of a complex MCO pattern to possibly develop over this same week period
2012-09-20 16:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because we didn't get that
2012-09-20 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the laws of supply and demand are once again on the forefront as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now approaching its next natural area of resistance at the +750 level
2012-09-20 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall
2012-09-20 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain solidly in control of the action
2012-09-20 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also note
2012-09-20 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that during this one week consolidation
2012-09-20 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that on the NYA price chart that we have now snapped back to what was our previous overhead resistance level from earlier this year during this process
2012-09-20 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thinking back to last week when the SPX did the same thing
2012-09-20 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taken together with the zero line test
2012-09-20 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less September futures going off the board at the close today
2012-09-20 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next leg higher could start as soon as tomorrow
2012-09-20 16:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite data
2012-09-20 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also have a zero line test fulfilled on the NYSE breadth MCO
2012-09-20 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...we have a reading today of -.26
2012-09-20 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call that zero
2012-09-20 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-09-20 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the broader strength that continues to hold prices up from declining in any important way with a current reading of +884
2012-09-20 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also leading the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to the upside
2012-09-20 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also keep in mind
2012-09-20 16:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this weeks hesitation also comes at a time where the NYSE CO A/D line was less than 132 net advancing issues from making new all time highs last Friday
2012-09-20 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a simple regrouping would be a reasonable expectation before going into battle this same line of defense
2012-09-20 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the NYSE breadth MCO components are showing the same number here - +88
2012-09-20 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce is also indicated here as well
2012-09-20 16:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have pretty much the same story with the NASDAQ breadth MCO and its components
2012-09-20 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of which are suggesting a near term bounce to take place
2012-09-20 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with any good follow through the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM will be challenging the +500 level which was our expectation since the break above the MCSUM gap resistance area at the beginning of September
2012-09-20 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...it looks to be your standard correction in a strong trend
2012-09-20 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if the NDX has improved at all
2012-09-20 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO continued to have its problems negotiating above the +50 level
2012-09-20 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now slowly relieved any froth in the buying that took place last week
2012-09-20 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to maintain a series of 5 (or 6) bottoms above bottoms here
2012-09-20 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this is maintained
2012-09-20 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have the power
2012-09-20 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have control
2012-09-20 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the reason why the market can see intraday sell offs like it has over the last 2-3 days
2012-09-20 16:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: get everyone "excited" of a top
2012-09-20 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then promptly close at or near either flat or the highs of the day
2012-09-20 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is absolutely no strength coming on the sell side at this time
2012-09-20 16:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there won't be until the MCSUM's that are well above the +500 are able to move back below this important level
2012-09-20 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...there's lots of worry
2012-09-20 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about the same things
2012-09-20 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it hasn't stopped the Dow and SPX from moving to within striking distance of their all time highs, has it?
2012-09-20 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are seeing a classic "wall of worry" here
2012-09-20 16:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the media continues to harp on this stuff
2012-09-20 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this wall will not only remain intact
2012-09-20 16:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will tend to get stronger the higher we go along
2012-09-20 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-09-20 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the market is not facing reality
2012-09-20 16:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it doesn't know what it's doing
2012-09-20 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that each new high is "tricksy, false"
2012-09-20 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this keeps the majority from climbing on the board the "trend train"
2012-09-20 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which provides fuel for the rally
2012-09-20 16:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as time and time again shorts have to cover
2012-09-20 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2012-09-20 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on
2012-09-20 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same MCO construction with the SPX data
2012-09-20 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looky here
2012-09-20 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this current pause slows the rate of ascent for the SPX breadth MCSUM as it approaches the important +500 level
2012-09-20 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same kind of importance that we saw prior to last Thursday's rally
2012-09-20 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the SPX breadth MCSUM was about to move above the previous highs seen in July and August
2012-09-20 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might run out of energy here
2012-09-20 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the broader NYSE breadth MCSUM doesn't suggest this
2012-09-20 16:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the MCSUM that over rides everything else as to its greater participation quotient that is very important in this kind of analysis
2012-09-20 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX
2012-09-20 16:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top 100 stocks in the SPX continue to remain more bouyant here
2012-09-20 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the SPX breadth MCSUM
2012-09-20 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM is about to challenge its +500 level as well
2012-09-20 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but without the drag we're seeing in the broader 500
2012-09-20 16:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could indeed be another character day is about to hit us here
2012-09-20 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just when it's "suppose to", or to be more poignant, when it can do so
2012-09-20 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow stocks are showing even more strength
2012-09-20 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-09-20 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone know for sure how many of the 30 stocks in the INDU are now at all time highs right now?
2012-09-20 16:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know there are several
2012-09-20 16:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though people tend to look at the higher weighted stocks like IBM
2012-09-20 16:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...I heard there's going to be a new Dow stock?
2012-09-20 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Kraft is out and United Heathcare takes its place?
2012-09-20 16:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that begins on Monday?
2012-09-20 16:40:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good deal
2012-09-20 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shows you the sign of the times
2012-09-20 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder what will happen if Obama Care is stricken by a new legislative body?
2012-09-20 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2012-09-20 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the heck is AA still in the Dow?
2012-09-20 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they take out food
2012-09-20 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keep an industry that is not at all the same as it used to be?
2012-09-20 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't make sense
2012-09-20 16:41:42 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: hide the inflation? a little?
2012-09-20 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2012-09-20 16:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if there is inflation
2012-09-20 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would take away from United's earnings I would think
2012-09-20 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...they have a large in with OC
2012-09-20 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't have insurance
2012-09-20 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waste of money for me
2012-09-20 16:42:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why?
2012-09-20 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I had to make a decision
2012-09-20 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all matters of insurance
2012-09-20 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is betting you're going to get hurt
2012-09-20 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other side is betting you're not
2012-09-20 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have carried medical insurance all my life
2012-09-20 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I haven't seen a doctor in over 20 years
2012-09-20 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I decided I put my money into long term care
2012-09-20 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which I'm almost vested now
2012-09-20 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take the ridiculous premiums of heath care and put it in my retirement
2012-09-20 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, at this point, it's STILL my choice to do this
2012-09-20 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with OC it won't be
2012-09-20 16:45:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: makes sense-I get mine from my wife's job (Cleveland Clinic) so I didn't need to think about it-it was 29$ a month
2012-09-20 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..at $29 a month you're making out like a bandit
2012-09-20 16:45:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-09-20 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mine was $300
2012-09-20 16:45:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super plan, as well
2012-09-20 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...as a small business owner
2012-09-20 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't get much to work with
2012-09-20 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no clout
2012-09-20 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm healthy
2012-09-20 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2012-09-20 16:46:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope-I was there for years...
2012-09-20 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that would matter right now is something that would be life threatening
2012-09-20 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...in another 10 years
2012-09-20 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be a different story
2012-09-20 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-09-20 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I rather control my own destiny while I still can
2012-09-20 16:47:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet
2012-09-20 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if I have a $50,000 bill, I'll deal with it then
2012-09-20 16:47:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you'll get medicare, no?
2012-09-20 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I ask for a government loan...I'm sure my Congress Man will take care of me...you know...bail me out!
2012-09-20 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2012-09-20 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that old
2012-09-20 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't want it anyway
2012-09-20 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: save it for someone who needs it
2012-09-20 16:48:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice of you
2012-09-20 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't believe in being "forced" to take government money if I don't need it
2012-09-20 16:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a attitude
2012-09-20 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-09-20 16:49:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: summer of love remnants, LOL
2012-09-20 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch...I'll have a heart attack tomorrow... :(
2012-09-20 16:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you keep yourself in shape
2012-09-20 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a guess anyway
2012-09-20 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: roll the dice
2012-09-20 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2012-09-20 16:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO has now moved back below its zero line
2012-09-20 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still remains above the end August lows
2012-09-20 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is this something to be concerned about right now?
2012-09-20 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not
2012-09-20 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a couple of reasons
2012-09-20 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone?
2012-09-20 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's three I can see
2012-09-20 16:51:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: summation support at 750 5's and 10's above zero
2012-09-20 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means?
2012-09-20 16:52:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I'd go with the 5's and tens take before the MCO's, but at worst, chop
2012-09-20 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrective activity..yes
2012-09-20 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're seeing that
2012-09-20 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else chart wise?
2012-09-20 16:53:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: really just a back test of the breakout here
2012-09-20 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2012-09-20 16:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-09-20 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2012-09-20 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a snapback up to the MCO zero line
2012-09-20 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given that the components remain above their zero line
2012-09-20 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we made a new flag on the last high spike in the MCO
2012-09-20 16:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we did find support intraday today at what was previous overhead resistance
2012-09-20 16:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have met all of the minimal expectations of a simple "pause to refresh"
2012-09-20 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where only the degree of negative sentiment would be needed to establish a low
2012-09-20 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...and what the "fear of the day" today?
2012-09-20 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Steve?
2012-09-20 16:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone was talking about the Transports
2012-09-20 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how they were coming apart
2012-09-20 16:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all that they were doing was moving to challenge, once again, the lower end of a simple trading range
2012-09-20 16:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so today on increasing volume
2012-09-20 16:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forecast?
2012-09-20 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very likely you saw a very important bottom in the Dow Transports today
2012-09-20 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep in mind
2012-09-20 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we talked about this for the last two weeks
2012-09-20 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we needed to go about the business of creating a tradable bottom in the XLI
2012-09-20 16:57:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it looked like growing bearmageddon at TT already today
2012-09-20 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we haven't looked as yet
2012-09-20 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't be too surprised if we're now pulling bullish divergence there
2012-09-20 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm finding this constant fighting of this trend to be astounding
2012-09-20 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one thing is for sure
2012-09-20 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should all take note
2012-09-20 16:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that those who have been preaching top
2012-09-20 16:58:53 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Dave, all I can say is I was there not too long ago - something finally clicked.
2012-09-20 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or preaching bearishness
2012-09-20 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are using very little in the way of technical evidence to back their opinions now
2012-09-20 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know Steve...and that's usually how it happens - something "clicks"
2012-09-20 16:59:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: unreal. the best are stopping, though, I notice
2012-09-20 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's amazing
2012-09-20 16:59:38 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yep - now it's "after the pop"
2012-09-20 16:59:43 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: right....
2012-09-20 16:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think I have seen so many people use so many excuses in all the years I've been doing this
2012-09-20 17:00:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: fundamental ones, no less
2012-09-20 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the strangest thing is it's the very same ones over and over again
2012-09-20 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just don't know
2012-09-20 17:00:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, that tsunami a couple hundred points ago was a "good reason" LOL
2012-09-20 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people are first "unimpressed"
2012-09-20 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then they're STILL unimpressed
2012-09-20 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continue to look at data that has nothing at all to do with what is driving the markets right now
2012-09-20 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-09-20 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that tsunami
2012-09-20 17:02:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm most unimpressed by the money they fail to make on this upmove
2012-09-20 17:02:05 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: that's too funny, Dave.  Both of those guys would really benefit from an awakening
2012-09-20 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw the post on "stair stepping" today
2012-09-20 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just couldn't believe it
2012-09-20 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who was it...oh..it was "Diogenes" who showed the daily chart
2012-09-20 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we kept asking the same question for a time in here
2012-09-20 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are our eyes deceiving us?
2012-09-20 17:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as it turned out...they were not
2012-09-20 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to believe in what we receive as information that determines the likely direction of prices
2012-09-20 17:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can still have a bearish overall attitude
2012-09-20 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's very important on when and where to apply it
2012-09-20 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is leaving the market
2012-09-20 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then things like Spain can and do matter more
2012-09-20 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because there is a loss of buoyancy that keeps prices from deteriorating
2012-09-20 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...
2012-09-20 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I go to LA
2012-09-20 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and think to myself
2012-09-20 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I HAVE to be bearish
2012-09-20 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all around me
2012-09-20 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we learn in here
2012-09-20 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you feel or see around you makes little difference if money is moving in the opposite direction
2012-09-20 17:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we take our cues from this
2012-09-20 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow money in and out
2012-09-20 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and allow others to come up with the reasons why
2012-09-20 17:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to us...it doesn't matter
2012-09-20 17:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will always be a cause
2012-09-20 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there will always be some sort of an effect that will follow
2012-09-20 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a contrarian
2012-09-20 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a lot of us know this in here having been doing this for a long time
2012-09-20 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the news is bearish
2012-09-20 17:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're making multi month lows in something like sentiment or housing or whatever
2012-09-20 17:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that a sign of a top?
2012-09-20 17:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't we usually see a top in prices once everything is "priced in"?
2012-09-20 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when prices can do nothing more than keep going up?
2012-09-20 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the 2009 lows?
2012-09-20 17:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the very existence of the US was being called into question?
2012-09-20 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we said in here
2012-09-20 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right around the 666 lows in the SPX
2012-09-20 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is about as strong of a price bottom that we've seen, sentiment wise, since the 1932 lows?
2012-09-20 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at us now
2012-09-20 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4% away from the all time highs in the Dow
2012-09-20 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still...the very existence of our capitalistic society is being called into question
2012-09-20 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how markets top?
2012-09-20 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not in my experience
2012-09-20 17:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and certainly not in the work I've done as a student of the market over the last 40 years
2012-09-20 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want a top?
2012-09-20 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will happen just like 2007
2012-09-20 17:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the staunchest of bears will turn bullish
2012-09-20 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "3 amigos" did so in May of 2007, remember?
2012-09-20 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Prechter
2012-09-20 17:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Eliades
2012-09-20 17:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Russell
2012-09-20 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was also at that time that the NYSE Bond CEF and REITS A/D lines had topped out
2012-09-20 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any evidence of that now?
2012-09-20 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2012-09-20 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to anything analytical is two fold
2012-09-20 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to be able to provide substantive data to back an opinion
2012-09-20 17:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2012-09-20 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: change with the tide
2012-09-20 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just gibberish
2012-09-20 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you keep screaming bear market time and time again
2012-09-20 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day you'll be right
2012-09-20 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at what cost?
2012-09-20 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much in what you may have lost while screaming your bias
2012-09-20 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all the money that you didn't make just by putting this same bias in a proper context in the way of trading
2012-09-20 17:15:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: amen
2012-09-20 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me...I was guilty of this
2012-09-20 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone here has been at one time or the other
2012-09-20 17:15:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OH BOY. me too
2012-09-20 17:16:07 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: ditto to whatever squared
2012-09-20 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you learn over time that without discipline and a plan you're not going to stick around very long
2012-09-20 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-09-20 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...off my podium...back to work
2012-09-20 17:17:01 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: Dave, would you mind taking a quick look a F when you get the chance - 12.5 by when, you think?
2012-09-20 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is now just below its zero line
2012-09-20 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure...at the end
2012-09-20 17:17:15 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: 10.4
2012-09-20 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the components kissing each other here
2012-09-20 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect some sort of bounce as soon as Friday
2012-09-20 17:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too
2012-09-20 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the minimal expectation of a price pattern snapback has also been met
2012-09-20 17:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could on the threshold of another move higher here
2012-09-20 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-09-20 17:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get into this portion of the advance
2012-09-20 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is very important as to our technical expectations
2012-09-20 17:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lies with the level of the various MCSUM's
2012-09-20 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that anything above the +500 level and it's just about impossible for the sell side to have any kind of power from breaking the current structural trend
2012-09-20 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so every pullback becomes a buying op because of that
2012-09-20 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the negative sentiment is there to back it up, even more so
2012-09-20 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a zero line snapback now complete on the TM breadth MCO
2012-09-20 17:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM having already achieved "escape velocity"
2012-09-20 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely that we're going to see the path of least resistance to the upside for still awhile longer
2012-09-20 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least to the end of this month
2012-09-20 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likey
2012-09-20 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: through mid October
2012-09-20 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLY breadth MCO
2012-09-20 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's pretty difficult to come up with something that would support a bearish forecast here
2012-09-20 17:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at how many bottoms above bottoms we have here
2012-09-20 17:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except for a brief break in mid July
2012-09-20 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's about 11
2012-09-20 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2012-09-20 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that each bottom is an exhaustion point for sellers
2012-09-20 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the bottoms
2012-09-20 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less and less sellers there are
2012-09-20 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there are less and less sellers out there
2012-09-20 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than any kind of buying is going to push prices higher
2012-09-20 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: supply and demand
2012-09-20 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for a technician it's ALWAYS regardless of what the fundamentals suggest
2012-09-20 17:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either now or expected
2012-09-20 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money only knows one thing
2012-09-20 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wants to make more money
2012-09-20 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the sellers can overwhelm the buyers to break the back of this ongoing trend
2012-09-20 17:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher
2012-09-20 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what bad news
2012-09-20 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the anticipation of bad news
2012-09-20 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might hear or read
2012-09-20 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just a distraction
2012-09-20 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have seen me make this comment many times over the last 2 months
2012-09-20 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially during the last two weeks of August
2012-09-20 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I had the confidence to be brash because I had the technical data behind me
2012-09-20 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nobody asks
2012-09-20 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just...ummm...debate :)
2012-09-20 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's fine too
2012-09-20 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2012-09-20 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if everyone decided to climb on board the train here
2012-09-20 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there still would be those who would get off at a moments notice
2012-09-20 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time to absorb this and change the way you were taught how the markets operate
2012-09-20 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the silly thing here
2012-09-20 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's so simple in concept
2012-09-20 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still the great majority trash breadth analysis
2012-09-20 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but believe in what an momentum oscillator suggests
2012-09-20 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same momentum oscillator, by the way, that is fully based on breadth analysis
2012-09-20 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really kind of funny when you think about it
2012-09-20 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so it goes
2012-09-20 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs on the XLP
2012-09-20 17:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the XLP breadth MCSUM
2012-09-20 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember our concern of its failure last Thursday?
2012-09-20 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again
2012-09-20 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears were nowhere to be found after the damage was done
2012-09-20 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...
2012-09-20 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money starts to move back in again
2012-09-20 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices move to higher highs
2012-09-20 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow through by Monday here and this sector could really run now to the upside
2012-09-20 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we already know that there's no one really around to stop it from doing so
2012-09-20 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have the potential of bear divergence in place with the XLE
2012-09-20 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was our technical expectation from about 2 or 3 weeks ago
2012-09-20 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2012-09-20 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the position of the MCO and its components
2012-09-20 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best that will probably happen is a trading range
2012-09-20 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the price pattern as well
2012-09-20 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oil got clobbered, what? on Tuesday?
2012-09-20 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices only retraced 2%?
2012-09-20 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a sign of underlying strength here
2012-09-20 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the majority, in this case the buyers, are seeing crude's pullback as temporary thing
2012-09-20 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would look for a higher close here tomorrow
2012-09-20 17:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting on how the sentiment is reacting of late with the financials
2012-09-20 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2012-09-20 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete on the price chart
2012-09-20 17:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and corrective activity on the MCO
2012-09-20 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLF breadth MCSUM is at higher highs
2012-09-20 17:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good for a hold for now
2012-09-20 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any print above last Friday's intraday price highs would be a buy point
2012-09-20 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at the strength of the XLV!
2012-09-20 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this thing is literally on cruise control now
2012-09-20 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the strength of the buyers being able to hold the XLV breadth MCO at around the +50 level
2012-09-20 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the resulting bullish structure of the XLV breadth MCSUM
2012-09-20 17:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the close up of the MCSUM...the wide gaps of money moving in here
2012-09-20 17:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLV is already at all time highs
2012-09-20 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let others look at APPLE and thinking that it's too expensive
2012-09-20 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is more to the market than one or two stocks
2012-09-20 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that keeps everyone distracted from where constant returns on capital are available
2012-09-20 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you like Obama Care
2012-09-20 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or you don't
2012-09-20 17:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter
2012-09-20 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is moving in
2012-09-20 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pushing prices higher
2012-09-20 17:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that changes
2012-09-20 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why even have it part of decision making process?
2012-09-20 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost up 10% from the July lows now
2012-09-20 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a market where you should leverage
2012-09-20 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a typical strong, and I dare say, boring trend
2012-09-20 17:42:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the healthcare stocks have spent a ton to adhere to it, I'm betting they know more than me
2012-09-20 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what they know doesn't matter
2012-09-20 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that matters is which way is money moving?
2012-09-20 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in or out?
2012-09-20 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these days
2012-09-20 17:43:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just following their money :)
2012-09-20 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't matter
2012-09-20 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you can play it both ways!
2012-09-20 17:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why should we care what the reasons are?
2012-09-20 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who have been around long enough know
2012-09-20 17:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that trends happen very rarely
2012-09-20 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe 20% of the time
2012-09-20 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why waste these precious points in a pattern on things that keep you from enjoying the work you put in to identifying such structures?
2012-09-20 17:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's literally easy money
2012-09-20 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like catching an ocean wave at its peak
2012-09-20 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you go with the directional flow
2012-09-20 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will be able to ride it without too much in the way of effort
2012-09-20 17:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wave does all the work for you!
2012-09-20 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we are at the XLI
2012-09-20 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do we see?
2012-09-20 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the XLI breadth MCO AND ITS COMPONENTS are above their zero line
2012-09-20 17:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls have control of the short term trend
2012-09-20 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to a lesser degree
2012-09-20 17:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intermediate term trend as well though we would like to see the XLI breadth MCSUM take out the pattern resistance from last month, no less, the +250 level, to really make things go
2012-09-20 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment...I want to see what the Transport components did today
2012-09-20 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trains were the problem
2012-09-20 17:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what's funny?
2012-09-20 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest gainer today on the Transports was...Overseas Shipping (OSG)
2012-09-20 17:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see now
2012-09-20 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do we have a manufacturing sector still in the US?
2012-09-20 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are we more of a service economy these days?
2012-09-20 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2012-09-20 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does Dow Theory have an relevance anymore?
2012-09-20 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just asking
2012-09-20 17:51:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2012-09-20 17:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a climactic day to me on the transports
2012-09-20 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 18 of the 20 were down
2012-09-20 17:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLI holding positive here
2012-09-20 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be something to watch for here
2012-09-20 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rush
2012-09-20 17:52:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: perfect spot, you saw the posts :)
2012-09-20 17:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the index prove itself
2012-09-20 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...yea...sentiment says buy
2012-09-20 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would say "sell" if everyone was thinking it was a buy point, right?
2012-09-20 17:52:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2012-09-20 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's the use of being a contrarian if you don't take advantage of those opportunities that present themselves as such?
2012-09-20 17:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO still looks a bit sluggish
2012-09-20 17:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too surprising given that we're now challenging the August highs on the XLB breadth MCSUM
2012-09-20 17:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK continues to roll along
2012-09-20 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...
2012-09-20 17:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all this bearish sentiment coming from the Semi's
2012-09-20 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that this sector may have seen its better days and is about to evolve given the advent of tablets
2012-09-20 17:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM is now above the +500 level
2012-09-20 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears better be really careful here
2012-09-20 17:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or our expectation of both the financials and tech leading the market higher may turn into a reality
2012-09-20 17:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO is now testing its zero line
2012-09-20 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we can pretty much call the downside objective of prices of around the 36 level hitting the target this week
2012-09-20 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any strength here would give us another good opportunity to move back in here at "wholesale" pricing given the extremes in the XLU breadth MCSUM
2012-09-20 17:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could buy the XLU with a .10 stop below 36 now and that would be a reasonable trade
2012-09-20 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you don't have to go all in...
2012-09-20 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nibble here and there
2012-09-20 17:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pick you spots
2012-09-20 17:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-20 17:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good week for the bulls overall
2012-09-20 18:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they continue to show good digestion of last weeks gains
2012-09-20 18:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are now in a position to "light another fuse" for the next move higher in this advancing structure
2012-09-20 18:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could happen as soon as tomorrow
2012-09-20 18:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one would think that with all of the quadruple witching we might have to wait until early next week
2012-09-20 18:01:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, if KBH did it, I wouldn't mind :D
2012-09-20 18:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-09-20 18:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good skill on that one
2012-09-20 18:01:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-09-20 18:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what month?
2012-09-20 18:01:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: October
2012-09-20 18:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the money?
2012-09-20 18:02:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no
2012-09-20 18:02:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 14's
2012-09-20 18:02:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cheapskate, LOL
2012-09-20 18:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2012-09-20 18:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the longer term pattern
2012-09-20 18:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern is certainly basing here
2012-09-20 18:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's probably good for a continuation to the upper end of the range
2012-09-20 18:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which looks like 15
2012-09-20 18:03:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think I'll see 16 by Oct, my calls were .5
2012-09-20 18:03:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 15 OK too, though
2012-09-20 18:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...STVO's are relieving their "overbought" condition
2012-09-20 18:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tomorrow might give us a lot of down volume on expiration
2012-09-20 18:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would do it
2012-09-20 18:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are pretty much treading water here
2012-09-20 18:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN At 1.13
2012-09-20 18:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2012-09-20 18:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we need a little more selling pressure...so watch the U/D tomorrow
2012-09-20 18:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we can get a nice high TRIN number and then we'll be good to go next week
2012-09-20 18:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .79
2012-09-20 18:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2012-09-20 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .91
2012-09-20 18:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2012-09-20 18:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-09-20 18:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (yawn)
2012-09-20 18:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't expect too much fireworks tomorrow
2012-09-20 18:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you never really know do you?
2012-09-20 18:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2012-09-20 18:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would like to see a bit more selling
2012-09-20 18:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't expect that this same down volume is going to make much of a dent in moving below today's intraday lows
2012-09-20 18:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what futures are doing
2012-09-20 18:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow up 22
2012-09-20 18:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see
2012-09-20 18:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: internally
2012-09-20 18:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see some stability
2012-09-20 18:08:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: today's SPX candle looked friendly, and the bottom was on one of my trend lines
2012-09-20 18:08:25 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: gold popped up back over 1770 too
2012-09-20 18:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapback complete as well
2012-09-20 18:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at gold
2012-09-20 18:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's another stair stepper
2012-09-20 18:09:11 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: looks just like ndx last week or so
2012-09-20 18:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the structure looks good
2012-09-20 18:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2012-09-20 18:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is pulsing here
2012-09-20 18:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what many refer to these days as "impulsing"
2012-09-20 18:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can actually the rhythm of this same pulse in the trending structure
2012-09-20 18:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at gold
2012-09-20 18:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a move higher
2012-09-20 18:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then 2-4 days of rest then higher again
2012-09-20 18:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this rhythm continues
2012-09-20 18:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "TREND" is up
2012-09-20 18:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these pauses are there to keep the majority from realizing this same trend
2012-09-20 18:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get to Ford so we can close
2012-09-20 18:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news and bad news there
2012-09-20 18:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want a daily read Steve?
2012-09-20 18:11:57 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: nope - looking weekly; probably nov
2012-09-20 18:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2012-09-20 18:12:09 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: looks a lot like trvl before it broke up
2012-09-20 18:12:13 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: at least to me
2012-09-20 18:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's mixed
2012-09-20 18:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the daily
2012-09-20 18:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have good volume confirmation of the up days
2012-09-20 18:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you also have this same trend as being well over extended based on the 8 and 13 period ADX
2012-09-20 18:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the problem with that is...
2012-09-20 18:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look where prices are in connection with its EMA's
2012-09-20 18:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much resistance here
2012-09-20 18:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will need to regroup to breakout
2012-09-20 18:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if you get the price pattern to pop its head above the 200 day EMA for a day
2012-09-20 18:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is options?
2012-09-20 18:14:44 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: yeah - looking at the nov 11's for a 12.5 price
2012-09-20 18:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's better fish to fry with less effort
2012-09-20 18:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you get the pop...say thank you
2012-09-20 18:15:22 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: sure will
2012-09-20 18:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not likely to get above resistance until...maybe...November
2012-09-20 18:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make it easy on yourself
2012-09-20 18:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try this
2012-09-20 18:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have DP
2012-09-20 18:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: use it
2012-09-20 18:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go to the "chart books" section
2012-09-20 18:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find the strongest sector
2012-09-20 18:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and buy calls on the leader
2012-09-20 18:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then go out with your family and have some fun!
2012-09-20 18:17:01 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: lol
2012-09-20 18:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: options..unless your timing is very right, are a curse
2012-09-20 18:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what I would do though?
2012-09-20 18:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you own the stock?
2012-09-20 18:17:52 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: sell covered calls.
2012-09-20 18:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you did...
2012-09-20 18:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go :)
2012-09-20 18:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let someone else take the risk
2012-09-20 18:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you take the premium
2012-09-20 18:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you're wrong
2012-09-20 18:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what?
2012-09-20 18:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in solid trends like this one
2012-09-20 18:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: selling covered calls are easy money
2012-09-20 18:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if there's a dividend!
2012-09-20 18:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-09-20 18:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I really have to scoot
2012-09-20 18:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-09-20 18:19:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2012-09-20 18:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll get together on WEDNESDAY of next week
2012-09-20 18:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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