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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Note: This is Thursday, 9/18's chat.

2008-09-18 19:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-09-18 19:10:28 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: hello, hello
2008-09-18 19:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone...holding up?
2008-09-18 19:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Hi Tom!
2008-09-18 19:10:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hi dave
2008-09-18 19:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how are you?
2008-09-18 19:10:58 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: good to see you, I'm still here, lol
2008-09-18 19:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was getting a bit worried...
2008-09-18 19:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: glad to see you're up and about!
2008-09-18 19:11:27 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: thank you
2008-09-18 19:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....if anyone wanted to know how it feels to go through a hurricane, the last couple of days of market action sure has come pretty close
2008-09-18 19:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-09-18 19:12:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bottom?
2008-09-18 19:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice timing on gold there Dave!
2008-09-18 19:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you tell me
2008-09-18 19:13:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: figured we'd start from where we left off
2008-09-18 19:13:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bottom = no .........but doesn't mean we can't have a bounce
2008-09-18 19:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was?
2008-09-18 19:13:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the panic was there, but the babies didn't go out with the bath water
2008-09-18 19:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or fully retrace a 4% move back to back?
2008-09-18 19:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tough crowd..
2008-09-18 19:14:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you mean down 4% tomorrow?
2008-09-18 19:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 4% down yesterday, 4% up today?
2008-09-18 19:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pass the Dramamine!
2008-09-18 19:14:44 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: opex games tomorrow
2008-09-18 19:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or already behind us
2008-09-18 19:14:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if it were THE bottom, people wouldn't distinguish between goog, gs, or aem
2008-09-18 19:15:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they would all be stocks and would all get sold
2008-09-18 19:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: THE bottom would be zero
2008-09-18 19:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "A" bottom is different
2008-09-18 19:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be sure, there is a lot of turbulence right now
2008-09-18 19:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like surfing during a hurricane
2008-09-18 19:16:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fed better announce a plan before the open tomorrow
2008-09-18 19:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well, we know Congress won't - they rather take time off to get elected than to do anything of substance
2008-09-18 19:16:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they are meeting right now
2008-09-18 19:16:45 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: we've had worse markets, this hasn't been a 'crash', just a rapid 10% correction from Aug highs...
2008-09-18 19:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure they are..pointing fingers
2008-09-18 19:17:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they all are
2008-09-18 19:17:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: to announce a plan
2008-09-18 19:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm sure the debate is lively
2008-09-18 19:17:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: house, finance, committee, pres, bernanke, paulson
2008-09-18 19:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Hey...I thought they had no ideas on what to do?
2008-09-18 19:17:34 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I think they're over-reacting...
2008-09-18 19:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the last three has been reported
2008-09-18 19:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-09-18 19:17:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: all been reported
2008-09-18 19:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like everyone else?
2008-09-18 19:17:59 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: emotional responses
2008-09-18 19:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I love times like this in the market
2008-09-18 19:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes Mojave
2008-09-18 19:18:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bi partisan, etc....meeting with all the big wigs
2008-09-18 19:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any bets that anything that they do come up with won't do any good?
2008-09-18 19:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: further
2008-09-18 19:18:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it will raise the floor, but that may not mean much
2008-09-18 19:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any bets that not one of them will take the blame?
2008-09-18 19:19:03 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-18 19:19:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ill tell you this
2008-09-18 19:19:14 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: they'll certainly FIND blame
2008-09-18 19:19:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: All they can talk about is the short sellers
2008-09-18 19:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like the committee that looked into the 1987 decline
2008-09-18 19:19:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its nauseating
2008-09-18 19:19:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and wrong
2008-09-18 19:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they didn't know why it happened, but they had a plan to fix it
2008-09-18 19:19:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: all day cnbc, every guest, every topic, short sellers this, short sellers that
2008-09-18 19:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short sellers...speculators...whatever
2008-09-18 19:20:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: naked shorts
2008-09-18 19:20:04 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: SEC gave exemptions to 'big 5' broker dealers in '04
2008-09-18 19:20:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its their fault
2008-09-18 19:20:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they all say
2008-09-18 19:20:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: joke
2008-09-18 19:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and today...the market went higher without the naked shorts...how coincidental!
2008-09-18 19:20:22 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: allowing them to go from 12:1 margin to 40:1
2008-09-18 19:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-09-18 19:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: leverage is one area
2008-09-18 19:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: derivatives another
2008-09-18 19:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: mismanagement and greed
2008-09-18 19:20:59 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: which 5 got the exemption? BSC, LEH, MER, MS, GS
2008-09-18 19:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: laws that tried to "fix problems" that never needed fixing
2008-09-18 19:21:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the market went higher today b/c of the announcement of the meeting tonight, and that the UK suspend ALL shorts on financial stocks till jan 15
2008-09-18 19:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for our own good
2008-09-18 19:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what do you suppose is going to happen to a free market when a key part of trading is taken away?
2008-09-18 19:22:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i personally think that they are manipulating the market the day before opex and its wrong.........its against what we stand for
2008-09-18 19:22:10 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: China announced it would support it's banks, HangSeng erased 1000 pt drop overnight
2008-09-18 19:22:25 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: we don't sound much dif
2008-09-18 19:22:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on cnbc, they have the whole bunch on camera
2008-09-18 19:22:44 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: oh well, onward...
2008-09-18 19:22:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: all the big boys
2008-09-18 19:22:52 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room:
2008-09-18 19:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will always be consequences to that in which it feels like doing the right thing
2008-09-18 19:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone in this room is not stupid
2008-09-18 19:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who have been bearish have always had the right reason to be so on a fundamental basis
2008-09-18 19:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether it's in the last month, or in the last 100 years
2008-09-18 19:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this is not why we trade the markets
2008-09-18 19:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we trade the markets to "capitalize" on situations
2008-09-18 19:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether we agree with them or not is not what this is all about
2008-09-18 19:25:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i agree with that
2008-09-18 19:25:35 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: So what is your answer to your question, "what do you suppose is going to happen to a free market when a key part of trading is taken away?"
2008-09-18 19:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only way to consistently make money in the markets is by following money flow
2008-09-18 19:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the balance in nature
2008-09-18 19:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is a constant
2008-09-18 19:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trying to change this constant will usually give us unintended situations that can't be corrected with a wave of a magic wand
2008-09-18 19:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: humans are animals
2008-09-18 19:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and unfortunately, we try to out think what is usual and customary
2008-09-18 19:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because we ARE humans
2008-09-18 19:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more to the point
2008-09-18 19:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you take an amoeba
2008-09-18 19:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a single cell animal
2008-09-18 19:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that has no brain or emotion
2008-09-18 19:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you introduce a chemical or a stick to it...it will run away from it
2008-09-18 19:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we, on the other hand, want to make that chemical or stick our friend
2008-09-18 19:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: me thinks I'm going too far off track here
2008-09-18 19:29:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lets talk on the molecular level please
2008-09-18 19:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...let me get DP up and we'll plow through the data and see if we can find anything to help us sort things out
2008-09-18 19:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-18 19:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll first have to excuse me...I'm still a bit under the weather...so I may not be as sharp as you are used to
2008-09-18 19:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after breaking to new lows on Wednesday, and being at the zero line on Tuesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO is once again back to its zero line
2008-09-18 19:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so after two days of action...nothing has changed
2008-09-18 19:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are neutral
2008-09-18 19:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...we're priced higher today than where we were last Monday
2008-09-18 19:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fun, fun, fun
2008-09-18 19:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also generated another range bar today on the NYA that could be considered one of "key" to the price pattern
2008-09-18 19:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the difference between Tuesday's bar being that we also had an "outside range day"
2008-09-18 19:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with yesterday action closing down, we should close higher on Friday
2008-09-18 19:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to be congested as well
2008-09-18 19:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: continuing to show a lack of conviction by the bears
2008-09-18 19:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (not be confused with panic air pockets)
2008-09-18 19:35:57 [Message] lew -> Main Room: vix showed panic VERY high today
2008-09-18 19:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how high did it get?
2008-09-18 19:36:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 42
2008-09-18 19:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know it was around 36 yesterday
2008-09-18 19:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nice
2008-09-18 19:36:18 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-09-18 19:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: PC ratios?
2008-09-18 19:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just checked the Bollinger PVI...we're on a buy signal there
2008-09-18 19:37:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cboe 1.15
2008-09-18 19:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the link at DP - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/PVI.html
2008-09-18 19:37:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: equity .90
2008-09-18 19:37:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oex 1.00
2008-09-18 19:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks Dave
2008-09-18 19:38:15 [Message] lew -> Main Room: equity is .79 pc is 1.58
2008-09-18 19:38:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that was the 10 dma, you prefer that or raw?
2008-09-18 19:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope - 10dma
2008-09-18 19:38:32 [Message] lew -> Main Room: at cboe
2008-09-18 19:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the baby
2008-09-18 19:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know if it really means as much as it did in the 1980's
2008-09-18 19:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but always good to take a peak from time to time
2008-09-18 19:39:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cnbc, "wall street journal reports that sec will temporarily ban short selling"
2008-09-18 19:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: great
2008-09-18 19:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how can they do that?
2008-09-18 19:39:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dont know, they just announced 1 min ago
2008-09-18 19:40:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cox trying to save his job
2008-09-18 19:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "gee, I know what to do...let's not anyone borrow or sell stock...that way no one can buy it!!!"
2008-09-18 19:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why is everyone continuing to point fingers at figure heads?
2008-09-18 19:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all roads lead to Congress
2008-09-18 19:41:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well cox has done an aweful job
2008-09-18 19:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-09-18 19:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a month ago he was doing a great job!
2008-09-18 19:41:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hes allowed the naked shorts to run wild for a long time............its against the rules and he never enforced it
2008-09-18 19:41:44 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Can you say asleep, maybe even comatose?
2008-09-18 19:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: he "let" them?
2008-09-18 19:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about the order takers?
2008-09-18 19:42:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: he never enforced it, its his job to enforce the market rules
2008-09-18 19:42:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: he didn't
2008-09-18 19:42:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its simple
2008-09-18 19:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...and the companies that trade the stocks on the boards don't have this same responsibility to follow the rules?
2008-09-18 19:43:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: his agency was created to enforce
2008-09-18 19:43:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cmon dave
2008-09-18 19:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like me robbing a bank and the police commissioner should be fired because he didn't beef up the security
2008-09-18 19:43:31 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: If there is no enforcement, there is absolutely no incentive for others to play by the rules. None.
2008-09-18 19:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand both of you
2008-09-18 19:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you make good points
2008-09-18 19:43:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: poor comparison
2008-09-18 19:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think so
2008-09-18 19:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we'll leave that to others to ponder
2008-09-18 19:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can blame anyone you wish
2008-09-18 19:44:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it would be your comparison, except the police would be outside watching it happen
2008-09-18 19:44:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its not my blame, i just simply said he's coming up with these rules to save his job
2008-09-18 19:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the bottom line is that these rules, laws....
2008-09-18 19:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never mind
2008-09-18 19:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on
2008-09-18 19:45:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: part of plan is fdic going to offer protection for money market funds
2008-09-18 19:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how can they do that...they're out of money!?!?
2008-09-18 19:46:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they just said 3 trillion
2008-09-18 19:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it won't work
2008-09-18 19:46:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in money market funds
2008-09-18 19:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: social programs don't work
2008-09-18 19:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time after time after time
2008-09-18 19:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let the market work it out
2008-09-18 19:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any who....
2008-09-18 19:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO spike higher today
2008-09-18 19:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we have a problem now
2008-09-18 19:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as you can see on the chart, we came very close to taking out the July lows yesterday on this MCO
2008-09-18 19:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not a good thing
2008-09-18 19:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not only does it blow out the divergence we were talking about on Tuesday
2008-09-18 19:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this actually gives us a reset on the price pattern itself
2008-09-18 19:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, this will extend this correctional process a little while longer
2008-09-18 19:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this also tells us that the interest rate sensitive issues are taking it very hard right now
2008-09-18 19:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing a lack of confidence in the system
2008-09-18 19:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this
2008-09-18 19:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was probably the main reason why we saw gold have its best one day move to the upside yesterday
2008-09-18 19:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...
2008-09-18 19:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who would want the safety of .25% on a T-Bill
2008-09-18 19:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you might as well put the money under your mattress
2008-09-18 19:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...we still have a higher low than that of July
2008-09-18 19:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and further...we're still above the flag lows of last summer
2008-09-18 19:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p88009015897&a=118792146&r=399
2008-09-18 19:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NYAD itself, we have once again pierced the lower end of the channel
2008-09-18 19:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which should indicate another capitulation moment
2008-09-18 19:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that combo chart tells a nice story
2008-09-18 19:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the NYUD combo - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p06063388509&a=118792131&r=874
2008-09-18 19:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing the lack of volume when compared on a short term trending basis (the MCO)
2008-09-18 19:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: kind of weird the last couple of days
2008-09-18 19:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 90% breadth down days and volume was not nearly as bad
2008-09-18 19:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OH...and I guess we got our answer on who's going to replace AIG today...Kraft
2008-09-18 19:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the NAAD data - check the MCO - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAAD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p20967548256&a=118792179&r=699
2008-09-18 19:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth keeps finding support where it needs to to maintain the longer term bullish chart pattern
2008-09-18 19:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the NAUD...check the leadership direction on the MCO here - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAUD&p=D&st=2007-06-01&i=p13223202764&a=118792169&r=188
2008-09-18 19:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO is also back to its zero line
2008-09-18 20:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as is the SPX and OEX
2008-09-18 20:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pay particular attention to the pattern of the MCSUM's here
2008-09-18 20:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll note that many of them are moving net sideways...consolidating
2008-09-18 20:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the spacing of the postings very congested
2008-09-18 20:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this provides the view of the lack of conviction of sellers right now in spite of the wild gyrations of price
2008-09-18 20:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today was a good example of trying to squeeze more sellers out, and when this didn't happen, an equal and opposite move was the outcome
2008-09-18 20:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...I sure don't like the idea of taking away the ability to short
2008-09-18 20:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is concerning
2008-09-18 20:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if it makes you "feel good"....
2008-09-18 20:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like Mojave shared...over reaction
2008-09-18 20:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to concentrate
2008-09-18 20:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one moment
2008-09-18 20:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how does a market remain fair and orderly if there isn't two sides of a trade?
2008-09-18 20:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's going to cause some wacky things to happen on a technical basis
2008-09-18 20:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe I don't know what I'm talking about
2008-09-18 20:05:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cnbc just reported that nothing will be announced tomorrow
2008-09-18 20:05:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: by the fed
2008-09-18 20:05:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: or gov
2008-09-18 20:05:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: as a result of this meeting
2008-09-18 20:05:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that was the expectation
2008-09-18 20:06:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: going to be disappointing
2008-09-18 20:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if everyone would just leave well enough alone...the market will work it out
2008-09-18 20:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's annoying
2008-09-18 20:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and frightening
2008-09-18 20:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...nice moves today on the MID and SML price charts
2008-09-18 20:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, the SML was up 6% today
2008-09-18 20:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (good - hehe)
2008-09-18 20:08:06 [Message] lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-18 20:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I added another 10% yesterday at the close...in the Russell
2008-09-18 20:08:49 [Message] lew -> Main Room: nice Fib
2008-09-18 20:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it was the only index with the MCSUM above the zero line...so I played the percentages
2008-09-18 20:09:35 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I had long Q's
2008-09-18 20:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all this money sloshing around
2008-09-18 20:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I got to tell you something
2008-09-18 20:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when this all sorts out...boy...the potential here is going to floor many
2008-09-18 20:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm hearing calls of depression now
2008-09-18 20:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the statements are as outrageous as I've EVER heard them
2008-09-18 20:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all of this happening with the price patterns well above their 2003 lows?
2008-09-18 20:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: imagine that
2008-09-18 20:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I digress
2008-09-18 20:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take a quick look at the sector charts
2008-09-18 20:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: snapback to the zero line on the XLY breadth MCO
2008-09-18 20:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLY breadth MCSUM remains above its zero line
2008-09-18 20:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not much selling going on there...so far
2008-09-18 20:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe another week of back and fill...a zero line test on the MCSUM...
2008-09-18 20:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same situation with the XLP data
2008-09-18 20:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here the price action is less than 10% away from all time highs
2008-09-18 20:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLE data continues it's bottoming process
2008-09-18 20:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we pretty much called the bottom in crude (so far) with our last session
2008-09-18 20:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the higher high today on the XLE breadth MCO, we have a upside now of around the 70 level
2008-09-18 20:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if this MCO can move above the late August highs...75-76
2008-09-18 20:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: strong reversal on the XLF, and there's your buy signal
2008-09-18 20:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: finally
2008-09-18 20:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: note the reversal bar on the price chart
2008-09-18 20:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that the XLF breadth MCO is back above its zero line
2008-09-18 20:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while it's components only tested their zero line
2008-09-18 20:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLF breadth MCSUM is already in positive territory
2008-09-18 20:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we got just about everything we wanted here
2008-09-18 20:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a price test of the July lows and the internals holding
2008-09-18 20:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go to town
2008-09-18 20:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who wish to be on the conservative side
2008-09-18 20:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still need a break, and hold, above the 22.50 level
2008-09-18 20:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the internals look very good here
2008-09-18 20:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and even better
2008-09-18 20:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NOBODY wants them
2008-09-18 20:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also watch the XLF breadth MCSUM
2008-09-18 20:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll notice that the current level is the same as the last top seen back in October of last year
2008-09-18 20:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a expanded post above the +250 level would add further confirmation of a turn
2008-09-18 20:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...stops are just below the July price lows
2008-09-18 20:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is around 10-15%
2008-09-18 20:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be high for some...so due diligence is key
2008-09-18 20:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see how it builds...or not
2008-09-18 20:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we should also not forget that we still have upside MCO objectives on the XLF of 27.50
2008-09-18 20:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since the latest sell off did not take out the previous low in the MCO pattern
2008-09-18 20:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: checking the volume side - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsi_Vol_XLF.html
2008-09-18 20:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll note here that the XLF volume MCSUM remains under the zero line
2008-09-18 20:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and currently has a reading of -439
2008-09-18 20:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so until we can get this side closer to the zero line, the likelihood of a break above the 22.50 level could turn into a time consuming process
2008-09-18 20:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...accumulation is warranted...with the risk reward better than average
2008-09-18 20:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I really like the pattern here
2008-09-18 20:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLV area is likely to correct for a while yet
2008-09-18 20:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the new low generated in the breadth MCO...and the breadth MCSUM moving down and through its zero line
2008-09-18 20:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: support on this MCSUM is at the -250 level (after moving above the +500 level)
2008-09-18 20:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this also the area of the line of support
2008-09-18 20:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just going to take some time to build another platform in which to rally from
2008-09-18 20:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLI data is doing it's best to hold at these levels
2008-09-18 20:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only hesitancy here is with the XLI breadth MCSUM
2008-09-18 20:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it is diverging
2008-09-18 20:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...if I didn't know any better...it still looks like we're creating a major bottom here
2008-09-18 20:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLB data continues to struggle higher
2008-09-18 20:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this is also in the face of a major hurricane hitting the marketplace
2008-09-18 20:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not going to touch the XLK data...need more information there
2008-09-18 20:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLU breadth MCO is working on triple bull divergence now
2008-09-18 20:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking primarily at the breadth MCSUM's, and we're as washed out as we can be on an intermediate term basis
2008-09-18 20:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term?
2008-09-18 20:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never under-estimate the emotion of fear
2008-09-18 20:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we can't control, or don't understand, can throw things into a whack
2008-09-18 20:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are whipping back and forth
2008-09-18 20:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much emotion
2008-09-18 20:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's still neutral
2008-09-18 20:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking for direction
2008-09-18 20:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's continue to allow for more of a wash out
2008-09-18 20:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now we come to the real problem area
2008-09-18 20:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .38
2008-09-18 20:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .78
2008-09-18 20:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "overbought"
2008-09-18 20:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .32
2008-09-18 20:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .87
2008-09-18 20:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .30
2008-09-18 20:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .81
2008-09-18 20:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "overbought"
2008-09-18 20:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dangerous rip tide conditions
2008-09-18 20:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no new money either entering or leaving
2008-09-18 20:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who are trading now are the same ones who were trading the last couple of weeks
2008-09-18 20:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone else is standing aside (by and large)
2008-09-18 20:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (and for good reason)
2008-09-18 20:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...for now...we continue in a state of confusion, flux, and emotionalism
2008-09-18 20:39:52 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: I don't want to interrupt the flow here, but I am doubting the merits of TA at this moment as the government is interjecting things left and right. For example, I always thought that shorts provide a guaranteed buyer and thus created a floor under the market. Taking that away introduces some major changes in market dynamics. How in the world do TA norms take this into account?
2008-09-18 20:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hard to take a trending position under these circumstances
2008-09-18 20:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the best idea here is to stand aside and wait for some stability
2008-09-18 20:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I agree
2008-09-18 20:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's concerning
2008-09-18 20:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and will tend to skew things for a bit
2008-09-18 20:41:09 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Stand aside is good advice.
2008-09-18 20:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another reason to step aside is until the dunderheads in Washington find something else to keep them busy
2008-09-18 20:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can't make the rules unless you understand the mechanism
2008-09-18 20:41:50 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: That's insulting to dunderheads.
2008-09-18 20:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-18 20:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's no one right now that oozes leadership
2008-09-18 20:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: except for Bernanke
2008-09-18 20:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately though, his choices here are lacking responsibility
2008-09-18 20:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but he's doing what he can with what he's been given
2008-09-18 20:43:31 [Message] leverage3 -> Main Room: Keeper of the house of cards
2008-09-18 20:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...cool heads MUST prevail
2008-09-18 20:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we don't have that
2008-09-18 20:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-09-18 20:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopefully I will be over this illness and I can think a bit clearer next week...
2008-09-18 20:44:43 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: thanks for your efforts as always Fib
2008-09-18 20:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it's an important time
2008-09-18 20:45:02 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: historic
2008-09-18 20:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess so
2008-09-18 20:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...it's necessary to keep things on track
2008-09-18 20:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it this way
2008-09-18 20:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once all of this is out of the way...how much confidence do you think will return to the markets?
2008-09-18 20:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given that new rules are in place
2008-09-18 20:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more commissions are watching
2008-09-18 20:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yadda yadda yadda
2008-09-18 20:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: EGBOK
2008-09-18 20:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "everything's gonna be OK"
2008-09-18 20:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it just doesn't feel that way now
2008-09-18 20:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...
2008-09-18 20:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with all of this government intervention
2008-09-18 20:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where will they turn to when this kind of thing happens in the future?
2008-09-18 20:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it will
2008-09-18 20:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Marxism...yechh
2008-09-18 20:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going home and get into bed and hopefully sleep this thing off
2008-09-18 20:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a GREAT weekend
2008-09-18 20:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ENJOY your life!
2008-09-18 20:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: turn off the TV
2008-09-18 20:48:16 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: any govt motives here to keep wall st off the front page during election cycle?
2008-09-18 20:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the radio
2008-09-18 20:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't even get me started on the election
2008-09-18 20:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only thing that matters is...
2008-09-18 20:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who will win seats in Congress
2008-09-18 20:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the president matters very little
2008-09-18 20:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially this time around...
2008-09-18 20:49:20 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: self serving market policies?
2008-09-18 20:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe..
2008-09-18 20:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gives them something to talk about...I guess
2008-09-18 20:49:38 [Message] gman -> Main Room: Is there a chart somewhere that shows how the market fairs with the different parties in control of Congress?
2008-09-18 20:49:46 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: all over the web
2008-09-18 20:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since they don't talk about anything that needs to be addresses
2008-09-18 20:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-09-18 20:50:03 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: best is split: dem pres/repub congress
2008-09-18 20:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed mojave
2008-09-18 20:50:17 [Message] gman -> Main Room: I'll go in search of one.
2008-09-18 20:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that way NOTHING gets done - like the last 2 years
2008-09-18 20:50:28 [Message] gman -> Main Room: thanks and thanks for everything Dave
2008-09-18 20:50:41 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: "no man's life, liberty, pursuit of happiness is safe while congress is in session"
2008-09-18 20:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...deep breath in and out...
2008-09-18 20:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: try to put everything into its proper perspective
2008-09-18 20:51:08 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: first 100 days = last 100 days. zilch.
2008-09-18 20:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and most importantly...watch how people react during times of stress
2008-09-18 20:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is key to market psychology
2008-09-18 20:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is always important
2008-09-18 20:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



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