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Posts: 4,868
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-18 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-18 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-18 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-09-18 16:02:19 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-18 16:02:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Am I reading right since Tuesday Trin signals
2014-09-18 16:03:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: there have been 3 more
2014-09-18 16:03:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: End of day yesterday , at the open today and last one end of day today
2014-09-18 16:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TRIN?
2014-09-18 16:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm confused (which is something that happens a lot) [smile]
2014-09-18 16:05:59 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes the $TRIN
2014-09-18 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there have been "3 more" what? Michael
2014-09-18 16:08:11 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sorry should have mentioned the bear covering with no
2014-09-18 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering?
2014-09-18 16:08:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes short covering
2014-09-18 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2014-09-18 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN's "magic" works best on a daily basis
2014-09-18 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to determine if short covering is actually taking the market higher
2014-09-18 16:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would have to look at the cumulative TICK on a intraday basis
2014-09-18 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-09-18 16:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the flow of money was moving lower
2014-09-18 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices were moving higher
2014-09-18 16:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that would be short covering as there wasn't any fresh fuel to move prices higher
2014-09-18 16:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been quite busy today and really haven't looked at anything
2014-09-18 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so give me a moment so I can see today's data
2014-09-18 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and James...did you get the chart up?
2014-09-18 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just checked Stock charts
2014-09-18 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of the today's intraday price data was lost
2014-09-18 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I can reconcile
2014-09-18 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to answer your question...yes...there was short covering at the open
2014-09-18 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that ended at about 10:00 eastern
2014-09-18 16:13:22 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yes, thank you for your help
2014-09-18 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the TRIN on an intraday basis can be helpful, but only if you use it with the cumulative TICK
2014-09-18 16:13:48 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK that's what I thought this 5 minute chart is something I don't follow at all.  But will now
2014-09-18 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-09-18 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a small move to the downside on Wednesday
2014-09-18 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved higher today
2014-09-18 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and broke above its declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern
2014-09-18 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is step 1 on the bulls recovery
2014-09-18 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: step 2 remains above us
2014-09-18 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the reflex high we saw last week as this MCO attempted to snapback to its zero line
2014-09-18 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above that
2014-09-18 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have another declining tops line to work with
2014-09-18 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which connects the highs of mid August
2014-09-18 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that intersects somewhere in between last weeks highs and the MCO zero line
2014-09-18 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's still some work still yet to do for the bulls to take back control of the action at this stage
2014-09-18 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the initial data from over in Scotland is that the referendum has failed
2014-09-18 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that may provide some additional relief in the morning if this is true
2014-09-18 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move was able to push the 5% Trend back above its zero line
2014-09-18 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds are slightly tilted now in the buyers favor that we will see upside follow through in the morning
2014-09-18 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also be aware that September futures went off the grid at the close today
2014-09-18 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so volume should be very heavy at the open tomorrow
2014-09-18 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as September contracts tend to be heavily traded
2014-09-18 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we not only took out the accelerated declining tops line
2014-09-18 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also took out last week's high point as well
2014-09-18 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is a good sign for the buyers
2014-09-18 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the interest rate sensitive issues are now starting to lead to the upside
2014-09-18 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this break of last week's highs in the MCO
2014-09-18 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now clears the way for a full zero line retracement
2014-09-18 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here
2014-09-18 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the longer term declining tops line from the August highs intersects at about the +20 level
2014-09-18 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further movement to the upside in this expected zero line snapback in the MCO should find resistance at this same +20 level
2014-09-18 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and let's certainly not forget about our "blip resistance" point at just above the MCO zero line
2014-09-18 16:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as any move above this level secures a price bottom
2014-09-18 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, so good...
2014-09-18 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll still need to see more analytical evidence before we can call an "all clear"
2014-09-18 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO has now met its technical expectation of a zero line snapback
2014-09-18 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming in today with a -4 reading
2014-09-18 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-09-18 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain in a bearish crossover configuration below their zero line
2014-09-18 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so still not out of the woods there either
2014-09-18 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the construction process of building a foundational low looks as though has gotten started
2014-09-18 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new historic recovery highs on the NDX today
2014-09-18 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NDX breadth MCO moved up and through both its zero line and last week's snapback highs
2014-09-18 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that's needed now for prices to trend to higher highs is for this MCO to settle above the early September high point
2014-09-18 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's a good chance this is going to happen near term
2014-09-18 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for when we look at the NDX MCO components
2014-09-18 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have generated a new crossover buy signal today to go along with the MCO impressive performance
2014-09-18 16:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Q's still the place to be to play out this consolidation
2014-09-18 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the SPX today
2014-09-18 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got confirmation of this higher price high with the SPX breadth MCO moving above both its zero line and last week's high point
2014-09-18 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to stay at new highs though
2014-09-18 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to take out the highs of early September
2014-09-18 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though, here too, we generated a crossover buy signal today on the SPX components
2014-09-18 16:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once gain, we should never under estimate the underlying technical strength of this marketplace
2014-09-18 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh boy
2014-09-18 16:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the OEX go!
2014-09-18 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: solid buy signal there
2014-09-18 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with new all time price highs in the OEX
2014-09-18 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the underlying strength to support it on both a short term and intermediate term basis
2014-09-18 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the great things about the MCSUM
2014-09-18 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you can take a cursory view of the chart
2014-09-18 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can actually see how much money is either moving in or out
2014-09-18 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all dependent on how far the separation of the individual postings are
2014-09-18 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as you can see there was a ton of money that came in today
2014-09-18 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as today's post had a wide expansion to it
2014-09-18 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2014-09-18 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top 100 stocks for both exchanges seem to leading the way
2014-09-18 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good news on a short term basis
2014-09-18 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but could be problematic on a intermediate term basis as it's far better to see those issues who are more related to growth leading those issues that can be described as having value
2014-09-18 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the Dow as well
2014-09-18 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to match yesterday's all time high in the Dow Transports
2014-09-18 16:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a continuation Dow Theory signal
2014-09-18 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCO confirmed the new all time highs today
2014-09-18 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2014-09-18 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also moved high enough now to where prices are able to STAY at these new highs
2014-09-18 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy signal as well in the Dow MCO components
2014-09-18 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll likely see the Dow breadth MCSUM join the party to new highs as soon as tomorrow
2014-09-18 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the MID data
2014-09-18 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it remains below its zero line
2014-09-18 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did see a break above the declining tops line today
2014-09-18 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this basket of issues might be a day behind
2014-09-18 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially given the strength we saw in the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that the cost of money is likely to pull back a bit
2014-09-18 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good...better strength today in the SML
2014-09-18 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now snapped back to the SML breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also inched out a crossover buy signal in the SML breadth MCO components
2014-09-18 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of this gives us a full stop to the declining direction of the SML breadth MCSUM right at it's zero line
2014-09-18 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "like magic"
2014-09-18 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on a total market basis
2014-09-18 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the TM breadth MCO broke above its declining tops line today
2014-09-18 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it still has a bit more work to do in taking out both last week's high point and its zero line
2014-09-18 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less...our small blip resistance area seen just above this same zero line
2014-09-18 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-18 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals are now looking more constructive
2014-09-18 16:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but much of the strength so far is moving into the cream stocks that make up the NYSE
2014-09-18 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-09-18 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now take our defensive posture off the table
2014-09-18 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must continue to vigilant and look for better broad based market participation by the MID, SML and COMPX
2014-09-18 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...might be all tied to tomorrow's OPEX
2014-09-18 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2014-09-18 16:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the major futures contracts seem to be
2014-09-18 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ND, ES and the Dow
2014-09-18 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as these contracts have now expired
2014-09-18 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the sectors
2014-09-18 16:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete on the XLY breadth MCO
2014-09-18 16:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though both of the XLY components are back above their zero line
2014-09-18 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they still haven't crossed over as yet
2014-09-18 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buyers are close here in taking back control
2014-09-18 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they'll need their friends to belly up to the bar a bit to help them move over the top
2014-09-18 16:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...our timing for the beginning of next week as a tradable low is looking pretty good
2014-09-18 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving above the previous week's highs and the zero line
2014-09-18 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO has not moved above the important early September highs as yet
2014-09-18 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is needed for prices to move to new highs and STAY there
2014-09-18 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action
2014-09-18 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how this all works together
2014-09-18 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we saw new highs with Tuesday's higher high
2014-09-18 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices could not stay there on Wednesday
2014-09-18 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed today below Tuesday's close
2014-09-18 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a good example of how this all "works together" in what is needed for prices to continue to move in one direction or the other (in this case, higher)
2014-09-18 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...what you will also notice when you look at the XLP breadth MCSUM
2014-09-18 16:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that its pattern is right now at the highs of early July
2014-09-18 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for this challenge to be successful
2014-09-18 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there MUST be enough energy to actually break above this ceiling of resistance
2014-09-18 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way that can happen is...
2014-09-18 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-09-18 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO must move above its early September highs to do so
2014-09-18 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "all for one, one for all"
2014-09-18 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any lack of follow through then by the buyers
2014-09-18 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM challenge will fail
2014-09-18 17:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a double top structure will be left behind to either regroup or to fall away from
2014-09-18 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since prices in the XLP are now higher than the previous highs over the summer
2014-09-18 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any failure here to move above these same MCSUM highs is likely to be a longer term sell signal for this basket of stocks
2014-09-18 17:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a important, almost KEY, juncture for the staples
2014-09-18 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback now complete on the XLE breadth MCO
2014-09-18 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it plows to the downside
2014-09-18 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provided the energy for the XLE breadth MCSUM to break below its zero line and previous MCSUM horizontal support
2014-09-18 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should now clear the way to prices in the XLE to continue lower
2014-09-18 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the recommendation if one were to use the .10 stop above Tuesday's highs
2014-09-18 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to switch to the Parabolic SAR for your sliding stop as prices are likely to make lower lows
2014-09-18 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-09-18 17:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $92.50 should provide at least temporary support
2014-09-18 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was the downside target?
2014-09-18 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I forget
2014-09-18 17:06:42 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: i think between 92 and 92.50
2014-09-18 17:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wasn't it first 92.50?
2014-09-18 17:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...thought so
2014-09-18 17:06:50 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: yes
2014-09-18 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any lower low in the XLE breadth MCO allowing prices to move to around $90 (?)
2014-09-18 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $89.50 I think it was
2014-09-18 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2014-09-18 17:07:44 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: yep
2014-09-18 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still the weakest sector
2014-09-18 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good skill on your trades
2014-09-18 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing breakout strength in the XLF to the upside
2014-09-18 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we were able to move above the blip resistance point on the XLE breadth MCO today
2014-09-18 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also above the declining tops line
2014-09-18 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...usually
2014-09-18 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I stress the word usually
2014-09-18 17:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials tend to rally based on the amount of return that they can get on their lending
2014-09-18 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the XLF is rising here
2014-09-18 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that interest rates are likely to remain stable now...if not begin to again move higher
2014-09-18 17:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: following 30 year mortgages
2014-09-18 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I got a 1/8 point tick higher today across the board
2014-09-18 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside...these institutions are quick to raise rates...but were slow in lowering them over the last month
2014-09-18 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 30 year rates, with zero points, moved from 4.5% to 4.625% today
2014-09-18 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was also looking at the yield curve today
2014-09-18 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and T-Bills remain near zero
2014-09-18 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 2-5 year notes have been rising nicely for the better part of the year
2014-09-18 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything from 7 years on have been moving sideways with a bullish bias (higher rates)
2014-09-18 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now much of this is on the anticipation of the FED finishing up their buy backs by the 2nd quarter of next year (as they promised back 2012)
2014-09-18 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to watch how things go from here and to remind ourselves that if there is any debt you wish to incur on a project or purchase, this is probably the best time to get things into motion
2014-09-18 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price highs in the XLV today
2014-09-18 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though the XLV breadth MCO is back above its zero line
2014-09-18 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it hasn't moved above its reaction high point at this juncture
2014-09-18 17:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-09-18 17:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above the declining tops line that's controlling the pattern
2014-09-18 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those who are in this ETF need to be somewhat careful and prepare for a probable ambush by the sellers UNLESS we begin to see better money flow characteristics that would justify these same new price highs
2014-09-18 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...this could be a old fashioned blow off
2014-09-18 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we begin phase 2 of ACA
2014-09-18 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where small businesses have to participate
2014-09-18 17:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO moved above resistance today
2014-09-18 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be enough for prices to not only challenge their all time highs
2014-09-18 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also move above them
2014-09-18 17:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-09-18 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must also acknowledge that the XLI is not really confirming the all time closing highs we have in the Dow Industrials and Transports
2014-09-18 17:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a bit uncomfortable given the close relationship between these two Dow indices and the XLI itself
2014-09-18 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another little problem near term is that
2014-09-18 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we see the XLI breadth MCO above its early September highs
2014-09-18 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the case with the components
2014-09-18 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a bit of internal divergence going on here
2014-09-18 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that unless is taken care of quickly
2014-09-18 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can lead to a sudden retracement in prices to fill this breadth dynamic vacuum
2014-09-18 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB closed at new all time price highs today
2014-09-18 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's absolutely no confirmation by either the XLB breadth MCO or MCSUM on these highs
2014-09-18 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be another good set up for the shorts
2014-09-18 17:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with the weakness we're seeing in the metals
2014-09-18 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2014-09-18 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how gold and silver closed
2014-09-18 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you serious?
2014-09-18 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold closed up?
2014-09-18 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2014-09-18 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a Hammer Stick to boot
2014-09-18 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a high volume reversal
2014-09-18 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver closed up too?
2014-09-18 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about clearing out the stops and then leaving the market participants behind!
2014-09-18 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to watch this now
2014-09-18 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we see divergences in the PM breadth data this weekend
2014-09-18 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though I'm still in the camp that says November/December for our next likely low
2014-09-18 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever the market wants to's fine by me
2014-09-18 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe this is the beginning of a simple snapback to what was old support from the gold symmetrical triangle?
2014-09-18 17:27:47 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: gdxj outperforming gdx
2014-09-18 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if so..there's a $50 rally coming short term
2014-09-18 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very interesting
2014-09-18 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll see what the TSX Venture cumulative charts look like when I go and get the BETS prelim later
2014-09-18 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected
2014-09-18 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK moved to new recovery highs today
2014-09-18 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to be the leading sector for the NASDAQ
2014-09-18 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...for the market at large
2014-09-18 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got the SAR buy signal on that yesterday
2014-09-18 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLK breadth MCO is confirming the new highs
2014-09-18 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a crossover buy on the components
2014-09-18 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2014-09-18 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we are done with the consolidation here
2014-09-18 17:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we start our re-initiation to the upside
2014-09-18 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sectors like the XLE and XLB are likely to remain weak
2014-09-18 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they may not move as quickly as the shorts may want them to
2014-09-18 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just may churn
2014-09-18 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger trend always takes the lead on these kind of decisions
2014-09-18 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with many of the breadth MCSUM's still well above their zero lines
2014-09-18 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance does remain higher
2014-09-18 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's higher highs in the XLK also puts to rest any idea of the inverted symmetrical triangle
2014-09-18 17:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...there's still a slim chance
2014-09-18 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds of this turning into something more bearish has left the playing field
2014-09-18 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oooo
2014-09-18 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a surprising breakdown in the XLU breadth MCO today
2014-09-18 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though at this point
2014-09-18 17:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components suggest that this likely to be a consolidation
2014-09-18 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard one to call on the XLU is now
2014-09-18 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a choppy pattern short term
2014-09-18 17:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what this also tells us...
2014-09-18 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2014-09-18 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is moving out of defensive issues
2014-09-18 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moving into...oh...the XLF
2014-09-18 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the XLK
2014-09-18 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same two sectors in which we've been looking to lead this market higher since the November 2012 lows
2014-09-18 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the lower low in the XLU breadth MCO is least to me
2014-09-18 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-18 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now seeing indications that those sectors that have been leading the market higher are starting to breakout of their high level consolidation patterns to the upside
2014-09-18 17:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and getting money flow confirmation on a short term trending basis
2014-09-18 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength would secure our price lows for this same consolidation
2014-09-18 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the worse that may happen is a test of the recent September lows, but not a violation
2014-09-18 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have to do is move above the early September highs on the various MCO's and that will confirm that
2014-09-18 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we'll get that answer as soon as Friday
2014-09-18 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wouldn't be surprising to see this some time next week
2014-09-18 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are showing strong buying now
2014-09-18 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though they remain just below climactic levels
2014-09-18 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and NDX STVO's are neutral
2014-09-18 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX and Dow are echoing this strong buying pattern
2014-09-18 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are suggesting "hold it, not so fast" on the idea that the strong uptrend has been broken down
2014-09-18 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any additional strength there, in the next two trading sessions, would put back on a strong uptrend forecast
2014-09-18 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.13
2014-09-18 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now back to neutral at .92
2014-09-18 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good
2014-09-18 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .88
2014-09-18 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2014-09-18 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much neutral there as well
2014-09-18 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .93
2014-09-18 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .87
2014-09-18 17:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: side can now take control
2014-09-18 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS
2014-09-18 17:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-09-18 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +25
2014-09-18 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bueno
2014-09-18 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSE Ventures data is falling apart
2014-09-18 17:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the precious metals are in trouble
2014-09-18 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the NYSE is the strongest area now
2014-09-18 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ has great volume data
2014-09-18 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TSX Venture Index has broken support now
2014-09-18 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-09-18 17:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we came close to another Zweig Breadth Thrust warning on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did not get the trigger
2014-09-18 17:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the 10 day SMA and 10 day EMA moved down to a 40 reading
2014-09-18 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but both did not move below it
2014-09-18 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the positive side
2014-09-18 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having low readings like this do highly suggest that a very important price bottom is developing
2014-09-18 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...has developed
2014-09-18 17:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-09-18 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the breadth charts are suspect
2014-09-18 17:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's not get to bulled up here
2014-09-18 17:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2014-09-18 17:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having the OEX and Dow leading has had its historic failures for the market at large
2014-09-18 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better not to rush into things
2014-09-18 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to be sure
2014-09-18 17:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-18 17:52:47 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Nothing here and thanks for the great session
2014-09-18 17:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was like a roller coaster ride today [smile]
2014-09-18 17:53:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yep
2014-09-18 17:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looked good, then bad, then promising, then terrible
2014-09-18 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many mixed signals not make a trend make
2014-09-18 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday will clear things up..if not Monday
2014-09-18 17:55:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Still learning evert chat session
2014-09-18 17:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2014-09-18 17:55:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-09-18 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-09-18 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have another hours worth of work in front me
2014-09-18 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm going to slide out the side door
2014-09-18 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-09-18 17:56:03 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thx
2014-09-18 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-09-18 17:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-09-18 17:56:10 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thanks again
2014-09-18 17:56:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night All
2014-09-18 17:57:11 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good night

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