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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Note: This is Tuesday, 9/16's chat...the day of the AIG buyout

2008-09-16 19:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-09-16 19:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-09-16 19:01:34 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: good, and you Dave?
2008-09-16 19:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tired
2008-09-16 19:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sick
2008-09-16 19:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and ready to go home
2008-09-16 19:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...
2008-09-16 19:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm fine
2008-09-16 19:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-16 19:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...should I go to Vegas again?
2008-09-16 19:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-16 19:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one things for sure...it's getting real exciting now
2008-09-16 19:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-09-16 19:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any word on AIG?
2008-09-16 19:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did they get their 75 Billion?
2008-09-16 19:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (he said with tongue firmly planted in his cheek)
2008-09-16 19:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: AIG trying to get what they "want" is like trying to sell a house at a specific price....TODAY!
2008-09-16 19:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: falling asleep here...anyone awake?
2008-09-16 19:06:43 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-16 19:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...what do you think Hiker?
2008-09-16 19:07:08 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: about what?
2008-09-16 19:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market - you usually have a good feel of things
2008-09-16 19:07:34 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: volume candle on SPY today surpasses Aug 2007 volume high
2008-09-16 19:07:49 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: price candle looks bullish at eod
2008-09-16 19:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, volume has been incredible
2008-09-16 19:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't tell me...a hammer?
2008-09-16 19:08:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: NYSE declines were a multi-year high yesterday
2008-09-16 19:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not too surprising given LEH
2008-09-16 19:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand that Barclay's picked at the carcass today
2008-09-16 19:09:05 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: hard to not give credit to potential selling exhaustion at major NDX, OEX, NYA, XLF, SPX major supports..till proven otherwise
2008-09-16 19:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...breadth ratio yesterday was climactic
2008-09-16 19:09:27 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes, on Barclays
2008-09-16 19:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't you love it?
2008-09-16 19:09:48 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-16 19:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I also understand that they took the capital management division and stayed away from the real estate paper
2008-09-16 19:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...is there anything specific anyone wish to key in on today?
2008-09-16 19:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is so much to talk about
2008-09-16 19:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not enough time to cover everything
2008-09-16 19:11:13 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ck out SNDK price action in ah later when you have time
2008-09-16 19:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: closed at 15 - what's it doing now?
2008-09-16 19:12:41 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: bid 22.85 SNDK now
2008-09-16 19:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hehe
2008-09-16 19:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...quite a wild week or so in the markets
2008-09-16 19:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: started out well enough, but didn't get the necessary follow through last Tuesday
2008-09-16 19:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually, from what I saw on the trade show floor, Monday's "rally" left a lot to be desired
2008-09-16 19:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now we're kicking and screaming lower
2008-09-16 19:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things that was of interest when I marked up the cumulative charts this last weekend was the lack of selling pressure that was generated last week and this continued into yesterday
2008-09-16 19:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, yesterday
2008-09-16 19:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though decliners swamped advances, trend wise, yesterday's decline wasn't as bad as one would had thought it was
2008-09-16 19:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we got all of this doom and gloom that went with yesterday's sell off
2008-09-16 19:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how the day was "historical"
2008-09-16 19:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: humbug
2008-09-16 19:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people have such short memories
2008-09-16 19:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not to take away from a 4% decline, but internally, it just wasn't as bad as advertised
2008-09-16 19:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to be quite honest, it has always been the expectation since the July lows that another shoe was sure to drop right after the Labor Day period...
2008-09-16 19:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so...here we are
2008-09-16 19:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OPEX is Friday - quadruple witch
2008-09-16 19:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the one thing in which many seem to forget is...
2008-09-16 19:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for every seller, there MUST be a buyer or there's no trade
2008-09-16 19:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so someone made some nice accumulations yesterday
2008-09-16 19:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as sure as I'm writing this, found a way to unload some of this same inventory today
2008-09-16 19:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...let's take a quick look around and see how things are shaping up keeping in mind that the ideal date for the 9 month low was last week...plus or minus 4 weeks
2008-09-16 19:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO is now flat so one side is about to take control of the action
2008-09-16 19:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the pattern itself continues to maintain a series of bottom above bottoms
2008-09-16 19:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the reaction high recently seen is taken out, we will then have bull divergence in place
2008-09-16 19:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile, the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to move net sideways with little in the way of any broad based deterioration
2008-09-16 19:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would then suggest that it's primarily a precious (weighted) few that is stimulating what could be the desired reaction in which the 9 month nesting is notorious for accomplishing
2008-09-16 19:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the lower price lows created in the NYA, we also have a quite distinctive divergence pattern being created here too with the CO breadth MCSUM
2008-09-16 19:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I wouldn't be too bearish here
2008-09-16 19:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's what the market wants you to think...breath...and then react too
2008-09-16 19:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: be careful of Trojan Horses
2008-09-16 19:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the flip side of things
2008-09-16 19:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO isn't showing the same resilience in which the commons are showing right now
2008-09-16 19:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would suggest that the interest rate sensitive issues are taking the blunt of the hit of late
2008-09-16 19:26:13 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: futures moving higher...something amiss...i have a live feed 1218
2008-09-16 19:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so being...this is your "precious few" - by and large
2008-09-16 19:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are VERY oversold here
2008-09-16 19:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VERY, VERY
2008-09-16 19:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to the point of major
2008-09-16 19:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will take several days of reflex just to relieve this condition
2008-09-16 19:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...
2008-09-16 19:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it was so easy to trade a continued move lower from here, would the market accommodate?
2008-09-16 19:27:48 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: 1221
2008-09-16 19:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look over history at other crash like events like we had on Monday
2008-09-16 19:28:25 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: oextrader...really cranking now..SPY has good ah volume too
2008-09-16 19:28:58 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: 1224
2008-09-16 19:29:35 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: 1227......
2008-09-16 19:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe AIG got the loan?
2008-09-16 19:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check the news wires
2008-09-16 19:30:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: AIG price action remains choppy in ah
2008-09-16 19:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway - when you have crash like days like yesterday, we almost always have a roller coaster ride for the next day, if not two, as traders try to outplay each other
2008-09-16 19:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so today's churn wasn't so surprising as it was expected...no matter what the FED did
2008-09-16 19:31:23 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pared losses in early evening trading on Tuesday after CNBC television reported the Federal Reserve was negotiating roughly $85 billion in financing to keep American International Group
2008-09-16 19:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-09-16 19:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's their last hope because every private firm has backed out
2008-09-16 19:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're not stupid
2008-09-16 19:31:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at Barclay's
2008-09-16 19:32:09 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 17:19 et was the time stamp on that wire
2008-09-16 19:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's far better to pick at the carcass once its dead then to negotiate with it
2008-09-16 19:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you get better buys
2008-09-16 19:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with AIG, being the 18th largest company in the world, the FED has already had a track record in keeping a business like this from going belly up
2008-09-16 19:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the sad thing though is that you and I now own the same paper that the private company already went bankrupt on
2008-09-16 19:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a good thing
2008-09-16 19:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I just LOVE the finger pointing except towards the direction of the actual culprits in all of this
2008-09-16 19:34:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fed gives 85 billion to aig
2008-09-16 19:34:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for 80% stake
2008-09-16 19:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go
2008-09-16 19:34:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its official
2008-09-16 19:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they had to
2008-09-16 19:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like I said earlier
2008-09-16 19:35:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: futs are flying
2008-09-16 19:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like you and I were trying to sell our home at a specific price - TODAY
2008-09-16 19:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: relief rally
2008-09-16 19:35:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, i don't get this
2008-09-16 19:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the spring was so tightly wound
2008-09-16 19:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in what area?
2008-09-16 19:36:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this does nothing to solve the leverage issue, every bank in every country is leveraged higher than ever before and everything they own is declining in value........aig has 5 billion market cap and a trillion dollar balance sheet
2008-09-16 19:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-16 19:36:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: same with citi
2008-09-16 19:36:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: goldman
2008-09-16 19:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: should be a domino effect - right?
2008-09-16 19:37:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: morgan
2008-09-16 19:37:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: etc.......
2008-09-16 19:37:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i would think, i dont see how it doesn't end badly
2008-09-16 19:37:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: very very badly
2008-09-16 19:37:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it has ended...
2008-09-16 19:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the point
2008-09-16 19:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-16 19:37:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the fed now owns the largest mortgage cos, largest insurance cos, bailed out a top 5 investment bank
2008-09-16 19:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key psychology behind a classic 9 month low is that there is no hope
2008-09-16 19:38:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so you think todays lows were it?
2008-09-16 19:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what did you and I talk about last month regarding the FED?
2008-09-16 19:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they already opened the door
2008-09-16 19:38:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they can't stop
2008-09-16 19:38:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ...............UNTIL they run out of money
2008-09-16 19:38:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: which seems close
2008-09-16 19:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are now there to clean up the mess of socialistic politics
2008-09-16 19:39:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you think todays lows are it?
2008-09-16 19:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they can print as much money as they want
2008-09-16 19:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-09-16 19:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: need confirmation
2008-09-16 19:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but all the signs are there
2008-09-16 19:39:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what would confirmation be
2008-09-16 19:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: despair
2008-09-16 19:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopelessness
2008-09-16 19:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no future
2008-09-16 19:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like every great bottom
2008-09-16 19:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other shoe has dropped and the white horse has again come to the rescue
2008-09-16 19:40:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if today was THE bottom, it was unimpressive
2008-09-16 19:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...
2008-09-16 19:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tough crowd
2008-09-16 19:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-16 19:40:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the white horse has come to the rescue now 8 times
2008-09-16 19:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually...yesterday would had been the climactic bottom
2008-09-16 19:40:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the 8th time is the final one?
2008-09-16 19:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably not
2008-09-16 19:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, after IndyMac we've had another 11 banks go under
2008-09-16 19:41:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and now they say 150 more by year end
2008-09-16 19:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but price bottoms don't exactly co-ordinate with fundamentals
2008-09-16 19:42:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right, but i don't see how the deleveraging is nearly done
2008-09-16 19:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: socialism doesn't work
2008-09-16 19:42:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and thats billions more
2008-09-16 19:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what the FED is doing now, will be felt later on
2008-09-16 19:42:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: alt A mortgages is a trillion right now, 16 % are 60 days late in paying
2008-09-16 19:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the bears will really get their Armageddon
2008-09-16 19:42:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats another 160 billion
2008-09-16 19:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-16 19:42:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and thats one segment
2008-09-16 19:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: understood
2008-09-16 19:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's fundamental stuff
2008-09-16 19:42:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: commercial real estate, auto loans, consumer credit
2008-09-16 19:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can get you in trouble
2008-09-16 19:43:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that hasn't happened yet
2008-09-16 19:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-16 19:43:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: I'm not speaking as a chartist at this moment, b/c i am home
2008-09-16 19:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all the things in which experts have told you to look out for
2008-09-16 19:43:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i just don't get it
2008-09-16 19:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand
2008-09-16 19:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know something
2008-09-16 19:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in the 1980's
2008-09-16 19:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the FSLIC went bust
2008-09-16 19:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and every Savings and Loan either went under or transformed into a bank
2008-09-16 19:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I thought the same thing
2008-09-16 19:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are only correcting excesses in the bigger picture
2008-09-16 19:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excesses, in this case, that were started with Greenspan
2008-09-16 19:44:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i get that, it doesn't look done yet
2008-09-16 19:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excesses that go all the way back to the New Deal
2008-09-16 19:44:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not here, europe, or asia
2008-09-16 19:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may not be
2008-09-16 19:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you might be right
2008-09-16 19:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we have a 9 month low here on the radar
2008-09-16 19:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and though it might be a 9 month, it certainly doesn't mean that we won't go to lower price lows after the 2quadrant is finished
2008-09-16 19:46:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what does that mean?
2008-09-16 19:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have steadfastly said that there was work to be done
2008-09-16 19:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 9 month low is made of 10 week quarters
2008-09-16 19:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the arc of the cycle is the end of the 20 week
2008-09-16 19:46:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whew...opening a can of worms here that I won't be able to finish
2008-09-16 19:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: suffice it to say
2008-09-16 19:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhh...I got a comparison
2008-09-16 19:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember back after 9/11
2008-09-16 19:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the market rallied for 6 or 7 months after?
2008-09-16 19:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then turned over?
2008-09-16 19:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what MIGHT happen here
2008-09-16 19:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's really too soon to say
2008-09-16 19:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like trying to find a building after its imploded
2008-09-16 19:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the dust clears, you're blind
2008-09-16 19:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's what we do know
2008-09-16 19:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: aside from cycles and divergences
2008-09-16 19:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excess liquidity finds its way into gold first, then it moves to commodities, to debt, and then finally to equities
2008-09-16 19:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have seen 3/4 of this same money flow already behind us
2008-09-16 19:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, the 30 year bond was at all time highs on the weekly and monthly charts yesterday
2008-09-16 19:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some would say..."Flight to Safety"
2008-09-16 19:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they would be partially right...
2008-09-16 19:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because this same movement of money also happens within the overall basic business cycle
2008-09-16 19:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interest rates go lower in attempt to stem the tide
2008-09-16 19:51:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: technically speaking, i could see how the last two days action was some sort of a bottom, but not the bottom, the decline we had in the stock market since October of last year, "in my opinion" will not end with action like this
2008-09-16 19:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then go low enough were there is enough cheap working capital from which companies can then begin to build inventories
2008-09-16 19:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never said "the" bottom
2008-09-16 19:52:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: perhaps like the March bottom - lasted for 2 months
2008-09-16 19:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I always find it interesting in what people look for to call a bottom
2008-09-16 19:52:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they feel worse than anyone can expect
2008-09-16 19:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes what we look for, and what we get, are two totally different things
2008-09-16 19:52:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this didn't feel that bad
2008-09-16 19:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like the July bottom
2008-09-16 19:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically, we're diverging, aren't we?
2008-09-16 19:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning less money is leaving the market while it makes lower price lows
2008-09-16 19:53:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just as bearish as everyone got yesterday, everyone is now feeling in the clear that aig is ok now b/c the fed and everyone is singing on cnbc
2008-09-16 19:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-09-16 19:53:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: listen to cnbc
2008-09-16 19:53:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they are going nuts
2008-09-16 19:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then you can bet that there's going to be another sell off...another BIGGER problem to come
2008-09-16 19:53:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they are like everyone else
2008-09-16 19:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhhh....point
2008-09-16 19:53:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: relieved that "its over"
2008-09-16 19:54:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b/c aig is saved
2008-09-16 19:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-09-16 19:54:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: no
2008-09-16 19:54:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but its what they "think" that matters
2008-09-16 19:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what if it can't reallocate its portfolio
2008-09-16 19:54:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for the short term market
2008-09-16 19:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how long will 85 billion last?
2008-09-16 19:54:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it was 40 billion on Sunday afternoon
2008-09-16 19:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a week?
2008-09-16 19:54:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and 75 billion on Sunday night
2008-09-16 19:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a lot of money
2008-09-16 19:55:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so not long
2008-09-16 19:55:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: especially when you're dealing with a trillion dollar balance sheet
2008-09-16 19:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...all I will say is this
2008-09-16 19:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: emotionally, things don't look that good
2008-09-16 19:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically, they do
2008-09-16 19:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: classic bottoms always have this kind of back drop
2008-09-16 19:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know this
2008-09-16 19:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you've been around a while
2008-09-16 19:56:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-09-16 19:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're letting others shape your opinion - not a good thing
2008-09-16 19:56:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just feels like if prices head higher here, its a pause
2008-09-16 19:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like we should had rallied two weeks ago?
2008-09-16 19:56:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: I'm not, theres two me's one technician at work, the other a dad at home
2008-09-16 19:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-16 19:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand
2008-09-16 19:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but dad has to remain stoic
2008-09-16 19:57:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats the beauty of technicals, i had the best 2 weeks trading (until today) in years
2008-09-16 19:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the worst thing that can happen is when all of the willing AND unwilling capitulate
2008-09-16 19:57:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: even though two weeks ago i was looking for a rally
2008-09-16 19:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excellent
2008-09-16 19:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you weren't married to this...good
2008-09-16 19:58:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: never get married
2008-09-16 19:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but let's look at it another way
2008-09-16 19:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we think back over history - with inflation low, the cost of energy declining, and the cost of money moving lower...
2008-09-16 19:59:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what i see is that perhaps prices got too cheap for current fundies, however, it looked that way July 15, but its not even two months and now fnm, fre, leh, mer, aig, no longer exist
2008-09-16 19:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what has been the odds on play with equities?
2008-09-16 19:59:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: higher
2008-09-16 19:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...FNM and FRE were quasi companies
2008-09-16 19:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and every one and their mother KNEW that it was just a matter of time for many, many years
2008-09-16 19:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: MER was taken over
2008-09-16 20:00:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: forced over
2008-09-16 20:00:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-16 20:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: LEH and BSC are dead
2008-09-16 20:00:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wamu, wachovia, morgan stanly, citi?
2008-09-16 20:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: partially their fault, partially outside
2008-09-16 20:00:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: all leveraged 40 to 1 or more
2008-09-16 20:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in which direction?
2008-09-16 20:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: WAMU "says" they're fine
2008-09-16 20:01:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: one last question
2008-09-16 20:01:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so did leh
2008-09-16 20:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they might be getting locked up in the whirlpool
2008-09-16 20:01:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and bsc
2008-09-16 20:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ask away
2008-09-16 20:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the meantime
2008-09-16 20:02:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: banks in good standing, the few, don't have enough cash to buy the distresses of other banks, if they don't have money, how can they lend? much less save others from falling, and with the fed spending now 85% of their balance sheet
2008-09-16 20:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you would have to ask a fundamentalist
2008-09-16 20:02:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where is all the leverage going?
2008-09-16 20:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who was buying the stocks sold off yesterday?
2008-09-16 20:03:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the fed
2008-09-16 20:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does it matter?
2008-09-16 20:03:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lol
2008-09-16 20:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does it matter?
2008-09-16 20:03:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: no
2008-09-16 20:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: onward
2008-09-16 20:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change today on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-09-16 20:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2008-09-16 20:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, the last week of sell off is still at a higher point than the previous July lows
2008-09-16 20:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the potential of bull divergence is now in place
2008-09-16 20:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the MCO itself minimally "oversold" in the process with a -50 reading yesterday
2008-09-16 20:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: confirmation of this same divergence would occur once the top seen just above the zero line is taken out
2008-09-16 20:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if this is, in fact, the 9 month bottom, the rally from this should be very robust with breadth and volume leading the way higher
2008-09-16 20:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term technical support on the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM is where we had our hesitation pattern of last month
2008-09-16 20:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for now, the technical expectation is to see the NYSE breadth MCO snapback to or towards its zero line and this is what's happening now
2008-09-16 20:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone have DEC futures up?
2008-09-16 20:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: life of contract
2008-09-16 20:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one moment...want to check something
2008-09-16 20:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: need some help here - can anyone tell me if today's volume on the December contract is the highest?
2008-09-16 20:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...just got the electronic data...it is
2008-09-16 20:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would then suggest that we had a "Key Reversal" today
2008-09-16 20:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a very rare animal
2008-09-16 20:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me see if the cash chart matches up
2008-09-16 20:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it does
2008-09-16 20:13:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: key reversal on negative breadth?
2008-09-16 20:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...so we also have the probability of a "Key Reversal" today
2008-09-16 20:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth isn't one of the components of the price bar being "key"
2008-09-16 20:14:12 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (Asian/Aust banks doing well on Asian open)
2008-09-16 20:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that the term "key reversal" is a futures related bar chart signal
2008-09-16 20:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one sec...I made a post on it.... http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=1664477
2008-09-16 20:15:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i know the meaning of key reversal, just don't see a bottom when this is the worst housing market and financial crisis in our lifetime and we never "technically" hit even a minor recession, just don't buy it
2008-09-16 20:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're getting emotional
2008-09-16 20:15:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: perhaps
2008-09-16 20:15:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just don't see it
2008-09-16 20:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not you that has to agree with it or see it
2008-09-16 20:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is the only thing you need to "see"
2008-09-16 20:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: technical analysis plays no games - there's nothing emotional about it
2008-09-16 20:16:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: market has shown me, that divergences get erased with lower prices, maybe not tomorrow
2008-09-16 20:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I doubt it
2008-09-16 20:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: make that - highly doubt it
2008-09-16 20:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, we have seen several times in the past where the market has made a bottom in September and then made it's actual price lows in October
2008-09-16 20:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look...I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you on concept, but I do have faith in the technicals
2008-09-16 20:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...I started moving long this morning
2008-09-16 20:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when ever you see the market getting trashed as it did yesterday
2008-09-16 20:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know that you're going to get some sort of reflex out of it
2008-09-16 20:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be more
2008-09-16 20:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but a reflex all the same
2008-09-16 20:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then when you look at something basic as the CO and Composite data
2008-09-16 20:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the odds increase that this reflex might turn into something more
2008-09-16 20:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all...we got just about every single thing we've been talking about for the last 2 months happening in the very same time period in which we were looking for all of this to happen
2008-09-16 20:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why not "a" bottom?
2008-09-16 20:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why not "the" bottom?
2008-09-16 20:20:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: could be, just asking you if there's a MCSUM ledge, b/c you know better than me what a ledge is, just want to know if it is or isn't
2008-09-16 20:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember the accounting scandals of 2002?
2008-09-16 20:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how can the market go higher?
2008-09-16 20:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who do we trust?
2008-09-16 20:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is this time period any different?
2008-09-16 20:21:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah
2008-09-16 20:21:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lots different
2008-09-16 20:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is what is happening now any different?
2008-09-16 20:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't agree
2008-09-16 20:21:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: about 100 times the excess
2008-09-16 20:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...that's a global consideration
2008-09-16 20:21:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: aren't we in a global market?
2008-09-16 20:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but numbers are all relative
2008-09-16 20:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are
2008-09-16 20:21:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hasn't it been the rest of the globe buying our stocks
2008-09-16 20:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at Russia
2008-09-16 20:21:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: homes, businesses??
2008-09-16 20:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and selling them because of a higher currency?
2008-09-16 20:22:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for 7 years?
2008-09-16 20:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's happened before
2008-09-16 20:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothings that much different
2008-09-16 20:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may be magnified
2008-09-16 20:22:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: higher currency? this dollar bounce was a big bounce, did not take out any resistance especially the 17 year horizontal that got reject on Thursday
2008-09-16 20:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it did move higher
2008-09-16 20:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and while it did move higher, did equities?
2008-09-16 20:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how much did the dollar rally?
2008-09-16 20:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 10%?
2008-09-16 20:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what have equities done?
2008-09-16 20:24:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not sure, have that chart at office
2008-09-16 20:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: down 10%?
2008-09-16 20:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-09-16 20:25:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: when you get a chance, i do think gold is setting up for a major advance
2008-09-16 20:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...it's finding support within the 4th wave of one lesser degree
2008-09-16 20:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but gold will not rally strongly UNTIL the credit situation is righted
2008-09-16 20:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's gold that needs to be watched more than anything else
2008-09-16 20:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember when gold collapsed in August?
2008-09-16 20:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was the warning signal of the current situation as gold is the bypass to be used when needed
2008-09-16 20:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since this same excess liquidity was required, a withdrawal was made
2008-09-16 20:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a small one...but one that would help out two financial giants
2008-09-16 20:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we didn't exactly know what was happening, but we were warned
2008-09-16 20:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any who...let's move on before I run out of time (and energy)
2008-09-16 20:31:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i was looking for gold to give the signs, it was lined up, but just as it started going, it seemed like sellers lined up in a deleveraging margin call sale
2008-09-16 20:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very possible
2008-09-16 20:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably spot on
2008-09-16 20:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the A/D data should turn first
2008-09-16 20:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so until this happens, I would keep my powder dry and observe
2008-09-16 20:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...gold generally makes rounding bottoms
2008-09-16 20:33:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like a false start
2008-09-16 20:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like we discussed last month, it will probably be October or November before gold will have enough below it to rally
2008-09-16 20:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...everything is a financial mess
2008-09-16 20:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like in 1998 with the Asian Flu
2008-09-16 20:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like in 1987
2008-09-16 20:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like in 1973
2008-09-16 20:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like in 1933
2008-09-16 20:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as far as oil is concerned, it has reached its downside "offset" objective from the March gold decline, and should now start to rally now
2008-09-16 20:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...gold forecasted a low for crude between $100 and $105 a barrel
2008-09-16 20:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then gold rallied a bit...so look for the same with oil
2008-09-16 20:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably on the back that with AIG being taken care of, consumer confidence should return
2008-09-16 20:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: guessing - but wouldn't be surprising
2008-09-16 20:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excuses are always there for the public to consume when they don't understand why
2008-09-16 20:36:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: seemed to me, that the masses were more worried about leh than aig
2008-09-16 20:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the funniest thing in the last couple of days was listening to the news reports about yesterday's sell off
2008-09-16 20:36:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that it was the people that are involved that knew that aig was a much bigger deal
2008-09-16 20:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the masses really don't give a hoot unless it effects them directly
2008-09-16 20:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a quick story
2008-09-16 20:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was at WAMU yesterday - making a deposit
2008-09-16 20:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I asked the teller, and then the branch manager - "what are they telling you guys?"
2008-09-16 20:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the teller knew nothing (the little person)
2008-09-16 20:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, she was quite surprised when I said " well, I guess the worse that can happen is that you lose your job"
2008-09-16 20:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: she knows nothing of what's going on
2008-09-16 20:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the branch manager?
2008-09-16 20:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "every thing's fine" (but she was working with an employee at the time)
2008-09-16 20:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's actually sad
2008-09-16 20:39:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i asked the same exact question at the same bank
2008-09-16 20:39:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: different state
2008-09-16 20:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same response?
2008-09-16 20:39:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and she told me how it was, she was afraid of the bank going under and/or being taken out by another firm and she was going to lose her job
2008-09-16 20:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the point is...that the average person doesn't really get into this kind of stuff like we do
2008-09-16 20:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they go about their business and believe that the government is there to bail them out
2008-09-16 20:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else are they going to do?
2008-09-16 20:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else are Florida's pension funds, and others going to do, if AIG goes belly up?
2008-09-16 20:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less individual retirement accounts
2008-09-16 20:41:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: another day, ill tell you about my best friend who is a 3rd year banker at lehman
2008-09-16 20:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fortunately for a few, we can act well before the stuff hits the fan
2008-09-16 20:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another day
2008-09-16 20:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (on the side...I moved all of my savings out of WAMU last Friday - but that's a personal preference)
2008-09-16 20:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway, back to the NASDAQ
2008-09-16 20:42:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so did my dad and his business account and everyone else i know at wamu with more than a 100k
2008-09-16 20:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we now have the potential for bull divergence in place on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2008-09-16 20:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup - and if enough move their money out, we may be talking about WAMU next week in the AIG sense
2008-09-16 20:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anytime a issue becomes a penny stock (below $5.00), that's the time to take heed
2008-09-16 20:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes though, like LEH and AIG, you don't get much of a warning
2008-09-16 20:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: LEH was at 15 a share 7 days ago, and AIG was at 25
2008-09-16 20:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is a good lesson in disciplined stops
2008-09-16 20:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you just never know
2008-09-16 20:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with this potential divergence, we now have what some call a "W" bottom in place
2008-09-16 20:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also known as a "triple bottom"
2008-09-16 20:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still...we need follow though
2008-09-16 20:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we still need to wait for confirmation of this same divergence
2008-09-16 20:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's knowing things like this that can keep you ahead of everyone else
2008-09-16 20:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially when everyone else is still looking the other way
2008-09-16 20:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCO and here have double bull divergence building
2008-09-16 20:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a move above the zero line would confirm this same positive structure
2008-09-16 20:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and should be bought
2008-09-16 20:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the price pattern here is also supporting a potential double bottom as well
2008-09-16 20:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO is now back to its zero line
2008-09-16 20:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can see how the bulls have been holding their own at the -25 level
2008-09-16 20:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the bulls can now move briskly back above the zero line with this same support structure in place, this would be worth a buy as well
2008-09-16 20:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this also tells us that there's not a whole lot of selling going on here
2008-09-16 20:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more so it's happening in a handful of highly weighted stocks
2008-09-16 20:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: AIG being one
2008-09-16 20:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: LEH being another
2008-09-16 20:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (the sad thing is I was wondering which company was going to replace AIG - which still might happen if it doesn't get back above $10 quickly)
2008-09-16 20:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the OEX breadth MCO, and we see bottoms above bottoms continuing to control the pattern there
2008-09-16 20:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wonder how many are thinking that the whole market is coming apart?
2008-09-16 20:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure doesn't look like it from here
2008-09-16 20:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it does "feel" like it, doesn't it?
2008-09-16 20:53:47 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: is the choppy McSum a concern
2008-09-16 20:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms on the Dow breadth MCO
2008-09-16 20:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...it is a concern
2008-09-16 20:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time
2008-09-16 20:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with all of the bad news of late
2008-09-16 20:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the selling pressure that has gone along with it
2008-09-16 20:54:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: death by a thousand cuts
2008-09-16 20:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the case of the Dow breadth MCSUM, it continues to move HIGHER
2008-09-16 20:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not lower
2008-09-16 20:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not confirming
2008-09-16 20:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...we're watching money flow
2008-09-16 20:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more money than any of us will ever have access too
2008-09-16 20:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it does say something when something like the MCSUM can continue to move higher in the face of a 10% price decline
2008-09-16 20:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't it?
2008-09-16 20:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shouldn't it?
2008-09-16 20:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's all in the weighting
2008-09-16 20:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and meanwhile
2008-09-16 20:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: jumping to the SML breadth MCSUM
2008-09-16 20:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's still above its zero line!
2008-09-16 20:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the bears showing no control whatsoever
2008-09-16 20:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: slight of hand?
2008-09-16 20:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making everyone look one way while the real story is over yonder?
2008-09-16 20:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure smells like a classic 9 month low to me
2008-09-16 20:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the characteristics of one are fully on the table
2008-09-16 20:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we even got our near test of the lows of the XLF and held there too
2008-09-16 20:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLP near all time highs
2008-09-16 20:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not that everything is hunky dory
2008-09-16 20:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's whispers like this within the shouting that need to be paid attention to
2008-09-16 20:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many MCO's are at their zero lines now
2008-09-16 21:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and many of the declining structures on the MCO over the last week have been that of zig zag affairs
2008-09-16 21:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: showing again the lack of conviction by the bears
2008-09-16 21:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this market looks to be completely washed out now
2008-09-16 21:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the wet towel has been wrung out of all of its moisture, so if you're short, take care
2008-09-16 21:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are neutral
2008-09-16 21:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's are just below neutral
2008-09-16 21:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are just above neutral
2008-09-16 21:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we have near term indecision here
2008-09-16 21:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is what the MCO zero line also conveys
2008-09-16 21:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .46
2008-09-16 21:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short covering
2008-09-16 21:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .87
2008-09-16 21:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not a time to go all in...yet
2008-09-16 21:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .66
2008-09-16 21:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 now at 1.10
2008-09-16 21:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it really got extreme last week, didn't it?
2008-09-16 21:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 got up to a 1.55
2008-09-16 21:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .48
2008-09-16 21:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .97
2008-09-16 21:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after reaching a level of around 1.35
2008-09-16 21:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's look for a reflex rally for now
2008-09-16 21:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and see if the market can build on this
2008-09-16 21:06:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: one last thing for ya dave, today was almost to the penny a 50% retracement on the spx from 2002 lows to 2007 highs
2008-09-16 21:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are in the window of the 9 month low and the sentiment is ripe for a bottom
2008-09-16 21:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to the penny? nice
2008-09-16 21:06:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: almost
2008-09-16 21:07:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like a buck
2008-09-16 21:07:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on 1100, thats almost to the penny
2008-09-16 21:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I think we're close to reaching the Head and shoulders target on the XAX too...let me check
2008-09-16 21:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XAX is close...low today was 1800
2008-09-16 21:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with price objectives like this one, I like to use a + or - variance of 2%
2008-09-16 21:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so 1785 would be in this window
2008-09-16 21:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price objectives being met
2008-09-16 21:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoming patterns abound with divergences building
2008-09-16 21:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the US will no longer exist
2008-09-16 21:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: smells like a bottom to me
2008-09-16 21:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-09-16 21:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it always looks the bleakest at the lows
2008-09-16 21:10:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where you moving? I'm going to Mexico, currency goes further there
2008-09-16 21:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: adios!
2008-09-16 21:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm accumulating now
2008-09-16 21:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: started this morning
2008-09-16 21:11:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what percent invested are you?
2008-09-16 21:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...ummmm....maybe - oh I don't know...20%?
2008-09-16 21:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't look at that way
2008-09-16 21:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I have different trading accounts
2008-09-16 21:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this particular account is that of an intermediate term bias
2008-09-16 21:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my play account is on hold, as are my cores
2008-09-16 21:12:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: accumulating has different meanings to different people
2008-09-16 21:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...it certainly does
2008-09-16 21:12:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: some that means 1 percent , other half
2008-09-16 21:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw...1% is nothing
2008-09-16 21:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you do have to trade to your level of experience
2008-09-16 21:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...yesterday smacked of a bottom
2008-09-16 21:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...it screamed it to me
2008-09-16 21:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I still don't have confirmation...that's why the low percentage amount
2008-09-16 21:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I only have a 50/50 chance of being right
2008-09-16 21:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopefully that will increase in the coming days
2008-09-16 21:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else
2008-09-16 21:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going home and get into bed
2008-09-16 21:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hate summer flus
2008-09-16 21:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-09-16 21:15:06 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: well, FED bot 80% of AIG for 85B, so what's left to worry about?
2008-09-16 21:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat on Thursday
2008-09-16 21:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's always something to worry about...
2008-09-16 21:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-09-16 21:15:36 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (tongue in cheek)



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