All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,899
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-09-20 15:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-09-20 16:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-09-20 16:01:04 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Fine Dave hope you are well
2011-09-20 16:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fine...thanks
2011-09-20 16:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-09-20 16:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me get DP up and we'll see how things are going
2011-09-20 16:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2011-09-20 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after stalling out on Friday
2011-09-20 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now obliged us with a technical snapback to its zero line
2011-09-20 16:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have near term balance between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2011-09-20 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was suspected last week
2011-09-20 16:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't have enough energy internally to move above the previous high points in the price pattern
2011-09-20 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're back to being in a congested pattern of sorts
2011-09-20 16:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO MCO breadth components are both back below their zero line
2011-09-20 16:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would again indicate that we continue to be in corrective activity
2011-09-20 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the start of any trend...either up or this time
2011-09-20 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2011-09-20 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that its starting to stall just under the -500 level
2011-09-20 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we had an inverted ledge (of sorts) prior to this latest run up into September expiration's
2011-09-20 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are probably running on fumes now
2011-09-20 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the bears will again try to take the initiative of moving lower by the end of the week
2011-09-20 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation here with the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-09-20 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it also snapping back to its zero line
2011-09-20 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the RA NYSE breadth MCSUM is starting to stall just above the -250 level
2011-09-20 16:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we move back one page to the traditional NYSE data
2011-09-20 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the CO MCSUM, we see that we are also stalling out just under the -500 level as well
2011-09-20 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the NYSE data is pretty much in sync
2011-09-20 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no matter how we break from here
2011-09-20 16:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see several days of trending action once we start to decompress
2011-09-20 16:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also note that we are now within the projected window of when we should start to see evidence of a tradable bottom per what the MCSUM shared with us back in early August
2011-09-20 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO is also at its zero line
2011-09-20 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO components reflecting the same kind of corrective activity relationship that the NYSE data is showing
2011-09-20 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems that we're pretty much evened up going into tomorrow's FED statement
2011-09-20 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the MCSUM's so far
2011-09-20 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of large separation posts to the upside suggest that the bears continue to have control here
2011-09-20 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO found it hard to move above recent highs this week
2011-09-20 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains positive overall
2011-09-20 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-09-20 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-09-20 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that its now within 34 points to meeting the objective of reaching its zero line where there is intermediate term balance between buyers and sellers
2011-09-20 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would seem that we're very close to some sort of power move from one side or the other
2011-09-20 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which this power move will allow the price pattern to move out of its consolidation zone
2011-09-20 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much with the NDX price chart
2011-09-20 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with others like the NASDAQ composite and the NYA
2011-09-20 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the NASDAQ for a moment
2011-09-20 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be noted that we found resistance today as we tested the old lows of the prior consolidation
2011-09-20 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that technical objective has been met there of a simple snapback
2011-09-20 16:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO stalled out near the +100 level
2011-09-20 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as it was noted last Thursday
2011-09-20 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was enough energy for the price pattern to once again challenge the 1218 level
2011-09-20 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't enough at that time to move above it
2011-09-20 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, since that time, this same level has served as a solid ceiling to the price pattern intraday
2011-09-20 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we finally sold off into the close because of it
2011-09-20 16:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the SPX breadth MCO and its components remain above their zero line
2011-09-20 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the broader index of the NYA and the COMPQ are at their zero lines
2011-09-20 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that, at least initially, we should see another rally attempt by the bulls near term
2011-09-20 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would allow for a normal bounce off this same MCO zero line
2011-09-20 16:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if this rally doesn't take hold by the end of the day
2011-09-20 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that may be all the bulls will have...and we may be looking at a good entry point for a short term short
2011-09-20 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but over all
2011-09-20 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bigger picture wise
2011-09-20 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX remains in a trading range
2011-09-20 16:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 1120 as the floor, and 1220 as the ceiling
2011-09-20 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see a decisive break beyond these levels
2011-09-20 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're just stuck chopping around
2011-09-20 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for more clarity
2011-09-20 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder how many folks were surprised that the market rallied today on the Italy downgrade?
2011-09-20 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a great example where knowing the fundamentals doesn't always make you money
2011-09-20 16:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing the technical condition, or tone, of the market does
2011-09-20 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the SPX breadth MCSUM is now approaching its -250 level
2011-09-20 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a natural point of resistance
2011-09-20 16:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we plow through or will we stall out??
2011-09-20 16:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO closed today near the +50 level
2011-09-20 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see an attempt to bounce off this number near term
2011-09-20 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM now within 135 data points of fully snapping back to its zero line
2011-09-20 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the Dow breadth MCO
2011-09-20 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a lot of indecisive behavior there
2011-09-20 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2011-09-20 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the MID breadth MCSUM is stalling out just below its -500 level
2011-09-20 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2011-09-20 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the short term rising bottoms line on the MID price chart comes in at around the 850 level
2011-09-20 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's our break point
2011-09-20 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we can take out the recent lows seen earlier this month in the MID breadth MCO
2011-09-20 16:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a carbon copy of the MID with the SML McClellan data
2011-09-20 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the rising bottoms line there coming in at 370
2011-09-20 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...a snapback to the zero line of the TM breadth MCO as well
2011-09-20 16:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-20 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are again
2011-09-20 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for something to give
2011-09-20 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now moved sideways for 6 weeks
2011-09-20 16:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that the market generally stays on one side or the other of the MCO zero line for this same amount of time
2011-09-20 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes the probability of the bulls pulling something together here a fairly low number
2011-09-20 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words...the bulls are just about out of time to do something that would create a new trend higher
2011-09-20 16:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since they have had problems negotiating above the 1220 level in recent days
2011-09-20 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that we're on the threshold of at least a move back down to test the lower area of the range at 1120
2011-09-20 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we get there will determine if this will become our final wash out so that a new advance can then begin
2011-09-20 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about
2011-09-20 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ideal time for a price bottom continues to be around the second week of October
2011-09-20 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll let the market fine tune that as we move along
2011-09-20 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now since some of the price patterns are starting to take on the appearance of a head and shoulders pattern
2011-09-20 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look to see if the volume component is consistent to this idea or moment
2011-09-20 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...volume is not consistent
2011-09-20 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we just have a consolidation working here
2011-09-20 16:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will give us a slightly different downside objective on a break
2011-09-20 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-09-20 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SPX
2011-09-20 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of the 1120 cash area would give us a downside objective of 1020
2011-09-20 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is only if we break 1120 by the end of the week
2011-09-20 16:40:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: do you feel that the SOB is negated?
2011-09-20 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it extends beyond that
2011-09-20 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the objective will be lower
2011-09-20 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SOB is certainly in play as well but a bit on the sloppy side now
2011-09-20 16:40:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-09-20 16:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside there would be...
2011-09-20 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2011-09-20 16:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually equal distance of the first stick lower
2011-09-20 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that would suggest a move of around 200 spx points
2011-09-20 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't see that happening
2011-09-20 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there's just too much liquidity here to absorb another panic
2011-09-20 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Italy today
2011-09-20 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that happened in
2011-09-20 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have better buoyancy here as per the NDX and COMPX moving to higher highs in the last week
2011-09-20 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have many angles suggesting a bottom around the 980-1050 area
2011-09-20 16:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem now though
2011-09-20 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't get any real downsides here until the consolidation ends
2011-09-20 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're certainly closer than we were two weeks ago of some sort of resolution
2011-09-20 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls don't have enough to move above 1220 yet
2011-09-20 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the "over the top" bears have been slaughtered
2011-09-20 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a new trend can now get under way
2011-09-20 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with a 100 point range...we still must play hit and run (which isn't such a bad thing)
2011-09-20 16:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know
2011-09-20 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were getting very close to being "overbought" on both the NASDAQ and TM Open 10's last week
2011-09-20 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the NYSE Open 10 joins in
2011-09-20 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's about as good as it gets for a solid entry (we can only wish)
2011-09-20 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if there's anything going on with sector breadth data
2011-09-20 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM is just shy of its zero line now
2011-09-20 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLP breadth MCSUM is enjoying its second day above its zero line
2011-09-20 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls have good (not great) control there
2011-09-20 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we're not surprised at given the defensive nature of this group
2011-09-20 16:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM is finding stiff resistance at its -250 level
2011-09-20 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF data is in limbo here
2011-09-20 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the short term looking mixed
2011-09-20 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the intermediate term looking sluggish
2011-09-20 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see the XLF breadth MCSUM get above the -500 level
2011-09-20 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action is going to continue to be sloppy for the bulls
2011-09-20 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM is now just under its zero line
2011-09-20 16:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a good place to be if you're a bull
2011-09-20 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some MCSUM's showing resistance at the -500 and -250 levels
2011-09-20 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the rest just meeting their zero lines
2011-09-20 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of this has taken place over a 4-6 week period?
2011-09-20 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time for a rest it would seem
2011-09-20 16:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM is also stalling at the -250 level
2011-09-20 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB at the -500 level
2011-09-20 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK is now within striking distance of its -250 level
2011-09-20 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCSUM is at its zero line
2011-09-20 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-20 16:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem no matter what the news is tomorrow
2011-09-20 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after it's digested
2011-09-20 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see the markets start to traverse lower to at least challenge their bases
2011-09-20 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we get there will be important as to whether this time will finally be the time for our capitulation phase to get started
2011-09-20 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a back ground here
2011-09-20 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that the Greece situation is going to come to a head by the 30th
2011-09-20 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it doesn't seem that there's going to be a happy resolution there
2011-09-20 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind
2011-09-20 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that no matter what happens there
2011-09-20 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to figure that the market has already discounted this default with its early August decline
2011-09-20 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the after shocks travel is probably what the markets are going to work with
2011-09-20 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's probably not going to be a pretty picture over the next 2-3 weeks
2011-09-20 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just so happens to fit with our anticipated bottom
2011-09-20 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2011-09-20 16:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2011-09-20 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both NYSE related volume MCO's are still a little bit above their zero lines right now
2011-09-20 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that although the last couple days of selling has been wide spread, it hasn't been heavily concentrated either
2011-09-20 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like "evening up positions" before the next batch of news
2011-09-20 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do note that the NYSE volume MCSUM is now at its -500 level
2011-09-20 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could be a good place for a rest
2011-09-20 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's
2011-09-20 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how important this information is as it directly relates to where prices can be pushed to
2011-09-20 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without these same higher highs in the volume MCO's
2011-09-20 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price patterns themselves would have stalled out just like the NYA has over the last couple of days
2011-09-20 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can't be done by one stock alone (referring to AAPL)
2011-09-20 17:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we're measuring more than just one issue with both of these broader indicators
2011-09-20 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the NASDAQ and NDX volume MCO's
2011-09-20 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have enough texture in place for a tradable rally to begin
2011-09-20 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given how the primaries are right now, however, it would seem that we should see more buoyancy here with the secondaries on any softness that may come in here over the next week or so
2011-09-20 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will be our additional evidence that we are, in fact, creating a bottom
2011-09-20 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to what everyone else will be saying during any upcoming panic phase that might accompany this same forecast
2011-09-20 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all hypothetical at this stage
2011-09-20 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's something that we'll watch for to increase our odds of success
2011-09-20 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX, OEX and Dow volume MCO's
2011-09-20 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they also look to be holding up nicely here
2011-09-20 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that much of the money moving right now is bidding prices higher
2011-09-20 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while that's nice to see if you're looking for a bottom
2011-09-20 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be better if the broader market was doing this than just those of what many would call "blue chips"
2011-09-20 17:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that still a saying these days? 
2011-09-20 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't hear that reference any more
2011-09-20 17:05:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2011-09-20 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least not much more
2011-09-20 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID volume MCO
2011-09-20 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we've snapped back to the zero line
2011-09-20 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with potential resistance again at the MID volume MCSUM -500 level
2011-09-20 17:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing how the MCSUM gravitates to these 250 increments, isn't it?
2011-09-20 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback as well with the SML volume MCO
2011-09-20 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control there
2011-09-20 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM is near its -250 level
2011-09-20 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-09-20 17:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we see a new burst of energy by the bulls by Thursday
2011-09-20 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it now looks like we're about to move lower within the trading range of the last couple of months
2011-09-20 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be part of our long awaited tradable bottom
2011-09-20 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where our patience should be rewarded
2011-09-20 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less our discipline
2011-09-20 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2011-09-20 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are basically neutral
2011-09-20 17:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now "overbought" across the board
2011-09-20 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's look tired
2011-09-20 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow at its zero line
2011-09-20 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX is close to being "overbought"
2011-09-20 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX and SPX somewhere in between
2011-09-20 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could allow another day or two of higher highs
2011-09-20 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the strength of trend
2011-09-20 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as measured by the MCSUM's
2011-09-20 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggests otherwise
2011-09-20 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .99
2011-09-20 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2011-09-20 17:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at its highest level since..January
2011-09-20 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the longer term chart
2011-09-20 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the other times in which the NYSE Open 10 moved only to neutral and what happened with prices shortly thereafter
2011-09-20 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .94
2011-09-20 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still "overbought" at .78
2011-09-20 17:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 21 day sma of the TRINQ is also "overbought"
2011-09-20 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.08
2011-09-20 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .83
2011-09-20 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near "overbought"...not quite there
2011-09-20 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the NYSE Open 10
2011-09-20 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now at the highest level since January
2011-09-20 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we add this information into the equation
2011-09-20 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we are - maybe - a day or so away from an important top
2011-09-20 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the bulls must once again pick up the pace like they did early last week
2011-09-20 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they're going to lose any chance of turning this consolidation into a trending sequence higher
2011-09-20 17:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the time used already, however, the odds suggest that this is not likely to happen
2011-09-20 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so QE3 or no QE3 - either way - it's not likely to be the cure needed near term
2011-09-20 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the stories will reflect that
2011-09-20 17:19:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great to merchandise folks into buying a short term top, possibly, though, LOL
2011-09-20 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2011-09-20 17:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it provides a rather simple trading plan here
2011-09-20 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know that the market is having resistance (price) problems
2011-09-20 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know its running out of time
2011-09-20 17:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market remains in control of the bears on an intermediate term basis
2011-09-20 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that those who were hoping for a continuation of the crash in August are now that much poorer
2011-09-20 17:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as are the bulls who had dreams of a V bottom
2011-09-20 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the majority then have been relieved of their cash
2011-09-20 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and their patience
2011-09-20 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day it matters what's going on in Europe
2011-09-20 17:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the next day it doesn't
2011-09-20 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have a threat of a government shut down by the Senate majority leader
2011-09-20 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's be reminded
2011-09-20 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we should fully expect the news to accompany any tradable bottom from here to be DIRE
2011-09-20 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be most difficult to buy when your emotion is telling you not to
2011-09-20 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you're brain should win out here
2011-09-20 17:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-09-20 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the plan is simple
2011-09-20 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we watch what happens tomorrow
2011-09-20 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for the FED to bring their words of wisdom down from the mountain top
2011-09-20 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to look for a short entry
2011-09-20 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a stop just above the highs of the respective consolidation pattern
2011-09-20 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ONLY IF
2011-09-20 17:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market is suggesting to do so
2011-09-20 17:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today
2011-09-20 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was up some 150 Dow points at one point
2011-09-20 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NYAD line was slightly positive
2011-09-20 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe 500 advancing issues over decliners at the top
2011-09-20 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even 2:1
2011-09-20 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty easy trade in the last 2 hours once we had EMA breakdowns on the 5 minute chart
2011-09-20 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so remain focused here
2011-09-20 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should have a pretty good trade coming soon
2011-09-20 17:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls decide they want to make a statement
2011-09-20 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our upside objectives are close enough now that this will present an even better point to look for a short entry
2011-09-20 17:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just be patient
2011-09-20 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and try not to lead off
2011-09-20 17:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-09-20 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if you move short at SPX 1190
2011-09-20 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you still have the target of 70 points to work with
2011-09-20 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to get on the train in Las Vegas and get off in Philadelphia if the train total trip is from LA to NY
2011-09-20 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just want the meat of the move
2011-09-20 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no sense in getting greedy
2011-09-20 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for your set up...and nice and easy
2011-09-20 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-09-20 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line here
2011-09-20 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look for a bounce higher on Wednesday
2011-09-20 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we start fine tuning the trade
2011-09-20 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: none of this "all in" stuff either
2011-09-20 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slow and sure
2011-09-20 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I'm kinda of looking for is...
2011-09-20 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a larger crowd of the "message board bears" to throw in the towel and start getting cocky of a tradable low
2011-09-20 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great time to just sit back and allow sentiment to help in our positioning
2011-09-20 17:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anybody seeing anything different here?
2011-09-20 17:34:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not I
2011-09-20 17:35:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just contemplating which stock in the XLV will look the weakest to me tonite
2011-09-20 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Value Line?
2011-09-20 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2011-09-20 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2011-09-20 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-09-20 17:35:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-09-20 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm tired
2011-09-20 17:36:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2011-09-20 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2011-09-20 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would kind of stay away from tech given the strength of the NDX, no less, the defensive sectors
2011-09-20 17:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there are far better areas to concentrate on
2011-09-20 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2011-09-20 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the back bone of this entire decline/advance/decline from the 2008 top has been the banks
2011-09-20 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ripple effect of a default from a country would probably put a great deal of pressure on the globals like JPM, C, BAC
2011-09-20 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BAC looks like its ready to just give it up
2011-09-20 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back below 7
2011-09-20 17:38:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: already have BAC puts, uh oh
2011-09-20 17:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: October 5's?
2011-09-20 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was just looking at DP's chart list for the financials
2011-09-20 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weakest ones right now are...
2011-09-20 17:40:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 8's, LOL
2011-09-20 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: JEF
2011-09-20 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2011-09-20 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MS
2011-09-20 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PJC
2011-09-20 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's two brokers there
2011-09-20 17:41:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ya think I should have 5's?
2011-09-20 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2011-09-20 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think you should in the money
2011-09-20 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a good play
2011-09-20 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would play the 10's
2011-09-20 17:41:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bummer-that's what I thought
2011-09-20 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are others out there that you should look at
2011-09-20 17:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-09-20 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GS is in the lower 10 percentile here
2011-09-20 17:42:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the 8's had very little premium when I got them-so it was ok
2011-09-20 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is Citigroup
2011-09-20 17:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better yet
2011-09-20 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go to the main menu at DP
2011-09-20 17:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go to the "chart books" area
2011-09-20 17:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then look down the list for IYF
2011-09-20 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then look at the last two pages
2011-09-20 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those are the weakest stocks in a pretty weak sector
2011-09-20 17:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in an overall hostile market
2011-09-20 17:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems I also have some homework to do tonight
2011-09-20 17:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-09-20 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-09-20 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-09-20 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-09-20 17:44:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx!
2011-09-20 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hook up again on Thursday
2011-09-20 17:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-09-20 17:45:09 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch