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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-09-17 15:59:57 fib1618: good day
2015-09-17 16:00:00 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-09-17 16:00:19 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-09-17 16:00:31 fib1618: fine and dandy-o!
2015-09-17 16:00:34 rite01: Fine here as well
2015-09-17 16:01:15 thespookyone: looks like you scared everyone off Dave, LOL
2015-09-17 16:01:26 fib1618: ha!
2015-09-17 16:01:34 fib1618: happens when the market rallies
2015-09-17 16:01:45 thespookyone: so true
2015-09-17 16:03:05 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-09-17 16:03:15 rite01: Ticks still in BUY but the Index’s 5 min. 19 and 39 EMA have gone to SELL last hour...this means what?
2015-09-17 16:04:28 fib1618: take a stab at it
2015-09-17 16:04:55 rite01: Ok
2015-09-17 16:05:39 rite01: never mind
2015-09-17 16:05:48 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-17 16:05:59 fib1618: the EMA's didn't go to sell, did they?
2015-09-17 16:06:11 rite01: not on the Tick's
2015-09-17 16:06:13 fib1618: nope
2015-09-17 16:06:39 fib1618: it would be difficult for the TICK to be still on a buy and the EMA's on a sell
2015-09-17 16:06:56 fib1618: but I would be willing to bet that much of this is still short covering
2015-09-17 16:06:58 fib1618: now
2015-09-17 16:07:09 fib1618: ES futures expired at the close today
2015-09-17 16:07:21 fib1618: and that is probably why we had the hard sell off in the last hour
2015-09-17 16:07:25 fib1618: that's out of the way
2015-09-17 16:07:53 fib1618: now we have to get through quarterly options on futures, index options and equity options
2015-09-17 16:08:03 fib1618: much of which were heavy on the put side
2015-09-17 16:08:20 fib1618: but here's the important thing today
2015-09-17 16:08:29 fib1618: the FED did NOT raise rates
2015-09-17 16:08:31 fib1618: in fact
2015-09-17 16:08:38 fib1618: their statement was the same as July's
2015-09-17 16:09:08 fib1618: so this tells us that interest rates are not likely to move higher at the October meeting either
2015-09-17 16:09:36 fib1618: now...why do you think the FED has decided to continue to take a "balanced approach"?
2015-09-17 16:10:12 fib1618: probably because...they see something that tells them the economy is not as robust as many would have you believe
2015-09-17 16:10:17 rite01: The whole world's economy not doing that well...
2015-09-17 16:10:22 fib1618: there you go
2015-09-17 16:10:29 fib1618: and if that's the case
2015-09-17 16:10:50 fib1618: earnings are likely to be disappointing for the 3rd quarter that starts next month
2015-09-17 16:11:09 fib1618: I'm telling you folks
2015-09-17 16:11:16 fib1618: business is really tough right now
2015-09-17 16:11:30 fib1618: and I don't see a light as yet
2015-09-17 16:12:50 fib1618: and shipments out of China over the last 2 months have been really slow
2015-09-17 16:13:00 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-17 16:13:18 fib1618: knowing that stock valuations are solely based on futures earnings growth
2015-09-17 16:14:11 fib1618: one would think that no rate increase today is a stealth way of telling traders that things are not as good as they had hoped with the Unemployment Rate reaching their goal
2015-09-17 16:14:15 fib1618: then again
2015-09-17 16:14:23 fib1618: U-6 is over 10% still
2015-09-17 16:14:58 fib1618: and many have either dropped out or are now working part time because of Obamacare
2015-09-17 16:15:02 thespookyone: what is U-6?
2015-09-17 16:15:14 rite01: Good question
2015-09-17 16:15:30 fib1618: there are 6 different unemployment numbers that the Department of Labor keeps tabs on
2015-09-17 16:15:38 fib1618: the one we hear about is U-3
2015-09-17 16:15:49 fib1618: or is it U-4?
2015-09-17 16:15:54 fib1618: have to check
2015-09-17 16:16:29 fib1618: but U-6 is taking all unemployed including those that have dropped off and are no longer entitled to unemployment
2015-09-17 16:16:45 fib1618: let me check...I'll get the link - one sec
2015-09-17 16:16:56 thespookyone: ah, thx
2015-09-17 16:18:04 rite01: Didn't they used to use report U-6 only many years ago?
2015-09-17 16:18:26 fib1618: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
2015-09-17 16:18:53 fib1618: you'll see it's currently at 10.3%
2015-09-17 16:19:21 fib1618: and, yes, we hear about U-3 the first Friday of the month
2015-09-17 16:19:45 rite01: Dave much Obliged
2015-09-17 16:19:51 fib1618: no problem
2015-09-17 16:20:06 fib1618: usually the U-6 number is about double of what we hear about
2015-09-17 16:20:09 fib1618: and then...
2015-09-17 16:20:20 fib1618: there's the total number of people who are looking for work right now
2015-09-17 16:20:36 fib1618: which is at record...just under 100 million people
2015-09-17 16:20:39 fib1618: now...
2015-09-17 16:20:53 fib1618: if the population of the United States is about 330 million
2015-09-17 16:21:04 fib1618: and we discount those who don't or can't work
2015-09-17 16:21:28 fib1618: you're talking close to 50% of the total work force is still not working
2015-09-17 16:21:37 fib1618: that's probably a bit high
2015-09-17 16:21:41 fib1618: but still it's staggering
2015-09-17 16:21:48 fib1618: yes...
2015-09-17 16:22:01 fib1618: the Government doesn't count part time
2015-09-17 16:22:08 fib1618: or home based businesses
2015-09-17 16:22:15 fib1618: so if we allow for that
2015-09-17 16:22:33 fib1618: it would probably be fair that 1/3 of those who are able to work can't
2015-09-17 16:22:38 fib1618: or won't
2015-09-17 16:23:02 fib1618: and each state has their own incentives and disincentives to hire
2015-09-17 16:23:21 fib1618: raising the minimum wage being paramount
2015-09-17 16:23:28 fib1618: and so it goes
2015-09-17 16:23:30 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-17 16:23:38 fib1618: this was a very interesting FED day
2015-09-17 16:24:09 fib1618: and I'll be watching with great interest how the aftershocks of this travel through the system
2015-09-17 16:24:31 fib1618: for myself...I say "thank you"
2015-09-17 16:24:49 fib1618: because I know there are quite a few out there that would not had made it to the end of the year
2015-09-17 16:25:00 fib1618: if there was a 1/4 point jump
2015-09-17 16:25:06 fib1618: and though that may not sound much
2015-09-17 16:25:54 fib1618: but the higher the debt
2015-09-17 16:26:06 fib1618: the more the minimum payment on those loans that are variable
2015-09-17 16:26:52 fib1618: 100,000 at 5% would be $416 a month in interest
2015-09-17 16:27:22 fib1618: but it would move to $437 a month on a 1/4% point
2015-09-17 16:27:33 fib1618: again
2015-09-17 16:27:38 fib1618: doesn't sound much
2015-09-17 16:27:45 fib1618: but with business so strapped right now
2015-09-17 16:28:03 fib1618: every dollar is being counted closely
2015-09-17 16:28:11 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-17 16:28:14 fib1618: let's move on
2015-09-17 16:28:22 fib1618: and get SC up and see what we have to work with
2015-09-17 16:28:31 fib1618: first...let me check the BETS
2015-09-17 16:28:33 fib1618: one sec
2015-09-17 16:29:32 fib1618: ready?
2015-09-17 16:29:38 fib1618: -20
2015-09-17 16:29:41 fib1618: cash
2015-09-17 16:29:45 unc1998: wow!
2015-09-17 16:29:58 fib1618: we were very close to moving above the EMA's on Tuesday
2015-09-17 16:30:06 fib1618: and did so yesterday
2015-09-17 16:30:21 fib1618: but we have to wait for Friday before we can get too excited
2015-09-17 16:30:28 fib1618: but a nice reversal nonetheless
2015-09-17 16:30:39 fib1618: OK...now that we have some background to work with
2015-09-17 16:30:44 fib1618: let's see how things look
2015-09-17 16:31:25 fib1618: after moving sharply higher on Tuesday
2015-09-17 16:31:37 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO extended those gains into Wednesday
2015-09-17 16:31:58 fib1618: and peaked out at the +70 level
2015-09-17 16:32:13 fib1618: so more than enough to close the MCSUM gap resistance zone
2015-09-17 16:32:51 fib1618: and we can see the new found strength now moving into this basket of issues as the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM begins to stretch out to the upside
2015-09-17 16:32:59 fib1618: as we thought might happen last week
2015-09-17 16:33:47 fib1618: the market again broke out of its indecision patterns before the announcement that was being used as the basis of this same indecision
2015-09-17 16:34:31 fib1618: but then peaked out today as the CVI's told us would likely happen on Tuesday
2015-09-17 16:35:07 fib1618: now...when we look at the NYSE CO breadth MCO components
2015-09-17 16:35:39 fib1618: we also see that the 5% Trend has only today fully snapped back to its zero line
2015-09-17 16:35:44 fib1618: coming in with a reading of +1
2015-09-17 16:35:50 fib1618: so...technically
2015-09-17 16:35:56 fib1618: we have a buy signal here with this MCO
2015-09-17 16:36:11 fib1618: though it's not one in which you can go "all in" either
2015-09-17 16:36:27 fib1618: another good day by the buyers though would remedy that
2015-09-17 16:36:28 fib1618: or...
2015-09-17 16:36:38 fib1618: if the NYSE Composite components are leading in this area
2015-09-17 16:36:43 fib1618: so let's see how they're doing
2015-09-17 16:37:05 fib1618: and we pretty much has the same situation there
2015-09-17 16:37:17 fib1618: however
2015-09-17 16:37:40 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO is still falling behind the CO data in amplitude
2015-09-17 16:37:49 fib1618: having only reached the +50 level today
2015-09-17 16:38:07 fib1618: this lack of leadership by the broad market
2015-09-17 16:38:16 fib1618: and especially that of the interest rate sensitive issues
2015-09-17 16:38:21 rite01: Yes
2015-09-17 16:38:33 fib1618: continues to flash a caution sign toward the market in general
2015-09-17 16:38:41 fib1618: but at the same time
2015-09-17 16:39:24 fib1618: we have now improved enough to where our signal of last week that the August lows were likely to hold moving forward is carrying a heavier weighting
2015-09-17 16:39:44 rite01: + divergent day for MCO means
2015-09-17 16:40:03 fib1618: let's also note that today's reading of +53 is higher than that of the mid July peak
2015-09-17 16:40:44 fib1618: so, in essence, we now have enough of a push in money toward the buy side where any downside trend in prices is likely to be violated sooner than later
2015-09-17 16:41:08 fib1618: well...the NYSE Composite did not pullback
2015-09-17 16:41:12 fib1618: but the CO did
2015-09-17 16:41:44 fib1618: so I guess we can go with the idea that there was better buying into these same interest rate sensitive issues today than that of the commons
2015-09-17 16:42:07 fib1618: and that should translate to a better overall condition for the market moving forward IF we see this continue
2015-09-17 16:42:34 rite01: with the XLF down big today?
2015-09-17 16:42:46 fib1618: the zero line bounce on the breadth MCO's we also got on Tuesday was telling us that our blueprint from last week was being trashed
2015-09-17 16:43:16 fib1618: and all we needed was for Wednesday to see some follow through and we can call the symmetrical triangle breakout as being "the real thing"
2015-09-17 16:43:20 fib1618: and we got that as well
2015-09-17 16:43:26 fib1618: again...remember
2015-09-17 16:43:43 fib1618: we had some very high TRIN numbers prior to all this bottoming action
2015-09-17 16:44:02 fib1618: and that we started to lose any upside momentum that resulted from this imbalance
2015-09-17 16:44:10 fib1618: but something changed on Tuesday
2015-09-17 16:44:28 fib1618: as big money was being put back to work
2015-09-17 16:44:37 fib1618: first in the way of covering short positions
2015-09-17 16:44:45 fib1618: and since we saw follow through
2015-09-17 16:44:59 fib1618: we probably got the fresh buying that was needed to carry this forward
2015-09-17 16:45:13 fib1618: hopefully we'll get the data to support this thesis as we move along
2015-09-17 16:48:05 fib1618: in any event
2015-09-17 16:48:46 fib1618: you can see the scope of the tremendous amount of money moving in now on the close up 21 day chart of the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-09-17 16:48:54 fib1618: and as we touched upon on Tuesday
2015-09-17 16:49:05 fib1618: that must be respected for what it implies
2015-09-17 16:49:30 fib1618: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-09-17 16:49:46 fib1618: with a current reading of +50
2015-09-17 16:49:55 fib1618: so about the same level as the NYSE Composite
2015-09-17 16:50:20 fib1618: but when we look at the NASDAQ Components
2015-09-17 16:50:36 fib1618: we don't have our ideal confirmation of these current MCO highs
2015-09-17 16:50:58 fib1618: so, technically, we remain in a corrective sequence
2015-09-17 16:51:10 fib1618: which would also mean...a bear market rally
2015-09-17 16:51:30 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2015-09-17 16:51:57 fib1618: and applying a line connecting the March and July price bottoms
2015-09-17 16:52:20 fib1618: and we see that the intraday price reversal took place on the completion of the snapback to this line or previous support
2015-09-17 16:52:35 fib1618: so...we're minimally "overbought" now on this MCO
2015-09-17 16:52:43 fib1618: found snapback resistance
2015-09-17 16:53:10 fib1618: and wound up with a simple reversal price bar
2015-09-17 16:53:25 fib1618: some would call a point of exhaustion
2015-09-17 16:53:29 fib1618: and intraday today
2015-09-17 16:53:39 fib1618: we saw that happen pretty much after the Fed statement
2015-09-17 16:53:48 fib1618: as the market held around unchanged
2015-09-17 16:53:55 fib1618: moved slightly negative
2015-09-17 16:54:04 fib1618: and then reversed to unchanged
2015-09-17 16:54:15 fib1618: and if were holding a short position at that stage
2015-09-17 16:54:28 fib1618: you KNOW that it's time so say "see you later"
2015-09-17 16:54:34 fib1618: and zoom...up we went
2015-09-17 16:54:42 fib1618: and once that exhausted itself
2015-09-17 16:54:59 fib1618: the vacuum that was created by this "too far, too fast" sequence was quickly filled
2015-09-17 16:55:28 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM again
2015-09-17 16:55:40 fib1618: and we're about to also move back above the -500 level
2015-09-17 16:55:47 fib1618: and at the same time
2015-09-17 16:56:12 fib1618: we took out the horizontal highs of mid August right before the plug was pulled
2015-09-17 16:56:21 fib1618: so...overall...very constructive
2015-09-17 16:56:33 fib1618: but there's still work to do before the buyers can breath easier
2015-09-17 16:56:37 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2015-09-17 16:56:54 fib1618: and here we peaked out on Wednesday at a +85
2015-09-17 16:57:18 fib1618: so we moved to highly "overbought" before pulling back a bit today
2015-09-17 16:57:30 fib1618: so far...looks like a blow off as we suspected on Tuesday
2015-09-17 16:58:06 fib1618: but with the NDX breadth MCO and components both above their zero lines
2015-09-17 16:58:42 fib1618: what is likely to happen is that we'll now see a snapback to test the line of the breakout we saw on Tuesday of the symmetrical triangle
2015-09-17 16:58:54 fib1618: and then another attempt to add on to the last couple of days of action
2015-09-17 16:59:14 fib1618: that gives us a downside play of around 4325
2015-09-17 16:59:33 fib1618: or about 60 points from here
2015-09-17 16:59:43 fib1618: and we would still be in a bullish configuration of sorts
2015-09-17 16:59:57 fib1618: curious on how prices reacted with the EMA's
2015-09-17 16:59:58 fib1618: let me bring up a chart so I can look at it
2015-09-17 17:00:45 fib1618: well...the NDX actually moved above the last of its EMA resistance levels on the 50 day EMA today
2015-09-17 17:01:02 fib1618: and then we closed one point below this same EMA
2015-09-17 17:01:14 fib1618: so a bit of resistance is holding there
2015-09-17 17:01:18 fib1618: let me check the NASDAQ
2015-09-17 17:01:31 fib1618: same thing
2015-09-17 17:01:49 fib1618: but we closed some 13 points below the 50 day EMA
2015-09-17 17:02:04 fib1618: the 50 day EMA, remember, is our intermediate term moving average
2015-09-17 17:02:29 fib1618: so it would be this EMA that would dictate price direction for this same time period
2015-09-17 17:02:42 fib1618: so far...the short term 20 day EMA has been nicely violated
2015-09-17 17:02:49 fib1618: so the buyers have control there
2015-09-17 17:03:07 fib1618: and that's not too surprising based on the readings we've been seeing in the MCO
2015-09-17 17:03:28 fib1618: looking at the NYA
2015-09-17 17:03:34 fib1618: and we didn't come close to the 50 day EMA today
2015-09-17 17:03:54 fib1618: so we have price divergence between the two exchanges
2015-09-17 17:04:15 fib1618: and that's worth a couple of days of back and fill at the very least
2015-09-17 17:04:37 fib1618: technically though
2015-09-17 17:04:52 fib1618: until the rising bottoms lines that are controlling all of the MCO's are broken
2015-09-17 17:05:01 fib1618: we have to give a tip of the TW cap to the bulls
2015-09-17 17:05:33 fib1618: although the context of their current strength is much different than that of earlier this year when the A/D and U/D lines were rising
2015-09-17 17:06:01 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO peaked out at a +73 on Wednesday
2015-09-17 17:06:21 fib1618: but that wasn't enough to take out the highs of mid July at +77
2015-09-17 17:06:43 fib1618: looking at the EMA's here
2015-09-17 17:07:13 fib1618: and the intraday highs today were at 2020.86
2015-09-17 17:07:24 fib1618: and the 50 day EMA is at 2019.78
2015-09-17 17:07:33 fib1618: so once again there's your resistance
2015-09-17 17:07:51 fib1618: we also closed below yesterday's settlement
2015-09-17 17:08:01 fib1618: and that usually means we have another down close coming
2015-09-17 17:08:21 fib1618: the 20 day EMA is at 1979.70
2015-09-17 17:08:49 fib1618: and we'll call the snapback point to the triangle at 1960
2015-09-17 17:09:04 fib1618: with the volatility still quite high here
2015-09-17 17:09:15 fib1618: we could see a quick run intraday to the snapback point
2015-09-17 17:09:24 fib1618: and then close at or near 1980
2015-09-17 17:09:29 fib1618: whew!
2015-09-17 17:09:37 fib1618: lots of action is great
2015-09-17 17:09:47 thespookyone: OH YEA
2015-09-17 17:09:49 fib1618: as long as you're nimble enough to close without hesitation
2015-09-17 17:10:03 fib1618: "hit and run"
2015-09-17 17:10:25 fib1618: again...this volatility is likely to continue for the rest of the month
2015-09-17 17:10:36 thespookyone: I've been trading options on some stocks both ways, when I sell the call, I buy the put
2015-09-17 17:10:41 fib1618: so keep this in mind as you pick and choose your spots
2015-09-17 17:10:55 fib1618: I'm too old for that these days [smile]
2015-09-17 17:11:39 fib1618: but I understand that you have to build up your utilities on your islands to make them habitable [smile]
2015-09-17 17:11:53 thespookyone: LOL
2015-09-17 17:12:00 fib1618: seriously though
2015-09-17 17:12:16 fib1618: you really need a plan and concentration with this kind of whipsawing that we're seeing
2015-09-17 17:12:38 fib1618: go in looking for 5 points...and bank
2015-09-17 17:12:45 fib1618: even if it goes to 10
2015-09-17 17:12:46 thespookyone: yes, and super quick reactions
2015-09-17 17:12:49 fib1618: and then you reverse
2015-09-17 17:12:56 fib1618: you really do
2015-09-17 17:13:02 thespookyone: yep!
2015-09-17 17:13:17 fib1618: I guess if was staring at the screen all day I would do the same thing
2015-09-17 17:13:19 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-17 17:13:26 thespookyone: you bet
2015-09-17 17:13:39 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-17 17:13:47 fib1618: nice pattern of bottoms in the MCO to work with now
2015-09-17 17:14:01 fib1618: and again I want to point out the "texture" of this pattern
2015-09-17 17:14:26 fib1618: how it tested high...tested low...and seemed to find indecision between both sides at the zero line
2015-09-17 17:14:59 fib1618: and once the zero line was successfully tested again, the buyers were able to go back to controlling direction
2015-09-17 17:15:25 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also came up short of the July highs
2015-09-17 17:15:55 fib1618: the Dow though did make a new high
2015-09-17 17:16:02 fib1618: why is this bothering me?
2015-09-17 17:16:31 fib1618: there's something not quite right here...and I can't put my finger on it
2015-09-17 17:16:48 fib1618: true...we had all the ingredients of a potential bottom before the breakout
2015-09-17 17:17:01 fib1618: and the MCO's are supporting bottoms above bottoms
2015-09-17 17:17:19 fib1618: maybe it's the lack of the 5% showing strength here (?)
2015-09-17 17:17:34 fib1618: even the BETS is back to neutral
2015-09-17 17:17:43 fib1618: something "smells"...something is not kosher
2015-09-17 17:18:20 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO moved to new 9 month highs on Wednesday
2015-09-17 17:18:23 unc1998: Could we be in a B wave?
2015-09-17 17:18:28 rite01: spidy sense?
2015-09-17 17:18:35 fib1618: and that should be enough to break above the longer term declining tops line in the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-09-17 17:18:45 fib1618: well...the B wave was the triangle
2015-09-17 17:18:49 fib1618: this would be a C
2015-09-17 17:19:02 unc1998: maybe  a (c) of B?
2015-09-17 17:19:15 fib1618: but we're getting more and more data now that this is getting closer to a 3rd wave structure
2015-09-17 17:19:24 fib1618: could be
2015-09-17 17:19:30 fib1618: "A" would peak with the MCO though
2015-09-17 17:19:48 fib1618: "B" comes out of the blue (like today
2015-09-17 17:19:55 fib1618: and then "C" divergences
2015-09-17 17:19:55 thespookyone: problem for me is, on individual stocks, I don't see the patterns as motive
2015-09-17 17:19:57 fib1618: now
2015-09-17 17:20:03 fib1618: remember
2015-09-17 17:20:09 fib1618: wave C will be 5 waves
2015-09-17 17:20:30 fib1618: and what were sharing here is a larger complex C
2015-09-17 17:20:37 unc1998: yep
2015-09-17 17:20:47 fib1618: the EMA's are showing good resistance too
2015-09-17 17:20:56 fib1618: but they are also compressing
2015-09-17 17:21:24 fib1618: back to the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-09-17 17:21:50 fib1618: and we finished today at the declining tops line connecting the July and August tops
2015-09-17 17:22:10 fib1618: sentiment at the bottoms was also pretty negative too
2015-09-17 17:22:16 fib1618: so...
2015-09-17 17:22:24 fib1618: we have to be open to the possibility that
2015-09-17 17:22:37 fib1618: the symmetrical triangle was maybe a series of 1's and 2's as well
2015-09-17 17:22:48 fib1618: but we would need to see further upside follow through by Monday to confirm this
2015-09-17 17:23:06 fib1618: this would include the following
2015-09-17 17:23:50 fib1618: prices would have to continue to slice through the 20, 50, and 200 day EMA's
2015-09-17 17:23:53 fib1618: and more importantly
2015-09-17 17:24:09 fib1618: we would need to see all of the MCO's move above Wednesday's high point
2015-09-17 17:24:13 fib1618: if we can do that
2015-09-17 17:24:26 fib1618: then we will have left behind a very important price low at the end of August
2015-09-17 17:24:38 fib1618: and that new all time price highs will be seen
2015-09-17 17:24:46 fib1618: now...
2015-09-17 17:24:59 fib1618: how IS the market going to react to "no cut" today
2015-09-17 17:25:35 fib1618: do we go back to our old ways of letting the supply of cheap money push the demand of owning stocks to new highs?
2015-09-17 17:25:37 fib1618: OR
2015-09-17 17:26:30 fib1618: does the market understand that without a rate hike means that the economy is nowhere stable enough to keep stock prices from moving higher
2015-09-17 17:26:32 fib1618: and we sell off
2015-09-17 17:26:41 fib1618: one thing we're pretty sure of now
2015-09-17 17:26:50 fib1618: is that the 8/24-8/25 lows will likely hold on any challenge
2015-09-17 17:27:37 fib1618: unless there is something unintentional happens to put the proverbial thumb on the scale
2015-09-17 17:27:46 rite01: Not stable enough is my take as well
2015-09-17 17:27:49 fib1618: in any event
2015-09-17 17:27:58 fib1618: if the BETS goes to cash this weekend
2015-09-17 17:28:02 fib1618: I won't argue
2015-09-17 17:28:27 fib1618: also keep in mind when you look at the daily chart
2015-09-17 17:29:01 fib1618: that until we break below the October 2014 price lows
2015-09-17 17:29:13 fib1618: we still have bottoms above bottoms in play here on the longer term time frame
2015-09-17 17:29:32 fib1618: we had a TRIN of over FIVE with this shake out
2015-09-17 17:29:48 fib1618: and like we talked about when this happened
2015-09-17 17:30:02 fib1618: many believe something like this would be a kick off of a bear market
2015-09-17 17:30:08 fib1618: but the opposite is usually true
2015-09-17 17:30:26 fib1618: it's sort of like when the volume MCO's move to deeply "oversold" levels
2015-09-17 17:30:58 fib1618: this tells us that the great majority have sold and we usually see very important price bottoms come out of this
2015-09-17 17:31:05 fib1618: this time seems to be no different
2015-09-17 17:31:12 fib1618: and maybe
2015-09-17 17:31:15 fib1618: just maybe
2015-09-17 17:31:26 fib1618: we have put too much emphasis on the BETS here
2015-09-17 17:31:42 fib1618: where 40% of its weighting has to do with Canadian issues
2015-09-17 17:32:14 fib1618: and they have been having a real tough time because of commodities being disseminated over the last year
2015-09-17 17:32:27 fib1618: just trying to be forthright
2015-09-17 17:32:35 fib1618: and learn from this
2015-09-17 17:32:38 fib1618: we'll see
2015-09-17 17:32:52 fib1618: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2015-09-17 17:33:05 fib1618: as it peaked out at the +67 level
2015-09-17 17:33:10 fib1618: and that's pretty high
2015-09-17 17:33:32 fib1618: in fact
2015-09-17 17:33:44 fib1618: it's the highest reading since December of 2014
2015-09-17 17:34:05 fib1618: what's bugging me here?
2015-09-17 17:34:28 fib1618: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2015-09-17 17:34:50 fib1618: but the components are not supporting the +51 reading
2015-09-17 17:34:54 fib1618: so...
2015-09-17 17:35:14 fib1618: we have a mixed picture of the breadth MCO's and their components
2015-09-17 17:35:41 fib1618: we see that the NYSE Composite, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 all at the +50 level
2015-09-17 17:35:58 fib1618: along with prices showing sharp intraday declines at the end of the day
2015-09-17 17:36:24 fib1618: the most likely outcome would be for some kind of digestion period over the next couple of days
2015-09-17 17:37:00 fib1618: with a bearish bias in an attempt to provide a technical snapback to the recent price breakouts of our triangle configurations
2015-09-17 17:37:16 fib1618: what looked suspicious on Tuesday
2015-09-17 17:37:54 fib1618: got the necessary upside follow through on Wednesday to let us know that the break to the north was the real thing
2015-09-17 17:37:58 fib1618: because of this
2015-09-17 17:38:14 fib1618: we can let off of our fully defensive posture for the time being
2015-09-17 17:38:29 fib1618: and as long as the rising bottoms lines on the breadth MCO's remain intact
2015-09-17 17:38:48 fib1618: we can hold our nose and still be selective buyers at this stage
2015-09-17 17:39:12 fib1618: while keeping very tight stops in place until we see a more uniform breakout above the EMA's on the index price charts
2015-09-17 17:39:17 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-09-17 17:39:46 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO saw resistance at +53 on Wednesday
2015-09-17 17:40:23 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO got to a +85
2015-09-17 17:40:37 fib1618: again...you can't fade something like this as not being important
2015-09-17 17:41:08 fib1618: as we suspected last week
2015-09-17 17:41:27 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO is indeed working on a complex bullish structure right now
2015-09-17 17:41:46 fib1618: and this has pushed the XLE breadth MCSUM to reach our target of -1000
2015-09-17 17:42:15 fib1618: BTW
2015-09-17 17:42:24 fib1618: I just went back and checked
2015-09-17 17:42:39 fib1618: and the OEX, Dow, MID and SML all reversed at or near their 50 day EMA's today
2015-09-17 17:42:49 fib1618: so that's the bear's line in the sand it would seem for now
2015-09-17 17:43:03 fib1618: back to the XLE
2015-09-17 17:43:21 fib1618: and we still see that the components have yet to move above their zero lines
2015-09-17 17:43:38 fib1618: so all of this is just an attempt to build a tradable bottom in this sector
2015-09-17 17:43:46 fib1618: and there's not enough here to work with on the short side either
2015-09-17 17:43:54 fib1618: so let's continue to stand aside there
2015-09-17 17:44:16 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO peaked out at a +75
2015-09-17 17:44:49 fib1618: and the XLF breadth MCSUM is now close to finishing a simple snapback up to its zero line
2015-09-17 17:45:17 fib1618: interesting to note though
2015-09-17 17:45:29 fib1618: that the price pattern has yet to move above the late August highs
2015-09-17 17:45:57 fib1618: so not a real keen situation there
2015-09-17 17:46:27 fib1618: and after throwing the XLV to the dogs last week
2015-09-17 17:46:33 fib1618: it's made a remarkable recovery
2015-09-17 17:46:55 fib1618: as we moved above the MCO zero line last Friday
2015-09-17 17:47:06 fib1618: had a successful test on Monday
2015-09-17 17:47:14 fib1618: and haven't looked back
2015-09-17 17:47:51 fib1618: could be just a snapback to what was trendline price support
2015-09-17 17:48:05 fib1618: too risky near term to make a call
2015-09-17 17:48:18 fib1618: but it's been an impressive week
2015-09-17 17:49:06 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO challenged the mid July highs on Wednesday
2015-09-17 17:49:12 fib1618: and took a break in the action today
2015-09-17 17:50:10 fib1618: still a lot of work still yet to be done before we can see the worse is behind us there
2015-09-17 17:50:30 fib1618: the XLB data looks solidly corrective
2015-09-17 17:50:41 fib1618: with the XLB breadth MCO above its zero line
2015-09-17 17:50:49 fib1618: while the components remain below theirs
2015-09-17 17:51:29 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO got to a +90 yesterday
2015-09-17 17:51:38 fib1618: that's a nice sign of strength...or short covering [smile]
2015-09-17 17:52:03 fib1618: and we moved up and through the -250 level today on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2015-09-17 17:52:46 fib1618: you have to wonder what it's going to take for speculative option buyers to stop trying to make a killing in the market on front month "out of the money" put options
2015-09-17 17:53:02 fib1618: they have to be really depressed this time around
2015-09-17 17:53:44 fib1618: and we're back to a strong buy signal again on the XLU
2015-09-17 17:54:18 fib1618: as the XLU breadth MCO, and its components, are showing good strength here
2015-09-17 17:54:27 thespookyone: there was over 550 million dollars short on those options [smile] had to hurt "a bit"
2015-09-17 17:54:36 fib1618: as we see that this support came in just below the +500 level
2015-09-17 17:54:44 fib1618: man oh man
2015-09-17 17:55:02 fib1618: and it was such a sure thing...this time for sure
2015-09-17 17:55:20 thespookyone: they kept adding, every day-it kept me honest
2015-09-17 17:55:30 fib1618: anyway
2015-09-17 17:55:47 fib1618: with the XLU breadth MCSUM now turning higher
2015-09-17 17:56:11 fib1618: there's a good probability that we'll see higher price highs above the peaks seen in mid August
2015-09-17 17:56:33 fib1618: but you know how it is...once bitten, twice shy there
2015-09-17 17:57:07 fib1618: I don't know...I would want more information on this one
2015-09-17 17:57:11 fib1618: but at the same
2015-09-17 17:57:23 fib1618: it wouldn't hurt to go long with a trailing stop either
2015-09-17 17:57:47 fib1618: so...
2015-09-17 17:57:56 fib1618: not as much of a mess as last week
2015-09-17 17:58:15 fib1618: as we're starting to get indications that a tradable bottom is coming soon...if not already
2015-09-17 17:59:01 fib1618: but there's still some...well...let's call them inconsistencies...that still need to be sorted before we can switch hats
2015-09-17 17:59:16 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's and TRIN's are doing
2015-09-17 17:59:53 fib1618: CVI's are easing off now
2015-09-17 18:00:00 fib1618: STVO's though are now "overbought"
2015-09-17 18:00:10 fib1618: VTO's are mixed to neutral
2015-09-17 18:00:35 fib1618: but having the STVO's "overbought" suggests that we have 2-3 days of back and fill coming near term
2015-09-17 18:00:58 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.76
2015-09-17 18:01:01 fib1618: hmmmm
2015-09-17 18:01:23 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2015-09-17 18:01:33 fib1618: let me check Wednesday's reading
2015-09-17 18:01:56 fib1618: .85
2015-09-17 18:02:06 fib1618: so it got mighty close to being "overbought" before today's action
2015-09-17 18:02:28 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.13
2015-09-17 18:02:43 fib1618: Open 10 at .94
2015-09-17 18:02:57 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.38
2015-09-17 18:03:07 fib1618: Open 10 at .95
2015-09-17 18:03:31 fib1618: so the Open 10's are closer to "oversold" than they are to neutral
2015-09-17 18:03:54 fib1618: and that should help in keeping prices from declining in any important way short term
2015-09-17 18:03:55 fib1618: so...
2015-09-17 18:04:08 fib1618: the market seems to have turned a corner here
2015-09-17 18:04:32 fib1618: but the lights are out on the street
2015-09-17 18:04:44 fib1618: and we're missing some clarity because of it
2015-09-17 18:05:08 fib1618: sort of like losing your glasses and trying to squint out what what's in front of you
2015-09-17 18:05:12 fib1618: for now
2015-09-17 18:05:40 fib1618: let's ease off of any bearish biases we might had at the beginning of the week
2015-09-17 18:06:24 fib1618: and take a more "balanced" altitude as we look for continued improvement over the next few days
2015-09-17 18:06:32 fib1618: still...
2015-09-17 18:06:44 fib1618: I just can't put my finger on it
2015-09-17 18:07:06 fib1618: but I have this sense that some sort of trap is being laid
2015-09-17 18:07:12 fib1618: but once sprong
2015-09-17 18:07:24 fib1618: we should be good to go for a early October buy
2015-09-17 18:07:30 fib1618: anything else?
2015-09-17 18:08:08 fib1618: anyone have a feel here?
2015-09-17 18:08:22 thespookyone: mine mirrors yours
2015-09-17 18:08:36 fib1618: good...I'm not alone
2015-09-17 18:08:38 fib1618: [smile]
2015-09-17 18:08:42 thespookyone: nope
2015-09-17 18:08:56 fib1618: if we continue to gain strength here
2015-09-17 18:09:03 fib1618: we're going to have a powerful rally
2015-09-17 18:09:19 fib1618: as long as the FED remains accomodative
2015-09-17 18:09:24 fib1618: things should be fine
2015-09-17 18:09:27 fib1618: let's watch gold over the next few days for additional clues
2015-09-17 18:09:29 fib1618: in fact
2015-09-17 18:09:47 fib1618: that was the tip off today that there wasn't likely to be a rate hike
2015-09-17 18:09:56 fib1618: as the yellow metal rallied $20
2015-09-17 18:10:20 fib1618: and gold is our indicator as far as how much cheap money there is out there
2015-09-17 18:10:47 fib1618: can't wait for the BETS number this weekend
2015-09-17 18:11:11 fib1618: I would be very surprised if we remain neutral
2015-09-17 18:11:54 fib1618: the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line will also be something to look at this weekend
2015-09-17 18:12:06 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-09-17 18:12:12 fib1618: I'm going to go home
2015-09-17 18:12:18 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2015-09-17 18:12:23 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-09-17 18:12:24 fib1618: good night


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