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Posts: 4,868
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-09-16 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-09-16 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-09-16 16:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...are we having fun yet? [smile]
2014-09-16 16:00:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Two for two this week, so far.....
2014-09-16 16:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidations are a lot of fun...that's for sure
2014-09-16 16:01:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Yes, nice movements
2014-09-16 16:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the battle royal [smile]
2014-09-16 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-09-16 16:02:45 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I have a quick question...
2014-09-16 16:03:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: When comparing the MCO and price for potential divergence, do you look at the closing price or any intraday price?
2014-09-16 16:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always closing price...intraday can change in a minute
2014-09-16 16:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could use the cumulative TICK for intraday trading in this fashion
2014-09-16 16:04:39 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks!  I wasn't sure
2014-09-16 16:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but using the daily gives you a starting and stopping point from where you can compare
2014-09-16 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a good question
2014-09-16 16:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when trading the markets
2014-09-16 16:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter the time period
2014-09-16 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to get some sort of "plan" for that day you can only rely on what took place when all trades of the previous day were evened up
2014-09-16 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even on global basis
2014-09-16 16:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the charts we use to determine direction are daily, close only
2014-09-16 16:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so any indicators being used are also going to compliment this same time period
2014-09-16 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes in this business
2014-09-16 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can get too fine with your trading
2014-09-16 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you know what the odds are of being up or down for the day
2014-09-16 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you have a better handle on what to expect intraday
2014-09-16 16:07:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hey Fib-care to tell Hawk how you set up your tick chart [smile]
2014-09-16 16:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he's paid the price of admission...sure [smile]
2014-09-16 16:08:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-09-16 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you take the TICK or TICKQ
2014-09-16 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and apply the same component EMA's to the cumulative total of the data
2014-09-16 16:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a 19 period and 39 period EMA
2014-09-16 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can also add the 200 period EMA of a longer term feel of direction as well
2014-09-16 16:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since we know that the MCO and MCSUM are based on these two EMA's
2014-09-16 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll then be able to determine intraday money flow's direction but also its velocity
2014-09-16 16:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-09-16 16:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today
2014-09-16 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a bullish crossover between the 2 EMA's at 12:05
2014-09-16 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the cumulative pattern itself had recently broke above these two EMA's at 11:40
2014-09-16 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then was successful in its snapback at 12:05
2014-09-16 16:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that time
2014-09-16 16:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX had already rallied some 8 points
2014-09-16 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's where it becomes informative
2014-09-16 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the EMA's were in a bearish crossover during this rally
2014-09-16 16:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...I'm referring to the 5 minute time frame
2014-09-16 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that it wasn't fresh money that pushed up prices from 11:00
2014-09-16 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it had to be short covering
2014-09-16 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the direction of money flow was still negative
2014-09-16 16:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the only way prices could rise was on the cover
2014-09-16 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from sellers (on the snapback)
2014-09-16 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the buyers took over
2014-09-16 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was good for another 4-6 SPX points for the day
2014-09-16 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a day in which
2014-09-16 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were expecting daily support
2014-09-16 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the likely course was for prices to traverse back up to the upper part of the range on a daily basis
2014-09-16 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wham...bam...thank you ma'am [smile]
2014-09-16 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a typical battle between buyers and sellers
2014-09-16 16:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if the sellers were not able to keep the pressure on
2014-09-16 16:16:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great explanation, thank you
2014-09-16 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then - whoosh - the basketball moves back above the water line
2014-09-16 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all works together
2014-09-16 16:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-09-16 16:17:09 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you for that explanation
2014-09-16 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem
2014-09-16 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to slightly lower low on Monday
2014-09-16 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO found natural support at and around the -50 level and moved higher today
2014-09-16 16:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor though
2014-09-16 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we remain below the declining tops line that continues to control this MCO pattern
2014-09-16 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the components
2014-09-16 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reflex higher also allowed the 5% Trend to snapback to or towards its zero line
2014-09-16 16:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have now gotten that technical expectation out of the way
2014-09-16 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2014-09-16 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears continue to have control of things on a short term trending basis
2014-09-16 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we can see with the CO MCO
2014-09-16 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's quite a bit of downside texture to the MCO pattern
2014-09-16 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues
2014-09-16 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will continue to be vulnerable to any bearish ambushes that might pop during this time of indecision
2014-09-16 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler again to the monitor
2014-09-16 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we connect the recent July highs in the NYA
2014-09-16 16:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the last couple of days provided the technical expectation of a snapback to what was this previous overhead resistance in the pattern
2014-09-16 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch to see if today was the beginning of a resumption in the trend or was it a simple case of a market that was "oversold" and needed a relief within the boundaries of our trading range
2014-09-16 16:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-09-16 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see a very similar structure to that of the CO
2014-09-16 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, here too, we remain under the influence of a declining tops line
2014-09-16 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% component also snapping back to its zero line
2014-09-16 16:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in both cases then
2014-09-16 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM's continue to unwind from their recent high point
2014-09-16 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that divergence noted in both cases
2014-09-16 16:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have to be on guard to a classic double top formation
2014-09-16 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 10,600 acting as important support
2014-09-16 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ Composite Index
2014-09-16 16:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have also successfully tested the recent recovery high point that was made back in July
2014-09-16 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor again
2014-09-16 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connecting the lows in the price average on the 1 year daily chart
2014-09-16 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that this line intersects at around the 4475 level
2014-09-16 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can allow a bit more of back and fill short term
2014-09-16 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM turning back below its zero line
2014-09-16 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that with any test of this 4475 level that the MCSUM hold support above the -350 level or we'll be looking at more lengthy correctional process
2014-09-16 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an initial test of the 4350 level
2014-09-16 16:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NYSE breadth MCO's
2014-09-16 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO still has its challenges in front of it as it also remains below its declining tops line
2014-09-16 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if this level is taken out
2014-09-16 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will still be vulnerable until there's enough energy to drive this MCO back above top beneath top structure we see just above the MCO zero line
2014-09-16 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as today smacked of short covering...which we'll have a better idea of if it was or not when we get to the TRIN data
2014-09-16 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a nice spike low today in the NDX breadth MCO
2014-09-16 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the area in which previous support was seen back in early August
2014-09-16 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's bounce also pushed the 10% Trend back to above its zero line
2014-09-16 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the overall character of the NDX itself is far more positive than that of the broader based COMPX
2014-09-16 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see this in the both the nominal and percentage moves today between both
2014-09-16 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice reflex bounce today in the SPX breadth MCO
2014-09-16 16:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it almost was able to move back above its recent highs of last week
2014-09-16 16:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices in the SPX to move to challenge their all time highs
2014-09-16 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see this MCO take out both this high point AND settle back above its zero line
2014-09-16 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for prices to stay at new highs
2014-09-16 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then have to see this MCO move above the late August/early September MCO highs
2014-09-16 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...we will move back and stay within the range
2014-09-16 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a very good example of this idea
2014-09-16 16:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is seen in the OEX breadth MCO
2014-09-16 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it was able to settle back above its zero line today
2014-09-16 16:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2014-09-16 16:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed at the second highest price level in history
2014-09-16 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-09-16 16:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the SPX
2014-09-16 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to move above this high
2014-09-16 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stay there
2014-09-16 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see enough energy, money, conviction
2014-09-16 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to move the OEX breadth MCO above its declining "3 sisters" highs we saw take place earlier this month
2014-09-16 16:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have snapback complete on the daily OEX charts
2014-09-16 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-16 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see the large caps being the magnet where money continues to move over the last week or so
2014-09-16 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as players maintain their defensive posture
2014-09-16 16:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cream stocks...Consumer Staples...Health Care...and Utilities
2014-09-16 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I better check the sectors for sec
2014-09-16 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs in the Staples
2014-09-16 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with higher highs in the XLP MCO
2014-09-16 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price highs in the XLV
2014-09-16 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a non confirmation in the XLV breadth MCO
2014-09-16 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to be careful there
2014-09-16 16:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a rush to perceived safety doesn't necessarily means its a good move
2014-09-16 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Utilities are in a bit of drag price wise
2014-09-16 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally they have the same rhythm than that of the XLP
2014-09-16 16:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's a very definite feel here as the market has a defensive tone to its trading
2014-09-16 16:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow also almost closed at an all time high today
2014-09-16 16:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Dow breadth MCO confirmed the move higher
2014-09-16 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we've talked about earlier
2014-09-16 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices in the Dow to extend higher from here
2014-09-16 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO MUST be able to take out its early September highs
2014-09-16 16:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for without this added "thrust"
2014-09-16 16:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't be able to escape the pull of the bear market default
2014-09-16 16:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also remains under the influence of a declining tops line
2014-09-16 16:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we look at the components
2014-09-16 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that unlike the NASDAQ
2014-09-16 16:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Trend snapped back up to its zero line
2014-09-16 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% bounced off this same line of neutrality
2014-09-16 16:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would make the MID basket of stocks "intrinsically" stronger than the secondaries in general
2014-09-16 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not as strong at the NDX which has both components above its zero line
2014-09-16 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any reflex rallies we might see moving forward
2014-09-16 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would see greater amplitude in the NDX than, let's say, the MID
2014-09-16 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID would see more than, let's say, the NASDAQ composite
2014-09-16 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why our focus for an index long trade was, and remains with, the QQQ
2014-09-16 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money continues to show better support for this group of stocks than in other areas
2014-09-16 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-09-16 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the data remains quite weak right now
2014-09-16 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see this translate in today's performance in prices
2014-09-16 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compared to, let's say, with the MID
2014-09-16 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we closed above Monday's intraday high today
2014-09-16 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we didn't do so with the SML
2014-09-16 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if one wanted to try to exploit any further weakness in the market from here
2014-09-16 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would do well with the Small Caps
2014-09-16 16:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this weakness though is a direct result of how traders perceive the future course of interest rates
2014-09-16 16:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would seem that many are waiting for not only Wednesday's FED statement on that
2014-09-16 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also on what might happen over in the UK with the Scottish Referendum
2014-09-16 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will probably turn out to be much ado about nothing
2014-09-16 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it makes good press
2014-09-16 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that the British Pound has already sold off by 7% going into the vote
2014-09-16 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any "bad news" has probably already been discounted
2014-09-16 17:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: focusing on the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-09-16 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we are about to move down and through the MCSUM zero line as soon as Wednesday
2014-09-16 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that can only happen on a lower MCO low in the SML to accompany it
2014-09-16 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a kind of "moment of truth" moment is upon us
2014-09-16 17:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have learned all too many times over the last 3 years
2014-09-16 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should never under estimate the underlying strength of this market and its related buoyancy
2014-09-16 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see
2014-09-16 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO also remains week
2014-09-16 17:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCO components still well below their zero lines
2014-09-16 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..actually
2014-09-16 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% is within range of a snapback to zero
2014-09-16 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to give this another day or so to see how things sort out
2014-09-16 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-16 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reflex rally relieved much of the downside momentum over the last week or so
2014-09-16 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while money continues to rotate into more defensive areas such as the high caps and usual sector defensive issues
2014-09-16 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how volume McClellan's are doing
2014-09-16 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike its breadth cousin
2014-09-16 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see the NYSE CO volume MCO holding its own
2014-09-16 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and NOT confirming the directional flow of breadth to the downside
2014-09-16 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to trend
2014-09-16 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we MUST have the trend of volume either leading, or at the very least, keeping up with breadth in this same direction
2014-09-16 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't see this as yet
2014-09-16 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate that there isn't a whole lot of sellers in the market
2014-09-16 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least the amount that would be necessary to change the direction of an advancing price pattern structure
2014-09-16 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if this remains consistent with the other indices
2014-09-16 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll be able to pretty much pin point the time window to where this whole correctional process will likely end
2014-09-16 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-09-16 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a bottom above a bottom in place
2014-09-16 17:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we look at the corresponding closing prices in this relationship
2014-09-16 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that we now have the possibility of bull divergence in place
2014-09-16 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though shallow as it is
2014-09-16 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will now need to take out both the reaction highs of last week
2014-09-16 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the blip resistance area seen just above the MCO zero line to confirm the wash out
2014-09-16 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we get to the NYSE Composite Volume MCO
2014-09-16 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see a lower low
2014-09-16 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the CO and the Composite we're pretty much misfiring right now
2014-09-16 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the NYSE volume MCO remains divergent with the velocity we saw with the breadth side of the equation
2014-09-16 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together
2014-09-16 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the selling in the current indecision pattern has been wide spread in the exchange
2014-09-16 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't much in the way of heavy selling taking place
2014-09-16 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would mean...profit taking
2014-09-16 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...standing aside
2014-09-16 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...rotating into other issues
2014-09-16 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we know so far though
2014-09-16 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it seems to be rotation
2014-09-16 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: selling also seems to be somewhat muted in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2014-09-16 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ volume MCO components and the NASDAQ volume MCSUM still nicely above their zero lines
2014-09-16 17:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ exchange is going to be the beneficiary of any kind of positive news near term
2014-09-16 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched upon last week
2014-09-16 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really for the last month
2014-09-16 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the reading in the MCSUM
2014-09-16 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more likely that prices will show surprises in the direction of these extreme readings
2014-09-16 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and show shallow pullback behavior in the opposite direction
2014-09-16 17:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the NASDAQ volume MCSUM with a reading of +914
2014-09-16 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX volume MCSUM with a reading of +1410
2014-09-16 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one do you think will have the greater bounce on any rally that we might see?
2014-09-16 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course...the NDX
2014-09-16 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no surprises there
2014-09-16 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take yesterday for example
2014-09-16 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NASDAQ finally broke down in a somewhat sympathetic move to that of the rest of the market
2014-09-16 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once the downside pressure lost its strength today
2014-09-16 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WHOOSH
2014-09-16 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX back to where it was on Friday
2014-09-16 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ...not nearly so, but close
2014-09-16 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO is now back to its zero line
2014-09-16 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side can take near term control
2014-09-16 17:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCO has moved back above its zero line now
2014-09-16 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is moving in sync with its breadth cousin
2014-09-16 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here again
2014-09-16 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take a move above the recent MCO high AND above blip resistance in order for prices to move into new high territory and STAY THERE
2014-09-16 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems we're setting up for something near term
2014-09-16 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can pick the news story on what might trigger it
2014-09-16 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at the zero line on Monday
2014-09-16 17:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw upside follow through in the Dow volume MCO today
2014-09-16 17:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still resides under the influence of its declining tops line
2014-09-16 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do note, however
2014-09-16 17:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Dow volume MCSUM did move to new highs today
2014-09-16 17:25:43 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: blip resistance?
2014-09-16 17:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the intermediate term bulls are a bit more positive than that of the short term bulls
2014-09-16 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...blip resistance
2014-09-16 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's what we call the small one day attempts by the crowd to grab control during a corrective process before the short term tide overwhelms this attempt
2014-09-16 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-09-16 17:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look again at the OEX volume MCO
2014-09-16 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see this attempt to regain control by the bulls the first week of September
2014-09-16 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "blip" higher provided no follow through
2014-09-16 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this then becomes a important turning point in the trend of money
2014-09-16 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where this failure pushed those in control from positive to negative
2014-09-16 17:28:37 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you
2014-09-16 17:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a point of exhaustion
2014-09-16 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until these small, almost non existent points, are overcome
2014-09-16 17:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who pushed back on this attempt (by the bulls) will continue to maintain their control
2014-09-16 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see how important this blip was last week as we attempted to move back to positive control
2014-09-16 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't enough to move back above this point of reversal
2014-09-16 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went again
2014-09-16 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to at least "regroup"
2014-09-16 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now a new attempt is under way
2014-09-16 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the market as a battle field
2014-09-16 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even a football field
2014-09-16 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have two sides trying to push their way into the opposition's territory
2014-09-16 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper the go
2014-09-16 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more control they have
2014-09-16 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 50 yard line is the balance point between who has "control"
2014-09-16 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing here with the zero line
2014-09-16 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bearish defense was able to hold the bullish offense at the 40
2014-09-16 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the bulls move past that
2014-09-16 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears remain dominate
2014-09-16 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no...we're not referring to the bears from Chicago [smile]
2014-09-16 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watching the stock market is like watching a sport
2014-09-16 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a war
2014-09-16 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or anything where there is competition
2014-09-16 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2014-09-16 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're just moving within a narrow range
2014-09-16 17:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but eventually
2014-09-16 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is going to break down
2014-09-16 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either the offensive or defensive lines will tell the tale
2014-09-16 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the rest of the troops will follow
2014-09-16 17:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we also have shallow snapbacks today in the MID and TM volume MCO
2014-09-16 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and TM volume MCSUM's remain high enough to were any continuing pressure by the sellers will have to be consistently maintained or prices will fill any vacuum created by trader emotionalism
2014-09-16 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-16 17:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see a mixed picture near term
2014-09-16 17:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the defensive stocks continuing to be supported both on a breadth and volume basis
2014-09-16 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while those that have lesser "value" to them remain defensive
2014-09-16 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-09-16 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the earliest that this current pause is likely to end is early next week
2014-09-16 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that we're likely to continue to chop into OPEX
2014-09-16 17:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-09-16 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the CVI strength in the large caps with the Dow, OEX and SPX shooting into positive territory today
2014-09-16 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX CVI is now back to a neutral reading after moving to a -51 reading on Monday
2014-09-16 17:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime we get a move to beyond +50 or -50 on the CVI this instructs that a near term price reversal is likely within two trading days
2014-09-16 17:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that today
2014-09-16 17:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are pretty much neutral
2014-09-16 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and VTO's are mixed now and no longer suggesting a strong uptrend
2014-09-16 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .65
2014-09-16 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any time the TRIN moves sharply below the .70 level, after we see a sell off, it usually means short covering
2014-09-16 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 is now at .88
2014-09-16 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a bigger danger right now is with the 21 day SMA of the TRIN which is now quickly moving to a fully "overbought" reading
2014-09-16 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to watch this as this would indicate that it's going to take more than just a week to correct these kinds of extremes before we'll be ready to rally again
2014-09-16 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .60
2014-09-16 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again suggesting short covering
2014-09-16 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 here is also at .88
2014-09-16 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so close to being neutral
2014-09-16 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .69
2014-09-16 17:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .87
2014-09-16 17:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-09-16 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the table is set
2014-09-16 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we move into a couple of days of news driven data
2014-09-16 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's rally was that of nervous shorts covering before this same data annoucements
2014-09-16 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when there wasn't anyone else out there to help drive prices lower from the morning levels
2014-09-16 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-09-16 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after seeing a strong sell off in the NASDAQ on Monday
2014-09-16 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-09-16 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to remain defensive overall
2014-09-16 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and try to be a little more patient as the market continues to churn...waiting for more information
2014-09-16 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-09-16 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Bollinger Bands on the volatility indexes are starting to squeeze here
2014-09-16 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a decisive move is coming sooner than later
2014-09-16 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...did you know that there are new volatility indexes?
2014-09-16 17:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I never noticed until today
2014-09-16 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides the VIX, VXO and VXN
2014-09-16 17:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have...
2014-09-16 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow - VXD
2014-09-16 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Gold - GVZ
2014-09-16 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Crude - OVX
2014-09-16 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe I'm out of touch...anyone know about these?
2014-09-16 17:53:46 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: new to me  [smile]
2014-09-16 17:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2014-09-16 17:54:19 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: btw, energy stocks had a good day today
2014-09-16 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can find the chart in the volatility area  - DPMI 1180
2014-09-16 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw that in passing
2014-09-16 17:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me bring up the XLE for a moment
2014-09-16 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nervous time there
2014-09-16 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember "hanging over the cliff" analogy from last week?
2014-09-16 17:55:46 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: mcsum trying to find support on that trend line
2014-09-16 17:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the XLE found an "one arm" branch to hang on to
2014-09-16 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now you have the XLE breadth MCO, Components, and MCSUM all at their zero line
2014-09-16 17:56:28 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: XLE CVI nearing +50...maybe tomorrow
2014-09-16 17:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a critical moment there
2014-09-16 17:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2014-09-16 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the XLE is about to move down hard
2014-09-16 17:57:03 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: [wink]
2014-09-16 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the CVI would suggest a price top in the next two trading sessions
2014-09-16 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the zero line readings
2014-09-16 17:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control on all time frames
2014-09-16 17:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2014-09-16 17:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to keep in mind that much of the broader sell off from last week was induced primarily by the energy sector
2014-09-16 17:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's consistent to see the large caps regain much of what was lost today on the back of a higher XLE
2014-09-16 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: simple trade there
2014-09-16 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short...with a stop at .10 above today's intraday highs
2014-09-16 17:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that would put it at $96.05
2014-09-16 17:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less than a .75 risk
2014-09-16 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worth a go
2014-09-16 17:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just make sure it's a hard stop
2014-09-16 18:00:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks
2014-09-16 18:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..if there's nothing else
2014-09-16 18:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-09-16 18:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-09-16 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how this all turned out on Thursday
2014-09-16 18:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-09-16 18:00:45 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you....have a great evening fib

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