All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,437
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-18 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-18 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-18 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-09-18 16:02:19 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-18 16:02:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Am I reading right since Tuesday Trin signals
2014-09-18 16:03:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: there have been 3 more
2014-09-18 16:03:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: End of day yesterday , at the open today and last one end of day today
2014-09-18 16:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TRIN?
2014-09-18 16:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm confused (which is something that happens a lot) [smile]
2014-09-18 16:05:59 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes the $TRIN
2014-09-18 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there have been "3 more" what? Michael
2014-09-18 16:08:11 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sorry should have mentioned the bear covering with no
2014-09-18 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering?
2014-09-18 16:08:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes short covering
2014-09-18 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2014-09-18 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN's "magic" works best on a daily basis
2014-09-18 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to determine if short covering is actually taking the market higher
2014-09-18 16:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would have to look at the cumulative TICK on a intraday basis
2014-09-18 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-09-18 16:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the flow of money was moving lower
2014-09-18 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices were moving higher
2014-09-18 16:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that would be short covering as there wasn't any fresh fuel to move prices higher
2014-09-18 16:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been quite busy today and really haven't looked at anything
2014-09-18 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so give me a moment so I can see today's data
2014-09-18 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and James...did you get the chart up?
2014-09-18 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just checked Stock charts
2014-09-18 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of the today's intraday price data was lost
2014-09-18 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I can reconcile
2014-09-18 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to answer your question...yes...there was short covering at the open
2014-09-18 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that ended at about 10:00 eastern
2014-09-18 16:13:22 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yes, thank you for your help
2014-09-18 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the TRIN on an intraday basis can be helpful, but only if you use it with the cumulative TICK
2014-09-18 16:13:48 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK that's what I thought this 5 minute chart is something I don't follow at all.  But will now
2014-09-18 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-09-18 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a small move to the downside on Wednesday
2014-09-18 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved higher today
2014-09-18 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and broke above its declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern
2014-09-18 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is step 1 on the bulls recovery
2014-09-18 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: step 2 remains above us
2014-09-18 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the reflex high we saw last week as this MCO attempted to snapback to its zero line
2014-09-18 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above that
2014-09-18 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have another declining tops line to work with
2014-09-18 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which connects the highs of mid August
2014-09-18 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that intersects somewhere in between last weeks highs and the MCO zero line
2014-09-18 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's still some work still yet to do for the bulls to take back control of the action at this stage
2014-09-18 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the initial data from over in Scotland is that the referendum has failed
2014-09-18 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that may provide some additional relief in the morning if this is true
2014-09-18 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move was able to push the 5% Trend back above its zero line
2014-09-18 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds are slightly tilted now in the buyers favor that we will see upside follow through in the morning
2014-09-18 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also be aware that September futures went off the grid at the close today
2014-09-18 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so volume should be very heavy at the open tomorrow
2014-09-18 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as September contracts tend to be heavily traded
2014-09-18 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we not only took out the accelerated declining tops line
2014-09-18 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also took out last week's high point as well
2014-09-18 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a good sign for the buyers
2014-09-18 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the interest rate sensitive issues are now starting to lead to the upside
2014-09-18 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this break of last week's highs in the MCO
2014-09-18 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now clears the way for a full zero line retracement
2014-09-18 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here
2014-09-18 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the longer term declining tops line from the August highs intersects at about the +20 level
2014-09-18 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further movement to the upside in this expected zero line snapback in the MCO should find resistance at this same +20 level
2014-09-18 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and let's certainly not forget about our "blip resistance" point at just above the MCO zero line
2014-09-18 16:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as any move above this level secures a price bottom
2014-09-18 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, so good...
2014-09-18 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll still need to see more analytical evidence before we can call an "all clear"
2014-09-18 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has now met its technical expectation of a zero line snapback
2014-09-18 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming in today with a -4 reading
2014-09-18 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-09-18 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain in a bearish crossover configuration below their zero line
2014-09-18 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so still not out of the woods there either
2014-09-18 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the construction process of building a foundational low looks as though has gotten started
2014-09-18 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new historic recovery highs on the NDX today
2014-09-18 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NDX breadth MCO moved up and through both its zero line and last week's snapback highs
2014-09-18 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that's needed now for prices to trend to higher highs is for this MCO to settle above the early September high point
2014-09-18 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's a good chance this is going to happen near term
2014-09-18 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for when we look at the NDX MCO components
2014-09-18 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have generated a new crossover buy signal today to go along with the MCO impressive performance
2014-09-18 16:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Q's still the place to be to play out this consolidation
2014-09-18 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the SPX today
2014-09-18 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got confirmation of this higher price high with the SPX breadth MCO moving above both its zero line and last week's high point
2014-09-18 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to stay at new highs though
2014-09-18 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to take out the highs of early September
2014-09-18 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though, here too, we generated a crossover buy signal today on the SPX components
2014-09-18 16:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once gain, we should never under estimate the underlying technical strength of this marketplace
2014-09-18 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh boy
2014-09-18 16:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the OEX go!
2014-09-18 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: solid buy signal there
2014-09-18 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with new all time price highs in the OEX
2014-09-18 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the underlying strength to support it on both a short term and intermediate term basis
2014-09-18 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the great things about the MCSUM
2014-09-18 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you can take a cursory view of the chart
2014-09-18 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can actually see how much money is either moving in or out
2014-09-18 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all dependent on how far the separation of the individual postings are
2014-09-18 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as you can see there was a ton of money that came in today
2014-09-18 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as today's post had a wide expansion to it
2014-09-18 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2014-09-18 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top 100 stocks for both exchanges seem to leading the way
2014-09-18 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good news on a short term basis
2014-09-18 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but could be problematic on a intermediate term basis as it's far better to see those issues who are more related to growth leading those issues that can be described as having value
2014-09-18 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the Dow as well
2014-09-18 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to match yesterday's all time high in the Dow Transports
2014-09-18 16:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a continuation Dow Theory signal
2014-09-18 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCO confirmed the new all time highs today
2014-09-18 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2014-09-18 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also moved high enough now to where prices are able to STAY at these new highs
2014-09-18 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy signal as well in the Dow MCO components
2014-09-18 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll likely see the Dow breadth MCSUM join the party to new highs as soon as tomorrow
2014-09-18 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the MID data
2014-09-18 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it remains below its zero line
2014-09-18 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did see a break above the declining tops line today
2014-09-18 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this basket of issues might be a day behind
2014-09-18 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially given the strength we saw in the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the cost of money is likely to pull back a bit
2014-09-18 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...better strength today in the SML
2014-09-18 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now snapped back to the SML breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also inched out a crossover buy signal in the SML breadth MCO components
2014-09-18 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of this gives us a full stop to the declining direction of the SML breadth MCSUM right at it's zero line
2014-09-18 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "like magic"
2014-09-18 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on a total market basis
2014-09-18 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the TM breadth MCO broke above its declining tops line today
2014-09-18 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it still has a bit more work to do in taking out both last week's high point and its zero line
2014-09-18 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...our small blip resistance area seen just above this same zero line
2014-09-18 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-18 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals are now looking more constructive
2014-09-18 16:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but much of the strength so far is moving into the cream stocks that make up the NYSE
2014-09-18 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-09-18 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now take our defensive posture off the table
2014-09-18 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must continue to vigilant and look for better broad based market participation by the MID, SML and COMPX
2014-09-18 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...might be all tied to tomorrow's OPEX
2014-09-18 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2014-09-18 16:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the major futures contracts seem to be
2014-09-18 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ND, ES and the Dow
2014-09-18 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as these contracts have now expired
2014-09-18 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the sectors
2014-09-18 16:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete on the XLY breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though both of the XLY components are back above their zero line
2014-09-18 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they still haven't crossed over as yet
2014-09-18 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buyers are close here in taking back control
2014-09-18 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they'll need their friends to belly up to the bar a bit to help them move over the top
2014-09-18 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...our timing for the beginning of next week as a tradable low is looking pretty good
2014-09-18 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving above the previous week's highs and the zero line
2014-09-18 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO has not moved above the important early September highs as yet
2014-09-18 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is needed for prices to move to new highs and STAY there
2014-09-18 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action
2014-09-18 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how this all works together
2014-09-18 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we saw new highs with Tuesday's higher high
2014-09-18 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices could not stay there on Wednesday
2014-09-18 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed today below Tuesday's close
2014-09-18 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a good example of how this all "works together" in what is needed for prices to continue to move in one direction or the other (in this case, higher)
2014-09-18 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...what you will also notice when you look at the XLP breadth MCSUM
2014-09-18 16:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that its pattern is right now at the highs of early July
2014-09-18 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for this challenge to be successful
2014-09-18 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there MUST be enough energy to actually break above this ceiling of resistance
2014-09-18 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way that can happen is...
2014-09-18 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-09-18 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO must move above its early September highs to do so
2014-09-18 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "all for one, one for all"
2014-09-18 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any lack of follow through then by the buyers
2014-09-18 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM challenge will fail
2014-09-18 17:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a double top structure will be left behind to either regroup or to fall away from
2014-09-18 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since prices in the XLP are now higher than the previous highs over the summer
2014-09-18 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any failure here to move above these same MCSUM highs is likely to be a longer term sell signal for this basket of stocks
2014-09-18 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a important, almost KEY, juncture for the staples
2014-09-18 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete on the XLE breadth MCO
2014-09-18 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it plows to the downside
2014-09-18 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provided the energy for the XLE breadth MCSUM to break below its zero line and previous MCSUM horizontal support
2014-09-18 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should now clear the way to prices in the XLE to continue lower
2014-09-18 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the recommendation if one were to use the .10 stop above Tuesday's highs
2014-09-18 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to switch to the Parabolic SAR for your sliding stop as prices are likely to make lower lows
2014-09-18 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-09-18 17:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $92.50 should provide at least temporary support
2014-09-18 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the downside target?
2014-09-18 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I forget
2014-09-18 17:06:42 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: i think between 92 and 92.50
2014-09-18 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wasn't it first 92.50?
2014-09-18 17:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...thought so
2014-09-18 17:06:50 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-18 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any lower low in the XLE breadth MCO allowing prices to move to around $90 (?)
2014-09-18 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $89.50 I think it was
2014-09-18 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2014-09-18 17:07:44 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: yep
2014-09-18 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still the weakest sector
2014-09-18 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good skill on your trades
2014-09-18 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing breakout strength in the XLF to the upside
2014-09-18 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we were able to move above the blip resistance point on the XLE breadth MCO today
2014-09-18 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also above the declining tops line
2014-09-18 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...usually
2014-09-18 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I stress the word usually
2014-09-18 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials tend to rally based on the amount of return that they can get on their lending
2014-09-18 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the XLF is rising here
2014-09-18 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that interest rates are likely to remain stable now...if not begin to again move higher
2014-09-18 17:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: following 30 year mortgages
2014-09-18 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I got a 1/8 point tick higher today across the board
2014-09-18 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside...these institutions are quick to raise rates...but were slow in lowering them over the last month
2014-09-18 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 30 year rates, with zero points, moved from 4.5% to 4.625% today
2014-09-18 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was also looking at the yield curve today
2014-09-18 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and T-Bills remain near zero
2014-09-18 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 2-5 year notes have been rising nicely for the better part of the year
2014-09-18 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything from 7 years on have been moving sideways with a bullish bias (higher rates)
2014-09-18 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now much of this is on the anticipation of the FED finishing up their buy backs by the 2nd quarter of next year (as they promised back 2012)
2014-09-18 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch how things go from here and to remind ourselves that if there is any debt you wish to incur on a project or purchase, this is probably the best time to get things into motion
2014-09-18 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price highs in the XLV today
2014-09-18 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though the XLV breadth MCO is back above its zero line
2014-09-18 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it hasn't moved above its reaction high point at this juncture
2014-09-18 17:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-09-18 17:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above the declining tops line that's controlling the pattern
2014-09-18 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those who are in this ETF need to be somewhat careful and prepare for a probable ambush by the sellers UNLESS we begin to see better money flow characteristics that would justify these same new price highs
2014-09-18 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...this could be a old fashioned blow off
2014-09-18 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we begin phase 2 of ACA
2014-09-18 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where small businesses have to participate
2014-09-18 17:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO moved above resistance today
2014-09-18 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be enough for prices to not only challenge their all time highs
2014-09-18 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also move above them
2014-09-18 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-09-18 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must also acknowledge that the XLI is not really confirming the all time closing highs we have in the Dow Industrials and Transports
2014-09-18 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a bit uncomfortable given the close relationship between these two Dow indices and the XLI itself
2014-09-18 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another little problem near term is that
2014-09-18 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we see the XLI breadth MCO above its early September highs
2014-09-18 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the case with the components
2014-09-18 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a bit of internal divergence going on here
2014-09-18 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that unless is taken care of quickly
2014-09-18 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can lead to a sudden retracement in prices to fill this breadth dynamic vacuum
2014-09-18 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB closed at new all time price highs today
2014-09-18 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's absolutely no confirmation by either the XLB breadth MCO or MCSUM on these highs
2014-09-18 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be another good set up for the shorts
2014-09-18 17:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the weakness we're seeing in the metals
2014-09-18 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2014-09-18 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how gold and silver closed
2014-09-18 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you serious?
2014-09-18 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold closed up?
2014-09-18 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2014-09-18 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a Hammer Stick to boot
2014-09-18 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a high volume reversal
2014-09-18 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver closed up too?
2014-09-18 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about clearing out the stops and then leaving the market participants behind!
2014-09-18 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to watch this now
2014-09-18 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we see divergences in the PM breadth data this weekend
2014-09-18 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though I'm still in the camp that says November/December for our next likely low
2014-09-18 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever the market wants to do...it's fine by me
2014-09-18 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe this is the beginning of a simple snapback to what was old support from the gold symmetrical triangle?
2014-09-18 17:27:47 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: gdxj outperforming gdx
2014-09-18 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if so..there's a $50 rally coming short term
2014-09-18 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very interesting
2014-09-18 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll see what the TSX Venture cumulative charts look like when I go and get the BETS prelim later
2014-09-18 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected
2014-09-18 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK moved to new recovery highs today
2014-09-18 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to be the leading sector for the NASDAQ
2014-09-18 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...for the market at large
2014-09-18 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got the SAR buy signal on that yesterday
2014-09-18 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLK breadth MCO is confirming the new highs
2014-09-18 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a crossover buy on the components
2014-09-18 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2014-09-18 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we are done with the consolidation here
2014-09-18 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we start our re-initiation to the upside
2014-09-18 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sectors like the XLE and XLB are likely to remain weak
2014-09-18 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they may not move as quickly as the shorts may want them to
2014-09-18 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just may churn
2014-09-18 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger trend always takes the lead on these kind of decisions
2014-09-18 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with many of the breadth MCSUM's still well above their zero lines
2014-09-18 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance does remain higher
2014-09-18 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's higher highs in the XLK also puts to rest any idea of the inverted symmetrical triangle
2014-09-18 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...there's still a slim chance
2014-09-18 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds of this turning into something more bearish has left the playing field
2014-09-18 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oooo
2014-09-18 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a surprising breakdown in the XLU breadth MCO today
2014-09-18 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though at this point
2014-09-18 17:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components suggest that this likely to be a consolidation
2014-09-18 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard one to call on the XLU is now
2014-09-18 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a choppy pattern short term
2014-09-18 17:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what this also tells us...
2014-09-18 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2014-09-18 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is moving out of defensive issues
2014-09-18 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moving into...oh...the XLF
2014-09-18 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the XLK
2014-09-18 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same two sectors in which we've been looking to lead this market higher since the November 2012 lows
2014-09-18 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the lower low in the XLU breadth MCO is surprising...at least to me
2014-09-18 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-18 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing indications that those sectors that have been leading the market higher are starting to breakout of their high level consolidation patterns to the upside
2014-09-18 17:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and getting money flow confirmation on a short term trending basis
2014-09-18 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength would secure our price lows for this same consolidation
2014-09-18 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the worse that may happen is a test of the recent September lows, but not a violation
2014-09-18 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have to do is move above the early September highs on the various MCO's and that will confirm that
2014-09-18 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we'll get that answer as soon as Friday
2014-09-18 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wouldn't be surprising to see this some time next week
2014-09-18 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are showing strong buying now
2014-09-18 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though they remain just below climactic levels
2014-09-18 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and NDX STVO's are neutral
2014-09-18 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX and Dow are echoing this strong buying pattern
2014-09-18 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are suggesting "hold it, not so fast" on the idea that the strong uptrend has been broken down
2014-09-18 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any additional strength there, in the next two trading sessions, would put back on a strong uptrend forecast
2014-09-18 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.13
2014-09-18 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now back to neutral at .92
2014-09-18 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good
2014-09-18 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .88
2014-09-18 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2014-09-18 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much neutral there as well
2014-09-18 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .93
2014-09-18 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .87
2014-09-18 17:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...one side can now take control
2014-09-18 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS
2014-09-18 17:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-09-18 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +25
2014-09-18 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bueno
2014-09-18 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSE Ventures data is falling apart
2014-09-18 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the precious metals are in trouble
2014-09-18 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the NYSE is the strongest area now
2014-09-18 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ has great volume data
2014-09-18 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TSX Venture Index has broken support now
2014-09-18 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-09-18 17:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we came close to another Zweig Breadth Thrust warning on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did not get the trigger
2014-09-18 17:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the 10 day SMA and 10 day EMA moved down to a 40 reading
2014-09-18 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both did not move below it
2014-09-18 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the positive side
2014-09-18 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having low readings like this do highly suggest that a very important price bottom is developing
2014-09-18 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...has developed
2014-09-18 17:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-09-18 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the breadth charts are suspect
2014-09-18 17:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's not get to bulled up here
2014-09-18 17:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2014-09-18 17:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having the OEX and Dow leading has had its historic failures for the market at large
2014-09-18 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better not to rush into things
2014-09-18 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to be sure
2014-09-18 17:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-18 17:52:47 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Nothing here and thanks for the great session
2014-09-18 17:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was like a roller coaster ride today [smile]
2014-09-18 17:53:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yep
2014-09-18 17:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looked good, then bad, then promising, then terrible
2014-09-18 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many mixed signals not make a trend make
2014-09-18 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday will clear things up..if not Monday
2014-09-18 17:55:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Still learning evert chat session
2014-09-18 17:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2014-09-18 17:55:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-18 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-09-18 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have another hours worth of work in front me
2014-09-18 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm going to slide out the side door
2014-09-18 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-09-18 17:56:03 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thx
2014-09-18 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-09-18 17:56:10 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thanks again
2014-09-18 17:56:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night All
2014-09-18 17:57:11 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch